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 Post subject: May 1st Tuesday 2012 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +21.70
PostPosted: Tue May 01, 2012 7:53 pm 
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Joined: Sat Jan 10, 2009 2:06 pm
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)

Attachment:
050112-wrbtrader-Price-Action-Trading-PnL-Blotter-Profit-2170.png
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click on the above image to view today's performance verification

Price Action Trade Performance for Today: +21.70 points or $2170 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, all trades were posted real-time in the free #FuturesTrades chat room. You can read today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs for details (e.g. time, price, contract size) about each one of my trades from entry to exit along with price action commentary as the trade traversed in comparison to what's shown in the above image...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=104&t=1209.

To join our free chat room...registration instructions located at a different forum @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=630

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my price action trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our price action trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=152&t=1459

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Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/IMF actions or any important global economic events that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables (key market events) causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that results in swing points and strong continuation price actions. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for my technical analysis. Just as important, these summaries becomes my archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past...something I can not get from my broker statements alone.

Dow Closes At A 4-Year High

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click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- U.S. stocks moved solidly higher Tuesday as investors welcomed a rise in U.S. manufacturing activity and a mixed batch of corporate earnings

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) rose 66 points, or 0.5%, to close at 13,279.40, the highest since December 2007.

The S&P 500 (SPX) added 8 points, or 0.6%, and is just a handful of points shy of a 2012 high. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (COMP) increased 4 points, or 0.1%.

The day's gains were broad, with more than 70% of the Dow's 30 components ending in positive territory.

Countering signs that the U.S. economic recovery may be slowing, investors were encouraged by a report that showed manufacturing activity grew last month at the fastest pace since June 2011.

"This comes as a big surprise, because activity in the New York, Philadelphia and Chicago regions slowed materially last month," said Katy Lien, director of research and analysis at Global Forex Trading. "The details of the report showed strength in new orders, production, new export orders, employment, supplier deliveries and customer inventories."

* ISM manufacturing revs up in April

Meanwhile, manufacturing in China continued to recover for the fifth straight month, helping allay concerns about the economy slowing too quickly.

Fears about a so-called hard landing in China, a stalled U.S. recovery and a flare-up in Europe's debt crisis have been weighing on investors, and were the main reasons for the stock market's loss of momentum in April.

U.S. stocks finished in the red on Monday, posting their worst monthly returns of the year in April.

Economy: Construction spending rose only 0.1% in March. While that's an improvement from the 1.4% decline in February, the reading was below analyst estimates for a 0.5% increase.

April U.S. auto sales came in mostly ahead of expectations and prompted further optimism about the industry's outlook in the months to come. Overall for 2012, TrueCar projects 14.5 million new car sales in the U.S., up from 12.8 million last year.

Toyota (TM), which a year ago was reeling from the Japanese earthquake and tsunami disaster, bounced back strongly with 12% sales growth in the United States versus last year.

Sales at General Motors (GM, Fortune 500) fell 8% in April, while Ford Motor (F, Fortune 500) sales slipped 5% in the same period. Meanwhile, sales at Chrysler spiked 20%, making it the best April since 2008 for the automaker, which is owned by Fiat.

Companies: Shares of Shutterfly (SFLY) edged higher after the online photo-sharing company beat first-quarter results and boosted its outlook for the second quarter and the remainder of the year.

* Video - El-Erian: Spain could make or break Europe

Shares of BP (BP) lost ground after the oil company posted a drop in quarterly earnings and missed analyst estimates. BP joined Exxon Mobil (XOM, Fortune 500) and ConocoPhillips (COP, Fortune 500) as major oil companies to miss forecasts for the first quarter.

Chesapeake Energy (CHK, Fortune 500) shares jumped after Chairman and CEO Aubrey McClendon agreed to an early termination of the controversial perk that allowed him to take personal stakes in wells drilled by the company. The company also said its board will name an "independent, non-executive chairman in the near future," though McClendon will continue in his role as CEO.

Sears' (SHLD, Fortune 500) stock jumped after the retailer lifted its outlook and said it expects to turn a profit in the first quarter, compared to analysts' expectations for a loss.

Shares of P.F. Chang's (PFCB) surged after the restaurant chain announced that it is being bought by investment firm Centerbridge Partners. The deal, valued at $1.1 billion, will take P.F. Chang's private and is expected to close by the end of the third quarter.

