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 Post subject: December 20th Tuesday 2011 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +11.90
PostPosted: Wed Dec 21, 2011 12:37 am 
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Joined: Sat Jan 10, 2009 2:06 pm
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)

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click on the above image to view today's performance verification

Trade Performance for Today: +11.90 points or $1190 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, all trades were posted real-time in the free #FuturesTrades chat room. Today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs provides details (e.g. time, price, contract size) about each one of my trades from entry to exit along with price action commentary as the trade traversed...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=98&t=1090.

To join our free chat room...registration instructions located at a different forum @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=630

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=146&t=1312

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Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/IMF actions or any important global economic events that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables (key market events) causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that results in swing points and strong continuation price actions. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for my technical analysis. Just as important, these summaries becomes my archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past...something I can not get from my broker statements alone.

U.S. Stocks Gain as Housing Data Beats Estimates

Dec. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Bloomberg's Deborah Kostroun reports on the performance of the U.S. equity market today. U.S. stocks climbed, giving the Standard & Poor's 500 Index its biggest gain of the month, as better-than-estimated housing starts added to expectations the world's largest economy will weather Europe's debt crisis.

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Market Update

4:30 pm : The risk trade was flipped back on today. That brought about a barrage of buying that drove stocks up from December closing to their best single-session gain of the month.

Stocks settled the prior session in weak fashion by closing at their lowest levels of December, but the tone of trade improved overnight with help from Europe. In contrast to the action on Monday, Europe's bourses were able to sustain strong gains, which were underpinned by strong demand and lower yields at Spain's latest debt auction. A few solid business and consumer sentiment surveys from Europe also helped bolster confidence.

Stronger sentiment across the Atlantic also spurred the euro sharply higher. It finished shy of its session high, but still booked a 0.5% gain.

Domestic stocks were quick to build on opening gains. Their ascent seemed to slow only briefly when the S&P 500 crossed its 50-day moving average and again before it passed last week's closing low. The stock market's climb was likely made easier by a lack of share volume. That said, participation did pick up into the close.

Commodities also scored strong gains, giving the CRB Index a 2.0% gain today. It hasn't made such a strong move since October. Its climb was helped by the dollar's downturn.

The combination of broad market strength and support for commodities made natural resource plays some of the session's best performers. Materials stocks and energy stocks collectively climbed close to 4%.

Financials were also leaders. The sector settled with a near 4% gain of its own, undeterred by steps proposed by the Federal Reserve to strengthen regulation and supervision of large bank holding companies or those designated to be systemically important. Many were unsurprised that the Fed would want risk-based capital and leverage requirements.

Big gains by homebuilders sent the SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB 16.79, +0.84) more than 5% higher. The group was helped by news that housing starts and building permits for November hit annualized rates of 685,000 units and 681,000 permits, respectively. Economists polled by Brieifng.com had expected housing starts to hit a pace of 627,000 units and building permits to reach a clip of 633,000 permits.

CVS Caremark (CVS 39.80, +3.24) was one of the better performing individual names. An in-line earnings outlook wasn't a big deal, but the company's decision to hike its dividend by 30% prompted a positive response.

AT&T (T 29.12, +0.38) ended its bid for Deutsche Telekom's T-Mobile USA. That decision led to a downgrade from analysts at JP Morgan, but the stock was still able to score a solid gain.

General Mills (GIS 39.27, -0.32) was one of the few stocks that failed to gain today. The stock was hurt by a disappointing quarterly report that featured an earnings miss. Nike (NKE 93.63, +0.25) managed to muster a modest gain, but the stock had a difficult time sustaining support ahead of its quarterly report.

Advancing Sectors: Energy +4.0%, Materials +3.9%, Financials +3.8%, Industrials +3.4%, Tech +3.1%, Consumer Discretionary +2.8%, Health Care +2.1%, Utilities +2.1%, Telecom +1.9%, Consumer Staples +1.9%
Declining Sectors: (None)DJ30 +337.32 NASDAQ +80.59 NQ100 +3.0% R2K +4.2% SP400 +3.5% SP500 +35.95 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2198/1.83 bln/465 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2687/933 mln/375

3:30 pm : Commodities rallied across the board today, aided by weakness in the dollar, and in some cases strength in equities. Gold futures gained 1.3% to settle at $1617.60 per ounce, while silver futures finished up 2.2% at $29.54 per ounce. Both metals closed just shy of their respective highs, at $1620.80 and $29.63.

