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 Post subject: February 7th Tuesday 2012 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +12.60
PostPosted: Tue Feb 07, 2012 11:04 pm 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)

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click on the above image to view today's performance verification

Price Action Trade Performance for Today: +12.60 points or $1260 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, all trades were posted real-time in the free #FuturesTrades chat room. Today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs provides details (e.g. time, price, contract size) about each one of my trades from entry to exit along with price action commentary as the trade traversed...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=101&t=1136.

To join our free chat room...registration instructions located at a different forum @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=630

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my price action trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our price action trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=149&t=1370

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Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/IMF actions or any important global economic events that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables (key market events) causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that results in swing points and strong continuation price actions. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for my technical analysis. Just as important, these summaries becomes my archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past...something I can not get from my broker statements alone.

Stocks Rise Despite Concerns About Greece

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click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- U.S. stocks moved higher Tuesday, erasing earlier losses, on hopes that Greece is nearing a deal to secure more bailout money.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) rose 33 points, or 0.3%, to close at 12,878. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained 3 points, or 0.2%, to 1,347. The Nasdaq (COMP) edged up 2 points, or 0.1%, to 2,904.

Stocks opened lower amid concerns that Greek politicians might not reach an agreement on reforms needed to secure fresh bailout money and avoid a default. But traders said the tone improved after reports suggested that progress has been made in the negotiations.

"The big news today is Greece," said Dimitre Genov, senior portfolio manager at Artio Global Investors. "People are worried that there will be no resolution, but there seems to be news that things are going in the right direction," he said.

In a sign of optimism, the euro rose versus the U.S. dollar to the highest level since early December.

Prime Minister Lucas Papademos has reportedly finalized a draft of reforms including job and salary cuts, pension reforms and other policies to reduce public spending.

But a meeting of top leaders from Greece's main political parties has been pushed back to Wednesday, after talks were postponed earlier this week, the prime minister's office said.

The reforms are needed for Greece to receive a second bailout of €130 billion from the European Union, International Monetary Fund and European Central Bank. Without additional funding, Greece will most likely miss a €14.5 billion bond redemption in March, sending shock waves throughout the global financial system.

Meanwhile, Greek labor unions held a general strike to protest the measures. The Greek government is tentatively set to hold general elections in April.

* Greek unions set to strike over new austerity demands

"All eyes are on the Greek debt talks right now," said Tim Moore, a portfolio manager at Cabot Money Management in Salem, Mass. "Europe is doing everything it can to keep Greece and the banks afloat, but it's a long-term process."

Moore said investors have been encouraged by recent moves by the European Central Bank to stabilize the banking sector. And an improved outlook for the U.S. economy has helped boost the market so far this year, he added.

So far this year, the Nasdaq is up 11%, the S&P 500 is up about 7%, and the Dow has gained 5%.

"Stocks are finally reacting to actual fundamentals," said Moore.

With little economic or corporate news,U.S. stocks hovered below the breakeven line Monday.

* Video - Greece may need Eli Manning

World markets: European stocks ended mixed. The DAX (DAX) in Germany dropped 0.1%, and France's CAC 40 (CAC40) gained 0.1%. Britain's FTSE 100 (UKX) ended flat.

Asian markets ended in the red. The Shanghai Composite (SHCOMP) dropped 1.7%, while the Hang Seng (HSI) in Hong Kong and Japan's Nikkei (N225) slipped 0.1%.

Economy: The Federal Reserve said consumer credit rose by $19.3 billion to $2.5 trillion in December. Analysts surveyed by Briefing.com expect the report to show that consumer credit expanded by $8.5 billion.

Companies: Commodities trader Glencore International (GLCNF) agreed to buy Xstrata for $61.9 billion, making it the biggest mining takeover in history. The deal will create a $90 billion company.

Shares of Sears Holding Company (SHLD, Fortune 500) rallied 6% on speculation it was working with Goldman Sachs (GS, Fortune 500) to find a buyer for the troubled retailer.

After the market closed, Walt Disney (DIS, Fortune 500) said fourth-quarter earnings rose 17% to 80 cents per share, topping analysts' expectations.

