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 Post subject: March 20th Tuesday 2012 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +10.00
PostPosted: Tue Mar 20, 2012 9:59 pm 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)

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click on the above image to view today's performance verification

Price Action Trade Performance for Today: +10.00 points or $1000 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, all trades were posted real-time in the free #FuturesTrades chat room. You can read today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs for details (e.g. time, price, contract size) about each one of my trades from entry to exit along with price action commentary as the trade traversed in comparison to what's shown in the above image...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=102&t=1171.

To join our free chat room...registration instructions located at a different forum @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=630

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my price action trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our price action trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=150&t=1403

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Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/IMF actions or any important global economic events that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables (key market events) causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that results in swing points and strong continuation price actions. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for my technical analysis. Just as important, these summaries becomes my archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past...something I can not get from my broker statements alone.

U.S. Stock Market Wrap

March 20 (Bloomberg) -- Bloomberg's Pimm Fox and Deborah Kostroun report on the performance of the U.S. equity market today. U.S. stocks declined, snapping a three-day advance for the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, as commodities fell on concern about a Chinese economic slowdown.

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Market Update

4:30 pm : Stocks slumped in early trade, but managed to gradually trim losses throughout the session. The major averages still settled with varied losses, though.

The stock market saw its gains pared in the prior session as profit takers pulled it down from a new multi-year high, but selling pressure was much more pronounced this morning. Weakness abroad and concerns about how global economic growth could be impacted by a slowdown in China stoked selling. Members of the steel and metals industry reportedly expect steel production to ease, while country officials announced another fuel price increase.

Plans to increase fuel prices in China for the second time this year came alongside word that Saudi Arabia will increase oil exports to the U.S. That drove down crude oil prices to $106.10 per barrel for a 2.3% loss. Weekly oil inventory numbers will be posted tomorrow at 10:30 AM ET.

Oil's slide weighed heavily on the Energy sector, which suffered a 1.4% loss. Oil and gas equipment and services plays were among the sector's poorest performers. Other key commodities were caught up in concerted selling, too, such that the CRB Index suffered a 1.2% loss. That stands as its worst single-session slide in two weeks. Gold prices dropped 1.2% to settle pit trade at $1647.30 per ounce, while silver suffered a 3.2% loss by settling at $31.89 per ounce.

A pullback by the dollar took some of the pressure off of precious metals this morning, but the relief was only temporary. Although the greenback ended the day below its best levels, support narrowly above the neutral line helped it secure a 0.2% gain against a basket of major foreign currencies.

Financials were the best performers of the day. The sector overcame some early weakness and even fought through a few flurries of selling that forced it back to the flat line to score a 0.4% gain. Investment banks and brokerages led the way.

Overall action was rather uninspiring, but shares of Tiffany & Co. (TIF 73.27, +4.59) rallied sharply to a new multi-month high in response to strong guidance by the company. Disappointing earnings in its most recent quarter were forgiven.

Economic data today was limited to monthly housing starts, which hit an annualized rate of 698,000 units in February. That's down from the prior month's upwardly revised rate of 706,000 units and less than the pace of 705,000 units that had been broadly expected. Building permits for February improved to a rate of 717,000 from 682,000 in the prior month. That bested the rate of 695,000 that had been expected, on average, by economists polled by Briefing.com. The latest monthly existing home sales numbers will be released Wednesday at 10:00 AM ET.

Advancing Sectors: Financials +0.4%, Consumer Discretionary +0.2%, Utilities +0.1%, Telecom +0.1%
Unchanged: Consumer Staples
Declining Sectors: Tech -0.1%, Health Care -0.5%, Materials -0.6%, Industrials -1.1%, Energy -1.4%DJ30 -68.94 NASDAQ -4.17 NQ100 +0.2% R2K -1.0% SP400 -0.7% SP500 -4.23 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 758/1.50 bln/1771 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 985/710 mln/2000

3:30 pm : Overall weakness in the commodity complex caused the CRB Index to suffer a 1.2% loss, which stands as its worst single-session slide since it slumped 1.6% two weeks ago.

