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 Post subject: December 14th Wednesday 2011 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +15.20
PostPosted: Wed Dec 14, 2011 10:38 pm 
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Joined: Sat Jan 10, 2009 2:06 pm
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)

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click on the above image to view today's performance verification

Trade Performance for Today: +15.20 points or $1520 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, all trades were posted real-time in the free #FuturesTrades chat room. Today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs provides details (e.g. time, price, contract size) about each one of my trades from entry to exit along with price action commentary as the trade traversed...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=98&t=1084.

To join our free chat room...registration instructions located at a different forum @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=630

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=146&t=1312

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Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/IMF actions or any important global economic events that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables (key market events) causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that results in swing points and strong continuation price actions. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for my technical analysis. Just as important, these summaries becomes my archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past...something I can not get from my broker statements alone.

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Market Update

4:30 pm : The stock market's third straight tumble has it down more than 3% this week. The downward path comes as participants revert to a negative bias bolstered by the absence of progress related to the improvement of Europe's precarious conditions.

For three straight days the path of least resistance for stocks has been downward. Negative sentiment has been induced by a muddled and tenuous macro outlook. Moreover, participants are growing weary of the lack of progress by Europe's leaders in restoring economic and financial conditions in both the core and periphery of the continent. That has provided fodder for rumors of further sovereign debt downgrades in the region.

Dwindling confidence in the region has the euro on a downward path. It dropped to an 11-month low, before stabilizing and finishing the session with a 0.4% loss at $1.298.

Efforts to pare risk extended to commodities, causing the CRB Index to drop 3.4%. The CRB hasn't had such a poor performance since September. Among the more closely tracked commodities, gold futures prices fell 4.6% to settle at $1587.70 per ounce, while silver futures prices were pressed to $28.86 per ounce for a 7.6% loss. Crude oil ended down 5.2% at $94.95 per barrel -- a smaller-than-expected weekly inventory draw didn't help.

The combination of sharply lower oil prices and broad market weakness made energy plays today's poorest performers. The sector slid almost to a loss of almost 3%. Everything from exploration plays to drillers to refiners were caught up in the sector's sell-off.

Benefiting from the drop in oil prices, airline shares ascended in the face of broad market weakness. Meanwhile, financials managed to limit losses to a collective decline of only 0.3%, despite the possible implications if problems in Europe persist, let alone worsen.

Treasuries extended their gains. Another strong auction helped. Results from an offering of 30-year Bonds drew a bid-to-cover of 3.05, dollar demand of $39.7 billion, and an indirect bidder rate of 32.5%. For comparison, an average of the past six auctions gives a bid-to-cover of 2.62, dollar demand of $36.4 billion, and indirect bidder participation of 31.6%.

Advancing Sectors: (None)
Declining Sectors: Health Care -0.2%, Financials -0.3%, Consumer Staples -0.5%, Telecom -0.6%, Utilities -0.8%, Industrials -1.1%, Consumer Discretionary -1.2%, Materials -1.2%, Tech -1.7%, Energy -2.7%DJ30 -131.46 NASDAQ -39.96 NQ100 -1.6% R2K -1.3% SP400 -1.6% SP500 -13.91 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 902/1.78 bln/1672 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 844/929 mln/2195

3:30 pm : Concerns over the euro zone caused a broad base sell-off today in the commodities complex. Chatter about a possible French downgrade added additional strength to the dollar and increased downward pressure on commodities. Gold futures fell 4.6% to settle at $1587.70 per ounce. Futures broke below their 200-sma, which added some technical selling pressure, to put in lows at $1565 - gold's lowest level since Sept 29. Silver futures dropped 7.6% to end at $28.86 per ounce. Futures put in lows at $28.53, their worst level s since Oct 5 but managed to bounce around 30 cents off those lows.

