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 Post subject: May 3rd Thursday 2012 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +12.90
PostPosted: Thu May 03, 2012 9:30 pm 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)

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click on the above image to view today's performance verification
please note the displayed points screen does not represent the commissions/fees screen


Price Action Trade Performance for Today: +12.90 points or $1290 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, all trades were posted real-time in the free #FuturesTrades chat room. You can read today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs for details (e.g. time, price, contract size) about each one of my trades from entry to exit along with price action commentary as the trade traversed in comparison to what's shown in the above image...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=104&t=1211.

To join our free chat room...registration instructions located at a different forum @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=630

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my price action trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our price action trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=152&t=1459

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Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/IMF actions or any important global economic events that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables (key market events) causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that results in swing points and strong continuation price actions. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for my technical analysis. Just as important, these summaries becomes my archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past...something I can not get from my broker statements alone.

Stocks Stumble Ahead of April Jobs Report

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click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- U.S. stocks stumbled Thursday, as investors digested conflicting economic data ahead of Friday's all-important jobs report.

The day started on an optimistic note, as a decline in weekly jobless claims lifted hopes ahead of the April jobs reading, due Friday morning.

But shortly after the opening bell, investors were hit with a weaker-than-expected reading on the U.S. service sector, which includes the retail, construction, financial services, health care and hotel industries. The Institute of Supply Management's Service index showed that the service sector had the slowest expansion of the year in April.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) dropped 62 points, or 0.5%, the S&P 500 (SPX) slipped 11 points, or 0.8%, and the Nasdaq (COMP) fell 36 points, or 1.2%.

"It's all about jobs right now," said Kim Forrest, senior equity analyst at Fort Pitt Capital Group. "The better-than-expected jobless claims number gave the market some hope for tomorrow, but the ISM Service index took that hope away."

While the monthly jobs number is always highly anticipated by market participants, the readings for April and May will be especially important for predicting the Federal Reserve's next steps, said Forrest. Its Operation Twist program, which swaps short-term bonds on its balance sheet for longer-term securities, expires in June.

"The Federal Reserve will look at the April and May jobs number very closely to decide whether it needs to take further action or can sit back and do nothing," Forrest said. "Part of the reason we've seen a small pullback in stocks recently is because it's still unclear what the Fed will do in June."

Economists surveyed by CNNMoney expect the Labor Department's data to show 160,000 jobs added in April. While that's an improvement from March's weak growth, the pace is still slow compared to job gains in December, January and February -- each of which exceeded 200,000.

If the upcoming reports continue to trend negative, "that would throw a pebble in the Fed's decision basket for taking some action," Forrest said.

But anything that shows even modest improvement would allow the central bank to stay put, despite cries for a third round of long-term debt buying, known as quantitative easing, or QE3.

U.S. stocks ended mixed Wednesday as investors digested the weak ADP report and mostly upbeat corporate results.

* Video - Stimulus? We've done austerity - Krugman

World markets: European Central Bank officials voted Thursday to hold interest rates steady, even as the euro-area economy slides toward recession. But ECB president Mario Draghi appeared to hint that there could be rate cuts in the future.

European stocks finished mixed following Draghi's comments. Britain's FTSE 100 (UKX) ticked up 0.2%, the DAX (DAX) in Germany slipped 0.2% and France's CAC 40 (CAC40) lost 0.1%.

Asian markets ended mixed. The Shanghai Composite (SHCOMP) edged up just less than 0.1%, while the Hang Seng (HSI) in Hong Kong slid 0.3%. Tokyo was closed for a holiday.

Economy: Initial jobless claims for the week ended April 28 totaled 365,000, according to the Labor Department, which was less than expected.

Jobless claims were forecast to total 375,000, according to a survey of economists by Briefing.com -- an improvement from the revised figure of 392,000 in the week prior.

The Institute of Supply Management's Service index pulled back to 53.5 in April, from 56 in March and below analyst expectations. While a reading above 50 indicates growth, April's figure represented the slowest expansion in non-manufacturing activity since December.

* Facebook readies for mid-May IPO

Companies: Investors also continued to sort through a deluge of first-quarter corporate results.

