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 Post subject: January 3rd Tuesday 2012 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +16.10
PostPosted: Tue Jan 03, 2012 11:46 pm 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)

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click on the above image to view today's performance verification

Trade Performance for Today: +16.10 points or $1610 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, all trades were posted real-time in the free #FuturesTrades chat room. Today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs provides details (e.g. time, price, contract size) about each one of my trades from entry to exit along with price action commentary as the trade traversed...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=100&t=1105.

To join our free chat room...registration instructions located at a different forum @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=630

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=148&t=1341

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Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/IMF actions or any important global economic events that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables (key market events) causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that results in swing points and strong continuation price actions. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for my technical analysis. Just as important, these summaries becomes my archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past...something I can not get from my broker statements alone.

U.S. Stocks Advance on Signs of Manufacturing Growth

Jan. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Bloomberg's Deborah Kostroun reports on the performance of the U.S. equity market today. U.S. stocks climbed, sending the Dow Jones Industrial Average to the highest level since July, amid signs that manufacturing output is increasing from China to Australia and America.

Stocks Off To A Rockin' Start In 2012

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click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- The Dow closed at a fresh two-year high Monday, getting the new year off to a strong start, after manufacturing and construction data stoked optimism about the economy.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) rose 93 points, or 0.8%, closing at 11,670.8 -- its highest level since August 2008.

Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) was the biggest gainer on the blue-chip index, leading financial shares higher. Its shares surged more than 6% after the bank announced a $3 billion mortgage settlement with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac earlier in the day.

Meanwhile, the S&P 500 (SPX) rose 14 points, or 1.1%; and the Nasdaq (COMP) added 39 points, or 1.5%.

While the economy has a long road to recovery, investors are bullish about the month ahead.

"Over the long term, January has usually been a strong month for stock performance, although the last two Januarys have been terrible," said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer with Harris Private Bank in Chicago. "This is one January where I'm hopeful we're back to our historical pattern again."

* Stocks: New year, same old risks

Stocks ended a roller coaster year with a lackluster showing Friday, but all three major indexes logged double-digit percentage gains for the year. The Dow Jones industrial average finished 2010 up 11%, the S&P 500 climbed 13% and the Nasdaq rose 17%.

Economy: Traders mulled over an economic report showing the manufacturing industry expanded for the 17th straight month in December.

The Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index for December edged up to 57 in December, up from 56.6 in November. The index was roughly in line with economists' expectations for 57.3, with any number above 50 indicating growth in the sector.

Construction spending data also came in after the opening bell -- showing a 0.4% rise in November, following a 0.7% rise in October. Economists were looking for an increase of 0.2%.

* A hiring boom in 2011. Really.

Meanwhile, the most closely watched report of the week is the government's reading on the labor market, due Friday. Economists expect employers boosted payrolls by 132,000 last month, following a 39,000 gain in November.

Companies: Bank of America announced Monday that it is taking a charge for faulty mortgages sold to Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. Bank of America expects to take a provision of about $3 billion related to the loans and an impairment charge of $2 billion to fourth-quarter results. The bank has made cash payments of about $1.3 billion to both Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae.

Shares of Barnes & Noble (BKS, Fortune 500) jumped 9%, after the bookseller said its same-store holiday sales rose 9.7% -- helped by demand for its Nook e-reader.

* Video - BofA sparks rally

Late Sunday, the New York Times reported Goldman Sachs (GS, Fortune 500) and an anonymous Russian investor have invested $500 million in Facebook. The deal values the social networking giant at $50 billion -- a valuation higher than CNNMoney parent Time Warner (TWX, Fortune 500), as well as other major media companies. Shares of Goldman Sachs jumped 2.9%.

Dollar General Corp. (DG, Fortune 500) shares fell 0.1%, after the retailer announced plans to create 6,000 new jobs in fiscal 2011, as the company opens 625 new stores throughout the country.

Apple Inc (AAPL, Fortune 500) also started the year off on the right foot, with its market value surpassing $300 billion for the first time ever. Shares of Apple rose 2.2%.

