TheStrategyLab.com Price Action Trading Support Forum

Forum for price action traders that want to learn WRB Analysis basic tutorial chapters 1, 2 and 3 prior to purchasing our advance trade methods. Hashtags: #wrbanalysis #wrbzone #wrbhiddengap #priceaction #trading
It is currently Thu Mar 28, 2024 4:06 pm

All times are UTC - 5 hours [ DST ]




Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 1 post ] 
Author Message
 Post subject: December 15th Thursday 2011 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +24.50
PostPosted: Fri Dec 16, 2011 12:39 am 
Offline
Site Admin

Joined: Sat Jan 10, 2009 2:06 pm
Posts: 4335
Location: Canada
Image

Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)

Attachment:
121511-wrbtrader-PnL-Blotter-Profit-2450.png
121511-wrbtrader-PnL-Blotter-Profit-2450.png [ 27.25 KiB | Viewed 325 times ]

click on the above image to view today's performance verification

Trade Performance for Today: +24.50 points or $2450 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, all trades were posted real-time in the free #FuturesTrades chat room. Today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs provides details (e.g. time, price, contract size) about each one of my trades from entry to exit along with price action commentary as the trade traversed...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=98&t=1086.

To join our free chat room...registration instructions located at a different forum @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=630

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=146&t=1312

-----------------------------

Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/IMF actions or any important global economic events that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables (key market events) causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that results in swing points and strong continuation price actions. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for my technical analysis. Just as important, these summaries becomes my archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past...something I can not get from my broker statements alone.

U.S. Stocks Gain as Economic Data Overshadow Europe

Dec. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Bloomberg's Deborah Kostroun reports on the performance of the U.S. equity market today. U.S. stocks rose, snapping a three-day decline in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, as data on jobless claims and manufacturing signaling a strengthening economy overshadowed concern over Europe's debt crisis.

Stocks Snap Three-Day Losing Streak

Attachment:
121511-Key-Price-Action-Markets.png
121511-Key-Price-Action-Markets.png [ 537.25 KiB | Viewed 327 times ]

click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- U.S. stocks closed higher Thursday on upbeat jobs and manufacturing reports, but investors said the market remains nervous about the European debt crisis.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) rose 45 points, or 0.4%, to close at 11,869. The S&P 500 (SPX) rose 4 points, or 0.3%. The Nasdaq (COMP) added 2 points, or 0.1%, to 2,541.

The number of people filing for initial unemployment benefits fell to 366,000 in the latest week -- the lowest level since May 2008, and well below analysts' estimates.

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia said its index of regional manufacturing activity jumped to 10.3 in December from 3.6 in November.

Thursday's economic data reinforced the notion that the U.S. economy will continue to grow at a modest pace. But investors remain concerned about Europe, where the latest plan to end the debt crisis remains in question.

"The threat of something cataclysmic from Europe is keeping investors cautious," said Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott.

* Europe's debt deal is falling flat

Europe's debt woes have been the main market driver since at least September. Investors are concerned that Europe's sovereign debt problems will lead to a banking crisis that could ripple across the global financial system.

The gains Thursday come after three days of losses on Wall Street. On Wednesday, stocks fell 1% as concerns about the European debt crisis and the euro's slide weighed on the market.

* Video - Cracks in Europe's new fiscal treaty

Economy: The Bureau of Labor Statistics' Producer Price Index for the month of November increased by 0.3%, which was higher than expected. The index dropped 0.3% in October.

Industrial production decreased 0.2% in November, after a 0.7% uptick in October, according to the Federal Reserve. Analysts had forecast an increase of 0.2%.

Mortgage rates sank to record lows again this week, according to Freddie Mac's weekly mortgage rate survey.

World markets: European stocks closed higher. Britain's FTSE 100 (UKX) rose 0.6%, the DAX (DAX) in Germany gained 1% and France's CAC 40 (CAC40) added 0.8%.

Asian markets ended sharply lower. The Shanghai Composite (SHCOMP) fell 2.1%, the Hang Seng (HSI) in Hong Kong slumped 1.8% and Japan's Nikkei (N225) dropped 1.7%.