Prudential Financial's (PRU, Fortune 500) 10% tumble made it the worst-performing stock on the S&P 500. Late Wednesday, the company posted a first-quarter loss of almost $1 billion.

Shares of General Motors (GM, Fortune 500) fell more than 2% after the automaker reported strong first-quarter earnings on good results in its domestic market, but took a hit on its bottom line from rising losses and special charges in Europe.

Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR) was the biggest loser on the Nasdaq, as shares plummeted nearly 50%. The company reported quarterly revenue that missed estimates and lowered its guidance for 2012

Shares of online reviews site Yelp (YELP) dropped after the company reported a net loss of $9.8 million, or 31 cents per share, for the first quarter of 2012 -- its first as a publicly traded company. Yelp is in the process of investing in international expansion.

Private equity firm The Carlyle Group (CG) priced its IPO Wednesday evening at $22 per unit, which was lower than its proposed $23 to $25 per unit range. Shares finished slightly higher on the first day of trading.

Facebook set the price range for its initial public offering between $28 to $35 a share and raised its offering size to $13.6 billion. If its IPO prices at the top of the range, the company would be valued at just shy of $75 billion. Facebook will set its actual price the night before it begins trading on the tech-heavy Nasdaq exchange under the ticker "FB."

After Thursday's closing bell, LinkedIn (LNKD) posted a first-quarter profit that more than doubled from a year earlier, as revenue jumped 100%. The company also announced that it is buying presentation-sharing website SlideShare for $118.8 million. Shares bounced in after-hours trading.

AIG (AIG, Fortune 500) also said its first-quarter profit jumped two-fold, but the bailed-out insurer's stock dipped in after-hours trading.

Currencies and commodities: The dollar rose against the euro, the British pound and the Japanese yen.

Oil for June delivery fell $2.68 to settle at $102.54 a barrel.

Gold futures for June delivery dropped $19.20 to settle at $1,634.80 an ounce.

Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury was little changed, with the yield holding steady around 1.92%.

Image

Market Update

4:30 pm : The major equity averages started the session near the neutral line, but a lack of support left stocks to slide into negative territory. They settled only modestly above session lows as participants prepared for a highly anticipated payrolls report after receiving a mixed batch of data.

Sentiment improved slightly ahead of the open when it was learned that 365,000 initial jobless claims were filed for the week ended April 28, down from the prior week total of 392,000 and less than the 375,000 claims that had been broadly expected, but the accompanying bid proved temporary. Many simply shrugged off a 2.0% increase in first quarter unit labor costs and a 0.5% decline in productivity -- the Briefing.com consensus called for an increase of 3.0% and a decline of 0.8%, respectively.

Stocks chopped along without much direction in the opening minutes of trade, but sellers were stirred by the latest. ISM Non-Manufacturing Index. After a print of 56.0 in the prior month it pulled back to 53.5 for April. Many had expected a more modest decline to 55.5.

Given the lack of actual leadership, stocks were unable to sustain a mid-morning rebound effort. Sectors with meaningful market weight, like Tech, Financials, and Energy, were weak all afternoon. Each suffered a loss of roughly 1% or more.

For the second straight session Energy stocks were the worst performers. Collectively, they declined 1.5% after a 1.6% slide in the prior session.

Suffering a 1.1% loss, Materials stocks also succumbed to stiff selling pressure. Weakness among natural resource plays was likely exacerbated by a drop in commodity prices -- the CRB Commodity Index fell 0.9% after a 1.3% loss in the prior session.

The drop by commodities came even though the dollar mustered only a modest gain today. As of the close it was up just 0.1% against a basket of major foreign currencies. It was flat versus the euro, which moved modestly earlier in the day amid hawkish commentary from European Central Bank President Draghi.

Earnings were given little regard in the broader market, but quarterly reports provided fodder for traders of individual stocks. Visa (V 116.41, -5.78), General Motors (GM 22.37, -0.56), and Prudential (PRU 54.62, -6.32) all posted upside surprises, but still suffered losses. Allstate (ALL 34.23, +1.32) staged a strong climb after it announced.

