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 Post subject: March 23rd Friday 2012 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +12.10
PostPosted: Fri Mar 23, 2012 11:59 pm 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)

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click on the above image to view today's performance verification

Price Action Trade Performance for Today: +12.10 points or $1210 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, all trades were posted real-time in the free #FuturesTrades chat room. You can read today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs for details (e.g. time, price, contract size) about each one of my trades from entry to exit along with price action commentary as the trade traversed in comparison to what's shown in the above image...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=102&t=1176.

To join our free chat room...registration instructions located at a different forum @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=630

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my price action trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our price action trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=150&t=1403

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Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/IMF actions or any important global economic events that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables (key market events) causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that results in swing points and strong continuation price actions. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for my technical analysis. Just as important, these summaries becomes my archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past...something I can not get from my broker statements alone.

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Market Update

4:30 pm : The stock market ended the week with a modest gain, but it still booked a weekly loss of 0.5%, which marks the first weekly decline for the S&P 500 in more than a month, and only the second in 12 weeks.

That hot streak took the S&P 500 to its highest level since mid-2008 earlier this week, but many opted to take profits in response to renewed concerns about global economic conditions. Questions about the health of China were stirred when leaders in the metals industry suggested that the country’s steel production is leveling off. Worries were further stoked later in the week by news that China’s PMI reading fell to a four-month low and indicated that activity is tightening.

PMI data from Europe indicated the same when it fell short of expectations. Both Fed Chairman Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Geithner testified on Europe's economic crisis this week, but neither made any riveting remark. As such, their comments did nothing to swing stocks or prompt a shift in sentiment.

Cyclical stocks encountered some concerted selling amid macro concerns. During the course of only three days the Energy sector fell more than 4%, although it advanced 1.0% on Friday. It shed 3.0% for the week. The action in the Energy sector was closely correlated with crude oil trade.

By settling at $106.86 per barrel oil prices gained 1.4% on Friday, but fell 0.2% for the week. Along the way the energy component probed a monthly low near $104.50 per barrel. Action early in the week took into account plans for China to implement another fuel price increase. Later in the week it was learned that a review of permit applications for the southern leg of the Keystone Pipeline will likely be expedited. On Friday headlines suggested that Iran could curtail its oil exports, but Saudi Arabia had already pledged to increase oil exports to the U.S.

Financial plays and bank stocks provided leadership at the start of this week, but the sector later wavered. On Friday the Financial sector advanced 0.9% so that it was flat for the week. Up 21% year to date, Financials are still the top performers into the first three months of 2012.

Tech is still close behind in terms of its first quarter performance; it is up 20% year to date. The largest sector by market weight has been led by the largest stock by market cap – Apple (AAPL 596.05, -3.29). Narrowly off of a record high north of $600, shares of AAPL are up nearly 50% this year. The company made headlines at the start of the week with news that it will pay a quarterly dividend of $2.65 per share starting in its fiscal fourth quarter of 2012, and also begin a $10 billion share repurchase program in fiscal 2013. Apple’s cash hoard currently stands at close to $100 billion.

Other notable corporate announcements this week include better-than-expected earnings and upside guidance from Accenture (ACN 64.88, +1.36). Nike (NKE 107.42, -3.57) announced an upside earnings surprise of its own, along with a double-digit annual percentage increase in futures orders. FedEx (FDX 92.38, -0.12), Discover Financial (DFS 33.83, +1.34), and Oracle (ORCL 28.55, -0.08) all announced upside earnings surprises this week. Tiffany & Co. (TIF 71.45, -1.03) reported earnings that came short of the consensus estimate, but the company made up for that failure by offering strong guidance.

Domestic economic data released this week was limited in scope.

Indicative of an improving jobs picture, the latest weekly initial jobless claims tally fell to a multi-year low of 348,000, which is less than the 355,000 initial jobless claims that had been expected, on average, among economists polled by Briefing.com.

Existing home sales hit an annualized pace of 4.59 million units in February, down from a rate of 4.63 million in the prior month. The slower pace came as little surprise since the consensus among economists polled by Briefing.com had called for a clip of 4.60 million units.

New home sales declined in February by 1.6% to an annualized rate of 313,000 units, which is less than the pace 323,000 units that had been broadly expected. Inventory levels remained at 150,000 for the second straight month, but months-of-supply increased to 5.8 from 5.7.

Housing starts hit an annualized rate of 698,000 units in February. That's down from the prior month's upwardly revised rate of 706,000 units. Economists had generally expected starts to remain near that rate. However, building permits improved in February to a rate of 717,000 from 682,000 in the prior month, besting the rate of 695,000 that had been generally anticipated.

