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 Post subject: March 27th Tuesday 2012 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +8.60
PostPosted: Tue Mar 27, 2012 7:56 pm 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)

Attachment:
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click on the above image to view today's performance verification

Price Action Trade Performance for Today: +8.60 points or $860 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, all trades were posted real-time in the free #FuturesTrades chat room. You can read today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs for details (e.g. time, price, contract size) about each one of my trades from entry to exit along with price action commentary as the trade traversed in comparison to what's shown in the above image...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=102&t=1178.

To join our free chat room...registration instructions located at a different forum @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=630

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my price action trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our price action trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=150&t=1403

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Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/IMF actions or any important global economic events that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables (key market events) causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that results in swing points and strong continuation price actions. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for my technical analysis. Just as important, these summaries becomes my archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past...something I can not get from my broker statements alone.

Stock Rally Runs Out Of Gas

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click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- U.S. stocks ended a quiet session lower Tuesday as investors found little reason to push the market up given the strength of the recent rally.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) fell 44 points, or 0.3%, to end at 13,198. The S&P 500 (SPX) lost 4 points, or 0.3%, to 1,412. The Nasdaq (COMP) edged down 2 points, or 0.1%, to 3,120.

Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) weighed on the Dow after the stock was downgraded by Baird Equity Research. Pfizer (PFE, Fortune 500) led gainers on the index as the Supreme Court took up the 2010 health care reform law.

Stocks rallied Monday, after Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke's comments on the job market gave investors more reason to believe the central bank will keep interest rates low. But the tone was cautious Tuesday as investors digested mixed reports on home prices and consumer confidence.

"The market had a significant run," said Art Hogan, managing director at Lazard Capital Markets. "It's not unusual to see a mixed reaction as investors await the next catalyst."

Overall, stocks have rallied this year on improving economic data and easing concerns about the debt crisis in Europe. In addition, investors say the market has been supported by the Federal Reserve's monetary policies.

So far this year, the Dow has climbed 8%, the S&P 500 has gained nearly 13% and the Nasdaq is up more than 20%.

* Regional banks ready to rally

The gains have drawn some investors who had been skeptical of the rally off the sidelines, said Carmine Grigoli, chief investment strategist at Mizuho Securities USA.

"We're at the stage now where investors are recognizing that this advance is for real," said Grigoli. "The thing investors are grappling with now is whether to pursue this advance or wait for pull back to add to positions."

Traders said stocks were also being driven by so-called portfolio rebalancing, when institutional investors buy winners and sell losers ahead of quarterly statements to clients.

The trend boosted some of the quarter's best performing stocks, including Apple (AAPL, Fortune 500), Sears Holdings (SHLD, Fortune 500) and Micron Technology (MU, Fortune 500).

Economy: Home prices in 20 major cities fell to the lowest level since 2002, according to S&P/Case-Shiller.

The index for January dropped 3.8% year-over-year, after a 4.1% drop in the month prior.

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index for March eased to 70.2 from 71.6 in February.

In a lecture about the Fed's emergency efforts during the financial crisis, Bernanke said the bailouts of Bear Stearns and AIG were "distasteful" but still necessary.

Meanwhile, the Fed was "helpless" when it came to saving Lehman Brothers, Bernanke told students at George Washington University.

* Video - Will the Dow soon hit a new all-time high?

Companies: Lennar (LEN) posted earnings of 8 cents per share on revenue of $725 million, figures that topped analysts' estimates. The homebuilder said it has seen an uptick in sales and new orders in the first quarter.

Shares of major homebuilders were among the best performers in early trading. Pulte (PHM, Fortune 500), DR Horton (DHI, Fortune 500) and KB Home (KBH) were all higher.

Healthcare companies were under pressure after Supreme Court justices offered sharply divided views on the controversial individual mandate provision at the heart of the 2010 federal health care reform law. Tenet Healthcare (THC, Fortune 500), HCA Holdings (HCA, Fortune 500), United Health Services (UHS, Fortune 500) were all lower.

Drug-store chain Walgreen (WAG, Fortune 500) reported earnings of 78 cents a share on $18.7 billion in revenue, slightly better than analyst estimates.