Persistent pressure kept crude oil prices in negative territory all session, such that lows were set at $105.66 per barrel before pit trade closed with contracts at $106.10 per barrel for a 2.3% loss. Selling was attributed to concerns about the implications for global economic growth after China announced another increase for fuel prices in the country. Also at play was word that Saudi Arabia will increase oil exports to the U.S.

Natural gas trade was volatile with prices swinging between $2.32 and $2.37 per MMBtu before a late move higher lost momentum and the commodity closed pit trade with a 0.4% loss at $2.34 per MMBtu.

Pronounced selling among precious metals resulted in sharp losses for both gold and silver. A pullback by the dollar had helped ease pressure, but a late sell-off left gold to settle at $1647.30 per ounce with a loss of 1.2%. Silver suffered a 3.2% loss by settling at $31.89 per ounce. DJ30 -52.52 NASDAQ -1.83 SP500 -3.09 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 890/1.18 bln/1610 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1010/455 mln/1950

3:00 pm : Momentum behind the broad market's upward climb has stalled. That has left the major equity averages mired in negative territory with modest losses as they enter the final hour of the day.

Looking ahead to what's on tap for tonight and tomorrow, both Oracle (ORCL 29.74, -0.02) and Jabil Circuit (JBL 26.44, -0.69) will release their quarterly numbers after the close. Tomorrow morning brings the latest from General Mills (GIS 38.76, +0.04). The latest monthly existing home sales numbers will be released Wednesday at 10:00 AM ET. Weekly oil inventory numbers will be posted at 10:30 AM ET. DJ30 -58.69 NASDAQ -7.12 SP500 -4.35 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 820/1.08 bln/1660 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 980/425 mln/1950

2:30 pm : Although its climb has been slow and drawn out, the stock market continues to cut its losses. As such, it now trades at its best level of the day.

The highly influential Financial sector remains a source of support. Financials are off of their session highs, but they're still sporting a 0.4% gain. Consumer Discretionary stocks are close behind with a 0.3% gain, but they lack the market weight to provide the broad market with a meaningful lift.

Treasuries have traded lower amid the stock market's improved position. That has the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note back within reach of 2.40%. DJ30 -48.36 NASDAQ -6.18 SP500 -3.86 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 750/995 mln/1750 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 895/390 mln/2035

2:00 pm : Stocks have resumed their upward crawl so that the major equity averages now trade at their best levels of the day. The effort has helped moderate losses.

Despite the broad market's efforts, Energy stocks have moved to new session lows so that the sector now trades with a 1.5% loss. The move coincides with another drop in oil prices, which now trade with a 2.2% loss at $106.15 per barrel. DJ30 -52.79 NASDAQ -10.34 SP500 -4.47 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 680/895 mln/1785 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 855/360 mln/2070

1:30 pm : The Consumer Discretionary sector has worked its way up to a fresh session high, which puts it at the flat line. Tiffany & Co. (TIF 73.21, +4.53) is off of its best level of the day, but the stock remains a leader in its space. Its surge follows news of upside guidance, which has overshadowed the smaller-than-expected bottom line results for the most recent quarter.DJ30 -62.75 NASDAQ -14.64 SP500 -5.55 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 670/830 mln/1785 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 845/385 mln/2065

1:00 pm : Broad-based selling at the open caused stocks to slump. The recovery effort has stagnated.

The stock market's opening slump was widely cited as a consequence of rekindled concerns about China's economic growth prospects after country officials announced annother fuel price increase and members of the steel and metals industry stated that they expect the country's steel production to ease. Such notions have stirred aggressive selling among Industrials issues and Energy stocks -- both sectors have spent virtually the entire session wrestling with losses in excess of 1%.

Commodities have also been cut down aggressively, resulting in a 0.8% loss for the CRB Index. Oil prices were last quoted with a 1.8% loss at $106.60 per barrel.

Financials managed to overcome early selling, but the sector's effort to put together a gain has come under pressure. The action has left the sector mired near the neutral line, although shares of investment banks and brokerage outfits continue to display strength.

Although broad market action remains underwhelming, Tiffany & Co. (TIF 73.17, +4.49) has managed to trade up to a new 2012 high on the heels of an upside forecast. The stock's climb currently stands as its strongest single-session move since summer.

