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 Post subject: April 9th Monday 2012 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +4.80
PostPosted: Mon Apr 09, 2012 8:06 pm 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)

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click on the above image to view today's performance verification

Price Action Trade Performance for Today: +4.80 points or $480 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, all trades were posted real-time in the free #FuturesTrades chat room. You can read today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs for details (e.g. time, price, contract size) about each one of my trades from entry to exit along with price action commentary as the trade traversed in comparison to what's shown in the above image...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=103&t=1189.

To join our free chat room...registration instructions located at a different forum @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=630

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my price action trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our price action trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=151&t=1432

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Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/IMF actions or any important global economic events that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables (key market events) causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that results in swing points and strong continuation price actions. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for my technical analysis. Just as important, these summaries becomes my archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past...something I can not get from my broker statements alone.

U.S. Stock Market Wrap

April 9 (Bloomberg) -- Bloomberg's Pimm Fox and Deborah Kostroun report on the performance of the U.S. equity market today. U.S. stocks fell, dragging the Standard & Poor's 500 Index lower following its worst week of 2012, after employers added fewer jobs than forecast in March.

Lousy Jobs Report Sends Stocks Lower

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click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- U.S. stocks closed sharply lower Monday, the first trading day following a disappointing jobs report last week.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) fell 130 points, or 1%, to end at 12,929. The S&P 500 (SPX) tumbled 16 points, or 1.1%, to 1,382. The Nasdaq (COMP) slid 33 points, or 1.1%, to 3,047.

On Friday, the Labor Department said the U.S. economy added 120,000 jobs in March, following three straight monthly gains of 200,000 jobs or more, a trend economists expected would continue.

The retreat Monday came despite a pair of billion-dollar deals in the technology sector.

AOL (AOL) shares surged 43% after the company said it agreed to sell more than 800 patents to Microsoft (MSFT, Fortune 500) for about $1 billion in cash.

Separately, Facebook agreed to buy photo network Instagram for $1 billion in cash and stock. Facebook, which is in the process of going public, ended 2011 with a cash stash just shy of $4 billion.

Meanwhile, investors flocked toward the safety of U.S. government debt, pushing the yield on the 10-year Treasury notes to 2.03%, its lowest level in nearly a month.

With no major economic reports on tap Monday, investors are questioning the outlook for growth in light of Friday's jobs report, said David Rolfe, chief investment officer of Wedgewood Partners of St. Louis.

Traders are also bracing for a potentially "choppy earnings season," he added.

* First-quarter earnings: They won't be pretty

The companies in the S&P 500 are expected to report combined earnings growth of less than 1% for the first quarter, according to research from S&P Capital IQ.

U.S. stock markets were closed for Good Friday, and most European markets remained dark Monday. On Thursday, U.S. stocks ended mixed, capping the biggest weekly decline of 2012.

Still, stocks are still up sharply for the year and many analysts say the market was poised for a pullback.

"We have had a terrific rally," said Rolfe. "The market was ripe for a correction on any whiff of negative news."

* AOL: You've got money!

Economy: In the evening, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will deliver a speech in Stone Mountain, Ga., on "fostering financial stability."

Friday's jobs report revived speculation that the central bank will launch a third round of asset purchases, a policy known as quantitative easing, or QE3.

Companies: Shares of aluminum producer Alcoa (AA, Fortune 500) eased on worries about the materials sector looming ahead of the latest round of corporate results. Analysts are predicting a 14.5% drop in earnings for the sector, according to FactSet.

Alcoa will report after the closing bell on Tuesday, marking the unofficial start of earnings season.

The banking sector was under pressure, with Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500), JPMorgan (JPM, Fortune 500) and Citibank (C, Fortune 500) down sharply. Investors will get an update on the health of the financial sector later this week when JPMorgan and Wells Fargo (WFC, Fortune 500) report quarterly results Friday.

* Take this jobs report and shove it! Bonds rally.

AT&T (T, Fortune 500) shares eased after the company said Sunday that it had yet to reach a deal with its union on a new contract after the old one expired, but that workers would stay on the job while negotiations continue.

Sherwin-Williams (SHW, Fortune 500) raised its outlook for first-quarter profits, sending the paint company's stock higher.

Analysts at BTIG downgraded shares of Apple (AAPL, Fortune 500) to neutral, despite expectations for another quarter of strong profit growth.

