TheStrategyLab.com Price Action Trading Support Forum

Forum for price action traders that want to learn WRB Analysis basic tutorial chapters 1, 2 and 3 prior to purchasing our advance trade methods. Hashtags: #wrbanalysis #wrbzone #wrbhiddengap #priceaction #trading
It is currently Thu Mar 28, 2024 5:10 am

All times are UTC - 5 hours [ DST ]




Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 1 post ] 
Author Message
 Post subject: January 25th Wednesday 2012 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +14.30
PostPosted: Thu Jan 26, 2012 1:31 am 
Offline
Site Admin

Joined: Sat Jan 10, 2009 2:06 pm
Posts: 4335
Location: Canada
Image

Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)

Attachment:
012512-wrbtrader-PnL-Blotter-Profit-1430.png
012512-wrbtrader-PnL-Blotter-Profit-1430.png [ 74.97 KiB | Viewed 264 times ]

click on the above image to view today's performance verification

Trade Performance for Today: +14.30 points or $1430 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, all trades were posted real-time in the free #FuturesTrades chat room. Today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs provides details (e.g. time, price, contract size) about each one of my trades from entry to exit along with price action commentary as the trade traversed...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=100&t=1122.

To join our free chat room...registration instructions located at a different forum @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=630

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=148&t=1341

-----------------------------

Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/IMF actions or any important global economic events that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables (key market events) causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that results in swing points and strong continuation price actions. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for my technical analysis. Just as important, these summaries becomes my archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past...something I can not get from my broker statements alone.

Dow Average Rallies to Highest Level Since May on Fed

Jan. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Bloomberg's Deborah Kostroun reports on the performance of the U.S. equity market today. U.S. stocks rose, sending the Dow Jones Industrial Average to the highest level since May, as the Federal Reserve signaled low rates through at least late 2014 and didn't rule out bond purchases to bolster the economy.

Attachment:
012512-Key-Price-Action-Markets.png
012512-Key-Price-Action-Markets.png [ 512.63 KiB | Viewed 265 times ]


Image

Market Update

4:30 pm : The broad market was able to fight through moderate selling pressure this morning, but gains didn't come until after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) issued its latest Policy Statement. The afternoon advance eventually gained enough momentum to take the stock market to a new multi-month high.

A blowout quarterly report from Apple (AAPL 446.66, +26.25) helped prop up the Nasdaq and the rest of the tech sector (+1.0%) this morning, but most stocks started the session in the red. Of little inspiration were better-than-expected earnings from Boeing (BA 75.82, +0.46), United Technologies (UTX 77.65, -0.13), and ConocoPhillips (COP 69.98, -0.63) as Europe's bourses traded lower amid further frustration surrounding Greece's failure to compromise with its creditors.

Selling pressure slowly eased, but buyers didn't really step in until the FOMC announced that it will keep the federal funds rate at 0.00% to 0.25%. It also stated that economic conditions are likely to warrant such exceptionally low rates through at least late 2014.

The ensuing advance was temporarily interrupted when the Fed disclosed that it now expects GDP for 2012 to grow in a range of 2.2% to 2.7% this year, down from the range of 2.5% to 2.9% that it had stated previously. Fed Chairman Bernanke acknowledged, though, that if inflation remains below target and employment remains slow there is a case for further policy action.

Materials stocks scored some of the strongest gains overall; the sector settled 1.6% higher. Energy stocks were able to turn an early loss of about 1% into a 1.1% gain. Their effort was likely complemented by a climb in commodity prices.

General weakness among commodities this morning had the CRB Index in the red, but it was able to swing to a 0.5% gain. The dollar's downturn helped make its climb a little easier.

