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 Post subject: February 14th Tuesday 2012 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +13.50
PostPosted: Wed Feb 15, 2012 12:36 am 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)

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click on the above image to view today's performance verification

Price Action Trade Performance for Today: +13.50 points or $1350 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, all trades were posted real-time in the free #FuturesTrades chat room. Today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs provides details (e.g. time, price, contract size) about each one of my trades from entry to exit along with price action commentary as the trade traversed...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=101&t=1141.

To join our free chat room...registration instructions located at a different forum @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=630

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my price action trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our price action trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=149&t=1370

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Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/IMF actions or any important global economic events that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables (key market events) causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that results in swing points and strong continuation price actions. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for my technical analysis. Just as important, these summaries becomes my archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past...something I can not get from my broker statements alone.

Stocks Rebound, End Mixed

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click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- U.S. stocks recovered from earlier losses late Tuesday to closed mixed amid an uncertain situation in Greece, where political leaders are scrambling to secure a second bailout and avoid a default.

After falling more than 90 points earlier in the day, the Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) rose 4 points, or less than 0.1%, to end at 12,878. The S&P 500 (SPX) fell 1 point, or 0.1%, to 1,350. The Nasdaq (COMP) edged up less than 1 point to 2,932.

The rebound came after reports said Antonis Samaras, who leads Greece's conservative New Democracy party, will deliver a "letter of commitment" to euro area officials Wednesday.

The reports eased fears that talks in Athens over a second bailout are on the verge of falling apart. That forced some traders to unwind bets the market would fall further, said Joseph Saluzzi, co-head of equity trading at Themis Trading.

"A negative rumor came out in the afternoon and knocked the market down a bit, then a positive rumor came out late in the day, timed very appropriately, and the shorts got squeezed," said Saluzzi.

Stocks came under pressure earlier in the day after Jean-Claude Juncker, who heads the Eurogroup of eurozone finance ministers, canceled a Wednesday meeting to discuss a second bailout for Greece, announcing plans to hold a conference call instead. The ministers are set to hold their next official meeting March 20.

* Greece: Bad news keeps piling up

The delay is necessary to complete "further technical work" on the details of Greece's economic reform program, including a €325 million budget shortfall, according to Juncker.

In addition, Juncker said Greek political leaders have yet to provide assurances that the reforms will be implemented after elections are held later this year.

At issue is a €130 billion bailout, which Greece is negotiating with lenders at the European Union, International Monetary Fund and European Central Bank. Greece needs to secure additional bailout funds to avoid defaulting on a €14.5 billion bond redemption in March.

Meanwhile, stocks were also pressured by a U.S. government report that said overall retail sales edged higher in January, but the increase was smaller than expected as auto sales fell sharply. In addition, retail sales growth for the preceding two months was revised lower.

Stocks rose on the Greece austerity news Monday, but the gains were modest as worries about the fate of the debt-riddled nation continue to dominate.

World markets: European stocks closed lower. Britain's FTSE 100 (UKX) eased 0.2% and the DAX (DAX) in Germany lost 0.3%, while France's CAC 40 (CAC40) fell 0.4%.

Late Monday, Moody's downgraded six eurozone countries -- Italy, Malta, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia and Spain -- and the credit rating agency also warned that it may cut the outlooks for Aaa-rated Austria, France and the United Kingdom to "negative."

Moody's said the move reflects uncertainty about proposed fiscal reforms in the eurozone, the adequacy of the region's bailout resources and its weak economic outlook. But analysts said the downgrades could have been worse.

"Not quite the St. Valentine's Day Massacre, more of a drive-by shooting from Moody's as they amended ratings on nine European sovereigns," said Gary Jenkins, market analyst at Swordfish Research.

Asian markets ended mixed. The Shanghai Composite (SHCOMP) fell 0.3% while the Hang Seng (HSI) in Hong Kong rose 0.2%. An unexpected step by the Bank of Japan to ease its monetary policy sent the Nikkei (N225) higher by 0.6%.

