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 Post subject: May 17th Thursday 2012 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +22.20
PostPosted: Thu May 17, 2012 11:08 pm 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)

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click on the above image to view today's performance verification

Price Action Trade Performance for Today: +22.20 points or $2220 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, all trades were posted real-time in the free #FuturesTrades chat room. You can read today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs for details (e.g. time, price, contract size) about each one of my trades from entry to exit along with price action commentary as the trade traversed in comparison to what's shown in the above image...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=104&t=1224.

To join our free chat room...log-in instructions located at a different forum @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=630

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my price action trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our price action trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=152&t=1459

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Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/IMF actions or any important global economic events that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables (key market events) causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that results in swing points and strong continuation price actions. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for my technical analysis. Just as important, these summaries becomes my archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past...something I can not get from my broker statements alone.

Flight To Safety: 10-year Yield At Record Low

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click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Investors fled stocks and made a rush toward the safety of U.S. Treasuries Thursday, sending 10-year yield to a record low close, as worries about Greece's future in the eurozone continued to escalate.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) dropped 156 points, or 1.2%, and the S&P 500 (SPX) lost 20 points, or 1.5%. The day's retreat marked the fifth day of declines for the Dow and S&P 500.

The Nasdaq (COMP) closed in the red for a fourth consecutive session, shedding 60 points, or 2.2%.

All three indexes ended at the lowest levels since January.

Concerns about Greece's place in the 17-nation eurozone continued to build, pushing investors toward U.S. government debt, which is perceived as a safe haven investment. The yield on the 10-year Treasury was 1.706% Thursday, the lowest closing level on record.

* Greece downgraded deeper into junk

European leaders voiced support Wednesday for keeping Greece in the body, but said the debt-ridden country must stick with unpopular austerity measures if it wants to continue receiving help.

Greek voters rebelled against those measures in the May 6 elections, denying the ruling coalition -- which had agreed to the bailout terms -- the votes needed to form a new government. Greek voters will go to the polls again on June 17.

Though the ability to form a governing coalition remains uncertain, the main fear is that an anti-austerity ruling party could cause the bailout deal to unravel, leading to a Greek default and an exit from the euro.

Citing the "heightened risk that Greece may not be able to sustain its membership of Economic and Monetary Union," Fitch Ratings downgraded Greece's credit rating by one notch to CCC.

Adding to those concerns, the European Central Bank has suspended its lending to some Greek banks that need to sufficiently boost their capital.

Meanwhile, a growing number of depositors are withdrawing their money amid worries that their savings could be converted to a devalued currency if Greece drops the euro.

The rapid withdrawals add pressure on the Greek banking system, which is the "primary trigger for some from of the eurozone break-up," said Jonathan Loynes, chief European economist at Capital Economics.

Investors remain worried about what a Greek exit from the eurozone would mean for global financial systems.

"Not surprisingly, concerns are growing that bank runs could soon become a regular feature in other troubled countries in the region deemed at risk of following Greece's lead," said Loynes.

Adding to Europe's troubles, Spain got yet another slap in the face Thursday, when Moody's Investors Service downgraded sixteen Spanish banks including giants Banco Santander and BBVA, saying the Spanish government's "ability to provide support to the banks has reduced." Earlier the ratings agency downgraded four of the country's regional governments.

Stocks finished in the red Wednesday, as positive economic data in the U.S. failed to counter increasing pessimism over Greece's fiscal woes.

* Video - Can Greece leave the euro?

Companies: Facebook (FB)priced its initial public offering at $38 a share after the closing bell Thursday. Shares of Facebook will begin trading Friday on the Nasdaq.

The offering raised $16 billion, making it the most valuable tech IPO in history.

* Facebook's IPO price: $38 per share

Retail giants Wal-Mart (WMT, Fortune 500) and Sears Holdings (SHLD, Fortune 500) were among the biggest gainers Thursday. Wal-Mart, the nation's largest retailer, posted stronger-than-expected quarterly earnings and sales.

Rival Sears also reported a profit, even as sales declined, thanks to a boost from selling real estate assets. The retailer also announced it was looking at a partial spin-off of its Canadian operations.

