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 Post subject: February 29th Wednesday 2012 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +16.80
PostPosted: Wed Feb 29, 2012 10:38 pm 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)

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click on the above image to view today's performance verification

Price Action Trade Performance for Today: +16.80 points or $1680 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, all trades were posted real-time in the free #FuturesTrades chat room. You can read today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs for details (e.g. time, price, contract size) about each one of my trades from entry to exit along with price action commentary as the trade traversed in comparison to what's shown in the above image...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=101&t=1152.

To join our free chat room...registration instructions located at a different forum @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=630

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my price action trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our price action trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=149&t=1370

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Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/IMF actions or any important global economic events that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables (key market events) causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that results in swing points and strong continuation price actions. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for my technical analysis. Just as important, these summaries becomes my archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past...something I can not get from my broker statements alone.

Big Moves In Bonds, Gold, Silver; Stocks End Flat

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click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- While stocks ended slightly lower, Wednesday's biggest market moves were in the bond, commodity and currency markets -- with 10-year Treasury yields surging higher and the price of gold, silver and the euro dropping dramatically.

Stocks ended February with a whimper. All three indexes moved down modestly as investors weighed a mix of positive U.S. economic reports and testimony from Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke hinting at the end of intervention to boost the market.

Despite modest losses Wednesday, all three indexes closed out the month and year with significant gains.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 2.5% in February and 6% for the year. The S&P added 4.1% in February and 8.6% in 2012. The Nasdaq, which briefly crested above the 3,000 mark Wednesday, moved up 5.4% for the month and 14% for the year.

There was plenty of drama Wednesday in the commodities and currencies markets. It started moments after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke began testifying before Congress at 10 a.m. Wednesday. Yields on 10-year Treasuries shot above 2% from 1.94% within minutes.
Europe needs a bigger financial firewall

Almost immediately, prices on gold dropped more than 4%, and the euro also dropped from $1.3460 to $1.3400.

Traders speculate that it may have been a large Treasury trade gone awry that caused many computer trading models to react, kicking off a chain reaction in gold, silver and in the euro.

Gold futures settled down more than 4%, and silver closed down nearly 7%. The euro ended the day at $1.345 - not far from where it began the trading day.

Many traders saw the morning as reminiscent of the so-called "flash crash" of May 2010 when the Dow lost 1000 points within minutes and then regained most of the losses.

"It's very strange that this happened specifically at the time it did," said Douglas Borthwick, managing director at Faros Trading. "Everyone is searching around in the dark trying to find out what happened."

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) dropped 53 points, or 0.4%for the day. The S&P 500 (SPX) shed 7 points, or 0.5%. The Nasdaq (COMP) lost 20 points, or 0.7%.
0:00 / 1:45 Shiny Apple, flat SODA

Investors grew somewhat wary after Bernanke failed to give hope during his speech to Congress that the Fed would continue to offer monetary support to the market.

"There was some lingering hope, a desperate hope maybe, that more quantitative easing could be coming," said Paul Ashworth, chief U.S. economist at Capital Economics. "That's why we've been seeing stocks move down since he started talking."

The Nasdaq crossed the 3,000 mark Wednesday morning for the first time since December 2000, yet the tech-heavy index quickly dropped. Apple's shares, which hit a record high Wednesday, contributed to the Nasdaq's run-up.

On Tuesday, the Dow closed above 13,000 for the first time since May 2008. The S&P 500 closed at its highest level since June 2008.

Before U.S. markets opened, the European Central Bank announced results of its second Long-Term Refinancing Operation, a program designed to let banks borrow money for 3 years at interest rates as low as 1%. The central bank said it will lend €529.5 billion, or $721.4 billion, to European banks, more than the €500 billion it doled out during the program's first round in December.

Meanwhile, the U.S. government said the country's economy grew at an annual rate of 3% during the fourth quarter, up from its initial estimate of 2.8%.

Investors continue to keep a close eye on oil and rising gas prices. On Wednesday, gas prices rose for the 22nd straight day, but U.S. crude oil prices continue to decline.

World markets: European stocks closed mixed. Britain's FTSE 100 (UKX) and the DAX (DAX) in Germany slipped slightly, while France's CAC 40 (CAC40) added 0.3%.