Last week the dollar traded up to a near one-month high, but selling this week caused it to suffer a 0.6% weekly loss against a basket of major foreign currencies and settle narrowly beneath its 50-day moving average. The euro advanced 0.5% on Friday to $1.327. That helped feed a weekly gain of 0.7% against the greenback. The yen had perhaps the strongest finish to the week; it rallied roughly 1% on Thursday and again on Friday to reach its best level of the week. As of the close of trade on Friday the currency traded at 82.42 yen per dollar.

Treasuries experienced some whippy action this week. Early on the yield of the benchmark 10-year Note had flirted with 2.40% for a multi-month high, but by Friday it was down as low as 2.21%, which stands as its worst level in more than a week, before easing up to about 2.24% by the end of the trading day. DJ30 +34.59 NASDAQ +4.60 NQ100 -0.1% R2K +1.0% SP400 +0.6% SP500 +4.33 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1669/1.42 bln/829 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2123/741 mln/863

3:30 pm : Commodities closed higher today after a volatile week, but the CRB Index still suffered a 1% weekly loss.

Crude oil rallied sharply in its morning session, briefly breaking above $108.00 per barrel following a report that Iranian oil exports would drop by 300,000 barrels per day in March. However, the energy component quickly moved back down to chop around the $107 level, and ended with a 1.4% gain at $106.86 per barrel.

The advance came in contrast to crude’s activity in previous sessions. Just yesterday it tested a monthly low near $104.50 per barrel before booking a loss that left it down about 4% in only three days. Playing part in crude’s weakness earlier this week were concerns about the implications for global economic growth after China announced another increase for fuel prices in the country. Disappointing PMI data was released from both China and Europe. There was also word that Saudi Arabia will increase oil exports to the U.S., along with reports that a review of permit applications for the southern leg of the Keystone Pipeline will likely be expedited.

Natural gas hit a session high of $2.33 per MMBtu during pit trade, but lost momentum as the session progressed. That caused it to surrender its gains and close flat at $2.27 per MMBtu. Nat gas lost a total of 2.6% over the past week.

Moves in the metals space this week were mostly reflective of swings in the dollar. However, today’s pullback by the greenback provided gold with a boost to reclaim its weekly loss. The precious metal settled at $1662.50 per ounce, a 0.4% gain over last Friday’s closing price, despite setting a weekly low of $1627.50 per once only yesterday. Silver also trended higher today. The metal gained $0.86 in today’s pit trading to settle at $32.26 per ounce, but was down 1.1% week over week.DJ30 +43.97 NASDAQ +4.59 SP500 +5.33 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1530/1.06 bln/940 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2055/445 mln/895

3:00 pm : The stock market has slowly worked its way up to a solid gain, but the effort hasn't been enough to fully offset losses suffered earlier this week. As trade enters its final hour of Friday the S&P 500 is facing a weekly loss of about 0.4%. It has been six weeks since stocks last suffered a weekly decline. What's more, that particular weekly loss is the only one in the previous 11 weeks of trade.DJ30 +53.55 NASDAQ +7.20 SP500 +6.31 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1480/965 mln/965 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2015/412 mln/900

2:30 pm : Stocks have made a modest move higher in recent trade, breaking free from their recent trading range. The move has also lifted the Nasdaq into positive territory.

Energy and Materials are sporting the strongest gains today. Both sectors are up 1.1% at the moment. Financials, up 0.9%, are close behind. Telecom stocks are still at the other end of the spectrum. In fact, Telecom is the only sector still stuck in negative territory; it's down 0.5% for the day. DJ30 +46.58 NASDAQ +4.90 SP500 +5.35 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1375/890 mln/1035 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1945/380 mln/970

2:00 pm : Momentum behind the stock market's recent move higher has tapered off, leaving stocks to enter into a sideways drift. Although that preserves gains for the S&P 500 and the Dow, it has left the Nasdaq to dance along the neutral line.

With action slowing and so few catalysts for trade, share volume has been anemic. In fact, only 350 million shares have traded hands, thus far, on the NYSE. DJ30 +35.35 NASDAQ -1.49 SP500 +3.62 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1300/825 mln/1085 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1940/350 mln/970

1:30 pm : The stock market has stretched higher to reach ots best level of the day. Overall gains remain modest, though.

Despite the broad market's bounce, the Nasdaq has yet to push into positive territory. It has been weighed down by lackluster action among Tech stocks, which are mired near the neutral line. Heavyweight Apple (AAPL 597.06, -2.28) has hampered the sector as it trades back below $600 per share. DJ30 +48.44 NASDAQ -0.14 SP500 +5.21 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1215/765 mln/1170 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1855/325 mln/1030

1:00 pm : Stocks faltered this morning shortly after the release of some disappointing new home sales numbers, but newfound strength among Energy has helped lead the broader market back into positive territory. Financials are also contributing.

