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 Post subject: January 5th Thursday 2012 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +13.40
PostPosted: Thu Jan 05, 2012 9:41 pm 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)

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click on the above image to view today's performance verification

Trade Performance for Today: +13.40 points or $1340 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, all trades were posted real-time in the free #FuturesTrades chat room. Today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs provides details (e.g. time, price, contract size) about each one of my trades from entry to exit along with price action commentary as the trade traversed...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=100&t=1107.

To join our free chat room...registration instructions located at a different forum @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=630

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=148&t=1341

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Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/IMF actions or any important global economic events that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables (key market events) causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that results in swing points and strong continuation price actions. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for my technical analysis. Just as important, these summaries becomes my archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past...something I can not get from my broker statements alone.

U.S. Stock Market Wrap

Jan. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Bloomberg's Deborah Kostroun reports on the performance of the U.S. equity market today. Most U.S. stocks rose, sending the Standard & Poor's 500 Index higher for a third day, as a rally by banks and improving jobs data offset reduced profit forecasts at companies including Target Corp. and J.C. Penney Co. Pimm Fox also speaks.

Dow Climbs Again In 3-Day Winning Streak

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click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- U.S. stocks climbed Wednesday, with the Dow posting a fresh two-year high for the third day in a row, as investors started to position themselves for the new year.

"The past year was pretty good and it seems to me that in the new part of the new year, you're kind of repositioning your portfolio in some way that suits your temperament," said Peter Tuz, president at Chase Investment Counsel of Charlottesville, Va.

At the closing bell, the Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) was up 32 points, or 0.3%, to a new 2-year high of 11,723. The Dow keeps breaking new 2-year highs, as it approaches 11,800.

Of the Dow's 30 components, 18 rose, with financials American Express (AXP, Fortune 500), Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500) leading the way.

Meanwhile, the S&P 500 (SPX) added 6 points, or 0.5%; and the Nasdaq (COMP) gained 21 points, or 0.8%.

Traders and economists alike are generally more optimistic about the economy in 2011. Earlier Wednesday, two separate reports signaled a brightening jobs picture and stoked optimism that the government's monthly labor report on Friday will also bring good news.

"My expectation is employment will start picking up a little steam just because the economy is picking up," said Erick Maronak, managing director at Victory Capital Management. "CEOs and management teams are expected to hire at a better clip his year than last, and that correlates with their investments overall."

Stocks started the year with a bang, but have had volatile trading days this week as investors pick and choose their spots.

Following better-than-expected reports on factory orders and auto sales, the major indexes ended a tumultuous session mixed Tuesday.

* Stocks in 2011: Recovery to continue

Economy: Before the opening bell, outplacement firm Challenger Gray & Christmas reported that planned job cuts fell 59% to 530,000 in 2010 -- the lowest level in 13 years.

Meanwhile, private sector payrolls soared by 297,000 in December, according to a separate report from payroll processor ADP. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com were expecting the report to show that payrolls increase by 100,000 last month, compared to November's 93,000 rise.

The two reports set a positive tone ahead of Friday's monthly jobs report. Economists expect employers boosted payrolls by 135,000 in December, following a 39,000 increase in November.

* Video - 2011: Year of the job carousel

After the opening bell, a report from the Institute of Supply Management showed that activity in the service sector picked up last month. The index rose to 57.1 in December, topping forecasts, and up from 55 in November. Any reading above 50 signals expansion.

Meanwhile, Republican and Democratic leaders launched the 112th Congress, with the GOP taking control of the House after four years of Democratic control. The new Congress pledges to make job creation its first priority.

Companies: Walt Disney (DIS, Fortune 500) rose 2.5%, hitting a 52-week high, after both Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs released bullish research reports about the media company.

In a letter released by the Securities and Exchange Commission Tuesday, insurance giant AIG (AIG, Fortune 500) reported it had received a $3 billion bid for its Taiwan unit back in November. The news sent AIG shares surging 7.3% Wednesday.

