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 Post subject: March 5th Monday 2012 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +14.70
PostPosted: Mon Mar 05, 2012 10:50 pm 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)

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click on the above image to view today's performance verification

Price Action Trade Performance for Today: +14.70 points or $1470 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, all trades were posted real-time in the free #FuturesTrades chat room. You can read today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs for details (e.g. time, price, contract size) about each one of my trades from entry to exit along with price action commentary as the trade traversed in comparison to what's shown in the above image...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=102&t=1157.

To join our free chat room...registration instructions located at a different forum @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=630

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my price action trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our price action trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=150&t=1403

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Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/IMF actions or any important global economic events that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables (key market events) causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that results in swing points and strong continuation price actions. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for my technical analysis. Just as important, these summaries becomes my archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past...something I can not get from my broker statements alone.

Stocks Dip On China's Lower Growth Outlook

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click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- U.S. stocks recovered quite a bit of lost ground but still finished in the red Monday, following the path of world markets, after China lowered its annual growth target.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) lost 15 points, or 0.1%, the S&P 500 (SPX) slipped 5 points, or 0.4%, and the Nasdaq composite (COMP) decreased 26 points, or 0.9%.

World markets fell Monday, after Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao set a lower target for China's economic growth, underscoring the need to make the country's breakneck development more sustainable.

The government is aiming for economic growth of 7.5% in 2012, Wen said -- lower than the 2011 goal of about 8%. The Chinese economy often exceeds the official objective; last year it grew 9.2%.

"Even though China only lowered its target by half a percentage point, it's a telegraph to the rest of the world that the second largest economy is slowing," said Tom Schrader, managing director at Stifel Nicolaus.

* American manufacturers importing workers

China's lower forecast also suggests that the country's recent steps to ease monetary policy -- in an effort to maintain strong economic growth while getting inflation under control -- may not be working, said Schrader.

Aluminum-maker Alcoa (AA, Fortune 500) and Caterpillar (CAT, Fortune 500), which makes construction equipment, were the biggest laggards in the Dow amid worries that slower growth in China could pressure demand for their products.

Trading could be choppy this week, leading up to a big news day on Friday. On the domestic front, investors will get the latest snapshot of the U.S. labor market, with the release of the February jobs report.

In Europe, Friday marks the deadline for private creditors to sign off on Greece's debt write-down. Greece needs the debt deal to secure its €130 billion rescue package from the eurozone and avoid default.

* Lehman Brothers to boost the market?

Stocks closed modestly lower last Friday, with the Dow snapping a two-week winning streak.

World markets: European stocks closed lower. Britain's FTSE 100 (UKX) lost 0.6%, while the DAX (DAX) in Germany dropped 0.9% and France's CAC 40 (CAC40) shed 0.3%.

Asian markets ended lower. The Shanghai Composite (SHCOMP) closed down 0.6%, while the Hang Seng (HSI) in Hong Kong lost 1.4% and Japan's Nikkei (N225) dropped 0.8%.

Economy: The February ISM services index rose to 57.3, up from 56.8, which beat expectations.

* Washington's $5 trillion interest bill

Last week, the ISM manufacturing index for February slipped to 52.4, from 54.1 in January, indicating a slowdown in the sector's expansion.

Meanwhile, factory orders in January decreased 1% -- less than the 1.9% decline analysts were expecting. Factory orders rose 1.4% in December.

Companies: IBM (IBM, Fortune 500) shares hit all-time high above $200 share. Citigroup (C, Fortune 500) announced that it is exploring possible uses for Watson, IBM's supercomputer that was famous for beating two human contestants on the game show "Jeopardy" last year.

Online reviews site Yelp (YELP) retreated, falling more than 14% after spiking 64% to top $24 a share in their debut on the New York Stock Exchange Friday.

AOL (AOL) became the latest advertiser to pull advertising from Rush Limbaugh's radio show in response to his comments about a Georgetown law student who advocated healthcare coverage for contraception. AOL shares were flat Monday.

BP (BP) shares were higher Monday, after the British oil giant and plaintiffs involved in the legal battle over the Gulf of Mexico oil spill said Friday they reached an agreement. BP estimated it would have to pay about $7.8 billion in the Deepwater Horizon disaster settlement.

