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 Post subject: March 1st Thursday 2012 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +2.90
PostPosted: Thu Mar 01, 2012 11:15 pm 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)

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click on the above image to view today's performance verification

Price Action Trade Performance for Today: +2.90 points or $290 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, all trades were posted real-time in the free #FuturesTrades chat room. You can read today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs for details (e.g. time, price, contract size) about each one of my trades from entry to exit along with price action commentary as the trade traversed in comparison to what's shown in the above image...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=102&t=1155.

To join our free chat room...registration instructions located at a different forum @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=630

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my price action trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our price action trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=150&t=1403

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Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/IMF actions or any important global economic events that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables (key market events) causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that results in swing points and strong continuation price actions. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for my technical analysis. Just as important, these summaries becomes my archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past...something I can not get from my broker statements alone.

U.S. Stock Market Wrap

March 1 (Bloomberg) -- Bloomberg's Deborah Kostroun reports on the performance of the U.S. equity market today. U.S. stocks advanced, sending the Standard & Poor's 500 Index to the highest level since 2008, amid a rally in financial shares and after government data showed that jobless claims declined to a four-year low.

Positive Economic Signals Send Stocks Higher

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click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- U.S. stocks rose modestly Thursday as investors welcomed mostly positive economic news and digested testimony from Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) rose 28 points, or 0.2%, to end at 12,980. The S&P 500 (SPX) added 8 points, or 0.6%, to 1,374. The Nasdaq (COMP) advanced 22 points, or 0.7%, to 2,989.

Stocks opened higher following upbeat reports on initial jobless claims and personal income and spending. But the market pared gains after an index of U.S. manufacturing activity came in weaker than expected.

The ISM manufacturing index was "quite disappointing," said Peter Cardillo, market strategist at Rockwell Global Capital. But the index still signaled expansion in the sector, and other economic indicators Thursday were "consistent with better economic growth," he added.

Investors also welcomed strong sales growth from retailers and auto makers.

Meanwhile, Bernanke warned lawmakers that their short-term policies could put the recovery at risk.

Echoing previous testimony, the central bank chief called the job market "far from normal" and referred to the recovery as "uneven and modest by historical standards."

On Wednesday, Bernanke's remarks dashed hopes that the Fed will continue to offer monetary support to the market, sending U.S. stocks modestly lower.

* Invest in the trend, not in the hype

Elsewhere, worries about the European debt crisis continue to loom in the background. European leaders will gather in Brussels on Thursday for a two-day summit to determine the size of their financial firewall, and to discuss the details of a pact on fiscal discipline.

Euro-area officials tentatively approved a second €130 billion bailout for Greece last week, and the European Central Bank announced Wednesday that it loaned €529.5 billion to European banks through a second long-term refinancing operation.

The close watch on the global oil market and rising gas prices continued Thursday, as gas prices climbed for the 23rd straight day to just below $3.74 a gallon.

* Video - A March madness for stocks too?

Economy: The ISM manufacturing index fell 1.7 points to 52.4 in February. The index, based on a survey of purchasing managers, was expected to have risen to 54.7. Any reading above 50 signals expansion.

Separately, construction spending fell 1% in January, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

Initial jobless claims for the week ended Feb. 25 fell 2,000 to 351,000 -- coming in below expectations.

Personal income rose 0.3% in January, while spending edged up 0.2%. Economists were expecting income and spending to have increased by 0.4% each.

Companies: General Motors (GM, Fortune 500), Ford Motor (F, Fortune 500) and Chrysler Group reported a big jump in February sales.

Analysts and industry executives said it looks like the annual pace of U.S. sales should come in at or near 15 million vehicles when adjusted for seasonal factors. That would be a big jump from the 14.1 million annual sales rate in January and the best pace of sales since March 2008.

Meanwhile, retailers reported February same-store sales growth that beat analysts' expectations, according to preliminary estimates from Thomson Reuters.

Same-store sales for most of the companies Reuters tracks rose 4.7% in February, compared with a forecasted 3.4% rise.

Gap (GAP) shares jumped after the retailer said sales rose 6% in February.
0:00 / 4:47 Recession forecaster: Prepare for a new one

Shares of Wal-Mart (WMT, Fortune 500) lost ground, after the company raised its annual dividend 9% to $1.59 per share.

Shares of Wendy's (WEN) eased after the fast food chain beat earnings estimates by a penny. The company also topped sales estimates.

Grocery chain Kroger's (KR, Fortune 500) stock gained thanks to better-than-expected fourth-quarter results.

World markets: European stocks closed higher. Britain's FTSE 100 (UKX) added 1%, the DAX (DAX) in Germany gained 1.2% and France's CAC 40 (CAC40) ticked up 1.4%.

