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 Post subject: May 2nd Wednesday 2012 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +4.30
PostPosted: Wed May 02, 2012 10:27 pm 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)

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click on the above image to view today's performance verification

Price Action Trade Performance for Today: +4.30 points or $430 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, all trades were posted real-time in the free #FuturesTrades chat room. You can read today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs for details (e.g. time, price, contract size) about each one of my trades from entry to exit along with price action commentary as the trade traversed in comparison to what's shown in the above image...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=104&t=1210.

To join our free chat room...registration instructions located at a different forum @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=630

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my price action trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our price action trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=152&t=1459

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Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/IMF actions or any important global economic events that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables (key market events) causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that results in swing points and strong continuation price actions. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for my technical analysis. Just as important, these summaries becomes my archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past...something I can not get from my broker statements alone.

Stocks Mixed On Earnings, Jobs Data

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click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- U.S. stocks ended mixed Wednesday as investors digested a weak private-sector jobs report and mostly upbeat corporate results.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) fell 11 points, or 0.1%, to end at 13,268. Alcoa (AA, Fortune 500) was the biggest drag on the index, but Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) and JPMorgan (JPM, Fortune 500) also weighed on it.

The S&P 500 (SPX) shed 3 points, or 0.2%, to 1,402. Energy companies, including Chesapeake (CHK, Fortune 500), were the worst performers on the index.

But the Nasdaq (COMP) edged up 9 points, or 0.3%, to 3,060. The tech-heavy index was supported by Flextronics (FLEX) and Garmin (GRMN), which both reported strong quarterly results.

A day after a strong report on manufacturing activity pushed the Dow to its highest close since December 2007, investors were hit with a grim reminder of the lackluster job market.

Payroll processor ADP reported tepid private-sector job growth in April, raising concerns about the government's monthly jobs report due Friday.

"The jobs data has been consistently weakening and this is just more confirmation of that trend," said Ryan Detrick, Senior Technical Analyst at Schaffer's Investment Research.

For the most part, stocks had been supported by better-than-expected corporate results for the first quarter. Of the S&P 500 companies that have reported so far -- 68% have beat analysts' expectations, according to Capital IQ.

"The earnings boost is mostly behind us," said Bernard Kavanagh, vice president of portfolio management for St. Louis-based broker Stifel Nicolaus. "The likelihood is that more negative headlines will dominate the market in the next few weeks."

Fears about a so-called hard landing in China, a stalled U.S. recovery and a flare-up in Europe's debt crisis have been weighing on investors in recent weeks, leading to the worst monthly returns of the year in April.

Economy: The ADP report showed that the private sector added 119,000 jobs in April. That's considerably less than the forecast of 170,000 new jobs, according to a survey of analysts by Briefing.com. It's also a significant decline from the prior month, when the private sector added 201,000 jobs.

The ADP report typically sets the tone for the government's highly anticipated monthly jobs report, due Friday.

* Eurozone unemployment hits record 10.9%

Economists surveyed by CNNMoney expect the Labor Department's data to show 160,000 jobs added in April, including 165,000 from the private sector and a loss of 5,000 government jobs.

The unemployment rate is not expected to fall below its current 8.2%, unless more workers leave the labor force.

Separately, factory orders for the month of March fell 1.5%, the government said. Orders were expected to have dropped by 1.8%.

* Video - Chesapeake's CEO under fire

Companies: Shares of Chesapeake Energy plunged more than 10% after the natural gas company reported a surprise loss late Tuesday.

TripAdvisor (TRIP) shares jumped 17%, after the travel website said late Tuesday that net income surged 118% in the first quarter.

Singapore-based Flextronics, a maker of industrial electronics, said earnings rose in the first quarter -- even as sales declined. Shares rose 5%.

Garmin, a leading GPS device maker, reported a surprise increase in sales as earnings beat expectations in the first quarter.

Early Wednesday, Comcast (CMCSA, Fortune 500) reported quarterly earnings that beat expectations. The cable company announced earnings of 45 cents per share on revenue of $14.9 billion. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters had expected Comcast to post quarterly earnings of 42 cents a share on $14.4 billion in revenue.

Time Warner (TWX, Fortune 500), parent company of CNN and CNNMoney, reported quarterly earnings of 67 cents per share on revenue of $7 billion, surpassing expectations. A consensus of analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters had forecasted an EPS of 64 cents for Time Warner, with a revenue of $6.8 billion.

