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 Post subject: April 30th Monday 2012 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +11.40
PostPosted: Tue May 01, 2012 4:09 am 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)

Attachment:
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click on the above image to view today's performance verification

Price Action Trade Performance for Today: +11.40 points or $1140 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, all trades were posted real-time in the free #FuturesTrades chat room. You can read today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs for details (e.g. time, price, contract size) about each one of my trades from entry to exit along with price action commentary as the trade traversed in comparison to what's shown in the above image...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=103&t=1206.

To join our free chat room...registration instructions located at a different forum @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=630

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my price action trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our price action trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=151&t=1432

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Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/IMF actions or any important global economic events that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables (key market events) causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that results in swing points and strong continuation price actions. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for my technical analysis. Just as important, these summaries becomes my archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past...something I can not get from my broker statements alone.

Stocks Finish Worst Month Of The Year

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click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- U.S. stocks finished in the red Monday, ending a mostly sour month on a weak note.

The Wall Street adage of "sell in May and go away" got an early start in 2012. Following three months of solid gains, all three major indexes posted their worst monthly returns of the year.

The Dow finished flat in April, while the S&P 500 posted a 0.8% loss and the Nasdaq dropped 1.5%. For the first three months of the year, the major indexes had posted an increase of at least 2% each month.

Stocks hit a rough patch in April as investors faced a series of U.S. economic reports suggesting a stalled recovery, including a lousy March jobs report at the start of the month and more worrying signs out of Europe.

"We're seeing a replay of the movie that was showing in 2010 and 2011," said Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott. "The recent economic data has clearly softened, and concerns over what's going on in Europe are rising again."

* Welcome to 2011: 'Old' risks are back!

In that vein, Monday's modest losses were driven by a duo of weak U.S. economic reports and news that Spain's economy has fallen into recession.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) dropped 15 points, or 0.1%, the S&P 500 (SPX) slipped 5 points, or 0.4%, and the Nasdaq (COMP) lost 23 points, or 0.7%.

Whether or not investors will continue to "sell in May" depends on the upcoming economic news, Luschini said.

"Any strength we've seen this month has been on the back of better-than-expected earnings results, but the sustainability of the market at this point is predicated on an accelerated pace of economic growth," he added.

Investors will likely be cautious this week amid of slew of economic data that's leading up to the all-important jobs report for April, due on Friday. Economists are expecting that 162,000 jobs were added in April, which is an improvement from March. But that pace is still slow compared to job gains in December, January and February -- which exceeded 200,000.

U.S. stocks finished higher Friday, as positive corporate results held more sway than a report showing disappointing first-quarter economic growth.

Despite the recent weakness, stocks are still solidly higher for the year. The Dow is up 8%, while the S&P is 11% higher and the Nasdaq is up almost 17%
0:00 /4:27Buffett's carpet chief eyes housing bounce

World markets: On Monday, Spain's government said its economy declined for the second straight quarter, revealing the nation is in recession. The report came just days after Standard and Poor's downgraded Spain's credit rating to BBB+ and its unemployment rate hit a record high.

S&P downgraded 16 Spanish banks, but the move wasn't a surprise, considering the rating agency's downgrade of the nation last week.

* Big Three's biggest problem is Europe

European stocks finished mixed. Britain's FTSE 100 (UKX) rose slightly, while the DAX (DAX) in Germany shed 0.5% and France's CAC 40 (CAC40) dropped 1.5%.

The Hang Seng (HSI) in Hong Kong ended 1.7% higher. Markets in Tokyo and Shanghai were closed for holidays.

Companies: Barnes & Noble (BKS, Fortune 500) shares surged more than 50% after the book merchant sold a 17.6% stake in its Nook e-reader to Microsoft (MSFT, Fortune 500) for $300 million.

Shares of Sunoco (SUN, Fortune 500) spiked 20% after Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) said it is buying the refiner in a $5.3 billion deal.

Shares of Humana (HUM, Fortune 500) tumbled after the health insurer posted a lower-than-expected first-quarter profit. While the company boosted its full-year outlook, the forecast fell short of analysts' expectations.

* China news site worth more than New York Times

NYSE's Euronext's (NYX, Fortune 500) stock fell after the stock exchange operator reported a 44% drop in its quarterly profit, in part due to costs resulting from the failed merger with Germany's Deutsche Boerse.

Economy: A government report showed that spending by U.S. consumers slowed more than expected in March, even while income rose at a faster-than-expected pace.

The Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index for April fell sharply to 56.2, down from 62.2 in March and below expectations for 60. While any figure above 50 indicates expansion, April's reading suggests a significant slowdown in business activity for the Midwest region.

