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 Post subject: March 16th Friday 2012 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +4.40
PostPosted: Sat Mar 17, 2012 12:15 am 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)

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click on the above image to view today's performance verification

Price Action Trade Performance for Today: +4.40 points or $440 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, all trades were posted real-time in the free #FuturesTrades chat room. You can read today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs for details (e.g. time, price, contract size) about each one of my trades from entry to exit along with price action commentary as the trade traversed in comparison to what's shown in the above image...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=102&t=1169.

To join our free chat room...registration instructions located at a different forum @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=630

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my price action trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our price action trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=150&t=1403

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Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/IMF actions or any important global economic events that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables (key market events) causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that results in swing points and strong continuation price actions. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for my technical analysis. Just as important, these summaries becomes my archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past...something I can not get from my broker statements alone.

U.S. Stock Market Wrap

March 16 (Bloomberg) -- Bloomberg's Pimm Fox and Deborah Kostroun report on the performance of the U.S. equity market today. The Dow Jones Industrial Average snapped a seven-day gain after an increase in oil and consumer prices sparked inflation concern as the economy improves.

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Market Update

4:30 pm : The broad market spent Friday plodding along narrowly above the neutral line, despite quadruple witching options expiration. The lackluster action comes as stocks trade at multi-year highs.

Gains in the final session of the week were only modest, but they helped the S&P 500 secure a weekly gain of more than 2%. That stands as the stock market's fifth straight weekly gain, or tenth in 11 tries. That hot streak has the S&P 500 up more than 11% year to date and sitting above 1400 for the first time since mid-2008. Along the way the stock market has managed to overcome precarious conditions in Europe, ongoing concerns about global growth prospects, and debate over the plausibility of additional monetary stimulus.

The S&P 500 now trades at about 14.3x trailing 12-month earnings and 13.0x forward earnings. The 5-year historical price-to-trailing earnings average stands at about 16.5, while the 5-year historical average for price-to-forward earnings is about 13.2.

The latest Investor Sentiment Survey from the American Association of Individual Investors suggests that more than 45% of members remain bullish. Its long-term average is closer to 39%.

As a corollary, the Volatility Index is back near its multi-year lows beneath 15. In little more than a week the euphemistically labeled Fear Gauge is down approximately 30%.

Financials had a quiet Friday, but were the primary drivers behind the stock market's advance this week. Conveying its confidence and effectively hinting at satisfactory stress test results, JPMorgan Chase (JPM 44.57, -0.13) announced earlier this week a dividend increase and a $15 billion share repurchase authorization. That brought about concerted buying interest among bank stocks, which collectively climbed close to 7% this week. Citigroup (C 36.69, +0.42) sat out some of that due to disappointment that it, along with three other outfits from a total of 19 firms, came short of certain targets set in the latest round of government mandated stress tests. Collectively, the Financial sector's constituents climbed nearly 6% this week. Year to date, the sector is up more than 20%, which is better than what any other sector has achieved.

Tech, the largest sector by market weight, isn't far behind the Financial sector in terms of its performance in 2012. Year to date tech stocks are collectively up almost 20% after a 3% advance this week. Apple (AAPL 585.57, +0.01) has been an absolute juggernaut and a leader for Tech in 2012; even though it is the largest stock by market cap, which is actually greater than the combined weight of both IBM (IBM 206.01, +0.01) and Microsoft (MSFT 32.60, -0.25), the stock has rallied more than 40% year to date. However, since hitting $600 per share the stock has started to waver some.

The belief that the economy is strengthening helped the dollar trade up to its highest level in nearly two months earlier this week. It lost momentum more recently, resulting in a couple of losses that left the greenback to book a weekly loss of about 0.3%.

Fixed Income Focus

Treasuries were trounced on a couple of occasions this week. Their slide sent the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note as high as 2.35%, which was notched early on Friday before it fought to pare its loss. The Note's yield hasn't been that high since October.

