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 Post subject: May 4th Friday 2012 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +12.70
PostPosted: Fri May 04, 2012 9:30 pm 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)

Attachment:
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click on the above image to view today's performance verification
please note the displayed points screen does not represent the commissions/fees screen


Price Action Trade Performance for Today: +12.70 points or $1270 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, all trades were posted real-time in the free #FuturesTrades chat room. You can read today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs for details (e.g. time, price, contract size) about each one of my trades from entry to exit along with price action commentary as the trade traversed in comparison to what's shown in the above image...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=104&t=1212.

To join our free chat room...registration instructions located at a different forum @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=630

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my price action trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our price action trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=152&t=1459

-----------------------------

Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/IMF actions or any important global economic events that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables (key market events) causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that results in swing points and strong continuation price actions. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for my technical analysis. Just as important, these summaries becomes my archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past...something I can not get from my broker statements alone.

S&P Ends Worst Week Of 2012

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click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- U.S. stocks sold off Friday, ending the week lower, after a government report showed that employers added fewer-than-expected jobs in April.

Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) lost 168 points, or 1.3%, to end at 13,038. The S&P 500 (SPX) slid 22 points, or 1.6%, to 1,369. The Nasdaq (COMP) fell 68 points, or 2.2%, to finish at 2,956.

The major indexes all ended lower for the week, after posting two consecutive weekly gains. The S&P 500 fell 2.3% over the last five trading days, marking its biggest weekly decline of the year. The Dow lost 1.3% and the Nasdaq fell 3.7%.

The energy sector was under pressure as oil prices fell 4.4% to below $100 a barrel. Exxon (XOM, Fortune 500) and Chevron (CVX, Fortune 500) were among the worst performers on the Dow.

Investors flocked to the bond market amid a broad flight to safety. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell sharply to 1.88%.

The April jobs report showed a net gain of 115,000 jobs, far less than the 160,000 forecast by economists surveyed by CNNMoney. However, the report also showed upward revisions to the February and March jobs figures and a drop in the unemployment rate to 8.1%.

"This is the labor equivalent of running in place while along the way, periodically, someone keeps stepping on your foot," said Kevin Giddis, director of fixed-income at Raymond James Morgan Keegan.

* Where unemployment is tumbling

Giddis said investors in the stock market are still hoping for more action from the Federal Reserve. In the bond market, he said investors are expecting subdued growth and low inflation.

"What today's numbers have exposed is that there is no quick fix, and traders look to be settling in for a long summer," Giddis said.

Meanwhile, investors were also cautious ahead of key political elections this weekend in Europe.

In France, socialist candidate Francois Hollande is widely expected to defeat president Nicolas Sarkozy. Greek voters will go to the polls to determine which political parties will make up the new governing coalition.

U.S. stocks slipped Thursday, as the encouraging initial claims report competed with a weaker-than-expected reading on the U.S. service sector.

Economy: Before Friday's report, the week had already brought conflicting data on the labor market, with payroll processor ADP reporting that private-sector job growth has slowed, but the Labor Department announced that initial jobless claims declined.

"The pace of job creation over the last few months is well below last year," said Mark Martiak, senior wealth strategist at Premier/First Allied Securities. "The trend is not looking very positive in terms of job creation." (America's Jobs Crisis)

As hiring slows, investors have been anticipating more action from the Federal Reserve. Some investors expect the central bank to launch a third round of bond purchases, a policy known as quantitative easing.
0:00 /1:35

* Video - Workforce exodus in effect

However, the central bank continues to expect modest improvement in the job market this year. Last month, the Fed said it expects the unemployment rate will fall to between 7.8% and 8% by the end of the year.

"I don't see QE3 coming into play," Martiak said. "I think the Fed has done everything they can for now."

The weak job market could prompt the Fed to extend a program called Operation Twist, which is set to wind down soon, according to Steven Ricchiuto who is a chief economist at Mizuho USA.