Shares of JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500) fell Thursday, a day after the director of the FBI confirmed his agency had launched an initial investigation into a $2 billion trading loss suffered by the bank.

Economy: Initial jobless claims were unchanged in the week ended May 12 from the revised figure of 370,000. The number came in weaker than expected.

Foreclosures fell for the third straight month in April, reaching the lowest level since 2007, according to tracking service RealtyTrac.

A Philadelphia Fed report showed that regional manufacturing unexpectedly plunged in May for the first time in eight months. The Philly Fed index fell to -5.8 from 8.5 in April. Economists were expecting the index to increase to 8.8. Any reading below zero indicates weakness.

The index of leading indicators, which gauges the economy's performance over the next three to six months, was also discouraging. The index fell 0.1% in April, disappointing economists who expected it to rise 0.2%.

World markets: European stocks slid on Thursday. Britain's FTSE 100 (UKX) and the DAX (DAX) in Germany slipped 1.2% and France's CAC 40 (CAC40) fell 1.1%.

Most Asian markets ended higher following a report that showed the Japanese economy grew 1% in the first quarter, which was much better than forecasts. Tokyo's Nikkei (N225) gained 0.9% on the news, while the Shanghai Composite (SHCOMP) rose 1.4%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng (HSI) slipped 0.3%.

Currencies and commodities: The dollar fell against the Japanese yen, but edged higher against the euro and British pound.

Oil for June delivery edged down 25 cents to settle at $92.56 a barrel.

Gold futures for June delivery rose $38.30 to settle at $1,5574.90 an ounce.

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Market Update

4:30 pm : Stocks started the session near the neutral line, but ultimately the path of least resistance was into the red, resulting in the stock market’s tenth loss in 12 sessions and new multi-month lows for the major averages.

Market participants that opted to abide by the adage, “Sell in May and Go Away” appear prescient with stocks on the slide and down more than 6% month to date. Precarious conditions in the Eurozone have prompted many to take their cues from the euro, often pressuring stocks when the currency takes a dive. Despite efforts to stabilize against the dollar, the euro ultimately eased down to a loss of about 0.2% as of the closing bell. At about $1.270, the euro hasn’t been that low since January.

Giving further credence to Eurozone concerns, Greece's long-term rating was cut to CCC from B- by analysts at Fitch in response to heightened risk that the country will exit the euro. After it was indicated yesterday that some of Greece’s banks may no longer be eligible for the services of the European Central Bank, speculation picked up today that Spanish banks may be on the brink of another downgrade.

Negativity surrounding European banks tainted the perception of domestic Financial stocks, forcing the sector down to a 2.1% loss.

Consumer Discretionary stocks were actually the worst performers of the session. They sank 2.7%. Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF 36.55, -2.95) extended the precipitous drop that it suffered in the prior session, while GameStop (GME 18.52, -2.32) and Dollar Tree (DLTR 95.13, -6.17) both fell hard in response to downside guidance that cast a pall over earnings results. Bucking the negative broad market bias and calls for a strategic overhaul, Sears Holding (SHLD 52.42, +1.55) pleased shareholders by announcing a spin-off of Sears Canada alongside its latest quarterly results. Retail giant Walmart (WMT 61.67, +2.48) also scored an impressive gain, thanks to a strong report.

Apple (AAPL 530.12, -15.96) dropped to a new two-month low as traders rotated out of the Tech heavyweight. Shares of AAPL had rallied almost 60% from the start of the year to their record high in April, but they are now down more than 15% since setting their zenith. The stock’s slide today created an especially heavy drag on the Nasdaq.

Widespread weakness among stocks sent the Volatility Index up more than 8% to 24 for the first time in 2012. The euphemistically titled “Fear Gauge” is now up in excess of 60% from the lows that it set less than two months ago.

Heightened volatility and continued weakness among stocks resulted in further rotation into Treasuries. It was reported shortly after the close that the Note’s yield set a new record low narrowly beneath 1.70%.

