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 Post subject: January 26th Thursday 2012 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +15.80
PostPosted: Thu Jan 26, 2012 11:33 pm 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)

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click on the above image to view today's performance verification

Trade Performance for Today: +15.80 points or $1580 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, all trades were posted real-time in the free #FuturesTrades chat room. Today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs provides details (e.g. time, price, contract size) about each one of my trades from entry to exit along with price action commentary as the trade traversed...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=100&t=1124.

To join our free chat room...registration instructions located at a different forum @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=630

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=148&t=1341

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Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/IMF actions or any important global economic events that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables (key market events) causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that results in swing points and strong continuation price actions. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for my technical analysis. Just as important, these summaries becomes my archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past...something I can not get from my broker statements alone.

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Market Update

4:30 pm : An early advance by stocks put the broad market at its best level since summer, but without any real source of leadership stocks were unable to resist the efforts of sellers. The move to take profits resulted in a gradual descent that left the major averages to settle with varied losses.

Stocks were able to build on the prior sesson's advance because of an early bid that was mostly brought about by big gains among Europe's bourses, which bounded in response to rumors regarding Greece's progress in its debt dealings.

Earnings announcements generated some stock-specific buying ahead of the open, but overall the lot wasn't very exciting. Blue chips 3M (MMM 87.58, +1.10) and Caterpillar (CAT 111.31, +2.26) bested expectations for the bottom line, but AT&T (T 29.45, -0.76) came short of the consensus estmate. Among other widely held names, Netflix (NFLX 116.01, +20.97) posted an upside earnings surprise, but both Noble (NE 34.81, +0.02) and Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY 32.48, -0.22) disappointed. Colgate-Palmolive (CL 91.35, +1.91) announced in-line earnings.

Economic data was relatively mixed in that total durable goods orders and orders less autos for December increased more than had been expected, weekly initial jobless claims made an in-line increase to 377,000, new home sales eased down unexpectedly to an annualized rate of 307,000 units for December, and leading indicators for December made a smaller-than-expected increase of 0.4%.

The broad market was up with a modest gain for only a short while before it began to falter. Its slip invited a gradualy selling effort that took stocks to session lows in the final hour. The Dow actually did a decent job of fighting off selling pressure through the first half of the day, but ultimately the blue chip average joined its counterparts in negative territory.

A retreat by the euro coincided with the stock market's downward drift. It had been up markedly in morning trade, but was flat against the greenback by session's end.

Utilities represented the only sector that managed to settle in positive territory. Their 0.3% gain came without any real catalyst, but could reflect some early rotation efforts by traders. After it climbed about 15% in 2011, the defensive-oriented sector is currently down about 2% year to date.

Treasuries traded higher amid the stock market's weakness. They showed little response to results from an auction of 7-year Notes that drew a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.73, dollar demand of $79.2 billion, and an indirect bidder participation rate of 31.8%. For comparison, an average of the past six auctions gives a bid-to-cover of 2.81, dollar demand of $81.6 billion, and an indirect bidder rate of 41.5%.

Advancing Sectors: Utilities +0.3%
Declining Sectors: Consumer Discretionary -0.1%, Materials -0.2%, Industrials -0.2%, Consumer Staples -0.4%, Health Care -0.4%, Tech -0.6%, Financials -0.9%, Energy -1.3%, Telecom -1.9%DJ30 -22.33 NASDAQ -13.03 NQ100 -0.5% R2K -0.3% SP400 -0.7% SP500 -7.60 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1137/2.02 bln/1376 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1473/866 mln/1533

3:30 pm : The CRB Index settled with a 0.3% gain after it had been up sharply this morning. Still, it will enter Friday riding a 2.4% weekly gain.

Oil prices were up in excess of 1% this morning, but it pulled back in afternoon trade. The commodity closed pit trade with a 0.2% gain at $99.65 per barrel.

News that weekly natural gas inventories experienced a greater draw down than had been expected helped relieve some selling pressure from natural gas, but ultimately the energy component traded lower to settle the session with a 4.4% loss at $2.61 per MMBtu. It was the commodity's first loss of the week.