Shares of Phillips 66 (PSX) were lower on their first day of trading. ConocoPhillips (COP, Fortune 500) spun off its refineries, pipelines and chemicals divisions into the new company called Phillips 66.

Shares of Herbalife (HLF), which sells health care and weight management products through a network of independent distributors, tumbled after hedge fund Greenlight Capital's founder David Einhorn posed a series of questions to Herbalife's executives during the company's earnings conference call. Einhorn, who is known for making short bets against companies, asked for details about the company's sales sources and disclosures that have been provided in the past.

Delta Air Lines (DAL, Fortune 500) announced plans Monday to purchase an oil refinery outside of Philadelphia, a novel approach to reducing its fuel costs. Shares of the airline rose.

* Why Delta is buying an oil refinery

World markets: Britain's FTSE 100 (UKX) finished up 1.3%. Markets in Paris and Frankfurt were closed for the May Day holiday.

Japan's Nikkei (N225) ended down 1.8%, while markets in Hong Kong and Shanghai were closed for the holiday.

Meanwhile, Australia's central bank announced it was cutting its key interest rate by 0.5 percentage points to 3.75%, due to below trend growth in Australia and globally. It was the bank's biggest rate cut since February 2009, when global financial markets were still in near free fall.

Currencies and commodities: The dollar gained ground against the euro, the British pound and Japanese yen.

Oil for June delivery rose $1.29 to settle at $106.16 a barrel.

Gold futures for June delivery fell $1.80 to settle at $1,662.40 an ounce.

Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury were lower, with the yield rising to 1.96% from 1.91% late Monday.

Image

Market Update

4:30 pm : A broad-based bid on the back of some better-than-expected data drove the S&P 500 up more than 1% so that it traded near the multi-year highs set about a month ago, but a gradual decline in afternoon action left the broad market measure hand over about half of its gain.

Early trade was relatively flat as limited trade abroad, stemming from holiday observance, left participants with few directional cues. China reported a Manufacturing PMI reading of 53.3, which is its best reading in about one year, but still less than what had been widely expected. The United Kingdom underwhelmed with its PMI reading of 50.5. Sentiment swung positive almost immediately with the release of the ISM Manufacturing Index, which made surprise improvement to 54.8 from 53.4 in the prior month. News that construction spending increased by 0.1% in March when a 0.5% increase had been broadly anticipated was given little attention.

Financials and Energy helped lead the market's climb. Each sector had ascended to a gain of about 2% before support waned into the close. They still scored gains in excess of 1%, though. Marsh McLennan (MMC 34.35, +0.90) provided a pleasing quarterly report that spurred its shares higher, helping to lead the broader Financial sector. Diversified financial services plays also contributed, while Genworth Financial (GNW 6.15, +0.14) outperformed ahead of its quarterly report. Despite an earnings miss, Chesapeake Energy (CHK 19.60, +1.16) was a top performer among Energy issues, whereas Marathon Petroleum (MPC 41.21, -0.40) slid after it reported an upside earnings surprise. Valero (VLO 24.84, +0.14) also bested expectations for the bottom line, but its shares surrendered a chunk of gains. BP Plc (BP 42.70, -0.71) was pressured for the entire session following its quarterly report, but Anadarko Petroleum (APC 75.06, +1.85) staged a strong gain following its release. Amid the action crude oil climbed more than 1% to clear $106 per barrel for the first time in more than one month.

Although its earnings proved greater than what Wall Street had anticipated, Pfizer (PFE 22.78, -0.12) returned to the red after it had overcome an early loss. Archer Daniels Midland (ADM 33.02, +2.19) was one of the session's top performers. The stock set a multi-month high following a bottom line beat that came despite a relatively light revenue figure. Tech was one of the weaker performing sectors, settling with a gain of only 0.2%.

Heavyweights like Microsoft (MSFT 32.01, -0.01), Apple (AAPL 582.13, -1.85), Cisco (CSCO 19.98, -0.18), and Google (GOOG 604.43, -0.42) hampered the sector, and also dragged on the Nasdaq, which trailed its counterparts into the close and barely eked out a gain.

