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 Post subject: March 14th Wednesday 2012 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +3.60
PostPosted: Wed Mar 14, 2012 10:32 pm 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)

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click on the above image to view today's performance verification

Price Action Trade Performance for Today: +3.60 points or $360 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, all trades were posted real-time in the free #FuturesTrades chat room. You can read today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs for details (e.g. time, price, contract size) about each one of my trades from entry to exit along with price action commentary as the trade traversed in comparison to what's shown in the above image...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=102&t=1167.

To join our free chat room...registration instructions located at a different forum @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=630

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my price action trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our price action trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=150&t=1403

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Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/IMF actions or any important global economic events that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables (key market events) causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that results in swing points and strong continuation price actions. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for my technical analysis. Just as important, these summaries becomes my archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past...something I can not get from my broker statements alone.

U.S. Stock Market Wrap

March 14 (Bloomberg) -- Bloomberg's Pimm Fox and Deborah Kostroun report on the performance of the U.S. equity market today. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index fell, snapping a five-day advance, after the benchmark gauge for U.S. equities rallied to the highest level since June 2008.

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Market Update

4:30 pm : The major equity averages booked a mixed finish as participants opted to rest on the heady gains scored in the prior session.

Stocks bounded in the prior session to set new multi-year highs. That drove buying abroad, but the positive tone was unable to extend into trade today. Instead, the broad market generally remained mired near the neutral line.

Economic data failed to act as a catalyst for trade. It featured a 0.4% increase in overall import prices. Excluding oil, import prices eased down by 0.1%. Prior month import prices featured increases of 0.3% and 0.1%, respectively. Export prices increased by 0.4%, or 0.5% when excluding agricultural items. The prior month saw export prices increase by 0.2% and 0.5%, respectively.

The fourth quarter current account deficit reportedly totaled $124.1 billion. A deficit of $113.8 billion had been expected, on average, among economists polled by Briefing.com.

Given the near 4% surge achieved by Financials in the prior session, the sector didn't have much of a reaction to news that only four of 19 banks came short of targets established in the latest round of stress tests. That said, many bank stocks were able to extend their gains, driving the KBW Bank Index to a 1.3% gain and its best level since last summer.

Tech stocks, which collectively carry the greatest market weight of any sector, traded with strength for most of the session. Gains were checked in mid-afternoon trade, but it was able to bounce off of the neutral line to score a 0.6% gain. Apple (AAPL 589.58, +21.48) shares continue to climb, resulting in new record highs and a market cap of nearly $550 billion. The stock's latest leg of gains came in combination of strong momentum and positive analyst commentary.

Treasuries were trounced. The action took the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note to a new multi-month high above 2.25%.

Also a traditional safe haven, gold prices dropped precipitously -- more than $50 -- to almost $1640 per ounce. That stoked selling in the SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD 159.57, -2.56), which tumbled to its lowest level since January.

The notion that an improving macro picture, albeit at a sluggish pace, diminishes the need for more monetary stimulus in the near term continues to bolster buying interest in the greenback. The dollar had ascended to a 0.5% gain against a basket of major foreign currencies by day's end.

Advancing Sectors: Tech +0.6%
Unchanged: Financials, Health Care
Declining Sectors: Consumer Discretionary -0.1%, Industrials -0.2%, Consumer Staples -0.3%, Materials -0.5%, Telecom -0.5%, Energy -1.0%, Utilities -1.4%DJ30 +16.42 NASDAQ +0.85 NQ100 +0.4% R2K -0.9% SP400 -0.7% SP500 -1.67 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 805/1.66 bln/1745 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 800/853 mln/2230

3:30 pm : Crude oil settled at $105.48 per barrel with a loss of $1.23 after it spent the majority of the afternoon session in negative territory. Its lows were logged near narrowly above $105 per barrel. Natural gas prices closed three pennies in the red at $2.28 per MMBtu.