Energy stocks fell more than 4% during the course of the past three sessions, but they're finally getting some support today. The sector has run up to a 1.2% gain, which has been helped by higher oil prices. Oil was last quoted with a 1.7% gain at $107.15 per barrel after it had been near a monthly low of $104.50 per barrel only yesterday.

Other commodities are also on the climb after a punishment in the prior session. That has the CRB Index up 0.9% today. In the backdrop, the dollar is down about 0.5% against a basket of major foreign currencies.

Before it faltered alongside the broad market, Financials were the only sector in positive territory for a time this morning. They have since rebounded to trade with a 0.8% gain. Investment banks and brokerage outfits are leading the way.

Although the S&P 500 has made its way to a modest gain, it remains on pace for a modest weekly loss of about 0.5%. It has been six weeks since the stock market suffered any kind of a weekly decline. What's more, the weekly loss would be only the second in 12 weeks. DJ30 +43.33 NASDAQ -3.27 SP500 +4.23 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1100/695 mln/1245 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1700/295 mln/1170

12:30 pm : Weakness in shares of AT&T (T 31.50, -0.21) and Verizon (VZ 39.38, -0.28) have weighed on the Telecom sector today. Collectively, Telecom stocks are down 0.6%, which makes them the worst performing sector of the session. Telecom has also had an underwhelming first quarter in that the sector is up less than 2% year to date, but the broad market is up nearly 11% in 2012.DJ30 +30.16 NASDAQ -4.61 SP500 +2.62 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1140/625 mln/1200 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1735/270 mln/1110

12:00 pm : Stocks have added modestly to their recent move higher, but the Nasdaq remains in negative territory with a narrow loss. It has been weighed down by the likes of Dell (DELL 16.60, -0.42), Microsoft (MSFT 31.83, -0.17), and Yahoo! (YHOO 15.41, -0.07).DJ30 +41.25 NASDAQ -2.09 SP500 +3.67 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1105/545 mln/1180 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1690/230 mln/1140

11:30 am : After catching its breath at the flat line, the broad market has extended its bounce into positive territory so that it trades at a session high with a modest gain.

As a result of the stock market's newfound strength Treasuries have had their gains pared. That's caused the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note to move up incrementally from its weekly low. Still, the Note's yield is about 15 basis points below the multi-month high near 2.40% that was set earlier this week. DJ30 +33.34 NASDAQ -1.84 SP500 +3.23 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 945/475 mln/1310 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1415/200 mln/1375

11:00 am : Stocks have been working their way higher in recent trade. The effort has undone the broad market's loss so that it now trades at the flat line. The Nasdaq has been slower to slash its loss.

Energy stocks have rallied higher after a lackluster start. During the course of the three previous sessions the sector sank to a loss of roughly 4%, but it has bounded to a 0.8% gain today. Still, Energy is facing a weekly loss of about 3%, which is worse than what any other sector suffered this week.

Consumer Staples stocks have been this week's best performers. They're down narrowly at the moment, but for the week they are up about 0.3%. For added perspective, Consumer Staples have collectively climbed little more than 3% in 2012, but the broader market is up nearly 11% year to date. DJ30 +0.76 NASDAQ -8.57 SP500 -0.29 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 765/355 mln/1430 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1200/155 mln/1555

10:30 am : Commodities are on the climb after suffering sizable losses in the prior session. That has the CRB Index up 0.8% after a 1.2% decline yesterday.

Crude oil is putting on an impressive performance with help from recent reports stating that Iran could curtail its oil exports. The energy component was last quoted with a 1.6% gain at $107 per barrel, although it pushed past $108 per barrel earlier. Just yesterday it probed monthly lows near $104.50 per barrel.

Natural gas prices tumbled nearly 4% to set a lifetime closing low in the April contract. Prices are up nicely today, though; the commodity currently trades with a 1.7% gain at $2.41 per MMBtu.

Action among precious metals has been decidedly positive with gold prices gaining 1.2% to trade at $1661.40 per ounce, while silver sports a 2.4% gain at $32.09 per ounce. In the backdrop, the dollar has descended to a 0.4% loss against a collection of competing currencies, making the upward push by precious metals a little easier. DJ30 -16.25 NASDAQ -13.10 SP500 -2.89 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1040/125 mln/1675 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1040/125 mln/1675

10:00 am : Choppy trade recently took the stock market back at the flat line after an early slip, but selling pressure has picked up with the release of the latest dose of economic data.

New home sales for February hit an annualized rate of 313,000 units, which is less than the pace of 323,000 units that had been expected. Prior month numbers were revised downward to reflect an annualized rate of 318,000 units. DJ30 -15.97 NASDAQ -9.64 SP500 -2.22 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 860/85 mln/1065 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1200/55 mln/1340

09:45 am : Stocks have slipped with the open of trade, but overall losses are only narrow.

