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 Post subject: December 23rd Friday 2011 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +11.40
PostPosted: Fri Dec 23, 2011 10:49 pm 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)

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click on the above image to view today's performance verification

Trade Performance for Today: +11.40 points or $1140 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, all trades were posted real-time in the free #FuturesTrades chat room. Today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs provides details (e.g. time, price, contract size) about each one of my trades from entry to exit along with price action commentary as the trade traversed...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=98&t=1095.

To join our free chat room...registration instructions located at a different forum @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=630

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=146&t=1312

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Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/IMF actions or any important global economic events that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables (key market events) causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that results in swing points and strong continuation price actions. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for my technical analysis. Just as important, these summaries becomes my archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past...something I can not get from my broker statements alone.

U.S. Stocks Rise on Durable Goods and Home Sales Data

Dec. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Bloomberg's Cali Carlin reports on the performance of the U.S. equity market today. U.S. stocks rose, pushing the Standard & Poor's 500 Index to a 0.6 percent yearly rally, as expansion in U.S. industrial purchases and stronger new-home sales offset weaker-than-forecast consumer spending.

S&P 500 In Positive Territory For 2011

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click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Don't call it a comeback just yet, but investors brought holiday cheer to the stock markets pushing the S&P 500 back into positive territory for 2011 and the Dow up 6% for the year.

On a light trading day ahead of the holiday weekend, investors scooped up stocks after economic reports released Friday morning continue to provide glimmers of hope for the U.S. economy with better-than-expected readings on personal spending, income and housing released Friday morning.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) added 124 points, or 1% Friday. The index is up 3.6% for the week and 6.1% for year.

The S&P 500 (SPX) rose 11 points, or 0.9% Friday, adding 3.7 for the week and 0.6% for the year. The Nasdaq (COMP) moved 19 points higher, or 0.7%, and despite moving up 2.7% this week, it's still down 1.3% this year.

"The overall message coming through is that there are tentative signs of stability coming into housing and construction and the economy overall," said Robert Tipp, chief investment strategist at Prudential Fixed Income.

Still, with light volume and limited data, stock market watchers says it's quiet on trading floors.

* What the payroll tax deal would do

"We don't anticipate any big action today," said Joe Bell, senior equity analyst at Schaeffer's Investment Research. "We won't have much data, and the volumes will be low."

Investors are watching yields on Italian 10-year bonds, which have moved up into the danger zone of 7%. Despite that, European markets closed the day up.

On Thursday, stocks finished a quiet session higher, after a stronger-than-expected reading on unemployment boosted investor optimism.

The government reported that the number of Americans filing for first-time unemployment benefits dropped to its lowest level since April 2008. There were 364,000 initial jobless claims last week, 4,000 fewer than the week prior.

Investors got more good news after Thursday's market close, as House Speaker John Boehner said that he would accept a two-month extension of the payroll tax cut, a move that ensures taxes will not increase on Jan. 1, 2012.

The source of much angst on Capitol Hill in recent weeks, economists viewed the scheduled tax increase as a significant potential drag on the economy in the first quarter of next year.

World markets: European stocks closed higher. Britain's FTSE 100 (UKX) ticked up 1%, the DAX (DAX) in Germany added 0.5% and France's CAC 40 (CAC40) gained 1%.

Asian markets ended higher, with Tokyo closed for holiday. The Shanghai Composite (SHCOMP) rose 0.9% and the Hang Seng (HSI) in Hong Kong jumped 1.4%.

* Video - Should you buy a home in 2012?

Economy: Before the opening bell, the Commerce Department reported durable goods rose 3.8% in November. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had expected durable goods to rise 2.0%.

Both personal income and personal spending rose 0.1% in November.

A Commerce Department report on new home sales showed that new home construction rose 1.6% in November compared to 1.3% in October. The figure beat expectations but still shows a relatively sluggish pace of growth in the housing sector.

