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 Post subject: June 8th Friday 2012 Emini TF (No Trades Personal Day Off)
PostPosted: Fri Jun 08, 2012 11:33 pm 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)

Quote:
No trades today for me due to personal reasons involving my family. Yet, I did leave the computer on to record market analysis and real-time trades posted by other members of the chat room (see info below).

Price Action Trade Performance for Today: +0.00 points or $0 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, all trades were posted real-time in the free #FuturesTrades chat room. You can read today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs for details (e.g. time, price, contract size) about each one of my trades from entry to exit along with price action commentary as the trade traversed in comparison to what's shown in the above image...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=105&t=1242.

To join our free chat room...log-in instructions located at a different forum @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=630

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my price action trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our price action trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=162&t=1492

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Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/IMF actions or any important global economic events that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables (key market events) causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that results in swing points and strong continuation price actions. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for my technical analysis. Just as important, these summaries becomes my archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past...something I can not get from my broker statements alone.

Stocks: Best Week of 2012

Attachment:
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click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- U.S. stocks rose Friday, capping the best week of the year, amid speculation that Spain will request a bailout for its troubled banking sector over the weekend.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) rose 93 points, or 0.7%, to end at 12,554. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained 11 points, or 0.8%, to 1,326. The Nasdaq (COMP) was up by 27 points, or 1%, to 2,858.

The major gauges all posted the largest weekly gain of 2012. The Dow rose 3.6%, the S&P gained 3.5% and the Nasdaq was 3.9% higher for the week.

Overall, the gains were driven by hopes for a coordinated intervention by global central banks to support the economy. On Thursday, China's central bank announced a surprise interest rate cut. The European Central Bank held rates steady at its meeting Wednesday, but many analysts expect the ECB to cut rates next month.

Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke told lawmakers Wednesday that the U.S. central bank stands ready to act, but he offered no hint that additional stimulus measures are imminent. Bernanke's comments came after other Fed officials suggested the bank could extend a policy of reinvesting proceeds from assets on its balance sheet into the Treasury market, known as Operation Twist.

"There's a lot of uncertainty out there," said Bernard Kavanagh, vice president of portfolio management for St. Louis-based broker Stifel Nicolaus. "I'm surprised we didn't see more selling given the strong week we've had."

Investors gravitated towards stocks that are considered defensive, including consumer staples such as Walmart (WMT, Fortune 500) and Coca-Cola. (KO, Fortune 500)

Meanwhile, investors remain focused on Europe, particularly the banking crisis in Spain.

Spain could formally request bailout funds from the European Union as soon as this weekend, according to Reuters. But EU officials and the Spanish government say a request for help will not be made until a full assessment of the banking sector is complete.

On Thursday, Fitch slashed Spain's credit rating three notches to 'BBB' from 'A.' The ratings agency pointed to the estimated cost of a Spanish bank bailout, which it said is likely to cost between €60 billion and €100 billion. Fitch also said it expects a prolonged recession in Spain that will run throughout 2013.

The yield on 10-year Spanish bonds rose to a high of 6.6% last week, prompting a warning from the nation's Treasury minister that the government is in danger of being priced out of the market. But yields eased this week following a successful bond auction on Thursday and are now around 6.2%.

Joseph Saluzzi, co-head of equity trading at Themis Trading, said traders do not want to bet the market will fall Monday in case EU leaders announce a rescue plan for Spain over the weekend.

"The shorts have been burned time and again," he said. "No one wants to come in here and take a stand."

U.S. stocks ended mixed Thursday, trimming gains from earlier in the day. Investor sentiment remains in the "extreme fear" range on CNNMoney's Fear & Greed index, although it has eased in the last few days.
Fear & Greed Index

World markets: European stocks closed lower. Britain's FTSE 100 (UKX) and the DAX (DAX) in Germany both fell 0.2%. France's CAC 40 (CAC40) declined 0.6%.