Treasuries also traded higher today, but they settled shy of their session highs. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Note saw its yield drop below 2.00% before it eventually worked its way back to that mark. Also in the mix was an auction of 5-year Notes that drew a bid-to-cover of 3.17, dollar demand of $111.0 billion, and an indirect bidder participation rate of 43.3%. For comparison, the prior auction attracted a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.86, dollar demand of $100.1 billion, and an indirect bidder rate of 50.6%, while an average of the past six auctions results in a bid-to-cover of 2.88, dollar demand of $100.8 billion, and an indirect bidder rate of 45.1%.

While stocks, commodities, and Treasuries responded positively to the Fed's commentary, the dollar took a dive. It had been up markedly in morning trade, but was down about 0.5% by session's end.

The first piece of actual domestic data in three days was the latest monthly pending home sales report. It showed that pending home sales for December fell 3.5%, which is slightly steeper than the 3.0% decline that had been generally expected.

Advancing Sectors: Materials +1.6%, Utilities +1.6%, Industrials +1.2%, Energy +1.1%, Tech +1.0%, Consumer Staples +1.0%, Consumer Discretionary +0.7%, Health Care +0.7%, Telecom +0.3%, Financials +0.2%
Declining Sectors: (None)DJ30 +83.10 NASDAQ +31.67 NQ100 +1.3% R2K +1.0% SP400 +1.0% SP500 +11.41 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1682/1.94 bln/851 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 287/830 mln/723

3:30 pm : Most commodities overcame a weak start to stage an impressive advance. That gave the CRB Index a 0.5% gain after it had been down modestly this morning.

Natural gas was a standout for the third straight session. The energy component extended its climb off of last week's multi-year low by advancing another 6.6% to $2.73 per MMBtu.

Oil prices rallied despite news that weekly crude oil inventories experienced a greater build than had been expected. Oil actually turned an early loss of more than 1% into a 1% gain before easing back to settle the session at $99.49 per barrel, about 0.5% higher for the day.

Precious metals were mired in negative territory this morning, but both silver and gold rallied to strong gains. Specifically, gold closed at $1700.60 per ounce for a 2.1% gain, while silver settled at $32.00 per ounce for a 3.5% gain. Silver prices were actually off by about 1% this morning. DJ30 +73.37 NASDAQ +27.67 SP500 +9.95 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1540/1.49 bln/965 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2165/545 mln/815

3:00 pm : Only an hour remains in today's trade, so many market participants are preparing for the next round of earnings results. Following the close, E*TRADE (ETFC 9.35, -0.19), Netflix (NFLX 94.47, +1.80), and SanDisk (SNDK 51.80, +0.61) are expected to report. Tomorrow morning brings 3M (MMM 86.31, +0.38), AT&T (T 30.15, +0.06), Bristol-Meyers Squibb (BMY 32.66, +0.41), Caterpillar (CAT 108.65, +2.56), and Colgate-Palmolive (CL 89.19, +0.94).DJ30 +55.17 NASDAQ +25.06 SP500 +7.85 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1500/1.38 bln/978 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2050/503 mln/905

2:30 pm : Stocks have drifted off of session highs. Gains remain solid, though.

Fed Chairman Bernanke is currently engaged in a question-and-answer session. He stated that although the economy has showed some positive signs, there have been mixed results in such areas as retail sales. He also added that if inflation remains below target and employment remains slow there is a case for further policy action.

Before Bernanke took the podium, the Fed released a downwardly revised economic outlook for 2012. The Fed now expects GDP to grow in a range of 2.2% to 2.7% this year, down from a range of 2.5% to 2.9%. DJ30 +30.76 NASDAQ +23.36 SP500 +4.93 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1605/1.28 bln/840 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2145/460 mln/820

2:00 pm : Stocks are starting to oscillate a bit, although they continue to trade with solid gains. The action comes as market participants prepare for a press conference from Fed Chairman Bernanke. Earlier today the Federal Open Market Committee kept announced that it has decided to keep the federal funds rate at 0.00% to 0.25%, and stated that it expects economic conditions to warrant exceptionally low rates through at least the end of 2014.DJ30 +42.91 NASDAQ +29.28 SP500 +7.27 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1615/1.15 bln/800 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2170/410 mln/780

