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 Post subject: December 19th Monday 2011 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +17.70
PostPosted: Tue Dec 20, 2011 6:07 am 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)

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click on the above image to view today's performance verification

Trade Performance for Today: +17.70 points or $1770 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, all trades were posted real-time in the free #FuturesTrades chat room. Today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs provides details (e.g. time, price, contract size) about each one of my trades from entry to exit along with price action commentary as the trade traversed...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=98&t=1089.

To join our free chat room...registration instructions located at a different forum @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=630

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=146&t=1312

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Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/IMF actions or any important global economic events that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables (key market events) causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that results in swing points and strong continuation price actions. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for my technical analysis. Just as important, these summaries becomes my archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past...something I can not get from my broker statements alone.

U.S. Stocks Fall on Concern Europe Is Not Taming Crisis

Dec. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Bloomberg's Deborah Kostroun reports on the performance of the U.S. equity market today. U.S. stocks slumped, following a two-day advance in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, as financial shares tumbled and concern grew that European officials were failing to make progress in taming the debt crisis.

Stocks Sell Off as banks tank

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click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- U.S. stocks closed sharply lower Monday as bank shares took a beating amid fresh concerns about the debt crisis in Europe.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) fell 100 points, or 0.8%, to end at 11,766. The S&P 500 (SPX) sank 14 points, or 1.2%, to 1,205. The Nasdaq (COMP) slid 32 points, or 1.2%, to 2,523.

Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) fell below $5 per share, its lowest level since the worst of the financial crisis in March 2009. Citigroup (C, Fortune 500), Goldman Sachs (GS, Fortune 500), JPMorgan (JPM, Fortune 500), Morgan Stanley (MS, Fortune 500) and Wells Fargo (WFC, Fortune 500) were also down sharply.

"As soon as Bank of America broke five, it took the whole market down," said David Rovelli, managing director of U.S. equity trading at Canaccord Adams. "It's still one of the biggest banks in the country."

The selling was driven by speculation that BofA and the other big U.S. banks will need to raise more capital, said Rovelli.

U.S. banks have been hit by concerns about their exposure to bonds issued by fragile governments in the eurozone. In addition, traders pointed to reports that tougher regulations on banks could come to pass sooner than expected

The European Central Bank warned that "contagion effects" have intensified as borrowing costs have risen for larger euro area governments, according to its latest Financial Stability Review.

The government debt and banking problems in the eurozone represent "systemic crisis proportions not witnessed since the collapse of Lehman Brothers three years ago," the ECB said.

Speaking to members of the European Parliament, ECB president Mario Draghi welcomed plans to increase fiscal discipline and strengthen market "backstops." But he said "tensions" in financial markets continue to cloud the outlook for the eurozone.

European finance ministers announced plans for euro area governments to contribute €150 billion into the International Monetary Fund.

The goal is to reinforce a financial "firewall" to prevent Italy and Spain from being burned by the crisis that engulfed Greece. But the amount announced Monday falls short of the €200 billion target European Union leaders agreed to earlier this month.

The United Kingdom apparently declined to contribute additional funds to the IMF. The U.K. will "define its contribution" to the anti-crisis effort early next year "in the framework of the G20," according to the statement.

Meanwhile, European finance officials continue to finalize the details of an intergovernmental pact to ensure budgetary discipline.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Il died Saturday after suffering from a heart attack, according to a state media report. The ruling Worker's Party proclaimed his youngest son, Kim Jong Un, "the great successor," indicating he would assume his father's post.

* Europe on downgrade watch

Traders said it was too soon to say how the transition could impact the stock market. "If you can find someone who knows anything about the son, I'd love to talk to them," said Peter Boockvar, chief market strategist with Miller Taback & Co.

Trading volumes were light Monday as many market players have already closed their books for the year. As a result, the major indexes are expected to be prone to dramatic swings this week.

Stocks ended Friday mixed, after a roller-coaster week in which all three indexes each lost more than 2.5%.

