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 Post subject: December 28th Wednesday 2011 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +3.80
PostPosted: Thu Dec 29, 2011 12:03 am 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)

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click on the above image to view today's performance verification

Trade Performance for Today: +3.80 points or $380 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, all trades were posted real-time in the free #FuturesTrades chat room. Today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs provides details (e.g. time, price, contract size) about each one of my trades from entry to exit along with price action commentary as the trade traversed...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=98&t=1100.

To join our free chat room...registration instructions located at a different forum @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=630

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=146&t=1312

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Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/IMF actions or any important global economic events that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables (key market events) causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that results in swing points and strong continuation price actions. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for my technical analysis. Just as important, these summaries becomes my archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past...something I can not get from my broker statements alone.

U.S. Stocks Declined, Halting A Five-Day Advance

Dec. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Bloomberg's Deborah Kostroun reports on the performance of the U.S. equity market today. U.S. stocks declined, halting a five-day advance in the S&P 500 Index, as the European Central Bank's balance sheet increased to a record after a surge of bank lending to stem the region's debt crisis.

S&P Moved Into Negative Territory for 2011

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click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Stocks closed down more than 1% Wednesday, as investors continued to fret over how Europe could solve its debt troubles in 2012. Selling intensified ahead of the close.

On a light trading week, investors have few other economic or corporate indicators to mull before 2011 ends.

Still, traders and analysts said the low volumes led to more pronounced swings, and some of the moves are coming from year-end portfolio rebalancing rather than convictions over the trajectory of all stocks or a particular stock.

"I don't know what to read into today," said Peter Boockvar, equity strategist at Miller Tabak + Co. "There's nothing going on in the U.S. market. It's a holiday week."

The S&P fell back into negative territory for the year.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) closed down 140 points, or 1.1%. The S&P 500 (SPX) slid 16 points, or 1.3%. The Nasdaq (COMP) lost 35 points, or 1.3% .

Dragging down the technology sector Wednesday were RIMM, (RIMM) Netflix (NFLX) and Fossil (FOSL). The Nasdaq is down roughly 2% for 2011.

* Video - Pimco: 'Global game of hot potato'

Despite Wednesday's sell-off, the Dow remains up 5% for 2011.

Some traders still hope to close the year poised for a January bounce. To get there, some say 1260 would be the magic number for the S&P to clear on Friday.

"If we could clear 1,260 by the end of the week, we could see a strong rally in January," said Joe Bell, senior equity analyst at Schaeffer's Investment Research.

If the S&P clears 1258 by year-end, it would mark the third straight year of gains. The index remains about 11% below where it closed at the end of 2007.

Still, after closing at 1250 Wednesday, stocks need to commence a substantial two-day rally to get there.

U.S. stocks have been buoyed recently by signs of improvement in the US economy, including declines in weekly claims for unemployment benefits and an uptick in new home construction.

But investors say the market remains vulnerable as the debt crisis in Europe continues to threaten the outlook for the global economy and financial markets.

One bright spot for Europe on Wednesday was an Italian auction of 3- and 24-month bonds that drew strong demand and yields half as high as the previous month's auctions. The results helped lift European equities and banks.

Investors will be more closely watching Thursday's auction of Italian 10-year bonds, which have seen yields continue to flirt with the 7% danger zone. That level is worrisome because it flashed the first warning signs for Ireland, Portugal and Greece, which all eventually needed bailouts.

U.S. stocks ended a listless session little changed Tuesday as investors weighed reports on consumer confidence and home prices.

World markets: Europe's markets finished lower. Britain's FTSE 100 (UKX) eased 0.1%, the DAX (DAX) in Germany slumped 2% and France's CAC 40 (CAC40) lost 1%

* Economists a bit more optimistic

Asian markets ended mixed. The Shanghai Composite (SHCOMP) rose 0.2%, the Hang Seng (HSI) in Hong Kong fell 0.6% and Japan's Nikkei (N225) lost 0.2%.

Currencies and commodities: Oil prices eased off the previous sessions spike, slipping $1.64 to $99.70 a barrel. On Tuesday, crude prices jumped 2% after Iran threatened to choke off the flow of oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

Gold futures for February delivery fell $31.40 to $1,564.10 an ounce.