Under Operation Twist, the central bank has been using the proceeds from assets in its portfolio to buy longer-term Treasury debt. The goal is to pump money into the economy without expanding the Fed's balance sheet.

* The biggest short: Green Mountain bears rejoice

Companies: After the market closed, Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA, Fortune 500) reported first-quarter net income of $3.2 billion, up from $1.5 billion in the same period a year ago.

Facebook set a price range Thursday of $28 to $35 per share for its initial public offering. The company also upped the maximum size of its offering to $13.6 billion, up from its previous $5 billion estimate.

First Solar (FSLR) shares fell after the company reported a steep quarterly loss late Thursday related to restructuring and announced a new CEO.

AIG (AIG, Fortune 500) shares fell despite earnings that came in well ahead of analyst expectations late Thursday.

Chesapeake Energy (CHK, Fortune 500) shares rose after the company confirmed that it's facing an inquiry from the Securities and Exchange Commission in the wake of revelations about CEO Aubrey McClendon's controversial compensation program.
0:00 /4:56Chesapeake's CEO under fire

LinkedIn (LNKD) shares jumped after the social media company reported strong earnings and revenue that doubled versus last year.

World markets: European markets ended lower. Britain's FTSE 100 (UKX) lost 1.9%, France's CAC 40 (CAC40) sank 1.8% and the DAX (DAX) in Germany dropped 2%.

Asian markets finished mixed. The Shanghai Composite (SHCOMP) edged up 0.5%, while the Hang Seng (HSI) in Hong Kong fell about 1.1%. Tokyo was closed for a holiday.
Bond yields are going to surge! Eventually?

Currencies and commodities: The dollar was slightly stronger against the euro, the British pound and the Japanese yen.

Oil for June delivery fell $4.05 to settle at $98.56 a barrel.

Gold futures for June delivery rose $10.40 to end at $1,645.20 an ounce.

Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury rose following the jobs report, while the yield fell to 1.88% from 1.92% late Thursday.

Image

Market Update

4:30 pm : Stocks were up nicely a few days ago, but fell in the last three sessions to finish the week at a low point, giving the S&P 500 a 2.4% weekly loss -- its worst weekly performance of the year. The sell-off on Friday followed a disappointing jobs report and concerted selling of the market's most influential sectors.

Premarket participants initially had only a modestly negative response to the April payrolls report, which inidcated that nonfarm jobs increased by 115,000 and nonfarm private payrolls increased by 130,000. However, both came short of Briefing.com consensus estimates for increases of 162,000 and 167,000, respectively. The headline unemployment rate of 8.1% was slightly less than the 8.2% that had been broadly anticipated, though.

A flurry of selling sank stocks upon the open. The effort gradually gained momentum into early afternoon trade, leaving stocks to drift along session lows for the final few hours of the day. Weakness was widespread, but Energy and Tech stocks were hit the hardest. Both settled with losses in excess of 2%. Financials fell 1.6%.

Utilities stocks made gains in the face of broad market weakness. The defensive-oriented sector's 0.2% gain was helped along by a few better-than-expected earnings reports from industry players -- the latest round of earnings results was generally uninspiring, however.

An interest in safety prompted some to rotate into the dollar, which advanced 0.3% against a basket of major forein currencies today. It gained about 1.0% for the week.

Treasuries also traded higher. In turn, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note fell to a three-month low of less than 1.90%.

Precious metals attracted buyers, gaining their only gain of the week. Losses in previous sessions ultimately led gold and silver to finish the week 1.2% lower at $1645.40 per ounce and 3.1% lower at $31.42 per ounce, respectively.

Elsewhere in the commodity complex, crude oil prices were cut down aggressively. The energy component closed pit trade at a new three-month low of $98.49 per barrel with a 6.1% loss for the week. Broad market weakness amid macro concerns and reports that oil production in Iraq is expected to pick up exacerbated selling pressure.