Precious metals posted impressive gains. Specifically, gold prices advanced to $1726.60 per ounce for a 1.5% gain, while silver settled with a 2.2% gain at $33.73 per ounce after it had wavered a bit mid-session. DJ30 -40.23 NASDAQ -20.05 SP500 -10.19 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1075/1.64 bln/1420 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1420/590 mln/1565

3:00 pm : The major equity averages remain mired in the red with modest losses. The action comes in contrast to early trade, when stocks were sporting solid gains. The market's reversal comes as stocks struggled to hold those gains and participants opted to take profits, as if sensing weakness. That has left the S&P 500 sitting only fractionally higher for the week, jeopardizing what could be its fourth straight weekly advance.DJ30 -27.97 NASDAQ -16.58 SP500 -8.87 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1070/1.46 bln/1420 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1445/530 mln/1540

2:30 pm : Stocks continue to drift lower. The descent has the major market averages at session lows. Even the Dow has joined its counterparts in the red.

Although stocks were bid higher in the early going, they never really displayed any form of leadership. That lack of leadership continues this afternoon, making it difficult for stocks to fight back against the selling effort. DJ30 -15.03 NASDAQ -12.89 SP500 -70.66 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1130/1.35 bln/1365 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1540/490 mln/1435

2:00 pm : A recent move to session lows forced the Dow into negative territory, but it has managed to fight its way back to the flat line. Meanwhile, its counterparts remain in the red with modest losses.

The stock market's recent slip coincides with a pullback by the euro, which is now fighting to maintain a fractional gain against the greenback after it had traded with a strong gain this morning and early afternoon. The euro remains on pace for a weekly gain of almost 1.5%. DJ30 -0.84 NASDAQ -9.81 SP500 -6.06 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1065/1.27 bln/1420 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1475/460 mln/1490

1:30 pm : Results from an auction of 7-year Notes were released at 1:00 PM ET. They featured a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.73, dollar demand of $79.2 billion, and an indirect bidder participation rate of 31.8%. For comparison, the prior auction drew a bid-to-cover of 2.68, dollar demand of $77.7 billion, and an indirect bidder rate of 42.0%, while an average of the past six auctions gives a bid-to-cover of 2.81, dollar demand of $81.6 billion, and an indirect bidder rate of 41.5%.

Treasuries really haven't moved much in the wake of the auction. That has kept the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note narrowly beneath 1.95% and the yield on the 7-year Note at 1.32%. DJ30 +14.60 NASDAQ -8.42 SP500 -4.12 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1175/1.15 bln/1270 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1665/420 mln/1290

1:00 pm : The broad market worked its way up to a modest gain in the early going, but once the move appeared to come under pressure participants began to make a more concerted push against stocks. Their efforts have left both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq in the red, but the Dow is holding steady narrowly above the neutral line.

Early strength was widely attributed to improved sentiment in Europe, where the region's major bourses bounced in response to chatter that Greece may be progressing in its efforts strike a compromise with its creditors. Such a notion also helped prop up the euro, which continues to trade with a solid lead over the greenback.

Although earnings announcements overall haven't been that exciting, upside surprises from blue chips 3M (MMM 87.69, +1.21) and Caterpillar (CAT 112.13, +3.08) have been met positively by participants. Corresponding strength has helped keep both the industrials sector and the Dow Jones Industrial Average out of the red to trade with narrow gains. Meanwhile, fellow Dow component AT&T (T 29.57, -0.64), which came short of the consensus earnings estimate, has been weak all session. It has dragged down the telecom sector to a 1.3% loss.

Materials and utilities make up the only other sectors in positive territory; both are up 0.5% for the day. Owens-Illinois (OI 24.43, +1.21) has been a leader in the materials space, thanks to a pleasing quarterly report, but utilities are seeing broader buying as traders rotate into the defensive-oriented sector, despite its relatively rocky start to 2012.

