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 Post subject: June 15th Friday 2012 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +13.80
PostPosted: Fri Jun 15, 2012 9:59 pm 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)

Attachment:
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click on the above image to view today's performance verification

Price Action Trade Performance for Today: +13.80 points or $1380 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, all trades were posted real-time in the free #FuturesTrades chat room. You can read today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs for details (e.g. time, price, contract size) about each one of my trades from entry to exit along with price action commentary as the trade traversed in comparison to what's shown in the above image...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=105&t=1248.

To join our free chat room...log-in instructions located at a different forum @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=630

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my price action trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our price action trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=162&t=1492

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Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/IMF actions or any important global economic events that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables (key market events) causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that results in swing points and strong continuation price actions. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for my technical analysis. Just as important, these summaries becomes my archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past...something I can not get from my broker statements alone.

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Market Update

4:25 pm : Coming off of its best week of 2012, the S&P 500 tacked on another 1.3% this week. Precarious conditions of Europe remained in focus, but so were economic data, weekend elections in Greece, and an upcoming Fed meeting.

Trade this past week opened in pessimistic fashion as market participants dropped the stock market for a loss of more than 1% upon considering that Spain’s request for $125 billion to shore up its banks might be too little, too late. In fact, Banco Santander had its rating cut by analysts at Fitch, while analysts at Moody’s downgraded Spain’s rating. The yield on the country’s 10-year Note went on to climb to a record high above 7.0% before easing back by the end of the week.

Market participants made note of a bailout request by Cyprus on Tuesday, but were less concerned about the country’s problems than those with larger economies – the Cyprus economy accounts for only 0.2% of eurozone GDP. Buyers eventually made their way back into the fold. Stocks benefited further from a late squeeze that helped the broad market settle at a session high with a gain greater than 1%.

Amid a dearth of corporate announcements Texas Instruments (TXN 27.86, +0.13) attracted positive attention for narrowing its earnings forecast to range from $0.38 to $0.42 per share after it had previously forecasted earnings of $0.36 to $0.44 per share.

In midweek trade stocks rolled over to suffer sizable losses. Financials had offered leadership as JPMorgan Chase (JPM 35.03, +0.38) CEO Jamie Dimon stated in a testimony to the Senate Banking Committee that he expects the bank to be solidly profitable in the current quarter, and that progress has already been made in reducing risk following the firm’s massive trading loss that received so much attention several weeks ago.

Prior to the stock market’s downturn participants had also attempted to shrug off lackluster retail sales, which declined during May by 0.2% when a 0.1% decline had been broadly expected. Excluding autos, retail sales declined by 0.4%, which contrasts with a Briefing.com consensus that called for no change. Prior month numbers were revised downward so that overall retail sales declined by 0.2% and sales less autos declined by 0.3%.

Producer price data for May featured a 1.0% increase in overall producer prices and a 0.2% increase in core producer prices. The Brieifng.com consensus called for a 0.7% decline in overall prices and a 0.2% increase in core producer prices. Consumer price data came the next day. Overall consumer prices declined during May by 0.3%, while core prices increased by 0.2%. Economists polled by Briefing.com had expected, on average, a decline in overall prices of 0.2%, but an increase in core prices of 0.1%.

Also out on Thursday was the latest weekly initial jobless claims count, which increased to 386,000 from 380,000 when a tally of 375,000 initial claims had been expected, on average, among economists polled by Briefing.com.

Despite the generally underwhelming nature of the data, sentiment strengthened as participants regarded it as possible fodder for the Fed to take accommodative action when it meets next week. Stocks were also helped by headlines purporting that central banks will respond with a coordinated effort, if necessary, after political elections are held in Greece this coming weekend. Those themes helped drive the stock market to a gain on the order of 1%.

In the face of broad market strength sharp losses were suffered by Nokia (NOK 2.48, +0.13) and Credit Suisse (CS 18.88, +0.91). Shares of the former plummeted in response to the company’s pessimistic profitability forecast, while the latter was hurt by concerns that the firm will move to raise new capital at the urging of officials.

The idea that disappointing data will help encourage the Fed to enact another round of quantitative easing remained a theme in the final session of the week. Short covering likely helped push the stock market up 1% to a one-month high, while the dollar declined to a three-week low.