* Video - North Korea's fragile and dependent economy

Companies:Saudi Prince Alwaleed Bin Talal and his investment company, Kingdom Holding Company, announced a combined investment of $300 million in Twitter, a social media website.

Shares of Winn Dixie (WINN, Fortune 500) rose after the food retailer agreed to merge with Bi-Lo to create an organization of 690 grocery stores throughout the U.S. Bi-Lo will acquire the outstanding Winn Dixie shares.

Research in Motion (RIMM) shares fell slightly, after the BlackBerry maker offered a disappointing outlook for the current quarter and next year in releasing its earnings results.

Shares of Zynga (ZNGA) eased one day after the company made its public debut on the Nasdaq Friday. The maker of popular Facebook game FarmVille priced shares at $10 apiece in its initial public offering late Thursday.

* Payroll tax: Congress on vexing path

World markets: European stocks closed mostly lower. Britain's FTSE 100 (UKX) eased 0.4%, the DAX (DAX) in Germany slid 0.5% and France's CAC 40 (CAC40) closed little changed.

Asian markets ended lower, amid fears the death of North Korean leader Kim Jong Il could lead to instability on the divided Korean peninsular. The Shanghai Composite (SHCOMP) shed 0.3%, the Hang Seng (HSI) in Hong Kong dropped 1.2% and Japan's Nikkei (N225) fell 1.3%.

Currencies and commodities: The dollar gained strength against the euro, the British pound and the Japanese yen.

Oil for January delivery rose 58 cents to $94.11 a barrel.

Gold futures for February delivery fell $4.90 to $1,593.00 an ounce.

Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury rose, with the yield easing to 1.82%.

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Market Update

4:30 pm : Modest broad market gains in the early going were undermined by a weak financial sector, which tumbled more than 2% to drag the rest of the stock market to a new December low.

News flow was lacking this morning, leaving market participants with few trading cues, let alone actual catalysts. In turn, stocks took their direction from Europe's bourses, which were initially bid higher. However, support for Europe's bourses waned into their close. Soured sentiment there exacerbated selling in an already weak financial sector, which continues to wrestle with concerns about the exposure of banks and financial services firms to the precarious financial and economic conditions of Europe. News that European Finance Ministers have agreed to provide 150 billion euros to the International Monetary Fund did nothing to assuage concerns.

Financials likely suffered from some forced selling after shares of Bank of America (BAC 4.99, -0.21) broke below $5 per share to set its lowest level in more than two years. As a group, financials fell 2.3%, which is worse than what any other sector had suffered. The highly influential sector now sits at its lowest level since the end of November. Such weakness weighed heavily on broader market trade, causing the major equity averages to close at new December lows.

The dollar did little during the day, but ultimately ended the session about 0.3% for the better. Interest in the currency picked up into the close.

Treasuries continued their climb, albeit modestly. The bid came despite results from an auction of 2-year Notes that suggested demand had weakened since a series of auctions for longer-term Notes last week. The auction today drew a bid-to-cover of 3.45, dollar demand of $120.8 billion, and an indirect bidder rate of 21.6%.

Participation today was unimpressive, resulting in very little share volume. That's likely owed to the absence of trading catalysts and traders, who are beginning to leave their desks for the holiday season.

Advancing Sectors: (None)
Declining Sectors: Health Care -0.3%, Consumer Staples -0.4%, Telecom -0.7%, Utilities -0.8%, Tech -1.1%, Industrials -1.1%, Consumer Discretionary -1.2%, Energy -1.7%, Materials -1.9%, Financials -2.3%DJ30 -100.13 NASDAQ -32.19 NQ100 -1.0% R2K -1.9% SP400 -1.7% SP500 -14.31 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 569/1.55 bln/2026 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 644/775 mln/2386

3:30 pm : The CRB Commodity Index managed to maintain a modest gain during today's trade. It settled 0.3% for the better.

Among its more commonly tracked components, gold prices finished flat near $1597 per ounce, but silver slid 2.3% to $28.87 per ounce. The latter metal was weak all session.