Crude oil ended down 5.2% at $94.95 per barrel, pressured by euro zone concerns, technical selling after futures broke below the $96 support area, and inventory data which showed a smaller-than-expected draw down. Futures put in lows at $94.21, their lowest levels in over a month, but managed to bounce off those lows heading into the close. Natural gas fell 4.2% to finish at $3.14 per MMBtu. Futures put in lows at $3.13, a fresh +2 month low, and closed just above those lows. Inventory data will be released tomorrow at 10:30 ET.DJ30 -127.83 NASDAQ -40.45 SP500 -15.73 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 815/1.4 bln/1720 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 843/625.4 mln/2214

3:00 pm : Stocks enter the final hour of the session on pace for their third straight loss of about 1%. That has stocks down in excess of 3% in three days, but unless the trend continues stocks still have a ways to go before they match the market's worst weekly performance of the past month. That ignoble distinction goes to the week ended November 25, when the S&P 500 fell almost 5%. So far this year, the broad market measure has suffered 26 weekly losses, which has left it on track for an annual loss of almost 4%.DJ30 -159.43 NASDAQ -45.23 SP500 -14.84 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 815/1.21 bln/1695 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 825/530 mln/2190

2:30 pm : Stocks have stabilized since rolling over from their early afternoon highs. The reversal actually took the Dow down to a new session low, but neither of its counterparts was hit as severely.

Although broad market pressure has been rekindled, financials continue to refuse efforts to take the sector lower. Financials were recently dragged down to the neutral line, but the group found support there. With help from regional banks and insurance plays, financials are now resting on a 0.2% gain. That might not be much, but it is better than what any other sector is doing currently. DJ30 -130.90 NASDAQ -38.33 SP500 -11.32 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 825/1.13 bln/1690 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 865/490 mln/2140

2:00 pm : Stocks entered mid-afternoon trade with losses that were about half of what had been suffered when stocks were at session lows, but the major averages have since slipped. Stocks are still above session lows, but pressure remains underpinned by market participants' aversion to risk. The inclination to sell comes amid waning confidence in Europe's ability to restore economic and financial conditions in both the core and periphery of the continent, especially since there haven't been any recent reports that point to progress.

Waning confidence in the continent's officials has also undermined support for the euro, which set a new 11-month low this morning. The euro has since improved its position, but continues to trade at about $1.299, which puts it about 0.3% behind the greenback. The euro is still down roughly 3% year to date. DJ30 -117.94 NASDAQ -36.10 SP500 -10.55 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 838/1.04 bln/1648 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 917/458.5 mln/2113

1:30 pm : Treasuries have added to their gains following results from an auction of 30-year Bonds that were released at 1:00 PM ET. The auction drew a bid-to-cover of 3.05, dollar demand of $39.7 billion, and an indirect bidder rate of 32.5%. For comparison, the prior auction drew a bid-to-cover of 2.40, dollar demand of $38.4 billion, and an indirect bidder rate of 28.4%. An average of the past six auctions gives a bid-to-cover of 2.62, dollar demand of $36.4 billion, and indirect bidder participation of 31.6%.DJ30 -73.72 NASDAQ -30.39 SP500 -7.55 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 790/915 mln/1690 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 890/395 mln/2075

1:00 pm : Stocks are down substantially for the third straight day, but recent efforts by the euro to improve its position have helped ease some of the pressure against stocks.

The major equity averages opened modestly lower today, but efforts to trim losses were quickly cut down by sellers. Sellers may have already driven stocks down more than 2% during the course of the previous two sessions, but market sentiment has had a hard time improving without any clarity on the macro outlook or reports of progress pertaining to the precarious economic and financial conditions of Europe. A negative bias abroad drove down Europe's bourses to another round of sizable losses, resulting in a near 2% decline for the EuroStoxx 50.

Weak sentiment in Europe has also hurt the euro, causing the currency to set an 11-month low. The euro has since worked its way upward, but continues to contend with a 0.3% loss against the greenback -- it was last quoted at $1.300.

The euro's upturn has coincided with efforts by stocks to cut losses, but weakness remains generally widespread and most pronounced among riskier assets.

That said, financials have managed to muster a modest gain of about 0.3% in the face of today's broad-based selling effort. But that pales in comparison with what many airlines have accomplished. The ascent by airlines comes in conjunction with a precipitous drop by oil prices, which have fallen more than 4% to trade for less $96 per barrel.