World markets: European stocks closed their trading sessions higher. France's CAC 40 rose 2.3% and Germany's DAX gained 1.1%. Britain's market was closed.

Most Asian markets were closed Monday. Tokyo and Shanghai were dark, while the Hang Seng in Hong Kong finished 1.7% higher.

Currencies and commodities: The dollar gained against the euro, the Japanese yen and the British pound.

Oil for February delivery rose 17 cents to settle at $91.55 a barrel.

Gold futures for February delivery gained $1.50 to settle at a record-high close of $1,422.90 an ounce.

Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury fell Monday, pushing the yield up to 3.34% from 3.3% Friday.

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Market Update

4:30 pm : Stocks started 2012 on a strong note by scoring its best single-session percentage move in two weeks. The effort took the stock market to a two-month closing high.

A lack of corporate news and domestic data ahead of the open left many market participants to take their cues from foreign averages. Buying abroad was backed by a manufacturing reading from China that suggested activity began to expand after it had contracted in the prior month. India also reported its best manufacturing reading in six months. Manufacturing data from Europe also proved relatively encouraging. Recent manufacturing activity in the United Kingdom made a modest contraction, but to a lesser extent than had been anticipated. A reading on eurozone manufacturing activity was more in-line with expectations.

An advance by the euro also proved beneficial to stocks. By session's end the euro was sporting a 0.8% lead against the greenback. Stocks took little time to sprint higher following the toll of the opening bell.

Collective gains remained strong, on the order of 2%, following the release of the December ISM Manufacturing Index, which improved to 53.9 from 52.7 in November. That exceeded expectations for a reading of 53.4.

Construction spending for November also proved supportive of early gains. It increased by 1.2%, which bested the 0.5% increase that had been generally expected after a downwardly revised 0.2% decline during October.

Financial and materials stocks, the two worst performing sectors of 2011, led early gains, but the pair lacked the influence to take the S&P 500 past resistance at its multi-month closing high of 1285. From there stocks drifted lower before they made a modest attempt to reclaim gains.

Minutes from the most recent FOMC meeting failed to have any real influence on action since they offered no new insight. The minutes indicated that domestic economic activity expanded moderately despite some apparent slowing in the growth of foreign economies and ongoing financial difficulties in Europe. Although members of the FOMC generally continue to believe that the pace economic activity will pick up in 2012 and 2013, a number of members indicated that current and prospective conditions could warrant additional policy accommodation.

Stocks were unable to return to session highs, but the major averages still settled with strong gains. Participants were uninterested in defensive-oriented issues, however. As such, both the telecom and consumer staples sectors settled only fractionally above the flat line while utilities lagged the only loss of any sector. In the first session of 2012 utilities tumbled almost 2% for a poor follow up to 2011; by climbing close to 15% last year utilities were the best performing sector of the year.

Commodities also benefited from a positive bias, which took the CRB Commodity Index 2.6% higher. That made for its best single-session percentage move in more than three months. Oil was a strong influence; it climbed more than 4% to settle pit trade only a few cents shy of $103 per barrel. In addition to a weaker dollar, oil's climb came in conjunction with aggressive rhetoric from Iran regarding its occupation of shipping lanes and the presence of the U.S. ships there.

Advancing Sectors: Materials +3.0%, Financials +2.8%, Energy +2.6%, Industrials +2.1%, Tech +1.7%, Health Care +1.4%, Consumer Discretionary +0.9%, Telecom +0.1%
Unchanged: Consumer Staples
Declining Sectors: Utilities -1.7%DJ30 +179.82 NASDAQ +43.57 NQ100 +1.9% R2K +1.5% SP400 +1.0% SP500 +19.46 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1921/1.66 bln/693 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2351/851 mln/695

3:30 pm : There was a broad based rally in commodities today, aided by strength in global equity markets and weakness in the dollar (or corresponding strength in the euro). Gold futures rallied 2.1% to close at $1600.50 per ounce, while silver futures surged 5.9% to settle at $29.57 per ounce. Copper futures partook in the rally as well, posting gains of 2.8% to finish at $3.53 per pound.

