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 Post subject: January 4th Wednesday 2012 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +4.20
PostPosted: Thu Jan 05, 2012 7:11 am 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)

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click on the above image to view today's performance verification

Trade Performance for Today: +4.20 points or $420 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, all trades were posted real-time in the free #FuturesTrades chat room. Today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs provides details (e.g. time, price, contract size) about each one of my trades from entry to exit along with price action commentary as the trade traversed...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=100&t=1106.

To join our free chat room...registration instructions located at a different forum @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=630

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=148&t=1341

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Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/IMF actions or any important global economic events that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables (key market events) causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that results in swing points and strong continuation price actions. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for my technical analysis. Just as important, these summaries becomes my archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past...something I can not get from my broker statements alone.

U.S. Stock Market Wrap

Jan. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Bloomberg's Deborah Kostroun reports on the performance of the U.S. equity market today. U.S. stocks erased an early loss to finish little changed, leaving the Dow Jones Industrial Average at the highest level since July, as improving sales at retailers and carmakers helped offset lower-than-forecast factory orders.

After Rocky Day, Stocks End Mixed

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click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- After a tumultuous day, U.S. stocks ended mixed Tuesday, as investors mulled over reports on auto sales, factory orders and the Federal Reserve's December meeting.

Stocks struggled for direction all day. After losing as much as 0.3% mid-day, the Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) ended the session up 20 points, closing at a fresh two-year high of 11,691.

Meanwhile, the S&P 500 (SPX) was down 2 points, or 0.1%; and the Nasdaq (COMP) fell 10 points, or 0.4%.

Throughout the day, investors weighed a better-than-expected factory orders report with concerns that stocks may be overextended, after posting double-digit percentage gains in 2010.

"We've had such a run here in the last four weeks, without any downside relief," said Rich Ilczyszyn, a market strategist with futures-broker Lind Waldock. "It's a normal market reaction, as we go up for a month or so and then we pull back."

Stocks ended 2010 with their best December since 1991, and some traders think they may have gotten a bit ahead of themselves. As a result, stocks were held back Tuesday as some investors tried to reap the rewards of their 2010 bets now -- in case the market falls back in January.

Traders also mulled over the minutes from the Federal Reserve's latest meeting in December, which showed that the central bank's policymakers remain committed to the purchase of $600 billion in U.S. Treasurys as a means of stimulating the economy.

Anticipation of that stimulus policy, referred to as "quantitative easing" or "QE2," had fueled bullish stock market gains in the second half of 2010. Investors had grown concerned about whether the Fed will follow through with the full $600 billion program in 2011.

The minutes alleviated some of those fears.

"Takeaway number one is they're not going to stop QE2 right now," said Doug Roberts, chief investment strategist at Channel Capital Research. "And it looks like from this, they're not as hesitant about QE3 as one might think."

* Stock recovery rally to continue

Stocks are coming off a rally on Monday, when the Dow closed at a fresh two-year high.

Economy: After the opening bell, the Commerce Department reported that November factory orders rose 0.7% in November, following a 0.7% decrease in October. Analysts surveyed by Briefing.com had expected total orders to fall by 0.3% during the month.

Investors also watched as major auto companies release their December sales figures throughout the day. General Motors was the first to report Tuesday morning, saying it ended a challenging 2010 with a bang.

GM's U.S. sales rose 8% in December from a year earlier -- the company's best sales month of the year. GM (GM) shares rose 2.3% after the news.

Ford Motor (F, Fortune 500) shares rose 0.8% after the company reported December sales were up 4% from a year ago.

Analysts surveyed by Briefing.com had expected overall auto sales for December to drop to 3.7 million, from 3.8 million the previous month. The fact that most automakers reported a strong sales month raised hopes for the industry heading into the new year.

Reports on jobless claims, job cuts and manufacturing are on tap later in the week, and the government's closely-watched jobs report is due Friday.

Economists expect the monthly report to show employers boosted payrolls by 135,000 last month, after adding 39,000 jobs in November.