China's manufacturing sector continued to shrink in December, although the pace of contraction was slower than expected.

Companies: After the closing bell, Research in Motion (RIMM) reported third-quarter net income of $667 million, or $1.27 per share. Sales rose 24% to $5.2 billion.

The BlackBerry maker's earnings beat analysts expectations, but the company offered a disappointing outlook for the current quarter and next year. Shares fell 6% in afterhours trading.

Often considered a bellwether of the economy, FedEx (FDX, Fortune 500) reported better-than-expected income in its second fiscal quarter, with an earnings per share of $1.57. Shares rose 8%.

Shares of Novellus Systems (NVLS) climbed 16% after Lam Research Corp (LRCX) announced it will acquire the company in a $3.3 billion transaction. Both companies are large manufacturers of semiconductors, used in chips.

Michael Kors (KORS) stock debuted on the New York Stock Exchange Thursday, after the fashion brand raised $944 million in its initial public offering the previous evening. The IPO was the largest ever for a U.S. fashion company.

* Fed killing bonds? Buy dividend stocks

Currencies and commodities: The dollar fell against the euro, British pound and the Japanese yen.

Oil for January delivery fell $1.08 to $93.87 a barrel.

Gold futures for February delivery fell $9.70 to $1,577.20 an ounce.

Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury fell, pushing the yield up to 1.91% from 1.90% late Wednesday.

Image

Market Update

4:30 pm : Stocks had looked like they would come rallying back from three straight losses, but the broad market's inability to overcome resistance in the early going prompted many participants to exit their positions. Stocks chopped along for the rest of the session and eventually settled with modest gains.

After watching the stock market descend more than 3% during the course of the past three sessions, buyers were finally brought back into the fold. Their interest was initially stirred because Europe's major bourses had been able to bounce on the back of a successful debt offering from Spain and news of improved eurozone manufacturing activity during December. Those themes also helped lift the euro off of the multi-month lows that it had set in the prior session. China reported overnight that it also experienced an improvement in manufacturing activity during December.

Market participants were also encouraged by domestic data. The latest initial weekly jobless claims tally fell to 366,000, which is the smallest count since May 2008. Economists polled by Briefing.com had generally expected a tally on the order of 390,000.

Overall producer prices increased in November by 0.3%, which came as a surprise since a more tepid increase of 0.1% had been generally expected. However, core producer prices increased by an in-line 0.1%.

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey improved to 9.5 for December. Many had expected a reading of just 3.0 for the Survey. The Philadelphia Fed Survey scored a reading of 10.3 in December, surpassing expectations for something closer to 4.5.

Industrial production data was a bit more blemished, but that was generally overlooked. It showed a 0.2% decline in overall activity, contrasting with the consensus call for a 0.2% increase. Industrial production last declined in April.

Although quarterly reports were limited in quantity, a couple of notable announcements featured solid overall results, even if the response to those announcements varied. The latest from FedEx (FDX 83.47, +6.18) featured a better-than-expected bottom line. Discover Financial Services (DFS 23.07, -0.75) had an upside earnings surprise of its own and even increased its quarterly dividend.

Even with all the encouraging headlines, the S&P 500 still couldn't overcome resistance in the 1225 region, which contains its 50-day moving average. The failure to build on opening gains made many skeptical of the stock market's strength. That prompted plenty of people to pocket profits and drive down the major averages. Although the broad market stayed in positive territory, stocks never returned to session highs.

Financials had been the biggest beneficiaries of the early bounce by breaking out to a 1.5% gain. By session's end all of that was dashed -- the sector finished flat.

Technology-related stocks lagged almost all session, causing the tech-rich Nasdaq to trail its counterparts. Tech stocks settled with a collective loss of 0.3%, which is the worst of the major sectors.

Defensive-oriented issues displayed strength for most of the session. That helped the consumer staples, health care, and utilities sectors all book gains of 1% or more. Utilities stocks are actually among this year's strongest performers; the sector is currently sitting on a year-to-date gain of about 11%, while the broad market is down about 3% this year.