Tomorrow's calendar features the ADP Employment Report at 8:15 AM ET. It is expected to provide a glimpse into the monthly payrolls report scheduled for release on Friday. Monthly factory orders figures are due tomorrow at 10:00 AM ET. Weekly crude oil inventory data will be posted at 10:30 AM ET.

Advancing Sectors: Energy +1.4%, Financials +1.1%, Materials +0.5%, Telecom +0.5%, Utilities +0.5%, Consumer Discretionary +0.5%, Health Care +0.3%, Industrials +0.3%, Consumer Staples +0.2%, Tech +0.2%
Declining Sectors: NoneDJ30 +65.69 NASDAQ +4.08 NQ100 +0.1% R2K -0.1% SP400 +0.4% SP500 +7.91 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1184/1.84 bln/1333 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1960/766 mln/1059

3:30 pm : Crude oil extended its morning rally in afternoon action, reaching a session high of $106.53 per barrel. The energy component settled the day above the $106.00 per barrel level for the first time in more than one month, booking a gain of 1.2% at $106.18 per barrel. Natural gas continued to show strength. It closed just a penny shy of its session high at $2.37 per MMBtu, or 3.9% higher.

Although precious metals started pit trade strong, both gold and silver sold-off in response to a rally in the dollar following positive ISM data. Gold climbed as high as $1672.20 per ounce and silver touched a floor session high of $31.36 per ounce before the reversal. The metals attempted a slight recovery mid-session, but gave up their gains in afternoon activity. They closed with gold down 0.1% at $1662.50 per ounce and silver down 0.2% at $30.97 per ounce.DJ30 +88.77 NASDAQ +16.13 SP500 +11.12 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1540/1.40 bln/940 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2250/485 mln/760

3:00 pm : With only 60 minutes remaining in today's trade, anticipation is building for the next round of earnings reports, which features the likes of Broadcom (BRCM 36.33, -0.26), CBS (CBS 33.73, +0.35), and Motorola Mobility (MMI 38.73, -0.09). Tomorrow morning brings Clorox (CLX 70.26, +0.16) and Comcast (CMCSA 30.77, +0.43), along with CVS Caremark (CVS 44.97, +0.35), Mastercard (MA 457.79, +5.52), and Time Warner (TWX 38.10, +0.62).

Attention is also turning to tomorrow's calendar, which features the ADP Employment Report at 8:15 AM ET, monthly factory orders figures at 10:00 AM ET, and weekly crude oil inventory data at 10:30 AM ET. DJ30 109.6 NASDAQ +22.82 SP500 +13.63 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1615/1.30 bln/870 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2320/445 mln/690

2:30 pm : Stocks continue to drift sideways as a steady bid keeps the S&P 500 on pace for the its fifth gain in six sessions. During that time the broad market measure has bounded to a cumulative gain greater than 3%.DJ30 +106.14 NASDAQ +19.37 SP500 +12.94 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1675/1.17 bln/805 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2355/400 mln/635

2:00 pm : The Nasdaq has eased down to an afternoon low, but it continues to trade with a nice gain. Heavyweights like Microsoft (MSFT 32.18, +0.16), Apple (AAPL 584.90, +0.92), Cisco (CSCO 20.08, -0.08), and Google (GOOG 606.96, +2.11) are all lagging, resulting in a bit of a drag on the Tech-rich Index.DJ30 +107.28 NASDAQ +23.44 SP500 +14.04 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1655/1.07 bln/800 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2350/365 mln/625

1:30 pm : Stocks recently slipped slightly, but broad market gains remain strong.

The dollar has modestly added to its lead over competing currencies. In turn, the Dollar Index is up 0.2%. Most of the dollar's strength today is owed to a weaker yen, which actually traded higher overnight to implicate shares of exporters on Japan's Nikkei. The yen is currently at 80.2 yen per dollar, up 0.4% for the session. DJ30 +105.92 NASDAQ +27.32 SP500 +14.84 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1700/985 mln/740 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2370/345 mln/600

1:00 pm : A strong, broad-based bid has the major equity averages sporting gains on the order of 1%. The bounce was brought about by a better-than-expected ISM Manufacturing Index.

Both China and the United Kingdom posted underwhelming monthly manufacturing readings, but the latest ISM Manufacturing Index proved better than expected at 54.8, contrasting with calls for a modest decline to 53.0. The number overshadowed a smaller-than-expected 0.1% increase in monthly construction spending.