Beauty company Avon Products (AVP, Fortune 500) announced Monday that it had named former Johnson & Johnson (JNJ, Fortune 500) executive Sheri McCoy as its new CEO. The company was in the news last week after it rejected a $10 billion takeover bid from industry rival Coty Inc.

* Europe's still a thorn, but 'out of crisis mode'

World markets: Markets in Germany, the United Kingdom and France were closed for the Easter holiday.

In Asia, Japan's Nikkei (N225) lost 1.5%, while the Shanghai Composite (SHCOMP) slid 0.9%. Hong Kong was closed.

The Chinese government reported Monday that inflation rose at an annual rate of 3.6% in March, higher than expected.

The report comes amid concerns over whether China will be able to ease back from the breakneck growth of recent years without experiencing a "hard landing."

Currencies and commodities: The dollar gained against the euro and the British pound but fell against the Japanese yen.

Oil for May delivery slipped 85 cents to settle at $102.46 a barrel.

Gold futures for April delivery rose $14 to $1,642.50 an ounce.

Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury rose, pushing the yield down to 2.03%.

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Market Update

4:20 pm : Stock closed with a 1.1% loss on the day. The market showed some resilience intraday as the S&P 500 bounced about 0.6% from this morning's low to the afternoon high, but late-day weakness put a dent in that recovery effort. The S&P 500 is down around 2.6% over the past four days. As discussed throughout the day, today's decline follows Friday's disappointing employment data and precedes the Q1 earnings reporting season, which is expected to show more sluggish earnings growth than recent years.

As discussed in today's Page One report, expectations are for the S&P 500 in aggregate to post an increase in earnings of only about 3% compared to the first quarter of 2011. Reports in the end tend to come in above expectations, but the first quarter gain will undoubtedly be lower than the 14% gain for all of 2011, or the 9% gain for the fourth quarter of 2011.

Alcoa (AA 9.60, -0.03) kicks off earnings season with its earnings report tomorrow night, although AA's earnings should not be viewed as a barometer for the rest of earnings season. More importantly, we get reports from Google (GOOG 630.84, -1.48) on Thursday afternoon, followed by JP Morgan (JPM 43.89, -0.45) and Wells Fargo (WFC 33.42, -0.31) Friday morning.

Although there weren't any major earnings announcements today, there were several pieces of influential corporate news. Molina Healthcare (MOH 25.65, -9.36) fell 27% after the company was informed it was not selected to participate in the Ohio Medicaid Managed Care Plan Request for Applications. The company's contract with the state will expire without renewal at the end of 2012. Competitor, Centene (CNC 42.97, -7.83) is lower by 15% on similar news.

Shares of Eli Lily (LLY 39.72, -0.76) are down 1.6% despite the company announcing the Food and Drug Administration has approved Amyvid for use in patients under evaluation for Alzheimer's and other diseases related to cognitive decline.

Shares of AOL (AOL 26.40, +7.98) are one of the few bright spots, trading up 42% after the company announced a $1 billion patent deal with Microsoft (MSFT 31.10, -0.42). The deal pays AOL $1.056 billion in cash for more than 800 of its patents and their related applications. Today's announcement includes the sale of stock of an AOL subsidy upon which the company expects to see a capital loss for tax purposes.

Finally, it was also reported that Facebook will buy mobile photo sharing company Instagram, for $1 billion. This initially led to weakness in Shutterfly (SFLY 28.21, -1.26), due to competitive concerns, but it has since recovered the majority of its headline-driven decline.

Looking at fixed income, treasuries saw gains for a fourth consecutive session and have now erased all of their losses following the March 13 FOMC meeting. Today's buying has dropped the 10-yr yield to a low of 2.019% but closing near 2.037%. Flattening persists along the yield curve with the 2-10-yr spread tighter at 171.5 basis points.

Finally, volume was relatively light today, with Europe still closed for Easter.DJ30 -130.55 NASDAQ -33.42 SP500 -15.88 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 462/1.33 bln/2080 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 636/724.8 mln/2415

3:30 pm : Crude oil traded in negative territory during pit trade, falling to a session low of $100.81 per barrel. The energy component then spent the remainder of floor trade trending higher, but still closed the session with a 0.8% loss at $102.45 per barrel. On the other hand, natural gas chopped around near the unchanged line during its morning pit session, and ticked higher in the afternoon to book again of 1.0%, closing at $2.11 per MMBtu.

