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 Post subject: May 22nd Tuesday 2012 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +30.40
PostPosted: Tue May 22, 2012 9:54 pm 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)

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click on the above image to view today's performance verification

Price Action Trade Performance for Today: +30.40 points or $3040 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, all trades were posted real-time in the free #FuturesTrades chat room. You can read today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs for details (e.g. time, price, contract size) about each one of my trades from entry to exit along with price action commentary as the trade traversed in comparison to what's shown in the above image...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=104&t=1227.

To join our free chat room...log-in instructions located at a different forum @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=630

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my price action trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our price action trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=152&t=1459

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Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/IMF actions or any important global economic events that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables (key market events) causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that results in swing points and strong continuation price actions. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for my technical analysis. Just as important, these summaries becomes my archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past...something I can not get from my broker statements alone.

U.S. Stock Market Wrap

May 22 (Bloomberg) -- Bloomberg's Deborah Kostroun reports on the performance of the U.S. equity market. U.S. stocks erased earlier gains as concern that Greece would exit the euro and a tumble in Facebook Inc. shares overshadowed economic optimism.

Stocks Lose Steam On Greek Exit Worries

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click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- U.S. stocks ended flat Tuesday, after turning sharply lower during the final hour of trading amid fears that Greece will leave the eurozone.

About an hour before the closing bell, reports surfaced that former Greek prime minister Lucas Papademos told Dow Jones Newswires that Greece is considering making preparations to leave the eurozone.

The euro sank on the news, falling more than 1% against the dollar, and pulled stocks down with it.

Earlier, strong U.S. housing data boosted stocks.

"Investors were able to concentrate on what was happening in the U.S., said Kim Forrest, senior equity analyst at Fort Pitt Capital Group. "But I guess Greece came back with a vengeance."

* Video - Greece: Top 3 risks facing U.S.

After being up almost 1% earlier in the day, the S&P 500 (SPX) sank as much as 0.5%. The broad index managed to recover by the closing bell, finishing the day up less than 1 point, or 0.1%.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) and Nasdaq (COMP) also tumbled following the Greek news. Both indexes bounced back from their lowest levels of the day but still finished in the red. The Dow slipped 2 points for the day, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq lost 8 points, or 0.3%.

Investors will continue to focus on developments out of Europe.

The region's leaders are due to meet Wednesday in an ad hoc summit to address the latest problems with European sovereign debt, worries that Greece is moving closer to leaving the eurozone, and the contagion effects an exit might have on other economies.

U.S. stocks bounced back from their worst week of the year Monday, on renewed optimism that European leaders would find a way out of the sovereign debt crisis.

Economy: Following the opening bell, the National Association of Realtors said that existing home sales rose 3.4% in April to an annual rate of 4.62 million, up 10% year-over-year. Home affordability also came in at record levels.

"These sales levels are still relatively low, but a home is a big ticket item, and to see improvement in the housing market is always good," said Forrest. "It shows that buyers think their prospects are solid enough to agree to a mortgage."

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development cut its forecasts for the eurozone economy to a decline of 0.1% this year, and warned that sovereign debt problems pose a risk to the global economic recovery.

World markets: A report showing ebbing inflation in the United Kingdom raised hopes that lower price pressures might allow leaders to move toward more stimulus to respond to economic weakness.

European stocks ended higher. Britain's FTSE 100 (UKX) rose 1.9%, while the DAX (DAX) in Germany gained 1.7% and France's CAC 40 (CAC40) jumped 2.2%.

Fitch downgraded Japan, the world's No. 3 economy, and suggested further downgrades could be coming.

Asian markets ended before the Japan downgrade was announced. The Shanghai Composite (SHCOMP) rose 1.0%, the Hang Seng (HSI) in Hong Kong gained 0.6% and Japan's Nikkei (N225) climbed 1.1%.

Companies: Bank stocks were among the biggest gainers Tuesday, with shares of JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500) rising almost 5%. Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) and Citigroup (C, Fortune 500) rose more than 2%, while Morgan Stanley (MS, Fortune 500) and Goldman Sachs (GS, Fortune 500) added about 1%.