CVS (CVS, Fortune 500) reported adjusted earnings of 65 cents per share for the quarter and revenue of $30.8 billion. The company was projected to report earnings of 63 cents a share on $30.3 billion in revenue, according to Thomson Reuters.

Meanwhile, shares of major homebuilders rallied. D.R. Horton (DHI, Fortune 500), Lennar (LEN) and Pulte (PHM, Fortune 500) all moved higher on Wednesday.

* Europe's next recession risk: Germany

World markets: European stocks ended mixed. Britain's FTSE 100 (UKX) slid 0.9% and the DAX (DAX) in Germany fell 0.7%, while France's CAC 40 (CAC40) edged up 0.4%.

Unemployment across the 27-nation European Union remained at 10.2% in March, according to a government report Wednesday. But the 17-nation eurozone unemployment edged higher to 10.9%, from 10.8% in February. Both are record high rates for those areas since the creation of the common currency.

There are now 13 European nations struggling with double-digit unemployment, led by a 24.1% rate in Spain and 21.7% in Greece.

* Video - El-Erian: Spain could make or break Europe

In a largely symbolic move, Standard & Poor's raised its ratings on Greece to "CCC," pulling the country out of selective default after it successfully exchanged its distressed debt.

Readings were a bit better in Asia, as a closely watched measure of manufacturing activity in China improved slightly. But the HSBC survey of manufacturing executives still came in at 49.3 for April. While that's up from 48.3 in March, it is just below the 50 mark that indicates either growth or contraction in that key sector.

Asian markets all ended higher. The Shanghai Composite (SHCOMP) gained 1.8%, the Hang Seng (HSI) in Hong Kong rose 1.3% and Japan's Nikkei (N225) ticked up 0.3%.

* T. Boone Pickens: Natural gas has bottomed

Currencies and commodities: The dollar gained against the euro, the British pound and the Japanese yen.

Oil for June delivery slipped 94 cents to end at $105.22 a barrel.

Gold futures for June delivery fell $8.40 to settle at $1,654 an ounce.

Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury rose, with the yield falling to 1.93% from 1.96% on Tuesday.

Image

Market Update

4:30 pm : Disappointing jobs data played a part in sending the major equity averages to sizable losses in early trade, but stocks were able to improve their position, resulting in a relatively mixed finish.

Early participants were generally uninspired by the latest round of earnings reports, which featured upside surprises from MasterCard (MA 451.58, -4.32), Broadcom (BRCM 36.89, +0.18), CVS Caremark (CVS 45.92, +1.21), and Time Warner (TWX 37.29, -0.63). Their reports were partly overshadowed by another disappointing Manufacturing PMI reading from the eurozone.

Sentiment ahead of the open soured further when it was learned that the latest ADP Employment Report suggested that nonfarm private payrolls increased by only 119,000 during April, despite expectations for an increase of 170,000. The report is often regarded as a harbinger for the government's official monthly payrolls report, the latest of which will be released this Friday.

Energy and Financial stocks were leaders in the prior session, but they lagged this session. Persistent weakness in the pair hampered the broad market's effort to trade higher. Energy settled with a 1.6% loss; Chesapeake Energy (CHK 16.74, -2.86) was especially weak in the wake of a displeasing quarterly report that included relatively light revenue and earnings. Financials, which fell 1.0% as a group, were weighed down by diversified financial services stocks and investment banking and brokerage shares.

The Consumer Discretionary sector put together a 0.5% gain in the face of broad market weakness, but its lack of weight limited its ability to offer any real leadership. Teen apparel retailers were especially strong after American Eagle (AEO 20.90, +3.01) raised its earnings forecast; the ensuing surge in shares of AEO took its stock price to its best level in about four years.

Although stocks were able to fight through some selling, commodities were clipped for sizable losses. As a result, the CRB Commodity Index suffered a 1.3% loss, which snapped a six-session streak of gains. The CRB hasn't had such a weak performance in three weeks. A stronger dollar certainly didn't help the case for commodities; the greenback gained 0.4% against a basket of major foreign currencies, but most of that move came because the euro was weakened in the wake of disappointing eurozone data.

