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 Post subject: January 31st Tuesday 2012 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +20.20
PostPosted: Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:50 pm 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)

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click on the above image to view today's performance verification

Price Action Trade Performance for Today: +20.20 points or $2020 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, all trades were posted real-time in the free #FuturesTrades chat room. Today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs provides details (e.g. time, price, contract size) about each one of my trades from entry to exit along with price action commentary as the trade traversed...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=100&t=1128.

To join our free chat room...registration instructions located at a different forum @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=630

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my price action trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our price action trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=148&t=1341

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Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/IMF actions or any important global economic events that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables (key market events) causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that results in swing points and strong continuation price actions. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for my technical analysis. Just as important, these summaries becomes my archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past...something I can not get from my broker statements alone.

Dow Caps Longest Losing Streak Since August on Economy

Jan. 31 (Bloomberg) -- Bloomberg's Deborah Kostroun reports on the performance of the U.S. equity market today. U.S. stocks fell for a fourth day, the longest streak for the Dow Jones Industrial Average since August, as reports showed consumer confidence trailed economists' projections and business activity cooled.

S&P, Dow Wrap Up Best January in 21st Century

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click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- January offered up an apology to discouraged investors.

Unlike 2011, when markets spiked and sunk several hundred points each day but ultimately closed out the year relatively flat, all three indexes mostly climbed higher throughout the month with occasional dips.

The Nasdaq climbed 8% in January and the S&P 500 and Dow each added 3.4% and 4.4%. Absent, so far in 2012, are the heart wrenching daily drops and pops in stocks.

Even with a choppy trading day Tuesday, it was the best January for the S&P and Dow since 1997 and since 2001 for the Nasdaq.

* Facebook: Bankers trade fees for bragging rights

U.S. stocks traded in a narrow range Tuesday, after worse-than-expected U.S. housing and manufacturing data tempered the modest enthusiasm over Europe's progress on a new fiscal pact.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) slid 21 points, or 0.2%.The S&P 500 (SPX) shed 0.6 points, or 0.1%. The Nasdaq added 2 points, or or 0.1%.

Investors parsed through a mixed bag of earnings from Exxon Mobil (XOM, Fortune 500), UPS (UPS, Fortune 500), Pfizer (PFE, Fortune 500) and Mattell (MAT, Fortune 500). But weak reads on Midwest manufacturing and home prices were the main drivers pushing the market down from an initial boost.

Stocks got an early boost after European Union leaders agreed Monday to strengthen a financial firewall and most members of the 27-nation group will sign a new fiscal compact. But the first summit of the year ended without new solutions for the debt crisis in Greece.

Without a deal with private-sector creditors, the country jeopardizes its access to bailout funds, and might not be able to make a €14 billion debt payment that's due March 20.

"There's positive news coming out of Europe, but it's still very tenuous with Greece," said Jeffrey Phillips, chief investment officer of Rehmann Financial. "Every time we see something positive there, we seem to see it reverse in four or five days."

* EU leaders back fiscal pact, bigger firewall

U.S. stocks recovered most of their lost ground Monday afternoon.

World markets: European stocks closed posting solid gains. Britain's FTSE 100 (UKX) added 0.8%, the DAX (DAX) in Germany gained 1.1% and France's CAC 40 (CAC40) climbed 1.5%.

Meanwhile, Asian markets ended modestly higher. The Shanghai Composite (SHCOMP) ticked up 0.3%, the Hang Seng (HSI) in Hong Kong added 1.1% and Japan's Nikkei (N225) rose 0.1%.

Economy: The Case-Shiller 20-city home price index showed home prices dropped 1.3% month-over-month in November.

Later in the day, the January edition of the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index is set for release, as is the Congressional Budget Office's 10-year budget and economic outlook.

The Consumer Confidence Index is expected to hit 67 in January, up from 64.5 in the month prior, according to a survey of analysts by Briefing.com.

Companies: RadioShack (RSH, Fortune 500) shares plunged 29%, after the electronics retailer warned late Monday that its fourth quarter earnings will fall far short of expectations.

Exxon Mobil shares dropped 2%, after the oil giant reported its quarterly earnings climbed to $9.4 billion on revenue of $121.6 billion.