The dollar fell against the British pound and the Japanese yen but edged higher against the euro.

Companies: Shares in the financial sector remained under pressure throughout the trading day.
Top stocks of 2011

Citigroup (C, Fortune 500), Credit Suisse (CS), Wells Fargo (WFC, Fortune 500), Morgan Stanley (MS, Fortune 500), Goldman Sachs (GS, Fortune 500) and Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) closed down between 1% and 4%.

Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury moved up sharply, with the yield falling to 1.928% from 2.01% from late Tuesday.

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Market Update

4:10 pm : Stocks finished near their worst levels of the session as renewed concerns over the situation in Europe weighed on the major averages. Today’s news that spooked investors included reports that deposits at the European Central Bank hit a record high EUR452 billion and that the central bank’s balance sheet has expanded to a record EUR2.73 trillion. The Dow finished with a loss of 140 points as all of the major averages lost at least 1.1%.

European financials were under pressure as Barclays (BCS 10.71, -0.42) and Deutsche Bank (DB 37.08, -1.59) lost 3.8% and 4.1% respectively.

Shares of Mead Johnson Nutrition (MJN 67.98, -1.10) erased early gains after headlines surfaced that the Food and Drug Administration was inspecting the company’s Michigan plant today. The stock tumbled more than 20% late last week on reports an infant’s death had been linked to the company’s Enfamil powdered formula, but rallied almost 6% during yesterday’s session after the company announced a new round of tests confirmed the safety of the product.

Casino stocks were weak after yesterday’s outperformance following the news that the U.S. Justice Department reversed a previous ruling and will now let states decide if they want to legalize internet poker. Las Vegas Sands (LVS 42.40, -1.59), Wynn Resorts (WYNN 109.22, -4.31), and MGM Resorts International (MGM 10.09, -0.33) all closed lower after rallying on yesterday’s decision.

Google (GOOG 639.70, -0.55) hit its best level in almost four years today as earlier buying ran it to a session high of $645.00. The technology giant is now trading approximately 14% off its November 2007 high of $747.24.

Utility stocks outperformed the major averages as the S&P 500 Utilities Index finished down 0.6%. The sector has been the top performer in 2011 and as recently as today was trading at its best level in 39 months. Northeast Utilities (NU 35.84, -0.01) was the best performer in the space, finishing little changed.

Treasuries saw strong gains as heavy buying dropped the 10-yr yield 10 basis points to 1.908%. An advance of 0.9% ran the dollar index above 80.50 as European worries weighed on the euro and the pound. The euro lost 135 pips to finish near 1.2935 while the pound shed 220 pips and closed at 1.5445.DJ30 -139.94 NASDAQ -35.22 SP500 -15.79 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 523/1.06 bln/2086 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 628/542.5 mln/2419

3:30 pm : The dollar index continues to trade in positive territory. In more recent trade, it moved back near its session high of 80.60, which continued to add pressure on select commodities today.

In the energy space, Feb crude oil extended its losses in the late morning and in the afternoon session, falling below the $100 mark and back to its session low about 10 minutes before pit trading ended. At the end of the day, crude lost 1.9% to $99.44/barrel.

Jan natural gas gained steam as it headed into afternoon trade, but basically trended lower from its session high of $3.14 and finished below the $3.10 area. Natural gas ended the session 3 cents lower at $3.08.

In metals, Feb gold further extended yesterday's losses and fell to its lowest level since July. The precious metal fell about $32/oz in today's activity and is 13% lower from Nov. 8 (a recent high). In today's action, gold fell 2% to $156.40. March silver fell sharply shortly after pit trading began this morning and fell 5% in today's session, pulling it down to a level not seen since January. Silver closed 5% lower at $27.28/oz. In electronic trade, silver put in a new session low of $27.03. March copper ended lower by 5 cents at $3.36.DJ30 -148.04 NASDAQ -38.12 SP500 -16.74 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 667/849 mln/2203 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 744/361 mln/2529

3:00 pm : Treasuries finished at their best levels of the session as traders rushed into the complex amid renewed worries in Europe. Just today it was released that deposits at the European Central Bank hit a record high EUR452 billion, and that the central bank’s balance sheet has expanded to a record EUR2.73 trillion. The long bond finished higher by two and a half points at 104 11/32 as the aggressive buying dropped the 30-yr yield 13 basis points to 2.904%. Elsewhere, an advance of almost one full point in the 10-yr lowered its yield 10 basis points to 1.913%. Severe flattening of the yield curve saw the 2-10-yr spread tighten to 163 basis points. DJ30 -127.90 NASDAQ -30.32 SP500 -14.24 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 569/741.2 mln/2022 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 624/316.0 mln/2415

2:30 pm : Equities have slipped back to their worst levels of the session after being unable to hold any of this afternoon's rally. All three of the major indices are currently holding losses of close to 1.1%.

