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 Post subject: February 9th Thursday 2012 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +14.30
PostPosted: Thu Feb 09, 2012 11:32 pm 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)

Attachment:
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click on the above image to view today's performance verification

Price Action Trade Performance for Today: +14.30 points or $1430 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, all trades were posted real-time in the free #FuturesTrades chat room. Today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs provides details (e.g. time, price, contract size) about each one of my trades from entry to exit along with price action commentary as the trade traversed...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=101&t=1138.

To join our free chat room...registration instructions located at a different forum @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=630

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my price action trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our price action trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=149&t=1370

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Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/IMF actions or any important global economic events that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables (key market events) causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that results in swing points and strong continuation price actions. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for my technical analysis. Just as important, these summaries becomes my archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past...something I can not get from my broker statements alone.

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Market Update

4:30 pm : For the third straight session the stock market rode a modest gain into the close. The moves may not have been exciting to watch, but they've put the broad market on pace for its sixth straight weekly gain and at its best level in seven months.

Trade this week has kept a consistent pattern: stocks run into some morning selling pressure, but gradually work their way higher. In the first session of the week stocks finished flat, but in the past three they have managed modest gains.

In each of the past two sessions tech stocks have provided support. The largest sector by market weight advanced 0.7% yesterday and another 1.0% in the latest round of action. The sector's latest effort was led by the likes of Akamai Tech (AKAM 38.06, +3.62) and Visa (V 112.42, +4.07). Each posted an upside earnings surprise for the latest quarter. Cisco (CSCO 20.00, -0.43) also posted better-than-expected bottom-line results, but the stock still ran into selling pressure.

Shares of Whole Foods (WFMI 82.02, +4.09) won over market participants with its latest quarterly report. The stock helped lead the consumer staples sector to a 0.5% gain. In contrast, PepsiCo (PEP 64.27, -2.47) dropped sharply following its upside earnings surprise.

The positive correlation between stock prices and the euro has lessened in recent days. As such, the major averages moved little in response to the euro's 0.4% climb to a near two-month high of $1.33. However, the euro remains sensitive to headlines regarding a forthcoming austerity plan from Greece's politicians -- to little surprise the story was the topic of rumors again today.

Market participants were also unsurprised by the decision of the European Central Bank to keep its target lending rate at 1.00%, but some were pleased to learn that the ECB expanded collateral guidelines. Meanwhile, the Bank of England kept its target rate at 0.5%, but expanded its lending program by 50 billion to 225 billion pounds.

China attracted some attention for its latest inflationary reading, which showed that consumer prices there experienced a 4.5% increase in January. That proved to be hotter than many had anticipated.

Domestic data featured the latest initial weekly jobless claims tally, which totaled 358,000. Economists polled by Briefing.com had, on average, called for an initial claims count closer to 370,000.

Wholesale inventories showed a 1.0% increase during December, but that number was given very little attention by market participants.

Treasuries attracted buyers after a weak start, which actually sent the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note to a 10-day high. By session's end the Note's yield eased back below 2.05%. In play were results from an auction of 30-year Bonds that featured strong dollar demand of $39.5 billion, a bid-to-cover of 2.47, and an indirect bidder rate of 29.2%. For comparison, an average of the past six auctions results in dollar demand of $36.7 billion, a bid-to-cover of 2.65, and an indirect bidder participation rate of 28.8%.

Advancing Sectors: Tech +1.0%, Consumer Staples +0.5%, Consumer Discretionary +0.2%, Materials +0.1%, Industrials +0.1%
Declining Sectors: Telecom -0.1%, Energy -0.1%, Utilities -0.2%, Financials -0.4%, Health Care -0.4% DJ30 +6.51 NASDAQ +11.37 NQ100 +0.7% R2K -0.4% SP400 +0.2% SP500 +1.99 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1134/2.14 bln/1405 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1522/759 mln/1482

3:30 pm : The CRB Index settled today's trade with a modest gain of 0.2%. It will enter Friday on pace for a 0.4% weekly gain.

Oil performed well today. The primary energy component scored a 1.2% gain by settling pit trade at $99.84 per barrel. Meanwhile, natural gas prices experienced plenty of volatility, but ultimately the commodity scored a 1.6% gain by settling at $2.48 per MMBtu. Prices had been as high as $2.59 per MMBtu and near $2.40 per MMBtu at its session low. Weekly inventory data showed a draw of 78 bcf, which is less than the draw of 90 bcf that had been broadly expected.