Best Buy (BBY, Fortune 500), which has been hit by a scandal that cost the CEO his job, along with store closings during the most recent quarter, reported solid earnings even as same-store sales fell 5.3%. The retailer also reaffirmed its earnings guidance of $3.50 to $3.80 a share, excluding restructuring charges. Analysts are only looking for earnings of $3.58 a share this year.

* Video - Best Buy in leaderless limbo

AutoZone (AZO, Fortune 500) also reported better than expected earnings of $6.28 a share, but weaker than expected revenue sent its shares lower.

Williams Sonoma (WSM) reported earnings per share of 34 cents excluding special items, which came in better than forecasts and year-earlier results. The retailer raised its earnings guidance for 2012.

Shares of Urban Outfitters (URBN) popped after the retailer topped earnings expectations.

Polo Ralph Lauren's (RL, Fortune 500) stock also edged up after the company's profit rose 29% on strong revenue and same-store sales growth. The company also doubled its quarterly dividend. But the company's revenue guidance for fiscal 2013 came in below expectations.

Shares of Dell (DELL, Fortune 500) tumbled in after-hours trading Tuesday after the computer maker posted a profit that was below Wall Street's expectations, and also issued a disappointing forecast for the second quarter, amid weak PC sales.

* Video - Why you shouldn't dump your bonds, yet

Currencies and commodities: The euro sank on the Greek news, falling more than 1% against the dollar. Earlier it was only off between 0.5% and 0.7%.

Oil for July delivery fell $1.38 to settle at $91.48 a barrel.

Gold futures for June delivery fell $22.10 to settle at $1,566.60 an ounce.

Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury slid, pushing the yield up to 1.79% from 1.74% late Monday.

Image

Market Update

4:30 pm : Leadership from Financials had lifted the broad market to a nice gain, but a dive by the euro prompted participants to sell. Ensuing pressure sent the major averages into the red before a final rebound took the stock market to the flat line.

Financials led the broad market through choppy trade this morning. The sector was up about 2% with help from shares of banks and diversified financial services outfits. The Financial sector's gains petered out into the afternoon and were fully forfeited in the final hour, but a bounce off of the flat line enabled the sector to book a 0.7% gain.

Tech stocks, which were leaders in the prior session, generally lagged during trade today. The sector settled with a 0.3% loss. Energy stocks matched that move, but Materials slid 0.6% to suffer the worst loss of any major sector. Materials stocks had outperformed in the prior session by posting a 3% gain.

Many retailers were unable to sustain their gains, forcing the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT 58.39, +0.05) back to the flat line after it had been up more than 1%. Quarterly reports from Best Buy (BBY 18.46, +0.29), Urban Outfitters (URBN 28.10, +1.94), and Polo Ralph Lauren (RL 150.27, +3.97) were in focus. Polo Ralph Lauren actually doubled its dividend to $0.40 per share.

News flow slowed in afternoon trade, so many became closely focused on comments from a former Greece prime minister who stated that the country may exit the euro. Although many believe that such a development would actually strengthen the euro, the currency sold off amid speculation about near-term costs and implications of the event. As of the final bell the euro trailed the dollar by about 1.0%. Prior to the open of trade it was learned that the OECD now expects a mild economic contraction in the euro area.

The Japanese yen was also hit with selling pressure. Its weakness followed a decision by analysts at Fitch to downgrade Japan's long-term debt rating to A+ from AA.

The greenback's gain didn't help the case for commodities. Broad selling pressure there sent the CRB Index to a 1.1% loss.

The only dose of domestic data centered on existing home sales, which set an annualized rate of 4.62 million during April. A rate of 4.65 million had been broadly expected.