Mattel shares closed up 1.3%, after the toymaker beat Wall Street estimates on quarterly earnings and raised its annual dividend 35%. Worldwide sales of Barbie dolls, Hot Wheels and American Girl toys posted solid gains, although revenue overall fell short of analysts' expectations.

Mattel's top competitor, Hasbro (HAS), will release its corporate results Monday.

* Video - Betting on $2,000 Gold

Pfizer was hurt in the fourth quarter by the loss of its patent for Lipitor, a drug for treating high cholesterol. The drug maker beat Wall Street expectations on earnings and revenue, but its shares slide 1.3%

UPS shares dropped 0.9%, even though the courier beat forecasts on earnings but fell short on revenue. In a statement, Kurt Kuehn, UPS's chief financial officer, said the company expects 2012 to bring "mixed economic growth around the world."

Online retailer Amazon (AMZN, Fortune 500) reported results after the bell Tuesday, missing analysts' estimates on revenues but beating profit expectations. Shares dropped nearly 9% in trading after the close.

Currencies and commodities: The dollar fell against the euro and the British pound, but gained versus the Japanese yen.

Oil for March delivery dropped 37 cents to $98.39 a barrel.

Gold futures for April delivery rose $7.40 to $1,740.40 an ounce.

Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury moved higher, pushing the yield down to 1.80% from 1.84% late Monday.

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Market Update

4:30 pm : Stocks failed to fully recover from an early slide that left the major equity averages to finish the session in mixed fashion.

Although there are still no official stories detailing Greece's efforts to restructure debt terms with creditors, presumed progress inspired buying in Europe this morning. The positive bias was also helped along by lingering enthusiasm related to a commitment yesterday by Europe's officials to join future bailout efforts. The euro initially traded higher in conjunction, but by session's end it had retreated to a loss of about 0.5% against the greenback.

Early action was largely guided by trade abroad as participants looked for reasons to buy following three consecutive losses for the S&P 500. However, stocks slid quickly off of their morning perch upon the release of the latest Chicago PMI. The reading fell to 60.2 in January from 62.5 in the prior month. That disappointed many market participants since the consensus forecast called for a reading of 62.8. Shortly thereafter sellers redoubled their efforts in response to a Consumer Confidence Index for January that fell to 61.1 from 64.8 in the prior month, clashing with expectations for an improvement to 67.0.

During its descent the S&P 500 paused at the neutral line, but later broke below that point to spend the next few hours slogging along in negative territory. Stocks eventually worked their way back to the flat line, but the broad market was unable to muster enough momentum to make an actual advance on the day.

Financials had been a source of strength, but the broad market had difficulty rallying around it. Investment banks and brokerages led the financial sector to a 0.4% gain. Diversified and regional bank stocks lagged, leaving the KBW Bank Index to finish flat.

Strength among financials was largely offset by weakness in the energy sector, which settled with a 0.9% loss. Exxon Mobil (XOM 83.74, -1.75) was a heavy drag as many investors responded negatively to the integrated oil giant's in-line earnings results.

Pfizer (PFE 21.40, -0.18) and Eli Lilly (LLY 39.74, +0.49) were among the more widely held names that were also in focus following their earnings announcements. Both bested what Wall Street had expected, but shares of the two pharmaceutical players traded in opposition. Biotech outfit Biogen Idec (BIIB 117.92, +1.34) benefited from a strong bid on the back of a better-than-expected earnings report of its own.

Share volume on the NYSE finally broke above 1.0 billion shares, suggesting a pickup in participation. Share volume has been paltry for the past couple of months, keeping average daily volume well below the 1.0 billion mark.

Mixed action among stocks was met by some with increased interest in Treasuries. The effort was enough to take the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note down to a new monthly low of 1.80%. Meanwhile, the yield on the 5-year Note fell to a new record low of slightly less than 0.72%.

