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 Post subject: February 1st Wednesday 2012 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +1.40
PostPosted: Thu Feb 02, 2012 12:12 am 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)

Attachment:
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click on the above image to view today's performance verification

Price Action Trade Performance for Today: +1.40 points or $140 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, all trades were posted real-time in the free #FuturesTrades chat room. Today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs provides details (e.g. time, price, contract size) about each one of my trades from entry to exit along with price action commentary as the trade traversed...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=101&t=1131.

To join our free chat room...registration instructions located at a different forum @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=630

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my price action trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our price action trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=149&t=1370

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Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/IMF actions or any important global economic events that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables (key market events) causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that results in swing points and strong continuation price actions. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for my technical analysis. Just as important, these summaries becomes my archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past...something I can not get from my broker statements alone.

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Market Update

4:30 pm : Stocks settled shy of their session highs, but still booked big gains on the day. Not only did that free the broad market from its recent funk, but it gave stocks one of their best performances in the past couple of weeks.

In the early going market participants maintained their bullish bias in the face of a relatively disappointing ADP Employment Change. The report suggested that private payrolls increased by 170,000 in January, rather than by 200,000, as had been broadly expected. The report is widely regarded as a preview of the official payrolls report that is due Friday.

Positive sentiment in Europe was a primary underpinning of the stock market's early strength. Market participants made note of a successful debt offering from financially precarious Portugal. While mixed manufacturing data from China was shrugged off by many, news that a handful of PMI Manufacturing readings from the eurozone made incremental improvements were also regarded as a positive. Notably, a compromise with creditors continues to elude Greece.

Strength in the euro reflected sentiment in Europe. It led the greenback for the entire session and was up about 0.5% as of the closing bell.

Morning trade got a little choppy with the release of the latest ISM Manufacturing Index and some monthly construction spending numbers. The ISM Manufacturing Index improved in January to 54.1 from 53.1 in the prior month, but many had expected it to make a slightly stronger climb to 54.5. Construction spending during December increased by 1.5%, which is far better than the 0.4% that had been expected. Spending in the prior month had increased by 0.4%.

Leadership from financials helped lift the broader market. The sector climbed to a gain greater than 2% before momentum stalled. As a group, financials finished with a 1.7% gain, which is better than what any other sector achieved.

The S&P 500 also drifted lower in afternoon trade, but before doing so it came in contact with the 1330 line, which stands just a few points below the 52-week intraday high that it set last week.

Earnings, generally positive overall, provided an encouraging backdrop to trade today. Seagate Tech (STX 25.53, +4.39) surged in response to an upside earnings surprise and strong guidance. Fellow tech play Broadcom (BRCM 37.13, +2.78) also attracted strong buying interest on the back of a better-than-expected earnings report. Whirlpool (WHR 61.64, +7.32) shares set a new multi-month high in response to an upside earnings surprise of their own.

Amazon.com (AMZN 179.46, -14.98) failed to attracted buyers following its quarterly report. The company's bottom-line beat was overshadowed by a light revenue figure and a disappointing forecast. Even with AMZN shares in such weak shape the Nasdaq managed to outperform its counterparts. Still, its performance still wasn't as strong as that of either the Russell 2000 or the S&P 400, which climbed 1.7% and 1.8%, respectively.

Advancing Sectors: Financials +1.7%, Industrials +1.1%, Materials +1.1%, Health Care +1.0%, Tech 0.9%, Consumer Staples +0.8%, Telecom +0.7%, Energy +0.5%, Utilities +0.4%, Consumer Discretionary +0.3%
Declining Sectors: (None)DJ30 +83.55 NASDAQ +34.43 NQ100 0.9% R2K +1.7% SP400 +1.8% SP500 +11.67 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1939/2.11 bln/605 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2504/893 mln/521

3:30 pm : Weakness in the energy complex left the CRB Index to fall another 0.3% today. It is now down 2.0% week to date.

Oil prices failed to sustain the buying interest that boosted prices at the beginning of pit trade. They suffered a late session slide that resulted in a loss of 0.8% as prices settled at $97.54 per barrel. Natural gas spent the entire session wrestling with aggressive selling pressure; they settled at $2.38 per MMBtu for a 4.8% loss.