Advancing Sectors: Financials +0.7%, Utilities +0.6%, Consumer Discretionary +0.3%, Industrials +0.2%, Consumer Staples +0.1%
Declining Sectors: Telecom -0.1%, Health Care -0.2%, Energy -0.3%, Tech -0.3%, Materials -0.6%DJ30 -1.67 NASDAQ -8.13 NQ100 -0.2% R2K -0.7% SP400 +0.2% SP500 +0.64 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 923/1.84 bln/1604 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1560/846 mln/1457

3:30 pm : Stocks are on the slide as they enter the final leg of trade. The action has the Nasdaq at a new session low, while both the Dow and the S&P 500 fight to remain narrowly above the neutral line.

As for commodities, they've wrapped up pit trade. Broad selling pressure there sent the CRB Index to a 1.1% loss.

Crude oil stayed in negative territory for all of pit trade. It came close to touching the unchanged line in morning action when it climbed to a session high of $92.84 per barrel. However, the energy component sold-off to a session low of $91.64 per barrel and eventually settled floor trade with a 1.1% loss at $91.85 per barrel. Today's weakness was partly attributed to an impending deal between the IAEA and Iran to allow Western nuclear inspectors into the country, thus easing fears of oil supply disruptions.

On the other hand, natural gas climbed higher into positive territory. It touched a session high of $2.73 per MMBtu as it headed into the close, and settled pit trade at $2.70 per MMBtu, or 3.1% higher.

A stronger dollar put pressure on precious metals. Both gold and silver began pit trade in negative territory and climbed into positive territory for respective session highs of $1590.30 per ounce and $28.77 per ounce by late morning, but the metals were unable to hold the gains and spent the afternoon trending lower. Gold settled with a 0.8% loss at $1576.60 per ounce, just above its session low of $1575.50 per ounce. Silver finished 0.6% lower at $28.15 per ounce, just above its session low of $28.09 per ounce.DJ30 +16.35 NASDAQ -5.65 SP500 +2.27 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1145/1.37 bln/1355 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1880/525 mln/1120

3:00 pm : Stocks enter the final hour of the session with varied gains, but the S&P 500 remains firmly higher as it works to build on the prior session rally. The broad market measure hasn't booked two consecutive gains since April.

Still, many investors seem reluctant to rush back into stocks after watching their steady decline for the past three weeks. Such reluctance has limited share volume, such that share volume on the NYSE hasn't even cleared a half billion today. DJ30 +51.16 NASDAQ +3.83 SP500 +6.91 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1140/1.27 bln/1355 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1870/480 mln/1130

2:30 pm : Now down 0.7% against the greenback, the euro has dropped to a new session low. Its weakness this afternoon coincides with waning support for stocks, which are still in positive territory but shy of session highs.DJ30 +58.88 NASDAQ +9.88 SP500 +8.02 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1160/1.17 bln/1330 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1890/435 mln/1110

2:00 pm : The Nasdaq recently returned to the neutral line and the S&P 500 is back at its early afternoon low. Tech, the largest sector by market weight, is now unchanged for the session. The sector has been hampered by semiconductor-related plays since the open. Natural resource plays like Materials and Energy are also relatively weak; both sectors are down 0.1%. They are current the three poorest performing sectors.DJ30 +37.65 NASDAQ +2.07 SP500 +5.33 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1235/1.06 bln/1235 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1895/395 mln/1070

1:30 pm : Results from an auction of 2-year Notes were released at 1:00 PM ET. The offering drew a bid-to-cover of 3.95, dollar demand of $138.3 billion, and an indirect bidder participation rate of 33.3%. For comparison, the prior auction drew a bid-to-cover of 3.76, dollar demand of $131.6 billion, and an indirect bidder rate of 32.1%, while an average of the past six auctions results in a bid-to-cover of 3.71, dollar demand of $129.9 billion, and an indirect bidder rate of 33.1%.

Despite the strength of the results, steady pressure has kept Treasuries near session lows. DJ30 +40.64 NASDAQ +5.92 SP500 +6.07 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1265/985 mln/1190 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1960/360 mln/1010

1:00 pm : The major averages are off of session highs, but still in positive territory. That has the S&P 500 positioned for its second straight gain -- the broad market measure has yet to book back-to-back this month.