Japan's central bank said it would expand its asset-purchase program to ¥65 trillion from ¥55 trillion by boosting its purchases of Japanese government bonds. The Bank of Japan also set an inflation target of 1%.

* Our love-hate relationship with China

President Obama On Wednesday welcomed China's Vice President Xi Jinping for a two-day visit to Washington.

Economy: Retail sales were up 0.4% in January compared to December, the Commerce Department reported.

Sales were expected to have risen by 0.8%, according to a survey of economists by Briefing.com.

A surprise 1.1% drop in auto sales put a crimp in the overall advance. Excluding auto sales, retail sales rose 0.7% in the latest report.

* Video - Soros: Deregulation led to collapse

The report revised December data lower, suggesting an even weaker holiday shopping season than previously reported. Overall spending was revised down to essentially no gain after a 0.1% increase in the initial report last month, and there is now a 0.5% drop in spending excluding autos.

"The retail sales number was the big news today," said Dan Greenhaus, market strategist at BTIG. While the report was not necessarily a surprise, it showed that "the consumer remains constrained," he added.

On Capitol Hill, the Senate finance and budget committees will discuss President Obama's budget proposal.

Companies: Shares of Michael Kors (KORS) surged after the fashion label posted better-than-expected fiscal third-quarter earnings and revenue, and also issued upbeat guidance for the fourth quarter.

Zipcar (ZIP), which made its stock market debut last April, posted a profit of $3.9 million, as revenues rose 21% to $62.9 million and total membership jumped 25% during the quarter.

Masco (MAS, Fortune 500) shares plunged after the home improvement and building products maker reported a narrower quarterly loss, but missed analysts' expectations.

Goodyear Tire (GT, Fortune 500) shares sank after the company reported a larger-than-expected quarterly loss.

Shares of Hospira (HSP) rose after the maker of injectable drug technologies reported quarterly results that beat analysts' expectations.

Watson (WPI), a maker of generic drugs, also reported better-than-expected quarterly results, sending its shares higher.

After the market closed, Zynga (ZNGA) reported a net loss in its first quarterly report as a public company, even as sales rose.

Currencies and commodities: The dollar fell against the euro and the British pound, but rose versus Japanese yen.

Oil for March delivery fell 17 cents to settle at $101.74 a barrel.

Gold futures for April delivery fell $7.20 to end at $1,717.70 an ounce.

Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury was higher, with the yield falling to 1.92% from 1.99% late Monday.

Image

Market Update

4:30 pm : Stocks staged a late rally that left the Dow and Nasdaq to finish at the neutral line and the S&P 500 to settle with only a fractional loss after all three had spent the session wrestling with selling pressure.

Market participants applied pressure to stocks in the wake of news that analysts at Moody's downgraded the debt ratings of several countries in the eurozone periphery. They also issued negative outlooks on France, Austria, and the United Kingdom. The headline acted as a reminder of the precarious conditions that persist in the eurozone even as efforts to restore conditions in flagging Greece continue.

Monthly retail sales were mixed. Overall retail sales for January were up 0.4%, but that's only half of the 0.8% increase that had been broadly expected to follow the flat rate posted for the prior month. Excluding autos, retail sales climbed by 0.7% to exceed the 0.5% increase that had been forecasted to follow a downwardly revised 0.5% decline in the prior month.

Export and import price data showed too little movement for traders to consider worthy of their attention. Business inventory data for December also failed to inspire; overall inventories increased by 0.4%, which is slightly less than the 0.5% increase that had been broadly anticipated.

Early losses were broad, but the stock market's slide was hardly steep. However, sellers were enticed to redouble their efforts with every failed rebound effort by the broad market. That trend took stocks to session lows late in the day, but without the command of any headline or catalyst buyers stepped in with some strong bidding once stocks stabilized narrowly beneath the depths set in the prior session.

The late squeeze higher helped every sector cut its loss. Still, both financials and materials stocks suffered collective losses slightly greater than 1%. The two groups lagged all session.