Gold traded in the black during today’s pit trade while silver fell to a session low of $31.31 per ounce. The dollar saw a sharp pullback late in the morning session which caused precious metals to tick back up towards their highs. Gold finished pit trade with a gain of 0.9% at $1644.00 per ounce, whereas silver closed its floor session at $31.51 per ounce, or 0.7% lower. Copper trended lower during after seeing pressure in electronic trade, closing trade with a loss of 2.1% at $3.72 per pound.DJ30 -94.64 NASDAQ -25.34 SP500 -12.25 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 513/1.06 bln/2030 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 694/455.0 mln/2383

3:00 pm : Treasuries held in a tight rage over the course of the U.S. session as the complex ended at its best level since March 13. The complex gained for a fourth consecutive session with buying dropping the 10-yr yield down to 2.033%. An advance of 17/32 had the long bond leading the way with a gain of 0.6%. Flattening continued along the yield curve with the 2-10-yr spread trading tighter at 172.5 bps. Meanwhile, precious metals were mixed as gold added $17 at $1647 and silver fell $0.10 to near 31.65. Tuesday’s data is limited to wholesale inventories. Treasury will hold a 3-yr note auction.

DJ30 -84.65 NASDAQ -22.01 SP500 -10.85 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 515/967.9 mln/2002 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 694/416.2 mln/2369

2:30 pm : The major averages are trading near their best levels as they continue to grind higher in afternoon trade. Both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 hold losses of 0.9% while the Dow sees slight outperformance with a 0.7% decline.

Sony Corp. (SNE 20.10, +0.09) is holding a modest gain of 0.5% after announcing it would trim 10,000 jobs, or roughly 6% of its payroll. Today’s strength has allowed the stock to hold key support in the $20.00 area. DJ30 -94.07 NASDAQ -26.05 SP500 -12.27 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 447/901.0 mln/2057 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 618/385.1 mln/2441

2:00 pm : The dollar index is trading near session lows as it looks to hold the 79.70 level. Action has been rather lackluster as select Asian markets and all of the major European bourses were closed for Easter. After seeing early strength against most of the major currencies, the index is now lower against all of the majors except for the yen. Recent dollar weakness has corresponded with a turnaround in the yen, which has slipped to 81.65 per dollar after climbing to 81.20. The softening of the yen comes ahead of tonight’s Bank of Japan interest rate decision as some expect the central bank to expand its loose money policy. DJ30 -98.39 NASDAQ -27.52 SP500 -12.94 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 432/831.8 mln/2065 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 583/352.3 mln/2466

1:30 pm : The market is still showing an approximate 1% loss on the day, but it is resilient, as the S&P has bounced about 0.4% from this morning's low. As discussed throughout the day, today's decline follows Friday's disappointing employment data, and precedes the Q1 earnings reporting season, which is expected to show more sluggish earnings growth.

As discussed in today's Page One report, expectations are for the S&P 500 in aggregate to post an increase in earnings of only about 3% compared to the first quarter of 2011. Reports in the end tend to come in above expectations, but the first quarter gain will undoubtedly be lower than the 14% gain for all of 2011, or the 9% gain for the fourth quarter of 2011.

Alcoa (AA 9.59 -0.04) reports tomorrow night. Later this week we get reports from Google (GOOG 630.79, -1.53) on Thursday afternoon, followed by JP Morgan (JPM 43.97, -0.37) and Wells Fargo (WFC 33.48, -0.25) Friday morning.DJ30 -114.05 NASDAQ -31.13 SP500 -14.79 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 402/764.6 mln/2087 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 531/323.3 mln/2502

12:55 pm : The major market averages are off their worst levels of the session, but still hold sizable losses. Today’s selling comes on the heels of Friday’s disappointing nonfarm payrolls data, and after a hotter than expected Chinese CPI (3.6% YoY). Select Asian markets and all of the European bourses were closed today for Easter.

Molina Healthcare (MOH 26.50, -8.51) is down 24.3% after the company was informed it was not selected to participate in the Ohio Medicaid Managed Care Plan Request for Applications. The company’s contract with the state will expire without renewal at the end of 2012. Competitor, Centene (CNC 43.80, -7.00) is lower by 13.8% on similar news.