Advancing Sectors: Utilities +1.4%, Health Care +1.1%, Consumer Staples +1.0%, Industrials +0.7%, Materials +0.6%, Consumer Discretionary +0.2%, Telecom +0.2%
Unchanged: Financials
Declining Sectors: Energy -0.2%, Tech -0.3%DJ30 +45.33 NASDAQ +1.70 NQ100 -0.3% R2K +1.1% SP400 +0.8% SP500 +3.93 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1465/1.74 bln/1067 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1872/860 mln/1108

3:30 pm : Trade in commodities was substantially quieter today, with fewer headlines to rattle markets. Gold futures ended lower by 0.6% at $1577.20 per ounce. Gold sold off from the unchanged mark, in mid-morning, to put in fresh 2.5 month lows at $1562.50. Futures managed to rebound off those lows to recoup over 10 points and close with modest losses on the day. Silver gained 1.1% to settle at $29.27 per ounce. Silver put in intra-day lows at $28.48 in late morning trade, but spent the remainder of the session rebounding off those lows to recoup losses.

Natural gas settled lower by 0.4% at $3.13. Futures spiked to the upside following this morning’s inventory data, which came in more or less in-line with expectations. They quickly gave those gains up to trade back to the flat line, where they remained throughout the rest of the session. Crude oil settled lower by 1.1% at $93.87 per barrel. Despite trading in a small range for a majority of the session, crude oil dropped to lows, at $93.77, and ended just above those lows –which represent a 1 month low.DJ30 +60.85 NASDAQ +6.38 SP500 +5.71 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1482/1.4 bln/1029 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1952/567.3 mln/1078

3:00 pm : Stocks have eased lower in recent trade. That has the Nasdaq back near the neutral line and the broad market at an afternoon low. It will be interesting to see if stocks can hold on to whatever gains remain with only an hour before the toll of the closing bell, or if participants sour on stocks for the fourth straight session. The broad market is still down in excess of 3% this week.DJ30 +51.35 NASDAQ +2.18 SP500 +4.81 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1465/1.20 bln/1020 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1875/485 mln/1075

2:30 pm : The stock market's afternoon crawl remains uninterrupted. The sideways drift reflects the dollar's action, or lack thereof. For the better part of the afternoon the greenback has trailed a collection of competing currencies by about 0.3%. Treasuries are trading sideways, too.

Trade this afternoon has contrasted the action of the early going, when market participants were juggling multiple headlines, most of which were quite encouraging. However, even a substantial dose of upbeat data proved insufficient to overcome broad market resistance, which pressured stocks into paring gains. DJ30 +61.30 NASDAQ +5.12 SP500 +5.62 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1490/1.10 bln/1000 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1940/445 mln/1000

2:00 pm : Stocks continue to chop along with varied gains. Action is generally listless.

Financials had actually provided leadership in the early going, but the sector has been unable to separate itself from the moves of the broad market. Financials now trade with a collective gain of about 0.7%, which is roughly half of what it displayed during trade this morning. Defensive-oriented stocks like utilities (+1.3%), health care (+1.2%), and consumer staples (+1.1%) are now the best performers. DJ30 +83.02 NASDAQ +7.71 SP500 +6.88 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1385/1.00 bln/1090 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1835/405 mln/1100

1:30 pm : Recent attempts to reclaim gains have lost momentum. That has left the major equity averages to enter into a sideways drift that is about half way between the flat line and session highs.DJ30 +76.51 NASDAQ +7.60 SP500 +7.30 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1475/930 mln/975 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1945/370 mln/990

1:00 pm : Encouraging headlines helped hike stocks in the early going, but an inability to overcome resistance prompted a reversal that stocks are still trying to recover from.

Stocks fell in three straight sessions for a cumulative decline greater than 3% before receiving support this morning. Buyers were compelled by news of improved manufacturing data in Europe. Strong demand for Spain's latest debt offering, indicative of confidence in the country, also bolstered buying interest.

Domestic data helped perpetuate a positive tone among early participants. Initial weekly jobless claims fell more than expected to 366,000 and the Empire State Manufacturing Survey for December proved better-than-expected at 9.5. Overall producer prices for November increased by 0.3%, which is greater than what many had expected, but core producer prices ticked up by only 0.1% as had been broadly predicted. Shortly after the open the Philadelphia Fed Survey for December was released -- it surprised many by improving to 10.3.