Advancing Sectors: Consumer Discretionary +0.5%, Consumer Staples +0.3%, Industrials +0.1%, Tech +0.1%
Unchanged: Telecom
Declining Sectors: Health Care -0.1%, Utilities -0.6%, Materials -0.6%, Financials -1.0%, Energy -1.6%DJ30 -10.75 NASDAQ +9.41 NQ100 +0.3% R2K +0.3% SP400 +0.2% SP500 -3.51 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1367/1.83 bln/1157 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1304/779 mln/1683

3:30 pm : Crude oil extended its losses following inventory data that showed a build of 2.84 million barrels when a build of 2.5 million barrels was widely anticipated. It set a session low of $104.84 per barrel in morning pit activity. The energy component attempted a rebound, but ran out of steam as it consolidated near $105.30 per barrel. It settled pit trade with a 0.9% loss at $105.26 per barrel.

Natural gas trended downward to a pit session low of $2.24 per MMBtu. Any recovery attempt was dashed, leaving it to settle pit trade at $2.25 per MMBtu, or 5.1% lower.

Precious metals traded in the red for the entire floor session. Gold rallied to a session high of $1660.60 per ounce following a disappointing ADP Employment Report. However, the metal gave up the gains shortly after and spent the afternoon trying to trim losses. Gold settled pit trade 0.5% lower at $1654.40 per ounce. Silver touched a session low of $30.41 per ounce before leveling off and chopping around in a consolidative manner. It inched slightly higher before the close, but finished the session with a 1.1% loss at $30.63 per ounce.DJ30 -32.16 NASDAQ +3.90 SP500 -5.23 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1205/1.44 bln/1295 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1145/515 mln/1820

3:00 pm : Stocks are having trouble extending their climb into the final hour of the trading day. The lack of leadership appears to be hampering stocks too much for the broad market averages to establish enough momentum to make any kind of meaningful gain; up 0.3%, both the Consumer Staples and the Consumer Discretionary stand as the only sectors in positive territory, but neither has any real market weight.DJ30 -34.28 NASDAQ +2.49 SP500 -5.51 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1260/1.32 bln/1220 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1240/470 mln/1710

2:30 pm : Stocks continue to slowly work their way higher, but the effort remains hampered by Energy and Financials. Energy stocks have been drifting sidways for the last few hours, leaving the sector to trade with a loss of roughly 1.5%. As for Financials, they've managed to trim some of their losses, but the sector is still down a considerable 0.7%.DJ30 -22.10 NASDAQ +7.93 SP500 -3.94 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1295/1.22 bln/1175 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1260/400 mln/1700

2:00 pm : Stocks were recently backed down by a mild fit of selling, but they have since regrouped to push up to session highs. Despite the move, neither the S&P 500 nor the Dow have yet found positive territory.

Strength in the greenback has been waning in recent trade, although the Dollar Index remains in positive territory with a 0.3% gain. Most of the greenback's gain has come against the euro following some disappointing data from the eurozone. DJ30 -24.37 NASDAQ +7.19 SP500 -4.10 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1195/1.15 bln/1260 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1175/400 mln/1770

1:30 pm : Stocks are easing back a bit, leaving the S&P 500 and the Dow to remain in the red, while the Nasdaq is now back at the neutral line after it had put together a narrow gain.

Amid such modest losses Treasuries have only attracted slight buying interest. As such, the benchmark 10-year Note is up only a few ticks so that its yield remains below 1.95%. DJ30 -36.71 NASDAQ +0.02 SP500 -5.86 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1170/1.05 bln/1270 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1195/365 mln/1720

1:00 pm : A steady loss of support late in the prior session extended into early trade as market participants responded to mixed action in Europe and some disappointing jobs data, but stocks have spent the past couple of hours trying to improve their position.

Another dose of disappointing Manufacturing PMI data from the eurozone left stocks there to move in mixed fashion before they eventually booked broad losses. Lackluster action abroad was followed by the latest ADP Employment Report, which suggests that nonfarm private payrolls increased by a smaller-than-expected tally of 119,000 in April.

Weakness among Energy and Financial issues following strong performances in the prior session has weighed on broad market action. The two sectors are down 1.6% and 0.9%, respectively. Oil and gas exploration and production plays have been a considerable source of weakness in the Energy sector, while diversified financial services stocks and investment banking and brokerage shares are hurting the Financial sector.