There were a few auctions earlier in the week, but none of them generated results that induced buying interest. The offering of 3-year Notes drew a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.44, dollar demand of $110.1 billion, and an indirect bidder participation rate of 34.6%. For comparison, the an average of the past six auctions results in a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.42, dollar demand of $109.4 billion, and an indirect bidder rate of 36.2%.

The 10-year Notes sale drew a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.24, dollar demand of $68.0 billion, and an indirect bidder participation rate of 38.6%. An average of the past six auctions results in a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.07, dollar demand of $67.2 billion, and an indirect bidder participation rate of 44.0%.

The week's final auction, a 30-year Bond sale, drew a bid-to-cover of 2.70, dollar demand of $35.1 billion, and an indirect bidder participation rate of 29.0%. For comparison, an average of the past six auctions results in a bid-to-cover of 2.72, dollar demand of $37.8 billion, and an indirect bidder participation rate of 31.6%.

A Bevy of Economic Reports

The economic calendar this past week was highlighted by the latest FOMC statement. To little surprise the Committee opted to keep the fed funds target rate at 0.00% to 0.25%. It also maintained an outlook that would likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the fed funds rate at least through late 2014. Although the Fed has been accommodative in its policy efforts, there has been a growing belief among market pundits that further stimulus will likely be put on hold because since the economy continues to improve, albeit at a slow pace.

Retail sales in February increased by 1.1% to outpace the upwardly revised 0.6% increase of the prior month. February results were also slightly better than the 1.0% increase that had been widely expected. Excluding autos, retail sales increased by 0.9%. That bested the Briefing.com consensus call for a 0.6% increase, but it still wasn't as strong as the 1.1% climb in the prior month.

Import prices were up 0.4% in February. Excluding oil, import prices were down 0.1%. In the prior month overall import prices and prices less oil increased by 0.3% and 0.1%, respectively. Export prices increased by 0.4%, or 0.5% when excluding agricultural items. Respective increases of 0.2% and 0.5% were experienced in the prior month.

The fourth quarter current account deficit reportedly totaled $124.1 billion. A deficit of $113.8 billion had been expected, on average, among economists polled by Briefing.com.

Initial jobless claims for the week ended March 10 totaled 351,000. Down 14,000 week over week and not too different than the 355,000 initial claims that had been broadly expected, weekly jobless claims trends continue to suggest improvement in the labor market.

Overall producer prices increased by 0.4% in February, but core producer prices increased by just 0.2%. The general consensus had pegged the increase in overall producer prices at 0.5% and the increase in core producer prices at 0.2%. During the prior month overall producer prices were up only 0.1%, while core producer prices were up 0.4%.

As for consumer prices, they climbed 0.4% in February, while core prices increased by a mere 0.1%. The increase to overall prices was precisely what had been expected, on average, among economists polled by Briefing.com, but the increase in core prices was actually less than the 0.1% increase that had been generally expected. Both overall prices and core prices had increased by 0.2% in the prior month.

In contrast to the consensus call for a drop to 15.0, the Empire Manufacturing Survey for March improved to 20.2, which stands as its highest level in well over a year. Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Fed Survey for March improved to a multi-month high of 12.5, exactly as had been commonly forecasted.

Industrial production in February was flat. That contrasted with the Briefing.com consensus call for a 0.5% increase. Prior month numbers were revised upward to reflect a 0.4% increase, though.

The University of Michigan released its preliminary March reading on consumer sentiment. A reading of 75.8 had been broadly anticipated to follow the one-year high of 75.3 printed in the prior month, but instead the reading eased down to 74.3. DJ30 -20.14 NASDAQ -1.11 NQ100 -0.1% R2K -0.2% SP400 -0.1% SP500 +1.57 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1249/2.02 bln/1308 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1367/1.64 bln/1648

3:30 pm : Overall action in the commodity complex drove the CRB Index to a 0.6% gain today. That was enough to put the CRB in positive territory for the week. The corresponding 0.1% weekly gain comes after the CRB Index suffered back-to-back weekly losses of 1.1% and 1.5%, respectively.