In the early going the dollar had benefited from diminished want for risk, but it has since surrendered almost all of its move higher. In turn, the Dollar Index has been holding on to a narrow gain of only 0.1%.

The economic calendar was limited today to monthly housing starts, which eased down to an annualized rate of 698,000 units, which only slightly less than what many economists had forecasted. Building permits improved to a rate of 717,000, which actually exceeded what had been widely anticipated. DJ30 -68.34 NASDAQ -19.45 SP500 -6.47 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 585/730 mln/1850 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 755/300 mln/2155

12:30 pm : Stocks continue to muddle along in negative territory. Their weakness has spurred some moderate demand for Treasuries, such that the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note has been trimmed to almost 2.35%. Farther out on the yield curve, the 30-year Bond is yielding 3.45%.DJ30 -66.11 NASDAQ -21.42 SP500 -6.86 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 600/660 mln/1805 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 765/280 mln/2135

12:00 pm : Stocks have been unable to extend their climb off of morning lows, leaving the major equity averages mired in negative territory with sizable losses.

Financials, which began to emerge as a source of leadership, have run into renewed selling, which has sent the sector back to the flat line. Although Financials are struggling to sustain gains, they remain among today's top performers.

Energy stocks and Industrial issues are still at the opposite end of the spectrum. Both sectors are down 1.2% at the moment. Materials plays were forced to similar losses this morning, but the sector has managed to cut its loss to about 0.7%. DJ30 -69.25 NASDAQ -22.59 SP500 -7.56 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 585/590 mln/1800 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 755/250 mln/2130

11:30 am : Financials have worked their way into higher ground after slumping alongside the broad market in the early going. As a group Financials are now up 0.3%. That makes Financials the top performing sector of the session. In fact, Consumer Discretionary plays, collectively up 0.1%, make up the only other sector presently in positive territory.

Among Financial issues, investment banks and brokerage plays are sporting the strongest gains. As such, both Goldman Sachs (GS 127.17, +2.87) and Morgan Stanley (MS 20.58, +0.52) are up in excess of 2%. Diversified banking and financial services play JPMorgan Chase (JPM 45.11, +0.11) has been lagging. DJ30 -70.15 NASDAQ -18.15 SP500 -6.66 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 655/490 mln/1715 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 790/215 mln/2055

11:00 am : Although leadership is lacking, stocks have been slowly working their way up from morning lows. The effort has nearly halved broad market losses.

The dollar continues to hand over its gain. Earlier this morning it was up roughly 0.5% against a basket of major foreign currencies, but it was recently quoted with a gain of less than 0.1%. DJ30 -73.75 NASDAQ -20.00 SP500 -7.01 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 505/390 mln/1810 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 665/175 mln/2160

10:35 am : Persistent selling pressure continues to cut down oil prices, which now stand narrowly above session lows at $106.45 per barrel. That makes for a 1.9% loss, and completely erases the energy component's near 1% advance in the prior session. Natural gas prices have had a relatively volatile morning. Contract prices are back at $2.43 per MMBtu with a 1.5% loss, or fractionally above session lows, after they had bounced from $2.43 per MMBtu to above $2.46 per MMBtu only about an hour ago.

Pronounced selling pressure has precious metals down sharply, too. That said, a pullback by the dollar has helped them ease up from session lows. Gold was recently quoted with a 1.0% loss at $1651 per ounce. It traded narrowly above $1640 per ounce at its morning low. Meanwhile, silver prices are down 1.8% at $32.35 per ounce, but were only a few pennies above $32 per ounce earlier today.

Amid such widespread weakness in the commodity complex the CRB Index has fallen to a 1.0% loss. That stands as its worst single-session slide in two weeks. DJ30 -84.72 NASDAQ -21.56 SP500 -7.35 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 485/290 mln/1785 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 625/135 mln/2160

10:00 am : The dollar has been drifting lower in recent trade, leaving it holding on to a 0.2% gain. Its decline has coincided with a move by the broad market off of its early low.

