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 Post subject: March 28th Wednesday 2012 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +21.20
PostPosted: Wed Mar 28, 2012 8:00 pm 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)

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click on the above image to view today's performance verification

Price Action Trade Performance for Today: +21.20 points or $2120 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, all trades were posted real-time in the free #FuturesTrades chat room. You can read today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs for details (e.g. time, price, contract size) about each one of my trades from entry to exit along with price action commentary as the trade traversed in comparison to what's shown in the above image...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=102&t=1179.

To join our free chat room...registration instructions located at a different forum @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=630

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my price action trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our price action trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=150&t=1403

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Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/IMF actions or any important global economic events that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables (key market events) causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that results in swing points and strong continuation price actions. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for my technical analysis. Just as important, these summaries becomes my archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past...something I can not get from my broker statements alone.

Stocks Slide On Economic Jitters

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click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Stocks closed in the red Wednesday as investors grew concerned about the health of the global economy.

Investors already jittery about slowing growth overseas became more wary after a report on U.S. durable goods orders came in below expectations before the market opened.

"It doesn't take economic numbers meeting expectations to give the markets support. They need to beat expectations," said Guy LeBas, chief fixed income strategist at Janney Capital Markets.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) closed down 72 points, or 0.6%. The S&P 500 (SPX) dipped 7 points, or 0.5%. The Nasdaq (COMP) fell 15 points, or 0.5%.

The commodities market dropped even further. Oil and copper fell roughly 2%, and gold lost more than 1%.

Analysts said that it was a light trading day overall with a smaller number of shares changing hands.

With Europe's debt drama on the back burner for now, investors are waiting for first-quarter results to decide whether to continue betting on a run up in the stock market. But the first of the quarterly reports is still about two weeks away.

* Gas tops $3.90 a gallon

"The market seems to be catching its breath today," said Ryan Detrick, senior technical strategist at Schaeffer's Investment Research. "Investors are really waiting for the next major potential driver."

U.S. stocks ended slightly lower Tuesday after news that home prices in 20 major cities fell to the lowest levels since 2002. A disappointing report on consumer confidence further rattled investors.

Tuesday's declines followed a big run-up in the previous day's session, as Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke's comments on the job market gave investors reason to believe the central bank will keep interest rates low.

Stocks have rallied in 2012 on improving economic data and easing concerns about the debt crisis in Europe. With the year's first quarter of trading ending Friday, the Dow has climbed 8%, the S&P 500 has gained nearly 13% and the Nasdaq is up more than 20%.

* Video - Will the Dow soon hit a new all-time high?

Economy: A government report on durable goods orders showed that orders increased 2.2% in February, less than the 2.8% expected by economists.

The price of an average gallon of regular gas surpassed the $3.90 mark Wednesday, according to the latest daily survey conducted for the motorist group AAA. Prices are now within a dime of the $4 threshold after 19 consecutive daily increases.

* Nothing cheesy here: Annie's IPO soars 60%

Companies: Annie's (BNNY), the organic food maker known for its macaroni & cheese, closed 90% above its opening price at $36 on its debut day on the New York Stock Exchange. The company priced shares at $19, above the established $16 to $18 range. Annie's has sold 5 million shares for its initial public offering.

Vocera Communications (VCRA) also debuted on the NYSE Wednesday, and its shares closed up 34%.

Regional Management (RM), the third company to go public Wednesday, closed 9% higher.

Family Dollar Stores (FDO, Fortune 500) reported quarterly earnings of $1.15 a share on $2.5 billion in revenue. The results were slightly better than analyst estimates.

* Check gas prices in your state

Currencies and commodities: The dollar lost ground against the Japanese yen, but strengthened against the euro and British pound.

Oil for May delivery slipped $1.92 to $105.41 a barrel.

Gold futures for April delivery fell $27.00 to $1,657.90 an ounce.

World markets: European markets closed in the red Wednesday. Britain's FTSE 100 (UKX) ended 1% lower, while the DAX (DAX) in Germany and France's CAC 40 (CAC40) both lost 1.1%.

