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 Post subject: March 15th Thursday 2012 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +11.20
PostPosted: Thu Mar 15, 2012 8:15 pm 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)

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031512-wrbtrader-Price-Action-Trading-PnL-Blotter-Profit-1120.png
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click on the above image to view today's performance verification

Price Action Trade Performance for Today: +11.20 points or $1120 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, all trades were posted real-time in the free #FuturesTrades chat room. You can read today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs for details (e.g. time, price, contract size) about each one of my trades from entry to exit along with price action commentary as the trade traversed in comparison to what's shown in the above image...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=102&t=1168.

To join our free chat room...registration instructions located at a different forum @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=630

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my price action trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our price action trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=150&t=1403

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Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/IMF actions or any important global economic events that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables (key market events) causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that results in swing points and strong continuation price actions. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for my technical analysis. Just as important, these summaries becomes my archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past...something I can not get from my broker statements alone.

U.S. Stock Market Wrap

March 15 (Bloomberg) -- Bloomberg's Pimm Fox and Deborah Kostroun report on the performance of the U.S. equity market today. U.S. stocks advanced, sending the Standard & Poor's 500 Index above 1,400 for the first time in almost four years, as data showed manufacturing in the New York region unexpectedly increased and jobless claims declined.

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Market Update

4:30 pm : Early trade was lackluster as market participants appeared reluctant to either bet on or against a stock market that has consistently shrugged off precarious conditions in Europe, ongoing concerns about prospects for global growth, and debate over the necessity of monetary stimulus. The ascent has the S&P 500 on pace for its fifth straight weekly advance and its tenth in 11 tries. The hot streak has the broad market measure above 1400 for the first time since mid-2008.

Financials have fueled the latest leg of gains. The sector had a quiet follow-up to the near 4% surge that it scored two days ago, but this session it added almost 2% more. Financials are now up more than 20% year to date. That makes them the best performing sector of 2012.

Among financial issues, banks were especially strong as buyers continued to flock to the space following the recent release of stress test results -- the KBW Bank Index bounded to a 2.7% gain.

Tech stocks aren't far behind Financials in terms of their year-to-date performance, but the sector, which mustered a 0.3% gain today, was hampered by weakness in Apple (AAPL 585.56, -4.02). The biggest stock by market weight opened the day at a record high of roughly $600 per share, but it gradually descended into negative territory. Still, the stock is up more than 40% year to date, leaving some to question just how long the stock can continue its climb.

Data released this morning had little influence over trade. Initial jobless claims for the week ended March 10 totaled 351,000, which is down 14,000 week over week, but not too different than the 355,000 initial claims that had been broadly expected.

Producer prices for February increased by 0.4% month over month, but a 0.5% increase had been broadly anticipated. Core producer prices increased by a more moderate 0.2% month over month, as had been generally expected.

The Empire Manufacturing Survey improved to 20.2 in March from 19.5 in February, contrasting with the consensus call for a reading of 15.0. The Philadelphia Fed Survey improved to 12.5 in March from 10.2 in February, but that matched what had been broadly forecasted.

There aren't any earnings reports of consequence scheduled for this evening or tomorrow morning, but Friday does bring monthly consumer price data at 8:30 AM ET, monthly industrial production numbers at 9:15 AM ET, and the preliminary reading on consumer sentiment for March from the University of Michigan at 9:55 AM ET. Worth noting, too, is that tomorrow is a quadruple witching options expiration day, which could add to volume and volatility.

Advancing Sectors: Financials +1.9%, Industrials +1.2%, Materials +0.8%, Consumer Discretionary +0.4%, Telecom +0.4%, Tech +0.3%, Consumer Staples +0.2%, Health Care +0.2%, Energy +0.1%
Declining Sectors: Utilities -0.1%DJ30 +58.66 NASDAQ +15.64 NQ100 +0.2% R2K +1.0% SP400 +0.9% SP500 +8.32 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1672/1.67 bln/833 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1811/844 mln/1208

3:30 pm : Crude oil suffered a sell-off of about two points this morning in response to reports regarding the release of emergency oil reserves, but most of that was regained after the White House called those reports false. Crude oil futures settled $0.29 lower at $105.19 per barrel.