Data today ranged from the unsurprising to the disappointing. Specifically, the latest initial jobless claims tally totaled 370,000, which is unchanged from the prior week and on par with the 365,000 claims that had been broadly expected.

The May reading of Philadelphia Fed Index fell to -5.8 from 8.5 in the prior month. Economists polled by Briefing.com had expected, on average, an improvement to 8.8.

Leading Indicators also surprised to the downside. They showed a 0.1% decline, which contrasts with the 0.2% increase that had been broadly forecasted.

Advancing Sectors: Telecom +0.4%
Declining Sectors: Utilities -0.6%, Consumer Staples -0.7%, Energy -0.7%, Health Care -1.0%, Tech -1.7%, Industrials -2.0%, Materials -2.1%, Financials -2.1%, Consumer Discretionary -2.7%DJ30 -156.06 NASDAQ -60.35 NQ100 -2.1% R2K -2.3% SP400 -2.7% SP500 -19.94 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 484/2.06 bln/2023 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 420/945 mln/2665

3:30 pm : Crude oil began pit trade in positive territory and set a session high of $93.64 per barrel just minutes later. However, the energy component gave up all of its gain and then struggled in negative territory, finally settling with a 0.3% loss at $92.54 per barrel. Meanwhile, momentum behind the recent climb in natural gas ended as the commodity opened in the red and then extended its slide following inventory data that showed a build of 61 bcf when a build of 60 bcf was what had been widely anticipated. Session lows were set near $2.51 per MMBtu, but a rally into the close took prices up to $2.60 per MMBtu for a 0.8% loss.

Gold and silver came off their 2012 lows as they climbed as high as $1579.80 per ounce and $28.30 per ounce, respectively, in today’s pit trade. Strength in the pair came partly in response to a flatter dollar that followed and a surprisingly weak Philadelphia Fed Index number. Despite a slight pullback into the close, gold managed to book a gain of 2.5% as it closed at $1574.80 per ounce, while silver settled 3.2% higher at $28.04 per ounce.DJ30 -105.50 NASDAQ -43.97 SP500 -13.80 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 700/1.51 bln/1780 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 530/605 mln/2515

3:00 pm : Stocks extended their afternoon descent so that they came within close reach of session lows, but support there has helped steady things. Still, without any rally in the final 60 minutes of trade the stock market will suffer its tenth loss in 12 sessions -- in the two days during that span that the S&P 500 did not close with a loss it finished flat or with a tepid gain of 0.3%.DJ30 -79.13 NASDAQ -37.50 SP500 -10.99 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 655/1.43 bln/1805 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 510/560 mln/2535

2:30 pm : Stocks are on the slide again, but the major averages aren't quite back to session lows. Their downturn continues to prompt participants to pile into Treasuries, driving the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note closer to historical lows just beneath 1.70%.

The Volatility Index -- often dubbed the Fear Gauge -- has moved back above 23, which is where it was around noon ET. That makes for a gain of almost 4% today. Moreover, it puts the VIX up about 40% from its late April low. DJ30 -83.90 NASDAQ -38.47 SP500 -11.32 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 660/1.30 bln/1780 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 510/515 mln/2525

2:00 pm : Headlines have surfaced that Greece's long-term rating has been cut to CCC from B- by analysts at Fitch in response to heightened risk that the country will exit the euro. A couple of months ago Fitch had actually upgraded Greece to B- because of a successful bond swap.DJ30 -76.44 NASDAQ -32.91 SP500 -10.68 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 755/1.21 bln/1670 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 555/480 mln/2450

1:30 pm : Stocks are struggling to extend their climb from session lows. Many market participants are likely looking for the euro to first extend its recent move into positive territory -- it is now up less than 0.1% against the greenback.DJ30 -57.63 NASDAQ -24.97 SP500 -7.35 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 805/1.11 bln/1590 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 620/445 mln/2370

1:00 pm : Stocks are on track for their tenth loss in 12 sessions. Pressure persists despite the euro's effort to overcome selling pressure.