Apple (AAPL, Fortune 500) said in a post on its website that the tech company has "created or supported" some 514,000 jobs in the United States, either through direct employment, the "App economy" or other means. Shares were down more than 2%, however, ahead of the company's highly-anticipated iPad announcement Wednesday.

* Video - iPad 3? iPad 2S? Who cares?

Currencies and commodities: The dollar lost ground against the British pound, the euro and the Japanese yen.

* Take advantage of rising gas prices

Oil for April delivery rose 6 cents to settle at $106.75 a barrel.

Gold futures for April delivery fell $5.90 to settle at $1,703.90 an ounce.

Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury fell, with the yield rising to 2% from 1.99% late Friday.

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Market Update

4:05 pm : Equities were stuck in negative territory all day long, with initial weakness following the announcement that China would target 7.5% growth in 2012, its lowest target since 2004. Also weighing on global equities were disappointing data points out of Europe. Here in the U.S., both ISM Services and factory orders numbers were above expectations, however, they were unable to provoke buying. Stocks hit their lows around mid-day, with the Nasdaq Composite (-0.9%) underperforming the broader S&P 500 (-0.4%) as Apple (AAPL 533.16, -12.02) showed notable intraday weakness, on no apparent news. Some buying interest lifted stocks off their lows this afternoon, finishing their day approximately 0.4% off the lows.

Today's economic data included the February ISM Service reading and January Factory Orders. The ISM Service Index jumped to 57.3 in February from 56.8 in the prior month, surpassing the 57.0 Briefing.com consensus. Factory orders were less exciting. During January they decreased by 1.0%, which is better than the 1.9% decrease that had been widely expected.

Corporate news was relatively light today, but there were a few items worth noting. Shares of American International Group (AIG 30.41, +0.61) finished higher by 1.9% after the company announced it has sold $6 billion worth of ordinary shares of its Asia subsidiary AIA in an effort to repay its federal government bailout. The U.S. Treasury owns 77% of American International Group after its massive $182 billion bailout of the company during the heart of the 2008 financial crisis.

BP (BP 47.96, +0.46) traded higher by 1.0% after the company indicated it has reached a settlement agreement related to Gulf oil spill claims for $7.8 billion. The agreement will compensate individuals and businesses for economic loss and medical claims resulting from the 2010 oil spill. The payment will be made from the $20 billion compensation fund set aside by the company.

Archipelago Learning (ARCL 11.09, +2.05) jumped 22.5% after the company announced it would be acquired for approximately $291 million, or $11.10 per share. The purchase price represents a 23% premium to Friday’s close.

Walgreen (WAG 33.33, +0.64) finished higher by 2.0% despite announcing February same store sales fell 4.6% (-1.4% Retail Metrics Consensus). Total sales for the second quarter of fiscal year 2012 were $18.63 billion, slightly above the $18.53 billion Capital IQ Consensus Estimate).

Treasuries saw modest selling pressure all session long as a loss of 24/32 had the long bond leading the way lower. Meanwhile, a more modest decline of 8/32 dropped the 10-yr to 99 29/32 while its yield flirted with the 2.00% threshold. Despite today’s selling, the yield curve ended the day unchanged at 170 basis points.

There is no economic data scheduled for tomorrow. There are approximately 15 companies scheduled to report earnings tomorrow morning, although, none are market moving reports. Major events to be aware of later this week include the Greek debt swap deadline (Thursday) and the February employment report (Friday), both of which could be broad market volatility catalysts.DJ30 -14.76 NASDAQ -25.71 SP500 -5.30 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1140/1.64 bln/1370 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1231/701.1 mln/1816

3:30 pm : April crude oil ($106.72 +0.04) chopped around the unchanged line in late floor trading, and ended little changed after earlier losses. April natural gas ($2.36 -0.12) continued to trade in a tight downward pattern, extending its losses as the session wore on. Natural gas hit a session low of $2.35, and closed its floor trading just a penny above its lows. April gold ($1704.10 -5.10) and May silver ($33.76 -0.76) both spent the majority of the day in negative territory Silver fell to a session low of $33.56 while gold broke below the $1700.00 level, falling to a low of $1694.40 before paring its losses. May copper ended off $0.04 at $3.86.DJ30 -5.45 NASDAQ -21.53 SP500 -4.15 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1167/1.36 bln/1338 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1249/482.0 mln/1782

