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 Post subject: February 28th Tuesday 2012 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +10.30
PostPosted: Tue Feb 28, 2012 8:13 pm 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)

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click on the above image to view today's performance verification

Price Action Trade Performance for Today: +10.30 points or $1030 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, all trades were posted real-time in the free #FuturesTrades chat room. You can read today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs for details (e.g. time, price, contract size) about each one of my trades from entry to exit along with price action commentary as the trade traversed in comparison to what's shown in the above image...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=101&t=1151.

To join our free chat room...registration instructions located at a different forum @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=630

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my price action trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our price action trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=149&t=1370

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Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/IMF actions or any important global economic events that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables (key market events) causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that results in swing points and strong continuation price actions. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for my technical analysis. Just as important, these summaries becomes my archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past...something I can not get from my broker statements alone.

Dow Closes Above 13,000

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click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- U.S. stocks closed at multi-year highs, as investors weighed a small pullback in oil prices and improving consumer confidence against a worse-than-expected drop in durable goods orders.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) closed above 13,000 for the first time since May 19, 2008, after narrowly missing that finish line for the past several trading days. The DJIA added 24 points, or 0.2%. While the 13,000 level is not considered technically significant, it is a psychological milestone.

The S&P 500 (SPX) added 5 points, or 0.3%, and the Nasdaq (COMP) rose 21 points, or 0.7%. Shares of Nasdaq-listed Apple hit record highs too.

Though modest, the gains were enough to push the S&P 500 to its highest levels since June 2008. The Nasdaq is trading at its highest point since December 2000.

Crude futures eased for a second straight day Tuesday, pushing oil prices down more than $2. That dampened worries that higher gas prices could cause the economic recovery to stall by forcing consumers to change their spending habits.

Investors have been keeping a close watch on the oil market, where crude futures rose almost 9% in seven consecutive days, settling at a nine-month high above $109 a barrel Friday, amid concerns about increased tensions between Iran and Western powers.

The rise in oil prices has translated into higher gas prices, with the national average rising for 21 straight days.

Stocks also picked up some momentum after the Conference Board reported a big spike in consumer sentiment in February, with the index now at a 1-year high.

However, the optimism was hit by a 4% plunge in durable goods orders, the biggest drop in three years.

"Unquestionably, it [the durables orders] looks bad, but the context is important," noted Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics. "We see no evidence of underlying slowing in the industrial economy, so we look for a rebound in February and the re-emergence of the upward trend over the next couple of months."

On Monday, U.S. stocks ended little changed, as investors weighed an upbeat housing report against worries about the debt crisis in Europe and rising gas prices.
0:00 / 2:40 How to spend less on gas

Economy: The Conference Board's consumer confidence index rose in February to the highest level in a year. The index climbed to 70.8 from 61.5 in January. Economists were expecting the index to rise slightly to 63.5.

Durable goods orders tumbled 4% in January, following a 3.2% increase the month before. Analysts were expecting orders to have slipped 1.3% during the month.

National home prices fell 4% in the fourth quarter of 2011, putting them back at levels last seen in mid-2002, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller national home price index. That's the fifth consecutive annual loss and the biggest decline since 2008, when markets were in freefall and prices plummeted more than 18%.
Why JPMorgan Chase has become a Wall Street laggard

Companies: Shares of Apple (AAPL, Fortune 500) rose to an all-time high above $530 a share Tuesday. The company is expected to announce the iPad 3 at a "special event" in California next week.

Shares of AutoZone (AZO, Fortune 500) rose Tuesday, after the auto parts retailer's fourth-quarter earnings and sales figures rose and topped analyst expectations. Same-store sales at AutoZone improved almost 6% during the last quarter of 2011.

Shares of Apollo Group (APOL, Fortune 500) tumbled after the operator of for-profit University of Phoenix issued a downbeat outlook for 2012, forecasting sluggish growth in new degree enrollment during the second quarter. Shares of fellow for-profit college DeVry (DV) also fell.