Market participants showed little response to a generally in-line initial jobless claims count of 370,000, but shortly after the open selling was stoked by a disappointing Philadelphia Fed Index reading of -5.8 and a 0.1% decline in Leading Indicators.

Stocks were able to recover as the euro attempted to trim losses after touching a new multi-month low, but its inability to extend the move stirred renewed selling interest among stocks. That sent the broad market down to a loss of almost 1%, but with the euro back at the neutral line the stock market is attempting to rebound.

Financials remain a heavy drag on trade. The sector's 0.9% loss isn't as bad as the 1.4% drop suffered by the Consumer Discretionary sector, but its market weight makes it more influential in the direction of broad trade.

Defensive sectors have done a decent job of limiting losses. Consumer Staples, currently flat, have been propped up by Walmart (WMT 62.23, +3.04), which has jumped sharply to challenge its monthly high in the wake of a strong quarterly report. Telecom, up 0.6%, is in the strongest shape as integrated plays attract buyers.

Although the dollar's upward momentum has slowed -- it is currently down fractionally against a basket of major foreign currencies -- Treasuries have been bid higher. The action has taken the yield on the 10-year Note to less than 1.75%, or within only a few basis points of historical lows. DJ30 -77.88 NASDAQ -32.33 SP500 -10.16 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 710/945 mln/1685 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 545/405 mln/2450

12:30 pm : Stocks are pushing up from session lows, but marked losses remain. Tech and Financials, down 0.8% and 0.9%, respectively, are likely the heaviest drags on trade due to their market weight, but Consumer Discretionary stocks are in the worst shape with a collective loss of 1.6%.

The euro has managed to flatten out against the dollar. It has been under pressure for most of the morning as a result of continued concerns about precarious financial, fiscal, and economic conditions in both the core and periphery of Europe. Most recently, concerns about another downgrade of Spanish banks were revived. DJ30 -71.33 NASDAQ -32.72 SP500 -9.89 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 595/810 mln/1785 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 455/355 mln/2520

12:00 pm : All three major equity averages are now at new session lows. The weak price action has prompted many market participants to rotate into Treasuries. As a result, the benchmark 10-year Note has climbed out of the red to trade with a solid gain, driving down its yield to within a few basis points of historical lows.DJ30 -67.52 NASDAQ -33.52 SP500 -9.35 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 705/705 mln/1650 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 595/310 mln/2335

11:30 am : The Nasdaq has descended to a new session low. Its loss is now double that of the Dow.

The Tech-rich Nasdaq's outsized loss comes as shares of Apple (AAPL 534.48, -11.60) drop to a 2% loss -- at about a half trillion dollars, double the market cap of Microsoft (MSFT 30.00, +0.10), AAPL boasts the greatest market cap of any stock. DJ30 -47.26 NASDAQ -25.48 SP500 -6.40 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 790/565 mln/1510 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 730/255 mln/2155

11:00 am : Stocks have recovered from their recent retreat, but the broad market remains in the red with a modest loss.

Financials were a heavy drag in the early going, but the sector has managed to more than halve its loss so that it is now down 0.4% for the day. Shares of regional lenders like Regions Financial (RF 6.35, +0.08), Comerica (CMA 30.15, +0.13), and KeyCorp (KEY 7.56, +0.05) are helping to lead the effort.

Of the major sectors, Telecom is at the top of today's best performers. The sector currently sports a 0.4% gain, thanks to strength in shares of integrated players. DJ30 -31.07 NASDAQ -16.62 SP500 -3.61 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 930/435 mln/1310 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 825/205 mln/2040

10:35 am : Natural gas prices were down little more than 1% in the minutes that preceded the latest weekly inventory count, which showed a build of 61 bcf when a build of 60 bcf had been broadly expected. Prices are now down to $2.61 per MMbtu for a 2.8% loss.

Crude oil finally caught a bid this morning, but the energy component has surrendered a substantial portion of its gain. Oil prices were up to about $93.90 per barrel immediatly before the open of pit trade, but they have since pulled back to $93.20 per barrel for a 0.4% gain.