3:00 pm : The dollar index has drifted near the 79.30 level all session long as neither bulls nor bears have been able to take control. The euro is higher by 25 pips at 1.3220 despite data in the region mostly missing expectations. Markets seem to be willing to give the single currency the benefit of the doubt until the European Central Bank interest rate decision and the results of the Greek PSI deal are announced on Thursday. The pound is up 30 pips at 1.5860 even after Britain’s Final Services PMI came in below estimates. Action in sterling continues to mimic that of the euro with Thursday’s Bank of England interest rate decision looming large. The yen has rallied to 81.35 per dollar after sellers exhausted near 81.80 during each of the past two sessions. Recent selling of the yen has it lower by almost 600 pips since the beginning of February. The Australian dollar is off 60 pips at 1.0670 after China cut its growth target to 7.5% in 2012. The anticipated slowdown in the middle kingdom will surely hurt the Australian economy, and traders will be closely watching tonight’s Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate decision for clues.DJ30 -22.02 NASDAQ -30.76 SP500 -6.65 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1072/1.23 bln/1419 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1126/433.6 mln/1898

2:30 pm : Both the Nasdaq (-1.0%) and S&P 500 (-0.5%) continue to drift near their worst levels of the session while the Dow (-0.2%) pares its losses.

Walgreen (WAG 33.33, +0.64) is trading higher by 2.0% despite announcing February same store sales fell 4.6% (-1.4% Retail Metrics Consensus). Total sales for the second quarter of fiscal year 2012 were $18.63 billion, slightly above the $18.53 billion Capital IQ Consensus Estimate). DJ30 -23.67 NASDAQ -28.67 SP500 -5.10 NASDAQ Vol 1.15 bln NYSE Vol 408.8 mln

2:00 pm : The major averages remain entrenched in negative territory as a loss of 1.0% has the Nasdaq leading the way lower.

Shares of CME Group (CME 283.18, -6.42) are lower by 2.2% despite the company announcing record clearing volume for its over-the-counter business. For the month of February, the company cleared $150.1 billion in combined over-the-counter interest rate swaps and credit default swaps volume, a 142% increase over the previous record monthly total of $61.9 billion set in November 2011. As of March 2, 2012, the company has cleared more than $400 billion in over-the-counter interest rate swaps and credit default swaps through its multi-asset class clearing solution since launch. Additionally, open interest stands at $196 billion in interest rate swaps and $32.9 billion in credit default swaps.DJ30 -41.36 NASDAQ -32.16 SP500 -8.54 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1017/1.06 bln/1449 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1072/371.6 mln/1930

1:30 pm : Stocks continue to hover above their morning lows in a sideways mid-day range. Intraday news flow has been relatively limited today. A large drop in Apple (AAPL 535.78, -9.40) caught a lot of attention and weighed on the underperforming Nasdaq Composite (-1.0% vs. -0.6% S&P 500), but this Apple move doesn't appear to have been related to any particular news.

There is some earnings news due out after the close, with 11 companies scheduled to report earnings, although none are major names.

Major events to be aware of later this week include the Greek debt swap deadline (Thursday) and the February employment report (Friday), both of which could be broad market volatility catalysts. DJ30 -43.36 NASDAQ -27.28 SP500 -7.58 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1034/981.5 mln/1432 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1087/343.6 mln/1888

1:00 pm : Equities have been mired with losses all session long as the selling began overseas following the announcement that China would target 7.5% growth in 2012, its lowest since 2004. Also weighing on global equities were disappointing data points out of Europe. Here in the U.S., both ISM Services and factory orders numbers were above expectations, however, they were unable to provoke buying.

Shares of American International Group (AIG 30.8, +0.58) are higher by 1.9% after the company announced it has sold $6 billion worth of ordinary shares of its Asia subsidiary AIA in an effort to repay its federal government bailout. The U.S. Treasury owns 77% of American International Group after its massive $182 billion bailout of the company during the heart of the 2008 financial crisis.

BP (BP 48.18, +0.68) is trading higher by 1.4% after the company indicated it has reached a settlement agreement related to Gulf oil spill claims for $7.8 billion. The agreement will compensate individuals and businesses for economic loss and medical claims resulting from the 2010 oil spill. The payment will be made from the $20 billion compensation fund set aside by the company.