Crude oil futures posted gains of 4.2% to settle at $102.96. Aided by the continued saber-rattling in Iran and the rally in equities, crude futures put in session highs at $103.13, its best levels since Nov 17, and closed just shy of those levels. Natural gas finished just above the unchanged mark at $3.00 per MMBtu. In morning trade, nat gas priced dipped to a fresh 28 month low at $2.94. They managed to rebound off those lows to recoup their losses.DJ30 +204.69 NASDAQ +44.99 SP500 +23.00 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1873/1.3 bln/710 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2381/589.1 mln/723

3:00 pm : Stocks are steadily working their way higher, but they have yet to return to the heights that they set in the first hour of action.

Financials and materials stocks continue to lead the way. The two cyclical sectors have outperformed for virtually the entire session and are both boasting gains in excess of 3%. Energy stocks aren't too far behind, however; they've collectively climbed to a 2.9% gain as oil and gas exploration and equipment plays, drillers, and transporters respond to a strong jump in oil prices back above $100 per barrel. DJ30 +226.07 NASDAQ +50.23 SP500 +23.62 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1910/1.15 bln/680 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2420/500 mln/610

2:30 pm : Among the more notable takeaways from the minutes of the most recent FOMC meeting, domestic economic activity expanded moderately despite some apparent slowing in the growth of foreign economies and ongoing financial difficulties in Europe. Members of the FOMC generally continue to believe that the pace economic activity will pick up in 2012 and 2013, but a number of members indicated that current and prospective conditions could warrant additional policy accommodation.DJ30 +209.15 NASDAQ +44.98 SP500 +21.21 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1920/1.06 bln/670 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2405/460 mln/625

2:00 pm : The euro has extended its advance against the greenback so that it now trades at $1.307 for a 0.9% gain. The euro's climb coincides with efforts by stocks to retrace their descent from session highs. However, stocks still have a ways to go before they can re-test session highs.

Minutes from the most recent FOMC meeting were just posted. Market participants are still processing the verbiage of the comments by FOMC members, rather than making any sort of immediate or knee-jerk reaction. DJ30 +202.19 NASDAQ +44.05 SP500 +20.57 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1860/985 mln/715 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2310/430 mln/700

1:30 pm : Stocks appear to have stabilized after spending about 90 minutes making a gradual descent. The major equity averages have yet to reclaim the gains that they forfeited, though.

Commodities continue to sport heady gains. Strength in that space has the CRB Commodity Index up 2.6%, which makes for its best single-session percentage move since a 2.7% climb more than three months ago. Oil has been a primary driver of the move; it is up 3.6% to $102.35 per barrel, which puts it back near its seven-month high. DJ30 +187.32 NASDAQ +38.46 SP500 +18.53 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1870/920 mln/690 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2335/405 mln/660

1:00 pm : Stocks sprinted ahead to strong gains in the early going. The move was broad based and underpinned by a stronger euro, which currently leads the dollar by 0.8%, and renewed buying interest abroad following a handful of encouraging foreign manufacturing reports. Moreover, domestic manufacturing activity for December proved stronger than what had been expected.

Resistance capped the stock market's climb, though. Once the S&P 500 came in contact with the 1285 line, which stands as its multi-month closing high, stocks set adrift into a sideways crawl. They have since drifted down to their lowest levels since the opening minutes of trade.

Broad market strength may be waning, but financials and materials stocks continue to boast enviable gains well in excess of 2%. The two cyclical sectors represent today's top performers, although they actually booked the two worst performances for any major sector in 2011, suffering annual losses of about 18% and 12%, respectively. In contrast, defensive-oriented utilities have lagged all session and are currently down more than 1%. As a group, utilities climbed close to 15% in 2011; they were the best performing sector of the year. DJ30 +173.92 NASDAQ +36.95 SP500 +17.96 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1885/825 mln/660 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2400/365 mln/590

12:30 pm : Stocks continue to slowly drift downward from their session highs. There is no clear catalyst or apparent cause for the pared gains, but it comes after the S&P 500 failed to overcome resistance at its multi-month closing high of 1285.