Also on Friday, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is scheduled to testify before the Senate budget panel.

Companies: Motorola's long-awaited split into two separate companies went into effect at the start of trading Tuesday. The company's cell phone business now operates as Motorola Mobility Holdings Inc., under the stock symbol MMI (MMI). Motorola Solutions Inc., a company that makes other telecommunications gear, trades under MSI (MSI).

Motorola Mobility shares debuted at $31.17, and Motorola Solutions shares started at $37.30.

Shares of BP (BP) rose 2.5% after London newspaper the Daily Mail reported Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA) previously considered making a bid for the oil giant during the Gulf oil spill. Royal Dutch Shell shares rose 0.6% in .

Borders Group (BGP) stock fell 12.5%, after the company announced late Monday that its general counsel Thomas Carney and Chief Information Officer D. Scott Laverty both resigned.

World markets: European stocks were mixed, with Britain's FTSE 100 starting 2011 with a bang. The FTSE soared 1.7% in its first trading day of the new year, while the DAX in Germany fell 0.3% and France's CAC 40 rose 0.3%.

Asian markets ended the session higher. The Shanghai Composite jumped 1.6%, the Hang Seng in Hong Kong ticked up 1% and Japan's Nikkei gained 1.7%.

Currencies and commodities: The dollar lost ground against the the British pound, but gained versus the Japanese yen and the euro.

Oil for February delivery fell $2.17 to settle at $89.38 a barrel.

* Commodities: The bull that won't die - The Buzz

Gold futures for February delivery pulled back from the previous session's highs, slipping $44.10 to settle at $1,378.80 an ounce.

Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury fell, pushing the yield up to 3.34%.

Image

Market Update

4:30 pm : Stocks faltered in the early going amid a revival of themes that plagued equities in 2011. They battled back, but finished flat after repeatedly failing to do anything more than periodically poke into positive territory.

Sentiment was dampened this morning by concerns about financial conditions in Spain and uncertainty over the financial flexibility of Hungary, which is not a eurozone member, but is significant enough that weakness there could undermine continental conditions. China's Premier, Wen Jiabo, made note of the economic difficulty that his country faces, stirring some to reconsider the ability of China to lead a global economic recovery.

A lack of leadership in the face of those themes left stocks to slide, but the broad market secured support when the S&P 500 came in contact with the 1268 line. From there stocks slowly worked their way to the flat line, but never made any truly meaningful move above the neutral line.

Although they lack market weight, consumer discretionary stocks displayed strength. Apparel and accessories plays joined automakers, which reported solid December sales results, to take the sector to a 0.7% gain. No other sector performed as well.

Financials were laggards for the entire session, but a bounce by regional lenders helped the sector improve its position in afternoon trade. Financials finished the session with a 0.5% loss.

A barometer of economic and financial sentiment in Europe, the euro traded lower today. Its 0.8% slide to $1.294 more than offset its prior session climb. Other currencies fared better so the Dollar Index made a more moderate advance of 0.5%.

Treasuries failed to attract support in the face of the stock market's struggle to trade higher. That left the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note to return to about 2.0%.

Advancing Sectors: Energy +0.2%, Tech +0.3%, Industrials +0.5%, Materials +0.6%, Consumer Discretionary +0.7%
Declining Sectors: Health Care -0.6%, Telecom -0.6%, Financials -0.5%, Utilities -0.5%, Consumer Staples -0.2%DJ30 +21.04 NASDAQ -0.36 NQ100 +0.3% R2K -0.7% SP400 -0.3% SP500 +0.24 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 970/1.68 bln/1536 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1479/759 mln/1548

3:30 pm : It was a somewhat quieter session in the commodities complex today. Gold, however, managed to extend its rally to a third consecutive session after it posted gains of 0.9% to settle at $1612.70 per ounce. Silver, however, shed 1.5% to end at $29.14 per ounce after it was unable to extend its mid-morning rally to trade into positive territory. Strength in the dollar pressured silver futures.