Even amid the headlines of the day market participants remained mindful that tomorrow morning brings the government's official nonfarm payrolls report. Earlier this week a glimpse of what monthly payrolls might look like was provided by the ADP Employment Report, which suggested that fewer jobs were added in April than what many had expected. Economists polled by Briefing.com expect, on average, that nonfarm payrolls officially grew by roughly 160,000 in April.

Advancing Sectors: Consumer Staples +0.1%, Telecom +0.1%
Declining Sectors: Health Care -0.4%, Utilities -0.6%, Consumer Discretionary -0.7%, Financials -0.9%, Industrials -0.9%, Tech -1.0%, Materials -1.1%, Energy -1.5%DJ30 -61.98 NASDAQ -35.55 NQ100 -1.1% R2K -1.5% SP400 -1.7% SP500 -10.74 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 643/1.84 bln/1897 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 900/844 mln/2094

3:30 pm : Today crude oil trended lower, but leveled off in afternoon action to chop around the $102.50 per barrel before it settled the floor session at $102.56 per barrel, or 2.6% lower. Natural gas trended upwards and extended its gains following a muted reaction to better-than-expected inventory data that showed a build of 28 bcf. It settled the session with a 4.0% gain at $2.34 per MMBtu.

Precious metals extended yesterday's losses as they traded deeper into negative territory today. A modestly stronger dollar did not help the case -- the greenback gain, although modest, came amid hawkish commentary from European Central Bank President Draghi. Gold fell to a session low of $1631.30 per ounce just before settling with a 1.2% loss at $1634.30 per ounce. Silver touched a session low of $29.92 per ounce shortly before it closed floor trade at $30.05 per ounce, or 1.9% lower.DJ30 -56.72 NASDAQ -32.24 SP500 -9.70 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 595/1.43 bln/1940 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 830/540 mln/2155

3:00 pm : Stocks are at session lows as trade enters its final hour. The weakness comes ahead of a key nonfarm payrolls report tomorrow morning. Earlier this week market participants were given a glimpse of what monthly payrolls might look like with the ADP Employment Report, which suggested that fewer jobs were added in April than what many had expected. Economists polled by Briefing.com expect, on average, that nonfarm payrolls grew by little more than 160,000 in April.DJ30 -80.26 NASDAQ -40.44 SP500 -12.28 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 580/1.32 bln/1945 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 810/500 mln/2155

2:30 pm : All 10 major sectors are now in negative territory. Losses currently range from the Utilities sector's 0.1% decline to the 1.6% drop suffered by the Energy sector.

Even amid such widespread weakness traditional safe havens aren't attracting much buying interest. In fact, the benchmark 10-year Note is barely positive, the dollar is dancing along narrowly above the neutral line, and electronic trade has kept gold prices at about $1635 per ounce, which is right about where they settled pit trade with a loss of more than 1%. DJ30 -80.75 NASDAQ -37.84 SP500 -11.85 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 605/1.21 bln/1900 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 850/455 mln/2090

2:00 pm : Stocks recently dropped another leg lower, taking the major equity averages to their worst levels of the day. There is no clear catalyst or headline to attach to the move. However, selling among Tech stocks has intensified in recent trade, resulting in a 1.1% loss for the heaviest sector by market weight.DJ30 -76.89 NASDAQ -36.82 SP500 -11.06 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 600/1.10 bln/1885 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 885/415 mln/2035

1:30 pm : The major equity averages remain near session lows with varied losses. Steady losses stem largely from a lack of leadership as the only sectors in positive territory are defensive in nature and of little market weight -- Telecom is up 0.2%, the Utilities sector is up 0.1%, and Consumer Staples stocks are dancing along narrowly above the neutral line.DJ30 -46.58 NASDAQ -28.73 SP500 -7.91 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 620/1.01 bln/1840 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 955/375 mln/1970

1:00 pm : The major equity averages are in the red with varied losses after a lack of leadership left stocks to slide shortly after the open.

Ahead of the open market participants were given the good news that the latest weekly initial jobless claims tally of 365,000 is down from the prior week and less than what had been widely expected. A 2.0% increase in first quarter unit labor costs and a 0.5% decline in first quarter productivity received less attention.