Crude oil settled higher by 3.3% at $97.24 per barrel, aided by weakness in the dollar and a rally in equities. Geopolitical concerns surrounding an oil-worker strike in Kazakhstan also helped support prices. Natural gas finished higher by 0.6% at $3.13 per MMBtu.DJ30 +334.79 NASDAQ +78.95 SP500 +35.78 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2162/1.3 bln/487 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2688/556.0 mln/389

3:00 pm : Stocks enter the final hour of the session at their best level of the day. As things stand, the broad market is on track to book its best one-day gain of the month.

Share volume hasn't been that great, though. That suggests that underlying conviction may not be that great since there are fewer traders participating in today's move. The lack of share volume also makes it easier for stocks to make more dramatic movements, considering that the relative size of the individual bets being made are greater than they would be if a larger pool of shares were being traded. The lack of participation comes as many get an early start on their holiday vacations. DJ30 +328.05 NASDAQ +77.00 SP500 +35.10 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2160/1.12 bln/495 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2660/465 mln/365

2:30 pm : Financials are sporting gains of almost 4%, collectively. They haven't really reacted to news that the Federal Reserve proposed steps to strengthen regulation and supervision of large bank holding companies with consolidated assets equal to or greater than $50 billion or those designated to be systemically important. The designations would generally exclude savings and loan holding companies.

The proposals include risk-based capital and leverage requirements implemented in two phases that would include subjection to the Fed's capital plan rule that requires firms to develop annual capital plans, conduct stress tests, and maintain adequate capital ratios, as well as a proposal issued by the Fed to implement a risk-based capital surcharge based on the framework and methodology developed by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision.

Firms would also be subjected to annual stress tests. Credit exposure of a covered financial firm would be limited to a single counterparty as a percentage of the firm's regulatory capital.

The Fed noted that it is proposing that firms would need to comply with many of the enhanced standards a year after they are finalized. Requirements related to stress tests would take effect shortly after the rule is finalized. DJ30 +319.27 NASDAQ +75.18 SP500 +33.85 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2155/1.04 bln/500 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2660/435 mln/360

2:00 pm : Stocks are just off of session highs, but still sporting gains of almost 3%, collectively. The positive tone of trade has been present since the open.

Today's advance had a couple of pauses, however. The major equity averages took a momentary breather when the S&P 500 crossed its 50-day moving average and again when they came in contact with last week's closing low. Any kind of resistance at those levels was easily overcome. DJ30 +317.30 NASDAQ +74.31 SP500 +33.29 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2155/965 mln/490 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2655/405 mln/355

1:30 pm : Treasuries continue to get cut down. Results from a recent auction of 5-year Notes haven't helped.

The sale of 5-years saw a bid-to-cover of 2.86, dollar demand of $100.1 billion, and an indirect bidder participation rate of 50.6%. For comparison, the prior auction featured a bid-to-cover of 3.15, dollar demand of $110.3 billion, and an indirect bidder rate of 45.3%. Averaging the last six auctions gives a bid-to-cover of 2.84, dollar demand of $99.2 billion, and an indirect bidder rate of 43.0%. DJ30 +319.65 NASDAQ +77.00 SP500 +33.88 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2155/895 mln/480 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2655/380 mln/345

1:00 pm : The major equity averages settled the prior session at new December lows, but a switch in the risk trade has brought stocks rallying back. The broad market is now on pace for its strongest single-session performance of the month.

Buying interest this morning was brought about by an improved tone of trade in Europe, where the region's bourses bounced on the back of a strong debt auction by Spain and a couple of solid business and consumer sentiment surveys from the region. In contrast to the prior session, Europe's bourses were able to sustain their gains, such that the EuroStoxx 50 booked a 1.5% gain.