Archipelago Learning (ARCL 11.07, +2.03) is higher by 22.5% after the company announced it would be acquired for approximately $291 million, or $11.10 per share. The purchase price represents a 23% premium to Friday’s close.

Treasuries have been under modest selling pressure all session long as a loss of 16/32 has the long bond leading the way lower. Meanwhile, a more modest decline of 6/32 has dropped the 10-yr to 100 01/32 while its yield flirts with the 2.00% threshold. Slight steepening of the yield curve has the 2-10-yr spread wider at 171 bps.

Small losses have the dollar index looking to hold the 79.30 level. Both the euro and the pound are higher by 0.2%, climbing to 1.3220 and 1.5865 respectively. Elsewhere, the yen is gaining against the greenback with today’s buying running it up 81.40 per dollar. DJ30 -63.32 NASDAQ -31.92 SP500 -9.47 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 945/896.4 mln/1499 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 980/313.3 mln/1984

12:30 pm : The major averages continue to hold noticeable losses as all three are down at least 0.5%. A loss of 1.0% has the Nasdaq leading the way lower while the S&P 500 and Dow hold losses of 0.6% and 0.5% respectively.

Shares of Archipelago Learning (ARCL 11.08, +2.04) are higher by 22.6% after the company announced it would be acquired by Plato Learning for approximately $291 million, or $11.10 per share. The purchase price represents a 23% premium to Friday’s close. DJ30 -58.99 NASDAQ -31.87 SP500 -8.76 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 949/824.0 mln/1476 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 995/286.3 mln/1960

12:00 pm : Treasuries have fallen back onto session lows even as equity markets hold sizable losses. The long bond trades down 23/32 at 99 20/32 as sellers remain in control. The 30-yr holds as session lows as bulls have been unable to mount any sort of rally. A decline of 9/32 has dropped the 10-yr to 99 30/32 as its yield holds near the 2.00% threshold. Meanwhile, little change has taken place along the yield curve as the 2-10-yr spread holds at 170 basis points.DJ30 -64.82 NASDAQ -23.96 SP500 -7.79 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 978/734.1 mln/1438 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 995/257.1 mln/1944

11:30 am : The major averages are now decidedly in the red as a the Nasdaq leads the way with a loss of 1.0% while the S&P and Dow outperform with respective losses of 0.7% and 0.6%.

BP (BP 48.16, +0.66) is trading higher by 1.4% after the company indicated it has reached a settlement agreement related to Gulf oil spill claims for $7.8 billion. The agreement will compensate individuals and businesses for economic loss and medical claims resulting from the 2010 oil spill. The payment will be made from the $20 billion compensation fund set aside by the company. DJ30 -70.12 NASDAQ -27.63 SP500 -8.85 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 930/636.5 mln/1472 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 905/225.5 mln/1991

11:00 am : The major averages are off their worst levels of the session, but are still holding sizable losses as all three trade down close to 0.5%.

Shares of American International Group (AIG 30.80, +1.00) are higher by 3.4% after the company announced it has sold $6 billion worth of ordinary shares of its Asia subsidiary AIA in an effort to repay its federal government bailout. The U.S. Treasury owns 77% of American International Group after its massive $182 billion bailout of the company during the heart of the 2008 financial crisis. DJ30 -65.27 NASDAQ -16.82 SP500 -7.17 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 935/500.0 mln/1429 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 901/182.9 mln/1973

10:30 am : Most commodities saw initial weakness this morning following news that China cut its growth target. The dollar was higher, but has since pulled back modestly into negative territory with commodities moving inverse to the dollar fluctuations.

After initially trading lower on the reduced Chinese growth target, April crude oil ($106.30, -0.40) climbed back into the black an hour before floor trading began. Crude hit its session high of $107.42 before falling back below the flat line. April natural gas ($2.51 -0.09) has been trading in negative territory for the entire session. Natural gas hit its electronic trading low of $2.36, and continues to trade near that level a tight consolidative pattern.