Asian markets ended Friday trading lower, reacting to both the Chinese rate cut and Bernanke's comments. The Shanghai Composite (SHCOMP) closed down 0.5%, the Hang Seng (HSI) in Hong Kong lost 0.9%, and Japan's Nikkei (N225) fell 2.1%

Economy: The U.S. trade deficit for April came in at $50.1 billion, roughly in line with forecasts of analysts by Briefing.com, and down from the revised $52.6 billion in March.

Wholesale inventories for April rose by 0.6%, after increasing by 0.3% in the month prior.

* Video - Bernanke: Middle Class Decline Is Old News

Companies: Shares of International Game Technology (IGT) edged up after the gaming firm announced late Thursday that it had received a recommendation for an online gaming license from the Nevada Gaming Control Board.

* The bull case for Facebook (Yes, there is one)

Shares of Molina Healthcare (MOH, Fortune 500) jumped after the company announced late Thursday that Ohio had endorsed its bid to continue as a health care provider for the state's Medicaid beneficiaries.

Shares of McDonald's (MCD, Fortune 500) and KFC-owner Yum! Brands (YUM, Fortune 500) declined Friday amid growing fears about slowing economic growth in China. McDonald's announced that its sales at stores open at least a year in Asia, the Middle East and Africa regions declined 1.7% in May, with particular weakness in Japan and China.

JPMorgan (JPM, Fortune 500) shares rose 2.5%. The bank's CEO, Jamie Dimon, will appear in front of the Senate Banking Committee Wednesday to answer questions about the company's $2 billion loss.

Currencies and commodities: The dollar gained against the euro and the British pound, but slipped versus the Japanese yen.

Oil for July delivery continue its slide, losing 72 cents to settle at $84.10 a barrel.

Gold futures for June delivery rose $3.40 to end at $1,591.40 an ounce, reversing earlier losses.

Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury rose, pushing the yield near down to 1.64% from the 1.65% level reached late Thursday.

Image

Market Update

4:15 pm : A big mid-week bounce helped the S&P 500 score a weekly gain of 3.7%, helping it reverse the 3.0% that it lost during the course of trade last week.

Action this week began with the broad market slashing losses for a flat finish on Monday. Early weakness in response to a disappointing non-manufacturing PMI reading from China resulted in new multi-month lows before stocks stabilized and were then squeezed higher with help from Tech stocks.

On Tuesday market participants were dealt a mixed batch of Services PMI readings from Europe and news of a decline in eurozone retail sales. As for domestic data, the latest ISM Services Index improved incrementally in May to 53.7 from 53.5 in the prior month to best the Briefing.com consensus call of 53.1.

A teleconference between G-7 finance ministers regarding the persistently precarious conditions facing the eurozone and Spain’s banking system failed to provide any concrete action plans.

On Wednesday the stock market scored its best single-session percentage gain of 2012 by spiking in excess of 2%. The rally came in response to speculation that the Fed is weighing further stimulus options because of headwinds slowing the economic recovery. No official Fed statement was made, but European Central Bank President Draghi insisted that, if needed, actions would be taken after the ECB left its benchmark interest rate at 1.00%.

The Fed's latest Beige Book suggested that overall economic activity in the dozen Fed districts continued to increase at a modest to moderate pace in March and early April, while consumer spending was unchanged to up moderately.

The stock market’s strong, broad-based gains on Wednesday drove many traders out of Treasuries, such that the yield on the 10-year Note ran up to 1.65%, which is roughly 20 basis points above the record low set last week.

Stocks attempted to follow their impressive performance by climbing another 1% or so on Thursday, but all of that gain was given up by the session’s end. Initial buying was helped along by news that China's central bank trimmed its benchmark interest rate.

Many also held to the belief that efforts will be made to improve banking and financial conditions in Spain, which had its debt rating downgraded to BBB from A by analysts at Fitch after the country had held a successful debt auction earlier in the day.

The notion that the Fed will take steps further stimulate the domestic economy weren’t exactly given credence by Fed Chairman Bernanke, who failed to hint at any immediate plans during his speech before Congress.