Google (GOOG 640.74, +0.49) hit its best level in almost four years today as earlier buying ran it to a session high of $645.00. The technology giant is now trading approximately 14% off its November 2007 high of $747.24. Competitors Microsoft (MSFT 25.88, -0.16) and Amazon (AMZN 173.95, -2.32) are not sharing in the upside move and trade down 0.6% and 1.3% respectively. DJ30 -124.12 NASDAQ -29.03 SP500 -13.57 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 573/683.6 mln/2000 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 629/292.8 mln/2401

2:00 pm : The major averages have climbed off their worst levels of the session with all three now holding losses of 0.9%.

Shares of Mead Johnson Nutrition (MJN 67.76, -1.32) have erased earlier gains and now trade lower by roughly 2.0% after headlines surfaced that the Food and Drug Administration was inspecting the company’s Michigan plant today. The stock tumbled more than 20% late last week on reports an infant’s death had been linked to the company’s Enfamil powdered formula, but rallied almost 6% during yesterday’s session after the company announced a new round of tests confirmed the safety of its product. DJ30 -106.11 NASDAQ -24.32 SP500 -11.68 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 603/619.9 mln/1942 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 675/267.1 mln/2332

1:30 pm : Stocks continue to drift along the lows, with the S&P down more than 1.1% as the afternoon progresses. Yesterday represented the third lightest volume day of the year, and today's volume is just slightly higher than yesterday, but it's no surprise that it is extremely light again.

As we've discussed, the brunt of today's move has come alongside weakness in the euro, which saw a technical breakdown amid a thin market. The breakdown in the euro followed news that the IMF said no decision had been made about a fund-supported program for Hungary, and earlier reports that European banks increased their overnight deposits with the ECB to an all time high. Importantly, it's worth noting that Italian and Spanish debt yields declined early this morning after Italy put together a successful short-term debt auction at lower yields and stronger investor demand. However, yields moved off their lows (Italian 10-year now +2 bps at 6.91%) and tomorrow will bring additional debt auctions from Italy at longer maturities, including a 10-year bond auction, which may be seen as a better gauge of investor sentiment toward Italy's debt.

Tomorrow also brings the last of the week's economic data, with initial jobless claims data at 8:30 ET, followed by Chicago PMI at 9:45 ET and Pending Home Sales at 10:00 ET.DJ30 -121.85 NASDAQ -28.03 SP500 -13.30 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 539/569.8 mln/1982 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 614/245.1 mln/2405

1:00 pm : The major averages have come under heavy selling pressure as the euro slipped below 1.30 against the dollar. The single currency was knocked below the 1.30 threshold on word that the European Central Bank’s balance sheet rose to a record EUR2.73 trillion. The major averages are back on their worst levels of the session with all three holding losses of close to 1.2%.

European financials are under pressure as Barclays (BCS 10.81, -0.32) and Deutsche Bank (DB 36.99, -1.68) are down 2.9% and 4.3% respectively.

Casino stocks are weak after yesterday’s outperformance following the news that the U.S. Justice Department reversed a previous ruling and will now let states decide if they want to legalize internet poker. Las Vegas Sands (LVS 42.58, -1.41), Wynn Resorts (WYNN 110.58, -2.95), and MGM Resorts International (MGM 10.13, -0.29) are all lower after seeing strength on yesterday’s decision.

Shares of Cavium (CAVM 27.93, -0.55) are off their worst levels of the session but still down 1.9% after the company lowered its revenue guidance for the fourth quarter. The company now expects revenues to come in between $56 and 57 million after previous guidance was calling for revenues between $60.9 and 62.3 million.