Wireless tech giant Qualcomm (QCOM, Fortune 500) agreed to buy chip maker Atheros Communications (ATHR) for $3.1 billion in cash, or $45 per share, a 22% premium over Atheros' closing price on Monday. Shares of Atheros rose 1.5%, while Qualcomm's stock rose 2.1%.

Family Dollar Stores (FDO, Fortune 500) tumbled 8.8%, after the discount retailer reporter first-quarter earnings that fell short of analyst expectations. Family Dollar earned 58 cents per share, below analysts' expectations of 61 cents per share.

Expedia and Orbitz also posted major gains Wednesday, as did American Airlines' parent AMR Corp. (AMR, Fortune 500) after an AMR executive said he hopes to reach an agreement with the online travel agents to let them resume booking American flights.

The discount airfare websites are in a heated sales dispute with the carrier after American pulled its fare data to sell flights on its own system.

Expedia (EXPE) shares gained 4.1%, Orbitz Worldwide (OWW) rose 2.1% and AMR rallied 5.8%.

* Video - Borders' financial fallout

World markets: European stocks ended mixed. Britain's FTSE 100 rose 0.5%, while the DAX in Germany fell 0.5% and France's CAC 40 slipped 0.6%.

Asian markets also ended mixed. The Shanghai Composite ticked down 0.5% and Japan's Nikkei fell 0.2%, while the Hang Seng in Hong Kong rose 0.4%.

* Commodities '11: $100 oil, $1,500 gold

Currencies and commodities: The dollar rose against the euro, the Japanese yen and the British pound.

Oil for February delivery gained 92 cents to settle at $90.30 a barrel.

Gold futures for February delivery fell $5.10 to settle at $1,373.70 an ounce.

Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury fell, pushing the yield up to 3.47% from 3.34% late Tuesday.

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Market Update

4:30 pm : Leadership from financials helped give the broad market a modest gain after market participants weighed the troubles of Europe against the latest dose of domestic data.

The same old concerns about financial and economic conditions in Europe took yields on sovereign debt in the country higher today and kept constant pressure on the euro, which descended more than 1% to a 15-month low just beneath $1.280. News that many of Europe's financial institutions still prefer to park their cash at the European Central Bank was also regarded as a sign of diffidence in the region.

Negativity stemming from those themes was temporarily tempered prior to the open by the latest ADP Employment Change, which offered an encouraging glimpse into the official nonfarm payrolls report due tomorrow by suggesting that private payrolls increased by 325,000 during December. The jump in payrolls far exceeded the increase of 180,000 that had been expected, on average, by economists polled by Briefing.com.

The latest weekly initial jobless claims count declined by 15,000 week-over-week to 372,000, which is on par with the 375,000 initial claims that had been widely anticipated, but that report received less attention since it was hardly surprising.

The latest ISM Services Index, which was released shortly after the open, didn't garner a great deal of attention either. It came in at 52.6 for December, up from 52.0 in the prior month, but still slightly less than the 53.0 that had actually been broadly forecasted.

Although data was regarded as in-line to positive, stocks still slumped to a marked loss in morning trade. However, once initial support levels held stocks were able to begin working their way higher. In contrast to the prior session, though, the broad market was able to push into positive territory, rather than be rebuffed at the flat line.

Financials were primary driver in the stock market's effort to trade higher. The sector scored a 1.4% gain with help from bank stocks, which collectively climbed almost 2%, as measured by the KBW Bank Index.

Agricultural plays Monsanto (MON 76.68, +4.01) and Mosaic (MOS 53.30, +1.00) were among the top individual performers of the session, thanks to better-than-expected earnings results. Despite their strength, the rest of the materials sector scored a gain of only 0.3%.

The consumer discretionary sector was able to put together a 0.7% gain despite early weakness among retailers, which were initially weighed down by an underwhelming round of same-store sales results for December.