Although it was learned yesterday that initial weekly jobless claims fell more than expected from the prior week to 365,000, market participants were given a clue on Wednesday that April private payrolls might not have been as strong as economists had predicted when the latest ADP Employment Report suggested that nonfarm private payrolls increased by only 119,000, contrasting with calls for an increase of 170,000.

Other data failed to provide an entirely positive picture, given that the ISM Manufacturing Index made surprise improvement to 54.8 from 53.4 in the prior month, but the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index fell from 56.0 in the prior month to 53.5 for April, missing expectations for a print of 55.5. China reported a Manufacturing PMI reading of 53.3, which is its best reading in about one year, but it is still less than what had been widely expected. Most of Europe also reported disappointing Manufacturing PMI readings this week.

Personal spending increased by 0.3% during March, but that's a slower clip than the 0.5% increase that had been expected, on average, among economists polled by Briefing.com. The smaller-than-expected increase came despite a stronger-than-expected pickup in personal income, which increased by 0.4% when a 0.2% increase had been widely anticipated. As for core personal consumption expenditures (PCE), they increased by 0.2% month over month, as had been broadly expected. DJ30 -168.32 NASDAQ -67.96 NQ100 -2.5% R2K -1.8% SP400 -1.6% SP500 -22.47 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 501/1.93 bln/2017 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 733/825 mln/2282

3:30 pm : Broad market weakness following a disappointing payrolls report and reports that oil production in Iraq is expected to pick up have exacerbated selling pressure on crude oil. The energy component traded deeper into negative territory to settle the week 6.1% lower at a new three-month low of $98.49 per barrel. Natural gas also sold off into negative territory and was unable to recover losses. However, despite today’s decline, it finished the week with a 4.6% gain at $2.28 per MMBtu, or 14% higher from a recent low set on April 19.

Precious metals rallied in morning pit trade following the same report. Although they ran out of steam mid-day and dropped to the unchanged line, both gold and silver were able to reclaim their gains and close in positive territory for the first time this week. Losses in previous sessions ultimately led gold and silver to finish the week 1.2% lower at $1645.40 per ounce and 3.1% lower at $31.42 per ounce, respectively. Action in the metals earlier this week coincided with a rally by the dollar in response to positive ISM data and with a disappointing ADP Employment Report.DJ30 -158.71 NASDAQ -62.29 SP500 -20.88 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 545/1.50 bln/1970 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 700/540 mln/2290

3:00 pm : Stocks remain stuck at session lows as they enter the final hour of the day. Widespread weakness has stocks on track for their third straight loss, and the worst one-day drop in almost a month.DJ30 -167.78 NASDAQ -63.35 SP500 -21.55 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 530/1.41 bln/1980 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 670/505 mln/2310

2:30 pm : A recent slip has stocks testing session lows as they enter the final leg of the day. The most influential sectors are under the most pressure -- Financials are down 1.8%, Tech stocks are down 2.2%, and Energy stocks are down 2.4%.DJ30 -178.50 NASDAQ -64.72 SP500 -23.26 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 515/1.30 bln/1960 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 670/460 mln/2290

2:00 pm : Steady pressure has stocks drifting along near session lows. Sentiment has been negative since the open.

Today's slide stands as the third straight loss for the stock market. During that time the S&P 500 has fallen about 2.5%. It hasn't had such a poor three-session showing since a 2.8% drop a little less than a month ago.

Recent weakness comes amid concerns about macro conditions, especially after jobs data today showed that payrolls grew by a smaller-than-expected clip during April. DJ30 -157.69 NASDAQ -59.57 SP500 -20.14 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 530/1.20 bln/1915 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 690 mln/425 mln/2270

1:30 pm : Treasuries are holding at session highs as buyers remain in control. Their efforts have been supported by equity market weakness that has occurred on the heels of a weaker-than-expected jobs report. That has the yield on the 10-year Note down to its lowest level since February 3.