Precious metals performed well, though. Specifically, gold gained 0.6% to close pit trade at $1747.10 per ounce. Silver settled with a 1.5% gain at $33.77 per ounce. DJ30 +110.56 NASDAQ +33.86 SP500 +13.89 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1900/1.64 bln/640 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2500/580 mln/500

3:00 pm : Only an hour remains in today's trade. That has many participants looking to see which companies are scheduled for earnings after the close. Among the more widely held names, Allstate (ALL 29.35, +0.50), Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG 369.52, +2.23), Las Vegas Sands (LVS 50.00, +0.89), and Qualcomm (QCOM 59.53, +0.72) are on deck. Tomorrow morning brings the latest from AstraZeneca (AZN 48.50, +0.35), Boston Scientific (BSX 6.12, +0.16), Cardinal Health (CAH 43.21, +0.18), CIGNA (CI 45.96, +1.13), Deutsche Bank (DB 44.49, +1.80), Dow Chemical (DOW 33.87, +0.36), Kellogg (K 49.54, +0.02), MasterCard (MA 357.90, +2.33), Merck (MRK 38.79, +0.52), and Sony (SNE 18.33, +0.11).DJ30 +128.13 NASDAQ +37.20 SP500 +15.76 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1905/1.50 bln/630 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2505/540 mln/490

2:30 pm : Stocks have set adrift into a sideways crawl after easing down from the session highs that were set almost an hour ago. Broad strength has seven of the 10 major sectors still sporting gains of at least 1%. Utilities (+0.5%), Consumer Discretionary (+0.6%), and Energy (+0.7%) make up the three sectors with gains less than 1%.

As has been the case all session, financials are out in front with the best gains; they're currently up 2.1%, collectively. Financials also made up the best performing sector of the prior session, even though they only advanced 0.4%. DJ30 +124.65 NASDAQ +37.73 SP500 +15.63 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1925/1.40 bln/600 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2525/500 mln/455

2:00 pm : Stocks have started to ease off of session highs. Gains remain strong and broad based, though.

The softening comes shortly after the broad market approached its 52-week intraday high. The move lower also coincides with the euro's drift downward, although the currency continues to lead the greenback by about 0.6%. DJ30 +127.53 NASDAQ +37.69 SP500 +15.64 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1940/1.28 bln/575 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2565/455 mln/400

1:30 pm : Stocks recently set new session highs, but they have since paused to take a breather. That has left the S&P 500 sitting just below the 1330 line and only a few points away from its 52-week intraday high.

The pause comes as buying momentum behind financials stalls. Financials have been drifting sideways along session highs for about an hour. That said, the sector is still sporting a gain greater than 2%. DJ30 +137.85 NASDAQ +39.85 SP500 +16.62 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1935/1.16 bln/550 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2555/415 mln/405

1:00 pm : Leadership from financials has helped stocks build on an early bounce. The broad market is now on pace for its best single-session performance in almost one month.

Early buying interest was backed by broad-based strength in Europe, where particants responded positively to a successful debt offering from financially precarious Portugal, and satisfactory PMI Manufacturing readings from key eurozone countries. Those headlines have helped strengthen the euro, which is up 0.8% against the greenback, and overshadow mixed manufacturing data from China.

Buying has persisted in the face of the latest ADP Employment Change, which may have shown an increase of 170,000 private payrolls in January, but the addition was still less than the increase of 200,000 that had been broadly expected. The ISM Manufacturing Index for January, which came in at 54.1, was also shy of the 54.5 that had been widely expected, but it did improve from the downwardly revised 53.1 that was posted for the prior month. However, construction spending during December climbed 1.5% when an increase of only 0.4% had been expected.

Market breadth remains decidedly upbeat in the wake of the mixed bag of data, but financials have been especially strong. The sector, which currently boasts a gain greater than 2%, has been out in front of the broad market since the opening bell. Leadership from financials has the S&P 500 on pace for its best one-day bounce since it climbed almost 1.6% on the first trading day of 2012.

Financials may be offering leadership, but tech plays Broadcom (BRCM 37.39, +3.04) and Seagate Tech (STX 25.77, +4.63) are a couple of high flyers following their latest quarterly reports. In contrast, Amazon.com (AMZN 178.79, -16.65) has had to endure concerted selling in the wake of a light revenue figure and issued a disappointing forecast, which have cast a pall over its upside earnings surprise. DJ30 +138.61 NASDAQ +37.55 SP500 +16.49 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1915/1.08 bln/560 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2510/390 mln/445

12:30 pm : The Nasdaq had lagged its counterparts by a narrow margin in the early going, but it has been on a steady climb for the past couple of hours. The effort has taken the Nasdaq to a new session high and even given it a slight lead over the S&P 500 and Dow.