A lack of share volume likely made the stock market's upward move a little easier, given that individual bids carry greater relative weight on lightly traded sessions. In fact, during the final 30 minutes of trade share volume on the NYSE surged from less than a half billion shares to almost 750 million shares. Although that final tally is still quite paltry, it reflects a near 50% surge in share volume during the final leg of trade.

The greenback staged a strong advance today, resulting in a 0.6% gain for the Dollar Index. Most of that move is owed to a weaker yen, which tumbled so that its exchange rate climbed more than 1% to 78.40 yen per dollar following the decision of Japan's central bank to increase the size of its asset purchase program by about 18% to 65 trillion yen from 55 trillion yen.

Advancing Sectors: Consumer Staples +0.4%, Health Care +0.3%, Utilities +0.2%, Energy +0.2%, Tech +0.2%
Declining Sectors: Telecom -0.1%, Consumer Discretionary -0.1%, Industrials -0.3%, Financials -1.1%, Materials -1.3%DJ30 +4.24 NASDAQ +0.44 NQ100 +0.2% R2K -0.5% SP400 -0.1% SP500 -1.27 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 967/2.10 bln/1570 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1088/744 mln/1904

3:30 pm : Most major commodities closed in mixed fashion, leaving the CRB Index to finish the day at the flat line.

Oil prices surrendered gains to trade in the red during early afternoon action, but the commodity was able to climb back into positive territory to finish pit trade with a 0.5% gain at $100.81 per barrel. Natural gas prices rallied aggressively to $2.53 per MMBtu for a 4.1% gain.

Precious metals prices were clipped for losses. Specifically, gold settled at $1717.70 per ounce for a 0.4% loss, while silver settled with a 0.9% loss at $33.37 per ounce. DJ30 -55.93 NASDAQ -14.74 SP500 -8.05 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 780/1.68 bln/1730 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 815/470 mln/2165

3:00 pm : With only an hour left in today's trade stocks are trying to make a move up from their session lows. There aren't any signs of leadership driving the move, though.

Consistent with the trends of the past few months there is hardly any share volume behind today's action. In fact, far less than a half billion shares have exchanged hands on the NYSE today. DJ30 -64.52 NASDAQ -15.96 SP500 -8.43 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 755/1.56 bln/1755 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 755/435 mln/2215

2:30 pm : Stocks have descended to new session lows. The drop comes without any catalyst or headline, but follows what has been a futile struggle by stocks to fight their way through today's selling pressure.

All 10 major sectors are now in negative territory. Financials, off by nearly 2%, remain in the worst shape, but materials stocks aren't far behind. The slide by the materials sector has been led by metals plays like U.S. Steel (X 27.54, -1.62) and Freeport McMoRan (FCX 42.82, -1.84). DJ30 -82.25 NASDAQ -17.85 SP500 -10.15 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 830/1.45 bln/1665 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 845/390 mln/2100

2:00 pm : The stock market continues to chop along in negative territory. Weakness, although moderate, has been widespread since the open.

With stocks stuck in a funk, traditional safe havens like the dollar and Treasuries are attracting buying interest. The greenback's advance against a collection of competing currencies has the Dollar Index up 0.7%. Meanwhile, the move by Treasuries has the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note moving closer to 1.90%. DJ30 -44.32 NASDAQ -11.62 SP500 -6.08 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 805/1.35 bln/1685 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 815/365 mln/2105

1:30 pm : Stocks recently fell to fresh session lows, but have begun to bounce back. The effort has been gradual, however. As such, stocks continue to contend with modest losses.DJ30 -55.82 NASDAQ -15.93 SP500 -7.49 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 720/1.19 bln/1735 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 740/330 mln/2180

1:00 pm : The major market averages have spent the entire session wrestling with modest losses, but the dollar has staged an impressive advance.

News that analysts at Moody's downgraded the debt ratings of a handful of countries in the eurozone periphery and placed negative outlooks on the likes of France, Austria, and the United Kingdom dampened sentiment this morning, just a day after market participants applauded the approval of new austerity measures by Greece's parliament.

Early traders were also uninspired by January retail sales results, which showed a 0.4% increase in overall sales and a 0.7% increase in sales less autos. Overall sales had been expected to increase by 0.8% while sales less autos were expected to have increased by 0.5%. As an aside, import and export price data garnered little attention.

