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 Post subject: January 6th Friday 2012 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +16.10
PostPosted: Fri Jan 06, 2012 9:04 pm 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)

Attachment:
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click on the above image to view today's performance verification

Trade Performance for Today: +16.10 points or $1610 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, all trades were posted real-time in the free #FuturesTrades chat room. Today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs provides details (e.g. time, price, contract size) about each one of my trades from entry to exit along with price action commentary as the trade traversed...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=100&t=1108.

To join our free chat room...registration instructions located at a different forum @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=630

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=148&t=1341

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Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/IMF actions or any important global economic events that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables (key market events) causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that results in swing points and strong continuation price actions. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for my technical analysis. Just as important, these summaries becomes my archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past...something I can not get from my broker statements alone.

U.S. Stock Market Wrap

Jan. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Bloomberg's Deborah Kostroun reports on the performance of the U.S. equity market today. U.S. stocks fell as better-than-forecast jobs growth and a drop in the unemployment rate failedto extend a weekly rally and lift the Standard & Poor's 500 Index above its October high.

Stocks Stall Ahead Of December Jobs Report

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click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- U.S. stocks ended mixed Thursday afternoon, as the dollar strengthened and investors mulled a rise in jobless claims and softer-than-expected same-store retail sales ahead of the December jobs report due Friday.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) finished down 26 points, or 0.2%, with shares of Verizon (VZ, Fortune 500), Travelers Companies (TRV, Fortune 500), and AT&T (T, Fortune 500) leading the decline. Meanwhile Microsoft (MSFT, Fortune 500), Boeing (BA, Fortune 500), and Hewlett Packard (HPQ, Fortune 500) posted the biggest gains.

The S&P 500 (SPX) fell 3 points, or 0.2%, as weak retail sales weighed on the broad index. Gap (GPS, Fortune 500) and Target (TGT, Fortune 500) were among the biggest losers.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq (COMP) gained 8 points, or 0.3%, led by a 13.8% jump in shares of chipmaker Nvidia (NVDA).

Stocks have trended upward this week, as positive economic reports have buoyed investor confidence about the recovery. Wednesday's strong report on private sector payrolls from ADP helped push the Dow to a fresh two-year high for the third day in a row.

Though investors are hoping that the government's monthly employment figures due before the opening bell Friday will also show signs of a brightening jobs pictures, they hesitated to take big positions Thursday.

"Yesterday's report on private sector payrolls was extremely strong, but today's data on unemployment claims puts the reliability of that number in question," said Dave Hinnenkamp, CEO of KDV Wealth Management. "It's crucial that the monthly figures tomorrow come in strong. Anything less than expected will be a major disappointment to the market."

Economy: The Labor Department reported that the number of Americans filing for first-time unemployment benefits ticked back above 400,000 last week -- rising by 18,000 to 409,000 in the latest week.

Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had expected jobless claims to increase to 405,000.

* 2011: Happy New Job!

On Friday, the government's monthly jobs report is expected to show employers boosted payrolls by 150,000 last month, following a 39,000 increase in November, according to a CNNMoney survey of 27 economists.

That comes on the heels of a report from payroll processor ADP issued Wednesday, showing that private-sector employers added 297,000 jobs in December. Economists had been looking for a rise of 100,000.

* Video - Economy in 2011: Another roller coaster?

Companies: Monthly same-store sales figures are due throughout the morning from major retailers. So far sales results are coming in weaker-than-expected, with retailers citing the major snowstorm that hit the East Coast, extra deep discounts and shopper fatigue. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expected an overall gain of 3.4% from a year ago.

Before the opening bell, Costco (COST, Fortune 500) logged a 6% jump in December same-store sales, beating the 6.2% increase expected by a Thomson Reuters consensus of analysts. Shares of the retailer finished slightly lower.

Shares of Target (TGT, Fortune 500) and Gap (GPS, Fortune 500) fell almost 7% after the retailers' December same-store sales missed big. Sales at discounter Target rose just 0.9% compared to estimates for a 4% increase, and No. 1 clothing chain Gap's sales fell 3% despite heavy discounts in December.

Shares of MetroPCS Communications (PCS) sank 6.7% after the prepaid wireless provider said its fourth-quarter subscriber growth slowed from the prior quarter, when it tripled the number of customers it signed up.

Shares of BP (BP) edged lower after the National Commission on the BP Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill and Offshore Drilling released a report spreading the blame for the Gulf of Mexico oil spill. The commission said that problems with deepwater drilling are "systemic" and that only "significant reform" will prevent another disaster.

World markets: European stocks finished mixed. Britain's FTSE 100 fell 0.4%, while the DAX in Germany rose 0.6%. France's CAC 40 finished unchanged.