Despite the positive tone this morning, stocks struggled to extend their gains in the face of resistance. With the S&P 500 unable to push past the 1225 region, which contains its 50-day moving average, many participants opted to pocket profits. Stocks have managed to reclaim some of their gains in the wake of that downturn, but the major averages remain well below session highs.

The broad market hasn't really been influenced by the latest round of earnings announcements, but FedEx (FDX 82.66, +5.37) shares have been fired up after the company posted an upside earnings surprise. In contrast, Discover Financial Services (DFS 23.01, -0.81) has been dropped to a December low despite its own upside earnings surprise and the company's declaration of a quarterly dividend of $0.10 per share, up from $0.06 per share. DJ30 +74.92 NASDAQ +6.19 SP500 +7.15 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1505/865 mln/935 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2015/350 mln/915

12:30 pm : Recent rebound efforts were put in check by sellers, but stocks have since retraced the slide and even extended the move so that the broad market is now at its best level since the first hour of trade.

Although action has been choppy today, the overall tone of trade is considerably improved over what had been displayed during the past three sessions, when stocks slid to a cumulative loss of more than 3%. The improved tone has taken down the Volatility Index by about 5%. DJ30 +94.53 NASDAQ +8.65 SP500 +9.26 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1440/775 mln/980 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1940/312 mln/980

12:00 pm : Recent efforts by stocks to reclaim gains have come under pressure. Although sellers haven't sent the broad market back to its session low, they were successful in knocking the wind of stocks.

Despite the recent pullback, tech stocks make up the only major sector that has fallen into negative territory. The largest sector by market weight is now down 0.4%. Such weakness has weighed on the Nasdaq, causing it to underperform its counterparts. Tech stocks are essentially flat for the year, while the broad market is down about 3% year to date. DJ30 +63.72 NASDAQ +2.00 SP500 +6.45 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1460/685 mln/935 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1980/280 mln/925

11:30 am : Until a recent jump, efforts by stocks to reclaim gains had been somewhat sluggish. The latest leg of gains coincides with a dip by the dollar, which now trails a collection of competing currencies by almost 0.4% after a recent push toward the flat line.

Although support for stocks has picked up in recent trade, defensive-oriented plays remain in the best shape overall. Specifically, utilities stocks are up 1.2%, consumer staples stocks are up 1.1%, health care stocks are up 0.9%. DJ30 +86.39 NASDAQ +6.28 SP500 +8.47 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1325/570 mln/1030 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1840/235 mln/1020

11:00 am : Stocks encountered a flurry of selling after the S&P 500 failed to overcome technical resistance in the 1225 region. That caused the broad market to surrender a substantial chunk of its gain and even drove down the Nasdaq to a narrow loss before it was able to stabilize.

Financials offered leadership in the early going, but the sector's strength has been checked by the introduction of broad market selling pressure. Financials are now up 0.4% for the session, but they had boasted a gain of about 1.5% in the first 30 minutes of trade. Discover Financial Services (DFS 23.09, -0.73) has become a source of considerable weakness for the sector, despite an upside earnings surprise and the company's declaration of a quarterly dividend of $0.10 per share, up from $0.06 per share. DJ30 +55.09 NASDAQ +1.63 SP500 +5.00 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1355/445 mln/1360 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1910/195 mln/930

10:35 am : The dollar index continues to trade in the red, but has erased some of its losses in recent trade.

Natural gas futures have been on an uptrend and were sitting near its session high of $3.17/MMBtu just ahead of today's inventory data. Following the data, which showed a draw of 102 vs. consensus which called for a draw of 90 bcf, nat gas ticked higher slightly back to its session high, but is now trading up 1 cents at $3.15/MMBTu.

Crude oil futures ran as high as $95.98/barrel earlier this morning, but is now back below the $95 level. In current activity, the energy component is down 0.1% at $94.83/barrel.

Precious metals are in the red again, but losses are modest. Gold is currently trading 0.6% lower at $1578.00/oz, while silver is down 0.7% at $28.72/oz.DJ30 +85.37 NASDAQ +9.83 SP500 +8.68 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1459/380 mln/812 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2080/174 mln/753

10:00 am : Early action remains strong, but the ascent by the S&P 500 has been slowed because of resistance in the region of 1225, which currently contains the 50-day moving average for the broad market measure.