Word of improved economic sentiment in Germany and the decision that Japan's central bank opted to increase the size of its asset purchase program proved pleasing to market participants. The latter headline has taken the yen down sharply against the greenback. Selling against the euro has intensified in recent trade, leaving the currency at a new session low. The Dollar Index is now up 0.7% for the day.

Interest in the dollar, a traditional safe haven, has also been bolstered by the stock market's inability to fight through selling pressure.

Financials have been a heavy drag on trade all session. As a group they're currently down about 1.6%, which makes for the worst performance of any major sector.

Energy stocks had attempted to offer support in mid-morning trade, but the sector has since rolled over to trade in the red with the rest of the market. The sector's retreat comes as oil prices slide to a session low of $100.50 per barrel, which makes for a 0.5% loss. DJ30 -45.94 NASDAQ -16.64 SP500 -7.27 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 770/845 mln/1670 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 840/290 mln/2050

12:30 pm : Listless, lackluster action among equities has bolstered buying interest among Treasuries, such that the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note has fallen to 1.95%, which stands as its lowest level in one week.DJ30 -30.58 NASDAQ -13.53 SP500 -5.07 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 780/780 mln/1640 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 850/275 mln/2020

12:00 pm : Stocks have been unable to build on their recent rebound effort, leaving the major equity averages to remain in the red.

Although energy stocks had been displaying leadership, the sector's momentum has stalled. As a result, energy stocks are now up just 0.2% for the day. That said, names like Devon Energy (DVN 67.61, +1.97), Cabot Oil (COG 35.04, +1.00), and Newfield Exploration (NFX 39.40, +1.24) are still sporting gains roughly on the order of 3%. DJ30 -23.65 NASDAQ -10.47 SP500 -4.34 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 780/670 mln/1615 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 855/240 mln/1990

11:30 am : After setting session lows in recent trade stocks are on the rebound. The bounce has the broad market back where it began today's trade.

Energy stocks are showing leadership. The sector has managed to make a steady march higher so that it is now at its best level of the day and sporting a 0.3% gain, which is better than what any other sector has achieved.

The sector's efforts have been undermined by financials, which remain in weak shape. As a group financials are down 1.1%. DJ30 -21.27 NASDAQ -10.55 SP500 -3.75 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 685/570 mln/1680 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 735/205 mln/2100

11:00 am : A recent rebound attempt has been countered with renewed selling, forcing both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 to new morning lows. Meanwhile, the Dow is testing the depths that it set about 40 minutes ago.

While stocks are sliding, the greenback is garnering additional buying interest. The currency has climbed to a new morning high for a 0.6% gain against a basket of major foreign currencies. Most of its move has come against Japan's yen, which has fallen 1.1% so that it trades at 78.4 yen per dollar. The move follows news that Japan's central bank has expanded the size of its asset purchase program. Meanwhile, the euro is down just 0.2% against the greenback at $1.31. DJ30 -47.65 NASDAQ -17.30 SP500 -7.33 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 645/440 mln/1675 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 685/165 mln/2115

10:40 am : The dollar index is trading higher this morning, which has creating selling pressure to select commodities, mainly precious metals. In recent trade, the index is back near its session high.

In the energy space, Mar crude oil has been trading higher all morning and rallied just after floor trading open, which pushed crude oil to a new session high of $100.68. In more recent trade, crude extended gains and hit a new session high of $101.84/barrel and is currently up 0.6% at $101.52.

Feb natural gas has been showing strength as well this morning and is now up 4.3% at $2.54.

In metals, Apr gold and March silver were been in the red overnight and earlier this morning, but rallied a couple of hours ago and pushed back into positive territory. Gold is currently up +0.1% at $1726.00/oz and silver is now back in the red, currently down 0.2% $33.66/oz.DJ30 -32.21 NASDAQ -9.64 SP500 -4.74 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 653/419 mln/1668 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 702/161 mln/2089

10:00 am : Trade has become rather choppy. That has kept stocks stuck in negative territory with modest losses.