Advancing Sectors: Financials +0.4%, Utilities +0.4%, Telecom +0.2%, Tech +0.2%
Unchanged: Materials, Consumer Staples, Health Care
Declining Sectors: Consumer Discretionary -0.1%, Industrials -0.4%, Energy -0.9%DJ30 -20.81 NASDAQ +1.90 NQ100 +0.1% R2K +0.1% SP400 -0.1% SP500 -0.61 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1343/1.76 bln/1179 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1745/1.03 bln/1229

3:30 pm : The CRB Index fell another 0.5% today. In only two trading days it is off by 1.7% week to date.

Natural gas proved to be a heavy drag. Prices plummeted 7.7% to $2.50 per MMBtu. Oil prices also dropped; the energy component had been up above $101 per barrel this morning, but ultimately settled at $98.46 per barrel for a 0.3% loss.

Precious metals put on a positive performance, however. Gold gained 0.4% to close pit trade at $1737.20 per ounce, while silver settled with a 0.8% gain at $33.26 per ounce. Those gains persisted in the face of a stronger dollar, which overcame an early loss to sport a modest gain against a basket of major foreign currencies. It was last quoted with a 0.2% gain against that basket. DJ30 -20.02 NASDAQ +2.62 SP500 -0.26 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1330/1.24 bln/1175 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1685/505 mln/1285

3:00 pm : The S&P 500 continues to dance along the neutral line as the session's end begins to draw near. With just 60 minutes of trading left, the broad market measure is at risk of suffering its fourth straight loss. Granted, that streak hasn't been too severe; stocks have fallen for a cumulative loss of 1% over the past three sessions.

Participants are preparing for the next round of earnings results. Among the more widely held names, Broadcom (BCRM 34.50, +0.05) and Seagate Tech (STX 21.05, +0.16) are scheduled to report after the close. Tomorrow morning brings the latest from Aetna (AET 43.63, -0.39) and Whirlpool (WHR 53.69, -0.06). DJ30 -32.69 NASDAQ +0.38 SP500 -1.31 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1395/1.17 bln/1090 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1730/475 mln/1215

2:30 pm : Stocks recently encountered a mild flurry of selling pressure, but renewed buying interest has the S&P 500 back within striking distance of the flat line and the Nasdaq into positive territory. Both are at their best level of the afternoon.

Financials, though still a source of support, have been slow to extend their climb. That has left the sector to trade with a 0.5% gain near the afternoon highs that they set about an hour ago. Meanwhile, energy stocks, still down close to 1%, continue to offset the financial sector's strength. Their stalemate has made it hard for the broad market to make a concerted push into positive territory. DJ30 -21.68 NASDAQ +4.06 SP500 -0.36 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1295/1.08 bln/1170 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1605/435 mln/1325

2:00 pm : Stocks have been drifting lower after the Nasdaq failed at the flat line -- for the second straight session. Intel (INTC 26.41, -0.33) and Oracle (ORCL 28.20, -0.40), which is at a session low, have both weighed heavily on the Nasdaq in recent trade.

The euro is up from its session low, but still down a sizable 0.5% against the greenback. The euro had actually sported a modest gain this morning, when market participants were responding to strength in Europe and stories suggesting that Greece may be progressing in its efforts to strike a compromise with its creditors. Buying in the euro was also likely bolstered by news that the majority of Europe's officials have agreed to a bailout plan for future use.

1:30 pm : The Nasdaq is now at the neutral line. A key question is whether or not it will sustain its advance or succumb to renewed selling. During the prior session the Nasdaq staged a steady climb up from its session low, but ultimately lost momentum as it approached the flat line.DJ30 -35.80 NASDAQ +0.66 SP500 -1.12 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1230/910 mln/1210 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1610/370 mln/1315

1:00 pm : An early slide has left the major equity averages to trade in negative territory. Although pressure isn't too severe, the action has stocks on track for their fourth straight loss.

Market participants bid stocks higher at the open, encouraged by renewed strength abroad and rumors of progress regarding Greece's efforts to compromise with its creditors. However, early gains were quickly dashed as market particpants responded to a disappointing Chicago PMI and an unexpected drop in the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index.

Stocks have spent the past couple of hours slogging along in negative territory with varied losses. Pressure has been most intense among energy plays, although the sector has managed to slash its loss. At its low, the energy sector was down more than 1%, but it is now off by 0.6% for the session. That said, Exxon Mobil (XOM 83.88, -1.61) remains a source of weakness following its in-line earnings results.