Precious metals prices are on the climb after logging yet another loss in the prior session. Gold prices are up a sharp 2.1% to $1569 per ounce, while silver sports an even more impressive gain of 2.4% at $27.86 per ounce. DJ30 -47.98 NASDAQ -12.25 SP500 -4.75 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 800/295 mln/1355 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 745/145 mln/2060

10:05 am : Stocks have rolled over to trade with sizable losses. The drop is due to disappointment over the latest dose of data.

The Philadelphia Fed Index fell in May to -5.8 from 8.5 in the prior month. It had been widely expected to improve to 8.8.

Leading Indicators also surprised to the downside. They showed a 0.1% decline, which contrasts with the 0.2% increase that had been broadly forecasted. DJ30 -71.67 NASDAQ -20.70 SP500 -6.25 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 785/115 mln/1235 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 890/70 mln/1765

09:45 am : A recent reversal by the euro has prompted sellers to redouble their efforts after they had eased up shortly before the open. The euro is now down almost 0.3% against the greenback. Earlier this morning it set a new multi-month low narrowly beneath $1.27.

Financials are a heavy drag in early trade. Down 0.9%, the sector's loss is worse than that of any other group. Banks and diversified financial services stocks are in particularly rough shape. In contrast, the Consumer Staples sector has managed to hold a slight gain, thanks largely to strength in Walmart (WMT 61.92, +2.73), which is up sharply to trade within about $0.50 of its one-month high following a pleasing quarterly report.

Due in just a few minutes are the latest readings on Leading Indicators and the Philadelphia Fed Index. DJ30 -21.68 NASDAQ -5.77 SP500 -2.30 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +1.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +0.50. Stock futures now point to a flat open after working their way through some moderate selling pressure earlier this morning. Their upturn comes alongside efforts by the euro to trim losses; the euro now trails the dollar by only 0.1%. Europe's major bourses are also on the mend after trading with relatively sizable losses. Quarterly earnings have mattered little to market participants this morning. Meanwhile, data today has featured a slightly stronger-than-expected GDP reading from Japan and a generally in-line count of initial weekly jobless claims. Still to come are Leading Indicators and the latest Philadelphia Fed Index, both of which are due at 10:00 AM ET.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.00. Crude oil prices have pushed higher after descending to new 2012 lows yesterday; prices were last quoted at $93.55 per barrel, which makes for a 0.8% gain. Natural gas prices are under pressure after extending their recent climb in prior session trade; futures prices for the energy component are currently down 0.4% to $2.68 per MMBtu ahead of weekly inventory data at 10:30 AM ET. Precious metals have finally attracted buyers after booking multi-month closing lows. In turn, gold prices have climbed to $1554 per ounce for a 1.1% gain, while silver sports a 1.9% gain at $27.73 per ounce.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -3.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -8.30. Stock futures continue to trade with moderate weakness in the wake of the latest weekly jobless claims numbers. Initial jobless claims for the week ended May 12 totaled 370,000, which is only slightly more than the tally of 365,000 that had been expected, on average, among economists polled by Briefing.com. The latest count is unchanged from the prior week's upwardly revised total. As for continuing claims, they increased to almost 3.27 million from about 3.25 million.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -3.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -8.80. The stock market suffered its ninth loss in 11 sessions yesterday. A negative tone lingers this morning as the euro extends its downtrend for another 0.3% loss against the greenback. Europe's major bourses are also in the red as traders consider the possibility of another round of bank downgrades amid already precarious conditions.

Walmart (WMT 61.33, +2.14) is the most widely held name in a handful of earnings reports. The retail giant reported an upside surprise for the latest quarter, earning shares an early bid. Note: ticker quote reflects the latest premarket price. This morning's economic calendar features the latest weekly initial claims count, the latest Philadelphia Fed Index, and a leading indicators reading.

06:16 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +1.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.00.

06:16 am : Nikkei...8876.59...+75.40...+0.90%. Hang Seng...19200.93...-58.90...-0.30%.

06:16 am : FTSE...5362.08...-43.20...-0.80%. DAX...6350.73...-33.50...-0.50%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader, http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader and http://chart.ly/users/wrbtrader

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