Earlier, oil company BP posted increased fourth-quarter profits and raised its dividend on Tuesday. The company hailed the improved result as a turning point in the long climb back from Gulf of Mexico oil spill of 2010.

But shares of BP (BP) slipped, as investors remain wary of how much the spill will cost following a trial that is set to begin later this month.

Shares of UBS (UBS) lost ground after the Swiss bank posted a 75% drop in its fourth-quarter profit and missed forecasts. The bank also issued a bleak outlook for the current quarter -- noting that concerns over the European debt crisis, U.S. deficit and ongoing uncertainty about the global economic outlook will have a "negative influence on client activity levels."

Yum! Brands' (YUM, Fortune 500) stock rose nearly 3% after the fast-food operator topped earnings expectations late Monday, thanks to sales growth in China.

* China: Fast food nation. Too fast economy?

Coca-Cola (KO, Fortune 500) shares edged higher after the beverage maker topped earnings and sales estimates for the fourth quarter.

Insurance company Unum Group (UNM, Fortune 500) reported a net loss for the fourth quarter, driven largely by a one-time charge. Shares fell nearly 4%.

* Video - U.S. manufacturing jobs: Gone for good

Currencies and commodities: The dollar fell against the euro and the British pound, but rose versus the Japanese yen.

Oil for March delivery rose $1.50 to end at $98.41 a barrel.

Gold futures for April delivery rose $23.50 to settle at $1,748.40 an ounce.

Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury fell, and the yield rose to 1.97%.

Image

Market Update

4:30 pm : Stocks slipped in response to some early selling, but once they worked their way into higher ground they entered into a sideways drift that lasted almost all afternoon.

Dwindling confidence in Greece's ability to establish and implement new austerity measures undermined early sentiment. Rumors regarding a forthcoming agreement continue to permeate trade, but many of those stories are followed with headlines about further delays to discussions.

Despite frustration over Greece, an absence of economic data, and a lack of leadership among stocks, stocks were able to attract buyers in early trade. Their support spurred a rebound that took all three major equity averages into positive territory, where the spent the rest of the session drifting along narrowly above the neutral line.

With a 0.7% advance, utilities stocks collectively scored the strongest gains, despite their stodgy, defensive-oriented stature. Energy stocks weren't far behind; they climbed 0.5% with help from a rebound in oil prices, which overcame an early loss to settle pit trade with a 1.6% gain at $98.54 per barrel. BP Plc (BP 46.60, -0.27) was able to cut its loss, but still couldn't score an actual gain as shares wrestled with sellers in the wake of the company's latest quarterly report, which included a dividend hike to $0.08 from $0.07 per quarter.

Dow component Coca-Cola (KO 68.55, +0.52) put together a solid gain following an upside earnings surprise for the latest quarter, but fellow blue chip Microsoft (MSFT 30.35, +0.15) set a new 52-week high.

Swiss investment and banking outfit UBS AG (UBS 14.27, -0.10) slid in response to a disappointing quarterly report. Domestic investment banks and brokerage plays were implicated by the report. As a group financials finished the session with a fractional loss.

The only actual economic data for the day featured the latest consumer credit numbers, which showed that consumer credit spiked during December to $19.3 billion. That's more than double the Briefing.com consensus of $8.5 billion in consumer credit.

Fed Chairman Bernanke delivered a testimony to the Senate Budget Committee today, but his comments came without surprise since they mirrored those delivered last week to the House Budget Committee.

Advancing Sectors: Utilities +0.7%, Energy +0.5%, Consumer Discretionary +0.4%, Tech +0.3%, Health Care +0.3%, Consumer Staples +0.1%
Unchanged: Telecom, Industrials
Declining Sectors: Financials -0.1%, Materials -0.3%DJ30 +33.07 NASDAQ +2.09 NQ100 +0.2% R2K -0.1% SP400 +0.2% SP500 +2.72 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1201/1.77 bln/1336 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1689/728 mln/1299

3:30 pm : Oil scored a strong gain after it had started pit trade with a modest loss. Specifically, the energy component settled with a 1.6% gain at $98.54 per barrel. In contrast, natural gas gave up an early gain to close at $2.47 per MMBtu with a 3.1% loss.