Precious metals were under pressure in electronic trading, causing both gold and silver to hit lows of $1639.70 and $32.13, respectively, ahead of pit trade. However, the pair was helped by renewed weakness in the dollar, which was recently quoted with a loss of about 0.5% against a basket of competing currencies. Gold prices settled at $1656.10 per ounce with a loss of just $3.30, while silver settled at $32.61 per ounce with a loss of $0.11.

Oil benefited from relatively steady buying interest that kept the energy component in positive territory all session. Gains mounted as the session progressed, such that a session high of $107.30 per barrel was notched only minutes before pit trade closed. Oil settled with a gain of $1.84 at $107.03 per barrel. Natural gas popped into positive territory prior to the open of floor trade. It gained a nickel to close the day at $2.33 per MMBtu. DJ30 -2.96 NASDAQ -2.74 SP500 +1.47 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1160/1.41 bln/1340 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1355/865 mln/1610

3:00 pm : Stocks enter the final hour of the week clinging to a narrow gain. What's more impressive is that the broad market measure is on track for its fifth straight weekly gain -- including an incremental advance last week -- and its tenth weekly gain in 11 tries.

Treasuries have steadily trimmed their losses today. The effort has pulled the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note down by about five basis points to 2.30%. DJ30 +5.12 NASDAQ -0.65 SP500 +2.35 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1175/1.33 bln/1305 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1395/830 mln/1570

2:30 pm : Oil prices have pushed higher into the close of pit trade. The energy component is expected to settle with a gain on the order of 1.8% at roughly $107 per barrel. That would leave oil prices only about $0.40 below where they finished trade last week.

With help from oil, Energy stocks have slowly added to their gains. The sector is now up 1.5%, which is triple the gain of the Materials sector. Materials stocks are the second best performing sector of the session. DJ30 +6.20 NASDAQ +0.67 SP500 +2.53 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1175/1.26 bln/1290 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1425/800 mln/1535

2:00 pm : Down more than 4% to trade beneath 15, the Volatility Index is back near its multi-year lows. The euphemistically labeled Fear Gauge is down about 30% from the monthly high that it set just last week.DJ30 +0.11 NASDAQ +0.53 SP500 +2.31 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1155/1.17 bln/1290 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1380/765 mln/1560

1:30 pm : The Utilities sector has descended to a new session low, where it now trades with a 0.5% loss. That's worse than what any other sector has suffered today.

At the other end of the spectrum, the Energy sector is sitting just shy of its session high, sporting a 1.3% gain. Oil, now up 1.2% to $106.35 per barrel, continues to provide a boon to the sector. DJ30 -0.95 NASDAQ +0.01 SP500 +1.88 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1215/1.09 bln/1225 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1400/735 mln/1510

1:00 pm : A dearth of corporate headlines and a batch of unexciting data have left the broad market to chop along narrowly above the neutral line.

Moderate support helped stocks start the session in positive territory, but there really hasn't been any follow-through buying for stocks to continue their uptrend and extend their multi-year highs. Market participants essentially shrugged off monthly consumer price data, which showed increases on par with what had been widely anticipated, and flat industrial production in February. There was a negative reaction to an unexpected decline in the latest Consumer Sentiment Survey to 74.3, but subsequent selling failed to gain traction.

Generally mixed interest has left the broad market to muddle along, but buying interest in Energy plays has ramped up after the sector lagged in each of the last two sessions. As a group, Energy issues are up 1.3%, which is at least more than double what any other sector has achieved. The Energy sector's ascent has been made easier by higher oil prices, which were last quoted with a 1.0% gain at $106.15 per barrel. That stands narrowly beneath the energy component's session high.