The belly of the curve is seeing the biggest decline as both the 7-year and 10-year yields are down more than 6 basis points to 1.277% and 1.877%, respectively. Significant flattening of the yield curve has the 2-10-year spread tighter at 161.5 basis points and testing critical support at 160 basis points. DJ30 -155.11 NASDAQ -59.34 SP500 -19.94 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 485/1.12 bln/1965 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 655/395 mln/2290

1:00 pm : A steady sell-off has stocks down with steep losses following a disappointing monthly payrolls report that indicated 115,000 nonfarm payrolls were added in April. It also indicated that nonfarm private payrolls were up 130,000 in April. Neither came close to the consensus.

Although weakness has become widespread, Energy stocks are weighing heavily for the third straight session. The sector is down 2.2%, or about 5% during the course of the past three days. A near 5% drop in oil prices to $97.65 per barrel amid broad market weakness and word that oil production in Iraq is expected to pick up has the energy component at its lowest price since early February.

With many traders turning defensive, Utilities stocks have mustered a 0.3% gain. They stand as the only sector in positive territory.

The dollar has also attracted additional buying interest with the day's progression. It was essentially flat this morning, but now sports a 0.3% gain against a basket of major foreign currencies; it is up 1.0% week to date.

Buying interest among Treasuries has also picked up. In turn, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note is trading at a three-month low of less than 1.90%. DJ30 -159.31 NASDAQ -59.10 SP500 -20.63 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 460/1.00 bln/1975 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 560/355 mln/2355

12:30 pm : Stocks are sitting at session lows with steep losses. The Nasdaq, now down 2%, is in the worst shape of the major equity averages. Its outsized loss comes in conjunction with pronounced pressure against large-cap Tech plays.DJ30 -165.52 NASDAQ -61.02 SP500 -21.33 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 485/905 mln/1935 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 605/320 mln/2320

12:00 pm : Stocks have extended their steady descent to new session lows. This is shaping up to be the stock market's worst single-session slide since a 1.7% drop on April 10, when concerns about the sovereign debt of Europe returned to the forefront.

Macro themes continue to play a strong role in daily trade. After all, today's action comes after market participants were dealt a disappointing monthly payrolls report. Just last week traders learned that the economy expanded at a smaller-than-expected pace during the first quarter. DJ30 -166.73 NASDAQ -58.66 SP500 -21.35 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 475/750 mln/1920 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 600/275 mln/2290

11:30 am : Stocks have resumed their slide after an attempt to stabilize. Although the path lower isn't as steep as it was in the early going, stocks have been pushed down to new depths.

Negativity today has stoked volatility, such that the Volatility Index is up more than 6% this session. It is still well below its monthly high, which was set when the VIX moved above 20 in early April.

Heightened volatility and widespread weakness among stocks has bolstered buying interest among Treasuries. In turn, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note is trading at a three-month low of less than 1.90%. DJ30 -143.50 NASDAQ -56.27 SP500 -18.92 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 495/645 mln/1870 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 635/240 mln/2240

11:00 am : Stocks appear to have stabilized after descending to large losses in the first hour of trade, but weakness remains widespread with declining issues outnumbering advancing issues by almost 4-to-1 on the NYSE.

Despite the decidedly negative tone to trade, the dollar -- a traditional defensive holding -- has attracted only modest buying interest. More specifically, it is up only 0.2% against a basket of major foreign currencies. However, it is up 0.9% week to date. DJ30 -119.35 NASDAQ -44.58 SP500 -15.39 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 445/500 mln/1880 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 600/195 mln/2235

10:30 am : Down 3.0% to $99.45 per barrel, oil prices in the constant futures contract are below $100 for the first time since February. Broad market weakness on the back of a disappointing payrolls report and word that oil production in Iraq is expected to pick up have played a part in the selling.

Natural gas prices have fallen deeper into negative territory, too. Prices were last quoted at $2.37 per MMBtu, which makes for a 2.4% loss.

Precious metals were down modestly this morning, but they have since pushed higher. The bounce has gold sporting a 0.6% gain at $1644 per ounce, while silver is up an even more impressive 1.1% to $30.33 per ounce.