Trade had been generally flat ahead of the midmorning ISM report, but its release spurred some knee-jerk buying that quickly gained momentum. The climb has since flattened out, but stocks remain near session highs.

Financials and Energy stocks remain out in front, sporting gains of nearly 2%. Among Financials, insurers are looking strong following a pleasing report from Marsh McLennan (MMC 34.41, +0.96). Diversified financial services plays are also contributing. Upside earnings surprises from Marathon Petroleum (MPC 42.26, +0.65), Valero (VLO 25.19, +0.49), and Anadarko Petroleum (APC 75.64, +2.43) have made them leaders among Energy-related issues.

The broad market's advance has helped lift shares of Pfizer (PFE 22.97, +0.07) into positive territory after a weak open. The stock's early weakness came despite an upside earnings surprise of its own. Meanwhile, Archer Daniels Midland (ADM 32.68, +1.85) shares are at a multi-month high following a bottom line beat that came despite a relatively light revenue figure. DJ30 +113.07 NASDAQ +31.19 SP500 +15.47 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1720/925 mln/720 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2375/320 mln/575

12:30 pm : Stocks have steadied their ascent so that they are trading along session highs as they enter early afternoon trade. Oil's climb has also flattened out so that prices remain narrowly above $106 per barrel for a gain of little more than 1%. Meanwhile, the dollar is drifting along with an incremental gain against a basket of major foreign currencies.DJ30 +116.25 NASDAQ +32.56 SP500 +15.85 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1795/825 mln/615 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2410/290 mln/525

12:00 pm : Stocks have moved another leg higher, puting the major equity averages at their best levels of the day.

All 10 major sectors are sporting solid gains, but Financials and Energy are in front -- both sectors currently boast gains of 1.8%. While Financials are currently led by insurers and diversified financial services stocks, Energy plays are being pushed higher by the likes of Valero (VLO 25.41, +0.71) and Anadarko Petroleum (APC 75.73, +2.52), each of which reported an upside earnings surprise for the latest quarter. DJ30 +115.95 NASDAQ +36.44 SP500 +16.33 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1755/715 mln/645 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2380/255 mln/525

11:30 am : The major equity averages continue to sport impressive gains. The steady, strong bid has resulted in selling of Treasuries, such that the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note is now up to 1.95% after it had come in contact with 1.90% this morning. The yield on the 10-year Note was last there in February.DJ30 +95.59 NASDAQ +33.15 SP500 +14.11 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1730/615 mln/640 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2345/225 mln/545

11:00 am : Stocks have extended the climb that began on the back of a better-than-expected ISM Manufacturing Index.

Buying has become broad based, such that all 10 major sectors are sporting solid gains. Financials, up 1.5%, are out in front. The sector is currently led by Marsh McLennan (MMC 34.27, +0.82), which posted a pleasing quarterly report this morning. Fellow insurance play AIG (AIG 34.86, +0.83) has traded higher in kind. DJ30 +87.94 NASDAQ +30.04 SP500 +12.82 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1715/500 mln/600 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2305/180 mln/550

10:30 am : Stocks are at session highs. Crude oil prices are on the climb, too. In fact, the energy component was last quoted at $105.87 per barrel, which makes for a near 1.0% gain. Moments ago prices crossed above $106 per barrel. Natural gas prices have added to their gains. At $2.44 per MMBtu, natural gas prices are now up 2.0%.

Precious metals have pulled back, however. Specifically, gold prices are currently down 0.1% to $1662.30 per ounce. That's about $10 below their morning high. Silver prices were as high as $31.36 per ounce, but are now at $31.14 per ounce, which makes for a 0.4% gain. DJ30 +81.51 NASDAQ +31.60 SP500 +12.60 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1540/345 mln/700 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2090/130 mln/680

10:05 am : Stocks have pushed higher in response to a better-than-expected ISM Manufacturing Index. The April reading improved to 54.8 from 53.4 in the prior month, contrasting with the Briefing.com consensus for a decline to 53.0.