Asian markets ended lower. The Shanghai Composite (SHCOMP) tumbled 2.7%, the Hang Seng (HSI) in Hong Kong shed 0.8% and Japan's Nikkei (N225) declined 0.7%.

Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury moved up slightly, pushing the yield down to 2.18% from 2.19% late Tuesday.

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Market Update

4:30 pm : A flat start gave way to a steady descent that had the stock market positioned for its poorest performance in three weeks, but some late buying helped stocks halve their losses.

Without any leadership or positive catalysts to help stocks extend their multi-year highs, many participants opted to pare risk and pocket profits. The effort gained momentum and had the S&P 500 down about 1% before the decline steadied.

Natural resource plays were hit the hardest. Their drop came in close connection with lower commodity prices. At their session lows both the Energy sector and the Materials sector were flirting with losses of 2%. The stock market's effort to trim losses late in the day helped them limit their losses to 1.2% and 1.5%, respectively.

Oil was under sharp pressure all session, such that the energy component settled with a 1.9% loss at $105.40 per barrel. A bigger-than-expected build in weekly oil inventory numbers reflected renewed concerns about softer demand. The rest of the commodity complex was weak, too, such that the CRB Index fell 1.3% for its worst single-session slide in three weeks.

Financials were integral in the stock market's late upturn; no other sector was able to fully overcome selling pressure and settle in positive territory. Collectively, Financials scored a 0.4% gain.

Bank stocks were source of strength. Their resilience in the face of broad market weakness resulted in a 0.9% gain for the KBW Bank Index. Investment banking and brokerage outfit Goldman Sachs (GS 126.36, +0.03) was able to work its way to the flat line after wrestling with a sizable loss that came despite the firm's decision to restructure its Board. The move is widely regarded as a bow to investors amid negative publicity pertaining to the firm's culture.

Only a handful of earnings announcements were made ahead of the open, but none of them had any significant influence over market sentiment. Although the line-up for tomorrow will be limited, the latest numbers from Best Buy (BBY 26.62, -0.31) will be posted ahead of the open.

The dollar attracted only modest buying interest today, but even that faded so that the Dollar Index was up about 0.1% by day's end. The Japanese yen seemed to benefit more from those who wanted safety; as of the closing bell the dollar-yen exchange rate was down nearly 0.5% to 82.77 yen per dollar. Also in the mix was a weakened sterling pound, which fell to a 0.4% loss against the greenback after it had set a fractionally improved multi-month high in the prior session. Its move lower followed news that the United Kingdom revised data downward to show that its economy contracted by 0.3% during the fourth quarter. On a related note, the final reading on U.S. fourth quarter GDP will be released tomorrow morning at 8:30 AM ET.

The only dose of domestic data released today was the latest in durable goods orders. Overall orders increased by 2.2% during February, but that is actually a slower pace than the 2.8% increase that had been expected, on average, among economists polled by Briefing.com. Prior month orders data were revised slightly higher to reflect a 3.6% decline. Excluding transportation items, durable goods orders were up 1.6% in February. That is a stronger clip than the 1.0% increase that had been generally expected among economists polled by Briefing.com, but still relatively underwhelming when compared to loftier estimates that were widely issued. Nonetheless, the latest figure marks an improvement from the prior month decline of 3.0%.

Advancing Sectors: Financials +0.4%
Declining Sectors: Tech -0.2%, Consumer Staples -0.2%, Health Care -0.3%, Utilities -0.8%, Consumer Discretionary -0.9%, Telecom -1.0%, Industrials -1.0%, Energy -1.2%, Materials -1.5%DJ30 -71.52 NASDAQ -15.39 NQ100 -0.4% R2K -0.7% SP400 -0.6% SP500 -6.98 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 887/1.75 bln/1636 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1122/817 mln/1901

3:30 pm : Pronounced selling pressure against commodities droped the CRB Index for a 1.3% loss, its worst single-session slide in three weeks.

A sell-off minutes before floor trade opened pushed crude oil deeper into negative territory. News that weekly inventories had a build of 7.1 million barrels when a build of 2.7 million barrels was anticipated did not move crude significantly, although it did reflect concerns about demand. For most of the day crude's price chopped around $105.00, but ultimately it settled with a 1.9% loss at $105.40 per barrel.