Tech stocks have been the primary force behind the move. In particular, Broadcom (BRCM 37.15, +2.81) is a high flyer following its upside earnings surprise. However, Nasdaq constituent Amazon.com (AMZN 178.10, -16.34) has been a heavy drag after the online retailer reported a light revenue figure and issued a disappointing forecast. DJ30 +147.93 NASDAQ +37.17 SP500 +16.43 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1880/945 mln/580 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2490/+340 mln/450

12:00 pm : The stock market continues to trade alongside its session high, which is roughly in line with the 52-week closing high that it set last week. The positive tone of today's trade has taken down the Volatility Index by about 5%.DJ30 +133.35 NASDAQ +32.18 SP500 +14.07 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1855/825 mln/580 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2490/300 mln/435

11:30 am : The euro has extended its climb so that it is now up 0.8% against the greenback. Despite such a strong move, it is still down about 0.2% week to date.

Europe's bourses are in the process of settling their latest round of trade. Strong, broad-based buying there has resulted in heady gains, such that the EuroStoxx 50 is expected to settle with a gain of about 1.5%.

Among the region's major bourses, both Britain's FTSE and France's CAC climbed almost 2% while Germany's DAX advanced more than 2%. Buying was bolstered by a successful debt auction from Portugal, which many believe is at risk of suffering a fate similar to that of Greece. Also in focus was news that the eurozone Manufacturing PMI for January made an incremental improvement to 48.8 from 48.7 from the preliminary report, but any reading below 50 still suggests contraction. France's PMI stayed at 48.5 for January, but Germany's Manufacturing PMI inched up to 51.0 from 50.9 in the preliminary report. The United Kingdom saw its PMI push up to 52.1 in January from the 49.7 that was posted in the prior month. DJ30 +141.60 NASDAQ +29.77 SP500 +14.30 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1825/690 mln/570 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2490/260 mln/420

11:00 am : Following some choppy trade shortly after the open, stocks have added to their gains so that three major equity averages are now sporting gains on the order of 1%.

Financials continue to lead the effort. The sector has extended its climb so that it now trades with a gain of almost 2%. Among financial plays, Citigroup (C 31.91, +1.19), Bank of America (BAC 7.37, +0.24), and Wells Fargo (WFC 30.00, +0.91) are primary leaders. Aflac (AFL 46.91, -1.32) has failed to follow the rest of the financial sector higher following news that the company came short of the consensus earnings estimate for its latest quarter. DJ30 +146.37 NASDAQ +28.50 SP500 +14.68 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1740/530 mln/590 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2465/215 mln/400

10:55 am : The dollar index is trading lower this morning, which has been giving a boost to commodities.

In the energy space, Feb crude oil was trading higher and has been above the $99 mark for most of the morning ahead of inventory data. Crude hit a new session high of $99.37 a couple of hours ago and the fell sharply and into the red following inventory data. Crude is currently at $98.46, down 2 cents.

Feb natural gas has been in negative territory all session so far and is extending yesterday's sharp losses. Nat gas fell as low as $2.36, but has recovered almost half of its losses and is now down 3.5% at $2.42.

In the metals space, Feb gold and March silver are higher this morning with silver near its session high. Gold futures rose as high as $1751.10 and are currently showing modest gains. Meanwhile, silver almost broke through the $34 level this morning, but exactly hit $34 instead. However, the precious metal has been trading near its session high for most of the last five hours and has been in the range of $33.55-33.97. Gold is currently up +0.5% at $1745.60 and silver is up 1.7% at $33.83/oz.DJ30 +139.48 NASDAQ +25.65 SP500 +13.96 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1782/580 mln/563 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2469/233 mln/416

10:05 am : Action among stocks has become choppy as traders digest a couple of doses of data.

Market participants just got their hands on the ISM Manufacturing Index for January. It came in at 54.1, which is better not quite as strong as the 54.5 that had been expected, on average, among economists polled by Briefing.com. The January reading is up from the downwardly revised 53.1 that was posted for the prior month, though.

Separately, construction spending data for December was also recently released. It showed that construction spending climbed by 1.5%, which exceeds the consensus call for an increase of just 0.4% after spending increased by a downwardly revised 0.4% in the prior month. DJ30 +106.49 NASDAQ +15.51 SP500 +10.83 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1505/155 mln/600 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2270/90 mln/420

09:45 am : Stocks have eased off of their opening highs, but the major equity averages continue to sport solid gains. Financials, up 1% as a group, are out in front.