Even a better-than-expected Philadelphia Fed Survey has been unable to give an additional boost to stocks in the face of that resistance. The Survey improved from 3.6 in November to 10.3 in December so that it exceeded the reading of 4.5 that had been expected, on average, among economists polled by Briefing.com. DJ30 +129.53 NASDAQ +18.61 SP500 +12.39 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1695/112 mln/410 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2335/65 mln/355

09:45 am : The major equity averages are all up solidly in the early going. Buying is broad based, but financials are out in front with a 1.2% gain. Financials also displayed relative strength during the prior session, when they collectively fell just 0.3% and the broad market tumbled more than 1%.DJ30 +109.55 NASDAQ +20.34 SP500 +10.71 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +13.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +19.30. Encouraging economic data from home and Europe, along with a successful Spanish debt auction, have helped win support for stocks following three straight losses, each of which was on the order of 1%. The euro is also getting some support after it set an 11-month low in the prior session -- it currently trades at $1.304, which makes for a 0.4% gain.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +13.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +19.30. Commodities were cut down for sharp losses in the prior session, such that the CRB Index fell in excess of 3%. Although the mood among morning traders has improved substantially since the prior session, the CRB is up a relatively tame 0.5% in the early going. Crude oil prices are up just 0.2% to $95.15 per barrel, while natural gas prices are up 0.5% to $3.15 per MMBtu ahead of weekly inventory numbers at 10:30 AM ET. As for precious metals, gold prices are flat at $1587 per ounce, but silver has pushed up to $29.10 per ounce, which makes for a 0.6% gain.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +13.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +20.00. Stock futures have extended their lead over fair value with help from an encouraging dose of data. First off, initial weekly jobless claims for the week ended December 10 totaled only 366,000, which is 19,000 less than what was logged last week and substantially less than the 390,000 initial claims that had been generally expected among economists polled by Briefing.com.

Separately, the Empire State Manufacturing Survey improved to 9.5 in December from 0.6 in the prior month. Many had expected the Survey to improve to just 3.0.

Additionally, producer prices increased by 0.3% during November, when a more tepid increase of 0.1% had been widely anticipated. However, core producer prices for November increased by 0.1%, as had been expected.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +10.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +16.50. Stocks have fallen in excess of 3% this week, but a positive tone to premarket trade suggests that the market is poised to pare that decline. The improved tone comes as both the euro and Europe's major bourses attract support amid news of pleasing regional manufacturing numbers and strong demand at Spain's latest debt auction.

Corporate news has featured an upside earnings surprise from FedEx (FDX 80.20, +2.91). Early traders are still waiting on quarterly results from Discover Financial (DFS 23.52, -0.30). Note: all ticker quotes reflect premarket prices.

A few helpings of data are on tap for today, starting with weekly initial jobless claims, producer price data, and the latest monthly Empire State Manufacturing Survey at 8:30 AM ET. Monthly industrial production numbers follow at 9:15 AM ET then comes the latest Philadelphia Fed Survey at 10:00 AM ET. Results from an auction of 5-year TIPS will be posted at 1:00 PM ET.

06:20 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +5.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +7.30.

06:20 am : Nikkei...8377.37...-141.80...-1.70%. Hang Seng...18026.84...-327.60...-1.80%.

06:20 am : FTSE...5400.07...+33.30...+0.60%. DAX...5738.01...+62.90...+1.10%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

Phone: +1.708.572.4885
Business Hours: 8am - 5pm est (Mon - Fri)
Skype Messenger: kebec2002
intradaystrategies@yahoo.com
questions@thestrategylab.com
Go Back To TheStrategyLab.com Homepage


Top
 Profile  
 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 1 post ] 

All times are UTC - 5 hours [ DST ]


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot post attachments in this forum

Search for:
Jump to:  
cron
Powered by phpBB © 2000, 2002, 2005, 2007 phpBB Group
Translated by Xaphos © 2007, 2008, 2009 phpBB.fr