Advancing Sectors: Financials +1.4%, Consumer Discretionary +0.7%, Tech +0.5%, Materials +0.3%, Health Care +0.2%, Utilities +0.2%
Unchanged: Industrials
Declining Sectors: Consumer Staples -0.2%, Telecom -0.5%, Energy -0.6%DJ30 -2.72 NASDAQ +21.50 NQ100 +0.8% R2K +0.7% SP400 +0.7% SP500 +3.76 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1537/1.85 bln/977 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1839/829 mln/1186

3:30 pm : Crude oil futures prices fell $1.45, or 1.4%, to settle pit trade at $101.77 per barrel. The energy component set a session low of $101.58. Bearish inventory numbers hampered the commodity for most of the session. Natural gas inventory data wasn't particularly encouraging to buyers either. That left the commodity to extend its descent by another $0.12, or 3.9%, to $2.98 per MMBtu.

As for precious metals, gold prices overcame selling pressure this morning to post a gain of $8.80, or 0.5%, by finishing pit trade at $1622.90 per ounce. Silver also overcame selling; it settled at $29.39 per ounce, which makes for a gain of $0.25 or 0.9%.

Despite the rebound by precious metals, the CRB Commodity Index still suffered a 1.7% loss. DJ30 -7.75 NASDAQ +17.27 SP500 +2.50 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1445/1.45 bln/1055 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1720/550 mln/1275

3:00 pm : Stocks have drifted off of session highs, but the broad market continues to hold its ground modestly above the flat line.

Financials, up 1.2% as a group, continue to provide pivotal support to the rest of the equity market. The sector is actually on pace for a weekly gain of about 3.5%, which makes financials one of this week's strongest groups. The performance comes the very first week after the financial sector settled 2011 with an annual loss of about 18%, which is worse than what any other major sector suffered. DJ30 -6.35 NASDAQ +18.67 SP500 +3.02 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1465/1.33 bln/1035 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1770/500 mln/1215

2:30 pm : Stocks are petering out some of their recent gains as they enter the final leg of today's trade. Although the decline in support has left the Dow to drift back into negative territory, the Nasdaq continues to sport a strong gain while the S&P 500 holds steady to a modest gain.

With less than a half billion shares traded thus far on the NYSE, share volume is paltry for the second straight session, despite the abundance of data and catalysts today. The lack of participation suggests that many regular traders may remain on holiday leave. DJ30 -10.34 NASDAQ +17.64 SP500 +2.19 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1510/1.23 bln/970 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1900/460 mln/1080

2:00 pm : Stocks have paused to take a breather now that the S&P 500 has climbed more than 1% from its session low to its recent high. The broad market measure is still a few points shy of its multi-month high in the area of 1285, however. That region was rife with resistance when stocks attempted to test it earlier this week.DJ30 +7.16 NASDAQ +21.96 SP500 +4.35 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1505/1.11 bln/965 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1890/415 mln/1085

1:30 pm : Stocks have extended their climb so that all three major equity averages are now at new session highs. The Nasdaq is out in front, boasting the biggest gain of the trio. Its strength with help from large-cap tech plays like Microsoft (MSFT 27.66, +0.26) and Intel (INTC 25.38, +0.27), although fellow Nasdaq components Google (GOOG 661.81, -6.47) and Cisco (CSCO 18.88, -0.11) continue to contend with pronounced selling pressure.DJ30 -2.00 NASDAQ +21.39 SP500 +4.11 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1355/1.00 bln/1100 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1730/380 mln/1225

1:00 pm : Just as it did in the prior session, the stock market suffered a sizable loss in the early going before beginning to work its way to the neutral line. In contrast to yesterday, though, financials have offered leadership.

Negativity associated with continued concerns about macro conditions in Europe and news from the European Central Bank that financial institutions in the continent generally remain reluctant to lend cash was partly tempered this morning by the latest ADP Employment Change. The Employment Change report indicated that during December private payrolls increased by 325,000, which is far greater than what had been widely expected. The latest weekly initial jobless claims tally proved unsurprising at 372,000.