* Why Netflix's Facebook app would be illegal

Shares of private education provider Apollo Group (APOL, Fortune 500) dropped despite reporting earnings late Monday that beat Wall Street estimates.

Morgan Stanley's (MS, Fortune 500) former CEO John Mack is joining the private equity firm Kohlberg Kravis Roberts as a senior advisor, the firm announced Tuesday.

World markets: European stocks closed mostly lower. Britain's FTSE 100 (UKX) eased 0.5%, the DAX (DAX) in Germany ended flat and France's CAC 40 (CAC40) fell 0.9%.

Asian markets ended mixed. The Shanghai Composite (SHCOMP) shed 0.2%, the Hang Seng (HSI) in Hong Kong gained 1.8% and Japan's Nikkei (N225) jumped 2.4%.

Currencies and commodities: The dollar strengthened against the euro, the British pound and the Japanese yen.

Oil for May delivery rose 30 cents to settle at $107.33 per barrel a barrel.

Gold futures for April delivery fell 7 cents to end at $1,684.90 an ounce.

Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury increased, pushing the yield down to 2.19% from 2.25% late Monday.

Image

Market Update

4:30 pm : Stocks spent most of the session slogging along the flat line in a sideways chop, but a late bout of selling dropped the major equity averages into the red and left them to settle at session lows.

An absence of headlines and trading catalysts made for a rather mixed open, but the broad market did manage to muster enough of a gain to set an incrementally improved multi-year high before backing down amid a lack of leadership. Market participants opted to apply pressure to stocks with the release of the Conference Board's latest Consumer Confidence Index, which declined to 70.2 from an upwardly revised 71.6 for the prior month, even though the decline was on the order of what had been widely anticipated.

Selling failed to gain momentum, but participants weren't willing to do anything more than provide enough support to keep stocks near the neutral line, or at least until the final hour.

Strength among Tech stocks had helped the Nasdaq stay in positive territory for nearly the entire session. However, it broke below the neutral line in the final minutes of trade as the Tech sector traded lower alongside the rest of the market. Tech still eked out a 0.1% gain so that the sector stands alongside Utilities and Health Care as the only sector to score a gain. Utilities and Health Care booked gains of 0.4% and 0.3%, respectively.

Resuming the weak price action displayed during trade last week, Energy stocks were a drag today. The sector suffered a 0.9% loss, which came even though oil prices were able to overcome a mid-session slip to settle with a 0.2% gain just above $107.30 per barrel.

Walgreen Co. (WAG 34.80, +0.43) was a strong performer in the face of broad market listlessness. The stock scored its gain on the back of an upside earnings surprise, which is also what helped Lennar (LEN 27.63, +1.23). Education services provider Apollo Group (APOL 39.54, -3.66) also announced better-than-expected earnings, but the company's cautious outlook was enough of a reason for traders to cut down the stock.

The stock market's late slide stoked volatility expectations, such that the Volatility Index spiked more than 9% to close out the day comfortably above 15.

That helped Treasuries reclaim some of their gains and settle near session highs. Treasuries were treated positively following results from an auction of 2-year Notes. The offering drew a bid-to-cover of 3.69, dollar demand of $129.2 billion, an indirect bidder rate of 34.1%. For comparison, the prior auction drew a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.54, dollar demand of $123.9 billion, and an indirect bidder rate of 35.7%, while an average of the past six auctions drew a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.70, dollar demand of $129.6 billion, and an indirect bidder rate of 34.7%.

The dollar ended the day with a gain of about 0.2% after it had spent the better part of the session plodding along near the unchanged mark. Most of the greenback's gain is owed to a downturn by the euro, which settled the session at about $1.332.

Advancing Sectors: Utilities +0.4%, Health Care +0.3%, Tech +0.1%
Declining Sectors: Materials -0.2%, Consumer Staples -0.2%, Consumer Discretionary -0.2%, Industrials -0.2%, Energy -0.9%, Telecom -0.9%, Financials -1.0%DJ30 -43.90 NASDAQ -2.22 NQ100 +0.2% R2K -0.7% SP400 -0.4% SP500 -3.99 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 945/1.65 bln/1581 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1243/730 mln/1736

3:30 pm : Crude oil opened pit trade on a strong note, running to a session high of $107.75 per barrel. However, the energy component began to sell-off shortly before headlines suggested that the release of an oil reserve is being considered. Crude set a session low of $106.52 per barrel before it began to steadily recover losses. It settled pit trade with a mild gain of 0.2% at $107.33 per barrel.