The Empire Manufacturing Survey for June fell to 2.3 from 17.1 in the prior month. Many had expected the Survey to ease down to just 13.5. Also in play was the University of Michigan’s preliminary survey of consumer sentiment for June. The Survey fell to 74.1 from the 79.3, though it had been expected to come in closer to 77.0.

For most of the session Tech stocks provided leadership after a lackluster display in the prior session. As a group, Tech stocks scored a 1.4% gain. That was matched by Financials, which had traded with only a middling gain for most of the morning and early afternoon. The biggest bounce was booked by Energy, though; the sector rallied 1.8%.

Telecom stocks were at the opposite end of the spectrum. The defensive-oriented sector settled with a 0.1% gain.

The dollar had actually traded with moderate strength overnight, but ultimately drifted into the red so that by the stock market’s closing bell it was down about 0.6% against a basket of major foreign currencies. For the week the dollar declined more than 1%.

The dollar’s decline on Friday was largely due to a stronger yen, such that the dollar-yen exchange rate fell 0.9% to about 78.7. The sterling pound also garnered buying interest; it advanced 1.0% to $1.57. The euro was up solidly overnight, but pulled back so that it was flat for most of Friday. By the closing bell it was up 0.2% to about $1.27.

The expiration of quarterly options drove share volume on the NYSE to far above average daily volume trends for the past several months.

Although participants displayed an increased tolerance for risk, Treasuries still benefited from healthy demand. In turn, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note moved back below 1.60%.

Gold also gained. The yellow metal pushed up about 0.5% to a little more than $1628 per ounce. For the week it advanced more than 2%.

Crude oil prices oscillated on Friday before they settled with an incremental gain only pennies above $84 per barrel. The energy component's price slipped by only pennies from the prior week. As an aside, OPEC announced earlier this week that it plans to keep daily oil production at 30 million barrels. DJ30 +115.26 NASDAQ +36.47 NQ100 +1.2% R2K +1.2% SP400 +1.0% SP500 +13.74 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1683/1.95 bln/782 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2052/1.37 bln/946

3:30 pm : Crude oil climbed to a pit session high of $84.37 per barrel in morning action, but gave back its gain by falling into negative territory to notch a session low of $83.42 per barrel. However, the energy component found buying support in afternoon floor trade and climbed out of the red to settle the session with a fractional gain at $84.03 per barrel. For the week it fell only fractionally. Natural gas prices chopped around in negative territory for the majority of floor trade, dipping to a session low of $2.45 per MMBtu moments before finishing at $2.47 per MMBtu. Its 7.4% weekly gain is owed to a surge on Thursday that was brought about by bullish inventory data.

Precious metals traded in positive territory for all of pit trade. A weaker dollar helped. Gold came off its session low of $1620.40 per ounce and traded up to a session high of $1633.40 per ounce before settling the week 2.3% higher at $1628.20 per ounce. Silver set a session low of $28.48 per ounce in morning action, but traded higher to close at $28.73 per ounce, or just below its session high of $28.75 per ounce, for a weekly gain of 0.9%. DJ30 +91.50 NASDAQ +30.22 SP500 +10.71 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1580/1.19 bln/850 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1990/725 mln/1000

3:00 pm : Stocks are just shy of session highs as trade enters its final hour of the session, and the week for that matter. As things currently stand, the S&P 500 is positioned for a 1.0% weekly gain, which would come on top of the 3.7% gain that was achieved during the course of trade last week. Last week's performance was actually the best for the S&P 500 since December.DJ30 +85.18 NASDAQ +27.33 SP500 +9.61 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1600/1.12 bln/805 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2010/700 mln/980

2:30 pm : All three major equity averages are at new session highs. Financials have helped provide a lift to the rest of the market. The sector had traded with only a middling gain for most of the morning and early afternoon, but has since run up to a 1.0% gain, which puts it in line with Energy and only narrowly behind Tech and Materials.DJ30 +85.85 NASDAQ +26.65 SP500 +9.65 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1445/1.04 bln/935 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1895/670 mln/1085

2:00 pm : The major equity averages remain near session highs with strong gains. In contrast to the prior session, the Nasdaq has a modest lead over its counterparts as Tech stocks attract renewed buying interest, such that the sector has put together a 1.0% gain. Tech stocks only trail the Materials sector, which is up 1.1%DJ30 +77.53 NASDAQ +23.82 SP500 +8.69 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1445/970 mln/930 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1850/640 mln/1115

1:30 pm : The benchmark 10-year Note is up by half of a point. That's kept its yield narrowly beneath 1.60%. Strength in Treasuries comes in the face of solid gains by the stock market, which remains supported by the notion proactivity on the part of the world's leading central banks also extends to the Fed.DJ30 +73.65 NASDAQ +21.03 SP500 +7.81 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1450/900 mln/900 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1880/615 mln/1080

1:00 pm : Stocks are off of session highs, but gains remain solid as market participants take a position ahead of weekend elections in Greece and next week's Fed meeting.