The only dose of data for the day was an in-line weekly initial jobless claims count of 377,000. Continuing claims climbed to about 3.29 million from roughly 3.26 million.

On Friday stocks fought to reclaim the gains surrendered in the prior session. The broad market not only overcame an early loss, but managed to book a strong gain.

Financials proved to be a source of strength. The sector ascended from an early loss to a 1.2% gain with help from bank stocks, which collectively climbed 1.6%, based on the KBW Bank Index. Tech contributed to the effort by trading up to a 0.9% gain. For the week Financials advanced almost 5%, while Tech advanced little more than 4%.

Telecom scored the strongest gain after some mixed performances earlier in the week. The sector’s 1.5% gain contributed to a weekly advance of nearly 3%, which is less than what the broad market achieved.

Of the major sectors, only Energy failed to find positive territory. For the week it was up almost 4%, but on Friday it finished flat amid lower oil prices. Oil prices were down more than 2% in early pit trade, but managed to improve their position by the close. The energy component ended the day at $84.09 per barrel for a 0.8% loss. Earlier this week oil prices set a new 2012 low beneath $82 per barrel.

Shares of McDonald’s (MCD 87.75, -0.63) also sat out of the stock market’s advance. The stock was pressured because of disappointment surrounding the company’s less-than-impressive 3.3% increase in global sales during May.

Data had hardly any sway, if any at all, with market participants. Releases featured a slightly narrower trade deficit of about $50 billion, along with an in-line 0.6% increase in wholesale inventories.

The euro endured selling for the entire session, but was able to halve an early loss so that it ended the day about 0.5% lower at $1.25. In contrast to recent weeks, action among stocks was less correlated to the euro’s movements this week.

Reports suggest that Europe’s leaders will convene this weekend to address Spain’s struggling banking system. The weekend also brings some price data from China. DJ30 +93.24 NASDAQ +27.40 NQ100 +0.9% R2K +1.1% SP400 +0.9% SP500 +10.67 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1586/1.30 bln/886 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2059/572 mln/939

3:30 pm : Natural gas stayed in positive territory for all of pit trade, touching a session high of $2.32 per MMBtu. It settled just below that level at $2.30 per MMBtu for a gain of 1.3%, but still 0.9% lower than where it began the week. The weekly decline is largely owed to steep losses suffered in response to a larger-than-expected inventory build of 62 bcf on Thursday.

Crude oil spent its entire floor trade in the red. It set a session low of $82.59 per barrel in morning action before it traded up to a session high of $84.26 per barrel. It settled the session at $84.09 per barrel for a 0.8% loss. Crude closed the week 1.1% higher than where it began, despite a lack of commitment by Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke to immediate plans for further economic stimulus.

Precious metals traded up after starting pit trade markedly lower. Gold came off its session low of $1576.20 per ounce and broke into the black as it headed into the close. Although it managed to erase its loss, gold settled the week 1.8% lower at $1591.70 per ounce. Silver wasn't quite able to find positive territory. It settled at $28.48 per ounce, just below its session high of $28.52 per ounce, or 0.1% lower than last Friday’s close. DJ30 +70.91 NASDAQ +24.21 SP500 +8.51 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1605/1.02 bln/850 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1940/435 mln/1030

3:00 pm : Although the brod market has inched up to an incrementally improved session high to sport a solid gain, shares of McDonald's (MCD 87.94, -0.46) are still in the red. The stock's weakness this session comes amid a negative response to news that the company's global sales increased by a less-than-stellar 3.3% during May.DJ30 +69.47 NASDAQ +22.20 SP500 +8.06 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1600/945 mln/845 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1950/400 mln/1010

2:30 pm : Stocks have essentially entered into a sideways drift that has kept the major equity averages at session highs with solid gains. Small-cap stocks and mid-cap stocks have also set adrift with solid gains of their own -- 1.0% and 0.7%, respectively.