Natural gas prices took a dive in the last hour of electronic trade to then spend all of pit trade in negative territory. Prices closed with a 0.9% loss at $2.30 per MMBtu.

After reaching respective highs of $1696.90 per ounce and $33.13 per ounce in morning trade, gold and silver gave up all of their gains and slid into negative territory. Gold settled its floor session with a loss of just 0.1% at $1684.80 per ounce, and silver settled at $32.67 per ounce, or 0.3% lower.DJ30 -16.12 NASDAQ +5.12 SP500 -1.15 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1240/1.24 bln/1270 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1490/435 mln/1455

3:00 pm : Stocks are flat as they enter the final hour of the session. The listless, lackluster action has been an all-day theme.

The lack of action is reflective of the limited headlines of the day. Amid so few catalysts for trade, many have opted to remain on the sidelines. That has suppressed share volume, which has barely reached 400 million on the NYSE. DJ30 -3.25 NASDAQ +8.98 SP500 +0.44 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1230/1.14 bln/1265 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1465/405 mln/1475

2:30 pm : The Nasdaq recently notched a new session high, but its overall gain remains only modest in size. Nonetheless, the move comes amid help from Tech stocks. Support for Tech has the sector sporting a 0.5% gain; only Utilities are trading with a similar gain.DJ30 +1.36 NASDAQ +10.91 SP500 +1.33 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1245/1.06 bln/1230 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1490/380 mln/1440

2:00 pm : The stock market continues to chop along in a tight trading range. Meanwhile, Telecom stocks have drifted down to a new session low, resulting in a 0.7% loss for the sector. In contrast, the similarly defensive-oriented Utilities sector has managed to muster a 0.6% gain. The mixed action is consistent with the trade that has transpired since the opening bell.DJ30 -5.86 NASDAQ +9.01 SP500 +0.15 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1150/985 mln/1310 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1400/350 mln/1525

1:30 pm : Treasuries have added to their gains following results from an auction of 2-year Notes that drew a bid-to-cover of 3.69, dollar demand of $129.2 billion, an indirect bidder rate of 34.1%. For comparison, the prior auction drew a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.54, dollar demand of $123.9 billion, and an indirect bidder rate of 35.7%, while an average of the past six auctions drew a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.70, dollar demand of $129.6 billion, and an indirect bidder rate of 34.7%.DJ30 -9.61 NASDAQ +5.75 SP500 -0.64 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1160/910 mln/1305 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1405/320 mln/1500

1:00 pm : The broad market made a modest move to an incrementally improved multi-year high, but listless action has left stocks to remain near the neutral line as they chop along with little direction.

Tech stocks are up a solid 0.4% today, but the largest sector by market cap has been unable to inspire meaningful interest in the rest of the market. Although Tech has helped the Nasdaq move narrowly higher, both the Dow and S&P 500 have been bouncing along the neutral line for the better part of the day.

Data has been relatively underwhelming in that the latest Consumer Confidence Index fell on the order of what had been widely expected. Germany's latest reading on consumer confidence also turned lower from the prior month.

Energy stocks have been a drag on trade. The sector has drifted down to a 0.7% loss, although oil prices have generally oscillated along the flat line for the second straight session. Oil was last quoted with a fractional loss at $106.95 per barrel.

Despite the generally quiet tone of trade, the Volatility Index is up more than 5% today. It dropped sharply during the stock market's rally in the prior session.

The lack of action among stocks has been mirrored by currencies, such that the dollar has spent its day mired near the neutral line. Neither the euro, sterling pound, nor the Japanese yen have attempted any sort of dramatic move. DJ30 +2.73 NASDAQ +7.47 SP500 +0.63 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1130/825 mln/1325 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1440/290 mln/1450

12:30 pm : A recent attempt by stocks to trade higher failed to attract enough followers for the move to gain momentum. That has left the broad market holding on to an incremental gain.