Asian markets ended lower. The Shanghai Composite (SHCOMP) slid 0.1%, while the Hang Seng (HSI) in Hong Kong dropped 1.4% and Japan's Nikkei (N225) lost 0.2%.

Investors are also digesting indications that China's economy is improving. China's official purchasing managers' index rose to 51 in February from 50.5 the prior month, suggesting that the manufacturing sector is expanding -- albeit slowly.

A separate PMI report from banking company HSBC also showed manufacturing activity edged up last month. But the index reading of 49.6 was just below the 50 threshold for expansion in the sector.

* Check gas prices in your state

Currencies and commodities: The dollar rose against the euro, but was lower versus the British pound and the Japanese yen.

Oil for April delivery rose $1.77 to settle at $108.84 a barrel.

Gold futures for April delivery rose $10.90 to end at $1,722.20 an ounce.

Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury fell, pushing the yield up to 2.05% from 1.98% late Wednesday.

Image

Market Update

4:30 pm : Stocks booked broad gains, but the effort failed to take the major equity averages above the multi-year intraday highs they set yesterday morning.

A reversal yesterday left stocks to suffer varied losses, but participants were back with a bid this morning. The positive ahead of the open persisted amid some tepid data, which showed that initial jobless claims for the week ended February 25 totaled 351,000. That was little changed from the prior week's tally of 353,000 (revised upward from 351,000) and on par with the 355,000 claims count that had been broadly expected.

Monthly personal spending and income numbers proved disappointing. In January spending increased by 0.2%, which is only half of what had been widely expected. Income increased by 0.3%, which is less than the 0.4% increase that had been generally forecasted.

Stocks reacted negatively to news that the ISM Manufacturing Index fell to 52.4 in February from 54.1 in the prior month, contrasting with calls for an improvement to 54.7. The inclination to sell was compounded by news that construction spending during January declined by 0.1%, which clashed with the Briefing.com consensus call for a 1.0% increase.

Fed Chairman Bernanke's semiannual monetary policy report to the Senate Banking Committee was a non-event, given that it reflected the remarks he made yesterday to the House Financial Services Committee.

Despite the early setback, the broad market was able to find support narrowly above its opening level and rebounded from there. The bounce higher was led by financials, which finished with a 1.2% gain as they fought to reclaim the gains that they had forfeited in the prior session, but the move lost momentum once stocks approached the intraday highs set early in the previous session. Although that invoked some afternoon selling, stocks were able to finish on a positive note.

Amid the action the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT 59.53, +0.64) notched a new record high with help from a raft of stronger-than-expected same-store sales results. Wal-Mart (WMT 58.82, -0.26) actually logged a loss after announcing an increase to its dividend.

Advancing Sectors: Financials +1.2%, Materials +1.1%, Energy +0.9%, Tech +0.7%, Consumer Discretionary +0.7%, Health Care +0.5%, Industrials +0.3%, Telecom +0.3%, Utilities +0.2%
Declining Sectors: Consumer Staples -0.2%DJ30 +28.23 NASDAQ +22.08 NQ100 +0.8% R2K +0.5% SP400 +0.8% SP500 +8.41 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1431/1.89 bln/1102 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2017/814 mln/982

3:30 pm : The CRB Index put together a 0.6% gain today. It was helped higher by oil, which closed pit trade with a 1.6% gain at $108.77 per barrel, but has continued its climb in electronic trade so that it trades near $109.50 per barrel. Meanwhile, natural gas prices tumbled 5.4% to $2.47 per MMBtu.

Precious metals put together gains after falling sharply in the prior session. Gold prices settled 1.6% higher at $108.77 per ounce. Silver settled at $35.59 per ounce for a 2.9% gain. DJ30 +14.64 NASDAQ +21.20 SP500 +6.53 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1735/1.45 bln/790 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2105/520 mln/880

3:00 pm : The final hour of trade has arrived. With the close approaching, the Nasdaq is sporting a gain that's almost quadruple what the Dow has achieved today. Interestingly, the Nasdaq's advance today has come without much help from Apple (AAPL 543.72, +1.28), which has balooned into the biggest stock by market cap by climbing aggressively in 2012. The stock's momentum has slowed now that its market cap exceeds a half of a trillion dollars, which is nearly equal to the combined market caps of Microsoft (MSFT 32.26, +0.52), Intel (INTC 26.82, -0.06), and Cisco (CSCO 19.85, -0.03).DJ30 +28.08 NASDAQ +24.67 SP500 +8.44 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1800/1.31 bln/720 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2180/470 mln/785

2:30 pm : A recent flurry of selling knocked stocks off of their afternoon perch, but overall action remains broadly positive with nine of the 10 major sectors still in positive territory. Of the 10, only Consumer Staples are in the red; they're down 0.2% as a group.