The ISM Services Index for December hit 52.6, but that was still shy of the 53.0 that had actually been broadly expected. The release of the report came right around the same time that stocks were able to find preliminary support with the S&P 500 touching the 1266 line.

Although the path higher has been choppy, financials have helped lead the broad market out of negative territory. The sector is now up more than 1% after overcoming a loss in the early going.

Strength among financials has been partly offset by weakness among energy stocks, which are collectively down more than 1%. Lower oil prices following bearish weekly inventory data has undermined interest in the energy space.

Many retailers were weakened by a mixed bag of same-store sales results for December, taking the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT 52.20, -0.18) to a two-week low, but they group has managed to trim losses over the course of the past couple of hours.

The stock market's efforts to trade higher have come in the face of continued weakness in the euro, which set a new 52-week low today. It is currently down 1.1% to $1.279. DJ30 -15.25 NASDAQ +14.14 SP500 +1.94 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1100/895 mln/1310 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1435/335 mln/1510

12:30 pm : Stocks have regrouped from a recent slip to work their way up to a narrowly improved session high, but the S&P 500 still hasn't found positive territory. Financials, now up 0.8%, are trying hard to lead the broad market measure to higher ground, however.DJ30 -38.90 NASDAQ +8.61 SP500 -0.97 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1070/805 mln/1320 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1365/300 mln/1560

12:00 pm : The market's recent upturn lost momentum before the S&P 500 could make its way into positive territory. That has left it mired in the red with a modest loss.

Energy stocks, which make up one of the more influential sectors, continue to take a heavy toll on broad market action. They are currently down with a collective loss greater than 1%.

Financials were a drag during most of the prior session, but the sector has actually provided support today. As a group, financials are up 0.5%. Most of the sector's strength stems from interest in banking plays. Among banking outfits, regional lenders are actually showing strength for the second straight session. DJ30 -45.55 NASDAQ +4.65 SP500 -2.22 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1030/725 mln/1335 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1310/270 mln/1580

11:30 am : A sudden bounce by stocks has put the Nasdaq in positive territory, albeit by only a single point, and the S&P 500 only marginally below the flat line. Those levels mark fresh session highs for the pair of indices.

The upward push by stocks comes without any clear catalyst or headline. What's more impressive is that the move comes in the face of continued strength by the dollar, which has maintained a lead of almost 1% over a collection of competing currencies. For several weeks stocks have had an inverse relationship with the dollar and a positive relationship with the euro, given that it acts as a barometer for sentiment and confidence in the eurozone. DJ30 -50.49 NASDAQ +1.61 SP500 -2.87 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 755/570 mln/1555 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 890/220 mln/1965

11:00 am : Stocks failed to sustain a recent rebound attempt. That has left the major equity averages to retreat deeper into the red.

Energy stocks are among the worst performers this session. The sector has slid to a 1.3% loss, partly attributable to a recent drop in oil prices to $102 per barrel, which makes for a 1.1% loss. Oil's slip comes in conjunction with weekly inventory data that showed a build of 2.2 million barrels when a draw of 500,000 barrels had been broadly anticipated. DJ30 -101.83 NASDAQ -7.44 SP500 -8.03 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 710/470 mln/1555 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 825/185 mln/2010

10:35 am : Stocks have been trying to trim their losses in recent trade. Tech and financials have done the best job thus far -- both are near the flat line after they had traded with significant losses in the opening minutes.

Most of the commodities complex continues to wrestle with weakness, however. That has the CRB Index to trade with a 0.8% loss.

Among the more closely tracked commodities, natural gas prices remain under stiff pressure so that they trade at $3.05 per MMBtu for a 2.4% loss following inventory data that showed a draw of 76 bcf, which contrasts with the consensus call for a draw of 80 bcf. Crude oil prices are down 0.6% to $102.60 per barrel ahead of its weekly oil inventory report at 11:00 AM ET.