Cablevision (CVC, Fortune 500) shares fell after the cable provider posted earnings that were a penny shy of expectations, but sales that were a bit higher than estimates.

Priceline.com (PCLN) shares spiked after the online travel company beat earnings and revenue expectations late Monday, thanks to strong growth in international hotel bookings.

Dreamworks Animation (DWA) missed earnings estimates when it reported corporate results after the bell Tuesday. Dreamworks' shares fell in aftermarket trading.
0:00 / 1:35 Priceline soars sans Shatner

World markets: European stocks closed higher. Britain's FTSE 100 (UKX) ticked up 0.2%, the DAX (DAX) in Germany rose 0.6% and France's CAC 40 (CAC40) added 0.4%.

Investors will continue to watch for developments out of Europe, amid ongoing nervousness about the region's debt crisis.

On Monday, the German Parliament approved the nation's contribution to a second bailout for Greece. Later in the day, S&P downgraded Greece's credit rating to "selective default" after the government took legal steps to impose losses on all holders of Greek government bonds.

Investors are growing optimistic ahead of the European Central Bank's second so-called long-term refinancing operation (LTRO) on Wednesday. The central bank will hold its second auction to allow banks to take three-year loans at low interest rates, bolstering their balance sheets.

In its first auction in December, banks borrowed €489 billion from the ECB. The "flood of money" sparked a rally in stock markets, noted Global Forex Trading's Kathy Lien, and she says this round of stimulus could also be a boon for stocks.

Most analysts are expecting the size of the ECB's refinancing stimulus to be even larger on Wednesday, with a high estimate of €1 trillion.

Asian markets ended with solid gains. The Shanghai Composite (SHCOMP) closed up 0.2%, the Hang Seng (HSI) in Hong Kong spiked 1.7% and Japan's Nikkei (N225) increased 0.9%.

Currencies and commodities: The dollar fell against the euro and the British pound but rose versus the Japanese yen.
Gas prices steady climb

Oil for April delivery fell $2.01 to settle at $106.55 a barrel.

Gold futures for April delivery rose $13.50 to end at $1,788.40 an ounce.

Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury fell, pushing the yield up to 1.94% from 1.92% late Monday.

Image

Market Update

4:30 pm : Continued support from buyers into the close resulted in strong finishes for the major equity averages. Specifically, the S&P 500 booked its best close since 2008; the Dow settle above the 13,000 for the first time since 2008, and; the Nasdaq notched another closing high that reaches back more than a decade.

Solid gains by the major bourses abroad helped promote buying interest ahead of the US open, but the tone was undermined by news that durable goods orders fell in January by 4.0% when a 1.4% decline had been broadly expected to follow an upwardly revised 3.2% increase in the prior month. Excluding transportation, durable goods orders declined during January by 3.2%, which contrasts sharply with the 0.2% increase that many economists had expected to follow a downwardly revised increase of 2.1% in the prior month.

Buying interest was revived by the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index, which spiked in February to 70.8 from 61.5 in the prior month. Many had expected only a modest improvement to 62.5.

Stocks lost their direction for a time, but the support for the broad market at the neutral line brought buyers back into the fold. Some afternoon profit taking forced the S&P 500 and Dow to test the neutral line again, but continued support there gave way to a late rebound that helped stocks reclaim most of their gains.

Tech proved to be a primary source of leadership. The sector, which is the largest by market weight, scored a 0.9% gain with help from semiconductor and equipment stocks. Their advance also helped the Nasdaq outperform its counterparts.

Apple (AAPL 535.41, +9.65) was a primary driver of the Nasdaq's advance today. The stock's move to a new record high has resulted in a market cap of almost a half trillion dollars, which is greater than any other company.

Airline stocks ascended to give the NYSE Arcaa Airline Index a gain greater than 2%. Their climb was helped by a 1.8% drop in oil prices, which settled pit trade at $106.55 per barrel.