Utilities stocks are outperforming the major averages as the S&P 500 Utilities Index trades down 0.6%. The sector has been the top performer in 2011 and as recently as today was trading at its best level in 39 months. Northeast Utilities (NU 35.97, +0.12) is the lone stock in the space trading higher while heavyweights Southern Company (SO 46.32, -0.22) and Duke Energy (DUK 21.89, -0.10) are seeing losses in-line with the rest of the sector.

Treasuries are holding near their best levels with buying dropping the 10-yr yield to a low of 1.924%. Flattening of the yield curve has tightened the 2-10-yr spread to 166.5 bps. DJ30 -137.14 NASDAQ -31.05 SP500 -14.89 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 501/527.7/2018 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 569/226.8 mln/2436

12:30 pm : Stocks continue to hover near session lows with the Dow holding a loss of roughly 120 points. All three of the major averages are down close to 1.0%.

Utility stocks are outperforming the major averages as the S&P 500 Utilities Index trades down 0.6%. The sector has been the top performer in 2011, and as recently as today was trading at its best level in 39 months. Northeast Utilities (NU 36.00, +0.15) is the lone stock in the space trading in positive territory while heavyweights Southern Company (SO 46.34, -0.20) and Duke Energy (DUK 21.89, -0.10) are seeing losses in-line with the broader S&P 500 Utilities Index. DJ30 -125.22 NASDAQ -27.79 SP500 -13.63 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 521/475.1 mln/1973 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 565/205.7 mln/2438

12:00 pm : The major averages have slumped to their worst levels of the session with today's selling dropping the S&P 500 back below its 200-day moving average. Currently, all three of the major averages trade down close to 1.1%.

Shares of Cavium (CAVM 27.86, -0.62) are off their worst levels of the session but still down 2.2% after the company lowered its revenue guidance for the fourth quarter. The company now expects revenues to come in between $56 and 57 million after previous guidance was calling for revenues between $60.9 and 62.3 million. Revenues have been weaker across both the enterprise and service provider as well as the broadband and consumer market segments, and will be further impacted by a hub transition at one of its major customers.DJ30 -130.67 NASDAQ -29.53 SP500 -14.06 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 494/412.5 mln/1978 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 547/183.3 mln/2432

11:30 am : The major averages remain near their worst levels of the session as the Nasdaq leads today’s decline with a loss of 1.0%. Slight outperformance by the Dow has it trading down 0.8%.

Casino stocks are weak today after yesterday’s outperformance following the news that the U.S. Justice Department reversed a previous ruling and will now let states decide if they want to legalize internet poker. Las Vegas Sands (LVS 42.55, -1.44), Wynn Resorts (WYNN 110.36, -3.17), and MGM Resorts International (MGM 10.13, -0.28) have all come under pressure today after seeing strength on yesterday’s decision.DJ30 -102.63 NASDAQ -25.42 SP500 -11.85 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 510/344.7 mln/1922 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 588/155.6 mln/2369

11:00 am : Treasuries continue to rally to their best levels of the session as buying has picked up after headlines crossed showing the European Central Bank’s balance sheet expanded to a record EUR2.73 trillion. Aggressive buying of the long bond has the 30-yr up more than one point and has dropped its yield seven basis points to 2.963%. A gain of half a point in the 10-yr has pushed its yield down six basis points to 1.950%. Further flattening along the yield curve has the 2-10-yr spread tighter at 167 bps. DJ30 -87.26 NASDAQ -25.29 SP500 -10.27 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 468/272.1 mln/1911 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 617/126.0 mln/2316

10:35 am : The dollar index rallied higher this morning, due to a sharp drop in the euro, which pressured commodities. In current trade, commodities continue to extend losses.

Crude oil has been in negative territory for most of today's session, likely on reports that indicate Gulf states ready to offset any potential loss of Iranian oil. Crude hit a new session low of $99.87 minutes ago and is now trading 1.3% lower at $99.99/barrel.

Gold and silver continue to trend lower this morning. Gold just hit a new session low of $1571.60/oz and is currently down 1.5% at $1571.20. Silver futures moved back to its previously hit session low of $27.40/oz as the precious metals continues to slide lower. Silver is now down 4.5% at $27.43/oz.DJ30 -80.60 NASDAQ -24.24 SP500 -10.47 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 436/216 mln/1920 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 410/104 mln/2425

10:00 am : The major averages have come under some selling pressure as the euro slipped below 1.30 against the dollar. A loss of 0.7% has the Nasdaq leading the decline while the Dow and S&P 500 slightly outperfrom with losses of 0.6%.

