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 Post subject: December 29th Thursday 2011 Emini TF ($TF_F) points -12.60
PostPosted: Fri Dec 30, 2011 2:22 am 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)

Attachment:
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click on the above image to view today's performance verification

Trade Performance for Today: -12.60 points or ($1260) dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, all trades were posted real-time in the free #FuturesTrades chat room. Today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs provides details (e.g. time, price, contract size) about each one of my trades from entry to exit along with price action commentary as the trade traversed...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=98&t=1101.

To join our free chat room...registration instructions located at a different forum @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=630

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=146&t=1312

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Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/IMF actions or any important global economic events that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables (key market events) causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that results in swing points and strong continuation price actions. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for my technical analysis. Just as important, these summaries becomes my archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past...something I can not get from my broker statements alone.

U.S. Stocks Rise on Economy Weathering Europe Crisis

Dec. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Bloomberg's Deborah Kostroun reports on the performance of the U.S. equity market today. Stocks rose, restoring the 2011 gain in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, as data signaled the world's largest economy is weathering Europe's debt crisis.

Stocks Rebound: Dow Up 136 Points, S&P Back In Black

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click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- U.S. stocks rose Thursday in a thinly-traded session as investors focused on signs of strength in the economy before calling it a year.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) rose 136 points, or 1.1%, to end at 12,287. The S&P 500 (SPX) added 13 points, or 1.1%, to 1,263. The Nasdaq (COMP) gained 24 points, or 0.9%, to 2,614.

Thursday's rebound put the S&P 500 back on track for a modest 0.4% gain in 2011, after the broad market index fell sharply Wednesday. The Dow is currently up 6.1% for the year, while the Nasdaq is set for a 1.5% loss.

Stocks were supported by reports on housing, manufacturing and employment that raised hopes about the U.S. economy.

"Today's last round of major U.S. reports before the weekend New Year's celebration provided a decidedly positive spin to the outlook," wrote Michael Englund, chief economist at Action Economics, in a note to clients.

Traders said low volume, typical of the holiday week, has led to more pronounced swings, and some of the moves are coming from year-end portfolio rebalancing rather than convictions over the trajectory of the market or particular stocks.

* Are you a markets whiz?

"We expect light trading through today and tomorrow, and any noise can create wild swings," said Doug Cote, chief market strategist at ING Investment Management.

Looking ahead, many investors expect stocks to move higher in the first few months of 2012.

The U.S. economy has shown signs of improvement recently, with economists forecasting a 3.3% increase in gross domestic product in the final three months of 2011. In addition, corporate profits are expected to rise in the fourth quarter, continuing an 11-month streak.

But the outlook for next year remains clouded by the debt crisis in Europe, which continues to weigh on demand for risk assets such as stocks.

On Thursday, an auction of Italian 10-year bonds, which have seen yields continue to flirt with the 7% danger zone, provided muted results. While yields were reported below prior levels, demand was short.

The euro fell to a 17-month low and analysts warn the currency could fall even further in 2012.

"Europe is a powder keg and could explode at any time, and likely will when we are the most complacent," said Keith Springer, president of Springer Financial Advisors in Sacramento.

* Video - Where to invest in 2012

Economy: Jobless claims rose 15,000 to 381,000 in the latest week, according to the U.S. Labor Department. Analysts surveyed by Briefing.com had expected 368,000 claims.

But the figure remained below 400,000, giving investors hope that the labor market will strengthen in the new year.

The National Association of Realtors index of pending home sales, which measures signed sales contracts but not closed sales, rose 4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.42 million in November from 4.25 million in October.

Economist had expected the a 0.6% increase in pending home sales.

The report boosted shares of homebuilders, including Pulte (PHM, Fortune 500), Masco (MAS, Fortune 500), Lennar (LEN) and DR Horton (DHI, Fortune 500).

An index of manufacturing activity in the Chicago area eased slightly in December but held near a 7-month high, according to the Institute for Supply Management.

Companies: Amazon (AMZN, Fortune 500) eased after analysts at Goldman Sachs (GS, Fortune 500) suggested that the online retailer's sales growth for the holiday period may fall short of expectations.

Shares of Yahoo (YHOO, Fortune 500) gained 2.7% after reports that China's Alibaba Group has hired a lobbying firm to prepare a bid for Yahoo.

BP (BP) edged higher despite reports that employees could face criminal charges in relation to last year's Gulf of Mexico oil spill.

World markets: European stocks closed higher. Britain's FTSE 100 (UKX) added 0.8%, the DAX (DAX) in Germany rose 0.9% and France's CAC 40 (CAC40) rose 1.1%.

Asian markets ended mixed. The Shanghai Composite (SHCOMP) edged up 0.2%, the Hang Seng (HSI) in Hong Kong fell 0.7% and Japan's Nikkei (N225) lost 0.3%.