Utilities stocks continue to underperform. The defensive-oriented sector is down another 0.4% today. Utilities, down more than 3% year to date, are currently the poorest performing sector of 2012.

Although broad market action has been mixed, Treasuries continue to contend with selling interest. The benchmark 10-year Note has managed to slash its loss, but its yield remains a couple of basis points above 2.30%. Earlier today the Note's yield hit a multi-month high of 2.35%.

As for the dollar, it has been down all day. Its weakness comes as currency traders show a preference for the euro and sterling pound, which are up 0.7% and 0.8%, respectively, against the greenback. DJ30 +0.9 NASDAQ +0.17 SP500 +2.07 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1200/1.00 bln/1210 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1435/705 mln/1480

12:30 pm : The major equity averages continue to chop along in a narrow range near or slightly above the neutral line, but the Energy sector has run up to a new session high so that it now sports a 1.2% gain. The move comes even though oil prices have been unable to hold their ground above $106 per barrel, despite a few attempts. Nonetheless, oil prices are still up 0.8% to $105.95 per barrel.DJ30 +1.40 NASDAQ +2.50 SP500 +2.26 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1140/930 mln/1265 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1365/675 mln/1525

12:00 pm : Utilities stocks continue to lag the rest of the market. The sector is currently off 0.3% for the day, and down 0.5% for the week. Perhaps more telling, the Utilities sector has surrendered more than 3% year to date, whereas the S&P 500 has ascended more than 11% through the first three and a half months of 2012. Utilities stocks, known for their defensive characteristics, stand as the only major sector that is down this year.DJ30 -0.80 NASDAQ +2.53 SP500 +2.05 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1060/860 mln/1330 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1300/650 mln/1575

11:30 am : Stocks continue to chop along with little direction. Meanwhile, the dollar remains mired near its session low with a loss of about 0.5% against a basket of major foreign currencies. Most of the dollar's decline is due to strength in the euro and sterling pound, which have advanced against the dollar by about 0.7% and 0.9%, respectively.DJ30 -1.71 NASDAQ -1.45 SP500 +0.83 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1160/760 mln/1190 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1420/610 mln/1420

11:00 am : Overall action among stocks is still mixed -- the 10 major sectors are evenly divided across positive and negative territory.

Financials have been highly influential in the stock market's recent run, but the sector is taking a bit of a breather today. As a group, financials are up 0.3%. That comes after the sector ascended nearly 2% yesterday. Financials also took a break on Wednesday, when they finished flat after rallying almost 4% on Tuesday.

Gains scored by the Financial sector this past week have it up more than 20% year to date. No other sector has climbed at such a torrid clip in 2012. DJ30 +13.28 NASDAQ +3.19 SP500 +2.41 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1070/660 mln/1235 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1405/575 mln/1415

10:30 am : Crude oil continues to trade with a comfortable gain. The energy component was last quoted at $105.70 per barrel, up 0.5% for the day. It was recently as high as $106.14 per barrel, however. Including early morning lows set during electronic trade, oil prices have traded in a one dollar range.

Natural gas prices were recently up to $2.45 per MMbtu, but the commodity has since eased back to trade with a 0.7% gain at $2.44 per MMBtu.

Precious metals were under stiff pressure earlier this morning, but gold and silver have since slashed their losses. Gold is now unchanged at $1659 per ounce, while silver is off by a relatively tame 0.2% at $32.65 per ounce. Their climb has coincided with a decline by the dollar, which now trails a collection of competing currencies by about 0.5%. DJ30 -5.00 NASDAQ -3.68 SP500 -0.11 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 945/495 mln/1280 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1360/525 mln/1385

10:00 am : Stocks slipped in response to the latest Consumer Sentiment Survey from the University of Michigan. The preliminary reading for March came in at 74.3, which is not only down from the 75.3 posted in the prior month but is also less than the 75.8 that had been generally expected among economists polled by Briefing.com.