The single currency was knocked below the 1.30 threshold on word that the European Central Bank’s balance sheet rose to a record EUR2.73 trillion. Financials in the region are under pressure as Barclays (BCS 10.90, -0.23) and Deutsche Bank (DB 37.62, -1.05) are down 2.1% and 2.7% respectively. DJ30 -63.16 NASDAQ -19.04 SP500 -7.40 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 453/110.2 mln/1720 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 634/62.7 mln/2156

09:45 am : After seeing small gains at the open the major averages have slipped into negative territory. All three of the major indices are now trading lower by 0.2% in what is likely to be a quiet holiday trade. Materials and financials are leading the way to the downside, holding respective losses of 0.4% and 0.3%.DJ30 -16.20 NASDAQ -6.32 SP500 -2.24 NASDAQ Vol 58.6 mln NYSE Vol 43.5 mln

09:13 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +2.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +0.00. Equity futures are pointing to small gains at the open as trade is expected to remain quiet through the end of the year. U.S. news flow is extremely light today, with no earnings reports or economic data on the calendar. Two stocks to watch are Cavium (CAVM 26.83, -1.65) and Medicis Pharmaceutical Group (MRX 33.00, -0.76) which are down 5.8% and 2.3% respectively after both companies lowered guidance.

08:58 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +2.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +2.00. After a brief slide back to the flat line, the Treasury complex has run to its best levels of the session. The recent batch of buying has dropped the 10-yr yield to a session low 1.980%, but with little participation the moves are exaggerated. Buying at the back of the curve has the long bond leading the advance with a gain of 13/32 with the recent buying running it up to 102 07/32. Further flattening has taken place along the yield curve with the 2-10-yr spread tighter at 169 basis points.

08:27 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +3.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.00. Overseas markets are seeing a mixed session as Asian shares finished mostly lower while European equities are moving higher. Volumes were once again light and are expected to remain that way all week as a holiday trade crawls ahead.

European markets (FTSE +0.6%, CAC +0.5%, DAX +0.1%) are higher in afternoon trade after the solid Italian auctions provided some good news. Recently released data showed deposits at the European Central Bank are at a record EUR452 billion. Britain’s FTSE is higher by 0.6% despite the underperformance among financials. Barclay’s, Royal Bank of Scotland, and Lloyds Banking Group are the worst performers on the index, trading down between 1.2% and 1.4%. Meanwhile, France’s CAC is up 0.5% and seeing a similar trade as Credit Agricole and Societe Generale are down as much as 1.6%. Elsewhere, Germany’s DAX is seeing a small gain of 0.1% as drug maker Merck leads the way with a 1.4% advance. Financials are the weakest link with Deutsche Bank off 1.7%.

Asian markets (Nikkei -0.2%, Hang Seng -0.6%, Shanghai +0.2%) finished mostly lower on light holiday trade. Japan’s Nikkei fell 0.2% as embattled Tokyo Electric Power Company plunged 11.9% on fears the company would be nationalized by the Japanese government. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng lost 0.6% as gold miner Zijin Mining Group shed 2.3%. China’s Shanghai Composite gained 0.2% as cement companies paced the advance. Anhui Chaodong Cement rallied 4.4% after reversing from an early drop of as much as 6.1%.

07:58 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +3.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +2.00. Futures are pointing to small gains at the open as trade is expected to remain quiet throughout the week. Equity futures climbed to their best levels of the session following the solid Italian auctions that saw yields fall significantly from last auction’s levels. Despite the solid auctions, deposits at the European Central Bank are now at a record high EUR452 bln. Trade is expected to be lackluster as little news flow and an absence of data will likely produce a listless session.

06:12 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +3.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +0.80.

06:12 am : Nikkei...8423.62...-16.90...-0.20%. Hang Seng...18518.67...-110.50...-0.60%.

06:12 am : FTSE...5547.96...+35.30...+0.60%. DAX...5896.09...+6.30...+0.10%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

Phone: +1.708.572.4885
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