Market participants got their greatest helping of economic data since last week with the release of several reports. Weekly initial jobless claims proved in-line with expectations, but durable goods orders for December bested what had been anticipated. New home sales for December made an unexpected decline from the prior month, while monthly leading indicators increased less than had been forecasted. DJ30 +14.60 NASDAQ -8.42 SP500 -4.15 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1100/1.07 bln/1345 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1580/395 mln/1360

12:30 pm : Stocks recently slipped another leg lower, notching new session lows in the process. The Dow was able to get some support at the flat line, though, so it has managed to remain out of the red.

Weakness among stocks has helped drive Treasuries higher, such that the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note is now narrowly below 1.95%. The top of the hour brings results from an auction of 7-year Notes, which are currently yielding 1.32%. DJ30 +10.29 NASDAQ -9.28 SP500 -4.54 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1130/945 mln/1295 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1635/355 mln/1280

12:00 pm : Utilities stocks were laggards in the early going, but the sector has been attracting buyers in the face of the broad market's recent slide. In fact, utilities are now at session highs and sporting a collective gain of 0.5%, which is second only to the materials sector's 0.6% gain.

Despite their performance this session, utilities have been a bit shaky in 2012. The sector is currently down about 2% year to date, while the broad market is up about 5% in the same time. The rotation out of the sector comes after utilities outperformed every other sector in 2011 with a climb of about 15%. DJ30 +13.77 NASDAQ -6.88 SP500 -3.53 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1185/835 mln/1220 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1705/320 mln/1180

11:30 am : Stocks have stabilized after falling into negative territory. Financials have become a drag after they had made a strong move higher in the early going. At its session high, the group was up about 1%, but is now wrestling with a 0.5% loss. That comes after the sector eked out a narrow gain of only 0.2% in the prior session.

Morgan Stanley (MS 18.32, +0.19) and Citigroup (C 30.50, +0.54) are still showing strength, as is Invesco (IVZ 22.90, +0.72) after it posted an upside earnings surprise. However, E*TRADE (ETFC 8.34, -1.02) and Raymond James (RJF 34.24, -0.05) are both in the red after failing to meet the earnings that Wall Street had expected of them. DJ30 +37.91 NASDAQ -2.95 SP500 -1.49 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1135/725 mln/1245 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1595/285 mln/1250

11:00 am : Selling pressure has picked up in recent trade, resulting in a loss for both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq after each had traded with a solid gain in the early going. The Dow is at a session low, but it has managed to remain in positive territory with help from 3M (MMM 87.40, +0.92) and Caterpillar (CAT 112.67, +3.62), both of which bested expectations for the bottom line of their latest quarterly reports. However, their strength is being partly offset by weakness in AT&T (T 29.47, -0.74), which posted earnings that came short of the consensus estimate.DJ30 +24.70 NASDAQ -5.34 SP500 -2.18 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1170/525 mln/1145 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1615/220 mln/1210

10:35 am : Natural gas prices experienced a brief spike higher in the minutes that immediately followed the latest weekly inventory report, which showed a draw of 192 bcf when a draw of 180 bcf had been widely expected, but prices have since turned lower to trade with a 1.8% loss at $2.72 per MMBtu.

Oil continues to display strength, however. The energy component was last quoted at $100.60 per barrel, which makes for a 1.2% gain.

Precious metals are also in positive territory, but silver has eased back from its morning high. Silver was last quoted at $33.35 per ounce, which makes for a 0.7% gain, but it was up almost as high as $33.80 per ounce earlier this morning. Meanwhile, gold continues to trade with a strong gain of about 1.4% at $1724 per ounce. DJ30 +37.16 NASDAQ -0.94 SP500 -0.84 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1380/430 mln/920 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1835/180 mln/955

10:05 am : Stocks have slipped in recent trade. The effort to pare gains comes in response to the latest data doses.

New home sales for December eased down to an annualized rate of 307,000 units from a rate of 314,000 units in the prior month. Economists polled by Briefing.com had actually expected, on average, that the pace of sales would increase to a rate of 321,000.

Leading indicators for December were also recently released. They increased by 0.4%, but that was still less than the 0.7% increase that had been widely anticipated. DJ30 +55.65 NASDAQ +12.10 SP500 +5.09 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1405/158 mln/720 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1885/88 mln/730

09:45 am : The major equity averages are up with modest gains this morning, but the advance is still enough to put the broad market at its best level since summer.

