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 Post subject: May 24th Thursday 2012 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +7.60
PostPosted: Thu May 24, 2012 10:32 pm 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)

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click on the above image to view today's performance verification

Price Action Trade Performance for Today: +7.60 points or $760 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, all trades were posted real-time in the free #FuturesTrades chat room. You can read today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs for details (e.g. time, price, contract size) about each one of my trades from entry to exit along with price action commentary as the trade traversed in comparison to what's shown in the above image...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=104&t=1229.

To join our free chat room...log-in instructions located at a different forum @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=630

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my price action trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our price action trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=152&t=1459

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Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/IMF actions or any important global economic events that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables (key market events) causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that results in swing points and strong continuation price actions. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for my technical analysis. Just as important, these summaries becomes my archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past...something I can not get from my broker statements alone.

U.S. Stocks End Mixed Amid Europe Worries

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click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- U.S. stocks finished mixed Thursday, as investors reacted to a batch of lackluster U.S. economic data and ongoing concerns about Europe's debt crisis and the risk of Greece exiting the eurozone.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) rose 34 points, or 0.3%, the S&P 500 (SPX) added 2 points, or 0.1%, and the Nasdaq (COMP) declined 11 points, or 0.4%.

Investors were less than impressed to see that the number of Americans filing for first-time unemployment benefits held near the 370,000 mark for a fourth week, signaling companies probably increased hiring only slightly in May.

Durable good orders only rose 0.2%, less than economists were expecting. Excluding transportation goods, orders unexpectedly dropped 0.6%, compared to forecasts for a modest gain.

Meanwhile, worries about Europe's debt crisis and the threat of Greece leaving the eurozone have unnerved investors on both sides of the Atlantic. According to CNNMoney's Fear & Greed Index, investor sentiment has been at an "extreme fear" level for the past two weeks.

* Are you more scared now than a year ago? No.

European leaders met Wednesday in an ad hoc summit to address the latest problems with sovereign debt amid growing worries that Greece is moving closer to dropping the euro, and the contagion effects an exit might have on other economies.

The meeting failed to establish any concrete solutions for resolving the sovereign debt crisis or moving forward with Greece.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel said, "We want Greece to stay in the euro, but we insist that Greece sticks to commitments that it has agreed to."

As investors continue to watch for developments out of Europe, markets will likely continue to "move along a bumpy road" said Tyler Vernon, chief investment officer at Biltmore Capital.

Given the recent slide in stocks, investors are looking for good buying opportunities but are afraid to be getting in amid uncertainty in Europe, he said.

"Emotions have taken hold of the markets in recent weeks, but at some point, the value guys will start coming in," Vernon said, noting that the S&P 500 is trading at an attractive valuation, below 13 times earnings estimates.

Worries about weakness in the technology sector were one of the major drags on U.S. markets for much of the trading day Wednesday, although stocks erased hefty losses by the end of the day.

* Video - The trouble with reviving the drachma

World markets: European stocks ended higher the day after leaders met. Britain's FTSE 100 (UKX) gained nearly 1.6%, the DAX (DAX) in Germany added 0.5% and France's CAC 40 (CAC40) rose 1.2%.

Asian markets closed mostly lower following HSBC's preliminary reading on Chinese manufacturing. The Shanghai Composite (SHCOMP) lost 0.5%, while the Hang Seng (HSI) in Hong Kong closed off 0.6%. Bucking the trend was Japan's Nikkei (N225), which inched up 0.1% at the close.

China's manufacturing sector continued to shrink in May, according to a preliminary reading from HSBC's Flash Purchasing Managers' Index.

Economy: The number of people filing for first-time unemployment benefits dipped 2,000 to 370,000 in the latest week, the Labor Department said Thursday. The number was in line with economists' forecasts.

Companies: Shares of Dow component Hewlett-Packard (HPQ, Fortune 500) jumped after the company reported profit and sales that beat forecasts and raised its forecast for the full year. The company also announced plans to cut 27,000 jobs worldwide.