Precious metals maintained strong gains throughout the session. Gold contracts settled with the yellow metal priced at $1741.20 per ounce for a 0.6% gain. Silver settled with a 0.7% gain at $34.01 per ounce. DJ30 +17.86 NASDAQ +12.96 SP500 +2.89 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1195/1.74 bln/1310 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1600/525 mln/1400

3:00 pm : The final hour of today's trade has arrived. As has been the case in each of the past two sessions, the S&P 500 is resting on only a modest gain.

With the final hour at hand, many market participants are preparing for another round of earnings results. Sunoco (SUN 39.73, -0.40) is slated to report after the close, along with Pitney Bowes (PBI 19.60, +0.10) and Activision Blizzard (ATVI 12.66, +0.11). Tomorrow morning brings only a handful of names; not one is likely to move the market.

As for data, tomorrow brings the latest trade balance, a preliminary look at consumer sentiment, and the Treasury budget. DJ30 +19.68 NASDAQ +12.96 SP500 +3.12 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1200/1.64 bln/1305 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1585/485 mln/1405

2:30 pm : Most stocks continue to trade with only modest gains. As has been the case all session, the broad market has refused to fully follow the lead of the tech sector, which is currently sporting the biggest percentage gain of any major sector with its 1.0% advance.

Although the broad market has managed to maintain a modest gain, the Volatility Index is up more than 1% today. The upward move marks its gradual climb up from the multi-month low that it set last Friday. DJ30 +27.02 NASDAQ +13.29 SP500 +3.95 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1145/1.49 bln/1360 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1580/445 mln/1400

2:00 pm : The stock market's recent move to a new sessin high has been unable to gain any kind of momentum. That has left stocks to continue trading with only modest gains.DJ30 +26.07 NASDAQ +11.75 SP500 +3.39 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1125/1.39 bln/1355 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1560/415 mln/1385

1:30 pm : Stocks have stretched higher to reach their best levels of the session. The move also puts the broad market at its best intraday level in seven months.

Treasuries have maintained narrow gains in the wake of results from an auction of 30-year Bonds that featured strong dollar demand of $39.5 billion. The auction also drew a bid-to-cover of 2.47 and an indirect bidder rate of 29.2%. For comparison, the prior auction drew dollar demand of $33.8 billion, a bid-to-cover of 2.60, and an indirect bidder rate of 31.9%. Meanwhile, an average of the past six auctions results in dollar demand of $36.7 billion, a bid-to-cover of 2.65, and an indirect bidder participation rate of 28.8%. DJ30 +30.09 NASDAQ +13.28 SP500 +3.95 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1025/1.28 bln/1425 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1420/385 mln/1525

1:00 pm : Despite a strong advance by the tech sector, the broad market has spent the session chopping along in a relatively narrow trading range.

Consistent with the action of the past few sessions, stocks have generally traded in a tight range near the neutral line. In contrast to those sessions, trade today isn't really without leadership. Still, the broad market remains reluctant to make anything more than modest moves.

Tech stocks have been out in front of the broad market for most of the session. The largest sector by market weight is currently up little more than 1% -- that's more than double the 0.4% gain by Consumer Staples, which stands as the second best performing sector of the session. Tech stocks have been led higher by the likes of Akamai Tech (AKAM 37.98, +3.54) and Visa (V 113.70, +5.35); both posted better-than-expected earnings results. Cisco (CSCO 20.28, -0.15) has actually lagged the sector, despite an upside earnings surprise of its own.

Financials have spent the past few hours muddling along with a modest loss, which currently stands at 0.3%. The sector received little relief from news of a mortgage settlement between banks and the U.S. government.

Market participants got a couple of doses of data after a dearth of reports in recent days. Specifically, the latest initial weekly jobless claims tally totaled 358,000, which came as a positive surprise since it is less than the 370,000 claims that had been widely expected. Separately, wholesale inventories increased by 1.0% during December, which is greater than the 0.4% increase that had been generally anticipated.