Asian markets ended mixed. The Shanghai Composite (SHCOMP) dropped 1%, while the Hang Seng (HSI) in Hong Kong added 0.5% and Japan's Nikkei (N225) ended just above breakeven.
0:00 / 2:38 Imagining a world without Iran's oil

Economy: The February installment of the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index came in higher than expected at 64, above January levels and still well above the 50 threshold that signifies manufacturing expansion.

The Federal Reserve also released its outlook report, which said that overall economic activity continued to increase at a modest to moderate pace in January and early February. The Fed's Beige Book, which is a summary of outlooks from the 12 district banks across the country, found that manufacturing continues to expand.

Companies: Apple (AAPL, Fortune 500) shares moved higher, boosting the company's value on the stock market to above $500 billion -- another record high for what was already the world's most valuable company.

Shares of News Corp (NWSA, Fortune 500). rose after the media company announced that James Murdoch stepped down as executive chairman of the U.K. publishing unit. The son of Rupert Murdoch has been embroiled in questions over his role in a U.K. hacking scandal.

Shares of First Solar (FSLR) tumbled after the leading maker of thin-film solar panels issued disappointing quarterly results. First Solar also lowered its forecast for sales in 2012 late Tuesday.

Shares of Staples (SPLS, Fortune 500) fell even though the office supply retailer posted better-than-expected earnings and sales figures for the fiscal fourth quarter.

Costco (COST, Fortune 500) topped earnings and sales estimates for the fiscal second quarter, sending the stock higher.

Shares of Liz Claiborne (LIZ) fell despite posting fourth-quarter earnings in line with expectations, and better-than-expected sales.
Gas prices spike 8% in February

Currencies and commodities: The dollar rose against the euro, but fell versus the Japanese yen and the British pound.

Oil for April delivery added 52 cents to $107.07 a barrel.

Gold futures for April delivery fell $77.10 to $1,711.30 an ounce.

Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury fell, pushing the yield up to 1.98%.

Image

Market Update

4:30 pm : Stocks attempted to return to positive territory after a mid-morning reversal took the major equity averages into the red, but resistance at the neutral line invited sellers to redouble their efforts and drop stocks for marked losses.

The Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq each traded up to new multi-year highs in the early going, but the move was short lived. Traders turned on stocks when prepared remarks for Fed Chairman Bernanke's semiannual FOMC report to the House Financial Services Committee began to circulate. His comments contained no surprises, but likely disappointed some because they also failed to offer reassurance that the Fed remains committed to an accommodative monetary policy, especially after fourth quarter GDP data was revised upward.

Fourth quarter GDP grew at a clip of 3.0%, which is greater than the 2.8% that had been reported in the advance reading. No revision had been expected.

A stronger economic picture was painted by a Chicago PMI of 64.0 for February. That exceeded the reading of 60.0 that had been broadly expected to follow the prior month reading of 60.2.

Later in the day the Fed's Beige Book reported that overall economic activity continued to increase at a modest to moderate pace in January and early February.

Although the macro picture continues to improve, many market participants are questioning if that is priced into the stock market now that the S&P 500 has climbed about 10% year to date and sits at levels not seen since 2008. The interest in taking some risk off of the table likely played a part in the stock market's intraday pullback and then its inability to return to higher ground.

Financials offered leadership in the early going. The sector ran up to a gain of about 1% before encountering any headwinds. It settled the session with a 0.5% loss.

Materials stocks were among the worst performers. The sector slumped 1.7% as many metals and mining issues took a hit in conjunction with a slump in precious metals prices. Silver settled with a 7.0% loss at $34.58 per ounce while gold prices closed at $1710 per ounce for a 4.4% loss after both had put on impressive performances in the prior session.

Oil managed to score a gain after two days of selling, though. Crude oil futures contract prices climbed 0.5% to close pit trade $107.09 per barrel even after weekly inventory data showed a bigger-than-expected build of more than 4 million barrels.

The Dollar Index set a two-month low yesterday, but it rallied to a 0.7% gain today. Most of that move is owed to weakness in the euro, which tumbled about 1.1% to about $1.33. Earlier today it was learned that the European Central Bank made more than $700 billion available to the continent's banks in the form of three-year loans.