Upside earnings surprises from pharmaceutical plays Pfizer (PFE 21.29, -0.29) and Eli Lilly (LLY 39.75, +0.50) have failed to bolster buying interest in the broad market. U.S. Steel (X 30.03, +1.30) is actually outperforming the pair, despite coming short of the consensus earnings estimate.

Financials have attracted some buying interest, but the highly influential sector has been slow to convince the broad market to rally around it. Financials are currently up 0.4%. Investment banks and brokerage plays have been the primary drivers behind the sector's climb. DJ30 -49.27 NASDAQ -4.94 SP500 -2.93 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1145/825 mln/1255 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1540/340 mln/1350

12:30 pm : Share volume has been paltry for the past few months, but here's a look at the price action displayed by some of today's most active names by share volume. Among tech and telecom plays, Sprint (S 2.13, -0.03) is the most actively traded name today, followed by the likes of Nokia (NOK 5.00, -0.05), and Intel (INTC 26.41, -0.33). General Electric (GE 18.80, -0.10) is seeing some of the highest volume in the industrials space, while Pfizer (PFE 21.27, -0.31) is in focus among health care plays following its quarterly report. As for natural resource plays, U.S. Steel (X 29.80, +1.07) and Exxon Mobil (XOM 83.67, -1.82) are seeing plenty of action following their earnings announcements. Bank of America (BAC 7.13, +0.06) is atop the list of most actively traded names regardless of sector or industry.

As for today's top performers by percent gained, Parexel (PRXL 24.25, +3.79) is a high flyer following its latest quarterly report. National Bank of Greece (NBG 3.63, +0.40) is also performing well as market participants speculate over progress made by Greece's officials in their negotiations with creditors. At the opposite end of the spectrum, RadioShack (RSH 7.18, -3.05) is down dramatically after the company issued downside guidance. DJ30 -46.05 NASDAQ -4.47 SP500 -2.33 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1040/755 mln/1340 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1370/310 mln/1500

12:00 pm : Stocks are chopping along near session lows, unable to attract the support necessary to generate a rebound. With stocks mired in negative territory, the S&P 500 is on pace for its fourth straight loss. In that time the broad market measure has fallen only slightly more than 1%.DJ30 -69.74 NASDAQ -9.29 SP500 -4.58 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1000/685 mln/1390 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1355/285 mln/1515

11:30 am : Pronounced selling pressure against energy stocks has sunk the sector for a 1.2% loss. The slide comes as shares of integrated oil giant and Dow component Exxon Mobil (XOM 83.61, -1.88) drop to a one-month low following in-line earnings results released ahead of the open.

A reversal by oil prices certainly hasn't helped the energy sector. Oil prices had pushed above $101 per barrel earlier this morning, but the energy component has since fallen to $99.70 per barrel, which makes for a fractional loss. DJ30 -64.10 NASDAQ -8.39 SP500 -4.57 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 950/540 mln/1400 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1390/232 mln/1455

11:00 am : Steady selling has sent stocks into negative territory to trade with modest losses at new session lows. Following a decidedly positive start that saw all 10 major sectors stage gains, weakness has become widespread.

With the broad market in the red for the fourth straight session, buying interest in Treasuries has continued to take yields lower. Such demand has sent the yield on the 5-year Note to a record low beneath 0.72%. Meanwhile, the benchmark 10-year Note's yield now stands at 1.83%. DJ30 -40.94 NASDAQ -7.36 SP500 -2.76 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1055/425 mln/1240 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1515/190 mln/1310

10:40 am : The dollar index is trading lower this morning, which has been giving a boost to commodities.

In the energy space, Feb crude oil has been in positive territory all morning and rallied as higher as $101.29. Crude has since pulled back and is now up 1.6% at $100.40/barrel. Feb natural gas is getting hit hard this morning and just hit a new session low of $2.52 and is now down 6.8% at $2.53/MMbtu.