Share volume has been paltry today -- the lack of headlines and consequential data has kept many market participants on the sidelines. With only 90 minutes remaining in trade today, volume hasn't even exceeded 400 million shares on the NYSE. That puts today's pace of trade about one hour behind that of the prior session. DJ30 +60.80 NASDAQ +18.62 SP500 +6.78 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1590/875 mln/845 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1880/370 mln/1065

2:00 pm : Stocks remain near session highs in mid-afternoon trade. The euro has worked its way up to an incrementally improved session high, but it is still down 0.5% against a basket of major foreign currencies. Meanwhile, the benchmark 10-year Treasury Note is clinging to a gain of only a few ticks.DJ30 +61.68 NASDAQ +19.87 SP500 +6.65 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1590/800 mln/810 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1900/340 mln/1025

1:30 pm : The broad market's recent climb had helped take the Energy sector to the flat line, but resistance there has kept it in the red. Still, the sector's 0.2% loss is much less than what it had wrestled with this morning, when oil prices were down well in excess of 2%. Oil prices are presently down by 1.8% at $83.35 per barrel.DJ30 +68.91 NASDAQ +20.30 SP500 +7.33 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1580/718 mln/815 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1910/310 mln/1000

1:00 pm : A cautious tone this morning led to a lower open for stocks, but an improved mood has pushed the major equity averages into positive territory for modest gains.

Early losses were largely underpinned by uncertainty pertaining to Europe's plans for Spain's banking system and some price data from China that is due this weekend. The euro has also been under sharp pressure all day; it is currently down 0.7% against the greenback.

Domestic data has had little influence over trade today. The releases featured a slightly narrower trade deficit on the order of $50 billion, along with an in-line 0.6% increase in wholesale inventories.

Financials have helped lead an effort to left the broad market out of the red. The sector was down markedly this morning, but has since pushed up to a 0.5% gain. Tech stocks are chipping in; they're up about 0.4% as a group. Still, Telecom is in the best shape with a 1.2% gain. The sector's lack of weight has made it less influential, however.

Although stocks have improved their position, weakness persists among most commodities, leaving the CRB Index to wrestle with a 0.6% loss. The CRB was down more than 1% this morning, but its effort to move higher has been helped by oil's attempt to trim its loss. Oil prices were down well in excess of 2% in early pit trade, but the energy component has since traded up to $83.60 per barrel for a 1.4% loss. DJ30 +54.45 NASDAQ +15.36 SP500 +5.70 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1525/655 mln/850 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1765/285 mln/1140

12:30 pm : Stocks have pushed up to new session highs with help from Financials, which were down markedly this morning, but have since fought their way to a 0.4% gain. Tech stocks, also up 0.4%, have contributed, too.DJ30 +48.13 NASDAQ +15.62 SP500 +4.96 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1385/600 mln/965 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1570/260 mln/1310

12:00 pm : Telecom stocks have extended their lead over the rest of the stock market. The sector's 1.1% gain is greater than what any other sector has achieved, and has helped position it for a 2.3% weekly gain, which is acually less than the 3.1% weekly gain that the S&P 500 is riding currently. The relatively varied performance of the Telecom sector comes after it bested the broad market during May by booking a near 3% monthly gain while the S&P 500 fell more than 6% in that time.DJ30 +6.58 NASDAQ +7.61 SP500 +0.40 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1380/510 mln/950 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1560/220 mln/1295

11:30 am : Both the Dow and the S&P 500 recently returned to the neutral line, but each was able to find support there. Such a base has helped the two averages bounce back up to a modest gain. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq has a narrow lead over the pair with help from strength in Tech names like Intel (INTC 26.37, +0.43), Yahoo! (YHOO 15.58, +0.22), and Juniper Networks (JNPR 16.85, +0.28).DJ30 +24.75 NASDAQ +11.96 SP500 +2.15 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1330/430 mln/965 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1490/185 mln/1340

11:00 am : Stocks have extended their climb off of session lows to push into positive territory for modest gain. The effort comes as the euro attempts to turn higher, although the currency is still down about 0.7% against the greenback.