Despite weakness among shares of the two highly influential sectors, the broad market has managed to cut its loss. In fact, the Nasdaq is now in positive territory with a narrow gain.

Retailers are trading with strength, helping the Consumer Discretionary sector put together a 0.5% gain, which makes it the strongest sector of the session. Apparel retailers are especially strong after American Eagle (AEO 20.21, +2.32) raised its earnings forecast. The stock is now at its best level in about four years. DJ30 -24.26 NASDAQ +4.85 SP500 -4.17 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1130/965 mln/1300 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1190/345 mln/1735

12:30 pm : The Nasdaq has moved into positive territory, but its counterparts remain mired in negative territory. That said, both the Dow and the S&P 500 are at their best levels of the day.

Consumer Discretionary stocks have ramped higher in recent trade. In fact, the sector is now sporting a 0.5% gain, which is better than what any other sector has achieved. To be fair, though, Consumer Staples represent the only other sector that has put together a gain -- they are up 0.3%.

Retailers are helping drive the gains of the Consumer Discretionary sector. They group is up about 1.5%, according to the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT 62.35, +0.92). Apparel retailers are especially strong after American Eagle (AEO 20.21, +2.32) raised its earnings forecast. The stock is now at its best level in about four years. DJ30 -26.71 NASDAQ +3.93 SP500 -4.36 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 930/855 mln/1480 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1020/300 mln/1890

12:00 pm : The Nasdaq recently came within close reach of the neutral line, but it has since turned away. The Nasdaq has managed to limit its loss with help from Apple (AAPL 584.60, +2.47), which has mustered a modest gain after it had lagged in the prior session. Many large-cap tech issues have yet to fight off sellers. Among them, Broadcom (BRCM 36.33, -0.38) continues to act as a drag, despite better-than-expected earnings.DJ30 -54.07 NASDAQ -5.23 SP500 -7.73 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 960/765 mln/1430 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1020/275 mln/1850

11:30 am : The stock market's recent rebound attempt has stalled, leaving the S&P 500 to trade with a marked loss.

Meanwhile, the dollar continues to sport a solid gain. Its strength today stems mostly from pronounced weakness in the euro, which is currently down 0.7% to about $1.32. The euro's retreat comes in the wake of a disappointing eurozone Manufacturing PMI reading of 45.9 for April, down from 47.7 in the prior month.

Europe's major bourses are in the process of settling. Germany's DAX looks like it will suffer a loss of nearly 1%, while Britain's FTSE is off slightly more than 1%. France's CAC looks like it will eke out a narrow gain, though. Overall action in the continent has the EuroStoxx 50 down 0.5%. DJ30 -49.68 NASDAQ -5.54 SP500 -7.02 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 860/650 mln/1515 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 930/235 mln/1930

11:00 am : Stocks have been pushing up from session lows, but the major equity averages continue to trade with modest losses.

The Consumer Staples sector stands as the only major sector in positive territory, but even they're up just 0.1%, collectively. CVS Caremark (CVS 45.78, +1.07) is a primary leader in the group. The stock's strength stems from a pleasing quarterly report that featured an upside earnings report. Competitor Walgreen Co. (WAG 34.28, -0.44) is at the opposite end of the spectrum as some pundits point out that CVS continues to benefit from the impasse between Walgreen and Express Scripts (ESRX 56.68, -0.07). DJ30 -39.13 NASDAQ -8.83 SP500 -6.12 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 725/490 mln/1615 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 675/180 mln/2150

10:35 am : Oil prices were at about $105.60 per barrel in the minutes that immediately preceded the latest weekly inventory data, which showed a build of 2.84 million barrels when a build of 2.5 million barrels had been widely expected. Prices are now down to $105.40 per ounce for a 0.7% loss.

Natural gas prices have been under pressure since the start of pit trade. The energy component was last quoted with a 1.6% loss at $2.43 per MMBtu.

Precious metals prices also remain in the red. Specifically, gold prices are down 0.6% at $1653.10 per ounce. Prices had pushed up toward the flat line in the minutes that followed a disappointing ADP Employment Report. Silver has been grappling with more aggressive selling pressure, such that prices sit at $30.52 per ounce with a 1.3% loss.