Financials remain today's top performers. The sector is still riding a gain greater than 1% as it enters late afternoon trade. The sector's swing higher today comes after its attempt to advance in the prior session was thwarted by a broad market reversal. DJ30 +35.15 NASDAQ +25.38 SP500 +8.44 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1820/1.23 bln/670 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2240/435 mln/720

2:00 pm : The broad market remains at its best level of the day, but has been unable to muster the momentum to take it past the heights set yesterday morning.

Oil prices have rallied higher after a modest advance this morning. The energy component was last quoted at $108.65 per barrel, which makes for a 1.5% gain.

The combination of broad market strength and higher oil prices has helped prop up energy stocks, resulting in a 1.0% gain for the sector. Only Financials (+1.4%) and Materials (+1.2%) are in better shape. DJ30 +57.67 NASDAQ +27.58 SP500 +9.91 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1845/1.13 bln/625 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2270/400 mln/675

1:30 pm : Stocks have moved another leg higher in recent trade. The move has the broad market at its best level of the day, but not quite to the multi-year intraday high that it set yesterday morning.DJ30 +60.62 NASDAQ +28.55 SP500 +10.18 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1820/1.07 bln/650 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2205/380 mln/735

1:00 pm : Stocks worked their way higher in the opening minutes of trade, although market participants hardly celebrated the latest weekly initial jobless claims tally, which totaled 351,000. That was barely changed from the prior week and on par with what had been widely expected. Personal income and spending in January also failed to excite, given their smaller-than-expected increases.

Participants exhibited some quick selling in response to some mid-morning news that the ISM Manufacturing Index made an unexpected drop to 52.4 in February, and that construction spending for January slipped 0.1% when a solid increase that had been broadly forecasted.

However, stocks have successfully shaken off the disappointing data, to trade higher. Financials are out in front with a 1.3% gain, thanks to leadership from investment banks and brokerages and diversified financial services plays.

Retailers are also sporting solid gains following a raft of stronger-than-expected same-store sales reports for February. Their collective strength has the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT 59.78, +0.89) up sharply to a record high. DJ30 +44.54 NASDAQ +23.42 SP500 +7.86 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1775/975 mln/675 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2200/345 mln/702

12:30 pm : Selling against Treasuries has sent the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note back up to 2.05%, which is just shy of its 10-day high. That has widened the spread on the 2-10-year yield curve to roughly 175 basis points. The action comes even though Fed Chairman stated in his recent testimony that he would like for the Fed to hold only Treasury securities at some point.DJ30 +45.22 NASDAQ +21.53 SP500 +7.93 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1740/880 mln/700 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2170/315 mln/730

12:00 pm : Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are back near the session highs set this morning. The Dow has been hampered by relative weakness in blue chips like Merck (MRK 37.83, -0.34) and Procter & Gamble (PG 67.08, -0.54). That said, Pfizer (PFE 21.53, +0.40) and Bank of America (BAC 8.12, +0.15) have been providing support.DJ30 +44.57 NASDAQ +20.11 SP500 +7.75 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1715/775 mln/690 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2125/280 mln/760

11:30 am : Europe's major bourses are in the process of settling trade for the day. Although their gains aren't yet official, it appears that most are booking gains on the order of 1%. Strength there comes amid increased confidence in broader fiscal and financial conditions, as indicated by a pullback in debt yields of countries in the eurozone periphery. For example, the yield on Italy's 10-year Note fell below 5.0% today for the first time since August.DJ30 +27.77 NASDAQ +12.04 SP500 +5.01 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1690/650 mln/685 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2090/235 mln/750

11:00 am : Stocks were able to find support after rolling over in response to some disappointing data, but action has become choppy.

Financials have managed to maintain their gains. As such, the sector is up 1.1% this morning. The action comes in contrast with the prior session, when the sector staged a strong advance in the early going, but ultimately suffered a 0.5% loss after broad market weakness imbued the group.

Retailers are also displaying solid gains today, thanks to a raft of stronger-than-expected same-store sales reports. Their collective strength has the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT 59.48, +0.59) sporting a 1.0% gain. DJ30 +41.96 NASDAQ +14.55 SP500 +5.96 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1655/520 mln/665 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2085/190 mln/735

10:40 am : After reaching highs of 78.93, the dollar index has been losing some steam and hit negative territory in recent activity, giving crude and precious metals a boost.

In the energy space, Apr crude oil has spent most of its session in the black, increasing its gains in early morning trading and recently hitting a new session high of $180.01/barrel. Crude is now +0.6% at $107.71.

Apr natural gas has been in the red all of its session, trading in a tight consolidative pattern. It reached lows of $2.53 in early pit trading. Inventory data was a draw of 82 vs a draw of 80 bcf, causing nat gas to drop a new session low; nat gas is now -5.5% at $2.47.