In the energy complex, oil prices put together a 0.4% gain to close at $93.88 per barrel, but natural gas prices resumed their downward trend by falling 1.0% to close at $3.10 per MMBtu. DJ30 -110.27 NASDAQ -34.26 SP500 -15.43 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 675/1.12 bln/1880 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 730/455 mln/2275

3:00 pm : Stocks are still slogging along in negative territory with varied losses. The crawl continues with only an hour remaining in today's trade.

Share volume has been paltry today. Part of that is due to the absence of trading catalysts capable of pulling in participants from the sidelines. On the other hand, many traders are likely beginning their holiday vacations ahead of the long Christmas weekend. The latter theme is likely something that will keep share volume suppressed in coming sessions. DJ30 -45.27 NASDAQ -10.75 SP500 -5.43 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 830/1.00 bln/1710 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 890/400 mln/2090

2:30 pm : The broad market stopped its descent when it secured support at last week's intraday low. From there it began to chop its way higher, but a lack of leadership has made it difficult for stocks to gain momentum in afternoon trade. In fact, the lack of follow through has left stocks to drift lower in the latest leg of action.

Little attention has been paid to recent headlines that the European Finance Ministers have agreed to provide 150 billion euros to the International Monetary Fund. The euro continues to trail the dollar by a narrow margin -- it was last quoted with a 0.1% loss at $1.301. DJ30 -23.27 NASDAQ -10.75 SP500 -5.43 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 900/940 mln/1625 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 980/370 mln/2000

2:00 pm : The stock market's recovery path has been choppy and relatively drawn out. That has kept the broad market mired in negative territory with a modest loss.

Financials continue to be a burden on broader action. Although off of its session low, the sector is still down 1.4% as it continues to wrestle with weakness. Health care remains the only major sector that has kept itself out of negative territory today; the group is up with a 0.3% gain. DJ30 -18.39 NASDAQ -9.30 SP500 -5.11 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 885/855 mln/1640 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 865/335 mln/2090

1:30 pm : Results from an auction of 2-year Notes were released at 1:00 PM ET. In contrast to the auctions last week, demand wasn't very strong. Specifically, the auction drew a bid-to-cover of 3.45, dollar demand of $120.8 billion, and an indirect bidder rate of 21.6%. For comparison, the prior auction drew a bid-to-cover of 4.07, dollar demand of $142.5 billion, and an indirect bidder rate of 42.2%. Compiling results from the past six auctions gives an average bid-to-cover of 3.52, dollar demand of $123.3 billion, and an indirect bidder participation rate of 33.2%.DJ30 -37.65 NASDAQ -13.65 SP500 -7.86 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 905/810 mln/1585 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 900/315 mln/2055

1:00 pm : Stocks were helped higher in the early going as market participants took their cues from Europe, where the region's major bourses had displayed strength. Weakness among financials soon dragged down the broad market, but stocks are now trying to trim losses.

A dearth of data and news flow left stocks to trade in choppy fashion this morning. Despite that, the major equity averages managed modest gains.

Industrial stocks were leaders in the early going. The sector jumped out to a nice gain with help from construction materials and machinery stocks. Those gains were eventually reversed; the sector is now down 0.5%.

The broad market's downturn coincided with an about-face by Europe's bourses, which settled mixed after they had been up solidly earlier in the day, and acceleration in selling against financials. Financials are currently down slightly less than 2%, collectively, as banks, diversified financial services players, and insurance issues all fall out of favor. There isn't any particular catalyst to account for the sector's weakness, but financials are frequently forced lower when participants grow pessimistic upon brooding over the persistently weak financial and economic conditions of Europe.

Although financials continue to undermine buying interest, the broad market is working to trim its loss. The effort comes after stocks found support near last week's intraday lows. DJ30 -35.34 NASDAQ -8.89 SP500 -6.59 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 910/755 mln/1570 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 875/290 mln/2065

12:30 pm : Stocks have started to recover from session lows, but still have a ways to go before they can return to positive territory.