Although the move was only modest this morning, the major equity averages have extended the prior session's advance, which was helped along by headlines purporting that central banks have been proactive in preparing for the possible need for a coordinated effort in the wake of weekend elections in Greece. Traders have also regarded a couple of doses of disappointing data as fodder for the fed to take accommodative action when it meets next week.

The latest Empire Manufacturing Survey fell to 2.3 from the prior month reading of 17.1, missing the 13.5 that had been generally expected. Separately, the latest survey on consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan came in at 74.1, which is down from the 79.3 that was posted in the prior month, and less than the reading of 77.0 that had been widely expected.

An increased tolerance for risk and the notion that the Fed may act has resulted in selling against the dollar, which is now down about 0.5% against a basket of major foreign currencies. Most of the dollar's decline is due to strength in the sterling pound and Japanese yen.

Treasuries have attracted strong buying interest in the face of the stock market's advance, such that the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note is now back below 1.60%.

Share volume remains robust as participants exercise options before their expiration today. Some 600 million shares have already traded hands on the NYSE today. DJ30 +54.75 NASDAQ +20.25 SP500 +6.81 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1360/845 mln/970 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1750/600 mln/1205

12:30 pm : The pace of trade has slowed since a barrage at the beginning of the session. Today's increased share volume comes in conjunction with the expiration of quarterly options. Share volume on the NYSE has already exceeded a half billion shares; average daily volume on the NYSE has averaged considerably less than 1 billion shares for several months.DJ30 +54.56 NASDAQ +18.78 SP500 +6.67 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1405/770 mln/895 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1840/575 mln/1085

12:00 pm : The dollar is down to its lowest level of the day, wrestling with a loss of 0.4% relative to a basket of major foreign currencies. Most of the dollar's decline is due to strength the yen, which has rallied hard enough to drop the dollar-yen exchange rate by 0.9% to 78.65. The sterling pound is also in strong shape as it sports a 0.6% gain at $1.56, but the euro is unchanged at $1.26.DJ30 +66.48 NASDAQ +19.97 SP500 +7.63 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1415/690 mln/860 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1885/545 mln/1020

11:30 am : Stocks have worked their way up to new session highs. Buying has been broad based, but defensive-oriented issues are showing less strength. Limited interest in Telecom, Utilities, and Consumer Staples has those sectors up just 0.2% to 0.3%. Meanwhile, Tech stocks and Materials stocks are up 0.9% and 1.0%, respectively.DJ30 +73.01 NASDAQ +22.14 SP500 +8.85 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1365/600 mln/880 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1830/510 mln/1010

11:00 am : Financials recently fell into negative territory, but they have managed to rebound out of the red, resulting in a 0.3% gain for the sector. Among Financials, Citigroup (C 27.32, -0.59) has been a drag, but CBRE Group (CBG 16.31, +0.43) and Ameriprise (AMP 48.98, +1.06) have been sources of strength.

Tech had a quiet session yesterday, but in the latest round of action the sector has traded up to a 0.8% gain. Oracle (ORCL 27.46, +0.55) and Microsoft (MSFT 29.83, +0.49) have been primary leaders in the space. DJ30 +69.63 NASDAQ +19.14 SP500 +7.96 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1145/515 mln/1050 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1640/480 mln/1150

10:30 am : Crude oil prices are currently up 0.3% to $84.10 per barrel in what has been a relatively choppy morning for the energy component. Meanwhile, natural gas prices have retreated from a narrow gain in the early going to trade with a 1.1% loss at $2.47 per MMBtu.