The dollar has been in weak shape all day. It was last quoted with a 0.7% loss against a collection of competing currencies, but most of its weakness is owed to a stronger euro and stronger sterling pound, which were recently quoted with respective gains of 0.8% and 0.9% against the greenback. DJ30 +200.60 NASDAQ +44.12 SP500 +20.87 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1950/730 mln/585 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2450/330 mln/535

12:00 pm : Stocks have drifted out of their recent trading range, but they continue to sport impressive gains.

Although buying interest has been relatively broad for the entire session, more recent action has put financials and materials stocks out in front of the broad market -- both sectors currently boast gains on the order of 3%. Bank stocks and diversified financial services stocks have been leaders in the financial space while the materials space has been largely led by metals and mining issues.

Interestingly, financials and materials were the two worst performing sectors of 2011. The two sectors suffered annual losses of about 18% and 12%, respectively. DJ30 +225.08 NASDAQ +48.58 SP500 +22.86 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2000/635 mln/505 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2520/295 mln/450

11:30 am : A broadly positive tone continues to permeate trade. That has helped give advancing issues a 6-to-1 edge over decliners on the NYSE. As a corollary, advancing share volume currently outnumbers declining share volume by about 7-to-1 on the Big Board.DJ30 +237.68 NASDAQ +54.38 SP500 +25.25 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2015/535 mln/460 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2545/260 mln/410

11:00 am : The S&P 500 is up about 2%, which puts the broad market measure at its best level since the end of October. However, the October closing high of about 1285, which is also a five-month closing high, has created some resistance against the stock market's advance. That has left stocks to drift along session highs.

Although the stock market's climb currently appears to be capped, Treasuries aren't attracting any new support. That has kept the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note stuck at 1.95% after it had been at an eight-day low of about 1.87% at the end of last week. DJ30 +245.33 NASDAQ +58.26 SP500 +25.62 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2025/420 mln/420 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2550/215 mln/385

10:35 am : Commodities are off to a good start this morning on overall broad market strength following the better-than-expected economic data out of Europe and China, along with weakness in the dollar index. Natural gas (-1.2%) and coffee futures (-1.6%) are the only commodities in the red.

Crude oil futures have been showing strong gains all morning on the drivers listed above, as well as more Iran threats. Iran is now threatening to attack a previously removed aircraft carrier if that ship should return to the Persian Gulf. The energy component extended gains in recent activity and hit a new session high of $102.81/barrel. Crude is now trading 4% higher at $102.73/barrel.

While the energy sector is showing sharp gains (crude +4%, heating oil +3.5%, RBOB gasoline +2.8%), natural gas is 1.2% lower this morning at $2.98/MMBtu.

Precious metals are also showing solid gains this morning. Gold broke above the $1600 level a short while ago, hitting a new session high of $1602/oz. Silver is up about twice as much as gold and just hit the $29.00/oz level. Currently, gold is up 2.1% at $1600.10/oz, while silver is up 1.1% at $29.06/oz.DJ30 +242.75 NASDAQ +56.41 SP500 +25.09 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2041/345 mln/391 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2530/203 mln/390

10:00 am : Stocks are holding their gains in the wake of a couple of doses of data. Both proved better than expected.

The ISM Manufacturing Index improved from 52.7 in November to 53.9 in December. It had been expected, on average, to improve to 53.4 by economists polled by Briefing.com.

Construction spending increased by 1.2% during November after a downwardly revised 0.2% decline during October. An increase of 0.5% had been generally expected for November. DJ30 +242.65 NASDAQ +56.19 SP500 +23.85 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2040/120 mln/255 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2525/98 mln/250

09:45 am : Strong, broad-based buying has stocks up sharply in the first session of 2012. In fact, as things currently stand, the stock market is sporting its biggest percentage gain in exactly two weeks.