The dollar is down as a result of renewed strength in the euro, which has been bid higher amid more rumors regarding new austerity measures by Greece. Also in the mix are recent comments from the European Central Bank President Draghi, who stated that his outlook for the European economy is less pessimistic than that of International Monetary Fund. Although the European Central Bank kept its target lending rate at 1.00%, it expanded collateral guidelines that effectively make policies more accommodative. The sterling pound has also attracted some support after the Bank of England kept its target rate at 0.5%, but expanded its lending program by 50 billion so that it now stands at 225 billion pounds.

Treasuries traded lower this morning, but they have since attracted support ahead of results from an auction of 30-year Bonds. Details from the offering are due at any moment. DJ30 +18.39 NASDAQ +9.03 SP500 +2.59 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1060/1.18 bln/1400 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1430/350 mln/1510

12:30 pm : Stocks have been unable to build on their recent bounce. That has kept the broad market near the neutral line. Action has been generally choppy and range bound since the start of the session.

President Obama is currently holding a press conference in which he discusses a recent settlement deal involving banks and mortgages. He has called the deal a "landmark event," but bank shares aren't showing much of a response to the comments. As such, the KBW Bank Index remains in the red with a modest loss of about 0.3%. DJ30 +9.50 NASDAQ +8.14 SP500 +1.07 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1055/1.06 bln/1350 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1370/315 mln/1530

12:00 pm : Stocks recently overcame intraday resistance at the neutral line to return to positive territory. The move has the broad market at its best level since the early going.

Tech stocks continue to outpace broad market action. The sector is now up with an impressive gain of 1.0%. Cisco Systems (CSCO 20.44, +0.01) had a weak start that forced the stock to a new weekly low, despite an upside earnings surprise in its latest quarterly report, but shares of the chip and communications technology bellwether have battled their way back to the flat line. DJ30 +24.79 NASDAQ +9.75 SP500 +2.27 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 940/960 mln/1455 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1260/285 mln/1635

11:30 am : The climb by the S&P 500 has stalled just shy of positive territory. Should stocks enter a sideways drift, the tight, range bound action would be consistent with that of the past few sessions.

Tech stocks continue to outperform, but even with an impressive gain of 0.7% the largest sector by market weight has been unable to inspire buying in the broader market. In fact, consumer staples stocks make up the only other sector in positive territory, and they're only up 0.1% as a group. DJ30 -3.40 NASDAQ +3.87 SP500 -1.10 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 980/815 mln/1390 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1235/245 mln/1615

11:00 am : Stocks recently slipped into the red, but the S&P 500 was able to find support right about where trade settled last week. The broad market measure has been slowly working its way higher from there, but it has yet to return to positive territory.

While stocks continue to trade in mixed fashion, the euro is sporting a strong gain. It was last quoted at $1.330, which makes for a 0.5% gain against the greenback. The currency is currently on pace for a weekly gain greater than 1%. Most of the euro's advances this week have been spurred by speculation that Greece will soon announce austerity measures. DJ30 -8.51+ NASDAQ 0.93 SP500 -1.54 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 815/630 mln/1495 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 980/190 mln/1825

10:35 am : The dollar index hit a new session low at 78.40 in morning trade, which pushed commodities higher and select commodities to new session highs, including precious metals and crude oil.

Energy: Mar crude oil has been in positive territory all session and has been in an uptrend this morning. Just a few minutes before U.S. equity markets opened, crude rallied to a new session of $100.03 and since been trading within ~99.56 and its session high. In current activity, crude is 1% higher at $99.67.

Feb natural gas has been in positive territory all morning and holds a current morning high at $2.48. The energy component pulled back slightly and was around $2.47, up 0.7% ahead of inventory data. Following the data, which showed a draw of 78 bcf, below the consensus which called for a draw of 90 bcf, nat gas dropped into negative territory and a new session low of $2.40/MMBtu.

In metals, Apr gold and March silver rallied this morning to new session highs on the pullback in the dollar index. Gold hit $1748.70/oz and silver ran as high as $34.35/oz. Prior to the rally, both precious metals were sitting in positive territory all morning. In current trade, gold is up 0.9% at $1746.30, while silver is up 1.1% at $34.06/oz.DJ30 -6.39 NASDAQ -5.25 SP500 -2.36 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 878/532 mln/1400 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1056/161 mln/1718

10:00 am : Stocks are trading in choppy fashion this morning. The rest of the market has been reluctant to rally around the tech sector; as a group tech stocks are now sporting a 0.7% gain.