* Don't celebrate HP's huge lay-offs

Warehouse retailer Costco (COST, Fortune 500) reported improved earnings that were slightly better than forecasts early Thursday, on revenue that was roughly in line with estimates. Shares of Costco gained on the report.

Shares of luxury retailer Tiffany & Co. (TIF) tumbled after it reported lower earnings that missed forecasts, despite improved revenue.

Shares of data storage firm NetApp (NTAP, Fortune 500) plunged after the company gave fiscal first-quarter earnings guidance well below the consensus estimates. The company did report fiscal fourth-quarter earnings growth, though.

* Facebook IPO: Individual investors get burned

Meanwhile, the Facebook (FB) saga continues as the social media company's IPO has sparked more lawsuits and investigations. Shares of the company edged higher Thursday, but are still trading below the IPO price of $38.

Lead Facebook IPO underwriter Morgan Stanley (MS, Fortune 500) and other underwriters made money on the trading of Facebook shares as prices dropped, sources at one of the underwriters told Fortune.

Currencies and commodities: The dollar dropped against against the euro and the British pound, but was higher versus the Japanese yen.

Oil for July delivery rose 70 cents to settle at $90.66 a barrel, moving back above the benchmark after falling below $90 for the first time since November during trading Wednesday.

Gold futures for June delivery rose $9.10 to settle at $1,557.50 an ounce.

Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury edged lower, with the yield rising to 1.76% from 1.72% late Wednesday.

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Market Update

4:30 pm : Hampered by Tech stocks, the Nasdaq was unable to join its counterparts in positive territory for modest gains following a late lift that came in the face of a weak euro.

The euro fell to a new 52-week low of about $1.25 today. It had actually made an upward move this morning to lead the greenback by a narrow margin amid a speech by European Central Bank President Draghi, calls by eurozone officials for contingency plans pertaining to Greece’s possible departure from the eurozone, and chatter about coordinated central bank actions regarding swap lines. Before long, though, the euro resumed its downtrend so that it trailed the dollar by about 0.4% by the closing bell.

Economic data from Europe featured disappointing Flash Manufacturing readings from France, Germany, and the broader eurozone. China also reported a disappointing Manufacturing PMI reading. Domestic data featured underwhelming durable goods orders data and an unsurprising weekly initial jobless claims count.

Durable goods orders increased by 0.2% during April, but orders less transportation items declined by 0.6%. Economists polled by Briefing.com had expected, on average, that overall orders would increase by 0.3%, while orders less transportation would increase by 1.0%. Prior month data was revised to reflect a 3.7% decline in overall orders and a 0.8% decline in orders less transportation items.

The latest weekly initial jobless claims count totaled 370,000, which is on par with the 365,000 initial claims that had been widely forecasted, and consistent with the 372,000 initial claims filed in the prior week.

Domestic data seemed to matter little to market participants, as did the latest round of earnings reports, which was headlined by Hewlett-Packard (HPQ 21.77, +0.69). Shares of HPQ scored their best single-session percentage gain in more than a month following the firm’s upside earnings surprise.

The rest of the Tech space underperformed, hurting the Tech-rich Nasdaq. In fact, the Tech sector’s 0.9% loss made for the weakest performance of any major sector. Energy stocks and Industrials stocks, both of which declined just 0.1%, made up the only other sectors to suffer losses.

Materials stocks made another impressive swing higher, as they did in the prior session. The sector overcame an afternoon loss to settle with a 0.8% gain. That was almost as strong as the 0.9% gain staged by Consumer Staples, which spent the entire session in positive territory as defensive-oriented issues held up relatively well throughout trade.

Despite general weakness during afternoon trade and steady pressure on the euro, stocks managed to stage a late squeeze higher. The effort slowed as the S&P 500 came in contact with the flat line, but the broad market was able to regroup and push into positive territory and come away with a narrow gain.