As for natural gas prices, the energy component overcame an early loss with help from a better-than-expected weekly inventory report that showed a draw of 64 bcf when a draw of 60 bcf had been widely anticipated. Natural gas prices set a session high of $2.33 per MMBtu before slowly descending to $2.28 per MMBtu for a flat close.

Precious metals were helped by a weaker dollar today. Gold prices closed at $1659.40 per ounce, near its session high, for a gain of $16.70 after suffering three straight losses that accumulated to a drop of almost 70 points. Silver followed gold's lead by booking a $0.56 gain at $32.72 per ounce. DJ30 +42.91 NASDAQ +15.33 SP500 +7.42 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1555/1.33 bln/940 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1725/545 mln/1250

3:00 pm : The final hour of the trading day is here. As things currently stand, the stock market is on pace for its third advance in four days of trade, including an incremental gain of less than 0.1% this past Monday. With that, the S&P 500 is on track for a weekly gain of about 2%, which would make for the broad market measure's fifth straight weekly advance and its tenth in 11 tries.

As participants prepare to wrap up the day, tomorrow's agenda is coming into closer focus. There aren't any earnings reports of consequence scheduled for this evening or tomorrow morning, but Friday does bring monthly consumer price data at 8:30 AM ET, monthly industrial production numbers at 9:15 AM ET, and the preliminary reading on consumer sentiment for March from the University of Michigan at 9:55 AM ET. Worth noting, too, is that tomorrow is a quadruple witching options expiration day, which could add to volume and volatility. DJ30 +39.74 NASDAQ +14.97 SP500 +7.12 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1515/1.19 bln/960 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1715/495 mln/1265

2:30 pm : Stocks have stabilized since drifting off of their session highs. That has helped keep in place solid gains for the major equity averages.

Airline shares have ascended impressively this session, such that the Dow Jones Airlines Index is up almost 5%. The gains have persisted in the wake of news that dismissed reports about opening up U.S. oil reserves as mere rumors. DJ30 +31.33 NASDAQ +10.32 SP500 +6.04 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1490/1.10 bln/965 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1675/460 mln/1295

2:00 pm : Stocks are coming down from their session highs. The Nasdaq's descent has come at a faster pace than that of its counterparts. That's mostly because shares of Apple (AAPL 581.55, -8.03), the biggest stock by market weight, have fallen to a marked loss after opening the session day at a record high of $600 per share. The action comes as many market watchers begin to question just how long shares of AAPL can continue their climb now that the stock is up more than 40% year to date.DJ30 +32.02 NASDAQ +10.44 SP500 +6.29 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1475/1.01 bln/975 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1685/430 mln/1280

1:30 pm : Stocks are easing off of session highs, but overall gains remain solid amid support from the Financial sector, which continues to sport a gain of almost 2%.

Even though the stock market has continued to work its way higher -- including an incremental gain of less than 0.1% this past Monday, the S&P 500 is on pace for its sixth advance in seven sessions -- the benchmark 10-year Note is staying close the neutral line. The limited movement comes after the Note dropped yesterday by more than a full point. That move took its yield up to a multi-month high. DJ30 +28.84 NASDAQ +10.08 SP500 +5.87 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1545/900 mln/885 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1735/385 mln/1210

1:00 pm : The stock market has pushed up to a solid gain after starting the session in lackluster fashion. Financials have been driving the action.

Trade opened on a flat note amid mixed action abroad and a sizable batch of generally in-line producer price data and weekly initial jobless claims numbers. The latest Emprire State Manufacturing Survey, which was surprisingly strong, was also released prior to the open, but it did little to excite. After the open an in-line Philadelphia Fed Survey was released.

Although they faltered in the early going, financial stocks steadily found favor among market participants. The sector has since ascended to a 1.7% gain. Bank stocks have been particularly influential; their strength has lifted the KBW Bank Index to a 2.5% gain.