Strength in the US dollar has the Dollar Index up 0.8%. For the week, though, the dollar is down about 0.3% against a basket of major foreign currencies. Until this week, the greenback had staged five straight weekly gains. DJ30 +25.22 NASDAQ +12.22 SP500 +2.49 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1370/360 mln/915 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1500/145 mln/1330

10:30 am : Crude oil prices remain under heavy pressure, such that the energy component is currently down 2.5% to $82.70 per barrel. Natural gas has held on to a solid 0.5% gain at $2.29 per MMBtu.

Precious metals remain under pressure. Gold prices are presently down 0.5% to $1580 per ounce, while silver wrestles with a 1.0% loss at $28.25 per ounce.

General weakness in the commodity complex has the CRB Index down 1.0% for its worst one-day drop of the week. DJ30 -12.83 NASDAQ +3.02 SP500 -1.71 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 870/210 mln/1340 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1010/105 mln/1700

10:00 am : Wholesale inventories were up 0.6% in April. That's on par with the increase of 0.5% that had been broadly forecasted.

Stocks haven't shown any meaningful response to the data. Prior to the report's release they began to push up from early session lows, but remain in the red with modest losses. DJ30 -38.07 NASDAQ -7.66 SP500 -4.77 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 550/82 mln/1590 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 610/58 mln/2035

09:45 am : Stocks are down markedly this morning. Pressure has been relatively broad, but Energy stocks are in especially poor shape. The sector's 1.4% loss comes amid a 2.4% drop in oil prices to $82.80 per barrel.

Telecom stocks are back in favor after underperforming for the past few sessions. The defensive-oriented sector is presently up 0.6%.

As an aside, monthly wholesale numbers are due at the top of the hour. DJ30 -46.17 NASDAQ -14.24 SP500 -6.34 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -2.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -4.00. Stock futures have attempted to trim losses so that only a slightly lower start to the session is now expected. The improved tone comes despite aggressive selling against the euro, which is now down 1.0% against the greenback. However, Europe's major bourses have managed to cut losses as they enter the last few hours of trade before beginning a weekend that will reportedly feature a meeting among European leaders who will convene discuss plans for helping Spain shore up its banking industry. The weekend also brings some price data from China, which recently announced an interest rate cut. Domestic data has been limited to an unsurprising monthly trade deficit. Due at 10:00 AM ET is the latest in wholesale trade data.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -0.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -0.50. Weakness in the commodity complex has the CRB Index down 1.2%, which makes for the worst performance of the week. Crude oil prices have dropped sharply to $82.50 per barrel for a loss of 2.7% in early pit trade. Natural gas prices are up 0.5% to $2.29 per MMBtu after they slumped in the prior session. Precious metals are back under pressure, such that silver prices are down 0.6% to $1579 per ounce, while silver sits at $28.18 per ounce with a 1.2% loss.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -1.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -3.00. Stock futures are generally unfazed by the latest dose of data. Treasuries and currencies have also shrugged off the numbers. The trade deficit narrowed to $50.1 billion during April after an upwardly revised prior month deficit of $52.6 billion. Economists polled by Briefing.com had expected, on average, that the deficit for April would come in at $49.7 billion.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -2.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -4.00. Stocks faltered in afternoon action to settle the prior session at the flat line. Selling interest has extended into today's premarket as participants make note of a sharp retreat by the euro and pronounced losses among Europe's major bourses. Some regard the action as cautionary, given the uncertainty surrounding the treatment of Spain's banks and upcoming data from China this weekend. Data on tap for today is limited with international trade numbers due at the bottom of the hour then wholesale trade data at 10:00 AM ET.

06:20 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -6.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -11.75.

06:19 am : Nikkei...8459.26...-180.50...-2.10%. Hang Seng...18502.34...-176.00...-0.90%.

06:19 am : FTSE...5416.10...-31.70...-0.60%. DAX...6116.30...-27.90...-0.50%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader, http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader and http://chart.ly/users/wrbtrader

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