Precious metals overcame early selling pressure. The effort culmitated with gold closing pit trade at $1748.60 per ounce for a 0.5% gain, while silver settled with a 1.5% gain at $34.24 per ounce after it had been down about 1% this morning.

The improved tone in the commodity complex resulted in a 0.3% gain for the CRB Index. DJ30 +52.79 NASDAQ +5.06 SP500 +4.46 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1200/1.39 bln/1310 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1670/465 mln/1285

3:00 pm : Stocks continue to slog along, but the broad market did slip slightly minutes ago. The move took the S&P 500 closer to the neutral line before it secured support.

The latest consumer credit numbers were just released. During December consumer credit spiked to $19.3 billion, which is far greater than the $8.5 billion that had been expected, on average, among economists polled by Briefing.com. DJ30 +27.17 NASDAQ -1.16 SP500 +1.02 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1240/1.28 bln/1265 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1660/425 mln/1295

2:30 pm : The stock market continues to drift along in a narrow range. In fact, for about three straight hours the S&P 500 has stayed within a three-point span. Although it hasn't been exciting, the drift has helped the broad market maintain a narrow gain.

While the broad market remains range bound, utilities stocks have staged a steady ascent that has the sector up 0.8%. That's double the gain of the Consumer Discretionary sector, which represents the second best performing sector with its 0.4% gain. DJ30 +29.17 NASDAQ +2.52 SP500 +1.82 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1295/1.18 bln/1200 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1730/390 mln/1200

2:00 pm : Recent reports about delaying a meeting among Greece's officials were met with a fit of selling that caused stocks to slip slightly. The major equity averages all remain in positive territory with narrow gains, though.DJ30 +38.86 NASDAQ +4.42 SP500 +3.17 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1225/1.09 bln/1250 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1670/360 mln/1255

1:30 pm : Results from an auction of 3-year Notes were released at 1:00 PM ET. The auction drew a bid-to-cover of 3.30, dollar demand of $105.6 billion, and an indirect bidder participation rate of 27.7%. For comparison, the prior auction drew a bid-to-cover of 3.73, dollar demand of $119.4 billion, and an indirect bidder rate of 38.5%. An average of the past six auctions results in a bid-to-cover of 3.42, dollar demand of $109.3 billion, and an indirect bidder rate of 39.6%.

Treasuries haven't really moved in the wake of the results. That has kept the yield on the 3-year Note near 0.34% and the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note narrowly below 2.00%. DJ30 +30.08 NASDAQ +4.12 SP500 +1.89 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1265/1.00 bln/1190 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1750/330 mln/1170

1:00 pm : Stocks are drifting along with modest gains after rebounding from modest losses in the early going. Leadership remains lacking, however.

For the second straight session market participants were left to trade without any economic data. Corporate news was also essentially inconsequential, although Dow component Coca-Cola (KO 68.80, +0.77) announced an upside earnings surprise. Still, better-than-expected results from the global beverage company hardly bolstered buying interest. As a consequence, focus naturally shifted back to Greece, which continues struggling to find agreeable austerity measures in the face of default risk.

More rumors that a deal with Greece is forthcoming have helped take the euro up to a 1.0% gain against the greenback, but participants in the stock market continue to call for actual results.

Even though there haven't been any reports of progress in Greece or other countries in the eurozone periphery, the major equity averages have managed to work their way into positive territory after they had traded lower in the early going. The rebound has been broad, but without any real leadership.

Utilities stocks, which are defensive in nature and lack market weight, are actually the best performers. The sector is up 0.6%. Tech stocks, which make up the largest sector by market weight, are up 0.4% as a group, but the sector hasn't been able to build on its move into higher ground.

Fed Chairman Bernanke delivered a testimony to the Senate Budget Committee today, but his comments came without surprise since they mirrored those delivered last week to the House Budget Committee. DJ30 +30.08 NASDAQ +4.12 SP500 +1.89 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1190/920 mln/1245 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1660/300 mln/1225

12:30 pm : The major stock averages continue to dance along narrowly above the neutral line. Although their gains aren't all that impressive, their rebound from session lows has been enough to turn traders against Treasuries. In turn, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note is back to within a few basis points of 2.0%.