Wholesale inventories increased by 1.0% during December. They had been generally expected to increase by 0.4%, according to economists surveyed by Briefing.com. DJ30 +35.12 NASDAQ +3.48 SP500 +2.01 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1135/155 mln/930 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1615/60 mln/975

09:45 am : Stocks made a modest move higher in the opening minutes of trade to extend their recent climb, but a mild flurry of selling has sent the broad market back to the neutral line.

Leadership is limited this morning. Tech stocks, which make up the largest sector by market weight, are up a solid 0.4% while every other sector is either in the red or stuck near the unchanged mark. Akamai Tech (AKAM 39.02, +4.58) and Visa (V 112.89, +4.54) are top performers in the Tech sector, thanks to strong quarterly reports. DJ30 +27.25 NASDAQ +0.70 SP500 +1.16 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +1.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +5.80. Stock futures are up only narrowly in the minutes that precede the opening bell. The measured bid has been a theme of the past few sessions. All the while, rumors and headlines of an austerity deal from Greece have been in the backdrop, although nothing official has actually been released.

Included in today's mix is news that consumer prices in China experienced a pick-up in January. Overnight trade in Asia was generally mixed. Meanwhile, Europe's bourses are sporting solid gains in their latest round of trade. The gains come amid the decision by both the European Central Bank and Bank of England to stand pat on their target rates of 1.00% and 0.5%, respectively. However, the Bank of England expanded its lending program by 50 billion so that it now stands at 225 billion pounds.

On the corporate front, earnings remain strong. The latest round has been headlined by an upside earnings surprise from Dow component Cisco (CSCO 20.23, -0.20). The stock initial traded higher after its numbers were released last evening, but this morning the shares are under pressure. Note: ticker quotes reflect premarket prices.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.50. Commodities are displaying strength today. That has the CRB Index up 0.4%. Among the more closely tracked commodities, oil prices are up 0.8% to $99.50 per barrel. Meanwhile, natural gas prices are up 0.5% to $2.46 per MMBtu ahead of weekly inventory numbers at 10:30 AM ET. As for precious metals, gold prices are up 0.4% to $1739 per ounce, but silver is up 0.9% to $34 per ounce.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +1.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.80. Stock futures haven't really shown a response to some rather pleasing data. Initial weekly jobless claims for the week ended February 4 totaled 358,000, which is not only less than the 370,000 claims that had been widely expected, but it is also less than the prior week's upwardly revised tally of 373,000. However, continuing claims climbed to 3.52 million from 3.45 million. Separately, European Central Bank President Draghi has just begun a press conference. His comments come shortly after headlines were made regarding a deal on austerity measures between Greece's politicians. An official statement has yet to be made, however.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +2.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +5.00. Stock futures are trading narrowly above the neutral line this morning. The latest round of earnings has been rather upbeat in that Cisco (CSCO 20.34, -0.09), News Corp (NWSA 19.50, -0.12), Prudential (PRU 60.75, +0.21), Visa (V 112.95, +4.60), and PepsiCo (PEP 65.45, -1.29) all posted upside earnings surprises, but their reports haven't exactly bolstered broad market buying interest ahead of the open. Meanwhile, Oracle (ORCL 28.80, +0.07) announced that it will acquire Taleo (TLEO 38.94, +0.03) for $46 per share, which represents a premium of 18% over the stock's prior session closing price.

A mixed overnight session in Asia that was highlighted by a hotter-than-expected inflation reading from China has been followed by solid gains among Europe's major bourses. While equities in Europe are trading higher, the euro remains mired near the neutral line. The action comes after the Bank of England left its benchmark lending rate at 0.5%, but expanded its lending program by another 50 billion to 325 billion pounds. The European Central Bank kept its target rate at 1.00%. Its President will hold a press conference that begins at the bottom of the hour.

The bottom of the hour also brings market participants a modest dose of domestic data, which is the weekly initial jobless claims report. Monthly wholesale trade numbers will be released at 10:00 AM ET. Also on today's docket are weekly natural gas inventories (10:30 AM ET) and results from an auction in 30-year Bonds (1:00 PM ET).

06:29 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -2.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.50.

06:29 am : Nikkei...9002.24...-13.40...-0.20%. Hang Seng...21010.01...-8.50...0.00.

06:29 am : FTSE...5893.47...+17.50...+0.30%. DAX...6785.56...+36.80...+0.50%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader, http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader and http://chart.ly/users/wrbtrader

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