* Betting on the dollar in 2012

Currencies and commodities: The dollar gained strength against the euro and the British pound but fell versus the Japanese yen.

Oil for February delivery rose 31 cents to $99.05 a barrel.

Gold futures for February delivery fell $23.20 to $1,540.90 an ounce.

Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury rose, with the yield easing to 1.89% from late Wednesday.

Image

Market Update

4:30 pm : Although the effort encountered resistance, the stock market was able to build on an early gain and overcome resistance to put itself back in positive territory for the year.

Early market participants provided a modest bid in the face of muddled action abroad and a new 11-month low for the euro following a mixed debt auction in Italy. The euro eventually worked its way higher and, in turn, bolstered broad market buying interest; the currency climbed out of the red to end the trading day with a 0.4% gain against the greenback. The euro is still down more than 3% this year, though.

Financials helped boost the broad market by providing leadership. The sector fully recovered from their prior session slump by bouncing to a 1.6% gain. Banks proved to be a primary driver of that move. However, bank stocks remain the reason for the sector's poor performance this year -- the KBW Bank Index is down 23% this year while the broader financial sector is off by 18% year to date.

Defensive-oriented stocks have generally outperformed in 2011. Year to date, utilities stocks are up more than 15%, consumer staples stocks are collectively up 11%, and the health care sector is up more than 10%.

All 10 major sectors scored strong gains today, though. Despite such broad-based strength, the S&P 500 had a hard time moving more than a couple of points above the 1258 zone, which contains its 2011 starting point and its 200-day moving average. Still, stocks never retreated and ultimately prevailed in overcoming resistance. The lack of share volume likely helped the move -- with only a half billion shares traded on the NYSE share volume was only about half of its average daily volume. Nonetheless, the S&P 500 is now fractionally positive for the year.

Economic data had little sway with the broad market, but shares of homebuilders were helped by a surprisingly strong pending home sales report. Pending home sales for November increased by 7.3%, which is greater than the 0.6% increase that had been generally expected among economists polled by Briefing.com, but less than the 10.4% increase recorded in the prior month.

The Chicago PMI for December also exceeded expectations. Although it eased down to 62.5 from 62.6 in the prior month, it was better than the reading of 60.1 that had been generally expected.

Weekly initial jobless claims jumped to 381,000 from the multi-month low of 366,000 posted for the previous week. Economists polled by Briefing.com had expected, on average that initial claims would be closer to 368,000.

The commodities complex failed to benefit from the positive tone displayed in the stock market and the dollar's decline from a multi-month high. That left the CRB Index to suffer a 0.2% loss. That said, several commodities were able to recover from new or near multi-month lows. The CRB is positioned for a year-to-date loss of about 8.5%.

Advancing Sectors: Financials +1.6%, Industrials +1.3%, Energy +1.2%, Materials +1.1%, Consumer Discretionary +1.1%, Health Care +1.0%, Tech +0.9%, Telecom +0.9%, Utilities +0.8%, Consumer Staples +0.7%
Declining Sectors: (None)DJ30 +135.63 NASDAQ +23.76 NQ100 +0.8% R2K +1.3% SP400 +1.4% SP500 +13.38 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1888/1.03 bln/724 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2381/531 mln/637

3:35 pm : In the energy sector, Feb crude oil continued to trend higher in the afternoon, off its session low of $99.26 hit in the morning session. Crude ultimately moved back to the unchanged mark during the afternoon session. By the end of the session, crude ended 0.2% higher at $99.68/barrel.

Jan natural gas basically trended lower until the afternoon session began. From there, the energy component remained in a tight range for the rest of the day and finished the session unchanged.

In the metals space, after extending yesterday's losses during the morning session today, Feb gold traded in a narrow range before gaining steam in the afternoon and ended 1.4% lower at $1540.80/oz. Gold remained higher in electronic trade and moved as high as $1551.60.

March silver continued to extend losses this morning as well. After hitting a session low of $26.15 in early morning activity, silver steadily trended higher for the rest of its floor trading session and recovered its losses, closing 0.3% higher at $27.36/oz. March copper ended higher by 2 cents at $3.38.DJ30 +119.43 NASDAQ +21.22 SP500 +11.50 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1843/786 mln/745 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2272/323 mln/715

3:00 pm : Stocks roll into the final hour at session highs with solid gains. The positive tone has been present since the opening bell.