Shares of Eli Lily (LLY 39.3, -0.65) are down 1.6% despite the company announcing the Food and Drug Administration has approved Amyvid for use in patients under evaluation for Alzheimer’s and other diseases related to cognitive decline.

Alcoa (AA 9.60, -0.03) has slipped into negative territory as traders await tomorrow’s start to earnings season. The aluminum maker will kick off earnings season when it releases its first quarter results following tomorrow’s lose.

Shares of AOL (AOL 26.75, +8.33) are one of the few bright spots, trading up 42% after the company announced a $1 billion patent deal with Microsoft (MSFT 31.39, -0.13). The deal pays AOL $1.056 billion in cash for more than 800 of its patents and their related applications. Today’s announcement includes the sale of stock of an AOL subsidy upon which the company expects to see a capital loss for tax purposes.

Treasuries are seeing gains for a fourth consecutive session and have now erased all of their losses following the March 13 FOMC meeting. Today’s buying has dropped the 10-yr yield to a low of 2.019% with current action taking place near 2.035%. Flattening persists along the yield curve with the 2-10-yr spread tighter at 171.5 basis points. DJ30 -111.63 NASDAQ -27.66 SP500 -14.13 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 394/704.8 mln/2080 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 535/298.2 mln/2496

12:30 pm : The major indices hold near session lows as sellers remain in control. The S&P 500 leads the decline with a loss of 1.2% while the Nasdaq and Dow are down 1.1% and 1.0% respectively.

Alcoa (AA 9.59, -0.05) has slipped into negative territory as traders await tomorrow’s start to earnings season. The aluminum maker will kick off earnings season when it releases its first quarter results following tomorrow’s lose. DJ30 -127.07 NASDAQ -32.82 SP500 -16.03 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 377/642.7 mln/2082 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 485/273.1 mln/2552

12:00 pm : The major averages are back near session lows as sellers remain in control. All three of the major averages are seeing losses of similar magnitude, trading down 1.2%.

Shares of Eli Lily (LLY 39.81, -0.67) are down 1.7% despite the company announcing the Food and Drug Administration has approved Amyvid for use in patients under evaluation for Alzheimer’s and other diseases related to cognitive decline. DJ30 -147.39 NASDAQ -35.55 SP500 -17.62 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 351/575.3 mln/2110 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 485/246.1 mln/2536

11:30 am : Treasuries are seeing a choppy session as action holds near Friday’s highs. Modest buying of longer dated paper has yields down a couple of basis points during today’s session and has the 10-yr searching for its first sub-2.00% print since March 12. The long bond is leading today’s advance as a gain of 17/32 has it nearing resistance in the 99 00/32 area. A flatter yield curve has persists with the 2-10-yr spread tighter at 172.5 basis points. Meanwhile, precious metals are mixed with gold up $8 at $1638 and silver down $0.40 near $31.35.DJ30 -150.30 NASDAQ -38.19 SP500 -18.47 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 340/507.2 mln/2100 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 477/221.2 mln/2537

11:00 am : The major averages are off their worst levels, but still hold losses of close to 1.0%. The S&P 500 is now the worst performer among the major indices, trading down 1.2%.

Molina Healthcare (MOH 26.36, -8.65) is down 24.7% after the company was informed it was not selected to participate in the Ohio Medicaid Managed Care Plan Request for Applications. The company’s contract with the state will expire without renewal at the end of 2012. Meanwhile, Centene (CNC 43.81, -6.99) is lower by 13.8% on similar news. DJ30 -130.29 NASDAQ -28.03 SP500 -15.76 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 368/413.5 mln/2047 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 497/184.7 mln/2482

10:35 am : The dollar index has pulled back sharply, but has only given select commodities a boost. In the energy, May crude oil has been in negative territory all session and didn't benefit from that pull back in the dollar index. Crude hit a new session low of $101.27 a short while ago and remains near that low in current trade, now at $11.49/barrel, down 1.7%.

May natural gas was in the red overnight, but gained some steam this morning. About 20 minutes after floor trading began, nat gas rallied to a new session high of $2.11. Currently, it's up 0.3% at $2.10/MMBtu.