Although broad market action remains weak, shares of Tiffany & Co. (TIF 73.95, +5.27) are up nearly 8%, which puts the stock on pace for its best single-session performance since August. The move comes in response to the company's latest quarterly report, which featured earnings that came short of the consensus estimate, but that has been forgiven because of the company's upside forecast. Neither Zale (ZLC 3.40, -0.04) nor Blue Nile (NILE 33.54, +0.06) has been able to share in the bounce by TIF. DJ30 -93.43 NASDAQ -24.88 SP500 -9.56 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 375/110 mln/1800 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 440/75 mln/2250

09:45 am : The opening bell has been followed with a barrage of broad-based selling, which has dropped the major equity averages for sharp losses.

Cyclically sensitive plays are grappling with some of the most aggressive selling pressure this morning. More specifically, the Energy sector, Industrials, and Materials are all down in excess of 1%. In contrast, defensive-oriented issues like Utilities and Consumer Staples have limited their losses; the two sectors are down 0.2% and 0.1%, respectively. DJ30 -107.47 NASDAQ -25.73 SP500 -11.25 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -7.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -13.00. The broad market set a new multi-year high yesterday, but gains tapered off into the close. Participants remain inclined to pocket profits this morning as the major averages abroad move lower in response to rekindled concerns about China's economic growth prospects. The country's officials announced that fuel prices will be raised for the second time this year, while members of the steel and metals industry stated that they expect steel production in China to ease.

Amid concerns about growth, oil prices are down more than 1% in early pit trade -- last quoted at $107.35 per barrel. Meanwhile, the dollar has advanced against a collection of competing currencies, but it has since drifted off of its morning high so that it now trades with a gain of nearly 0.4%.

Domestic data has been limited to some rather unexciting monthly housing starts and building permits numbers.

Corporate news has been of little consequence to broad market participants.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -8.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -14.50. Commodities staged solid gains in the prior session, but concerted selling has clipped prices this morning. That has the CRB Index down 0.6%. Among its more commonly quoted constituents, crude oil futures prices have fallen 1.3% in early pit trade to trade at $107.19 per barrel, which is only narrowly above overnight lows. Natural gas prices are presently down 0.2% to $2.46 per MMBtu.

The energy component has had a relatively whippy start to pit trade. Precious metals have been wrestling with pronounced pressure all morning. As such, gold prices are down 1.3% to $1646.00 per ounce, while silver sits at $32.18 per ounce with a 2.3% loss. The greenback's bounce has been a negative for precious metals, which were helped higher in the prior session by the dollar's downturn. The dollar was recently quoted with a 0.4% gain against a basket of major foreign currencies.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -7.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -13.30. Stock futures remain under pressure following the latest dose of data. Housing starts hit an annualized rate of 698,000 units in February. That's down from the prior month's upwardly revised rate of 706,000 units and less than the pace of 705,000 units that had been broadly expected. Building permits for February improved to a rate of 717,000 from 682,000 in the prior month. That bested the rate of 695,000 that had been expected, on average, by economists polled by Briefing.com.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -9.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -15.50. Stock futures are under pressure in an extension of the selling abroad -- overnight losses in Asia have been followed by declines among Europe's major bourses. Financial media are citing concerns about China's growth prospects as causes for the reduction in risk, which has resulted in renewed interest in the dollar. The dollar was recently quoted with a 0.5% gain against a basket of major foreign currencies.

Meanwhile, gold futures prices are down a sharp 1.4% to $1644.50 per ounce. Crude oil futures are down 0.9% to $107.60 per barrel ahead of pit trade. For the second time this year China actually announced that it will raise the country's fuel prices.

A dearth of corporate announcements is headlined by the latest quarterly report from Tiffany & Co. (TIF 71.40, +2.72), which has won enough support to make a marked climb ahead of the open. A decidedly negative response has been made to the latest numbers from Adobe (ADBE 33.15, -1.36). Note: ticker quotes reflect premarket prices.

Monthly housing starts numbers make up the only dose of economic data on tap for today. They are due at the bottom of the hour.

06:18 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -7.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -14.30.

06:18 am : Nikkei...Holiday......... Hang Seng...20888.24...-227.10...-1.10%.

06:18 am : FTSE...5902.50...-58.60...-1.00%. DAX...7073.32...-80.90...-1.10%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader, http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader and http://chart.ly/users/wrbtrader

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