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 Post subject: January 10th Tuesday 2012 Emini TF ($TF_F) points -18.40
PostPosted: Wed Jan 11, 2012 12:12 am 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)

Attachment:
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click on the above image to view today's performance verification

Trade Performance for Today: -18.40 points or ($1840) dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, all trades were posted real-time in the free #FuturesTrades chat room. Today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs provides details (e.g. time, price, contract size) about each one of my trades from entry to exit along with price action commentary as the trade traversed...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=100&t=1111.

To join our free chat room...registration instructions located at a different forum @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=630

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=148&t=1341

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Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/IMF actions or any important global economic events that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables (key market events) causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that results in swing points and strong continuation price actions. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for my technical analysis. Just as important, these summaries becomes my archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past...something I can not get from my broker statements alone.

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Market Update

4:30 pm : The broad market ran up to a multi-month high in the early going, but spent the rest of the session drifting along. Although the stock market settled shy of its session high, it still booked its best gain in a week.

Buying interest was largely based on the robust gains staged by many of the major averages abroad, including those in both Europe and Asia. Overseas gains came amid word that analysts at Fitch believe France and Germany will maintain their top-notch credit ratings in 2012, while many in Asia are hoping that China will ease monetary policy after leaders commented last week about the difficulty facing the country's economy.

Banks were among the best performers abroad. That helped fire up shares of domestic financial issues, resulting in a 2.0% gain for the sector. With a 1.8% gain, materials stocks were close behind, but nearly every other sector settled with a gain of less than 1%. Defensive-oriented issues gained the least.

Market participants were treated to the unofficial start of earnings season, which got going when Alcoa (AA 9.44, +0.01) announced quarterly results after the prior session's close. The company's strong top line results initially overshadowed its earnings miss, but enthusiasm eventually subsided so that the stock surrendered all but a penny of its gain. Only a handful of other earnings reports were released; none of them was of any real interest to the broad market.

Data was limited to an inconsequential wholesale inventory report for November. It showed a 0.1% increase when an increase of 0.5% had been generally expected.

Unfortunately for participants reliant upon trading catalysts, the flow of data doesn't pick up until later in the week and earnings season really doesn't get going in earnest until next week. Participation, or share volume, presumably won't pick up until then; as a consequence of the absence of catalysts far less than 1 billion shares traded hands on the NYSE today.

Advancing Sectors: Financial +2.0%, Materials +1.8%, Industrials +1.4%, Health Care +0.9%, Energy +0.7%, Consumer Discretionary +0.6%, Tech +0.5%, Telecom +0.4%, Consumer Staples +0.4%, Utilities +0.1%
Declining Sectors: (None)DJ30 +69.78 NASDAQ +25.94 NQ100 +0.7% R2K +1.4% SP400 +1.3% SP500 +11.38 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1847/1.84 bln/707 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2323/841 mln/690

3:30 pm : Silver scored one of the session's best gains by climbing 3.9% to $29.84 per ounce. Gold gained 1.0% to settle pit trade at $1633 per ounce.

Energy prices pushed past $103 per barrel in the early going, but settled at $102.20 per barrel for a 1.0% gain.

Unable to follow the trend, natural gas gave up an early gain to settle pit trade with a 2.3% loss at $2.94 per MMBtu. The energy component actually traded as low as $2.90 MMBtu. DJ30 +66.79 NASDAQ +24.60 SP500 +10.61 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1875/1.43 bln/680 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2320/550 mln/700

3:00 pm : Stocks have managed to elevate their afternoon crawl so that they're now trending higher, albeit at a very gradual pace.

Financials continue to offer leadership. The sector is now back at its best level of the day, sporting a 2% gain. Banks remain among those in most favor. DJ30 +76.71 NASDAQ +28.76 SP500 +12.33 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1855/1.31 bln/690 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2340/505 mln/670

2:30 pm : Stocks continue to trade sideways, riding their gains. As things currently stand, stock are on pace for their best single-session percentage performance in one week.

However, share volume doesn't suggest that there's been a great deal of conviction behind today's volume. The lack of participation remains a consequence of the lack of corporate news flow, data, or other trading catalysts. DJ30 +70.16 NASDAQ +26.12 SP500 +11.68 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1830/1.24 bln/705 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2305/475 mln/695

2:00 pm : Stocks are drifting sideways, much as they did during the couple of hours that preceded their mid-session slip. The lack of movement has made for some rather unexciting trade today. Of course, there haven't been that many catalysts for trade -- economic data and corporate news both remains sparse and the dollar has spent the session stuck narrowly below the neutral line.DJ30 +64.33 NASDAQ +24.32 SP500 +10.60 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1840/1.13 bln/375 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2310/435 mln/675

1:30 pm : Results from an auction of 3-year Notes were just released about 30 minutes ago. The strong auction results, which featured the greatest dolllar demand since May 2010, come shortly after stocks traded down to session lows, helping Treasuries tick higher.