Currencies and commodities: The dollar lost strength against the euro, the British pound and the Japanese yen.

Oil for February delivery rose 28 cents to $99.81 a barrel.

Gold futures for February delivery fell $1.60 to $1,606.00 an ounce.

Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury fell, pushing the yield up to 2.03% from 1.95% Thursday.

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Market Update

4:05 pm : Although the traditional "Santa Claus rally" period didn't officially start until today, Santa came early this year with a greater than 3.5% gain in equities on the week, which recoups last week's loss and then some. The S&P is now roughly flat on the year as we approach the final week of 2011.

While the action was constructive, this week was relatively quiet in terms of news flow. The week did start with a big piece of international news - the death of North Korea's dictator Kim Jong Il. That event caused initial uncertainty across Asia as his son Kim Jong Un stepped into control. However, after initial weakness on Monday, most Asian markets spent the rest of the week advancing along with their western counterparts.

After a lackluster Monday performance, markets got a substantial lift on Tuesday following encouraging German sentiment data and a better-than-expected Spanish bond auction. After Tuesday's 3% gain, stocks edged higher on Wednesday and Thursday, amid relatively light corporate news flow and generally encouraging economic data. On Thursday, initial jobless claims data, the Michigan sentiment revision and leading indicators data all beat expectations, although the revision to Q3 GDP came in below expectations. Last night, Congress agreed to a two-month extension of the payroll tax cut and unemployment benefits, temporarily lifting some domestic political uncertainty. This morning, while the Nov. durable goods data beat expectations, spending came in below expectations and excluding aircraft, the durables orders weren't as strong as the headline number. However, markets managed to see follow-through strength to end the day higher by 0.7%.

Corporate news flow was light throughout the week. Oracle's (ORCL 26.06, +0.37) disappointing earnings report sent its stock down 12% on Wednesday, while American Greetings (AM 12.97, -0.42) fell 24% in the two days following its earnings report. There were a few pieces of M&A news announced, with WCA Waste Corp (WCAA 6.62, +0.23) being acquired by Macquarie Infrastructure Partners II for $6.50 per share in cash, representing a 33% premium. Delphi Financial (DFG 44.13, +0.12) gained more than 70% after announcing it would be acquired by Tokio Marine. Finally, Akamai (AKAM 31.93, +0.30) gained 15% after announcing it would acquire privately held content delivery company Cotendo for approximately $268 million. DJ30 +124.05 NASDAQ +19.19 SP500 +11.30 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1357/946.8 mln/1175 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2047/464.4 mln/968

3:30 pm : The dollar index remained in positive territory all session today, which didn't affect commodities much.

In the energy space, crude oil remained in positive territory all session and ran as high as $100.27 during afternoon activity. Crude pulled back to the $99.50 area and finish its floor trading session under the $100 mark. Natural gas chopped around until the afternoon session, but then lost steam and began to steadily move lower. The energy component fell back to its previously hit session low of $3.11 and finished the day just above that level. The energy component finished 5 cents lower at $3.12/MMBtu.

In metals space, gold spent the majority of the day in negative territory, but displayed little volatility and traded in a narrow range in today's quiet session. Gold ended the day $3.10 lower at $1607.40/oz. Silver, on the other hand, spent most of today's session in positive territory, but sold off just as the afternoon session was beginning. The precious metal managed to stay above the $29.00 level and fell as low as $29.03. For the rest of its floor trading session, silver traded between that low and $29.17 and ended today's session 2 cents higher to $29.16/oz. March copper ended higher by 4 cents at $3.47.DJ30 +85.07 NASDAQ +13.71 SP500 +7.67 NASDAQ Adv/Vol 1227/1323 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1917/326 mln/1052

3:00 pm : Stocks continue to hold their gains as markets approach the final hour of trading for the week. The Dow remains the best performer of the major averages, currently holding a gain of 0.7%.