Stocks opened the session on a relatively flat note, but a disappointing ISM Non-Manufacturing Index reading of 53.5 for April invited some selling. The effort gained participation, but stocks attempted to rebound. The effort, however, lost momentum, leaving stocks to roll over so that they remain in the red.

Energy stocks are weighing on action for the second straight session. On the heels of the sector's 1.6% drop in the prior session, Energy is down another 1.1% today. Of course, a 2.5% drop in oil prices to $102.60 per barrel hasn't helped the sector's prospects.

Tech, which represents the largest sector by market weight, is also in weak shape. Its 0.8% loss is matched by the Materials sector; only Energy is in worse shape.

Even strong earnings reports have failed to help win favor for many stocks. Visa (V 117.90, -4.29) is down well in excess of 3%, despite its upside surprise. General Motors (GM 22.48, -0.45) is also under pronounced pressure, while shares of Prudential (PRU 54.79, -6.15) have fallen precipitously. In contrast, Allstate (ALL 34.50, +1.59) has climbed almost 5% following the release of its latest quarterly results. DJ30 -42.87 NASDAQ -28.00 SP500 -6.73 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 710/910 mln/1750 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1080/340 mln/1815

12:30 pm : Stocks have been unable to recover from their recent retreat. That has left the major equity averages to remain in the red with varied losses.

Among the headline indices, the Nasdaq is in the worst shape as large-cap Tech issue Intel (INTC 28.58, -0.39) has a decidedly negative impact on the Index. Akamai (AKAM 33.00, -1.09) is in especially weak shape as it contends with a loss on the order of 3%. Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR 25.84, -23.68) remains the worst performer in the Nasdaq, however. DJ30 -36.93 NASDAQ -26.4 SP500 -6.39 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 670/830 mln/1785 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1030/315 mln/1870

12:00 pm : A recent flurry of selling forced stocks lower, such that the S&P 500 is back at the depths it set this morning while the Nasdaq is now at a new session low. The Dow is also down, but not yet back to its worst level of the day.

Energy stocks continue to trade with weakness. The sector is down 1.0% as oilfield services stocks come under stiff pressure. Integrated players like Exxon Mobil (XOM 85.83, -0.37) and Chevron (CVX 106.18, -0.85) are also in the red by their losses are less severe.

A sharp drop in oil prices is acting as a negative backdrop to the action in the Energy space. Oil prices were last quoted with a 2.2% loss at $102.90 per barrel. DJ30 -43.29 NASDAQ -28.16 SP500 -7.42 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 805/695 mln/1615 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1160/270 mln/1725

11:35 am : The major averages remain in the red with modest losses, but widely regarded growth stock Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR 26.94, -22.56) has had its share price slashed almost in half, despite reporting better-than-expected earnings. The company beat the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $0.63 per share by $0.01 on revenue that surged about 37% to $885 million. However, the company issued downside guidance for its third quarter with earnings expeted to range from $0.48 to $0.53 per share, whereas the consensus estimate calls for $0.72 per share. The company also expects revenue for the quarter to range from $861 million to $897 million, which is well below the $1.05 billion revenue mark that Wall Street had issued as a target. The company also issued downside guidance for all of fiscal 2012.DJ30 -13.01 NASDAQ -11.10 SP500 -2.60 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 838/647.7 mln/1578 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1256/258.2 mln/1681

11:00 am : The major averages hold modest losses, but are off their worst levels following the disappointing ISM Non-Manufacturing data. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq pace the decline with losses of 0.2% while the Dow slightly outperforms with 0.1% drop.

Shares of Walter Energy (WLT 67.39, +3.60) are trading up almost 6%, despite the company's earnings miss. The company reported first quarter earnings of $0.65 per share, which is actually $0.25 worse than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $0.90. Revenues rose about 55% year over year to $632 million, which is less than the $664 millionn consensus estimate.DJ30 -16.19 NASDAQ -6.59 SP500 -2.30 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 747/506.3 mln/1617 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1066/208.5 mln/1811