As for auction specifics, the bid-to-cover totaled 3.73, dollar demand totaled $119.4 billion, and the indirect bidder rate came in at 38.5%. For comparison, the prior auction featured a bid-to-cover of 3.62, dollar demand of $115.8 billion, and an indirect bidder rate of 39.1%. An average of the past six auctions results in a bid-to-cover of 3.33, dollar demand of $106.6 billion, and an indirect bidder rate of 38.9%. DJ30 +61.99 NASDAQ +20.52 SP500 +10.12 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1795/1.03 bln/695 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2295/400 mln/680

1:00 pm : Stocks are off of session highs, but still sporting solid gains on the day. Support remains broad.

A strong showing by the major averages of both Asia and Europe aroused early buying interest, such that the stock market opened at a multi-month high. Rather than build on the opening gains, stocks drifted sideways in a relatively tight range narrowly beneath their early levels. A recent fit of selling has checked some of those gains, though.

Even though all 10 major sectors remain in positive tone, cyclical plays continue to provide the most support. As such, financials and materials plays are out in front with gains of almost 2%. Although Alcoa (AA 9.44, +0.02) reported an earnings miss for the latest quarter, participants initially applauded the strength of the company's top line results. However, gains by shares of the Dow component proved unsustainable.

The dollar has spent the session trading narrowly below the neutral line. A recent attempt to test the flat line coincided with the stock market's recent slip. DJ30 +66.19 NASDAQ +23.34 SP500 +10.60 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1780/965 mln/690 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2290/375 mln/675

12:30 pm : A sudden flurry of selling pressure has sent stocks down from their recent perch, but overall gains remain sizable.

Financials continue to provide a key source of support. The sector is still up 1.7% on the session. That's essentially double what the broad market is now sporting. Financials were also among the better performers of the prior session, booking a gain of about 0.5%. DJ30 +62.44 NASDAQ +19.01 SP500 +9.56 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1840/860 mln/610 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2380/335 mln/580

12:00 pm : The stock market continues to drift along near session highs. The range bound action has kept the S&P 500 trading within a span of about three points for the past couple of hours. Although the drift may not make for great theater, many bullish participants have been content to sit on the gains since the advance today has put the stock market at its best level in nearly six months.DJ30 +89.57 NASDAQ +26.76 SP500 +12.37 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1865/770 mln/560 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2385/305 mln/555

11:30 am : Financials have pushed back toward their session highs, giving the group a collective gain of almost 2%. Bank stocks have been primary drivers of the sector's move. At the end of the week the bar for fourth quarter results for banking issues will be set by JPMorgan Chase (JPM 35.98, +0.68), which is scheduled to post its quarterly report ahead of the open of trade on Friday.DJ30 +98.84 NASDAQ +30.81 SP500 +13.81 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1855/660 mln/545 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2400/265 mln/515

11:00 am : Stocks are shy of session highs, but they have managed to maintain solid gains while chopping along sideways for the past hour.

Meanwhile, the dollar remains in the red with a narrow loss against a basket of major foreign currencies. However, in contrast to the prior session, the dollar is holding up against the euro, which was last quoted with a fractional loss at $1.278. DJ30 +98.58 NASDAQ +28.78 SP500 +13.61 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1855/520 mln/500 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2390/215 mln/490

10:35 am : The dollar index remains in negative territory this morning, which has given a boost to the commodity complex.

In the energy space, Feb crude oil has been in positive territory all session, driven by broad market strength and ongoing concerns with Iran. The energy component has shown a rather steady uptrend during the session and ran as high as $103.41 in earlier this morning. In recent trade, crude just pulled back below the $103 mark and is now up 1.2% at $102.52/barrel.

Feb natural gas began to climb higher late in the overnight session and hit a session high of $3.05. Natural gas has since pulled back and is now 1.3% lower at $3.01/MMBtu.

In the metals space, Feb gold and March silver have followed the same pattern as crude this morning, showing steady strength. Silver cracked the $30 area earlier this morning and ran as higher as $30.31. Currently, silver is at $29.90 , up 3.9%. Gold is also trading near its session high and is now up 1.7% at $1634.60/oz. Mar copper is up 2.4% at $3.50/lb.DJ30 +91.84 NASDAQ +29.34 SP500 +12.96 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1843/418 mln/474 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2366/184 mln/472

10:00 am : Stocks recently eased off of their opening highs, but they have begun to reclaim their gains. The broad market isn't quite back to its morning high, however.

Materials stocks continue to run ahead of the rest of the market; the sector is now up 2.2%. However, Alcoa (AA 9.56, +0.14) shares have seen their early gains slashed so that the stock now trades with a gain that is more closely aligned with that of the broad market. DJ30 +107.85 NASDAQ +31.75 SP500 +13.81 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1830/118 mln/330 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2410/80 mln/300

09:45 am : Thanks to a concerted, broad-based buying effort, the major equity averages all got a strong start to today's trade. In fact, the move put both the Dow and S&P 500 at new multi-month highs and the Nasdaq at its best level in about two months. However, the major averages are now easing off of their opening highs.

