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 Post subject: January 24th Tuesday 2012 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +12.60
PostPosted: Wed Jan 25, 2012 12:59 am 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)

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click on the above image to view today's performance verification

Trade Performance for Today: +12.60 points or $1260 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, all trades were posted real-time in the free #FuturesTrades chat room. Today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs provides details (e.g. time, price, contract size) about each one of my trades from entry to exit along with price action commentary as the trade traversed...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=100&t=1121.

To join our free chat room...registration instructions located at a different forum @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=630

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=148&t=1341

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Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/IMF actions or any important global economic events that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables (key market events) causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that results in swing points and strong continuation price actions. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for my technical analysis. Just as important, these summaries becomes my archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past...something I can not get from my broker statements alone.

S&P 500 Ends Five-Day Rally Amid Greek Debt Stalemate

Jan. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Bloomberg's Deborah Kostroun reports on the performance of the U.S. equity market today. U.S. stocks retreated, ending a five-day advance in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, amid a stalemate between European finance ministers and Greek bondholders over how to resolve the nation's debt crisis.

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Market Update

4:30 pm : The broad market was sold in the early going, but it managed to pare its loss by session's end. The effort was sluggish and generally without leadership.

Disappointment and frustration related to ongoing wrangling between Greece and its creditors sent stocks lower immediately after the open, but the major averages were able to find support before losses became too great. Stocks spent the next couple of hours working their way up from those early lows, but momentum eventually slowed so that stocks were left to drift sideways into the close.

The action was similar to that of the euro, which was able to fully recover from an early loss, but failed to generate enough momentum to move into positive territory.

Tech had appeared to be a source of leadership as it fought its way up to a modest gain, but its efforts were checked. The largest sector by market weight spent the rest of the day dancing along the neutral line before it eked out a narrow gain. Texas Instruments (TXN 32.54, -0.65) was a heavy drag, despite a better-than-expected earnings report. Western Digital (WDC 36.88, +2.17) was among the session's best performers overall following an upside earnings surprise of its own.

Market participants also had varied responses to better-than-expected results from blue chips Johnson & Johnson (JNJ 65.00, +0.00), DuPont (DD 49.41, +0.06), and McDonald's (MCD 98.75, -2.20). Fellow Dow components Travelers (TRV 58.00, -2.29) and Verizon (VZ 37.79, -0.61) both traded lower after they posted earnings that came short of what had been widely expected.

Coach (COH 67.97, +3.73) shares climbed aggressively to an all-time high after it announced earnings that exceeded what Wall Street had estimated. The stock helped give the consumer discretionary sector a 0.4% gain, which is better than what any other sector accomplished.

Although the Fed began its two-day meeting today, there weren't any economic releases. That may have weighed on participation, which was especially poor today -- less than 750 million shares were traded on the NYSE.

An auction of 2-year Notes drew a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.75, dollar demand of $131.3 billion, and an indirect bidder participation rate of 32.9%. For comparison, an average of the past six auctions results in a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.58, dollar demand of $125.4 billion, and an indirect bidder rate of 33.1%.

Advancing Sectors: Consumer Discretionary +0.4%, Health Care +0.1%, Tech +0.1%, Industrials +0.1%
Unchanged: Materials
Declining Sectors: Financial -0.2%, Energy -0.3%, Consumer Staples -0.4%, Utilities -0.8%, Telecom -1.3%DJ30 -33.07 NASDAQ +2.47 NQ100 -0.1% R2K +0.7% SP400 +0.4% SP500 -1.37 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1491/1.65 bln/1000 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1619/742 mln/1376

3:30 pm : The CRB Commodity Index worked its way up from an early loss to settle the session with a 0.4% gain. Among its more closely watched components, natural gas was a top performer; it climbed 1.2% to close pit trade at $2.56 per MMBtu. In contrast, oil traded with weakness and closed at $99.03 per barrel to suffer a 0.7% loss.