1:30 pm : Stocks continue to climb, such that the three major equity averages are now at new session highs. At the same time, though, Treasuries are also climbing. The run up in Treasury prices has dropped yields to session lows, such that the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note is now down more than 10 basis pints so that it is back below 2.0%.DJ30 +54.11 NASDAQ +25.01 SP500 +7.11 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1410/1.03 bln/980 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1875/365 mln/105

1:00 pm : Stocks have pushed up to session highs following the latest FOMC Policy Statement, but the broad market continues to trail the tech-rich Nasdaq by a meaningful margin.

Although action was initially whippy in the wake of the FOMC's decision to keep the federal funds rate at 0.00% to 0.25% and its statement that economic conditions are likely to warrant such exceptionally low rates through at least late 2014, stocks have successfully worked their way higher. That's resulted in a modest gain for the S&P 500 and Dow, which spent the entire morning in negative territory.

In contrast, the Nasdaq has only added to its gain. Its strength has been underpinned by an exceptionally strong quarterly report from Apple (AAPL 445.75, +25.34). The stock's strength has inspired the rest of the tech sector, which is currently sporting a 0.7% gain.

Industrial stocks aren't far behind, however. The sector has run up to a 0.7% gain. Both Boeing (BA 76.13, +0.77) and United Technologies (UTX 78.47, +0.69) have rallied out of the red. Each posted an upside earnings surprise this morning.

Energy plays have made their way up to the neutral line after they had lagged in the early going. The sector's climb coincides with a jump in oil prices, which are up 1.0% at $99.90 per barrel after they had been down more than 1% this morning. ConocoPhillips (COP 70.00, -0.60) continues to trade with weakness, despite better-than-expected earnings for the latest quarter.

The dollar is down about 0.2% against a collection of competing currencies after it had been up firmly this morning. Its early gains came in connection with a weaker euro, which had been implicated by frustration and disappointment related to Greece's inability to reach a compromise with its creditors.

The first piece of actual domestic data in three days was the latest monthly pending home sales report, which showed that pending home sales for December fell 3.5%. A 3.0% decline had been generally expected. DJ30 +21.84 NASDAQ +18.70 SP500 +3.49 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1300/930 mln/1070 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1570/320 mln/1300

12:30 pm : The FOMC's latest policy statement was just issued. Among the key takeaways, the federal funds rate will remain at 0.00% to 0.25%. Such exceptionally low levels are expected to remain warranted through at least late 2014 due to low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run.

Stocks are seeing some choppy action in the wake of the announcement. Meanwhile, the dollar has dropped against a basket of major foreign currencies; it is now down 0.2% for the session. DJ30 -37.62 NASDAQ +13.51 SP500 -2.12 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1150/810 mln/1215 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1330/275 mln/1530

12:00 pm : Results from an auction of 5-year Notes were posted at 11:30 AM ET. The auction drew a bid-to-cover of 3.17, dollar demand of $111.0 billion, and an indirect bidder participation rate of 43.3%. Dollar demand was its greatest in more than a year. For comparison, the prior auction attracted a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.86, dollar demand of $100.1 billion, and an indirect bidder rate of 50.6%, while an average of the past six auctions results in a bid-to-cover of 2.88, dollar demand of $100.8 billion, and an indirect bidder rate of 45.1%.

The yield on the 5-year Note currently sits at 0.87%. Farther out on the yield curve, the benchmark 10-year Note is yielding 2.04%. On the shorter end, the 2-year Note remains little changed with its yield at 0.25%. DJ30 -43.67 NASDAQ +16.87 SP500 -1.24 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1215/700 mln/1115 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1455/240 mln/1380

11:30 am : Stocks are at session highs, but the S&P 500 has yet to turn positive. Instead, it remains in the red with a narrow loss.