Leadership from the Financial sector has put the S&P 500 in touch with 1400 for the first time since mid-2008. Moreover, the broad market measure is now up about 11% for the year.

Coinciding with the stock market's climb is a drop by the dollar, which now lags a collection of competing currencies by 0.6%.

The dollar's decline has made it easier for gold to add to its gain. The yellow metal was up only narrowly this morning, but it now sports a 1.0% gain at $1659 per ounce.

Meanwhile, oil has oscillated throughout the day and now, at $105.60, is only fractionally positive. Some of oil's swings today have been induced by conflicting reports about the release of strategic oil reserves. DJ30 +45.65 NASDAQ +17.85 SP500 +7.37 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1540/820 mln/870 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1730/355 mln/1210

12:30 pm : Led higher by Financials, the S&P 500 has come in touch with the 1400 line for the first time since June 2008. The broad market measure is now up about 11% year to date.

Meanwhile, oil prices continue to oscillate. The latest action comes in response to conflicting reports regarding the release of U.S. strategic oil reserves. Oil prices are currently down 0.4% at $105 per barrel. DJ30 +35.23 NASDAQ +15.54 SP500 +6.89 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1310/715 mln/1090 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1490/310 mln/1430

12:00 pm : Broad market action remains choppy. By extension, the major equity averages have been unable to make a meaningful move away from the flat line.

Although overall trade is lackluster, Financials continue to build on their bounce. As such, the sector now sports a 1.2% gain, which is double the 0.6% gain that Industrials -- the second best performing sector -- have achieved. Among financial issues, Regions Financial (RF 6.51, +0.34) is a top performer by percent gained. DJ30 +17.18 NASDAQ +10.37 SP500 +4.00 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1255/630 mln/1110 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1390/275 mln/1495

11:30 am : Stocks recently encountered a flurry of selling pressure that dropped both the Dow and the Nasdaq to the neutral line, but each was able to find support there. All the while the broad-based S&P 500 was able to maintain a modest gain.

Financials continue to provide support. The sector is now sporting a 1.0% gain as it sits at its best level since last summer. Year to date, the Financial sector is up nearly 20%, which is on par with what the Tech sector has achieved this year. Tech and Financials stand as the best performing sectors of 2012. In contrast, Utilities, down 0.5% today, are the worst performers of 2012. With a year-to-date loss of nearly 4%, Utilities stand as the only sector in negative territory this year. Strikingly, the weak display comes after the sector outperformed in 2011 with an annual gain on the order of 15%, which didn't even include the positive impact of dividends. DJ30 +14.95 NASDAQ +11.40 SP500 +3.95 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1090/535 mln/1245 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1300/235 mln/1565

11:00 am : Financials faltered in the early going, but the sector has since run ahead to a 0.9% gain. The sector's strength comes amid renewed interest in bank stocks, which have already lifted the KBW Bank Index to a 1.5% gain. Although the gains aren't directly attributable to any new headlines, some pundits featured on financial media outlet CNBC this morning shared their belief that banks are fundamentally stronger, and that they are positioned for further improvement.DJ30 +10.67 NASDAQ +6.78 SP500 +3.07 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1215/380 mln/1035 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1465/180 mln/1345

10:35 am : Natural gas prices swung into higher ground minutes before the release of weekly inventory data, which showed draw of 64 bcf when a draw of 60 bcf had been expected. Following the release of the data natural gas prices have added to their gains so that they are now up 1.8% to $2.46 per MMBtu.

Oil prices have oscillated between positive and negative territory since the open of pit trade. Prices currently stand at $105.65 per barrel, which makes for a 0.2% gain.

Precious metals have traded with only modest gains for most of the morning, but have moved slightly higher in recent trade. Gold futures prices now stand at $1648.00 per ounce, which makes for a 0.3% gain. Silver is now sporting a 0.5% gain at $32.34 per ounce.