In metals, Apr gold and May silver are mixed following the recent pullback in the dollar index. Gold is now back near session highs, while silver is attempting to come off its recently-hit session low of $31.43. Currently, silver is modestly lower at $31.63, down 0.4% and gold is +1.0% at $1646.80/oz.DJ30 -127.52 NASDAQ -32.45 SP500 -15.60 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 350/331 mln/2049 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 468/157 mln/2417

10:00 am : The major averages are holding on session lows as sellers remain in control following Friday’s jobs report. The Nasdaq is pacing today’s decline with a loss of 1.5% while the S&P 500 and Dow trade lower by 1.4% and 1.2% respectively.

Shares of AOL (AOL 26.64, +8.22) are one of the few bright spots, trading up 44.6% after the company announced a $1 billion patent deal with Microsoft (MSFT 31.09, -0.43). The deal pays AOL $1.056 billion in cash for more than 800 of its patents and their related applications. Today’s announcement includes the sale of stock of an AOL subsidy upon which the company expects to see a capital loss for tax purposes. DJ30 -151.14 NASDAQ -47.22 SP500 -19.17 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 284/185.7 mln/2057 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 371/104.4 mln/2510

09:45 am : The major averages are under pressure in the opening minutes of trade. Selling is most pronounced in the Nasdaq as the tech-heavy index is down 1.3% while a loss of 0.9% has the Dow seeing some slight outperformance. Meanwhile, financials and energy are the worst perofrming sectors in the S&P 500, trading down 1.7% and 1.4% respectively.DJ30 -135.47 NASDAQ -41.21 SP500 -17.22 NASDAQ Vol 108.9 mln NYSE Vol 79.4 mln

09:11 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -16.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -32.80. Equity futures are set for a lower open as Friday’s disappointing nonfarm payrolls report weighs. All three of the major averages are projected to open lower by close to 1.0% as futures remain trapped near their post-jobs report lows. Meanwhile, the dollar index is seeing small gains as it looks to push back above the 80.00 level. The greenback trades higher against all of the other major currencies expect for the yen, which is benefitting from safe-haven flows and is up 0.4%. Meanwhile, Treasuries are seeing a solid bid with buying dropping the 10-yr yield to 2.035%. There is no data scheduled for today’s session.

08:59 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -18.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -32.50. Treasuries are seeing a continuation of Friday’s gains as modest buying persists across the complex. An advance of 5/32 has the 10-yr note testing its best levels since March 13, the date of the last FOMC meeting. Today's buying has dropped the 10-yr yield a couple of basis points to 2.045%, and has the benchmark yield looking to slip below the 2.00% threshold for the first time since March 9. Meanwhile, flattening continues along the yield curve as the 2-10-yr spread trades tighter at 172 basis points.

08:28 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -18.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -33.50. Overseas markets that were open for trade saw selling pressure as Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report weighed. Selling across Asia was apparent as Japan’s Nikkei and China’s Shanghai Composite lost 1.5% and 0.9% respectively. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was closed for Easter. Meanwhile, European bourses are closed today for the Easter holiday.

The Nikkei lost 1.5% to finish lower for a fifth consecutive session, and is now in the midst of its longest losing streak since November. Exporters were weak on the stronger yen as Nissan Motor lost 3.4% and TDK Corp. shed 1.7%. Sony Corp. outperformed with a gain of 0.6% after announcing it would trim 10,000 jobs, or roughly 6% of its payroll. Elsewhere, the Shanghai Composite shed 0.9% after Chinese CPI saw a hotter than expected 3.6% YoY reading. Real estate developers and financials were among the hardest hit sectors as China Citic Bank and Shenzhen Properties & Resources Development fell 2.3% and 3.8% respectively.

In Europe, the major averages were all closed for the Easter holiday. Markets will reopen tomorrow.

07:58 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -18.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -35.30. Equity futures are sharply lower following Friday’s disappointing nonfarm payrolls data. Futures on the major averages hold near Friday’s lows (futures were open for one hour) as all three are seeing losses of close to 1.0%. Some modest buying continues across the Treasury complex, which in its holiday shortened session saw aggressive buying. The 10-yr yield tumbled more than 10 bps during Friday’s flight to safety and now holds near 2.04%, its lowest level since March 13. There is no data scheduled for release during today’s session.

06:22 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -17.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -34.00.

06:22 am : Nikkei...9546.26...-142.20...-1.50%. Hang Seng...Holiday.........

06:22 am : FTSE...Holiday......... DAX...Holiday.........

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader, http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader and http://chart.ly/users/wrbtrader

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