Shutterfly (SFLY 23.33, -1.77) is down more than 7.0% today after issuing downside guidance for the fourth quarter. The company sees fourth quarter revenues of $259-264 million versus the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $268.11 million and which is below prior guidance of $270.5-275.5 million. In addition, the company now says fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA will range from $84-88 million compared with its previous guidance of $96.3-101.1 million.DJ30 +87.08 NASDAQ +13.85 SP500 +7.81 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1312/701.6 mln/1242 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1950/300.1 mln/1036

2:30 pm : The major averages continue to trade near their best levels of the session as volume has dried up due to the holiday. The Dow remains the best performer of the major averages, trading higher by 0.8%.

The S&P 500 Utilities Index hit its best level in 39 months today as investors continue to park money in the sector because of its low volatility and high dividends. Public Service Enterprise Group (PEG 32.60, +0.45) is the best performing stock in the sector today, trading higher by 1.4%.DJ30 +88.74 NASDAQ +13.98 SP500 +7.59 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1281/648.0 mln/1255 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1920/280.8 mln/1055

2:00 pm : The major market averages meander near their best levels of the session as a light volume trade drifts towards the close. The Dow continues to lead the pack today, trading higher by 0.8%.

Shares of YUM! Brands (YUM 58.92, +0.53) are back near their all-time highs after the company announced the sale of its A&W Restaurants to A Great American Brand. Terms of the transaction were not disclosed. DJ30 +93.32 NASDAQ +16.01 SP500 +8.39 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1310/599.8 mln/1214 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1943/261.2 mln/1038

1:30 pm : The dollar index has slipped back to the flat line as a quiet session progresses towards the finish line. The index ran to a high of 80.05 in late morning trade, but some recent selling has pushed it back down to unchanged near 79.95. The euro is flat at 1.3050 as light volumes have sent most to the sidelines. The Aussie continues to hold a gain of 0.3% against the greenback with today’s buying running the hard currency back up to resistance in the 1.0160 area. Meanwhile, the pound trades down 0.3% against the dollar with today’s 55 pip loss pushing cable down to 1.5615. DJ30 +89.65 NASDAQ +13.97 SP500 +8.00 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1310/555.5 mln/1213 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1921/242.3 mln/1047

1:00 pm : The major indices continue to climb higher in afternoon trade as the Santa Claus rally extends for a fourth session. Today’s advance is led by the Dow and S&P 500 which are both trading higher by 0.8%.

Shares of Rambus (RMBS 8.36, +1.23, +1.04) are higher by 14.2% after the company announced a licensing agreement with Broadcom (BRCM 29.79, +0.02). The agreement covers the use of Rambus patented innovations in a broad range of integrated circuit products offered by Broadcom.

Mead Johnson (MJN 65.05, -3.71) is seeing further selling pressure today on fears that its Enfamil formula might be responsible for the death of an infant. Yesterday, Wal-Mart Stores announced that it was pulling the formula off its shelves while health officials investigate. The stock tumbled more than 10% during yesterday’s session after the story broke.

Flextronics (FLEX 5.96, +0.14) is higher by 2.4% after the company’s Board of Directors announced additional share repurchases.

Treasuries are lower on light volume with today’s selling running the 10-yr yield up eight basis points to 2.033%. The dollar index has fought back into positive territory and now trades near 80.00 after seeing losses throughout the overnight session. A flat trade in the euro has the single currency hovering near 1.3045.

Today’s data was mixed as durable orders and new home sales topped estimates while personal income and spending missed. PCE prices – core was in-line with its 0.1% estimate. DJ30 +92.71 NASDAQ +16.16 SP500 +8.69 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1364/512.4 mln/1144 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2013/226.2 mln/945

12:30 pm : The major averages continue to churn higher on low volume with all three trading at their best levels of the session.