As for gold prices, they fell $51.70 to $1642.70 per ounce. Meanwhile, silver sank $1.38 to $32.16 per ounce.

Widespread weakness in the commodity complex took the CRB Index down nearly three points to 315.7. DJ30 -0.62 NASDAQ -6.56 SP500 -2.08 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 780/1.33 bln/1760 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 790/575 mln/2245

3:00 pm : Stocks enter the final hour of the session with mixed results. Guess? (GES 36.53, -0.19) and Ross Stores (ROSS 56.48, -0.47) are scheduled to report after the close and tomorrow morning, respectively, but there aren't any scheduled quarterly reports with the potential to influence broad market sentiment. Tomorrow's economic calendar features the latest weekly initial jobless claims count, monthly producer price data, the Empire State Manufacturing Survey, and the Philadelphia Fed Survey. Treasury International Capital flows data are also slated for release tomorrow.DJ30 +9.39 NASDAQ -5.14 SP500 -3.25 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 725/1.21 bln/1780 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 760/530 mln/2250

2:30 pm : Stocks appear to have stabilized after setting session lows a few minutes ago. Overall losses are only modest.

Although broad market losses are limited in size, the Energy sector is down 0.8%. Its weakness was exacerbated by a drop in oil prices, which accelerated to the downside as the close of pit trade approached. Moments before settling the energy component was quoted with a 1.2% loss at about $105.40 per barrel. DJ30 -3.79 NASDAQ -9.12 SP500 -4.49 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 725/1.11 bln/1785 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 725/490 mln/2270

2:00 pm : A recent bout of selling has caused stocks to reverse off of their recent upturn. The selling effort has taken the broad market to a new session low, although overall losses remain only modest.

Meanwhile, the dollar is now at its best level of the day. Its 0.5% gain has the Dollar Index up about 0.7% for the week. DJ30 -2.84 NASDAQ -6.64 SP500 -3.79 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 835/970 mln/1650 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 915/435 mln/2070

1:30 pm : Yields are at session highs as Treasuries continue to trade with weakness in the wake of a 30-year Bond sale that drew a bid-to-cover of 2.70, dollar demand of $35.1 billion, and an indirect bidder participation rate of 29.0%. For comparison, the prior offering drew a bid-to-cover of 2.47, dollar demand of $39.5 billion, and an indirect bidder rate of 29.2%, while an average of the past six auctions results in a bid-to-cover of 2.72, dollar demand of $37.8 billion, and an indirect bidder participation rate of 31.6%.

At the same time that Treasuries have traded lower stocks have traded higher. Their upturn has the major equity averages at their best levels of the afternoon. DJ30 +33.72 NASDAQ +9.06 SP500 +1.96 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 840/880 mln/1620 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 915/400 mln/2050

1:00 pm : The broad market has spent most of the session trading quietly near the neutral line, but many banks have been able to extend their prior session bounce on the back of stress test results.

Most stocks are taking a breather after the broad market bounded yesterday to its best level since 2008. The advance, which stands as the best single-session surge of 2012, was led by Financials. Financials collectively climbed nearly 4% yesterday, but right now the sector is flat. That said, another bounce by bank stocks has the KBW Bank Index up 1.0%.

Strength among banking issues comes in conjunction with news that only four of 19 banks came short of targets established in the latest round of stress tests. Citigroup (C 35.17, -1.28) was among the few that failed.

Tech stocks have also displayed strength. The sector is up 0.6% with help from Apple (AAPL 585.03, +16.93), which has set another record high amid positive analyst commentary.

Utilities have been under pressure for virtually the entire session. Their 1.1% loss comes after the sector eked out a mere 0.2% gain in the prior session. The unimpressive performances by the defensive-oriented sector come in contrast with the standout showing it had in 2011, when it advanced on the order of 15%, excluding dividends.

Treasuries are also under pronounced pressure today. The benchmark 10-year Note was recently quoted with a loss of a full point. That has its yield at a new multi-month high near 2.25%. Results from an auction of 30-year Bonds are due at any moment.