Asian markets ended the session mixed. The Shanghai Composite slipped 0.5%, while the Hang Seng in Hong Kong edged up 0.1% and Japan's Nikkei rose 1.4%.

Late Wednesday, Chinese Vice Premier Li Keqiang said China will buy about 6 billion euros ($7.9 billion) of Spanish government debt, according to news reports citing Spanish newspaper El Pais.

Currencies and commodities: The dollar rose against the euro for a fourth consecutive day, rising more than 1% to $1.3016. It also rose 0.3% against the British pound. The greenback edged up slightly versus the Japanese yen. The dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency against a basket of rival currencies, rose 0.6%.

A stronger buck weighs on commodity prices, which are priced in dollars.

Oil for February delivery lost $1.92, or 2.1%, to settle $88.38 a barrel.

Gold futures for February delivery fell $2.00, or 0.3%, to settle at $1,371.70 an ounce.

Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury rose, pushing the yield down to 3.41%, from 3.47% late Friday.

Image

Market Update

4:30 pm : Although the stock market was able to come back from an early slide, its inability to push into positive territory left it to chop its way into the close for a lackluster finish.

The December payrolls report initially provided a lift to premarket sentiment. It featured a headline unemployment rate of 8.5%, which is down from the 8.6% in the prior month and less than the 8.7% that had been widely anticipated. Moreover, nonfarm payrolls climbed by 200,000, which exceeds the increase of 150,000 that had been expected. Private payrolls increased by 212,000 to exceed the consensus call for an increase of 170,000.

However, stocks were hit with selling pressure once the session opened. As was the case in the two previous sessions, stocks were able to stabilize and gradually work their way higher, but a lack of leadership prevented the broad market from overcoming resistance at the flat line.

Although the stock market was unable to close the week on a positive note, it displayed resilience in the face of a weaker euro, which fell about 0.6% to what is basically a new 16-month low of $1.27.

Recent market action may not have been all that exciting, but a strong gain on Tuesday helped the stock market book a weekly gain of 1.6%. For some prognosticators, that makes for a promising start to 2012, which many believe will still be driven by global financial and economic conditions, especially those in Europe. The Presidential election is also in the mix, as are corporate earnings. Earnings season gets its unofficial start early next week.

Trade this week began on Tuesday since domestic markets were closed on Monday in observance of New Year's Day. Stocks put together their best performance of the week by advancing about 1.6%, but the S&P 500 was unable to overcome resistance at its multi-month closing high of 1285.

Manufacturing data from China, India, a couple of corners of Europe provided encouragement to buyers. Even domestic manufacturing proved pleasing -- the December ISM Manufacturing Index improved to 53.9 from 52.7 in November so that it exceeded the reading of 53.4 that had been widely expected.

Construction spending for November increased by 1.2%, which bested the 0.5% increase that had been generally expected after a downwardly revised 0.2% decline during October.

Minutes from the most recent FOMC meeting proved unsurprising by stating only that domestic economic activity recently expanded moderately. Although the pace economic activity is expected to pick up, some committee members communicated that current and prospective conditions could warrant additional policy accommodation.

Trade on Wednesday had a flat finish as concerns about financial conditions in Spain and uncertainty over the financial flexibility of Hungary brought the negative themes of 2011 back into focus. Also in the mix were cautious comments from officials in China regarding the country's economic outlook.

On Thursday the Nasdaq made a nice gain, but the broad market mustered only a modest gain after working its way up from a marked loss in morning trade. A weaker euro and rising debt yields in Europe -- signs of the same old concerns about financial and economic conditions there -- dampened the mood of many traders, but the negativity was partly tempered by an ADP Employment Change that reported private payrolls increased by 325,000 during December. An increase of 180,000 had been generally expected.

Weekly initial jobless claims count declined by 15,000 week-over-week to 372,000, which is on par with the 375,000 initial claims that had been widely anticipated. The ISM Services Index for December did little to surprise by coming in at 52.6, which is only slightly less than the 53.0 that had been broadly forecasted. December same-store sales were also of little influence, due to their underwhelming results. DJ30 -55.78 NASDAQ +4.36 NQ100 +0.3% R2K -0.3% SP400 0.0% SP500 -3.25 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1118/1.70 bln/1388 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1405/710 mln/1603

3:30 pm : Crude oil futures prices fell $1.45, or 1.4%, to close pit trade at $101.77 per barrel. In contrast, natural gas prices closed $0.08, or 2.7%, higher at $3.06 per MMBtu.

As for precious metals, gold prices shed $5.60, or 0.3%, to close at $1617.30 per ounce. The yellow metal had been as low as $1609 per ounce. Silver prices fell $0.67, or 2.3%, to close pit trade at $28.72 per ounce.