Oil isn't the only commodity getting cut in aggressive fashion. Failing to benefit from any kind of flight to safety, gold prices were last quoted with a 4.5% loss at $1587 per ounce, while silver has been slashed to $29.15 per ounce for a 6.8% loss. DJ30 -95.65 NASDAQ -38.55 SP500 -9.65 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 750/840 mln/1710 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 835/360 mln/2105

12:30 pm : Results from an auction of 30-year Bonds are due at the top of the hour. Ahead of those results the yield on the 30-year Bond stands at 2.96%. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Note stands at 1.93%, while the yield on the 2-year Note is at 0.25%. Yields are near their lowest levels in about two months as market participants rotate into the relative safe havens amid the uncertainty stemming from precarious financial and economic conditions in Europe.DJ30 -109.74 NASDAQ -42.31 SP500 -11.61 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 675/755 mln/1755 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 705/325 mln/2235

12:00 pm : The major domestic averages are stuck near session lows, but stocks in Europe have settled their latest session of trade. Britain's FTSE 100 fell 2.0% as every single component suffered a loss except Wm. Morrison Supermarkets. France's CAC was cut down to a 3.0% loss as all 40 of its components were sent into negative territory. Financial outfits Societe Generale and BNP Paribas were hit the hardest. Germany's DAX was dropped for a 1.6% loss. Commerzbank, Deutsche Boerse, and Fresenius Medical were the only three names in the 30-member bourse that managed to book gains. Automakers BMW, Volkswagen, and Daimler led losses. Earlier today Germany reported strong results from a recent debt auction.

Weak sentiment in Europe has also hurt the euro, which is currently down 0.5% against the greenback. Recent weakness in the currency has left it to trade at an 11-month low. DJ30 -132.18 NASDAQ -49.70 SP500 -15.06 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 615/665 mln/1780 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 685/285 mln/2250

11:30 am : Although the broad market down about 1% for the third straight day, airline stocks are displaying strength this session. The ascent by airlines comes in conjunction with descending oil prices, which have fallen 4.5% to a one-month low of $95.70 per barrel. Among airline plays, US Airways (LCC 5.45, +0.26) and JetBlue Airways (JBLU 5.18, +0.26) are top performers by percent gained. The pair made similar moves this last Friday, when market participants gave stocks a broad lift upon receiving encouraging reports from last week's eurozone summit.DJ30 -121.55 NASDAQ -47.85 SP500 -14.12 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 630/510 mln/1735 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 640/230 mln/2250

11:00 am : The Dow is down to a new session low, but both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite are only testing the depths that they set earlier this morning. Of the three, the Nasdaq is down the most.

In the face of the broad-based selling effort, financials have held up quite well. The sector, which is usually given negative attention amid concerns about the macro environment and flagging economic and financial conditions in Europe, is down only 0.2%. That's just one-fifth of the loss that the broad market has suffered to this point today. DJ30 -109.14 NASDAQ -38.76 SP500 -12.43 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 650/415 mln/1670 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 670/193 mln/2180

10:35 am : The dollar index is sitting near its session high of 80.61, while the euro, which fell to its lowest level since January in trade yesterday, remains below $1.30 against the U.S. dollar.

Commodities are red across the board as a result with the sharpest losses in the metals space. Crude oil futures fell below the $100 level in overnight activity and sold off sharply this morning. Just ahead of inventory data, crude was about 3.4% lower at $96.73/barrel. Following the weekly inventory data just released, which showed a draw of 1.9 mln vs. consensus of a draw of 2.5 mln, crude ticked to a fresh session low, but is now down 3.1% at $97.09/barrel.

Natural gas is trading 2.7% lower at $3.19/MMBtu. Heating oil is down 2.1% at $2.87/gallon and RBOB gasoline is 2.6% lower at $2.56/gallon.

In the metals space, silver is showing a steep loss of almost 7%. The precious metal fell back below the $30 level this morning and is currently down 6.9% at $29.11/oz. Gold is extending its losses from yesterday and is heading towards the $1600 level. Gold is now 3.2% lower at $1609.20/oz.

Copper futures are down 3.7% at $3.32/lb, platinum is down 4.2% at $1430.90/oz and aluminum is down 1.3% at $1900/ton.