Advancing Sectors: Financials +0.1%, Consumer Discretionary +0.5%, Telecom +0.6%, Utilities +0.6%, Health Care +0.8%, Materials +0.8%, Consumer Staples +0.9%
Declining Sectors: Idustrials -0.1%, Energy -0.1%, Tech -0.9%DJ30 +33.60 NASDAQ -10.74 NQ100 -0.6% R2K +0.2% SP400 +0.3% SP500 +1.82 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1298/1.73 bln/1228 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1759/794 mln/1252

3:30 pm : After two consecutive losses, crude oil was able to maintain a position in positive territory for all of pit trade, despite underwhelming economic data. Prices ranged from a session high of $91.55 per barrel to a session low of $90.17 per barrel before action settled with crude at $90.63 per barrel for a 0.9% gain.

Natural gas, however, suffered a 3.3% loss by settling at $2.64 per MMBtu. The drop came despite an inventory build of 77 bcf when a build of 80 bcf was expected. A floor session low of $2.63 per MMBtu was set just before action settled for the session.

Gold and silver extended their overnight gains as they climbed to their respective pit session highs of $1577.70 per ounce and $28.51 per ounce. Their climb was helped by a drop by the dollar this morning. Although precious metals lost momentum as the dollar regained strength, both gold and silver managed to finish in positive territory with a gain of 0.5% at $1556.70 per ounce and a 2.3% gain at $28.12 per ounce, respectively.DJ30 -12.87 NASDAQ -22.44 SP500 -2.98 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 950/1.28 bln/1550 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1205/465 mln/1765

3:00 pm : The Tech-rich Nasdaq continues to trade with an outsized loss as action enters the final hour of the session. It has lagged its counterparts for all but the opening minutes of trade today. Tech stocks are to blame -- the sector has been weak almost all day and is currently down about 1.3%.

Only a handful of companies are scheduled to report earnings results after the close. There isn't a market mover among them. Such is also the case for tomorrow morning. Tomorrow's economic calendar features only the final monthly reading on consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan. DJ30 -35.65 NASDAQ -27.03 SP500 -5.15 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 910/1.20 bln/1575 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1110/440 mln/1850

2:30 pm : Stocks remain stuck near session lows. The weak action comes amid a lack of leadership -- only defensive-oriented issues like Consumer Staples, Telecom, Health Care, and Utilities are in positive territory, but none has enough weight in the market to make their gains meaningful. Moreover, their gains range from the Consumer Staples sector's 0.5% gain to the Utilities sector's 0.1% gain.DJ30 -44.69 NASDAQ -23.58 SP500 -5.26 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA

2:00 pm : Stocks recently retreated to a new session low, but broad market losses remain relatively modest. Still, the slip comes in conjunction with a downturn by the euro, which now trails the dollar by almost 0.4%. The euro's move to almost $1.25 puts the currency back near its overnight low and near two-year low.DJ30 -51.96 NASDAQ -23.40 SP500 -5.66 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA

1:30 pm : Despite lackluster action among stocks, Treasuries continue to trade with moderate weakness following results from an auction of 7-year Notes. The offering drew a bid-to-cover of 2.80, dollar demand of $81.2 billion, and an indirect bidder participation rate of 42.7%. For comparison, the prior auction attracted a bid-to-cover of 2.83, dollar demand of $82.1 billion, and an indirect bidder rate of 38.2%, while an average of the last six auctions results in a bid-to-cover of 2.88, dollar demand of $83.5 billion, and an indirect bidder rate of 39.4%.DJ30 -43.67 NASDAQ -22.35 SP500 -5.20 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1015/895 mln/1445 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1280/335 mln/1635

1:00 pm : The major equity averages are in the red with modest losses following a choppy morning, but the dollar is back to a narrow gain.

Early traders essentially shrugged off the latest batch of domestic economic data, which featured a 0.2% increase in April durable goods orders and a surprise drop of 0.6% in orders less transportation items. Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 370,000, which is consistent with the prior week and what had been generally forecasted.

Quarterly reports also seemed to matter little to the broad market, although an upside earnings surprise from Hewlett-Packard (HPQ 21.58, +0.50) has helped shares of the company put together an impressive gain -- the stock is near its session low, but still on pace for its best single-session percentage gain since a 7% surge more than a month ago.