Commodities collectively scored a 0.3% gain, according to the CRB Index. DJ30 -46.50 NASDAQ +8.25 SP500 -2.19 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1265/1.30 bln/1235 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1500/460 mln/1500

3:00 pm : The stock market has chopped its way into the final hour. As things currently stand, it appears that the S&P 500 is on pace for its second straight flat finish.

With hardly 400 million shares exchanged on the NYSE today, share volume has been paltry today. To be fair, though, there has been a lack of participation all week. The lack of share volume is unlikely due to outright apathy, but probably because so many traders are still out on holiday leave. With end-of-year vacations rounding out and earnings season set to make its unofficial start after the close of trade on Monday, share volume is likely to see a strong increase. DJ30 -42.69 NASDAQ +8.59 SP500 -1.72 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1325/1.20 bln/1155 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1585/415 mln/1400

2:30 pm : Resistance at the neutral line continues to keep the S&P 500 from putting together a gain. Despite the listless and lackluster action today, the stock market remains on track to book a weekly gain of almost 2%. The bulk of that came earlier in the week when stocks climbed to test multi-month highs, which they failed to overtake.DJ30 -32.73 NASDAQ +8.87 SP500 -0.91 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1315/1.12 bln/1145 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1645/385 mln/1310

2:00 pm : Stocks have benefited from a sudden bout of buying interest, but the broad market remains unable to generate enough momentum to overcome resistance at the neutral line. Strikingly, the broad market bounce has come without any clear catalyst or influential headline.

The dollar continues to trade with a solid 0.4% lead over a basket of major foreign currencies. The Dollar Index is on pace for a weekly gain of 1.3%, which makes for its best weekly performance in three weeks. DJ30 -28.27 NASDAQ +8.65 SP500 -0.78 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1160/1.01 bln/1270 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1400/350 mln/1555

1:30 pm : The S&P 500 continues to drift slowly off of the flat line, but it's still above the lows that it set earlier in the session.

Financials are back to weighing on broad market trade. The sector actually overcame an early loss of more than 1% to trade unchanged for the day, but it has since rolled over to trade with a 0.7% loss, making it one of the poorest performing groups of the day. DJ30 -47.38 NASDAQ +4.08 SP500 -3.06 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1155/950 mln/1255 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1420/330 mln/1525

1:00 pm : A better-than-expected monthly payrolls report failed to prevent stocks from sliding in early action, and even though those losses were reversed, stocks have had a hard time sustaining the move.

Premarket participants responded positively to news that the unemployment rate eased down to 8.5% in December from 8.6% in the prior month. Additionally, both nonfarm payrolls and private payrolls climbed more than expected with increases of 200,000 and 212,000, respectively.

The greenback also garnered buying interest in the wake of the jobs report. That put added pressure on the euro, which is trading near 15-month lows of about $1.27.

Although the dollar has preserved its gain since the release of the jobs report, interest in stocks soured at the start of the session so that the major equity averages slid to modest losses.

However, for the third straight day the stock market has managed to overcome early weakness. That said, a lack of leadership has made it difficult for stocks to extend their climb off of morning lows. As such, the broad market has eased off of the flat line so that it is back in the red with a narrow loss.

Ahead of its quarterly report early next week, Alcoa (AA 9.09, -0.27) announced plans to curtail its smelting capacity. That has left the stock to trade with a sizable loss all session. DJ30 -40.38 NASDAQ +5.35 SP500 -2.18 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1220/865 mln/1180 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1480/300 mln/1450

12:30 pm : The broad market remains mired near the neutral line. It will be interesting to see which direction it takes in afternoon action since this is actually the third straight session in which stocks slid at the open but then managed to secure support and work their way higher by late morning trade.

Even though the stock market is teetering on the flat line, which is basically its best level of the day, Treasuries have set new session highs. Their climb has taken the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note down to 1.95%. DJ30 -18.69 NASDAQ +9.44 SP500 -0.34 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1275/780 mln/1105 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1560/270 mln/1345

12:00 pm : Stocks are attempting to extend their climb, but momentum appears to have slowed now that the S&P 500 is testing positive territory. The broad market measure's hesitation comes as a consequence of listlessness today.DJ30 -19.26 NASDAQ +9.32 SP500 +0.42 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1325/690 mln/1040 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1650/240 mln/1225

11:30 am : Although selling pressure has diminished since the early going, a lack of leadership continues to keep the broad market mired narrowly beneath the neutral line.

There haven't been any meaningful catalysts for trade since this morning. Amid a dearth of corporate announcements the only dose of data given to participants was the monthly payrolls report, which proved better than expected. Meanwhile, the euro, which remains a barometer of sentiment across the Atlantic, has struggled all session to reverse its downward direction. DJ30 -31.62 NASDAQ +4.91 SP500 -1.65 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1140/565 mln/1180 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1505/205 mln/1340

11:00 am : Stocks recently worked their way up from session lows, but neither the Dow nor the S&P 500 has been able to test the neutral line. In contrast, the Nasdaq has successfully poked into positive territory. The Nasdaq also outperformed its counterparts in the prior session.