Elsewhere in the commodity complex, gold prices gained 0.8% to close pit trade at $1788.30 per ounce. Along the way the yellow metal cleared $1790 per ounce to set a three-month high. Silver prices surged 4.5% to $37.17 per ounce, which makes for a new multi-month closing high.

In the backdrop, the dollar traded with weakness all day. By the closing bell it trailed a collection of competing currencies by about 0.5%.

Advancing Sectors: Tech +0.9%, Consumer Discretionary +0.7%, Health Care +0.5%, Consumer Staples +0.3%, Telecom +0.3%, Materials +0.2%, Financials +0.2%
Declining Sectors: Industrials -0.1%, Energy -0.2%, Utilities -0.4%DJ30 +23.61 NASDAQ +20.60 NQ100 +1.0% R2K -0.4% SP400 -0.2% SP500 +4.59 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1207/1.79 bln/1324 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1544/755 mln/1446

3:30 pm : Energy prices succumbed to renewed selling pressure this session. Their slide settled with oil down 1.8% at $106.55 per barrel and natural gas down 3.1% at $2.52 per MMBtu.

In contrast, precious metals performed well in that gold prices gained 0.8% to close pit trade at $1788.30 per ounce. Along the way it cleared $1790 per ounce to set a three-month high. More impressive still, silver prices surged 4.5% to $37.17 per ounce, which makes for a new multi-month closing high.

Gains by precious metals weren't enough to prop up the CRB Index, however. Instead, the Index logged a 0.6% loss. DJ30 +28.53 NASDAQ +18.95 SP500 +4.26 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1130/1.38 bln/1390 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1415/465 mln/1575

3:00 pm : Stocks have managed to build on a recent rebound effort, but the major equity averages remain below their best levels of the day as they enter the final hour of the session. Meanwhile, the Dollar Index has declined to a session low so that it now trades with a 0.4% loss.

Participation remains paltry in that share volume on the NYSE isn't even close to a half billion. To be fair, though, share volume has been lacking for several months. DJ30 +19.07 NASDAQ +12.77 SP500 +2.39 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1100/1.30 bln/1400 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1365/435 mln/1600

2:30 pm : Stocks are back at the flat line after attempting to reclaim gains. The downturn has been broad based, but without any real headline or catalyst to account for the move. That has prompted some market pundits to dismiss the move as the result of profit taking.

Financials have had all of their gains dashed. The sector was up solidly around midsession, but now the group is grappling with a 0.1% loss. It is accompanied in negative territory by Industrials (-0.3%), Energy (-0.5%), and Utilities (-0.6%). DJ30 +1.70 NASDAQ +6.80 SP500 +0.32 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1080/1.19 bln/1425 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1360/400 mln/1605

2:00 pm : A bout of selling has cut down the major market averages. The effort actually caused the Dow and S&P 500 to come in contact with the flat line, but buyers have shown support there for the second time today.

Meanwhile, oil prices have extended their afternoon descent. The energy component was last quoted with a 1.8% loss at $106.60 per barrel. Oil's pullback has helped shares of airlines hold on to strong gains -- the Dow Jones US Airlines Index is up almost 2% -- despite the broad market's recent decline. DJ30 +3.90 NASDAQ +8.81 SP500 +0.90 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1265/1.06 bln/1225 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1510/355 mln/1430

1:30 pm : Oil prices have come under increased pressure in recent trade. The selling effort has the energy component at a session low of $107.35 per barrel, which makes for a 1.1% loss.

The move lower has imbued energy stocks. In turn, the sector has fallen to an afternoon low so that it now trades with a 0.2% loss. Oil and gas exploration plays are under some of the sharpest pressure, resulting in a 1% loss for the SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Explore & Production ETF (XOP 60.49, -0.68). DJ30 +24.59 NASDAQ +19.18 SP500 +3.57 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1380/965 mln/1090 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1675/325 mln/1265

1:00 pm : Solid gains have the broad market at its best level in a few years, but the Nasdaq is outperforming its counterparts with help from tech stocks.