Although the Nasdaq remains in negative territory, but the Dow and the S&P 500 were able to find support near the neutral line. As such, overall action remains mixed. DJ30 +1.06 NASDAQ -4.31 SP500 +0.14 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1040/360 mln/1060 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1465/465 mln/1165

09:45 am : After lagging in the last couple of sessions the Energy sector has run up to a 0.8% gain. The move has been led by exploration and production services plays like Schlumberger (SLB 75.92, +1.00). Oilfield services outfit Baker-Hughes (BHI 48.41, +0.82) is also a strong performer this morning. Their gains come even though oil prices, up 0.4% at $105.55 per barrel, are off of their morning highs near $106 per barrel.

Although the broad market is up only narrowly, Treasuries have come under some intense selling pressure, which has resulted in the rise of the 10-year Note's yield to a multi-month high of 2.35%. DJ30 +20.77 NASDAQ -4.24 SP500 +1.68 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +2.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +7.30. Broad market stock futures point to a narrowly higher open today. That would add to what is already a weekly gain greater than 2% for the S&P 500. Barring any aggressive sell-off, the broad market measure should book its tenth weekly advance in 11 tries. While action during the past couple of sessions has been relatively subdued, volatility and volume could be induced today by quadruple witching options expiration.

For now, though, action abroad has offered participants little direction, while economic data has hardly been surprising. Monthly consumer prices increased on par with what had been widely anticipated. Recently released, industrial production proved flat in February when a 0.5% increase had been broadly forecasted. Prior month numbers were revised upward to reflect a 0.4% increase, however.

Still on the calendar is the preliminary monthly reading on consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan. It is due at 9:55 AM ET.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +2.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +7.00. Precious metals are under pressure this morning, forcing gold and silver to hand back some of the gains they scored in the prior session. Gold was last quoted with a 0.8% loss at $1645.50 per ounce, while silver is wrestling with a 1.0% loss at $32.40 per ounce. At their current levels, gold prices are on pace for a weekly loss of nearly 4%, while silver is headed for a weekly loss of more than 5%.

Oil prices are up a solid 0.7% to $105.80 per barrel in early pit trade. For the week, though, oil futures prices are down 1.5%. Natural gas prices are up incrementally to $2.42 per MMBtu today, but week to date contract futures prices are up a more impressive 4.3%.

A broad measure of action in the commodity complex, the CRB Index is up 0.2% this morning, but down 0.3% week to date. The CRB has already logged two consecutive weekly losses.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +2.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +7.50. In the wake of a recent dose of data stock futures have edged higher, but the dollar has drifted lower. Consumer prices increased by 0.4% during February, exactly as had been expected, on average, among economists polled by Briefing.com after overall prices increased by 0.2% in the prior month. Core consumer prices climbed by a far more tepid 0.1%, which is actually less than the 0.2% increase that had been generally anticipated after a 0.2% increase in the prior month. Still to come is monthly industrial production numbers at 9:15 AM ET and the preliminary reading on consumer sentiment for March from the University of Michigan at 9:55 AM ET.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +1.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +7.00. Stocks continued their climb yesterday, taking the S&P 500 to 1400 for the first time since mid-2008, but the tone this morning is relatively flat as market participants await a substantial dose of data. On tap for today is monthly consumer price data at 8:30 AM ET, monthly industrial production numbers at 9:15 AM ET, and the preliminary reading on consumer sentiment for March from the University of Michigan at 9:55 AM ET. Worth noting, too, is that this is a quadruple witching options expiration day, which could add to volume and volatility.

06:20 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -0.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +2.30.

06:20 am : Nikkei...10129.83...+6.60...+0.10%. Hang Seng...21317.85...-35.70...-0.20%.

06:20 am : FTSE...5960.43...+19.70...+0.30%. DAX...7151.72...+7.30...+0.10%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader, http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader and http://chart.ly/users/wrbtrader

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