Among precious metals, both gold and silver have improved their position since early pit trade so that they now grade with a 0.3% loss at $1608 per ounce and a 0.5% loss at $28.93 per ounce, respectively. DJ30 -90.40 NASDAQ -5.94 SP500 -7.40 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 680/335 mln/1540 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 715/140 mln/2045

10:05 am : Stocks are trying to stabilize after their opening descent, but trade remains choppy near session lows. The latest dose of data hasn't really done anything to change things -- the ISM Services Index improved to 52.6 in December from 52.0 in November, but the December reading is still slightly less than the 53.0 that had actually been expected, on average, among economists polled by Briefing.com.

While stocks are stuck near session lows, the dollar has managed to build on its early strength. It now leads a collection of competing currencies by 1.0%. That puts the greenback on pace for a weekly gain of about 0.9%. DJ30 -120.11 NASDAQ -12.47 SP500 -10.56 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 580/105 mln/1495 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 515/65 mln/2110

09:45 am : Stocks opened in negative territory and are now sliding deeper into the red. The downturn has taken the S&P 500 beneath its prior session low.

As was the case in the prior session, there are no legitimate leaders to help offset broad market selling pressure. Widespread weakness has all 10 major sectors in negative territory; nearly half of them are down by about 1% or more. DJ30 -111.36 NASDAQ -14.12 SP500 -10.88 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -5.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -3.20. Stocks experienced some selling in the prior session because of renewed concerns about financial conditions in Europe. Without any new developments to assuage such concerns, yields on the debt of many European countries are on the climb and domestic stock futures have been unable to overcome premarket selling pressure despite a better-than-expected ADP Employment Change reading and an in-line weekly initial jobless claims count. December same-store sales results haven't been strong enough to encourage buyers and the handful of quarterly earnings posted since the prior session's close have been mixed overall. Still to come, though, is the latest ISM Service Index at 10:00 AM ET. Also on today's calendar of events are weekly natural gas inventory numbers and oil inventory data at 10:30 AM ET and 11:00 AM ET, respectively.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -6.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -5.00. A recent slip to $102.70 per barrel has oil prices down 0.5% in the opening minutes of pit trade. Prices could experience some volatility with the release of weekly inventory data at 11:00 AM ET. Before that, though, traders get their hands on weekly natural gas inventory numbers at 10:30 AM ET. Natural gas prices are currently down a steep 2.3% to $3.05 per MMBtu. Among precious metals, gold prices are down 0.8% to $1600 per ounce, while silver has slid 1.0% to $28.80 per ounce. General weakness in the commodity space has the CRB Index wrestling with a 0.5% loss.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -2.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.50. Stock futures have improved their position, but remain relatively mixed against fair value following a couple of important pieces of data. First off, U.S. private payrolls increased by 325,000, which is far more than the increase of 180,000 that had been broadly expected by economists polled by Briefing.com. Initial jobless claims for the week ended December 31 totaled 372,000, which is on par with the 375,000 initial weekly jobless claims that had been widely anticipated. The latest count was also down slightly from the prior week's upwardly revised tally of 387,000.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -7.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -6.70. Selling interest in Europe and a weakened euro in the wake of deposit data from the European Central Bank have weighed on stock futures this morning. Early participants are also digesting a mixed batch of December same-store sales results from retailers. There is also some uncertainty ahead of the latest ADP Employment Change and weekly initial jobless claims count, which are due at 8:15 AM ET and 8:30 AM ET, respectively. They are followed by the latest ISM Service Index is due at 10:00 AM ET. A couple of energy inventory reports are also due today with natural gas numbers scheduled for release at 10:30 AM ET and oil inventories on tap for 11:00 AM ET.

06:29 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -9.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -12.70.

06:29 am : Nikkei...8488.71...-71.40...-0.80%. Hang Seng...18813.41...+86.10...+0.50%.

06:29 am : FTSE...5624.90...-43.60...-0.80%. DAX...6069.13...-42.40...-0.70%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

Phone: +1.708.572.4885
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