Natural gas opened pit trade at $2.26 per MMBtu, its session low, and spent the day inching higher. It broke into positive territory about an hour before the close of pit trade, but could not sustain the gain. Instead, the energy component closed its floor session with a 0.9% loss at $2.28 per MMBtu.

Precious metals also began floor trade in the red, but extended their losses as the dollar gained ground. Gold touched a session low of $1654.00 per ounce and silver a session low of $31.76 per ounce minutes before pit action closed, but they settled with a 1.6% loss at $1657.30 per ounce and a 2.3% loss at $31.85 per ounce, respectively.DJ30 -94.33 NASDAQ -20.07 SP500 -10.36 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 785/1.32 bln/1685 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1020/485 mln/1990

3:00 pm : Only an hour remains in today's session. Although stocks are trying to trim losses, the S&P 500 remains positioned for its worst single-session loss in three weeks.

Looking ahead, Mosaic (MOS 57.92, -0.66) reports its latest quarterly results after the close. Tomorrow morning brings Best Buy (BBY 26.72, -0.21).

Weekly initial jobless claims data are due at 8:30 AM ET tomorrow morning. That's also when the final reading on fourth quarter GDP will be released. DJ30 -86.79 NASDAQ -17.57 SP500 -9.65 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 680/1.23 bln/1775 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 885/450 mln/2115

2:30 pm : Stocks recently set new session lows, but only by a modest degree. They have since worked to recover losses that stemmed from that slip.

Although stocks are on pace for a sizable loss, which would mark its second straight decline, the stock market is still positive for the week. The positive posture for the week is owed to the heady move made on Monday. That 1.4% spike was the stock market's best single-session performance in almost two weeks. DJ30 -109.36 NASDAQ -28.66 SP500 -13.08 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 660/1.16 bln/1805 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 855/420 mln/2135

2:00 pm : Persistent pressure has stocks stuck at session lows. Despite the breadth and scope of losses, bank stocks are actually displaying strength. Their resilience has the KBW Bank Index up nearly 0.3% for the day. However, investment banking and brokerage outfit Goldman Sachs (GS 124.89, -1.44) is down, despite the firm's announcement that it will restructure its Board. That move is widely regarded as a bow to investors, many of whom have been unsettled by negative publicity pertaining to the firm's culture.DJ30 -102.43 NASDAQ -28.16 SP500 -12.45 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 655/1.05 bln/1790 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 860/380 mln/2115

1:30 pm : Treasuries continue to slog along. Little reaction has been made to results from an auction of 5-year Notes that were released at 1:00 PM ET. The auction drew a bid-to-cover of 2.85, dollar demand of $99.9 billion and an indirect bidder participation rate of 41.9%. For comparison, the prior auction drew a bid-to-cover of 2.89, dollar demand of $101.2 billion, and an indirect bidder rate of 41.8%, while an average of the last six sales results in a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.00, dollar demand of $105.1 billion, and an indirect bidder rate of 46.0%.DJ30 -96.30 NASDAQ -27.49 SP500 -12.65 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 670/985 mln/1770 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 855/355 mln/2110

1:00 pm : Action was mostly mixed this morning, but a lack of positive leadership has allowed stocks to descend to sizable losses.

The tepid tone to premarket trade came amid moderate weakness abroad, along with news that overall durable goods orders increased by 2.2% in February and an even softer 1.6% when excluding transportation items. Many economists had expected stronger growth.

Without any directional cues in the early going, stocks stayed near the neutral line. However, without anything to drive stocks to new heights -- just yesterday morning the S&P 500 set an incrementally improved multi-year high -- participants have been compelled to pocket profits.

Selling interest has been especially pronounced among natural resource plays. The action has exacerbated weakness among commodities, which are being clipped in response to concerns about softer demand. With the CRB Index down 1.2% and oil off by 2.1% at $105.05 per barrel following a bearish inventory report, both the Energy sector and the Materials sector are down 1.9%.