Among precious metals, gold prices managed to muster an incremental gain to settle just shy of $1665 per ounce. Meanwhile, silver settled at $32 per ounce, which makes for a 1.1% loss. DJ30 -32.73 NASDAQ +3.10 SP500 -1.29 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1415/1.27 bln/1050 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1570/460 mln/1395

3:00 pm : With the close drawing near and stocks still stuck in lackluster action many participants are preparing for the next round of earnings results. After the close, Apple (AAPL 422.13, -5.28) and Yahoo! (YHOO 15.67, -0.01) will make their latest quarterly announcements. Boeing (BA 75.37, -0.14), ConocoPhillips (COP 70.74, +0.18), and United Technologies (UTX 77.49, +0.63) are scheduled for tomorrow morning.DJ30 -48.06 NASDAQ -0.62 SP500 -2.96 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1330/1.14 bln/1115 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1475/415 mln/1475

2:30 pm : Although the path has been slow and drawn out, the financial sector has worked its way to a session high. That said, it is still down about 0.3% on the session.

Financials have been partly hampered by Travelers (TRV 58.37, -1.92). The Dow component has been in weak shape all session due to disappointment surrounding the outfit's earnings miss. In contrast, KeyCorp (KEY 8.14, +0.03) has mustered a modest gain following in-line earnings results. DJ30 -41.78 NASDAQ +0.17 SP500 -2.58 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1300/1.07 bln/1125 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1425/385 mln/1515

2:00 pm : Listless and lackluster action has left stocks to continue their sideways slog. The drift reflects that of the euro, which has spent the past couple of hours near the neutral line, unable to make a meaningful push into positive territory.DJ30 -51.92 NASDAQ -1.68 SP500 -3.74 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1250/966 mln/1180 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1350/350 mln/1590

1:30 pm : Results from an auction of 2-year Notes were released at 1:00 PM ET. They featured a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.75, dollar demand of $131.3 billion, and an indirect bidder participation rate of 32.9%. For comparison, the prior auction produced a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.45, dollar demand of $120.8 billion, and an indirect bidder rate of 21.6%, while an average of the past six auctions results in a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.58, dollar demand of $125.4 billion, and an indirect bidder rate of 33.1%.

The yield on the 2-year Note remains at 0.25% in the wake of the auction. At the longer end of the yield curve the benchmark 10-year Note is yielding 2.07%. DJ30 -56.57 NASDAQ -3.36 SP500 -4.41 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1250/900 mln/1170 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1400/325 mln/1530

1:00 pm : Stocks slumped at the open, but a slow and steady climb has helped the broad market cut its loss while the Nasdaq has made its way up to the neutral line.

Early pressure was widely attributed to disappointment over Greece's continued grappling with creditors over the country's debt terms. The struggle to make progress initially weighed heavily on trade in Europe, but the region's bourses eventually pared their losses. The euro was also dragged down, but it too has fought back so that it is now flat against the greenback.

Responses to the latest round of earnings reports have varied. Among blue chips, Johnson & Johnson (JNJ 65.00, +0.00), DuPont (DD 49.39, +0.04), and McDonald's (MCD 98.69, -2.26) all exceeded earnings expectations, but both Travelers (TRV 58.47, -1.82) and Verizon (VZ 37.75, -0.65) came short. Texas Instruments (TXN 32.69, -0.50), Western Digital (WDC 36.96, +2.25), and Coach (COH 68.63, +4.39) also beat the Street's bottom line estimates, but only shares of the latter two names have benefited from a concerted buying effort.

Although overall action remains relatively lackluster, tech stocks have done well in their efforts to limit losses. The sector suffered only a slight setback in the early going, but has spent the past couple of hours dancing along narrowly above the neutral line. The sector's relative strength has helped support the Nasdaq at the flat line while the other major averages remain mired in negative territory with modest losses amid weakness in energy (-0.4%) and financials (-0.5%). DJ30 -42.34 NASDAQ +0.05 SP500 -2.84 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1180/820 mln/1210 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1325/295 mln/1575

12:30 pm : Stocks have entered into a sideways drift, leaving the broad market to muddle along with a modest loss and the tech-rich Nasdaq to dance along the neutral line.

However, there have been a few high flyers today. Coach (COH 68.73, +4.49) has spiked to a 7% gain following news of its upside earnings surprise, while Western Digital (WDC 36.83, +2.12) is up 6% with help from better-than-expected earnings of its own.