Gold has been grappling with aggressive selling, too, such that the precious metal was last quoted with a 2.7% loss at $1648.80 per ounce. The action comes in conjunction with the belief that there is likely less monetary stimulus in the pipeline amid an improving macro picture, even if that improvement is at a gradual pace.

That same theme seems to be supporting the dollar, which has ascended to a 0.4% gain against a basket of major foreign currencies. DJ30 +19.26 NASDAQ +3.49 SP500 -0.28 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 835/820 mln/1630 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 840/375 mln/2120

12:30 pm : Results from an auction of 30-year Bonds are due at the top of the hour. Ahead of the report the 30-year Bond's yield stands at almost 3.40%. Meanwhile, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note has moved up to almost 2.25% in response to the concerted selling effort that has cut down Treasuries today.DJ30 +10.56 NASDAQ -2.81 SP500 -2.36 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 800/725 mln/1650 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 795/340 mln/2160

12:00 pm : Overall action remains mixed as the major equity averages muddle along. The lackluster action comes as many market participants opt to take a breather after stocks bounded in the prior session to book their biggest percentage gain of 2012 and set their highest level since 2008.

Financials flew high in the prior session, scoring a collective gain of almost 4%. Today, though, the sector is down 0.2%. Bank stocks have managed to extend their advance on the back of encouraging results from the latest round of bank stress tests. As such, the KBW Bank Index is up 0.7%. DJ30 +14.08 NASDAQ -1.64 SP500 -1.63 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 770/645 mln/1625 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 780/305 mln/2135

11:30 am : The broad market has drifted down to a new session low, where it trades with only a modest loss. Both the Nasdaq and the Dow remain near the flat line.

Down 0.9% as a group, Utilities have been a particularly weak performing sector this session. Their poor performance today comes on the heels of an unimpressive performance in the prior session, when Utilities eked out a mere 0.2% gain while the broad market bounded to a gain of almost 2.0%. The defensive-oriented sector outperformed in 2011 by ascending to a gain on the order of 15%. What's more, that move didn't even include the benefit of dividends. DJ30 +5.49 NASDAQ -3.38 SP500 -2.68 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 770/555 mln/1610 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 800/265 mln/2100

11:00 am : In an extension of their slide in the prior session, Treasuries are under pronounced pressure today. The action has dropped the benchmark 10-year Note for a loss of almost a full point, taking its yield comfortably above 2.20% to a new 2012 high.

Treasuries may be down sharply, but the dollar -- a fellow safe haven -- has ascended to a 0.4% gain against a basket of major foreign currencies. The greenback's gain comes in conjunction with the belief that there is likely less monetary stimulus in the pipeline amid an improving macro picture, even if that improvement is at a gradual pace. DJ30 +20.24 NASDAQ +2.88 SP500 -0.56 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 895/450 mln/1440 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 990/215 mln/1865

10:35 am : Crude oil prices are currently up 0.2% at $106.95 per barrel. Weekly oil inventory numbers were released only minutes ago. They showed a build of 1.75 million barrels when a build of 1.60 million barrels had been expected. Prior to the inventory report oil traded with a loss of only about 0.2%.

At $2.43 per MMBtu, natural gas prices are currently up 0.8%. Futures prices were actually under pressure shortly after the open of pit trade.

Precious metals remain under pressure as traders react to the possibility that further quantitative easing could be put on hold because of an improving macro picture and higher energy prices. As such, gold prices are down 2.5% to $1652 per ounce, while silver wrestles with a 1.5% loss at $33.09 per ounce. DJ30 +35.82 NASDAQ +5.72 SP500 +1.35 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1045/295 mln/1215 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1245/155 mln/1535

10:00 am : The major equity averages continue to hold their ground narrowly above the neutral line. Tech stocks are actually showing leadership, but the broader market has been reluctant to follow.