Tech and Financials, arguably the two most influential sectors in broad market trade, attempted to provide some support through mid-morning trade, but they have since succumbed to the efforts of sellers. That said, the pair has managed to limit losses to 0.5%, which isn't much worse than the 0.3% loss collectively displayed by Consumer Staples. Consumer Staples currently make up the best performing sector.

The dollar has attracted only a modest bid. It is currently up 0.2% against a collection of competing currencies. The sterling pound is under considerable pressure, though; it was last quoted with a 0.6% loss at $1.59 following news that the United Kingdom reported downwardly revised data that showed its economy contracted by 0.3% during the fourth quarter.

Treasuries have had a quiet day with the 10-year Note dancing along the neutral line. However, action could heat up with the imminent release of results from an auction of 5-year Notes. DJ30 -85.14 NASDAQ -24.46 SP500 -11.52 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 670/895 mln/1750 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 845/325 mln/2105

12:30 pm : Treasuries continue to trade in lackluster fashion. The tepid tone precedes results from an auction of 5-year Notes at the top of the hour. The yield on the 5-year Note currently stands at 1.02%, while the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note stands at 2.18%. Yesterday, Treasuries traded higher in response to strong demand at an offering of 2-year Notes.DJ30 -85.37 NASDAQ -24.55 SP500 -11.30 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 665/812 mln/1750 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 820/290 mln/2125

12:00 pm : Another wave of selling has sunk stocks to new session lows. Weakness is becoming increasingly widespread with all 10 sectors in negative territory and more than half of them wrestling with losses of nearly 1% or more.

The dollar is starting to attract some safety seekers, who have bid it up to a session high that makes for a 0.3% gain against a basket of major foreign currencies. The yen is also benefiting from those looking to reduce risk. It was last quoted at 82.72 yen per dollar, down about 0.5% for the day. DJ30 -90.89 NASDAQ -26.92 SP500 -12.21 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 725/690 mln/1655 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 885/249 mln/2015

11:30 am : Stocks have stabilized since sliding into negative territory, but the retreat has further stirred volatility, such that the Volatility Index is up almost another 4% after it climbed in excess of 9% during trade yesterday.

Despite weakness among stocks and increased expectations for volatility, Treasuries continue to plod along. That's kept the 10-year Note near the neutral line. DJ30 -42.26 NASDAQ -11.25 SP500 -6.54 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 825/295 mln/1500 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1015/215 mln/1855

11:00 am : The major equity averages recently drifted down to session lows. While overall losses remain only modest, natural resource plays are under pronounced pressure.

The Energy sector and Materials sector are both down 1.3%, which is worse than what any other sector has suffered today. Their weakness comes in close connection with selling among commodities and other basic materials as concerns about demand become revived.

Tech and Financials stand as the only two sectors still in positive territory. Their gains stand at only 0.1%, though. DJ30 -32.05 NASDAQ -7.17 SP500 -4.83 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 820/465 mln/1475 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1025/175 mln/1820

10:35 am : Concerns about demand have stoked a concerted selling effort that has kept many commodities in the red with marked losses. As a result of their weakness, the CRB Index is down 0.9%.

Oil prices are currently off by 2.2% at a session low of $104.95 per barrel as traders react to the latest weekly inventory report, which featured a build of 7.1 million barrels when a build of 2.7 million barrels had been widely anticipated. Prior to the release of inventory data crude oil futures prices were down about 2%.

Natural gas prices remain in a downtrend that has the energy component trading with a 1.1% loss at $2.27 per MMBtu.

Precious metals are also being clipped, such that gold is now at $1674.40 per ounce and silver is at $32.34 per ounce. That makes for losses of 0.6% and 0.9%, respectively. DJ30 -19.07 NASDAQ +0.14 SP500 -2.62 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1125/308 mln/1090 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1300/125 mln/1490

10:00 am : Early action remains choppy as stocks attempt to establish a clear direction of trade. Action in the prior session was listless and choppy until a late flurry of selling left stocks to slide into the close and settle at session lows.