Stocks fought through choppy action in early trade with help from Financials, which rallied to an early gain on the order of 2% before drifting off of that mark. The sector is still up 1.5%, which is greater than what any other sector has achieved today. Banks have been big drivers of the move after they lagged in the last session. Tech stocks were leaders yesterday, but today the sector has been a bit lackluster amid weakness in semiconductor-related plays.

Retailers have benefited from a strong bid following a handful of quarterly reports from the likes of Best Buy (BBY 18.48, +0.31), Urban Outfitters (URBN 28.26, +2.10), and Polo Ralph Lauren (RL 151.20, +4.90). The SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT 59.03, +0.69) is up in excess of 1%.

The advance today builds on the prior session bounce, which was the stock market's best one-day showing in about two months. Strength has persisted in the face of news that the OECD now expects a mild economic contraction in the euro area, and a decision by analysts at Fitch to downgrade Japan's long-term debt rating to A+ from AA. Amid those developments the euro is down 0.6% while the yen is down about 0.8%.

Existing home sales numbers provided participants with today's only dose of domestic data. For April they hit an annualized rate of 4.62 million, which is slightly less than the rate of 4.65 million that had been expected. DJ30 +58.61 NASDAQ +12.49 SP500 +8.59 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1240/910 mln/1205 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1950/330 mln/1010

12:30 pm : Treasuries have been under pressure all session. The action has taken the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note back up to about 1.80% after they had fallen fractionally below 1.70% for a record low late last week. At the shorter end of the yield curve the 2-year Note is yielding 0.31%. Results from an auction of 2-year Notes are due for release at the top of the hour.DJ30 +36.82 NASDAQ +7.66 SP500 +7.10 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1135/815 mln/1310 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1805/305 mln/1120

12:00 pm : With the euro down to a session low and trailing the dollar by about 0.6%, stocks have been surrendering gains in recent trade. The action has the S&P 500 back where it was two hours ago. Still, the stock market remains in positive territory, opening the door for its second straight gain. That's something that hasn't happened since April.DJ30 +40.18 NASDAQ +7.86 SP500 +7.17 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1350/690 mln/1055 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2070/255 mln/830

11:30 am : The dollar has moved up to reclaim gains that it forfeited about an hour ago. The greenback now sports a 0.3% gain against a basket of major foreign currencies. The dollar's advance has come largely against the euro and the yen. The euro currently trails the dollar by little more than 0.4%, while the yen has fallen about 0.8% versus the dollar. The euro's weakness comes amid news that the OECD now expects a mild economic contraction in the euro area, while the yen's slide follows news that analysts at Fitch downgraded Japan's long-term debt rating to A+ from AA.DJ30 +69.55 NASDAQ +18.17 SP500 +11.54 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1420/585 mln/955 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2190/220 mln/705

11:00 am : The stock market is at a new session high. Financials continue to lead the effort. The sector now sports a 2.2% gain. That's more than double the 0.9% gain achieved by Industrials, which make up the next best performing sectors.

Although Financials are easily outperforming the rest of the market, not every stock in the sector is faring so well. Blackrock (BLK 66.10, -1.63), Assurant (AIZ 35.29, -0.67), and Nasdaq OMX Group (NDAZ 22.74, -0.04) are wrestling with varied losses. DJ30 +64.59 NASDAQ +11.65 SP500 +17.66 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1510/475 mln/830 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2260/175 mln/615

10:30 am : The dollar has pulled back in recent trade, leaving it clinging to gain of only 0.1% against a basket of major foreign currencies.

Meanwhile, stocks have broken free from their morning chop so that the broad market now sports a strong gain.

Commodities remain mixed, however. That has the CRB Index down 0.1%.

Oil prices are currently down 0.3% to $92.60 per barrel, which is little changed from where they were in early pit trade. However, natural gas prices have bounded to $2.78 per MMBtu for a 3.4% gain.