The Dow, although off of its session low, still has a ways to go before it can challenge the line between positive and negative territory. It has been hampered by the likes of JPMorgan Chase (JPM 37.19, -0.47) and Boeing (BA 73.48, -1.88). Boeing actually posted an earnings report this morning that bested what Wall Street had expected.

Meanwhile, the Nasdaq has made its way up to a solid gain, thanks mostly to a rally by Apple (AAPL 448.79, +28.38) following the company's earnings, which surpassed the consensus estimate with ease. DJ30 -50.48 NASDAQ +15.42 SP500 -1.90 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1090/612 mln/1215 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1350/210 mln/1470

11:00 am : Stocks have been working their way higher in recent trade, although the path has been somewhat choppy.

Energy-related plays have been slow to follow, though. The sector isn't quite at its session low, but it is still down 0.9% for the session. That makes it the poorest performing group of the day. Strikingly, though, the energy sector's weakness comes as natural gas prices climb to a gain greater than 3% and oil prices bounce off of session lows to trade with only a loss of only 0.3% at $98.60 per barrel. DJ30 -59.79 NASDAQ +9.44 SP500 -2.99 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 890/465 mln/1360 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1055/165 mln/1720

10:30 am : Oil prices have moved up to $97.95 per barrel, which makes for a 1.0% loss, following news that the weekly crude oil inventory report showed a build of 3.6 million barrels when a build of 1.5 million barrels had been widely expected. In the minutes that immediately preceded the inventory report oil prices had traded with a loss of about 1.3%.

Natural gas prices continue to outperform. The energy component fell to a multi-year low late last week, but has been climbing this week. As such, natural gas prices were last quoted at $2.69 per MMBtu for a 3.3% gain.

As for gold prices, the yellow metal is currently down 0.6% to $1655 per ounce. Meanwhile, silver has managed to pare its early morning loss, but the precious metal remains in the red with a 0.3% loss at $31.85 per ounce. DJ30 -80.91 NASDAQ +6.08 SP500 -4.23 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 865/325 mln/1305 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1015/122 mln/1700

10:00 am : The broad market remains in negative territory, unfased by the latest monthly pending home sales numbers. Pending home sales for December fell 3.5%, which is worse than the 3.0% decline that had been expected, on average, among economists polled by Briefing.com.

The pending home sales report is the first piece of concrete economic data released this week, but the highlighting event of today's calendar is the FOMC Policy Statement at 12:30 PM ET. DJ30 -93.85 NASDAQ +2.85 SP500 -6.88 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 640/140 mln/1370 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 760/68 mln/1830