* Video - Is the Fed blowing up a bond bubble?

Currencies and commodities: The dollar rose against the euro and the British pound, but was lower against the Japanese yen.

Oil for June delivery fell 6 cents to settle at $104.87 a barrel.

Gold futures for June delivery fell 60 cents to settle at $1,664.20 an ounce.

Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury rose Monday, pushing the yield down to 1.91% from 1.93% late Friday.

Image

Market Update

4:30 pm : April ended on a modestly lower note, perhaps appropriately since it marked the first monthly loss for the S&P 500 since November.

Stocks had a four session streak of gains and a run of four straight monthly gains snapped today. Motivation to bid stocks higher was undermined by news that Spain's economy is officially in recession and then participants were dealt some lackluster domestic data. Personal spending increased by 0.3% during March, but that's a slower clip than the 0.5% increase that had been expected, on average, among economists polled by Briefing.com. The smaller-than-expected increase came despite a stronger-than-expected pickup in personal income, which increased by 0.4% when a 0.2% increase had been widely anticipated. As for core personal consumption expenditures (PCE), they increased by 0.2% month over month, as had been broadly expected. Separately, the latest Chicago PMI reading came in at 56.2, which is well below the 60.0 that had been expected broadly.

Earnings reports were anything but stellar. Humana (HUM 80.59, -7.23) was among the more widely held names to report, but its earnings mess was met with a concerted selling effort that sank the stock some 8% to a 2012 low. Merck (MRK 39.24, +0.78) offered the Health Care sector support by pushing higher in response to news that it won a patent infringement lawsuit.

There were a couple of impressive performances in the midst of marred broad market action. Sunoco (SUN 49.29, +8.38) spiked to a multi-year high because of news that it will be acquired by Energy Transfer Partners (ETP 49.63, +1.71) in a deal that values shares of the former at $50.13 per share. That news inspired interest in a handful of oil and gas refiners and marketers, helping the broader Energy sector work its way up to a 0.5% gain, which is second only to the 0.6% gain staged by Telecom. Barnes & Noble (BKS 20.75, +7.07) settled at a session low, but still booked a gain of about 50% on the back of news that the company has entered a strategic partnership with Microsoft (MSFT 32.01, +0.03) to accelerate the transition into e-reading.

Advancing Sectors: Telecom +0.6%, Energy +0.5%, Utilities +0.2%
Declining Sectors: Health Care -0.1%, Consumer Staples -0.3%, Consumer Discretionary -0.5%, Financials -0.6%, Materials -0.7%, Industrials -0.9%, Tech -0.9%DJ30 -14.68 NASDAQ -22.84 NQ100 -0.6% R2K -1.0% SP400 -0.8% SP500 -5.45 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 855/1.60 bln/1680 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1181/846 mln/1841

3:30 pm : Broad weakness among commodities in the early going had the CRB Index down markedly, but a rebound among several key constituents helped the CRB end the day with a narrow gain of 0.1%.

Crude oil spent the majority of the day inching higher to pull out of negative territory just minutes before floor trade closed. Although the energy component was as low as $103.97 per barrel this morning, it managed to finish its session a few pennies above the unchanged line at $104.89 per barrel. Natural gas also began pit trade in the red, but it soon trended higher, setting a session high of $2.29 per MMBtu along the way. It settled at $2.28 per MMBU for a 4.6% gain.

Precious metals sold-off further moments before pit trade opened, with gold dipping to $1645.10 per ounce. The metal then trended higher to close pit trade just below the unchanged line at $1664.40 per ounce. Silver chopped around in a consolidative manner for most of the morning session, touching a session low of $30.62 per ounce, but it gained some momentum going into afternoon action and settled floor trade at $31.02 per ounce for a 1.2% loss.DJ30 -35.46 NASDAQ -22.49 SP500 -7.54 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 870/1.15 bln/1640 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1130/430 mln/1835

3:00 pm : Stocks recently slipped to a new session low, but they have been quick to bounce up from that mark to return to the trading range that they had held close to for the past few hours. With only 60 minutes remaining before the toll of the final bell it appears that the stock market's four-session streak of gains will come to an end.DJ30 -40.98 NASDAQ -23.63 SP500 -7.84 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 830/1.06 bln/1665 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1050/400 mln/1930

2:30 pm : Stocks continue to slog along, leaving the S&P 500 stuck in the red with a sizable loss.