Monthly construction spending numbers were also released moments ago. Overall spending increased by 0.1% in March, but a 0.5% increase had been broadly anticipated. DJ30 +38.18 NASDAQ +14.33 SP500 +6.29 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1145/175 mln/970 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1465/75 mln/1220

09:45 am : The broad market remains flat in the opening minutes of trade, but the Nasdaq has mustered a modest gain after it had lagged in the prior session. The Tech-rich Nasdaq is being helped today by Akamai (AKAM 33.80, +1.21), which is up markedly amid news of insider buying. Just last week the stock was punished for a flawed quarterly report, despite a better-than-expected bottom line.DJ30 -9.50 NASDAQ +6.77 SP500 +0.68 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -0.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.00. Stock futures have eased lower, but a flat start to the first session of May still appears to be in order. Market participants continue to await the latest ISM Manufacturing Index and monthly construction spending numbers -- both of which are due at 10 AM ET -- after some relatively underwhelming Manufacturing PMI readings were released by both China and the United Kingdom. Earnings results remain in the backdrop. The latest round has been generally upbeat, but not exactly stellar.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -0.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.30. Crude oil futures prices are down narrowly in the opening minutes of pit trade. Specifically, the energy component was last quoted at $104.72 per barrel, which maes for a loss of little more than 0.1%. Prices fell in overnight electronic trade to about $104.40 per barrel. Natural gas prices are up a sharp 1.5% to $2.43 per MMBtu, which is actually down a few cents from the morning high it set only minutes ago.

Precious metals prices are also in positive territory. Gold prices were last quoted with a 0.3% gain at $1669.80 per ounce, slightly shy of their morning high above $1672 per ounce. Silver prices were as high as $31.30 per ounce earlier, but have since eased back to $31.22 per ounce for a 0.6% gain.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.00. Action in Europe is limited amid holiday observance, but Britain's FTSE remains open for trade. It is currently up 0.4%, although the United Kingdom Manufacturing PMI slipped down to 50.5 from a downwardly revised 51.9 for the prior month. Lloyds Group (LYG 2.12, +0.16) is a primary leader following its latest earnings report. Fellow financial outfit Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS 7.92, +0.00) is also displaying strength. BP Plc (BP 42.46, -0.95) is at the opposite end of the spectrum following its latest quarterly results. Man Group Plc is faring the worst of any FTSE 100 constituent.

Overnight action in Asia was also limited. Japan's Nikkei was open for trade, though. It suffered a 1.8% loss. Exporters were implicated by a rising yen, which is currently at 79.8 yen per dollar. Sharp Corp and TDK Corp were among the poorest performers, but Nissan Motor (NSANY 20.70, +0.00), Toyota Motor (TM 80.00, -1.78), Sony (SNE 15.80, -0.41), and Hitachi (HIT 63.30, +0.00) all fell on hard losses of their own. Strength was limited to only a few. Kikkoman, Advantest, and Yahoo! Japan were among those that managed to stage advances. Although trade remained closed in China, the country's latest Manufacturing PMI was posted. It registered a 53.3, which is the best reading in about one year, but it still wasn't as strong as what had been widely expected.

Note: ticker quotes reflect US premarket prices.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: flat. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +0.80. Holiday observances abroad have left many foreign markets closed, providing premarket participants with few directional cues. As such, stock futures are essentially flat this morning. Although both the United Kingdom and China reported underwhelming Manufacturing PMI readings, the US doesn't report its ISM Manufacturing Index until 10:00 AM ET today. Monthly construction spending figures will be released at the same time.

The latest round of earnings results has featured a handful of Energy players. Anadarko (APC 74.06, +0.85), BP Plc (BP 42.28, -1.13), Marathon (MPC 41.61, +0.00), and Valero (VLO 24.70, +0.00) all posted earnings that exceeded what had been generally expected, but Enbridge Energy (EEP 30.90, +0.00) missed. Pfizer (PFE 22.65, -0.25) and Archer Daniels Midland (ADM 30.83, +0.00) were in the mix with upside surprises, as were Marsh McLennan (MMC 33.45, +0.00) and Cummins (CMI 115.00, -0.83). Note: ticker quotes reflect premarket prices.

06:24 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -2.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -5.30.

06:24 am : Nikkei...9350.95...-169.90...-1.80%. Hang Seng...Holiday.........

06:24 am : FTSE...5752.40...+14.60...+0.30%. DAX...Holiday.........

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader, http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader and http://chart.ly/users/wrbtrader

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