Utilities are absent from the climb, though. The defensive-oriented sector, which was the best performing group of 2011 by climbing close to 15% in price alone, is down 0.2% this morning. DJ30 +229.09 NASDAQ +55.87 SP500 +23.29 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +22.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +40.80. The stock market logged a lackluster finish for 2011 by slipping to end the year just about where it started, but buyers have been back to work in the hours ahead of the first session of 2012. Their efforts have been bolstered by a stronger euro, which is now at a morning high with a 0.7% gain against the greenback, and renewed strength among several major foreign equity averages, many of which have responded to some relatively encouraging manufacturing data. Domestic manufacturing data will be posted at 10:00 AM ET, alongside monthly construction numbers. Also on the docket are the minutes from the most recent FOMC meeting; they are scheduled for 2:00 PM ET.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +20.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +39.10. Commodities are on the climb this morning, such that the CRB Index is up 1.2%. Among its more influential components, oil was last quoted with a 2.5% gain at $101.35 per barrel. Its advance comes in conjunction with aggressive rhetoric from Iran regarding its occupation of shipping lanes and the presence of the U.S. ships there. Natural gas prices are flat at $3.02 per MMBtu. Precious metals are also performing well. Specifically, gold prices have gained 1.5% to trade at $1590 per ounce, while silver is sporting a 2.8% gain at $28.69 per ounce. Their upward push has been made easier by a decline in the dollar, which is currently down 0.5% against a collection of competing currencies.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +20.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +36.30. Buying in Europe has lifted the EuroStoxx 50 to a 0.6% gain. Meanwhile, Germany's DAX is sporting a 0.7% gain amid broad-based buying. Automakers BMW, Daimler, and Volkswagen are leading the way. Deutsche Boerse and Deutsche Lufthansa are among the handful of names that have had difficulty finding support in the latest round of action. Automakers are also providing support to France's CAC, but their strength has been more than offset by weakness among financials, which have dragged down the CAC to a 0.8% loss. Britain's FTSE is presently sporting a 1.1% gain, led by metals and mining plays like Rio Tinto (RIO 51.35, +2.43), BHP Billiton (BHP 73.96, +3.33), Xstrata, and Anglo American. Recent manufacturing activity in the United Kingdom reportedly made a modest contraction, but to a lesser extent than had been anticipated. A reading on eurozone manufacturing activity was more in-line with expectations.

Overnight action in Asia was generally strong, resulting in heady gains for many of the region's major equity averages. Buying interest was largely bolstered by a manufacturing reading that suggested activity began to expand after it had contracted in the prior month. India also reported its best manufacturing reading in six months. India's Sensex scored a 2.7% gain in its latest round of trade. Financials helped lead the way. Hong Kong's Hang Seng was also among the region's better performing indices; it scored a 2.4% gain with help from energy players after it was announced that oil prices would be allowed to be determined by market forces. PetroChina (PTR 129.51, +5.20) was among the top performers. Both Japan's Nikkei and mainland China's Shanghai Composite were closed in observance of New Year's.

Note: all ticker quotes reflect premarket prices.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +19.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +37.60. Stocks were flat for 2011, but a positive posture to premarket trade this morning suggests that they are poised for a sharply higher start to the new year as market participants return from the long holiday weekend (U.S. markets were closed Monday in observance of New Year's Day). Renewed strength comes with help from markets abroad -- several of Asia's major averages rallied in overnight action and trade has been generally upbeat in Europe. Strengthened sentiment in Europe has also helped prop up the euro, which was last quoted at $1.302 for a 0.5% gain.

The mixture of a weaker dollar and positive market sentiment has helped buying interest extend to commodities. Crude oil futures prices are up 2.3% to $101.10 per barrel prior to the open of pit trade. Oil's climb also comes in conjunction with continued concerns about Iran's recent threats to disrupt the transportation of the energy component.

On deck for today is the ISM Manufacturing Index. It will be posted at 10:00 AM ET. Monthly construction spending numbers will be unveiled at the same time. At 2:00 PM ET participants get their hands on the minutes from the most recent FOMC meeting.

06:30 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +24.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +45.60.

06:30 am : Nikkei...Holiday......... Hang Seng...18877.41...+443.00...+2.40%.

06:30 am : FTSE...5639.80...+67.50...+1.20%. DAX...6145.50...+70.00...+1.20%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

Phone: +1.708.572.4885
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