Treasuries could see some volatility with the release of results from an auction of 3-year Notes at the top of the hour. DJ30 +27.89 NASDAQ +4.04 SP500 +1.75 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1200/835 mln/1230 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1660/275 mln/1220

12:00 pm : Stocks have been unable to build on their recent rebound. That has left the major equity averages to trade with only narrow gains.

Utilities stocks are sporting relatively strong gains, however. The sector is currently at a session high with a 0.6% gain. Only on a few occasions has the defensive-oriented sector outperformed the broad market in 2012. Instead, the sector has generally lagged following its impressive performance in 2011, during which it scored an annual gain on the order of 15%. DJ30 +31.37 NASDAQ +5.65 SP500 +2.02 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1325/735 mln/1070 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1750/250 mln/1090

11:30 am : All three major equity averages are now narrowly higher for the session. The action coincides with a low for the dollar, which is now down 0.7% against a collection of competing currencies.

The dollar's decline has come primarily against the euro, which is now up 1.0%. Although there have been no official reports or announcements detailing new developments in Greece or the broader eurozone, the euro's advance suggests that sentiment in the eurozone has improved. DJ30 +32.89 NASDAQ +7.02 SP500 +2.41 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1170/625 mln/1190 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1635/215 mln/1200

11:00 am : Stocks extended their opening slide beneath the prior session's lows, but buyers have stepped in to fuel a rebound. The effort has taken both the Nasdaq and the Dow into positive territory, but the S&P 500 has paused near the neutral line.

The upward move by stocks has been broad based, but there still isn't a clear source of leadership. Energy stocks, which outperformed in the prior session, are still down 0.3% today. Meanwhile, both consumer discretionary and consumer staples plays are sporting collective gains of 0.3%. While that may be better than what any other sector has scored, neither group has the weight to carry the broad market higher, however. DJ30 +20.85 NASDAQ +2.65 SP500 +0.37 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 835/462 mln/1455 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1150/165 mln/1610

10:40 am : The dollar index is trading lower this morning, which is providing price support to select commodities.

In the energy space, Mar crude oil has rallied about $2/barrel over the past hour and a half. In recent trade, crude hit another new session high of $97.94/barrel. Currently, crude is up 0.9% at $97.74/barrel.

Feb natural gas is have been in a downtrend for over an hour now and is currently down 1.9% at $2.50/MMBtu.

In metals: Apr gold and March silver have rallied along with crude oil in recent activity. Gold ran as high as $1736.50 and silver hit a new session high of $33.87/oz. In current trade, gold is up 0.5% at $1733.60, while silver is now down 0.1% at $33.69/oz.DJ30 -21.91 NASDAQ -8.01 SP500 -3.90 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 831/436 mln/1449 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1137/160 mln/1615

10:00 am : Stocks have drifted deeper into negative territory, but overall losses remain modest.

Fed Chairman Bernanke is about to begin his testimony to the Senate Budget Committee. His prepared remarks are the same as those he made last week to the Budget Committee of the House of Representatives. As such, there is little surprise to the mention that the economy's slow recovery has left it vulnerable to shocks. DJ30 -53.59 NASDAQ -14.85 SP500 -7.22 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 725/145 mln/1370 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 900/70 mln/1685

09:45 am : As they did in the prior session, the major equity averages have slipped to modest losses in morning trade. The move comes amid a lack of positive leadership.