Flextronics (FLEX 5.96, +0.14) is higher by 2.4% after the company's Board of Directors announced additional share repurchases. Back in July the Board announced a program of up to $200 million in share repurchases, and with yesterday's announcement roughly 43 million shares are available to be bought back under the two programs. DJ30 +89.65 NASDAQ +14.62 SP500 +8.45 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1351/455.2 mln/1136 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2028/203.7 mln/915

11:55 am : The major market averages trade at their best levels of the session as investors shrug off this morning’s mixed data. The Dow and S&P 500 lead the way with gains of 0.6% while the Nasdaq trails with an advance of 0.4%.

Shares of Mead Johnson (MJN 65.60, -3.16) are under further selling pressure today on fears that its Enfamil formula might be responsible for the death of an infant. Yesterday, Wal-Mart Stores announced that it was pulling the formula off its shelves while health officials investigate. The stock tumbled more than 10% during yesterday’s session after the story broke. DJ30 +77.31 NASDAQ +10.47 SP500 +7.47 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1224/392.5 mln/1200 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1935/180.4 mln/982

11:25 am : Treasuries are under severe selling pressure as a light volume trade has favored the bears. The complex has seen selling over the course of the session with the 10-yr yield now up eight basis points at 2.034%. The yield is now up close to 20 basis points for the week. Aggressive offering of the long bond has it trading lower by 1 20/32 at 101 04/32 which has made for a rise of 8 bps in its yield to 3.071%. Selling has swung the yield curve steeper with the 2-10-yr spread now wider at 176 bps. DJ30 +61.72 NASDAQ +7.86 SP500 +6.24 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1162/330.5 mln/1230 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1850/156.3 mln/1030

11:00 am : New home sales numbers for November were released earlier and hit an annualized rate of 315,000, which is slightly more than the rate of 313,000 that had been expected, on average, among economists polled by Briefing.com. The reading is a slight pickup from the upwardly revised pace of 310,000 that was posted in the prior month. Homebuilders have responded negatively to the news with the SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB 17.01, -0.08) trading down 0.5% near its session lows.DJ30 +41.44 NASDAQ +2.90 SP500 +4.00 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1045/270.0 mln/1299 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1711/131.0 mln/1121

10:35 am : The dollar index has trended higher over the past three hours, which really hasn't affected commodities so far this morning.

Crude oil futures have been in positive territory all session and broke through the $100 level earlier this morning. It's chopped around in a somewhat narrow range this morning, but has been trending lower over the past hour and is back near the unchanged line. Crude is currently 0.2% higher at $99.75/barrel.

Natural gas is the only energy component trading in the red this morning. After closing one cent higher yesterday following the weekly inventory data, natural gas is retreating this morning with modestly losses. The energy component is now down 0.8% at $3.14/MMBtu.

Precious metals have been mixed this morning. Gold, however, is back near the unchanged line after gaining some steam in the last hour or so. Silver has been in positive territory all session and ran as high as $29.40/oz. Silver has pulled back just modestly since hitting that session high and is now up 0.8% at $29.29/oz. Gold is down 20 cents at $1610.40/oz.DJ30 +47.95 NASDAQ +2.51 SP500 +4.07 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1010/221 mln/1271 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1722/109 mln/1029

10:00 am : The major averages continue to hold small gains in early trade with all three seeing an advance close to 0.3%.

Shares of Rambus (RMBS 8.55, +1.23) are higher by 16.8% after the company announced a licensing agreement with Broadcom (BRCM 29.73, -0.04). The agreement covers the use of Rambus patented innovations in a broad range of integrated circuit products offered by Broadcom. DJ30 +29.52 NASDAQ +8.02 SP500 +3.85 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1081/108.1 mln/1042 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1886/65.8 mln/821

09:45 am : The major market averages are holding small gains at the open as all three trade higher by 0.2%. Currently, all ten sectors in the S&P 500 are trading higher with utilities and telecom holding gains of close to 0.5% to lead the advance. DJ30 +15.59 NASDAQ +4.91 SP500 +2.17 NASDAQ Vol 65.2 mln NYSE Vol 49.3 mln

09:16 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +4.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.70. Equity futures are pointing to a modest advance at the open, piggybacking the gains of overseas action. This morning’s data was mixed and has had little impact on today’s action. Selling continues across the Treasury complex with weakness running the 10-yr yield up three basis points to 1.988%. The dollar index has pared earlier losses and now trades fractionally higher near 79.95. New home sales will be released at 10 ET. The stock market is open all day today, but the bond market closes an hour early. Finally, as a reminder, U.S. markets are closed on Monday for Christmas.