Tech stocks are currently up 0.5%, collectively. The sector's advance, which comes on top of the 2.0% climb that it staged yesterday, is currently led by Apple (AAPL 581.42, +13.32), which is up markedly to a new record high amid positive analyst commentary. Shares of AAPL are up nearly 20% from their February low. DJ30 +29.86 NASDAQ +6.71 SP500 +1.74 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 815/122 mln/1330 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1040/89 mln/1625

09:45 am : Action is choppy in the early going, but the major equity averages have managed to muster narrow gains. Underlying action remains mixed.

Financials were leaders throughout the prior session, but this morning the sector is staying near the flat line as it rests on the near 4% gain that it scored yesterday. The latest series of bank stress tests showed that 15 of 19 firms passed. Citigroup (C 35.33, -1.12), SunTrust Banks (STI 23.39, +0.81), and Metlife (MET 37.50, -1.96) came short of certain targets. DJ30 +21.11 NASDAQ +6.27 SP500 +1.66 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +1.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.00. The tone ahead of the open remains neutral as traders rest on the heady gains scored in the prior session. In contrast, commodities are generally weaker. Gold, in particular, is down nearly 3% to $1645 per ounce as participants react to the idea that further quantitative easing is less likely amid a gradually improving economy and higher energy prices. With that same theme at play, the dollar is up narrowly against a basket of major foreign currencies. Week to date the Dollar Index is up about 0.4%.

Import and export price data released earlier this morning failed to undo the flat tone of premarket trade. There aren't any other economic items on the calendar for today, but 10:30 AM ET brings the latest weekly oil inventory report. Results from an auction of 30-year Bonds will be released at 1:00 PM ET.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +1.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.30. Widespread weakness in the commodity complex has the CRB Index down by 0.6%. Crude oil prices are down 0.4% to $106.25 per barrel in the opening minutes of pit trade. Coming up at 10:30 AM ET is the latest weekly oil inventory tally. Natural gas continues to wrestle with selling pressure, which has dropped the energy component to $2.37 per MMBtu for a 1.6% loss.

Precious metals remain under pressure after they began to sell off following the close of pit trade in the prior session. Gold was last quoted with a 2.8% loss at $1646.40 per ounce, while silver is off by 1.9% at $32.95 per ounce.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -0.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -0.50. Stock futures have made no real reaction to the latest monthly dose of import and export price data. As such, they point to a flat start for trade today. During February import prices increased by 0.4% after a 0.3% increase in the prior month. Excluding oil, import prices eased down by 0.1% after a 0.1% increase had been experienced in the prior month. Export prices increased by 0.4% in February after a 0.2% increase in the prior month. Excluding agricultural items, export prices increased by 0.5% after they were flat in the prior month.

Separately, the fourth quarter current account deficit totaled $124.1 billion, which is greater than the $113.8 billion deficit that had been expected, on average, among economists polled by Briefing.com.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +0.80. A tepid tone this morning follows the strongest rally of 2012 and new multi-year highs for the major equity averages. Financials led the prior session advance with help from JPMorgan Chase (JPM 43.35, -0.04), which announced a dividend hike and plans for share repurchases ahead of news last evening that it passed the recent bank stress test. Overall stress test results are highlighted by news that only four of 19 banks failed to pass. Citigroup (C 34.86, -1.59) was among the few that came short of certain targets, resulting in some pronounced premarket selling pressure. Note: ticker quotes reflect premarket prices.

Import and export price data are due at the bottom of the hour. Weekly oil inventory numbers are scheduled for release at 10:30 AM ET. At 1:00 PM ET market participants receive results from an auction of 30-year Bonds.

06:18 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +1.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +2.50.

06:17 am : Nikkei...10050.52...+151.40...+1.50%. Hang Seng...21307.89...-31.80...-0.20%.

06:17 am : FTSE...5978.38...+22.50...+0.40%. DAX...7069.27...+73.40...+1.10%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader, http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader and http://chart.ly/users/wrbtrader

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