Microsoft (MSFT 27.84, +0.16) is a source of strength for the Nasdaq for the second straight session. Its latest effort has been complemented by Amazon.com (AMZN 183.98, +6.37), which has broken out to a three-week high today. DJ30 -48.51 NASDAQ +1.32 SP500 -2.86 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 975/445 mln/1275 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1295/165 mln/1525

10:35 am : The dollar index picked up steam earlier this morning and has been in positive territory all morning. In recent trade, the dollar index hit another new session high, which is weighing on commodities. Positive jobs numbers earlier this morning initially gave commodities a boost, but those gains quickly vanished.

In the energy space, crude oil was been in positive territory all morning, but began to sell off hard about an hour ago. During the sell-off, crude fell from around $102.20 to below the $101 mark. In current trade, crude is down 0.8% at $101.06/barrel. Natural gas has been in positive territory all morning and just hit a new session high of $3.07 about 30 minutes ago. Currently, nat gas is up 1.3% at $3.06/MMBtu.

Precious metals, sold off in recent activity along with crude, largely on the strength in the dollar index. Gold fell as low as $1610.20/oz and is now down 0.4% at $1613.20/oz. Silver fell as low as $%28.59/oz during its sell-off and is now 1.9% lower at $28.75/oz.DJ30 -41.32 NASDAQ -1.35 SP500 -3.28 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 919/402 mln/1311 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1227/152 mln/1567

10:00 am : Stocks have had a hard time fighting off early selling pressure. The slide, although still modest in scope, comes amid a lack of leadership. The lack of strength among the many groups has left all 10 major sectors to move into negative territory.DJ30 -70.01 NASDAQ -8.06 SP500 -6.45 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 655/120 mln/1360 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 825/65 mln/1765

09:45 am : Selling pressure at the open has sent the major equity averages into negative territory. Overall losses remain modest, though.

Financials were a source of positive leadership in the prior session, but the sector is weighing on action this morning. Financials, as a group, are already down 1.0%, which makes them one of the worst performing sectors this morning. Telecom stocks are actually in worse shape; the lightly weighted sector is down 1.8% as shares of Sprint (S 2.19, -0.05) push lower. DJ30 -47.00 NASDAQ -3.44 SP500 -4.32 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +2.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.20. Gains made by stock futures in the wake of a better-than-expected jobs report have petered out, but the greenback has managed to maintain a modest lead over the euro, which is down another 0.3% to trade at a new 15-month low of about $1.275. The greenback's gain has put some pressure on commodities, but oil prices have been able to hold their ground in positive territory -- the energy component currently trades at $102.35 per barrel for a 0.5% gain. Corporate news flow remains slow ahead of the unofficial start to earnings season when Dow component Alcoa (AA 9.09, -0.27) reports quarterly results early next week. However, news that Alcoa plans to curtail its smelting capacity has its shares down nearly 3% ahead of the open. Note: ticker quotes reflect premarket prices.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -0.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.50. Gains by the greenback in the wake of a better-than-expected jobs report recently clipped several key commodities. That has the CRB Commodity Index at its morning low, clinging to a gain of only 0.1%. Among its most commonly quoted components, oil prices are currently at $102 per barrel, which makes for a 0.2% gain. Natural gas prices are at $3.06 per MMBtu, which makes for a 1.4% gain. Among precious metals, gold prices are holding on to a fractional gain at $1623 per ounce, while silver trades with a 0.5% loss at $29.15 per ounce.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +3.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +5.70. Both stock futures and the dollar have pushed higher following the release of the official monthly jobs report. The headline unemployment rate eased down to 8.5% from 8.6%. It had actually been expected to rise to 8.7%. Nonfarm payrolls climbed during December by 200,000, which is greater than the increase of 150,000 that had been expected, on average, among economists polled by Briefing.com. Nonfarm private payrolls increased by 212,000, which also exceeds the corresponding consensus estimate for an increase of 170,000.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -0.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -0.30. Stock futures are essentially flat ahead of the official monthly payrolls report, which is due at the bottom of the hour. Meanwhile, many of Europe's major bourses are displaying strength in the face of some relatively mixed data there. However, the euro has been unable to escape selling pressure. Although it is currently down only fractionally, the loss is still enough to keep the currency below $1.28.

06:23 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -3.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.00.

06:23 am : Nikkei...8390.35...-98.40...-1.20%. Hang Seng...18593.06...-220.40...-1.20%.

06:23 am : FTSE...5633.73...+9.50...+0.20%. DAX...6100.33...+4.30...+0.10%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

Phone: +1.708.572.4885
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