Gold prices remain in the red with a modest loss; they are currently down 0.2% to $1585 per ounce. Silver has moved into positive territory, though; prices now sport a 0.5% gain at $28.47 per ounce. DJ30 +48.13 NASDAQ +14.93 SP500 +9.64 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1825/270 mln/960 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1825/105 mln/960

10:00 am : Broad market action remains choppy, but Financials have managed to extend their early ascent so that the sector now sports a 1.4% gain.

Existing home sales numbers were just released. They hit an annualized rate of 4.62 million in April. The consensus call among economists polled by Briefing.com had called for a rate of 4.65 million. The SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB 20.42, +0.29) is at its session high in the wake of the data. DJ30 -8.22 NASDAQ +4.45 SP500 +3.20 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1085/125 mln/1065 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1470/60 mln/1175

09:45 am : A choppy start has the Dow at the neutral line, but both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 are up with modest gains.

Financials are out in front after lagging in the prior session. Collectively, Financial issues are up 0.9%, which is far better than what any other sector has achieved this morning. Bank stocks are in particularly strong shape, resulting in a 1.2% gain for the KBW Bank Index. Meanwhile, Materials stocks are stuck at the flat line after they outperformed in the prior session by scoring a 3.0% gain. DJ30 +2.02 NASDAQ +8.15 SP500 +3.97 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +1.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +2.00. Stock futures had worked their way to a nice lead over fair value, but have since eased back so that a relatively flat start is anticipated. As support wanes with the approach of the open many are wondering whether or not the prior session's bounce -- the best single-session move in about two months -- was anything more than a one-day event. Europe's bourses have managed to maintain strong gains, however. In contrast, the euro continues to come under pressure, leaving it to trade with a 0.4% loss against the greenback. As was the case in the prior session, news flow is rather limited. That said, there is a handful of retailers out with quarterly results, most of which exceeded expectations. Economic data is limited to an existing home sales report at 10:00 AM ET.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +1.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +2.00. Crude oil prices are down 0.2% to $92.65 per barrel in early pit trade. Electronic trade took them up above $92.90 per barrel about an hour ago. Natural gas prices are presently up 0.9% to $2.71 per MMBtu after they slumped yesterday. Precious metals are back under pressure, such that gold prices are down 0.5% to $1580 per ounce, while silver is off by 0.3% to $28.25 per ounce.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +2.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +2.30. Retailers are in focus after Urban Outfitters (URBN 26.26, +0.10) announced last evening better-than-expected earnings, despite a relatively light revenue figure. Such was also the case for AutoZone (AZO 357.50, -11.05) this morning. Polo Ralph Lauren (RL 146.00, -0.30) posted an upside earnings surprise on stronger-than-expected revenue, and even doubled its dividend to $0.40 per share, but its outlook was somewhat underwhelming. Best Buy (BBY 18.22, +0.05) shares have given back most of a premarket bounce that came in response to the company's latest quarterly report, which featured earnings of $0.72 per share on revenue of $11.61 billion. The company kept its guidance for fiscal 2013. Express (EXPR 17.70, -5.39) had an ugly report that featured an earnings miss and downside guidance. Note: ticker quotes reflect premarket prices.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +5.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +9.00. A decidedly positive tone in the prior session snapped a six-session losing streak by providing stocks with their best one-day bounce in two months. Momentum from the move had faded overnight, but a bout of buying in the last hour has helped lift stock futures. A positive tone is evident in Europe, where the continent's major bourses are sporting strong gains in the face of a reduced growth forecast for the Euro area by the OECD. While yields on most of Europe's debt are down, so is the euro. Asia's averages also performed well in overnight action, getting in their gains before analysts at Fitch issued a downgrade of Japan's debt rating.

06:23 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -1.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -6.50.

06:23 am : Nikkei...8729.29...+95.40...+1.10%. Hang Seng...19039.15...+116.80...+0.60%.

06:23 am : FTSE...5346.78...+42.30...+0.80%. DAX...6371.97...+40.90...+0.70%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader, http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader and http://chart.ly/users/wrbtrader

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