As an aside, results from an auction of 2-year Notes are due at the top of the hour. The Note is currently unchanged, keeping its yield at about 0.251%. DJ30 -49.61 NASDAQ -1.77 SP500 -3.95 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1220/750 mln/1155 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1330/275 mln/1550

12:00 pm : The stock market has run into renewed selling pressure, cutting its climb short of positive territory. There isn't any direct headline to account for the interruption.

However, the euro, which has shared a positive correlation with the stock market for several months, has paused just below the flat line after it, too, had spent most of the morning working its way up from a marked loss. The euro now trails the dollar by only 0.1%. DJ30 -44.58 NASDAQ -1.07 SP500 -3.80 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1180/660 mln/1180 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1290/245 mln/1555

11:30 am : Neither the S&P 500 nor the Dow has poked into positive territory yet. Instead, the pair remain mired in negative territory with narrow losses.

Although both averages have been trending upward from morning lows, the effort by the S&P 500 has been undermined by the energy sector (-0.7%) and the financial sector (-0.5%). Meanwhile, the Dow has been hampered by the likes of integrated telecom giant Verizon (VZ 37.58, -0.82) and insurance giant Travelers (TRV 58.41, -1.87), both of which came short of what Wall Street had expected of their earnings. DJ30 -29.29 NASDAQ +3.81 SP500 -2.34 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1160/565 mln/1160 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1300/210 mln/1540

11:00 am : Stocks continue to stage a slow and steady recovery off of their morning lows. The effort has already taken the Nasdaq into positive territory, although the tech-rich Index is only up fractionally.

Tech stocks make up today's top performers. The sector has pushed up to a 0.3% gain with help from computer storage and peripheral plays. Application software issues are also chipping in to the effort. DJ30 -32.54 NASDAQ +1.23 SP500 -3.83 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 900/410 mln/1355 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 985/165 mln/1805

10:30 am : The dollar index is modestly higher this morning, which is creating selling pressure on the commodities space.

In the energy space, Feb natural gas is extending yesterday's gains, which were originally driven by Chesapeake Energy's announcement of a production cut. Feb natural gas futures just hit a new session high of $2.65/MMBtu after selling off from its morning high of $2.64 and are now up 3.4% at $2.61/MMBtu. Feb crude oil has been trending lower this morning, basically up until an hour ago. The energy component hit a new session low of $98.21 around that time and is now back near the $99 mark; currently down 0.7% at $98.86/barrel.

In metals, Feb gold and March silver are in the red this morning with gold underperforming the precious metals. Gold has been in a rather steady decline this morning and just hit a new session low of $1661.60. Silver recovered some of its losses, but is now pulling back again. In current trade, gold is down 0.8% at $1664.90/oz and silver is 0.6% lower at $32.08/oz.DJ30 -58.28 NASDAQ -6.56 SP500 -6.09 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 820/356 mln/1430 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 893/150 mln/1887

10:00 am : Stocks are getting some relief, but the major equity averages remain in the red with varied losses.

Despite the stock market's early weakness, Treasuries are trading lower. A modest loss for the benchmark 10-year Note has its yield back near its prior session high and only a few basis points below 2.10%, which hasn't been touched in nearly three months. DJ30 -64.52 NASDAQ -6.90 SP500 -6.08 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 490/150 mln/1625 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 480/80 mln/2225

09:45 am : Stocks are down with maked losses in the opening minutes of trade. Financials and energy, down 1.2% and 1.0%, respectively, are among the heaviest drags. However, the tech sector has limited its slide to a loss of just 0.3%.