Initial strength came as market participants provided a tepid bid of support following the prior session's slide. Buying interest was further bolstered by a bounce by the euro, which has been able to work its way back from a multi-month low to a modest gain. All the while financials, one of the most influential sectors, has been providing leadership. DJ30 +108.65 NASDAQ +17.67 SP500 +9.96 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1770/675 mln/800 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2220/272 mln/745

2:30 pm : Only a quarter of a billion shares have been traded on the NYSE so far today. Such a sluggish pace could make this one of the year's thinnest sessions of trade. Average daily share volume on the Big Board has been about 1.0 billion shares. The lack of participation is owed to holiday and year-end vacationing.DJ30 +113.30 NASDAQ +18.30 SP500 +10.25 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1770/630 mln/800 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2215/255 mln/730

2:00 pm : The broad market continues to sport a strong gain for the day, but it remains flat for the year as it drifts sideways in afternoon trade.

Generally, defensive-oriented stocks have been this year's best performers -- this year utilities stocks are up about 15%, consumer staples stocks are collectively up about 11%, and the health care sector is up 10%. Financials, down 18% this year, are the worst performers of 2011, followed by materials stocks, which are down about 12% this year. Industrial stocks, down about 3% this year, represent the only other sector that is currently positioned for an annual loss. DJ30 +108.38 NASDAQ +18.43 SP500 +9.94 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1750/585 mln/810 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2180/235 mln/755

1:30 pm : The broad market continues to struggle to push past the area of its 200-day moving average and the point where it is year-to-date positive -- both just below 1260 for the S&P 500. That said, the stock market hasn't yet broken down in the face of resistance there. Renewed strength in the euro, which is up 0.3% against the greenback, continues to help prop up stocks after the currency had been down in the early going.DJ30 +104.7 NASDAQ +17.72 SP500 +9.65 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1790/530 mln/760 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2210/210 mln/700

1:00 pm : The stock market slid yesterday, but buyers have stepped back in to provide a broad-based lift that has the S&P 500 narrowly above its 200-day moving average and essentially flat for the year.

Stocks were bid higher in the early going as participants responded to an advance by the euro, which has overcome an early loss that had it at a new 11-month low to trade with a gain of nearly 0.3% against the greenback. The euro's initial weakness came amid a mixed debt auction from Italy.

Economic data before the open was limited to an initial Jobless claims count that climbed more than expected to 381,000. Shortly after the open participants were dealt a better-than-expected Chicago PMI reading of 62.5 for December and stronger-than-expected pending home sales numbers that showed a 7.3% monthly increase for November. The latter dose of data has combined with broad market support to give homebuilders a collective gain of about 2.5%.

Although off of their session highs, financials continue to sport an enviable gain in excess of 1%. Strength among bank stocks have helped keep the financial sector out in front of the broad market all session. Despite the strength of their performance this session, financials are still the worst performing sector of the year -- they are headed for an annual loss of 18%.

Utilities make up the best performing sector of 2011. They are up 15% year to date, but only a relatively tame 0.5% today.

Even amid a lack of share volume the S&P 500 has had difficulty extending its advance beyond the 1260 line, or more than a couple of points past its 200-day moving average. That has the broad market measure sitting flat for the year. DJ30 +110.50 NASDAQ +20.54 SP500 +10.56 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1750/480 mln/780 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2185/195 mln/735

12:30 pm : Treasuries have ticked higher in recent trade. That has helped take the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note back near 1.90%. For comparison, the United Kingdom's 10-year Gilt is currently yielding 1.96% while Germany's 10-year Bund is yielding 1.85%. Japan's 10-year issue is yielding a flat 1.00%.DJ30 +93.93 NASDAQ +15.43 SP500 +8.69 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1735/430 mln/750 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2200/170 mln/690

12:00 pm : Stocks have extended their rebound, but the S&P 500 has been unable to push past its session high, which was set around the 1260 line and just above the broad market measure's 200-day moving average. However, the Nasdaq has managed to stretch to a new session high after it had trailed the other headline averages in the early going. The Nasdaq is still headed for an annual loss of almost 2%, while the S&P 500 is essentially flat this year.DJ30 +106.98 NASDAQ +19.50 SP500 +10.66 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1745/670 mln/710 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2175/155 mln/680

11:30 am : Stocks recently made a sudden pullback, but they have managed to rebound and reclaim a portion of the gains that were forfeited.

Buying support comes in conjunction with the euro's efforts to trade higher. The currency had been down in the early going, but it has since poked into positive territory so that it now leads the dollar by about 0.1%. The euro is still down 3.5% this year, though. DJ30 +87.15 NASDAQ +14.33 SP500 +8.66 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1660/315 mln/750 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2060/130 mln/765

11:00 am : Financials have extended their climb to a gain of 1.5%, which makes them this session's strongest performing sector by a considerable margin.

Up about 0.9%, energy stocks make up the next best performing sector. However, that could be challenged because of declining oil prices, which have fallen deeper into negative territory so that they now trade with a 0.9% loss at $98.50 per barrel following weekly inventory data that showed a build of 3.9 million barrels when a draw of 2.5 million barrels had been broadly expected. DJ30 +90.41 NASDAQ +14.07 SP500 +9.37 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1690/230 mln/655 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2150/100 mln/630

10:35 am : Natural gas prices were down about 0.3% in the minutes that preceded the latest weekly inventory report, which was posted only moments ago. Inventories showed a draw of 81 bcf, which is on par with the consensus call for a draw of 80 bcf. Natural gas prices are now at $3.11 per MMBtu for a 1.3% loss.