Amid the stock market's listlessness, Treasuries have ticked higher so that the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note is back near 2.20%. The yield on the 2-year Note has hardly moved at all; it remains near 0.35%. The top of the hour brings results from an auction of 2-year Notes. DJ30 +2.42 NASDAQ +6.61 SP500 +0.56 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1130/745 mln/1295 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1485/265 mln/1395

12:00 pm : The major equity averages have made an upward push in recent trade. The effort has put the Dow and S&P 500 back in positive territory, although their gains are only narrow in scope.

Utilities are looking strong this session. The sector has worked its way up to a 0.5% gain, which is better than what any other sector is doing. Utilities remain the poorest performing sector of 2012, however. DJ30 +8.97 NASDAQ +6.82 SP500 +1.30 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1070/675 mln/1310 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1390/240 mln/1465

11:30 am : The Dow and the S&P 500 are at the flat line, but the Nasdaq has managed to maintain a narrow gain. Although its advance today isn't much, the Nasdaq has been able to hold a lead over its counterparts for the second straight session. Large-cap biotech plays like Biogen Idec (BIIB 127.10, +1.30) and Amgen (AMGN 68.22, +0.70) continue to drive the action.DJ30 -4.01 NASDAQ +4.95 SP500 -0.20 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1065/565 mln/1265 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1390/200 mln/1425

11:00 am : Making for a rather dull morning of trade, stocks continue to chop along listlessly in mixed fashion -- only half of the 10 major sectors are in positive territory. Despite the lack of direction, the Volatility Index is up more than 4% so that it is back near 15 after dropping sharply during the stock market's rally yesterday.DJ30 -8.40 NASDAQ +4.70 SP500 -0.10 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1115/470 mln/1195 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1410/165 mln/1365

10:30 am : Stocks continue to chop along in mixed fashion. Meanwhile, commodities are generally trading higher today, resulting in a 0.3% gain for the CRB Index.

Among the CRB's more commonly tracked constituents, gold prices are up 0.3% to $1690 per ounce. The move comes on top of a spike well in excess of 1% in the prior session. Silver prices also spiked well in excess of 1% yesterday. Today the precious metal is up another 0.7% to $32.97 per ounce. Both metals currently trade narrowly below their session highs, however.

Oil prices have overcome an early slip to trade at $107.45 per barrel for a 0.4% gain. Natural gas prices remain mired in negative territory with a 1.6% loss at $2.28 per MMBtu after the energy component suffered a loss on the order of 2% in the prior session. DJ30 -8.51 NASDAQ +5.72 SP500 +0.30 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1075/322 mln/1150 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1345/120 mln/1380

10:00 am : The Consumer Confidence Index for March from the Conference Board declined to 70.2 from an upwardly revised 71.6 in the prior month. Although that wasn't too surprising, given that economists polled by Briefing.com had generally expected a reading of 70.1 for March, market participants enganged in a flurry of selling that undercut the major equity averages.DJ30 -8.32 NASDAQ +1.95 SP500 +0.37 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1095/135 mln/1035 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1385/70 mln/1230

09:45 am : The major equity averages are trading only narrowly above the neutral line amid mixed underlying action.

Health Care stocks outperformed in the prior session by climbing nearly 2% amid strength in health care facilities, managed care plays, and biotech issues. The pack is back on the climb today, driving the Health Care sector up another 0.5%.

In contrast, Energy stocks are under pressure, such that the sector has already shed 0.4%. That loss comes after the sector had lagged broad market action in the prior session. DJ30 +11.20 NASDAQ +5.27 SP500 +2.03 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +3.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.50. Stock futures remain near the flat line as an absence of new catalysts leave market participants to rest on the strong gains booked in the prior session. After overnight action in Asia took both Japan's Nikkei and Hong Kong's Hang Seng sharply higher -- but left China's Shanghai Composite behind -- Germany's DAX is up solidly while other bourses in the region trade in mixed fashion. Germany's gains come despite a slip in the country's latest consumer confidence reading.

The latest U.S. Consumer Confidence Index from the Conference Board is due at 10:00 AM ET. Already reported was an in-line 3.8% decline in the CaseShiller Housing Price Index for January.