While HPQ shares are showing strength, the rest of the Tech sector has been under pressure for the better part of the session. It currently contends with a 0.9% loss, which is worse than what any other sector has sufffered today. Weakness among Tech issues has left the Nasdaq to trail its counterparts for most of the session.

During the early going stocks showed a positive response to a downturn by the dollar, which was pulled off of a new 52-week high because of renewed support for the euro, but the greenback has since reclaimed gains to lead a collection of competing currencies by about 0.2%. Movements in the two currencies come as some eurozone leaders make a push for a contingency plan pertaining to a possible departure by Greece from the eurozone, and chatter this morning that fees for currency swap lines might be trimmed as part of a coordinated central bank effort. DJ30 -27.06 NASDAQ -17.35 SP500 -3.54 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 975/825 mln/1480 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1205/305 mln/1690

12:30 pm : All three major equity averages are at session lows. Overall losses remain relatively modest. Mid-cap stocks are in similar shape, but small-caps are under more intense pressure as the Russell 2000 falls to a 0.8% loss. Among small-cap issues, Kilroy Realty (KRC 45.83, -0.50) and Willbros Group (WG 5.48, -0.05) are weighing on the Russell 2000.DJ30 -39.43 NASDAQ -18.63 SP500 -4.58 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 930/750 mln/1515 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1155/280 mln/1715

12:00 pm : The major equity averages are on the backslide once again. Tech continues to weigh heavily -- the sector, which is the largest by market weight, is down 1.0%, or more than any other major sector.

Financials have come under increased pressure in recent trade. Less than an hour ago the sector was fractionally positive, but now it is back to its session low with a loss of about 0.7%. Shares of diversified banks and diversified financial services firms -- primarily Bank of America (BAC 7.03, -0.14), Goldman Sachs (GS 96.15, -1.89), and Citigroup (C 26.50, -0.65) -- are dragging on the group. DJ30 -15.67 NASDAQ -14.35 SP500 -1.97 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1100/645 mln/1325 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1415/240 mln/1445

11:30 am : The Nasdaq continues struggling to turn positive, but both the S&P 500 and the Dow are up with narrow gains. Tech, down 0.2%, continues to drag on the Nasdaq, but the other major averages have been helped by strength in Consumer Staples stocks, Materials stocks, and Health Care stocks, which are up 0.8%, 0.6%, and 0.6%, respectively.DJ30 +21.04 NASDAQ -1.48 SP500 +2.89 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1155/525 mln/1230 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1500/205 mln/1290

11:00 am : Stocks continue struggling to find a clear direction, leaving the major equity averages to chop along with mixed results.

Meanwhile, the dollar has managed to trim some of its loss so that it is now down less than 0.1% since making a push up to a new 52-week high earlier this morning.

As for Treasuries, they remain under modest pressure, such that the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note is now back within a couple of basis points of 1.80%. DJ30 +13.06 NASDAQ -3.47 SP500 +1.80 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1195/440 mln/1140 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1665/175 mln/1120

10:30 am : Action in the commodity complex has the CRB Index up 0.8% after it suffered yesterday its worst one-day percentage drop since early April.

Still trading narrowly beneath $91 per barrel, crude oil prices have maintained a strong gain of little more than 1%. Natural gas prices are now at about $2.79 per MMBtu with a 0.4% loss after they traded at about $2.78 per MMBtu in the minutes that immediately preceded the latest weekly inventory report, which showed a build of 77 bcf when a build of 80 bcf had been broadly anticipated.

As for precious metals prices, gold continues to trade with a strong gain at $1573 per ounce, up 1.6%. Silver still sports a gain greater than 3% at $28.37 per ounce. DJ30 +9.46 NASDAQ -4.34 SP500 +1.24 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 905/305 mln/1430 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1235/125 mln/1510

10:00 am : Stocks are trying to recover from a recent slip that took all three major averages into negative territory. Defensive-oriented issues are currently out in front of the broad market -- Utilities are up 0.6%, Consumer Staples and Telecom are up 0.5%, while Health Care is up 0.3%.DJ30 -18.66 NASDAQ -13.61 SP500 -1.23 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 990/135 mln/1230 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1520/70 mln/1135

09:45 am : Despite an improved tone to premarket trade, the opening minutes of trade have been choppy. What's more, an early drop by Tech has undercut the Nasdaq so that it lags its counterparts by a modest margin.