There isn't a single sector in positive territory this morning, although the Consumer Discretionary sector is currently testing higher ground by dancing along near the neutral line. Industrial stocks are at the other end of things. Their collective 0.7% loss is the worst loss of any major sector this morning. DJ30 -34.75 NASDAQ -7.94 SP500 -4.26 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec NAN/NA/NA

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -4.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -4.80. Stock futures point to a slightly lower open for the major equity averages. The relatively tepid tone comes as many market participants await some sort of official development from Greece, which continues to grapple with the acceptance and implementation of new austerity measures. The flagging country's efforts come as it seeks a bailout that will help prevent a default. As has been the case for weeks, there is chatter this morning that a final agreement is forthcoming. That has helped the euro run ahead to a 0.5% gain against the greenback after the currency had been flat earlier this morning. Corporate news continues to be of little consequence to the broad market, although Dow component Coca-Cola (KO 68.44, +0.41) has won itself some support following an upside earnings surprise. The economic calendar features a testimony from Fed Chairman Bernanke to the Senate Budget Committee at 10:00 AM ET and monthly consumer credit data at 3:00 PM ET.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -3.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -4.00. Oil prices are under pressure for the second straight session. Coming off of a near 1% drop in pit trade yesterday, the energy component was last quoted with a 0.9% loss at $96.05 per barrel in early pit trade today. Moving in the opposite direction, natural gas prices have built on their prior session bounce by climbing another 1.1% to $2.58 per MMBtu. Gold prices were clipped in the prior session for a loss of about 1.0%, but selling against the yellow metal is less intense this morning. Gold was last quoted with a 0.2% loss at $1722 per ounce. Silver rallied out of the red to settle a few cents higher in the prior session, but renewed weakness has the precious metal down 1.0% to $33.40 per ounce. General weakness in the commodity complex has the CRB Index off by 0.4% in the early going.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -4.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -5.50. Greece's progress, or lack thereof, in setting and implementing austerity measures remains a primary focal point for those taking positions in European trade. Amid frustration and diffidence related to the matter, stocks there are trading with renewed weakness. Germany's DAX is currently down 0.7%. Widespread weakness has limited the number of advancing issues. BMW, Volkswagen, and Daimler are all in particularly poor shape. France's CAC is currently off by 0.3% LVMH Moet Hennesey is under considerable pressure, but BNP Paribas is holding steady near the neutral line. France reported this morning that its trade deficit climbed to almost 5.0 trillion euros in December from 4.1 trillion euros the month before. In Britain, the FTSE is off by 0.5%. Both Xstrata and Glencore International are down sharply amid details of their all-stock merger, in which each Xstrata share will be exchanged for 2.8 Glencore shares. BP Plc (BP 46.08, -0.79) posted its latest quarterly report earlier this morning, but it hasn't been received with much fanfare. The company also added a penny to its quarterly dividend, which now stands at $0.08 per share. Swiss investment and banking outfit UBS (UBS 14.18, -0.19) came short of the consensus earnings estimate for the latest quarter.

Action in Asia took Japan's Nikkei down for a fractional loss of just 0.1% after the Average had climbed more than 1% in the prior session. Fuji Heavy Equipment and Mazda Motor were among the heavier drags on trade, but Mitsubishi Chemical, Taiheiyo Cement, and Nippon Steel displayed strength. Toyota Motor (TM 79.57, +1.86) finished flat. The company announced in the early morning hours its latest quarterly results, which featured a relatively light revenue figure. The automaker also issued a soft sales forecast. Hong Kong's Hang Seng also settled with a fractional loss of 0.1%. Property plays were culprits for the second straight session. Mainland China's Shanghai Composite closed with a 1.7% loss. While weakness was certainly widespread, Air China was among the poorest performers.

Note: all ticker quotes reflect U.S. premarket prices.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -4.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -6.50. Varied losses in Europe are undermining early morning interest. As such, stock futures point to a modestly lower open. On the earnings front, Dow component Coca-Cola (KO 68.81, +0.78) exceeded the consensus earnings estimate, but UBS (UBS 14.09, -0.28) came short of what Wall Street had expected. Note: ticker quotes reflect premarket prices. At 10:00 AM ET, Fed Chairman Bernanke will deliver a testimony to the Senate Budget Committee, but his comments are unlikely to deviate from those he delivered last week to the House Budget Committee. The latest consumer credit numbers will be released this afternoon.

06:23 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -2.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.50.

06:23 am : Nikkei...8917.52...-11.70...-0.10%. Hang Seng...20699.19...-10.80...-0.10%.

06:23 am : FTSE...5875.63...-16.60...-0.30%. DAX...6715.83...-49.00...-0.70%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

Phone: +1.708.572.4885
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