A positive tone to premarket trade was undermined by a disappointing durable goods orders report that featured surprisingly weak figures for total orders and orders less transportation. Shortly after the opening bell traders were treated to a better-than-expected Consumer Confidence Index of 70.8 for February.

The Confidence Index initially spurred a flurry of buying that was quickly challenged. The action took both the S&P 500 and the Dow back to the neutral line, but support there provided the floor for a rebound. Now the Dow is back above the psychologically significant 13,000 line and the S&P 500 is at its best level since 2008.

Tech has been the primary driver behind today's advance. The largest sector by market weight currently boasts a 0.8% gain. Semiconductor and semiconductor equipment stocks have been sharp all session, but so has heavyweight Apple (AAPL 533.83, +8.07), which is at a new record high. Apple's advance over the past couple of months has made it the most valuable company by market cap, which is approaching a half trillion dollars. DJ30 +29.48 NASDAQ +21.99 SP500 +4.77 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1320/890 mln/1115 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1575/300 mln/1345

12:30 pm : The dollar has spent the session moving sideways with a loss of about 0.3% against a basket of major foreign currencies. That decline has essentially offset the gain that it scored in the prior session.

The dollar's decline today has come primarily against the euro and the sterling pound. The euro was last quoted with a 0.3% gain at $1.345, which is only narrowly below the two-month high that it set late last week. Meanwhile, Britain's sterling pound is also up 0.3%, but trading at $1.588, which puts it in touch with its 200-day moving average. DJ30 +24.41 NASDAQ +18.72 SP500 +3.83 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1370/825 mln/1035 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1610/280 mln/1300

12:00 pm : Although the major equity averages have eased off of their session highs, the Financial sector is sitting at its best level of the day and sporting a 0.5% gain. Financials collectively climbed to a gain of almost 1% in the prior session.

For the second straight session financials are being driven higher by banking plays and diversified financial services issues. Investment banking and brokerage plays are also contributing to the effort. As such, shares of Goldman Sachs (GS 118.40, +2.52) are up more than 2% to trade at a new multi-month high. DJ30 +26.75 NASDAQ +19.51 SP500 +4.65 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1425/715 mln/970 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1710/245 mln/1165

11:30 am : Outsized gains by tech stocks have helped the Nasdaq distance itself from its counterparts so that its gain is now double that of the Dow. Heavyweight Apple (AAPL 532.32, +6.56) has been a source of strength as the stock works its way to a new record high. The advance by AAPL shares over the past couple of months has made the company the most valuable by market cap.

Now in second place, Exxon Mobil (XOM 87.19, -0.04) has a market cap that trails Apple's near half trillion dollar market cap by more than $80 billion. DJ30 +33.26 NASDAQ +20.59 SP500 +4.94 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1445/650 mln/925 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1695/220 mln/1150

11:00 am : Stocks staged a strong move higher on the back of a surprisingly strong Consumer Confidence Index, but those gains were challenged by sellers, who took the broad market back to the flat line before buyers redoubled their efforts to take stocks back to modest gains.

Tech has become a source of leadership. The largest sector by market weight is now boasting a 0.7% gain, which is greater than what any other sector has achieved.

Among tech issues, semiconductor and semiconductor equipment plays are standing out for their strength. Collective gains in the group have the Semiconductors HOLDRS ETF (SMH 35.09, +0.55) up more than 1.5% to a new multi-month high. DJ30 +16.80 NASDAQ +17.89 SP500 +3.30 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1465/490 mln/845 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1720/170 mln/1085

10:35 am : The dollar index has been in the red all session in a tight pattern. However, it has been inching back up during the last hour to hit 78.41, putting pressure on the commodities space.

In the energy space, Apr crude oil has spent the majority of its session in negative territory, and further extended losses on a notable sell-off right before floor trading opened, which pulled it down to $107.62. There's been some notable volatility within the last hour, which caused crude to rally well above the $108 mark and into positive territory and pull back just as fast. Currently, crude is unchanged at $108.54/barrel.