For the second straight session materials stocks are sporting some of the strongest gains. As a group they are up 1.3%. Owens-Illinois (OI 24.60, +1.38) is a top performer in the materials space following the company's upside earnings surprise.

In contrast, telecom is lagging after integrated giant AT&T (T 29.48, -0.73) came short of the consensus earnings estimate. Telecom stocks are collectively down 1.2%. DJ30 +53.20 NASDAQ +10.01 SP500 +3.96 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +4.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +7.80. Buying interest, albeit modest, ahead of the open has stock futures pointing to a positive start to today's trade. Earnings haven't been entirely exciting this morning, but premarket participants have responded positively to renewed strength in Europe, where there has been chatter that Greece may be making progress in its efforts to revise terms with its creditors. The euro has also benefited from buying interest; it currently leads the greenback by about 0.4%.

The dollar's weakness and the generally positive tone to premarket trade have spread into the commodity complex, resulting in a 0.9% gain for the CRB Index. Following three consecutive climbs, though, natural gas is under pressure ahead of its weekly inventory report at 10:30 AM ET.

Economic data has thus far featured an in-line weekly initial jobless claims tally and a better-than-expected report on durable goods orders during December. Still to come are monthly new home sales numbers and leading indicators at 10:00 AM ET.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +4.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +7.50. Most commodities are up this morning, building on their prior session advance. Collective strength has the CRB Index up 0.9% this morning, and up 3.0% week-to-date. Crude oil prices are up 1.6% to $101 per barrel in the opening minutes of pit trade. However, natural gas prices are under pressure after staging three consecutive climbs. The energy component was last quoted with a 1.8% loss at $2.72 per MMBtu. Weekly natural gas inventory numbers are due at 10:30 AM ET. Both gold and silver are sporting strong gains. Specifically, gold prices have gained 1.6% to trade at $1727 per ounce, while silver sports a 1.4% gain at $33.59 per ounce.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +4.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.80. Stock futures continue to trade with modest strength following a couple of doses of data. Durable goods orders for December were up 3.0%, which is greater than the 2.0% increase that had been generally anticipated among economists polled by Briefing.com. Orders for the prior month were revised upward to reflect an increase of 4.3%. Excluding autos, durable goods orders were up 2.1%, which is triple the increase that had been commonly expected. Prior month orders less autos were revised upward to reflect an increase of 0.5%.

Separately, initial jobless claims for the week ended January 21 totaled 377,000, which is in stride with the 375,000 initial claims that had been expected, on average, among economists surveyed by Briefing.com. The latest tally marks a jump of 21,000 from the prior week. Meanwhile, continuing claims climbed to 3.55 million from 3.47 million.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +2.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.30. Market participants are providing stock futures with a modest bid after the broad market booked its best close in several months yesterday. Sentiment has been helped by renewed strength in Europe and a bounce by the euro, which is currently up about 0.3% against the greenback.

Early traders are taking into the latest round of earnings, which include better-than-expected results from 3M (MMM 87.36, +0.88), Caterpillar (CAT 112.36, +3.31), and Netflix (NFLX 113.00, +17.96), but misses by Noble (NE 34.80, +0.01), AT&T (T 29.70, -0.51), and Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY 32.55, -0.15). Colgate-Palmolive (CL 89.19, -0.25) posted in-line earnings results. Note: ticker quotes reflect premarket prices.

The flow of economic data picks up today. Monthly durable goods orders numbers are due at the bottom of the hour, along with the latest weekly initial jobless claims count. Monthly new home sales and leading indicators follow at 10:00 AM ET. Also on the calendar are weekly natural gas inventories, which are due at 10:30 AM ET, and results from an auction of 7-year Notes at 1:00 PM ET.

06:30 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +1.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.50.

06:30 am : Nikkei...8849.47...-34.20...-0.40%. Hang Seng...20439.14...+328.80...+1.60%.

06:30 am : FTSE...5780.72...+57.70...+1.00%. DAX...6502.31...+80.50...+1.30%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

Phone: +1.708.572.4885
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