Overall weakness in the commodity complex has the CRB Index down 0.6%. DJ30 -78.78 NASDAQ -18.59 SP500 -11.03 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 810/390 mln/1490 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 745/140 mln/2045

10:00 am : Stocks have dropped another leg lower in recent trade. That has left both the Dow and S&P 500 to trade at their worst levels of the morning. Energy and Financials continue to weigh heavily on broad market action with respective losses of 1.7% and 1.5%.

Among Energy issues, Cheseapeake Energy (CHK 17.06, -2.54) is in very weak shape following the company's latest quarterly report, which featured earnings that came short of the consensus estimate, and a couple of subsequent analyst downgrades. Marathon Petroleum (MPC 41.59, +0.38) shares are among the few Energy plays that have put together a gain; interestingly, the stock suffered a loss in the prior session, despite posting an upside earnings surprise.

Weakness is also widespread among Financials, but Citigroup (C 32.75, -0.87) and Morgan Stanley (MS 16.97, -0.52) have been particularly heavy drags on the sector. The pair put together impressive gains in the prior session. DJ30 -70.61 NASDAQ -13.42 SP500 -10.01 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 750/210 mln/1465 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 715/80 mln/1995

09:45 am : The broad market is down about 0.5% this morning. There isn't a single sector in positive territory at the moment, but Financials and Energy, which provided leadership in the prior session, are under some of the sharpest pressure this morning -- the two sectors are down 1.1% and 1.2%, respectively.DJ30 -54.64 NASDAQ -8.81 SP500 -7.78 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -8.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -18.00. Underwhelming data in Europe and a disappointing ADP Report at home have put pressure on stock futures, such that a moderately lower open is expected, and overshadowed another batch of generally solid earnings results. The dollar has attracted considerable buying interest, however. It currently leads a collection of competing currencies by 0.5%. The dollar's strength and the stock market's downward bias have hampered commodity prices, such that the CRB Commodity Index is down 0.3%. Crude oil prices, currently down 0.4% at $105.80 per barrel, are likely to come into closer focus with the release of weekly inventory data at 10:30 AM ET.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -8.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -18.00. Generally weak action among commodities has the CRB Index down 0.4% today. It is still up 0.4% week to date, though.

Crude oil prices are down 0.4% to $105.69 per barrel in early pit trade. Weekly inventory numbers will be released at 10:30 AM ET. Natural gas prices are under more pronounced pressure; they were last quoted at $2.43 per MMBtu with a 1.7% loss.

Gold prices pushed up to the flat line in the minutes that followed the ADP Employment Report, but they are now down to $1655 per ounce for a 0.5% loss. Silver is down 1.2% to $30.55 per ounce.

08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -8.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -17.00. Stock futures have ticked lower in the minutes that have followed the latest ADP Employment Report, which suggests that nonfarm private payrolls were up by 119,000 in April. That increase is considerably less than the jump of 170,000 that had been projected, on average, by economists surveyed by Briefing.com. Many market participants maintain the opinion that a smaller-than-expected ADP number portends a poor reading for the official nonfarm payrolls report, which will be posted Friday morning.

As an aside, the dollar has eased off of its morning high, but still leads a collection of competing currencies by a strong 0.5%. Gold futures prices were spurred higher in the wake of the ADP headline; the yellow metal now trades with a loss of less than 0.2% at $1659.40 per ounce.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -4.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -11.30. Many overseas markets have re-opened from holiday, but action abroad has been rather varied. Meanwhile, there is a slight downside bias among domestic stock futures this morning. The cautious tone ocmes ahead of the ADP Employment Report at 8:15 AM ET. It is expected to provide a glimpse into the monthly payrolls report scheduled for release on Friday. Monthly factory orders figures follow at 10:00 AM ET. Weekly crude oil inventory data will be posted at 10:30 AM ET. On the earnings front, Broadcom (BRCM 36.25, -0.46) beat, as did CVS Caremark (CVS 45.81, +1.10), Time Warner (TWX 37.84, -0.08), and Mastercard (MA 452.45, -3.45). Note: ticker quotes reflect premarket prices.

06:38 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -2.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -7.80.

06:38 am : Nikkei...9380.25...+29.30...+0.30%. Hang Seng...21309.08...+214.90...+1.00%.

06:38 am : FTSE...5787.95...-24.30...-0.40%. DAX...6786.93...+25.70...+0.40%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader, http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader and http://chart.ly/users/wrbtrader

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