Apr natural gas traded near the flat line during its overnight session in a tight consolidative pattern. In early morning action, it began a steady decline which caused it to recently hit a new session low of $2.52. It's now just above that low, currently at $2.53/MMBtu, down 2.7%

In metals, Apr gold and May silver rallied to new session highs (Gold $1786.50, silver $36.49) and are just under those highs in current activity. Gold is +0.6% at $1785.40/oz, while silver is +2.4% at $36.47/oz.DJ30 +21.61 NASDAQ +18.57 SP500 +3.75 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1402/467 mln/904 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1576/168 mln/1227

10:00 am : A flurry of buying interest has followed a better-than-expected reading on consumer confidence. The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index for February spiked to 70.8 from 61.5 in the prior month. Economists polled by Briefing.com had expected, on average, a reading of only 62.5.DJ30 +26.56 NASDAQ +13.63 SP500 +3.80 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1060/135 mln/1040 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1155/68 mln/1475

09:45 am : The major equity averages are mired near the neutral line this morning. That's mostly because underlying action is mixed.

Financials were top performers in the prior session, but this morning the sector has slipped to a modest loss. Energy stocks continue to wrestle with selling, resulting in a 0.3% decline for the group. As for tech, the largest sector by market weight, it has managed to muster a 0.3% gain.

The top of the hour brings the Conference Board's latest Consumer Confidence Index. The consensus among economists polled by Briefing.com calls for a reading of 62.5 after a reading of 61.1 was printed in the prior report. DJ30 -4.81 NASDAQ +5.56 SP500 +0.14 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +2.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.80. Stock futures have eased off of their morning highs and now cling to a narrow lead over fair value. Their move to the neutral line comes after market participants were dealt a disappointing durable goods orders report that featured surprisingly weak figures for total orders and orders less transportation. It was also recently learned that the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index fell 4.0% during December when a more moderate decline of 3.6% had been expected to follow the 3.7% drop posted in the prior month. Still on tap for today is the latest Consumer Confidence Index, which will be posted at 10:00 AM ET.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +2.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.30. Mixed action between energy prices and precious metals prices has kept the CRB Index mired near the neutral line this morning. Crude oil prices are down 0.4% to $108.15 per barrel in early pit trade. Their pullback comes as an extension of the slide it suffered in the prior session. Natural gas prices are also being pared, but more aggressively. The energy component was last quoted at $2.65 per MMBtu for a 2.3% loss. Precious metals have attracted buying interest, such that gold has gained 0.5% to trade at $1783.40 per ounce while silver sports a 1.8% gain at $36.17 per ounce.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +3.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +8.00. Stock futures are still up against fair value, but they experienced a slip in response to the latest durable goods orders data. Durable goods orders fell in January by 4.0%, which is worse than the 1.4% decline that had been expected, on average, among economists polled by Briefing.com. The surprisingly sharp decline comes after durable goods orders for the prior month had increased by an upwardly revised 3.2%. Excluding transportation, durable goods orders declined during January by 3.2%, which contrasts sharply with the 0.2% increase that had been broadly expected to follow a downwardly revised increase of 2.1% in the prior month.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +5.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +9.80. For the third time in five sessions the Dow traded above 13,000, but failed to settle above the psychologically significant line. Despite such difficulty, buyers do not yet appear ready to back down. As such, a modest bid has helped lift broad market stock futures this morning. The upside bias has been supported by strength abroad and a positive reaction to the latest round of debt sales in Italy.

An appetite for risk is also pressuring the dollar, which is presently down about 0.3% against a basket of major foreign currencies after it had traded higher in the prior session. Meanwhile, oil prices are holding near unchanged at $108.45 per barrel in electronic trade.

Monthly durable goods orders data are due at the bottom of the hour. The latest S&P/Case-Shiller Housing Price Index will be released at 9:00 AM ET. At 10:00 AM ET the Conference Board will make available its monthly Consumer Confidence Index.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader, http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader and http://chart.ly/users/wrbtrader

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