Precious metals are up with help from a weaker dollar, which was last quoted with a 0.3% loss against a basket of major foreign currencies. Gold prices are now up 0.7% to $1630 per ounce, but still a few dollar shy of its session high. Silver prices now sport a 1.0% gain at $28.68 per ounce, but remain below their session high slightly above $28.80 per ounce. DJ30 +51.42 NASDAQ +13.24 SP500 +5.69 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1190/405 mln/935 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1810/440 mln/930

10:00 am : Stocks are pushing higher despite a disappointing survey on consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan. The preliminary Survey for June came in at 74.1, which is down from the 79.3 that was posted in the prior month, and less than the reading of 77.0 that had been widely expected.

Although the data was worse than what had been expected, many market participants regard lackluster and underwhelming data as fodder for the Fed to take accommodative action when it meets next week. With that in mind, the dollar is down to a session low, where it is wrestling with a 0.3%. DJ30 +79.46 NASDAQ +1.17 SP500 +8.05 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 845/245 mln/1150 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1465/385 mln/1165

09:45 am : Stocks are chopping around with modest gains. As was the case in the prior session, leadership is generally lacking in the early going.

Outside of equities, commodities are mostly mixed, resulting in a gain of only 0.1% for the CRB Index. Week to date the CRB is down 0.2%.

As for the greenback, it continues to trail a collection of competing currencies by about 0.2%. It is down 0.8% for the week. DJ30 +53.32 NASDAQ +5.29 SP500 +4.41 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +5.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +5.00. Stock futures are trying to maintain a modest lead over fair value. The relatively tepid tone comes after stocks experienced three separate swings in excess of 1% in the past four sessions. Despite that, the stock market is up less than 0.3% week to date. Volatility experienced in recent sessions could be further perpetuated by the expiration of quarterly options. Quarterly options activity will almost certainly inflate share volume.

There hasn't been much in the way of corporate news to trade on, but earlier this morning market participants were dealt a disappointing Empire Manufacturing Survey for June. Just released, industrial production declined during May by 0.1%, which contrasts with the 0.1% increase that had been widely expected to follow the 1.0% increase experienced in the prior month. Capacity utilization hit 79.0%, which is on par with what had been widely expected and down only incrementally from the prior month. Still to come is a preliminary monthly survey on consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan; it is due at 9:55 AM ET.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +3.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.20. Crude oil prices were up to almost $84.80 per barrel overnight, but in early pit trade the energy component is down to $83.80 per barrel for a 0.1% loss. Natural gas prices rallied aggressively in the prior session, but enthusiasm has waned so that prices are now at $2.63 per MMBtu, which makes for a modest gain of 0.2%. Precious metals are up with gold sitting on a 0.3% gain at $1625 per ounce. Less than an hour ago it pushed past $1635 per ounce amid a recent pullback by the greenback. As for silver, it is up 0.9% to $28.65 per ounce after it had been up to about $28.80 per ounce for a morning high.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +5.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +7.20. Stock futures made only a modest downtick in response to a disappointing Empire Manufacturing Survey. The Survey for June registered a reading of 2.3, which is down sharply from the prior month reading of 17.1. Economists polled by Briefing.com had expected, on average, that the Survey would slip to just 13.5. Shortly before the Survey's release the dollar began a downturn that has left it trailing a collection of competing currencies. The dollar's decline has helped gold prices push higher; the yellow metal was recently quoted with a 0.7% gain at $1631 per ounce.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +5.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +5.00. Broad market futures are up only modestly after stocks scored strong gains in the prior session with help from headlines that suggested central banks stand ready to respond in a coordinated effort, if necessary, following elections in Greece this weekend. That news has helped Europe's bourses today, but the euro is back in the red with a 0.2% loss against the greenback. Corporate news flow is light today, but participants get a few doses of economic data beginning with the Empire Manufacturing Survey at 8:30 AM ET. Industrial production and capacity utilization figures will be released at 9:15 AM ET. The preliminary monthly reading on consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan will be posted at 9:55 AM ET. The expiration of quarterly options today will likely inflate share volume. It also has the potential to increase volatility.

06:20 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +7.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +9.00.

06:20 am : Nikkei...8569.32...+0.40...0.00. Hang Seng...19233.94...+425.50...+2.30%.

06:20 am : FTSE...5504.88...+37.80...+0.70%. DAX...6202.54...+63.90...+1.00%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader, http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader and http://chart.ly/users/wrbtrader

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