The dollar has spent the morning mired near the neutral line, but precious metals have been able to add to their prior session gains. Oil prices are seeing only limited movement, as they did in the prior session.

Treasuries have benefited from a slight bid this morning. Attention will turn to results from an auction of 2-year Notes at 1:00 PM ET.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +2.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.80. Precious metals are building on their prior session bounce. Specifically, gold prices are up 0.4% to $1692.50 per ounce after the yellow metal gained 1.4% in the prior session. As for silver, it is at $33.02 per ounce, sporting a 0.8% gain after it advanced 1.6% yesterday.

Energy components crude oil and natural gas have hardly impressed. Crude oil futures contract prices are currently down 0.2% to $107.25 per barrel, effectively offsetting the gain that it booked in pit trade yesterday. Natural gas has extended its prior session slide so that it is down 1.2% to $2.29 per MMBtu after it already fell 2.1% on Monday.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +3.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.00. Trade in Europe is rather mixed at the moment. Germany's DAX is currently up 0.5% amid leadership from Metro AG, Commerzbank, and Deutsche Bank (DB 52.50, +0.34). Siemens (SI 102.08, -0.59) is weak once again. Germany reported that its latest Consumer Confidence Survey slipped from the prior month after its business climate reading had reached a multi-month high only yesterday. Britain's FTSE is presently off by a mere 0.1% as banking plays Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS 9.29, +0.26), Barclays (BCS 16.37, +0.13), Standard Chartered, and HSBC (HBC 45.61, +0.70) provide support, but Compass Group, BP Plc (BP 45.76, -0.47), and Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A 71.32, -0.85) trade lower. France's CAC is currently off by 0.2% as weakness in Credit Agricole and Societe Generale offsets strength in Alcatel-Lucent (ALU 2.43, +0.00) and NicOx. France's latest Consumer Confidence Index was impressive in its improvement to 87 from 82 in the prior month.

Overnight action in saw Japan's Nikkei jump 2.4% to a multi-month high, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng ascended 1.8%. However, China's Shanghai Composite closed with a 0.1% loss. The country reported that industrial profits fell 5.2% in February after a 25.4% spike in the same period one year ago. Aluminum of China was a heavy drag on trade. Deluxe China and Agricultural Bank of China also weighed on action again. However, China Minsheng Banking displayed modest strength, while Zijin Mining and Shandong Gold provided support of their own. Various brewers, vintners, distillers, and spirits players were hurt by a mandate that will limit the availability of certain alcohols. Japan's Nikkei rallied in broad-based fashion, but Fukuoka Financial and Sumitomo Metal staged the strongest gains. Out of more than 200 constituents, only OKI Electric, Tokyo Dome, West Japan Rail, and Takeda Pharmaceutical logged losses. As for the Hang Seng, it was led higher by the likes of Bank of China, China Construction Bank, Agricultural Bank of China, and Industrial & Commercial Bank of China after many Financial issues had lagged in the prior session. Despite renewed interest in Financials and its strength on the Shanghai Composite, China Minsheng Banking was actually fell well in excess of 1%.

Note: ticker quotes reflect US premarket prices.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +2.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.30. Stocks scored strong gains yesterday, but enthusiasm has since waned, leaving stock futures to trade around the flat line this morning. Action abroad has been generally upbeat, though.

In focus this morning are quarterly results from Walgreens (WAG 35.01, +0.64) and Lennar (LEN 27.35, +0.95), both of which announced earnings that exceeded what Wall Street had expected. Apollo Group (APOL 40.69, -2.51) also reported an upside surprise, but market participants have responded negatively to cautious comments from management. Note: ticker quotes reflect premarket prices.

As for the economic calendar, Tuesday offers the latest CaseShiller Housing Price Index at 9:00 AM ET then monthly Consumer Confidence at 10:00 AM ET.

Separately, results from an auction of 2-year Notes will be released at 1:00 PM ET.

06:20 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +4.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.50.

06:20 am : Nikkei...10255.15...+236.90...+2.40%. Hang Seng...21046.91...+378.10...+1.80%.

06:20 am : FTSE...5914.04...+11.30...+0.20%. DAX...7122.20...+43.00...+0.60%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader, http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader and http://chart.ly/users/wrbtrader

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