10:30 am : Treasuries are off session lows following the disappointing ISM services reading. The complex fell to session lows after the better than expected claims data, but has rallied back to the breakeven line after the ISM miss. Maturities across the complex are now flat as traders digest this morning’s data. Yields are little changed with the 10-yr holding near 1.930%. A slightly steeper yield curve has held throughout the morning as the 2-10-yr spread trades 166.5 basis points.DJ30 -40.94 NASDAQ -14.57 SP500 -5.66 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 653/369.9 mln/1681 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 922/162.9 mln/1925

10:00 am : The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for April pulled back to 53.5 from 56.0 in the prior month. It had been widely predicted that the reading would ease back to 55.5. Stocks have responded to the number by sliding ot new morning lows. Overall losses aren't exactly steep, though.DJ30 -21.79 NASDAQ -8.69 SP500 -3.27 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 775/80 mln/1355 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1050/60 mln/1540

09:45 am : Most stocks are down modestly this morning, leaving the broad market to trade narrowly beneath the neutral line. There are few signs of leadership.

Energy and Financials, which hampered the broad market's effort to stage a rebound in the prior session, are slogging along again today. The two sectors are down 0.3% and 0.1%, respectively.

Consumer Staples stocks are in the best shape of any major sector, but they're up just a tame 0.2%.

As an aside, the top of the hour brings the latest ISM Non-Manufacturing Index. DJ30 +1.52 NASDAQ -5.17 SP500 -0.98 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -2.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.00. Stock futures have eased back since making a modest bounce that came on the back of a better-than-expected weekly initial jobless claims report. Market participants continue to await the latest ISM Non-Manufacturing Index, which will be released at 10:00 AM ET. In the backdrop this morning is relatively upbeat action in Europe, where the region's major bourses are sporting solid gains. The euro has also ticked higher amid comments from European Central Bank President Draghi, who noted in a press conference that monetary expansion remains subdued and that a rate cut was not discussed in recent meetings. Earnings, although still strong overall, have caused little stir among broad market participants.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -3.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.50. Crude oil prices ran into some selling pressure shortly before the open of pit trade. The action has taken prices down $104.75 per barrel for a 0.5% loss in early pit trade. Natural gas has attracted a strong bid ahead of its weekly inventory report at 10:30 AM ET. Prices are currently up 2.7% to $2.42 per MMBtu.

Precious metals are under stiff pressure. Specifically, gold prices are currently down 0.9% to $1640 per ounce, while silver sits at $30.45 per ounce with a 0.6% loss.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -0.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +2.00. Stock futures have moved higher in response to the latest dose of data. Initial jobless claims for the week ended April 28 totaled 365,000, which is less than the tally of 375,000 that had been expected, on average, among economists polled by Briefing.com. What's more, the latest count is down from the upwardly revised 392,000 initial claims recorded for the prior week. As for continuing claims, they declined to 3.28 million from 3.33 million.

Separately, first quarter unit labor costs increased by 2.0%, but that is actually less than the 3.0% increase that had been widely anticipated. However, first quarter productivity declined by 0.5%, according to a preliminary reading. Still, that's actually less of a decline than the 0.8% drop that had been broadly forecasted.

Still on tap for today is the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index, which is due at 10:00 AM ET.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -2.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -3.80. Stock futures are rather flat despite strong gains currently on display in Europe, where European Central Bank President Draghi will soon hold a press conference. Also on tap for today is the latest weekly Initial Jobless Claims Report, which is due at 8:30 AM ET. A preliminary look at first quarter productivity and unit labor costs will be posted at the same time. At 10:00 AM ET the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for April will be released.

The latest round of earnings features an upside surprise from Allstate (ALL 33.45, +0.54), Visa (V 120.45, -1.74), Cardinal Health (CAH 42.50, +0.08), and General Motors (GM 22.80, -0.13), but Prudential (PRU 57.48, -3.46) and CIGNA (CI 46.55, +0.00) both came short of the consensus. Note: ticker quotes reflect premarket prices.

06:26 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -2.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.50.

06:26 am : Nikkei...Holiday......... Hang Seng...21249.53...-59.60...-0.30%.

06:26 am : FTSE...5783.38...+25.30...+0.40%. DAX...6776.15...+65.40...+1.00%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader, http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader and http://chart.ly/users/wrbtrader

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