Although stocks are off of their opening highs, cyclical plays continue to sport strong gains ranging from more than 1% to almost 2%. Materials issues are out in front with a 1.7% gain. In contrast, defensive-oriented stocks are lagging in the early going. More specifically, utilities and consumer staples stocks are up only 0.4%, while health care and telecom are up just 0.7%. DJ30 +90.25 NASDAQ +29.25 SP500 +11.85 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +13.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +23.20. Strong buying interest ahead of the open has stock futures suggesting that the broad market will open above the multi-month closing high of about 1285 that has been a point of resistance since the start of the new year. The mood among premarket participants reflects the strengthened sentiment abroad, where the major averages of both Europe and Asia have staged strong gains. In Europe, confidence has been partly helped by assurance from analysts at Fitch that Germany and France are likely to keep their top-notch credit ratings in 2012. The belief that monetary policy may be made more lax in China has helped bolster buying interest in Asia. Data and news flow remain limited in that Dow component Alcoa (AA 9.75, +0.32) has been the only notable name to report earnings since the prior session and wholesale trade numbers (10:00 AM ET) make up the only item on the economic calendar. Note: ticker quotes reflect premarket prices.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +13.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +23.20. The positive tone to premarket trade has spread into the commodities complex, resulting in a 1.3% gain for the CRB Index. Oil is a primary driver of that move; the energy component was last quoted at $103.15 per barrel for a 1.8% gain. Natural gas prices are up a more modest 0.6% to $3.07 per MMBtu. Precious metals are performing exceptionally well. Specifically, gold prices have gained 1.9% to trade at $1639 per ounce, while silver has ascended 4.8% to $30.17 per ounce.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +12.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +22.00. Improved sentiment in Europe has lifted the EuroStoxx 50 to a 1.7% gain. Up in excess of 5%, Daimler is a leader there. Banco Santander (STD 7.25, +0.28) is also a source of strength. SAP AG and Philips Electronics NV have failed to join the advance, however. As for Germany's primary bourse, the DAX has advanced to a 2.8% gain. Deutsche Bank (DB 35.63, +1.99) and Commerzbank are the top performers by percent gained; they're up 7.2% and 6.8%, respectively. France's CAC has climbed to a 2.9% gain amid leadership from financial plays and materials plays like ArcelorMittal (MT 19.44, +0.72). In macro news, analysts at Fitch indicated that the top-notch credit ratings of both France and Germany are expected to be safe in 2012. As for data, France's latest industrial production reading showed an increase of 1.1%. Britain's FTSE has pushed ahead to a 1.5% gain with help from banking plays Barclays (BCS 11.70, +0.52), Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS 6.50, +0.25), and Lloyds Group (LYG 1.65, +0.07). Declining issues have been limited in number, but GlaxoSmithKline (GSK 44.02, -0.34) has been a notable laggard.

Action in Asia remained positive, building on the gains that many of the averages there achieved in the prior session. Mainland China's Shanghai Composite outperformed again by climbing close to 3% for the second straight session. Hopes of easier monetary policy continue to be cited as a primary catalyst. However, metal plays like Aluminum Corp of China were especially strong in the wake of the latest report from Alcoa (AA 9.69, +0.26). Hong Kong's Hang Seng scored a 0.7% gain to settle at a one-month closing high. Japan's Nikkei re-opened after a long, holiday weekend to score a 0.4% gain. Tokyo Electric Power was a primary leader; the stock not only boasted the best percentage gain, but also booked the most share volume for a single stock.

Note: all ticker quotes reflect premarket prices.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +13.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +22.20. Stock futures are up solidly in conjunction with positive sentiment displayed both in Asia and Europe. The bid has futures pointing toward the broad market's best open in months.

Buying interest has spread to the commodities complex, resulting in markedly higher futures prices for oil and precious metals. The climb by commodities has likely been made easier by weakness in the dollar, which is down against a collection of competing currencies for the second straight session.

Earnings season got its unofficial start last evening with the latest quarterly report from Dow component Alcoa (AA 9.64, +0.21), which bested expectations for its top line, but came short of the bottom-line consensus. Only a few other reports have been made since the prior session's close, but none has been of much broad market interest. Note: all ticker quotes reflect premarket prices.

The economic calendar is also sparse in that it is occupied only by the latest monthly wholesale trade numbers, which will be posted at 10:00 AM ET. Results from an auction of 3-year Notes are scheduled for release at 1:00 PM ET.

06:23 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +12.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +23.00.

06:23 am : Nikkei...8422.26...+31.90...+0.40%. Hang Seng...19004.28...+138.60...+0.70%.

06:23 am : FTSE...5672.69...+60.40...+1.10%. DAX...6157.99...+140.80...+2.50%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

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