In precious metals, Feb gold and March silver are trading higher this morning on the currently weakness in the dollar index. Gold was higher overnight and gained steam when pit trading began and ran to a session high of $1747.70. Silver hit its own session high of $34.13 around the same time gold did, but sold off following that high and almost fell all the way back to the unchanged line. Gold is currently 0.7% higher at $1743.00/oz, while silver is up 0.8% at $33.79/oz.DJ30 +4.09 NASDAQ +4.48 SP500 +1.28 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1148/400 mln/1134 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1639/182 mln/1179

10:00 am : Stocks stabilized shortly after the release of a disappointing Chicago PMI reading, but selling has resumed with the release of the Consumer Confidence Index for January. The Index fell to 61.1 from 64.8, but had been widely expected to improve to 67.0.

Amid back-to-back doses of disappointing data, the euro has also surrendered all of its morning gain against the greenback. In fact, the currency now trails the dollar by about 0.1%.

With strength now limited among stocks, the broad market is at a new morning low. DJ30 +16.80 NASDAQ +4.79 SP500 +1.57 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1620/82 mln/495 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2310/65 mln/375

09:45 am : In stark contrast to the prior session's start, which saw the stock market quickly slump to a loss of about 1%, action this morning opened with stocks sporting strong gains. However, a recent flurry of selling has forced stocks to surrender a chunk of those gains.

The recent fit of selling began in the minutes that immediately preceded the Chicago PMI reading for January. The report came in at 60.2, which is less than the 62.8 that had been widely expected, and down from the 62.5 that was posted for the prior month. DJ30 +32.09 NASDAQ +10.24 SP500 +4.73 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +6.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +14.00. Stock futures suggest that the major equity averages will start today's session in positive territory. Following three straight losses for the S&P 500 the bid has been helped by renewed buying abroad. Improved sentiment overseas comes in conjunction with speculation over possible progress by Greece in its efforts to compromise with creditors, and restore stronger financial and economic conditions after many European officials reached an agreement on future bailout funds for the eurozone. The news has also helped the euro trade higher; it currently leads the greenback by about 0.3%. Also, earnings have been generally upbeat, featuring plenty of upside surprises to the latest lot of reports. Economic data hasn't been all that consequential, however.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +5.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +11.80. Action in the commodity complex has turned positive since the prior session. That has the CRB Index up 0.6% following its loss yesterday. Among its more closely tracked components, gold prices are up 0.8% to $1748 per ounce, while silver is trading hands at $33.80 per ounce, which makes of a 0.8% gain. In the energy complex, oil prices are up 1.8% to $100.55 per barrel in the opening minutes of pit trade. However, natural gas prices have dropped a sharp 5.4% to $2.56 per MMBtu.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +5.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +10.50. Stock futures continue to trade with moderate strength. The morning's first dose of data has had little impact on sentiment. The Employment Cost Index increased by 0.4% during the fourth quarter, just as had been broadly expected. That marks an incremental increase over the 0.3% increase posted in the prior quarter. Still on the economic calendar for today are the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (9:00 AM ET), the latest Chicago PMI (9:45 AM ET), and the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index (10:00 AM ET).

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +5.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +10.50. Renewed buying abroad and a bounce by the euro have brought about an improved mood among morning traders.

Complementing the positive tone, earnings reports ahead of the open have been generally upbeat, thus far featuring better-than-expected results from Pfizer (PFE 21.79, +0.21), Eli Lilly (LLY 40.50, +1.25), and UPS (UPS 77.30, +1.15). U.S. Steel (X 29.33, +0.60) came short of what Wall Street had widely expected of it while Exxon Mobil (XOM 85.00, -0.49) matched the consensus earnings estimate. Note: ticker quotes reflect premarket prices.

Economic news scheduled for today is broad, but unlikely to have a significant impact on trade today. The bottom of the hour brings latest Employment Cost Index. It is followed by the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index at 9:00 AM ET. The latest Chicago PMI will be posted at 9:45 AM ET. The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index is scheduled for release at 10:00 AM ET.

06:30 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +7.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +15.50.

06:30 am : Nikkei...8802.51...+9.50...+0.10%. Hang Seng...20390.49...+230.10...+1.10%.

06:30 am : FTSE...5726.19...+55.10...+1.00%. DAX...6510.28...+65.60...+1.00%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

Phone: +1.708.572.4885
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