Although limited in quantity, data was encouraging. Housing starts and building permits for November exceeded what had been expected by hitting annualized rates of 685,000 and 681,000, respectively. The combination of strong housing starts and broad market strength has the SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB 16.73, +0.78) on pace for a 5% gain.

CVS Caremark (CVS 38.00, +1.44) has been a high flier following the reaffirmation of an in-line earnings outlook and the company's decision to hike its dividend by 30%.

Broad market support has helped AT&T (T 29.12, +0.38) overcome an analyst downgrade that followed the company's decision to end its bid for Deutsche Telekom's T-Mobile USA.

Although the tone of today's trade has been decidedly positive, General Mills (GIS 39.09, -0.50) has been unable to escape sellers. The stock's weakness follows an earnings miss. The company stood by its outlook for fiscal 2012, though.

Buying interest has spread into the commodity complex, such that the CRB Index is sporting a 2.0% gain today. It hasn't made such a strong move since October. Of course, the climb by commodities has been partly helped by a weaker dollar, which is down 0.7% against a collection of competing currencies. DJ30 +311.63 NASDAQ +75.81 SP500 +33.75 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2130/820 mln/490 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2645/345 mln/350

12:30 pm : Stocks continue to trade at session highs with heady gains. Their strength is keeping pressure on Treasuries. In fact, the benchmark 10-year Note is stuck near its session low. That has its yield back up to 1.90% after it had been only narrowly above 1.80% yesterday. The depths set by the 10-year Note yesterday marked the Note's lowest yield in more than two months. Treasuries could see some volatility with the release of results from an auction of 5-year Notes at the top of the hour.DJ30 +288.47 NASDAQ +72.02 SP500 +30.99 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2120/730 mln/490 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2625/315 mln/340

12:00 pm : Shares of CVS (CVS 39.46, +2.90) have surged to a new 52-week high on above-average volume. The move, which is one of the stock's best single-session jumps of the past few years, comes with help from broad market strength, but also because participants have responded positively to news that the company has hiked its dividend by 30% and reaffirmed its in-line earnings outlook.DJ30 +272.23 NASDAQ +70.91 SP500 +29.71 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2110/625 mln/490 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2635/280 mln/310

11:30 am : The S&P 500 is sitting at last week's closing high, catching its breath from this morning's sharp climb.

Meanwhile, the euro has pulled back from its morning high. It had been up about 1% against the greenback, but now it trades at $1.308, which makes for a gain of slightly less than 0.6%.

The dollar's effort to improve its position has taken some of the wind out of commodities. Still, the CRB Commodity Index is up 1.6% for the session.DJ30 +274.31 NASDAQ +68.42 SP500 +30.82 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2120/511 mln/325 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2640/235 mln/280

11:00 am : Stocks paused after the S&P 500 crossed over its 50-day moving average in the area of the 1230 line, but they have managed to regain their upward momentum and climb to new session highs. Heady gains today have not only offset the prior session's slide, but they are also eating into the near 3% decline that was suffered during the course of trade last week.

Natural resource plays continue to lead the effort amid broad market strength and support for commodities. That combination has both the energy sector and the materials sector sporting gains of 3.5%, which is the best single-session percentage move for either sector this month. DJ30 +260.88 NASDAQ +66.81 SP500 +29.85 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2110/400 mln/305 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2620/192 mln/260

10:35 am : The dollar index continues to trade near its session low, which is giving commodities a boost.

Crude oil futures have been in positive territory all session and just hit a new session high of $97.19/barrel. In current activity, crude is up 3.2% at $97.05/barrel. Natural gas is up only 1 cent at $3.114/MMBtu. RBOB gasoline 9+3.1%) and heating oil (+2.8%), however, are showing nice gains as well.

In the precious metals space, gold just hit a new session high of $1617.90/oz, while silver is back at its session high of $29.50/oz. Currently, gold is up 1.3% at $1616.90/z, while silver is 2.0% higher at $29.43/oz.