Crude oil futures settled higher by 0.3% at $103.22 per barrel. Crude prices spiked close to a point on headlines that EU governments reached a deal in principle to ban imports of Iranian oil. Futures quickly gave back those gains, and spent the remainder of the day chopping around unchanged. Natural gas rallied 3.5% to settle at $3.10 per MMBtu. Futures were aided by colder weather across the major-consuming portions of the country.DJ30 +12.08 NASDAQ -0.03 SP500 -0.04 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1028/1.3 bln/1465 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1508/485.5 mln/1533

3:00 pm : The S&P 500 has poked into positive territory, but it has been slow to build on the move. That hesitation has kept it trading only narrowly above the neutral line.

The dollar has drifted sideways for most of the session, riding a gain of about 0.6% against a basket of major foreign currencies, namely the euro. DJ30 +14.38 NASDAQ +2.47 SP500 +0.42 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1010/1.15 bln/1470 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1455/425 mln/1525

2:30 pm : Toyota Motor (TM 68.36, +0.58) recently reported that its December sales were essentially unchanged from the same period one year ago, while Hyundai reported a 13% increase in total sales and Nissan (NSANY 18.11, -0.21) reported a near 8% increase. As for domestic auto manufacturers, General Motors (GM 21.17, +0.12) said its December U.S. sales increased by 5% year over year, but Chrysler experienced an annual increase of 37%. Ford (F 11.40, +0.27) said its total sales climbed 10%.DJ30 +15.14 NASDAQ -0.68 SP500 -0.14 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 920/1.05 bln/1540 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1385/390 mln/1580

2:00 pm : Stocks are back at the flat line after wavering a bit in recent trade. Resistance continues to keep the S&P 500 from finding positive territory, however.

Although they remain in negative territory with a 0.5% loss, the financial sector's move off of its session low has helped the broad market improve its position. By working their way upward, thanks partly to help from regional bank stocks like Zions (ZION 17.19, +0.43), Huntington (HBAN 5.73, +0.11), and Key Corp (KEY 7.85, +0.08), financials are no longer the worst performing sector of the session. That dishonorable distinction now belongs to health care, which is down 0.7% for the day. DJ30 +13.89 NASDAQ +0.14 SP500 +0.13 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 915/970 mln/1525 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1330/355 mln/1625

1:30 pm : Stocks have eased lower after the S&P 500 failed to find positive territory. Its counterparts have followed, such that the three major averages now trade with narrow losses. Action remains both lackluster and listless.DJ30 -7.30 NASDAQ -2.56 SP500 -1.68 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 900/885 mln/1525 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1325/330 mln/1620

1:00 pm : Along with cautious comments by China's leaders about the country's economic outlook, renewed concerns about financial conditions in the core and periphery of Europe put pressure on stocks this morning. The major averages have worked their way back to the neutral line, though.

The stock market was pushed down to an early loss of slightly less than 1%. Despite the lack of leadership, stocks were able to stabilize at initial support areas. They have since dashed losses.

Consumer discretionary stocks have emerged as strong performers in the face of the listless action, but the sector still lacks the weight to give it any meaningful influence over the broad market. Nonetheless, consumer discretionary stocks collectively boast a 0.8% gain. Apparel and accessories plays are among the sector's top performers, but automakers are also in strong shape amid their monthly sales reports.

Materials stocks have also overcome selling pressure. They now sport a 0.5% gain, collectively. Metals-related plays are primary leaders in the space, whereas agricultural chemical play Mosaic (MOS 52.20, -0.39) is weak ahead of its report this evening.

Financials have been the heaviest drag on trade today. Although the sector has more than halved its loss so that it is down 0.6% for the session, its weakness continues to hamper the broad market. That has been a factor in the broad market's struggle to cross out of the red and into positive territory.

Even though the stock market has been unable to find higher ground, Treasuries continue to trade with weakness. As such, the benchmark 10-year Note is down about a half of a point, which is enough to take its yield back to 2.00%.