09:45 am : The broad market is in the red with a modest loss as every sector except tech trades lower. Tech, up 0.5%, is being helped higher by Apple (AAPL 449.33, +28.92), which posted blowout earnings for its latest quarter. What's more, Apple's weight in the Nasdaq has actually helped the tech-rich Index put together a modest gain in the early going.DJ30 -71.79 NASDAQ +6.57 SP500 -5.32 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -4.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +24.80. Stock futures point to a mixed open for the major equity averages. The divide between broad market futures and futures for the Nasdaq 100 is primarily owed to an earnings blowout by Apple (AAPL 457.65, +37.24) -- ticker quote here reflects premarket price. Traders have been less enthused about earnings results from the rest of the lot. Broad market sentiment has also been dampened by Europe's renewed weakness, which has come amid continued frustration and disappointment regarding Greece's willingness to compromise with its creditors. That has also weighed on the euro, such that the currency was recently quoted with a 0.6% loss against the greenback. Following two straight days without any domestic economic releases, the only piece of concrete data due today is a pending home sales report at 10:00 AM ET. That said, market participants are hoping for additional insight into economic trends with the latest FOMC Policy Statement at 12:30 PM ET.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -4.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +24.50. Oil prices are down 0.9% to $98.09 per barrel in the opening minutes of pit trade. Weekly oil inventory numbers will be released at 10:30 AM ET. Meanwhile, natural gas prices continue to climb off of the multi-year lows that they set last week. The energy component is currently up 2.3% to $2.66 per MMBtu. Precious metals are under pressure, such that gold is trading with a 0.7% loss at $1653 per ounce, while silver prices were last quoted with a 0.9% loss at $31.70 per ounce. General weakness in the commodity complex has the CRB Index down 0.3%. In the backdrop, the dollar has advanced about 0.5% against a collection of competing currencies.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -3.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +26.30. Europe's bourses are in the red again. Disappointment and frustration related to Greece's ongoing struggle to revise debt terms with creditors continues to perpetuate a degree of pessimism in the region. The EuroStoxx 50 is down 1.0% today. Meanwhile, Germany's DAX is down 0.4%. Siemens and Deutsche Post are in the weakest shape, but Infineon Tech is providing some support. Germany reported that its IFO Business Climate reading improved to 108.3 in January from 107.2 in the prior month. Britain's FTSE is presently off by 0.5% amid renewed weakness in banking issues Lloyds Group (LYG 1.88, -0.07), Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS 8.22, -0.21), Standard Chartered, and Barclays (BCS 13.51, -0.13). Fourth quarter GDP for the United Kingdom fell by 0.2% after economic activity had expanded by 0.6% during the third quarter. France's CAC has fallen to a 0.6% loss amid widespread weakness. Alcatel-Lucent (ALU 1.77, -0.17) is in particularly poor shape. Shares of Societe Generale have also come under renewed selling pressure.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng and China's Shanghai Composite both remained closed for holiday observance, but Japan's Nikkei was open for trade. The Nikkei scored a 1.1% gain with help from Mitsui OSK and Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha, which were the two strongest performers by percent gained. The pair also boasted robust share volume. Automakers Toyota (TM 72.33, +0.00) and Honda (HMC 34.62, +0.00) also displayed strength. Japan reported a trade deficit of 2.49 trillion yen for 2011. It was the country's first trade deficit since 1980.

Note: all ticker quotes reflect premarket prices.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -2.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +24.80. Stock futures are mixed this morning as market participants respond to strong earnings from Apple (AAPL 451.90, +31.49) last evening. Yahoo! (YHOO 15.60, -0.09) was also out last evening with its earnings, which matched what had been expected by Wall Street. Widely held Boeing (BA 74.42, -0.94), United Technologies (UTX 77.70, -0.08), and ConocoPhillips (COP 71.62, +1.01) all posted upside earnings surprises this morning. Note: all ticker quotes reflect premarket prices.

Still in the backdrop are concerns about Greece's ability to establish revised terms with the country's creditors.

Also in the mix are comments made last evening during President Obama's State of the Union address. To little surprise, the speech has stirred strong partisan responses that reflect the chasm currently existing in politics.

Always a highly anticipated event, the Fed will make its latest monetary policy announcement at 12:30 PM ET. Before that, though, pending home sales numbers will be posted at 10:00 AM ET. Also on today's docket are weekly oil inventory numbers, which are due at 10:30 AM ET.

06:26 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -4.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +18.00.

06:26 am : Nikkei...8883.69...+98.40...+1.10%. Hang Seng...Holiday.........

06:26 am : FTSE...5707.75...-44.20...-0.80%. DAX...6378.95...-40.30...-0.60%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

Phone: +1.708.572.4885
Business Hours: 8am - 5pm est (Mon - Fri)
Skype Messenger: kebec2002
intradaystrategies@yahoo.com
questions@thestrategylab.com
Go Back To TheStrategyLab.com Homepage


Top
 Profile  
 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 1 post ] 

All times are UTC - 5 hours [ DST ]


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot post attachments in this forum

Search for:
Jump to:  
cron
Powered by phpBB © 2000, 2002, 2005, 2007 phpBB Group
Translated by Xaphos © 2007, 2008, 2009 phpBB.fr