With stocks still in negative territory Treasuries have been able to hold on to a few ticks of gains. Although the move is only modest, it has been enough to take the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note down to a new two-month low of 1.83%. Coming up at the top of the hour are results from the latest auction of 2-year Notes. DJ30 -44.58 NASDAQ -8.34 SP500 -6.99 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 935/675 mln/1540 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 875/260 mln/2040

12:00 pm : Stocks recently fell another leg lower to set their worst levels of the day. Overall losses still aren't that severe, though.

Although weakness is becoming increasingly widespread, financials continue to cause the most damage on broad trade. The sector is now off by 2%, which is at least double what every other sector has suffered. Hardly any of the financial sector's components have gone unscathed -- regional and diversified banks, diversified financial services, investment banks and brokerages, and insurers have all been caught up in selling pressure. DJ30 -62.25 NASDAQ -13.76 SP500 -8.75 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 940/600 mln/1500 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 920/230 mln/1980

11:30 am : The S&P 500 recently tested last week's closing low, near the 1212 line, but it was able to find support and stabilize just above that point. However, there are still no signs that a rebound is in the works.

The stock market's inability to bounce back comes amid a lack of leadership. Of the 10 major sectors, only health care is in positive territory. The sector, which currently sports a 0.3% gain, has been propped up by shares of biotech and pharmaceutical players like Gilead Sciences (GILD 37.80, +0.66), Celgene (CELG 64.53, +0.84), and Pfizer (PFE 21.34, +0.30). DJ30 -28.61 NASDAQ -7.35 SP500 -5.04 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1035/495 mln/1380 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1065/192 mln/1810

11:00 am : Stocks have rolled over after failing to build on the modest gains made during the early going. The downturn has been led by financials, which have been driven to a 1.6% loss. No other sector is in such weak shape.

Financials actually traded quietly in the opening minutes of the session, but the sector remains an easy target for market participants of a more pessimistic persuasion, especially those that are skeptical of the eurozone's ability to efficiently implement plans intended to restore financial and economic conditions in the precarious continent. DJ30 -9.20 NASDAQ -3.07 SP500 -3.42 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1515/670 mln/875 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1735/150 mln/1085

10:35 am : Commodities, as measured by the CRB Commodity Index, are trading higher despite strength in the U.S. Dollar Index. The Dollar Index, moved back into positive territory around 9am EST, which only had a modest effect on select commodities.

Crude oil futures had traded between $93.63-94.41/barrel over the past four hours. The energy component hit a session high of $94.41/barrel just a few minutes after the U.S. stock market opened and is currently trading near the $94 area; now at $94.23, up +0.8%. Natural gas is currently down 1.4% at $3.08/MMBtu.

Metals are mixed this morning with silver showing the largest percent move (down 1.6%). Gold futures rose to its session high of $1611.50/oz just a few minutes before pit trading began. The precious metal has spent the vast majority of the morning in positive territory and is currently up 0.1% at $1600.00/oz. Silver has been in the red all session so far and is now down 1.6% at $29.19/oz.DJ30 +39.96 NASDAQ +10.21 SP500 +2.45 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1557/341 mln/819 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1774/142 mln/1028

10:00 am : The major equity averages have eased back a bit in recent action, but they remain in positive territory with modest gains. However, small-cap stocks are still looking especially strong, collectively boasting a gain of almost 1%, as measured by the Russell 2000. Winn-Dixie Stores (WINN 9.19, +3.76) is a standout in the small-cap space after it was announced that the company will merge with BI-LO in a transaction that will reward WINN owners with $9.50 in cash for each of their shares.DJ30 +37.84 NASDAQ +8.14 SP500 +1.78 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1600/105 mln/600 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1915/55 mln/740

09:45 am : The major equity averages are up with modest gains in the early going. Industrials are displaying leadership by running ahead to a 0.8% gain. The group is currently led by the likes of Caterpillar (CAT 89.14, +1.94) and Rockwell Automation (ROK 72.97, +1.12).