DJ30 +257.13 NASDAQ +64.82 SP500 +29.33 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2093/376 mln/297 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2607/185 mln/269

10:00 am : The stock market's climb has slowed, leaving stocks to catch their breath after a strong run in the opening minutes of trade. That has left the S&P 500 sitting just above its 50-day moving average, which acted as a point of upward resistance on a few occasions last week. With that in mind, many traders are watching to see if resistance resurfaces and, more importantly, if the broad market falters in the face of it.DJ30 +235.60 NASDAQ +56.50 SP500 +25.85

09:45 am : Stocks are up sharply in the opening minutes of trade. Buying has been both aggressive and broad based with more than half of the major sectors sporting gains in excess of 2%. Of them, natural resource plays are in the best shape, giving both the energy sector and materials sector a gain of 3.2%. Telecom and consumer staples stocks are lagging, but even those two sectors are sporting gains on the order of 1%.DJ30 +242.68 NASDAQ +57.16 SP500 +26.10 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +16.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +31.20. Improved sentiment in Europe has brought about a decidedly positive posture to premarket trade, such that stock futures point to a sharply higher start for today's trade. Buying interest comes after stocks logged sizable losses when they set new December closing lows in the prior session. Renewed interest in assets of greater risk has also bolstered buying interest in commodities, which are collectively up 1.5%, as measured by the CRB Commodity Index. Of course, their climb has been helped by the dollar's decline -- it now trails a basket of competing currencies by about 0.8%. Economic data has been limited to new housing starts and building permits numbers, but both exceeded what had been expected by a wide margin. Although there have been a handful of interesting announcements, corporate news has had little impact on the mood of the broad market this morning.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +17.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +32.50. A more positive tone among traders has helped take commodity prices higher after they put on a mixed performance in the prior session. The CRB Commodity Index has responded by bouncing to a 1.3% gain. A weaker dollar, which is currently down 0.8% against a collection of competing currencies, is helping support the move. Oil prices have made an especially strong bounce in early pit trade. The energy component was last quoted at $96.70 per barrel, which makes for a 2.8% gain. Natural gas prices are up a solid 1.0% to $3.13 per MMBtu. Precious metals are also faring well. Specifically, gold has gained 1.1% to trade at $1615 per ounce, while silver has ascended 1.9% to $29.42 per ounce.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +13.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +23.20. Stock futures continue to trade with strength following the day's only dose of economic data, which featured the latest monthly reading on housing starts. Housing starts hit an annualized rate of 685,000 units during November. That pace exceeds the rate of 627,000 units that had been generally expected among economists polled by Briefing.com. It also marks an increase in the prior month pace of 627,000 units. As for building permits, they climbed to a pace of 681,000 from the prior month's rate of 644,000. The consensus among economists polled by Briefing.com had pegged the rate for November at 633,000 permits.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +12.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +22.20. Europe's bourses forfeited gains in the prior session, but they've been bid back up today with help from a strong debt auction by Spain and a couple of solid surveys on business and consumer sentiment from Germany. The United Kingdom also recently reported an improved consumer confidence reading. Stronger sentiment in Europe has also given a lift to the euro, which is currently leads the greenback by 0.5%.

Strength abroad has helped improve the tone of trade stateside, such that a sharply higher start is expected to follow the prior session's pullback, which left the three major equity averages to log new December closing lows.

On the corporate front, AT&T (T 28.48, -0.26) has ended its bid for T-Mobile USA, but will still recognize an accounting charge of $4 billion in its fourth quarter. Following the announcement shares of T were downgraded by analysts at JP Morgan. General Mills (GIS 38.50, -1.09) came short of the consensus earnings estimate, but reaffirmed its outlook for fiscal 2012. CVS Caremark (CVS 38.00, +1.44) issued an in-line earnings outlook and hiked its dividend by 30%.

The calendar of events remains rather light, filled only by housing start numbers (8:30 AM ET) and results from an auction of 5-year Notes (1:00 PM ET).

Note: all ticker quotes reflect premarket prices.

06:14 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +11.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +21.50.

06:14 am : Nikkei...8336.48...+40.40...+0.50%. Hang Seng...18080.20...+10.00...+0.10%.

06:14 am : FTSE...5363.40...-1.60...0.00. DAX...5728.02...+57.30...+1.00%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

Phone: +1.708.572.4885
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