08:59 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +4.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.50.

Overseas markets have seen an upward bias today as traders remain cheerful ahead of the holiday weekend. Solid gains across most of Asia spilled over into European trade.European bourses have slipped off their best levels, but still hold solid gains in afternoon trade.

Britain’s FTSE leads the advance with a gain of 1.1% despite underperformance from financials. Lloyds Banking Group and Royal Bank of Scotland are the worst performers on the index, trading lower by 0.6% and 0.3% respectively. Energy stocks are leading the way as Tullow Oil is up 3.1% and Cairn Energy is higher by 1.9%. France’s CAC is up 0.9% in afternoon trade as energy giant Total is the top performer, currently holding a gain of 2.5%. Germany’s DAX is the worst performer among the major European bourses, but is still higher by 0.2%. Automakers are the best performing sector with Daimler, Volkswagen, and BMW climbing as much as 0.9%.

The major Asian indices finished mostly higher (Nikkei CLOSED, Hang Seng +1.4%, Shanghai +0.9%) with Japan’s Nikkei closed for the Emperor’s Birthday. Financials saw solid gains in Hong Kong as HSBC rallied 1.4%. Real estate and commodity-related names led the way in Shanghai with Gemdale Corp. jumping 3.1% and China Coal Energy adding 2.4%. Volumes were light across the region due to the holiday weekend.

08:33 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +5.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.70.

Durable goods orders for November were just released. They responded to the prior month's upwardly revised 0.5% drop by rising 3.8%, but that is still more than the 2.0% gain that many had expected. Excluding transportation related items, durable goods orders jumped by 0.3% which was in-line with expectations. Durable orders less transportation for the prior month were revised higher to reflect a 1.5% increase.

Personal spending during November increased by 0.1%, which is less than the 0.3% increase that had been broadly expected. Personal income increased by 0.1%, which misses the 0.3% increase that had been anticipated, on average, among economists polled by Briefing.com.

PCE prices – core rose 0.1% to match expectations.

07:59 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +7.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +7.00.

Equity futures are pointing to a higher open on Wall Street as traders ready for the holiday weekend. Volume is likely to be lackluster as most of the traders are already on vacation. Futures are piggybacking the solid gains in Europe where both France’s CAC and Germany’s DAX are higher by more than 1.0%.

On the corporate front, shares of Rambus (RMBS 8.33, +1.01) are higher by 16% after the company signed a leasing agreement with Broadcom (BRCM 29.77, +0.00). Eastman Kodak (EK 0.77, +0.14) is seeing an advance of 22% on news it will sell its Eastman Gelatine Corporation business to Rousselot.

Treasuries are holding small losses with the 10-yr yield up one basis point at 1.968%. A small loss has the dollar index hovering near 79.80.

At 8:30 ET, the November durable orders, personal income, personal spending and PCE prices will all be released. Then, after the open, November new home sales will be released at 10:00 ET. The stock market is open all day today, but the bond market closes an hour early. Finally, as a reminder, U.S. markets are closed on Monday for Christmas.

06:21 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +5.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +5.20.

06:21 am : Nikkei...Holiday......... Hang Seng...18629.17...+250.90...+0.90%.

06:21 am : FTSE...5499.39...+42.40...+0.80%. DAX...5880.78...+37.10...+0.50%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

Phone: +1.708.572.4885
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