In the backdrop, the dollar is down about 0.3% against a basket of major foreign currencies. DJ30 +11.58 NASDAQ +9.75 SP500 +3.48 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1060/260 mln/1110 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1265/135 mln/1490

10:00 am : The Philadelphia Fed Survey was just released. It improved to 12.5 in March from 10.2 in February, exactly has had been broadly forecasted. However, the in-line improvement hasn't done anything to induce any kind of dramatic action among stocks. Instead, the major equity averages remain near the neutral line as they attempt to establish a direction for trade. That said, stocks may very well continue to crawl sideways, just as they did yesterday, as market participants reflect on the climb to a new multi-year high at the start of the week.DJ30 -11.39 NASDAQ +5.26 SP500 +0.73 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 835/100 mln/1210 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 980/65 mln/1670

09:45 am : The major equity averages are in negative territory, but their losses remain narrow.

Underlying action is mostly mixed with eight of the 10 major sectors trading within 0.2% -- either above or below -- the flat line. Energy and Consumer Discretionary stand as the two sectors that have moved beyond that range; both are down 0.3% in an anything-but-dramatic move. DJ30 -18.24 NASDAQ +0.70 SP500 -1.03 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +3.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +8.00. Stock futures suggest that the cash market will open on a slightly positive note. The bias comes amid a substantial dose of data that featured a relatively in-line weekly initial jobless claims tally, some unexciting producer price data, and a surprisingly strong Empire State Manufacturing Survey. Still on the calendar is the latest Philadelphia Fed Survey, which is due at 10:00 AM ET.

The dollar is down modestly after staging a solid gain in the prior session; it is still up 0.4% week to date. Meanwhile, commodities are mostly mixed.

Earnings reports have been limited in scope and consequence, but worth noting is the planned acquisition of NDS by Dow component Cisco (CSCO 20.06, -0.13) for approximately $5 billion. Note: ticker quotes reflect premarket prices.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +3.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +8.00. Commodities are mostly mixed this morning. As such, the CRB Index is hardly up 0.1%. Among its more commonly quoted constituents, crude oil prices are up 0.6% to $106.10 per barrel in early pit trade. Natural gas prices are down 1.5% to $2.38 per MMBtu. Weekly natural gas inventory numbers are due at 10:30 AM ET.

Precious metals prices are up only narrowly this morning. Specifically, gold has gained 0.2% to trade at $1646.70 per ounce, while silver is sitting at $32.27 per ounce with a 0.3% gain.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +3.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +8.80. Stock futures have maintained a modest lead over fair value following a substantial dose of data. Initial jobless claims for the week ended March 10 totaled 351,000, which is down 14,000 week over week, but not too different than the 355,000 initial claims that had been expected, on average, among economists polled by Briefing.com. Continuing claims also came down. They totaled about 3.34 million after standing at about 3.42 million in the prior reading.

Separately, the Empire Manufacturing Survey improved to 20.2 in March from 19.5 in February. The improvement came as a pleasant surprise since the popular prediction pegged it at 15.0.

Producer price data for February was also recently released. Overall producer prices increased by 0.4% month over month, but a 0.5% increase had been broadly anticipated. Core producer prices increased by a more moderate 0.2% month over month, as had been generally expected.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +4.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +8.30. Following a flat finish to trade yesterday, the broad market is benefiting from a modest premarket bid today. Support comes despite mixed action abroad and news that analysts at Fitch Ratings assigned a negative outlook to the United Kingdom. The sterling pound is currently up 0.1% against the greenback. Corporate news continues to carry little broad market consequence, but Guess (GES 32.40, -4.30) shares have taken a dive in response to the company's latest quarterly report. Note: ticker quotes reflect premarket prices. There's a substantial dose of data on tap for today. The bottom of the hour brings the latest weekly initial jobless claims tally, monthly producer price data, and the latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The Philadelphia Fed Survey follows at 10:00 AM ET.

06:23 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +2.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.00.

06:22 am : Nikkei...10123.28...+72.80...+0.70%. Hang Seng...21353.53...+45.60...+0.20%.

06:22 am : FTSE...5944.58...-0.90...0.00. DAX...7100.75...+21.30...+0.30%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader, http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader and http://chart.ly/users/wrbtrader

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