The financial sector also provided support in the prior session, but the broad market failed to rally around it as weakness among energy stocks undermined such efforts. Although in positive territory today, energy stocks are lagging again as they trade with a modest gain of 0.3%. DJ30 +99.94 NASDAQ +14.28 SP500 +9.55 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +9.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +11.00. Stocks are expected to start today's trade with solid gains. The upward bias comes in response to renewed buying interest in Europe after struggling Portugal successfully auctioned off some short-term debt and continental constituents like Germany, France, and the United Kingdom served up some satisfactory manufacturing numbers. There are still no reports of progress in Greece's efforts to strike a compromise with creditors, however. China posted a couple of manufacturing readings that contradicted one another in regard to industry expansion and contraction.

The U.S. will post its own manufacturing data with the release of the ISM report at 10:00 AM ET. Market participants were already dealt an ADP Employment Change that showed a solid increase in private payrolls during January, although the increase wasn't quite as strong as what had been widely expected.

On the earnings front, most reports continue to exceed what has been expected, but Amazon.com (AMZN 173.43, -21.01) posted a disappointing revenue figure and forecast that have overshadowed its better-than-expected bottom line. Note: ticker quote reflects premarket price.

Outside of equities, Treasuries have ticked down just enough to take the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note a couple of basis points back above 1.80%. Meanwhile, the dollar is down 0.5% against a collection of competing currencies, primarily the euro. The dollar's decline has made it easier for precious metals to push higher, but energy prices are mixed with natural gas prices extending their prior session slide and oil prices up ahead of a weekly oil inventory report at 10:30 AM ET.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +8.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +12.80. In early pit trade, oil prices are up 0.5% to almost $99 per barrel. The action precedes a weekly inventory report at 10:30 AM ET. Meanwhile, natural gas prices are down 4.5% to $2.39 per MMBtu in an extension of the sharp slide suffered in the prior session. Among precious metals, gold was last quoted with a 0.5% gain at $1749 per ounce, while silver is sitting at $33.81 per ounce with a 1.7% gain. Overall action in the commodity complex has the CRB Index up fractionally this morning. That leaves it down 1.7% week to date. In the backdrop, the dollar is down about 0.6% against a basket of major foreign currencies.

08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +8.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +12.30. Stock futures continue to trade with strength, but they recently eased back in response to the latest ADP Employment Change. Meanwhile, the dollar continues to trade narrowly above its morning low with a loss of about 0.5% against a collection of competing currencies. The ADP report showed that private payrolls increased during January by 170,000, which is less than the 200,000 increase that had been broadly expected among economists polled by Briefing.com. Still on the docket, the latest ISM Manufacturing Index and most recent construction spending numbers are expected at 10:00 AM ET.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +9.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +13.30. Stocks finished mixed in the prior session, but they've attracted a strong bid this morning. Buying interest comes in conjunction with another advance by Europe's major bourses, where traders have responded positively to some satisfactory Manufacturing PMI numbers from Germany, France, the United Kingdom, and the broader eurozone. The action contrasts that of China, where the country's Manufacturing PMI showed expansion in activity, but the HSBC Manufacturing PMI for the country still showed contraction.

The latest round of earnings results is also in focus. Shares of Amazon.com (AMZN 176.00, -18.44) are down sharply in response to a light revenue figure and downside guidance; together those disappointments have cast a pall over the company's upside earnings surprise. Both Broadcom (BRCM 35.38, +1.03) and Seagate Tech (STX 23.34, +2.20) posted better-than-expected results. Whirlpool (WHR 59.20, +4.88) also exceeded earnings expectations. Note: ticker quotes reflect premarket prices.

The ADP Employment Change will be posted at 8:15 AM ET, giving market participants what is widely regarded as a preview of the official payrolls report scheduled for Friday. The latest ISM Manufacturing Index and most recent monthly construction spending numbers are expected at 10:00 AM ET. Also on the calendar today is the latest weekly oil inventory report at 10:30 AM ET. Monthly motor vehicle sales will be released intermittently during the day.

06:25 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +10.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +14.00.

06:25 am : Nikkei...8809.79...+7.30...+0.10%. Hang Seng...20333.37...-57.10...-0.30%.

06:25 am : FTSE...5761.55...+79.90...+1.40%. DAX...6585.45...+126.50...+2.00%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

Phone: +1.708.572.4885
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