In metals, Apr gold and May silver rallied sharply moments ago on a pullback in the dollar index, pushing silver to a new session high of $35.47. In current action, both precious metals are near their session highs. Gold is now +0.5% at $1720.50/oz and silver is +1.9% at $35.29/oz. May copper is up 5 cents at $3.93.DJ30 +43.02 NASDAQ +11.01 SP500 +5.57 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1650/476 mln/668 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2079/183 mln/732

10:05 am : Stocks are falling in response to some disappointing data. Specifically, the ISM Manufacturing Index fell to 52.4 in February from 54.1 in the prior month. Economists polled by Briefing.com had expected, on average, that the reading would improve to 54.7.

Additionally, construction spending slipped 0.1% in January. That contrasts with the 1.0% increase that had been broadly forecasted.

Fed Chairman Bernanke's prepared semiannual monetary policy report for the Senate Banking Committee has begun to circulate. He already reported to the House Financial Services Committee yesterday.DJ30 +31.86 NASDAQ +9.94 SP500 +3.31 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1585/145 mln/585 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2075/75 mln/595

09:45 am : The major market averages are up solidly this morning. The move has been led by financial issues, which are collectively up 0.9%. That makes them this morning's top performing sector. Diversified bank and financial services stocks like Citigroup (C 33.93, +0.61) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM 39.72, +0.48) are helping drive the space higher. Financials also led early gains in the prior session, but the sector's strength was ultimately undermined by broad market weakness.DJ30 +48.17 NASDAQ +9.19 SP500 +4.77 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +3.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +11.30. Market participants continue to provide support to stock futures, such that the cash market appears poised for a positive open. The bid comes amid renewed strength in Europe, where the region's major bourses have worked their way higher. Broad strength there has the EuroStoxx 50 sporting a gain of almost 1%.

Monthly same-store sales from retailers have been generally pleasing in that the vast majority of names covered by Briefing.com posted numbers that have exceeded expectations. Retail giant Wal-Mart (WMT 59.45, +0.37) has garnered attention for its decision to raise its quarterly dividend to $0.3975 per share from $0.365 per share. Note: ticker quote reflects primarket price.

Economic data hasn't been all that exciting, though. Weekly initial jobless claims were little changed from the prior week and on par with what had been widely expected. Personal income and spending during January increased at a slower pace than had been predicted. Still on tap, the latest ISM Manufacturing Index and monthly construction spending numbers come at 10:00 AM ET. Fed Chairman Bernanke will deliver his semiannual monetary policy report to the Senate Banking Committee at 10:00 AM ET, but his comments are unlikely to deviate from those delivered to the House Financial Services Committee yesterday.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +3.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +10.30. Commodities are mixed this morning, leaving the CRB Index to trade fractionally below the flat line. Oil prices are up 0.3% to $107.45 per barrel in the opening minutes of pit trade, but natural gas prices are down 2.3% to $2.65 per MMBtu. Weekly natural gas inventory numbers are due at 10:30 AM ET. As for precious metals, gold prices are down 0.1% to $1710 per ounce, but silver is sporting a 0.6% gain at $34.87 per ounce after it slumped 7.0% yesterday.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +3.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +10.50. Stock futures haven't shown much of a reaction to a couple of doses of data. Initial jobless claims for the week ended February 25 totaled 351,000, which is little changed from the prior week's tally of 353,000 (revised upward from 351,000). It's also in stride with the count of 355,000 claims that had been expected, on average, among economists polled by Briefing.com. Continuing claims moved marginally lower to 3.402 million from 3.404 million. Separately, personal spending in January increased by 0.2%, which is only half of what had been widely expected. Personal income increased by 0.3%, which is less than the 0.4% increase that had been generally forecasted.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +4.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +12.00. Stocks logged losses yesterday, but market participants are offering a bid this morning. Support comes in conjunction with gains in Europe. Despite strength across the Atlantic, the euro has come under renewed selling pressure, resulting in an early loss of about 0.2% against the dollar. The euro's decline comes after it tumbled roughly 1% against the greenback yesterday.

Today's economic calendar features weekly initial jobless claims, which are due at the bottom of the hour. Monthly personal income and spending numbers will also be released then. The latest ISM Manufacturing Index and monthly construction spending numbers come at 10:00 AM ET. Fed Chairman Bernanke will deliver his semiannual monetary policy report to the Senate Banking Committee at 10:00 AM ET, but his comments are unlikely to deviate from those delivered to the House Financial Services Committee yesterday.

06:45 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +2.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +10.00.

06:45 am : Nikkei...9707.37...-15.90...-0.20%. Hang Seng...21387.96...-292.10...-1.40%.

06:45 am : FTSE...5902.08...+30.60...+0.50%. DAX...6888.26...+32.20...+0.50%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader, http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader and http://chart.ly/users/wrbtrader

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