Advancing Sectors: Consumer Staples +0.3%
Declining Sectors: Telecom -0.1%, Utilities -0.1%, Consumer Discretionary -0.1%, Financials -0.5%, Health Care -0.5%, Industrials -0.5%, Tech -0.5%, Energy -1.0%, Materials -1.7%DJ30 -53.05 NASDAQ -19.87 NQ100 -0.4% R2K -1.6% SP400 -0.6% SP500 -6.50 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 656/2.11 bln/1911 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1029/1.11 bln/1979

3:30 pm : Oil prices oscillated throughout the day, but were able to muster a 0.5% gain by closing pit trade at $107.09 per barrel. Weekly inventory data showed a bigger-than-expected build of more than 4 million barrels.

Natural gas put together an impressive performance after slumping in the prior session. The energy component closed at $2.61 per MMBtu for a 3.6%.

Precious metals prices were dropped for sharp losses. Specifically, silver settled with a 7.0% loss at $34.58 per ounce after it pushed up to a multi-month closing high in the prior session. Gold prices closed at $1710 per ounce for a 4.4% loss. DJ30 -39.81 NASDAQ -15.71 SP500 -4.88 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 785/1.50 bln/1745 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1175/515 mln/1800

3:00 pm : Stocks are still stuck near the neutral line as they enter the final hour of the day. Greif (GEF 51.24, -0.33) and PetSmart (PETM 55.73, +0.00) are scheduled to report after the close. Kroger (KR 23.85, +0.07) reports tomorrow morning.

Tomorrow's economic calendar features weekly initial jobless claims, monthly personal income and spending numbers, the latest ISM Manufacturing Index, and monthly construction spending numbers. Fed Chairman Bernanke will deliver his semiannual monetary policy report to the Senate Banking Committee, but his comments are unlikely to deviate from those delivered to the House Financial Services Committee today. DJ30 -34.85 NASDAQ -13.02 SP500 -4.02 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 850/1.35 bln/1660 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1250/465 mln/1705

2:30 pm : The S&P 500 recently poked into positive territory, but it was unable to build on the move. The lack of follow through has left the broad market average to slip back below the flat line so that it trades with a fractional loss.

Meanwhile, the greenback continues to garner buying interest. As such, it now leads a basket of major foreign currencies by little more than 0.5%. Just yesterday the dollar was at a two-month low relative to a collection of competing currencies. Most of the greenback's gain comes in conjunction with a sharp decline by the euro, which is now down 1.0% to $1.334. DJ30 -4.01 NASDAQ -3.77 SP500 -0.50 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 970/1.26 bln/1535 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1410/435 mln/1555

2:05 pm : The stock market's struggle to return to positive territory continues, but it has successfully refused efforts to send it deeper into negative territory. As such, the broad market remains mired near the neutral line.

The Fed's latest Beige Book was just released, but stocks haven't had any real reaction to it. In short, it suggested that overall economic activity in the dozen Fed districts continued to increase at a modest to moderate pace in January and early February. Reports of consumer spending were generally positive except for sales of seasonal items. DJ30 -0.11 NASDAQ -3.14 SP500 -0.19 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 900/1.16 bln/1570 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1320/400 mln/1615

1:30 pm : The major equity averages continue to drift along narrowly beneath the neutral line. The struggle to return to positive territory comes after strong action in the early going, when the broad market extended its climb by reaching its best intraday level since 2008.

Treasuries continue to trade with weakness, despite the stock market's difficulty in reclaiming its gains. That has the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note at 2.00%. DJ30 -12.18 NASDAQ -5.81 SP500 -1.75 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 965/1.06 bln/1485 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1395/365 mln/1530

1:00 pm : Early buying lifted the major equity averages to new multi-year highs, but stocks rolled over when the risk trade was abruptly turned off.

Led by Financials, stocks worked their way to modest gains this morning. In the backdrop was news that the economy expanded during the fourth quarter at a 3.0% clip, rather than the 2.8% pace posted in the advance report, but market participants actually showed little excitement when that announcement was made ahead of the open.

Despite the strong start, stocks ran into a barrage of selling that began right around the time the Nasdaq came in touch with the 3,000 mark -- last touched little more than 11 years ago -- and Fed Chairman Bernanke's prepared remarks for a semiannual FOMC report to the House Financial Services Committee. Bernanke's comments contained no surprise, but they also lacked any kind of reaffirmed commitment to an accommodative monetary policy.