The lackluster action is evident in the absence of participation today. The apathy has left share volume to advance at an anemic pace. Lack of share volume is often regarded as tantamount to lack of conviction. DJ30 -42.31 NASDAQ -21.40 SP500 -7.66 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 825/955 mln/1650 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1070/360 mln/1900

2:00 pm : The stock market has spent the past few hours chopping along in a narrow range with a modest loss. That has helped support a steady bid for Treasuries, keeping the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note only narrowly above 1.90%. It has been nearly three months since the yield on the 10-year Note was below 1.90%.DJ30 -37.84 NASDAQ -20.15 SP500 -7.19 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 835/885 mln/1630 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1040/335 mln/1910

1:30 pm : Shares of managed care play Humana (HUM 80.51, -7.31) are down more than 8% in response to the company's earnings miss this morning. The stock is among the poorest peformers of the Health Care sector, which has managed to limit its loss to only 0.3%. Merck (MRK 39.18, +0.72) remains a source of support following news of its patent infringement lawsuit victory.DJ30 -40.11 NASDAQ -22.12 SP500 -7.73 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 835/810 mln/1620 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1075/305 mln/1875

1:00 pm : The major equity averages are mired in negative territorty with modest losses as many market participants opt to sit back following solid gains in the prior week.

The S&P 500 scored for consecutive gains to finish last week on a positive note, and book its best weekly performance in six weeks of trade. However, motivation to extend the push higher has been undermined by a handful of underwhelming headlines, including news that Spain's economy is officially in recession, personal spending during March increased at slower-than-expected pace, and a disappointing Chicago PMI.

Frequent broad market leaders, Tech and Financials, are both plodding along with sizable losses. The two sectors are down 0.8% and 0.7%, respectively. Meanwhile, Energy and Telecom stocks make up the only two sectors that have found higher ground. They're up 0.4% and 0.5%, respectively.

Although the latest batch of quarterly reports has proven mixed, some excitement has stemmed from news that Sunoco (SUN 48.89, +7.98) will be acquired by Energy Transfer Partners (ETP 49.00, +1.08) in a deal that values shares of the former at $50.13 per share, while Barnes & Noble (BKS 22.16, +8.48) has entered a strategic partnership with Microsoft (MSFT 32.00, +0.05) to accelerate the transition into e-reading. DJ30 -30.50 NASDAQ -20.02 SP500 -6.64 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 820/745 mln/1600 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1055/285 mln/1865

12:30 pm : Energy stocks have rallied into positive territory, resulting in a 0.3% gain. The sector's move comes despite steady pressure against crude oil prices, which are presently down 0.5% at $104.35 per barrel. Sunoco (SUN 48.79, +7.88) is a standout in the space following news that the company will be acquired by Energy Transfer Partners (ETP 49.57, +1.65) in a deal that values the former at $50.13 per share, which makes for a 23% premium over the stock's prior session closing prices. However, the news has failed to help the likes of Valero (VLO 24.59, -0.53), which have rolled over to trade with a pronounced loss after opening the session in positive territory.DJ30 -33.89 NASDAQ -18.22 SP500 -6.33 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 785/675 mln/1615 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 970/260 mln/1925

12:00 pm : Broad market action remains weak with all three major averages mired in negative territory, wrestling with modest losses. However, shares of Barnes & Noble (BKS 22.67, +8.99) are currently up roughly 65%, which is actually less than the gain that they were sporting at the open.

The surge in shares of BKS to their best level in about three years comes in response to news that the company has entered a strategic partnership with Microsoft (MSFT 32.00, +0.05) intended to accelerate the transition into e-reading. Shares of BKS have been hurt often in the past couple of years due to the one-two punch of increased Internet shopping and rising popularity of e-books and e-readers. DJ30 -32.09 NASDAQ -16.56 SP500 -6.54 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 760/575 mln/1615 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 940/225 mln/1940

11:30 am : Stocks remain mired in the red with varied losses. Materials stocks and Industrials stocks are in the worst shape; those two sectors are down 1.1% and 1.0%, respectively. Among Materials plays, Dow Chemical (DOW 33.89, -0.84), International Paper (IP 33.08, -0.77), and Monsanto (MON 76.12, -1.72) are in especially weak shape, while Norfolk Southern (NSC 72.42, -0.95) and Fastenal (FAST 46.97, -0.55) drag down the Industrials sector.DJ30 -34.02 NASDAQ -18.85 SP500 -6.65 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 795/475 mln/1540 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 925/185 mln/1910

11:00 am : The Dow recently attempted to trade out of the red, but it was rebuffed at the flat line. Its failure to put together a gain has prompted participants to put added pressure on stocks, such that both the Dow and the S&P 500 are now at the session lows they set earlier this morning.