Up 0.3%, Financials are displaying modest strength. Utilities and health care, both up 0.1%, stand as the only other sectors that have mustered any kind of a gain this morning.

Meanwhile, Energy simply can't shake free from the efforts of sellers. Although it is down a relatively tame 0.2% this morning, the weakness comes on top of the more than 4% that the Energy sector fell during the course of the three previous sessions. DJ30 -14.53 NASDAQ -5.66 SP500 -1.20 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.80. Trade is expected to open on a flat note, leaving intact the stock market's week-to-date loss of nearly 1%. The decline is actually a welcomed development to some, considering that many pundits believe that consolidation is necessary for the stock market to continue its upward trend. After all, stocks haven't suffered a weekly loss in more than a month. Perhaps more impressive is that in the previous 11 weeks of trade only one weekly loss was experienced. The ride recently took the major equity averages to multi-year highs, overcoming uncertainty about Europe's ability to get a grip on sovereign debt, questions about China's ability to lead a global economic recovery, and questions about plans for U.S. monetary policy.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.80. Commodity futures prices were clipped in the prior session, but buyers are showing interest today. That has the CRB Index up 0.3% after it fell more than 1%.

Crude oil prices are currently up 0.3% to $105.65 per barrel in early pit trade. Meanwhile, natural gas prices are up 1.0% to $2.40 per barrel after the April contract closed pit trade yesterday at a lifetime low.

Among precious metals, gold prices are up 0.9% to $1657.30 per ounce, while silver sports a 1.4% gain at $31.79 per ounce. In the backdrop, the dollar is down about 0.4% against a basket of major foreign currencies.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +1.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +5.80. Renewed weakness in Europe has the EuroStoxx 50 down another 0.7% today. It is now on pace for a weekly loss of nearly 3% after trading up to a multi-month high last week. Germany's DAX is currently down 0.4%. Allianz, BMW, and Siemens (SI 102.20, -0.57) currently lead losses, but Deutsche Post and Man SE have offered some support. Britain's FTSE is presently off by 0.3%. Left to wrestle with a loss of about 5%, Randgold Resources (GOLD 86.91, -3.69) is in the worst shape of the FTSE's constituents. It also fell hard in the prior session as investors became skittish about the threat of political instability in some of its operational locales. Metals plays Rio Tinto (RIO 52.12, -0.51) and Xstrata are also in rough shape. However, BT Group (BT 34.84, +0.00) has bounced to a nice gain. France's CAC is currently off by 0.5%. Energy giant Total (TOT 53.68, -0.37) has been a heavy drag on action. Despite the generally weak action among Europe's equities, the euro has pushed up to $1.33, which makes for a 0.4% gain against the greenback.

Overnight action in Asia was rife with selling. Japan's Nikkei fell 1.1% amid widespread weakness. For the week it was also down roughly 1%. Nomura Holdings (NMR 4.60, +0.00), Sharp Corp., and Nissan Motor (NSANY 20.82, +0.00) finished the week in the worst fashion, suffering some of the steepest losses. Tokyo Dome Corp staged an impressive climb in the face of broad market losses, however. The yen rallied about 1% against the dollar yesterday, but at 82.50 yen per dollar it is hardly changed this morning. Hong Kong's Hang Seng shed 1.1% on Friday, but fell about 3% for the week. Agricultural Bank of China induced selling among financial issues after it posted its latest earnings results. Disappointment over those results imbued shares of banks and other financial plays in Mainland China's Shanghai Composite, which closed 1.1% lower. That fed into a weekly loss of little more than 2%.

Note: ticker quotes reflect U.S. premarket prices.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -0.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +2.50. Broad market futures are essentially flat, despite renewed weakness in Europe. Such listless action leaves the S&P 500 on pace for a weekly loss of almost 1%. That would mark only the first weekly decline in six weeks and the second in 12. The hot streak has the S&P 500 sitting on a year-to-date gain of nearly 11%.

Last evening Accenture (ACN 64.46, +0.94) announced better-than-expected earnings for the latest quarter, and complemented that feat with upside guidance. As for Nike (NKE 111.25, +0.26), it announced an upside earnings surprise of its own. Meanwhile, Micron (MU 8.3.8, -0.33) came short of the consensus earnings estimate. Darden Restaurants (DRI 51.84, +0.01) announced this morning earnings that exceeded what had been widely anticipated on Wall Street. Note: ticker quotes reflect premarket prices.

The only piece of economic data on tap for today is the monthly new home sales report at 10 AM ET.

06:17 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +2.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +7.00.

06:17 am : Nikkei...10011.47...-115.60...-1.10%. Hang Seng...20668.80...-232.80...-1.10%.

06:17 am : FTSE...5845.23...-0.40...0.00. DAX...6968.54...-12.70...-0.20%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader, http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader and http://chart.ly/users/wrbtrader

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