Energy stocks have come under pressure in early trade. The sector is currently wrestling with a 0.5% loss, which comes amid weakness in oil and gas drillers, exploration plays, and even integrated oil and gas issues. The sector's weakness comes even though oil has managed to maintain a 0.6% gain at $94.10 per barrel. DJ30 +47.38 NASDAQ +10.26 SP500 +3.46 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +2.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -4.80. Stock futures have eased off of their morning highs, but a positive tone to trade in Europe has helped foster a supportive bid ahead of the open. In the backdrop, though, the death of Kim Jong Il has created some uncertainty related to the transition of leadership in North Korea.

Currencies have been relatively quiet with the greenback up only fractionally against a basket of major foreign currencies.

A dearth of news flow has given participants few other cues for trade this morning. Data is limited to the latest Housing Market Index, which is due at 10:00 AM ET. Results from an auction of 2-year Notes will be released at 1:00 PM ET.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +4.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.30. Commodities are mixed this morning. That has left the CRB Index to cling to a 0.2% gain. Among its more closely tracked components, oil prices are up 0.7% to $94.20 per barrel, but natural gas prices are down 1.8% to $3.07 per MMBtu. Both are in their opening minutes of pit trade. As for precious metals, gold prices are up 0.5% to $1606 per ounce, but silver is off by 2.2% at $29.03 per ounce.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +4.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.00. Europe's major bourses are up solidly this morning. Strong underlying sentiment has the EuroStoxx 50 up 0.6%. Meanwhile, Germany's DAX has put together a 1.1% gain. Deutsche Bank (DB 36.29, +0.94) and Commerzbank are primary leaders, but automakers like BMW and Volkswagen are also offering strong support. Infineon Tech is currently the only DAX component in negative territory. France's CAC is currently up 1.2%. BNP Paribas and Carrefour are currently out in front of the action, boasting gains of 4.5% and 3.7%, respectively. Laggards have been limited to Societe Generale, Suez Environnement, Bouygues, Alcatel-Lucent (ALU 1.49, +0.01), and Vivendi. Britain's FTSE is off by 0.1%. Lloyds Group (LYG 1.50, +0.00) and BP Plc (BP 40.64, -0.75) have burdened the broad market with pronounced weakness, but the likes of Imperial Tobacco and Unilever Plc (UL 32.02, +0.00) have provided support.

Overnight action in Asia was mostly weak. In the backdrop is uncertainty related to the transition of leadership following the death of North Korea's Kim Jong Il. Japan's Nikkei descended to a 1.3% loss. Olympus was the poorest performer by percent lost -- it tumbled nearly 9%. Panasonic Corp and Nomura Holdings were also sources of weakness. In contrast, Canon (CAJ 43.02, +0.00) and Nissan Motor (NSANY 17.40, +0.00) displayed strength. Hong Kong's Hang Seng shed 1.2%. Property stocks were especially weak. With help from a few natural resource plays, mainland China's Shanghai Composite limited its loss to a 0.3% decline.

Note: all ticker quotes reflect premarket prices.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +2.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -4.00. Coming off of a near 3% weekly decline, a firmly higher start is expected for today's trade, thanks partly to a positive tone in Europe. Although sentiment and trends in Europe are still of primary concern, some market participants have turned their attention to North Korea following the death of the country's leader, Kim Jong Il. There isn't much else for traders to focus on today, especially amid a dearth of data. Today's economic calendar features only the monthly Housing Market Index (10:00 AM ET). Results from an auction of 2-year Notes are also due today (1:00 PM ET).

06:58 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +4.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: flat.

06:58 am : Nikkei...18070.21...-215.20...-1.20%. Hang Seng...8296.12...-41.10...-1.30%.

06:58 am : FTSE...5380.37...-7.00...-0.10%. DAX...5742.71...+40.90...+0.70%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

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