Overall action has the CRB Index down 1.1%, which makes for its third straight loss following six consecutive gains. DJ30 -129.68 NASDAQ -51.32 SP500 -16.37 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 490/370 mln/1800 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 645/150 mln/2135

10:00 am : Utilities stocks make up the only major sector that has managed to put together any kind of a gain in the face of this morning's slide. The defensive-oriented sector, up 0.6%, is currently led by the likes of AES (AES 12.43, +0.22) and PPL Corp (PPL 27.60, +0.35), both of which posted upside earnings surprises for the latest quarter.DJ30 -103.61 NASDAQ -40.57 SP500 -13.39 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 465/145 mln/1715 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 615/75 mln/2055

09:45 am : The major equity averages are down markedly this morning. The action has the broad market positioned for a weekly loss of almost 2% after scoring two straight weekly gains.

For the third straight session Energy stocks are casting a heavy drag on trade. The sector's 1.2% slide comes alongside a 2.2% drop in oil prices to $100.25 per barrel. With a cumulative decline of about 4% in the last three sessions, Energy stocks are track for a weekly loss of more than 2%. Oil futures prices in the constant contract are down more than 4% week over week. DJ30 -82.34 NASDAQ -32.89 SP500 -10.74 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -7.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -18.80. Stock futures are down, but their slide hasn't been too severe, despite a disappointing monthly payrolls report that featured smaller-than-expected increases in both nonfarm payrolls and nonfarm private payrolls, along with a headline unemployment rate of 8.1%. Support has also come in the face of generally uninspiring earnings reports.

Crude oil prices are being cut aggressively, though; the energy component was last quoted with a 2.2% loss at $100.25 per barrel.

Meanwhile, Treasury yields have ticked incrementally lower, but the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note remains narrowly above 1.90%. However, the yield on Germany's 10-year Bund recently recorded a record low just under 1.59%.

As for the dollar, it's currently flat against a collection of competing currencies.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -5.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -15.80. Oil prices are under sharp pressure, resulting in a 2.0% drop that has left the energy component to trade at $100.50 per barrel. Natural gas prices have also come under pressure since trading flat about an hour ago; prices were last quoted at $2.40 per MMBtu with a 1.3% loss.

Precious metals have pushed out of negative territory to trade with slight gains. Gold now sits at $1636.70 per ounce, which makes for a 0.1% gain. Silver is up 0.3% to $30.10 per ounce.

Despite the uptick in precious metals prices, the CRB Commodity Index is down 0.5%, which puts it on pace for its third straight loss after scoring six consecutive gains.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -2.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -10.80. Whippy action among stock futures has followed the latest monthly payrolls report.

Official numbers suggest that nonfarm payrolls for April increased by 115,000, which is less than the increase of 162,000 that had been broadly expected. Nonfarm private payrolls were up 130,000 in April, but that's actually less than the addition of 167,000 that had been widely expected.

Notably, the headline unemployment rate was registered at 8.1%, which is slightly less than the 8.2% that had been broadly anticipated.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -1.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -7.50. Stock futures are flat as premarket participants prepare for the official monthly payrolls report, which will be posted at 8:30 AM ET. Europe's bourses are currently down with varied losses following some underwhelming data and mixed overnight action in Asia. Meanwhile, the dollar is up marginally against a basket of major foreign currencies. Commodities are mostly lower, though their losses vary. The latest batch of earnings reports has been more mixed than those of recent days, but Dow component Kraft (KFT 39.88, +0.29) posted an upside surprise. Estee Lauder (EL 61.17, -2.98) also reported a better-than-expected bottom line, but downside guidance detracted from that feat. Note: ticker quotes reflect premarket prices.

06:20 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -3.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -7.30.

06:20 am : Nikkei Closed for Holiday Hang Seng 21086.00 -163.50, -0.80%

06:20 am : FTSE 5711.87, -54.70, -1.00%. DAX 6643.61, -50.80, -0.80%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader, http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader and http://chart.ly/users/wrbtrader

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