April gold ($1700.00, -9.80) started the morning lower, but began moving up towards positive territory after floor trading began, breaking into the black and reaching a session high of $1711.60. However, it has since lost some momentum, and is back in negative territory with modest losses. After spending the majority of electronic trading in the red, May silver ($34.12, -0.40) crossed into positive territory and hit a session high of $34.82. It then also began selling off, and is now back in the red. May copper is down six cents at $3.84.DJ30 -81.09 NASDAQ -17.58 SP500 -7.98 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 786/374.8 mln/1544 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 710/144.4 mln/2112

10:00 am : The ISM Service Index jumped to 57.3 in February from 56.8 in the prior month, surpassing the 57.0 that was expected, on average, among economists polled by Briefing.com. Factory orders were less exciting. During January they decreased by 1.0%, which is better than the 1.9% decrease that had been widely expected.DJ30 -21.76 NASDAQ -6.35 SP500 -3.43 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1003/220.5 mln/1245 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 952/94.7 mln/1797

09:45 am : The major averages are trading near session lows as sellers are in control early. Materials are the worst performing sector, trading down 1.0% while energy and financials are both off 0.6%. Data due out at the top of the hour includes factory orders and ISM Services. DJ30 -25.20 NASDAQ -6.59 SP500 -3.50 NASDAQ Vol 110.3 mln NYSE Vol 60.6 mln

09:11 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -2.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.30. Futures are pointing to a slightly lower open as markets get ready to open for the week. Overseas selling has carried over into U.S. trade after China announced it would target 7.5% GDP in 2012, and following some weaker than expected data in the Eurozone. Data due out this morning includes factory orders and ISM Services, both of which are due out at 10 am ET.

08:58 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -2.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.00. Recent weakness has dropped Treasuries to their worst levels of the morning as sellers have taken control early in the U.S. session. Early gains have been wiped away as maturities across the complex now hold losses. After climbing as high as 100 22/32 the 30-yr bond is now lower by 10/32 at 100 02/32 as the selling has its yield up one basis point at 3.125%. Meanwhile, a modest 5/32 decline in the 10-yr note has its yield holding near 1.99%.

08:28 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -3.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -3.00. It was a sea of red across Asia as markets fell after China announced it would target 7.5% growth in 2012, its slowest pace since 2005. Despite the news, China’s Shanghai Composite (-0.6%) was among the better performers in the region. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (-1.4%) underperformed after AIG announced it was selling its $6 billion worth of AIA shares.

Meanwhile, European markets (FTSE -0.3%, CAC -0.4 %, DAX -0.9%) are lower after data in the region was mostly disappointing. Commodity-related names lead the decline in Britain as Essar Energy and Fresnillo hold losses of 3.2% and 2.4% respectively. Elsewhere, financials are under pressure in Paris with Societe Generale and BNP Paribas both down close to 1.5%. Steelmaker Salzgitter is off 5.6% in Germany after issuing cautious guidance for 2012.

07:59 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -3.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -6.30. Futures are trading lower this morning (S&P futures -4 vs. fair value; DJ futures -29) amid weakness in overseas trading after China cut its economic growth target to 7.5% annually from 8.0%. This news weighed on Asian markets (Nikkei -0.8%, Hang Seng -1.4%, Shanghai Comp -0.6%) and European markets have followed Asia lower (DAX -1.1%, CAC -0.8%, FTSE -0.5%), with additional weakness stemming from weaker-than-expected eurozone PMI data.

Commodities are lower this morning as well, with crude oil -0.61 at 106.09 and gold -13 pts at 1697. The dollar index is -0.1% and the euro is +0.1% vs. the dollar, currently at 1.3210. In U.S. corporate news, AIG announced it is selling AIA shares and expects to use the net proceeds (expected to be approximately $6 billion) to reduce the balance due to the U.S. Department of the Treasury. In other news, reports indicate BP has reached a settlement agreement related to Gulf oil spill clams for $7.8 billion. BP is higher by close to 1%.

Later this morning January Factory Orders and February ISM Services data will be released at 10:00 ET. After the close, 12 companies are scheduled to report earnings, although none are major names.

06:25 am : Nikkei...9698.59...+78.40...-0.80%. Hang Seng...21265.31...-297.00...-1.40%.

06:24 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -5.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -9.00.

06:24 am : FTSE...5886.25...-24.90...-0.40%. DAX...6845.98...-75.40...-1.10%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader, http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader and http://chart.ly/users/wrbtrader

http://www.thestrategylab.com
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