Selling pressure compounded to take the major equity averages into the red. They've worked their way up from session lows, but have been unable to break back into positive ground.

The effort to pare risk has imbued the commodity complex, especially precious metals prices. Gold was last quoted with a 3.7% loss at $1722 per ounce, while silver is sitting at $35.00 per ounce with a 6.0% loss. Oil prices are also off; they were last quoted with a 0.9% loss at $105.60 per barrel. Overall weakness has the CRB Index down 0.6%.

A traditional safe haven, the dollar has attracted buying interest so that it trades with a 0.5% gain against a basket of major foreign currencies. Most of its move has come against the euro, which is down 0.9% to about $1.34. Earlier this morning the European Central Bank disclosed that it recently issued more than $700 billion in three-year loans to the continent's banks. DJ30 -3.59 NASDAQ -3.23 SP500 -1.25 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 905/995 mln/1540 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1300/340 mln/1615

12:30 pm : All three major equity averages are now near the neutral line. That marks a rebound high for them.

Leadership is lacking since the early going, when financials ran out in front of the rest of the market to a gain of about 1%. Financials rolled over with the rest of the market to trade with a loss, but the sector has worked its way back up to a 0.2% gain.

Consumer Staples stocks actually stand as the best performing sector, although the group is up just 0.3%. Dean Foods (DF 12.39, +0.15) and Campbell Soup (CPB 33.44, +0.29) are top performers in the space. DJ30 -2.95 NASDAQ -1.71 SP500 -0.73 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 940/875 mln/1500 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1290/300 mln/1600

12:00 pm : Stocks are trying to rebound after the broad market's recent retreat to a session low. The Nasdaq is now nearing the neutral line.

The dollar has modestly extended its advance so that it now leads a collection of competing currencies by about 0.4%. The move comes as market participants show a preference for less risky assets. DJ30 -33.34 NASDAQ -4.09 SP500 -2.82 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 845/810 mln/1585 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1150/275 mln/1735

11:30 am : The Dow and S&P 500 have buckled under renewed selling pressure and are now at new session lows. The Nasdaq has yet to confirm the move as it probes the depths set during its initial reversal from the climb this morning.

Precious metals have been cut down aggressively by a concerted selling effort. Gold prices are now down 4.0% to $1717 per ounce while silver has slumped to a 7.3% loss at $34.50 per ounce. The slump in precious metals prices and the broad equity market's decline have weighed heavily on names like Newmont Mining (NEM 59.83, -2.17) and Barrick Gold (ABX 47.95, -1.51). DJ30 -56.23 NASDAQ -13.08 SP500 -5.96 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 820/678 mln/1560 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1210/230 mln/1660

11:00 am : Fed Chairman's prepared remarks for the House Financial Services Committee contained no surprises, but they also failed to offer any kind of hint about changes or commitments to current monetary policy following news this morning of an upwardly revised fourth quarter GDP reading.

The stock market's reversal from its opening advance coincided with the release of Bernanke's remarks. Stocks have since extended their slide into negative territory, but action appears to be stabilizing.

Meanwhile, the dollar has staged an advance so that it now leads a basket of major foreign currencies by 0.3%. Most of that move is owed to weakness in the euro, which is down 0.7% to about $1.34. Earlier today it was learned that the European Central Bank made more than $700 billion available to the continent's banks in the form of three-year loans. DJ30 -45.25 NASDAQ -8.95 SP500 -3.79 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1030/525 mln/1300 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1345/180 mln/1485

10:45 am : The dollar index rallied sharply moments ago, which caused most commodities to sell-off.

In energy, Apr crude oil has spent electronic trading in positive territory, taking a dip right before floor trading opened. However, crude rallied during the morning session reaching a new morning session high of $107.36. However, this was short-lived as crude sold off below the $107 level. Following the inventory data, which showed a build of 4.16 mln barrels, well above the 1.1 mln consensus, crude sold off further and is now -0.2% at $106.33/barrel.

Apr natural gas has also been in the black for the vast majority of the morning and is now +0.7% at $2.54/MMBtu.