The dollar has been benefiting from some safety seeking, given pessimism related to the persistent problems of the eurozone. The greenback is currently up 0.5% against a collection of competing currencies, but up 0.8% against the euro alone. DJ30 -7.68 NASDAQ -0.57 SP500 -1.13 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 890/805 mln/1500 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1340/300 mln/1600

12:30 pm : The S&P 500 recently moved up to the flat line, but was unable to cross into positive territory.

Materials stocks, which were among the best performers of the prior session, are benefiting from renewed strength. The sector has run up to a 0.6% gain. Dow component Alcoa (AA 9.46, +0.23) is a top performer in the space. Fellow metals play U.S. Steel (X 28.58, +0.42) is also displaying strength. DJ30 -1.96 NASDAQ -2.46 SP500 -0.93 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 900/725 mln/1485 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1305/270 mln/1605

12:00 pm : The stock market's effort to trim its loss was cut short in recent trade. That has left it to muddle along with a modest loss.

Consumer discretionary stocks are the only issues trading with any real strength this session. The sector currently boasts an enviable gain of about 0.6%, which has come because of bounces by apparel and accessories plays like Gap (GPS 18.95, +0.40), Urban Outfitters (URBN 28.54, +0.78), and Coach (COH 61.77, +1.73). Automaker Ford (F 11.44, +0.31) is also showing strength following its monthly sales report, which showed that its total U.S. sales climbed 10% during December. DJ30 -20.24 NASDAQ -6.12 SP500 -3.44 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 795/635 mln/1565 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1195/235 mln/1720

11:30 am : Stocks continue to work their way up from session lows, but they remain in the red with relatively modest losses. Leadership is virtually non-existent.

A barometer of economic and financial sentiment, the euro continues to trade with weakness. It is now down 0.9% against the greenback. That puts the currency at $1.293, which more than offsets its prior session climb. Weakened sentiment in Europe has weighed on the mood of stocks since the start of the session. DJ30 -26.37 NASDAQ -8.01 SP500 -4.86 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 690/515 mln/1630 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1000/200 mln/1875

11:05 am : Stocks recently rolled over to log new session lows, but have since managed to rebound. The stock market's effort to improve its position comes in the face of continued weakness among financials, which are now facing a collective loss of 1.2%.

Telecom stocks had displayed strength in the early going, but the sector was unable to escape the recent bout of broad market selling pressure. That makes Consumer Discretionary the only major sector in positive territory; they're up 0.5% as a group. DJ30 -35.49 NASDAQ -11.98 SP500 -5.56 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 580/432 mln/1715 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 825/172 mln/2035

10:30 am : The dollar index is showing some strength this morning, which is hitting select commodities.

Crude oil has been in the red for the majority of today's session. About an hour ago, the energy component rallied for about $1.40/barrel to its current session high of $103.83/barrel. Currently, crude is down 0.4% at $102.54/barrel. Natural gas futures are outperforming the rest of the energy sector with 1.8% in gains, now at $3.08/MMBtu.

Precious metals are mixed this morning, with silver down over 1% and gold modestly higher. Gold began to gain steam around 10am EST and rallied to its current session high of $1614.90/oz. In current trade, the precious metal is up 0.4% at $1607.40/oz. Silver has been in the red all morning and is currently down 1.4% at $29.15/oz.DJ30 -37.38 NASDAQ -16.20 SP500 -6.70 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 599/339 mln/1672 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 823/149 mln/2003

10:00 am : A move by oil prices into positive territory -- they are now up 0.3% to $103.20 per barrel -- has helped energy stocks trim their losses. Energy stocks are now essentially flat. Integrated players are still under moderate pressure, though.

Factory orders for November were just released, but they haven't had much of an impact on action. Orders for the month increased by 1.8%, which is less than the 2.1% increase that had been generally expected among economists polled by Briefing.com. DJ30 -16.61 NASDAQ -12.83 SP500 -4.18 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 540/100 mln/1545 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 810/65 mln/1845

09:45 am : The major equity averages are down with varied gains in the early going. There are no signs of legitimate leadership thus far.