Telecom stocks have managed to put together a gain in the face of broad market weakness. Up 0.4%, Telecom makes up the only sector that has managed to muster a gain. Telecom has been a relatively strong performer for the entire month -- the sector is currently positioned for a 4.0% monthly gain, while the S&P 500 is positioned for a monthly loss of nearly 1%. DJ30 -36.74 NASDAQ -18.91 SP500 -7.60 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 745/385 mln/1540 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 860/155 mln/1940

10:30 am : Crude oil futures prices continue to trade with moderate weakness; the energy component was last quoted at $104.40 per barrel, which makes for a 0.5% loss, after it had traded near $104 per barrel near the open of pit trade. Meanwhile, natural gas prices are at $2.29 per MMBtu with a 0.6% loss.

As for action among precious metals, gold prices are down 0.4% to $1658 per ounce, but silver is off by 1.9% at $30.83 per ounce. Earlier this morning the former was down to about $1645 per ounce, while the latter was a slow as $30.61 per ounce.

Overall weakness in the commodity complex has the CRB Index down 0.6%. DJ30 -22.44 NASDAQ -19.23 SP500 -6.61 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 750/275 mln/1470 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 875/115 mln/1880

10:00 am : Stocks remain in the red, but blue chips are helping the Dow keep its loss to a minimum. Names like Merck (MRK 39.23, +0.77) and Kraft (KFT 39.62, +0.22) have proven especially helpful in the Dow's effort. Shares of MRK are in focus following news that the company won a patent infringement lawsuit, while KFT shares have been helped by an analyst upgrade.DJ30 -20.02 NASDAQ -19.09 SP500 -6.00 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 675/140 mln/1450 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 775/75 mln/1935

09:45 am : Stocks opened trade on a modestly lower note, but pressure has picked up in response to a disappointing Chicago PMI reading, which came in at 56.2 when a reading of 60.0 had been expected, on average, among economists polled by Briefing.com. Overall losses still aren't that steep, though.

While selling this morning isn't terribly intense, there isn't a single sector in positive territory. Health Care stocks have done the best job of limiting losses; their collective effort has the Health Care sector down by just 0.1%. Financials and Industrials, both down 0.7%, are at the opposite end of the spectrum. DJ30 -31.41 NASDAQ -13.33 SP500 -6.18 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -3.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -8.60. Amid a morning of lackluster headlines stock futures suggest that the final session of the month will start on a modestly lower note. The stock market enters the day on track for a monthly loss of less than 1%. Although that's only a modest loss, it stands as the stock market's first negative month since it eased down 0.5% during November.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -4.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -10.00. Pressure against commodities has the CRB Index down about 0.4% this morning. Among its more closely tracked constituents, oil prices are down about 0.6% to $104.20 per barrel in early pit trade. Natural gas prices are down by about one penny to $2.29 per MMBtu after pulling back from a morning high above $2.30 per MMBtu only minutes ago. Precious metals are also under pressure. Specifically, gold prices are now down 0.6% at $1653 per ounce after recovering from a recent drop that sent prices of the yellow metal to about $1645 per ounce. Meanwhile, silver is down nearly 2% at $30.80 per ounce.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -4.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -9.80. Stock futures remain under modest pressure following the release of the latest monthly income and spending numbers. Personal spending increased by 0.3% during March, but that's a slower clip than the 0.5% increase that had been expected, on average, among economists polled by Briefing.com. The smaller-than-expected increase came despite a stronger-than-expected pickup in personal income, which increased by 0.4% when a 0.2% increase had been widely anticipated. As for core personal consumption expenditures (PCE), they increased by 0.2% month over month, as had been broadly expected.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -4.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -9.50. After four consecutive gains fueled the best week for the S&P 500 in six weeks of trade, a downward bias this morning has pressured stock futures. The weakened tone today comes amid varied losses in Europe, where traders are digesting news that Spain's economy is officially in recession, and a mixed batch of quarterly earnings reports. Commodities are also getting hit with some selling pressure, but the dollar has benefited from a modest bid, such that it currently leads a collection of competing currencies by about 0.2%. Coming up on today's calendar, monthly personal income and spending numbers are due at the bottom of the hour. The latest Chicago PMI will be posted at 9:45 AM ET.

06:26 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -2.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.00.

06:26 am : Nikkei...Holiday......... Hang Seng...21094.21...+352.80...+1.70%.

06:26 am : FTSE...5747.79...-0.90...0.00. DAX...6806.16...+4.80...+0.10%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader, http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader and http://chart.ly/users/wrbtrader

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