Wheat futures were flat in overnight trade at $6.01/bushel, while corn fell 1 cent to $5.93/bu. Soybeans lost 4 cents to $11.14/bu.DJ30 -73.53 NASDAQ -33.51 SP500 -9.99 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 595/349 mln/1693 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 605/167 mln/2231

10:00 am : Efforts to improve the position of stocks were recently undermined by sellers, who dropped stocks deeper into the red to set new morning lows. The major equity averages have managed to stabilize, however.

Energy stocks remain under the most pressure with oil prices descending steadily so that the energy component now trades with a 3.3% loss at $96.80 per barrel ahead of weekly inventory numbers, which are due at the bottom of the hour. Energy stocks are now collectively off by 1.5%, which makes it the poorest performing sector by a wide margin. Materials stocks and technology stocks make up the next two worst performing sectors -- both are down 0.9%. DJ30 -61.30 NASDAQ -23.37 SP500 -8.39 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 615/65 mln/1440 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 630/55 mln/1970

09:45 am : The major equity averages are down modestly this morning. Energy plays are a primary source of weakness with oil prices down nearly 3% to $97.20 per barrel. As a group, energy stocks are down 0.9%.

Financials are showing some strength today. The sector has managed to muster a 0.3% gain with help from banking plays. Relative strength in that segment has the KBW Bank Index up 0.5%. DJ30 -16.45 NASDAQ -11.02 SP500 -1.72 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -4.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -7.60. Stock futures had received a modest bid earlier this morning, but buying interest proved fleeting as market participants shifted their attention to the action of Europe, where the region's major bourses are battling renewed selling pressure and the euro has slumped to a new 11-month low just beneath $1.298. The euro's slide has helped hike the greenback to its highest level since early this year, but that has exacerbated weakness among commodities, which are currently caught up in efforts to pare risk-related assets. Pressure against commodities this morning has dropped the CRB Index for a 1.7% loss. Data has been limited to November import and export prices, neither of which induced any real reaction among premarket participants, but the calendar still contains weekly oil inventories (10:30 AM ET) and results from an auction of 30-year Bonds (1:00 PM ET).

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -3.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -7.40. Commodities have come under a concerted selling effort, resulting in a 1.4% loss for the CRB Index. Pressure is broad with oil prices down 2.0% to $98.10 per barrel ahead of the weekly oil inventory report, which is due at 10:30 AM ET. Nautral gas prices are also down sharply with a 2.0% loss at $3.22 per MMBtu. Precious metals aren't seeing any kind of flight to safety with stocks setting up for a flat-to-lower open after they already logged two straight losses for a cumulative decline of more than 2%. Gold prices were last quoted with a 2.5% loss at $1622 per ounce. Silver has been slashed to $29.52 per ounce, which makes for a 5.5% loss. In the backdrop, the dollar has extended its advance by another 0.4% against a collection of competing currencies. That puts the greenback at a new 11-month low.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -1.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -4.40. Stock futures continue to move without much direction following today's first dose of data. That has left them to trade narrowly below neutral line. Export prices, excluding agricultural items, slipped by 0.1% in November. That makes for a sharp slowdown since the 1.5% decline in the prior period. Import prices, excluding oil, fell by 0.2% in November, just as they had in the prior month.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -0.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.90. Stocks have fallen more than 2% during the course of the past couple of days, but sentiment ahead of the open is currently neutral. Stock futures had actually sported a modest lead over fair value earlier, but premarket buyers have since balked. Waning support interest comes as the euro resumes its downward drift, putting the currency only narrowly above its 2011 low, and Europe's bourses retreat so that the EuroStoxx 50 now trades with a 0.5% loss. Results from debt auctions by Germany and Italy have failed to inspire confidence in the region's assets. There isn't a great deal of corporate news today, but the calendar features monthly import and export price data (8:30 AM ET), weekly oil inventories (10:30 AM ET), and results from the latest auction of 30-year Bonds.

06:29 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +1.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.10.

06:29 am : Nikkei...8519.13...-33.70...-0.40%. Hang Seng...18354.43...-92.70...-0.50%.

06:29 am : FTSE...5443.04...+15.20...+0.30%. DAX...5720.53...-53.70...-0.90%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

Phone: +1.708.572.4885
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