In metals, Apr gold and May silver have sold off sharply this morning and hit new session lows. Gold just fell to a new session low of $1767.80 and is now -1.0% at $1770.50/oz and silver is -1.2% at $36.78/oz.DJ30 -3.18 NASDAQ +0.26 SP500 -0.53 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 943/523 mln/1400 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1310/184 mln/1524

10:00 am : Stocks are starting to slip after staging a strong opening climb, but the major equity averages have maintained modest gains. The action comes as the Nasdaq flirts with 3,000 and the semiannual FOMC report to the House Financial Services Committee hits newswires.

Financials remain a primary source of strength. The sector ran up to an early gain on the order of 1%, but now trades with a gain of about 0.7%, which is still better than what any other sector has achieved this morning. Financials are currently led by diversified banks and lenders and also heavyweights in the diversified financial services industry, including Citigroup (C 33.84, +0.36) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM 39.66, +0.45). DJ30 +40.11 NASDAQ +10.57 SP500 +4.93 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1340/110 mln/740 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1935/55 mln/705

09:45 am : Buying in the early going has pushed the broad market to a new three-year intraday high. The latest leg of gains has come amid leadership from financials, which have run ahead to a 0.7% gain.

A pleasing Chicago PMI for February has provided a positive backdrop. The report scored a reading of 64.0, which is greater than the reading of 60.0 that had been broadly expected to follow the prior month reading of 60.2. DJ30 +43.90 NASDAQ +8.05 SP500 +4.66 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +2.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.30. Stock futures are still clinging to an incremental lead over fair value. The response to a surprise upward revision in fourth quarter GDP has been positive, but contained as market participants shift their focus to the semiannual FOMC report from Fed Chairman Bernanke to the House Financial Services Committee at 10:00 AM ET. Bernanke's comments come as many question whether stocks can extend their climb now that the broad market is at its best level in more than three years, upward momentum has slowed, and share volume remains paltry.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +2.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.80. Oil prices fell in each of the past two trading sessions, but are flat at $106.55 per barrel in the opening minutes of pit trade. Oil prices had actually traded higher earlier this morning in electronic trade. Prices could see further volatility with the release of weekly inventory numbers at 10:30 AM ET. Natural gas prices are currently up 0.8% to $2.65 per MMBtu after a pronounced drop in the prior session. Meanwhile, precious metals are under modest pressure following the gains that they scored yesterday. Selling has gold down 0.3% to $1784 per ounce and silver sitting at $37.10 per ounce with a 0.3% loss.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +3.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.80. Stock futures got a small lift in the wake of some pleasing data, but the overall tone ahead of the open remains only moderately positive.

Fourth quarter GDP was revised upward to reflect growth of 3.0% rather than the 2.8% that had been reported in the advance reading. Economists polled by Briefing.com had generally expected no change to the advance number. The GDP Deflator for the fourth quarter was also upwardly revised so that it showed a 0.9% increase. Most economists had expected it to continue showing the 0.4% increase that was reported in the advance reading.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +2.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.30. Stock futures are narrowly above the neutral line after Asia's major averages had a mixed night and Europe's primary bourses now sport varied gains amid news that the European Central Bank made more than $700 billion in three-year loans available to the continent's banks.

Corporate news flow is relatively light, but there's a substantial helping of economic items on tap for today. Market participants get their hands on the preliminary fourth quarter GDP reading at 8:30 AM ET. Economists polled by Briefing.com expect, on average, that it will go unrevised from the 2.8% increase announced in the advance reading. Results from the latest survey of business conditions in the Chicago area -- the city's PMI -- are scheduled for 9:45 AM ET. Of broader appeal, though, is a speech from Fed Chairman Bernanke, who is schedueld to deliver the Federal Open Market Committee's semiannual report to the House Financial Services Committee at 10:00 AM ET. The Fed's latest Beige Book will be released later today; it is due at 2:00 PM ET.

06:52 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +3.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.30.

06:52 am : Nikkei...9723.24...+0.70...0.00. Hang Seng...21680.08...+111.40...+0.50%.

06:52 am : FTSE...5920.66...-7.30...-0.10%. DAX...6918.52...+30.90...+0.50%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader, http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader and http://chart.ly/users/wrbtrader

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