Oil prices were in positive territory at the start of pit trade, but the energy component now trades with a 0.4% loss at $98.95 per barrel. Weekly oil inventory numbers, which are typically released on Wednesdays, will be posted at 11:00 AM ET because of the holiday-shortened weekend.

Precious metals have been under pressure all morning. The selling has taken gold prices down to a new five-month low near $1224 per ounce. The yellow metal was last quoted with a 1.7% loss at $1537 per ounce. As for silver, it returned to its 2011 low beneath $26.20 per ounce, but now trades at $26.85 per ounce for a 1.4% loss. DJ30 +88.55 NASDAQ +12.53 SP500 +9.02 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1610/145 mln/640 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2075/75 mln/340

10:00 am : Pending home sales data for November was just posted. The numbers showed a monthly increase of 7.3%, which is less than the 10.4% increase recorded in the prior month, but greater than the 0.6% increase that had been generally expected among economists polled by Briefing.com. The news has helped bolster buying interest among shares of homebuilders.

Of the major sectors, financials are displaying strong leadership in the opening minutes of action. The sector has already jumped out to a gain of nearly 1%. Banks are among the better performers of the bunch.

Tech stocks are having a harder time garnering buying interest. As a group, tech stocks are up only 0.1%. Their relative weakness has hampered the tech-rich Nasdaq, which is lagging its counterparts. DJ30 +73.38 NASDAQ +4.69 SP500 +6.19 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1395/42 mln/615 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1860/35 mln/695

09:45 am : The Chicago PMI for December eased down to 62.5 from 62.6 in the prior month. A reading of 60.1 had been generally expected.

Stocks haven't really reacted to the report. That has kept them in positive territory with modest gains.

Meanwhile, the euro has managed to move up to the neutral line. That has caused the greenback to give up some of its morning gain so that it now leads a collection of competing currencies by only 0.1%. DJ30 +65.77 NASDAQ +7.99 SP500 +6.16 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +3.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.70. A modest bid has kept broad market stock futures dancing narrowly above the neutral line this morning. It comes after the major equity averages dropped alongside the euro during the prior session. Although the mood among market participants appears to have stabilized, the euro continues to contend with sellers. As such, the currency slid to a new 11-month low earlier this morning. News flow has been limited, leaving traders to focus most of their attention on the action of the euro and the major averages abroad. Data has been limited to an uninspiring weekly initial jobless claims report. Still to come, though, is the latest Chicago PMI (9:45 AM ET) and pending home sales report (10:00 AM ET).

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +3.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +2.70. The energy complex is mixed this morning. Specifically, natural gas prices are down 0.4% to $3.14 per MMBtu ahead of weekly inventory data at 10:30 AM ET, whereas crude oil prices are up 0.2% to $99.55 per barrel ahead of their weekly inventory numbers at 11:00 AM ET. Precious metals are under pressure, such that silver is down 2.4% to $26.55 per ounce and gold is off by 1.9% at $1535 per ounce. In the backdrop, the dollar is trading with a modest gain of 0.2% against a collection of competing currencies. Earlier this morning the greenback set a new 11-month high.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +3.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -0.10. Broad market stock futures continue to trade with a slight edge over fair value following a rather underwhelming weekly jobless claims count. Initial Jobless claims for the week ended December 24 totaled 381,000. That contrasts with the consensus call for a tally of 368,000, which economists polled by Briefing.com had generally expected to follow the upwardly revised multi-month low of 366,000 that was set in the prior week. Continuing claims proved unsurprising at 3.60 million, which is up from the 3.57 million continuing claims that had been set in the previous week.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +4.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +2.70. Stock futures are up slightly despite mixed trade abroad amid lackluster results from a recent debt auction from Italy. The euro is also down again. Its latest leg lower has it sitting at its worst level in 11 months and down nearly 4% this year. Weekly initial jobless claims are due at the bottom of the hour. The latest Chicago PMI follows at 9:45 AM ET. Last on the list of economic items is the latest monthly pending home sales report at 10:00 AM ET. Today's calendar also includes weekly natural gas inventory data at 10:30 AM ET followed by weekly oil inventory numbers at 11:00 AM ET.

06:27 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +3.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +0.70.

06:27 am : Nikkei...8398.89...-24.70...-0.30%. Hang Seng...18397.92...-120.80...-0.70%.

06:27 am : FTSE...5518.58...+11.20...+0.20%. DAX...5792.06...+20.80...+0.40%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

Phone: +1.708.572.4885
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