Treasuries still haven't attracted any real buying interest. That has the benchmark 10-year Note mired in negative territory with a slight loss. As a result, its yield is at 2.20% after slipping below that level yesterday. DJ30 +4.73 NASDAQ +6.91 SP500 -0.26 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 935/124 mln/1140 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1110/65 mln/1540

09:45 am : Energy stocks have already fallen to an early loss of 0.7%, which follows the near 1% loss suffered in the prior session. Pressure comes in conjunction with a sharp 2.0% drop in oil prices to $105.23 per barrel. Weekly oil inventory numbers will be released later this morning -- 10:30 AM ET.

Although their gain is modest in size, Tech stocks continue to trade with strength. After it was one of only a few sectors to settle the prior session in positive territory the sector is up 0.3% today. That is helping to keep the tech-rich Nasdaq out of negative territory. DJ30 -13.77 NASDAQ +1.78 SP500 -2.44 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -1.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +0.50. Broad market stock futures point to a narrowly lower open after market participants responded in a mildly negative manner to the latest durable goods orders data, which was mixed relative to expectations. The tone of trade ahead of the open has also been tainted by moderate weakness among Europe's major bourses after the United Kingdom reported downwardly revised data that showed its economy contracted by 0.3% during the fourth quarter. By extension the sterling pound is under pressure; it has imbued the euro, which is down fractionally against the greenback.

Meanwhile, commodities are being cut down in response to renewed concerns about demand. In turn, the CRB Index is down 0.9%, while oil prices drop to $105.55 per barrel for a 1.7% loss ahead of weekly inventory numbers at 10:30 AM ET.

Treasuries haven't exactly attracted the support of buyers, but results from an auction of 5-year Notes will be in play when they are released at 1:00 PM ET.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +2.80. Commodities are under pronounced pressure this morning, resulting in a 0.6% loss for the CRB Index. Concerns about softer demand are weighing on action.

Among the CRB's more commonly quoted constituents, crude oil prices are down 1.2% to $106.08 per barrel in early pit trade. Trade could turn volatile with the release of weekly oil inventory numbers at 10:30 AM ET. Natural gas prices have extended their downtrend by falling another 1.3% to $2.265 per MMBtu.

Precious metals aren't doing much better. Specifically, gold prices are off by 0.7% at $1673.00 per ounce, while silver sits at $32.32 per ounce with a 0.9% loss.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +2.80. Broad market futures are essentially flat following the latest dose of data. Overall orders of durable goods increased by 2.2% during February, but that is actually a slower pace than the 2.8% increase that had been expected, on average, among economists polled by Briefing.com. Prior month orders data were revised slightly higher to reflect a 3.6% decline.

Excluding transportation items, durable goods orders were up 1.6% in February. That is a stronger clip than the 1.0% increase that had been generally expected among economists polled by Briefing.com, but other financial media outlets are reporting that loftier estimates are prevalent. Either way, the latest figure marks an improvement from the prior month decline of 3.0%.

As an aside, no other economic reports of consequence are scheduled for today.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +1.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +2.80. Broad market futures are up narrowly over fair value. The dollar is also up narrowly today. As for the sterling pound, it is down about 0.4% to $1.59 following news that GDP for the UK contracted by 0.3% during the fourth quarter. The prior estimate pointed to a 0.2% decline in activity.

Corporate news is light, although Goldman Sachs (GS 126.57, +0.24) has garnered some attention following its decision to restructure its Board. Note: ticker quotes reflect premarket prices.

The bottom of the hour brings the latest monthly durable goods orders numbers. Today's calendar also features weekly oil inventory numbers at 10:30 AM ET. Crude oil futures prices are currently down 1.1% to $106.15 per barrel in electronic trade. Results from an auction of 5-year Notes will be released at 1:00 PM ET.

06:26 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +1.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.00.

06:26 am : Nikkei...10182.57...-72.60...-0.70%. Hang Seng...20885.42...-161.50...-0.80%.

06:26 am : FTSE...5855.15...-14.40...-0.30%. DAX...7053.48...-25.40...-0.40%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader, http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader and http://chart.ly/users/wrbtrader

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