Financials, off by 0.9%, have been a primary source of weakness. The sector actually helped pace the broad market's climb in the prior session by ascending to a gain greater than 2%. Telecom stocks, up 0.4%, are actually the best performers this morning, but the group lacks enough market weight to give it any meaningful influence over broad trade. DJ30 -18.54 NASDAQ -14.65 SP500 -4.48 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec NAN/NA/NA

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -5.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -6.60. Concerns about financial conditions in the core and periphery of Europe certainly didn't go away with the arrival of 2012; they are being cited by many market pundits for the tepid tone to today's premarket trade. China's leaders also failed to offer fodder for stocks by issuing cautious comments about the difficulty that the country's economy faces in the future. With yields on Spain's debt climbing, the euro retreating, and China undermining confidence in the global economic outlook, the dollar is benefiting from some safety seeking -- the greenback was last quoted with a 0.6% gain against a basket of major foreign currencies. There hasn't been any data for participants to digest just yet. Monthly factory orders figures, due at 10:00 AM ET, make up the only item on the calendar for today.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -4.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -6.60. Commodities put together their best collective performance in more than three months yesterday, but buying has generally waned so that the CRB Index has slipped to a slight loss this morning. Among its more commonly tracked components, oil prices are down 0.4% to $102.55 per barrel in the opening minutes of pit trade, but natural gas prices have pushed 1.6% higher to $3.07 per MMBtu. Among precious metals, gold prices are down 0.2% to $1597 per ounce, while silver is down 1.4% to $29.15 per ounce.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -3.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -4.10. Concerns about financial conditions in Spain and the financial flexibility of Hungary have dampened market sentiment in Europe, leaving Spain's IBEX to fall 2.0% and Hungary's BUX to tumble 1.7% while most of the region's other major bourses also slide into the red. Germany's DAX is currently down 0.9%. Financial outfits Commerzbank and Deutsche Bank (DB 38.79, -1.04) have been the heaviest drags on trade there. Automakers are providing support for the second straight session, though. France's CAC has fallen to a 1.0% loss amid widespread weakness, which has spared only a few names in the 40-member index. Financial issues like Societe Generale and Credit Agricole are hurting the CAC, but Alcatel-Lucent (ALU 1.60, -0.10) is currently in the worst shape. As for Britain's FTSE, it is presently off by a modest 0.3%, but strength is very limited. United Utilities and BP Plc (BP 44.51, +0.37) are among the better performers, but Next Plc and Fresnillo Plc, both down in excess of 3%, are in the worst shape.

Japan's Nikkei scored a 1.2% gain in its first session after an extended holiday weekend. Automakers like Toyota (TM 67.78, +0.00) and Nissan (NSANY 18.32, +0.00) were leaders in the move; the pair is expected to post North American monthly sales results along with a bevy of other automakers today. Hong Kong's Hang Seng retreated to a 0.8% loss after performing well in the prior session. Materials plays were among the primary culprits behind the move lower. Mainland China's Shanghai Composite suffered a 1.4% loss as financial shares faltered and broad market sentiment was soured by Premier Wen Jiabo, who issued cautious commentary on the country's economic outlook.

Note: all ticker quotes reflect premarket prices.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -4.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -5.60. Yesterday the stock market booked its best percentage gain in two weeks, but a more tepid tone is present in trade this morning. The reluctance to offer a follow-through bid comes as many major market averages abroad display weakness and the euro retreats against the greenback after it had rallied hard in the prior session. Early reports cite renewed concerns about financial conditions in the corners of the eurozone as the primary underpinning for the pullback. Today's calendar is light; it features monthly factory orders figures at 10:00 AM ET. Automakers will pepper the day with their monthly sales results.

06:19 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -1.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.10.

06:19 am : Nikkei...8560.11...+104.80...+1.20%. Hang Seng...18727.31...-150.10...-0.80%.

06:19 am : FTSE...5701.85...+1.90...0.00. DAX...6137.74...-28.80...-0.50%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

Phone: +1.708.572.4885
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