NetApp (NTAP 28.91, -3.95) is weighing heavily on the Tech sector following the firm's downside forecast. However, Hewlett-Packard (HPQ 22.22, +1.14) remains a source of strength among Tech issues. The stock's gain stems from a pleasing quarterly report that featured an upside earnings surprise. DJ30 -18.84 NASDAQ -7.82 SP500 -0.33 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +3.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.30. Stock futures now point to a positive open for the cash market. The improved tone comes amid a downturn by the dollar, which now trails a collection of competing currencies by about 0.2% after it had pushed up to its best level since September 2010 earlier this morning. The greenback's retreat comes alongside a bounce by the euro as ECB President Draghi holds a press conference and chatter suggests that the Fed may be considering a cut to swap line fees as part of a coordinated central bank action, but nothing on that topic has been confirmed. Data, which featured an in-line weekly initial jobless claims count and some underwhelming durable goods orders numbers, has been shrugged off by many market participants. Earnings have been generally given little regard, too.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +4.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.00. Stock futures have pushed up in recent trade. The action comes in conjunction with a pullback by the greenback, which now trails a basket of major foreign currencies by about 0.1%. As for action in commodities, crude oil prices closed below $90 per barrel for the first time of 2012 yesterday, but today the energy component has rebounded to $91.10 per barrel for a 1.3% gain. Natural gas prices are essentially unchanged at $2.80 per barrel in early pit trade; price action could turn volatile with the release of the latest weekly inventory numbers at 10:30 AM ET. Precious metals prices are up sharply. Specifically, gold prices are up 1.7% to $1575 per ounce, while silver sports a 3.2% gain at $28.40 per ounce. Their move higher has been helped by the dollar's recent downturn.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.50. Stock futures have eased back a bit following a double-dose of domestic data. Durable goods orders increased by 0.2% during April, but economists polled by Briefing.com had expected, on average, an increase of 0.3%. Durable goods orders for the prior month were revised higher to reflect a decline of 3.7%. Excluding transportation items, orders fell 0.6% in April. They had been widely expected to increase by 1.0% after a 0.8% drop in the prior month.

Separately, initial jobless claims for the week ended May 19 totaled 370,000, which is on par with the 365,000 claims filings that had been generally expected, and consistent with the 372,000 initial claims filed in the prior week. Continuing claims declined to about 3.26 million from roughly 3.29 million.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +1.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.30. Stock futures are somewhat mixed this morning. The tone despite renewed strength in Europe, where there region's major bourses have staged a nice rebound after suffering steep losses in the prior session. However, the euro continues to trade in lackluster fashion, stuck near two-year lows. The action abroad comes as some officials in Europe argue for contingency plans, including euro bonds, regarding a possible departure by Greece from the eurozone. Some of the more cynical market participants expect such discourse to result in more political gridlock.

Earnings remain in the backdrop, although it is worth noting that Hewlett-Packard (HPQ 22.80, +1.72) headlined a handful of reports with an upside surprise. Note: ticker quote reflects premarket price.

On tap for today is a double-dose of data that features weekly initial jobless claims and monthly durable goods orders at the bottom of the hour. Weekly natural gas inventory numbers are slated for release at 10:30 AM ET. Results from an auction of 7-year Notes will be posted at 1:00 PM ET.

06:19 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +4.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.80.

06:19 am : Nikkei...8563.38...+6.80...+0.10%. Hang Seng...18666.40...-119.80...-0.60%.

06:19 am : FTSE...5328.75...+62.30...+1.20%. DAX...6318.73...+33.00...+0.50%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader, http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader and http://chart.ly/users/wrbtrader

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