Business inventory data for December hasn't done anything to inspire market participants to increase their stakes. Inventories reportedly increased by 0.4%, which is slightly less than the 0.5% increase that had been broadly anticipated. DJ30 -29.85 NASDAQ -7.23 SP500 -4.12 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 660/115 mln/1440 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 745/65 mln/1880

09:45 am : The major equity averages are down with modest losses this morning. Although early pressure is broad, financials, which performed well in the prior session, are a source of pronounced weakness. Collectively, they are down 0.8%.

Health care stocks make up the strongest sector this morning, but they're only up 0.2% as a group. Hospira (HSP 36.58, +2.36) is an early leader among health care plays. DJ30 -21.19 NASDAQ -6.06 SP500 -3.01 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -4.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -5.00. Stock futures have eased lower so that a slightly lower start to trade today is expected. Moderate weakness comes after stocks scored strong gains yesterday in response to approved austerity measures in Greece, only to be reminded of the precarious conditions in the rest of the eurozone by several debt rating downgrades by analysts at Moody's.

Helping to temper disappointment over those headlines is news of improved economic sentiment in Germany, which is the eurozone's largest, most diverse economy. Additionally, Japan announced that it has expanded its asset purchase program.

However, domestic data hasn't been all that inspiring. It has thus far featured some unexciting import and export numbers, while monthly retail sales were mixed in that overall sales increased by half of what had been expected while sales less autos proved stronger than expected. Business inventory data are due at 10:00 AM ET.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -5.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -6.50. Stock futures have eased lower so that they trail fair value by a narrow margin. Meanwhile, commodities are mixed this morning. That has allowed the CRB Index to drift down to a 0.2% loss. Among its more closely tracked constituents, crude oil prices are up 0.3% to $101.20 per barrel in the opening minutes of pit trade. However, natural gas prices have spiked to $2.47 per MMBtu for a 1.7% gain. Precious metals are grappling with selling pressure that has left gold to trade with a 0.4% loss at $1718 per ounce and silver down to $33.46 per ounce for a 0.8% loss.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -3.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -3.50. The latest round of data has done nothing to inspire action ahead of the open. Retail sales increased by 0.4% during January. That's only half of the 0.8% increase that had been expected, on average, among economists polled by Briefing.com. Although the increase in sales failed to match what had been broadly predicted, it did mark an improvement from the flat sales rate posted for the prior month.

Excluding autos, retail sales actually climbed by 0.7%, which is greater than the 0.5% increase that had been widely anticipated. The surprisingly strong increase comes after prior month sales were revised downward to reflect a 0.5% decline, though.

Separately, export prices that exclude agricultural items were flat in January after they declined by 0.2% in the prior month. Meanwhile, import prices that exclude oil increased by 0.1% in January, just as they had in the prior month.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -1.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: flat. Stock futures are essentially flat this morning. Analysts at Moody's reminded market participants of the precarious conditions in the eurozone by downgrading debt ratings of a handful of countries in the region's periphery. Outlooks for core areas like France and Austria were made negative, as was that of the United Kingdom.

In the face of those actions Germany reported a strong improvement in sentiment. Meanwhile, Japan's central bank increased the size of its asset purchase program.

After going yesterday without a single dose of domestic data, monthly retail sales numbers and monthly import and export price data are due at the bottom of the hour. Monthly business inventory numbers will be released at 10:00 AM ET.

The number of earnings announcements has picked up since yesterday morning. The latest round includes an upside surprises from Marsh McLennan (MMC 32.32, +0.07) and Omnicom Group (OMC 47.94, -0.09), but a miss from Goodyear Tire (GT 13.55, -0.42). Note: ticker quotes reflect premarket prices.

06:33 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +1.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.50.

06:33 am : Nikkei...9052.07...+52.90...+0.60%. Hang Seng...20917.83...+30.40...+0.20%.

06:33 am : FTSE...5912.18...+6.50...+0.10%. DAX...6765.86...+27.40...+0.40%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader, http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader and http://chart.ly/users/wrbtrader

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