Tech stocks are being helped by Western Digital (WDC 37.69, +2.98), which posted a bottom-line beat for its latest quarter. Texas Instruments (TXN 32.77, -0.42) also posted an upside earnings surprise, but its shares are under pressure. DJ30 -82.49 NASDAQ -15.00 SP500 -8.48 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -7.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -8.00. Participants are putting pressure on stocks ahead of the open. Selling interest follows the prior session's lackluster finish, the failure of Greece and its creditors to strike an agreement on the terms of the country's debt, and losses among Europe's bourses. The euro has also come under increased pressure, such that it now trails the greenback by about 0.5%. Earnings haven't exactly excited morning traders; several blue chips bested consensus earnings estimates, but there were a few misses in the bunch. Premarket participants are also without economic data for the second straight day.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -9.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -9.80. Most commodities have moved lower, leaving the CRB Index to slide to a 0.2% loss, but natural gas prices have managed to extend their prior session rally. Natural gas prices are currently up 1.6% to $2.62 per MMBtu after they rallied almost 8% on Monday. However, oil prices are presently down 1.1% to $98.45 per barrel. Precious metals are also under pressure. Specifically, gold prices are down 1.0% to $1662 per ounce, while silver sits at $32.02 per ounce with a 0.8% loss.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -8.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -9.50. Many of Europe's major bourses have retreated into the red amid disappointment and frustration related to ongoing wrangling over Greece's debt terms; many had come to expect some sort of solution yesterday. Greece's Athex 20 is currently down 4.0%. Meanwhile, Germany's DAX is down 0.9%. Commerzbank, which rallied hard in each of its last two outings, is under heavy selling pressure. Deutsche Bank (DB 41.89, -1.56) is down in sympathy. Germany reported that its Manufacturing PMI for January hit 50.9, which is up from the 48.4 that was posted in the prior month. The country's Services PMI improved to 54.5 in January from 52.4 in the prior month. Banking outfits are also dragging on Britain's FTSE, which is currently off by 0.8%. Lloyds Group (LYG 1.91, -0.11) and Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS 8.38, -0.29) are currently the two poorest performers in the FTSE. Barclays (BCS 13.48, -0.44) is also in rough shape this session. France's CAC has fallen to a 0.9% loss. Societe Generale and Credit Agricole are hurting action there after the pair had provided upside leadership in the prior session. France reported that its preliminary reading on Manufacturing PMI eased down to 48.5 in January from 48.9 in December. The Manufacturing PMI for the overall eurozone improved to 48.7 in January from 46.9 in the prior month. The Services PMI reading for the eurozone inched up to 50.5 in January from 50.3 in the prior month.

Action in Asia was limited due to holiday observations in China and Hong Kong. However, Japan's Nikkei was open. It inched up to a 0.2% gain. Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha and Nippon Yusen were primary leaders. Toyota Motor (TM 72.18, +1.03), Mitsubishi Motor, and Mazda Motor also staged strong gains, but their strength was offset by weakness in Nippon Steel, Tokyo Electric Power, and Nomura Holdings (NMR 3.71, +0.00). The country's central bank trimmed its 2012 outlook to reflect growth of 2.0% after it had forecasted 2.2% growth this past fall. Weakness in Europe and a stronger yen were cited as underpinnings of the downward revision.

Note: all ticker quotes reflect premarket prices.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -7.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -6.50. Failure to find solutions for Greece's debt dilemma has put pressure on Europe's major bourses, most of which are down markedly this morning. The euro has also been implicated by the news, although its loss against the greenback is only narrow. Such negativity has caused domestic stocks to trade lower in sympathy ahead of their open. That said, tech plays Texas Instruments (TXN 33.60, +0.41) and Western Digital (WDC 36.51, +1.80) are sporting strong gans in futures trade, thanks to their better-than-expected earnings results. Blue chips Johnson & Johnson (JNJ 65.00, +0.00), DuPont (DD 49.33, -0.02), and McDonald's (MCD 101.50, +0.55) also bested expectations for their bottom lines, but neither Travelers (TRV 59.50, -0.79) nor Verizon (VZ 37.65, -0.75) could meet what Wall Street had expected of their earnings. Note: ticker quotes reflect premarket prices.

The economic calendar is empty for the second straight day, but the Fed is set to begin a two-day meeting and results from an auction of 2-year Notes will be released at 1:00 PM ET.

06:25 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -9.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -9.00.

06:25 am : Nikkei...8785.33...+19.40...+0.20%. Hang Seng...Holiday.........

06:25 am : FTSE...5736.05...-46.50...-0.80%. DAX...6364.48...-72.10...-1.10%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

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