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 Post subject: December 13th Tuesday 2011 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +34.50
PostPosted: Wed Dec 14, 2011 1:26 am 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)

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click on the above image to view today's performance verification

Trade Performance for Today: +34.50 points or $3450 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, all trades were posted real-time in the free #FuturesTrades chat room. Today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs provides details (e.g. time, price, contract size) about each one of my trades from entry to exit along with price action commentary as the trade traversed...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=98&t=1083.

To join our free chat room...registration instructions located at a different forum @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=630

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=146&t=1312

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Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/IMF actions or any important global economic events that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables (key market events) causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that results in swing points and strong continuation price actions. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for my technical analysis. Just as important, these summaries becomes my archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past...something I can not get from my broker statements alone.

U.S. Stocks Fall, Treasuries Gain as Fed Damps QE3 Bets

Dec. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Bloomberg's Cali Carlin reports on the performance of the U.S. equity market today. Stocks fell, while the dollar and Treasuries rallied, as the Federal Reserve refrained from taking more steps to stimulate the economy and concern grew that European leaders won't agree on ways to expand the region's bailout capacities. Gold slumped to a seven-week low.

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Market Update

4:30 pm : The stock market was sporting an impressive gain in the early going, but the confluence of technical resistance, another retreat by the euro, and disappointment over the Fed's failure to give additional consideration to further quantitative easing forced stocks lower.

Prior to the open market participants were dealt some underwhelming retail sales numbers for November. Specifically, both total sales and sales less autos increased by 0.2%, but total sales had been generally expected to increase by 0.6%, while sales less autos had been generally expected to post a 0.5% increase.

Big box electronics retailer Best Buy (BBY 23.79, -4.28) issued another disappointing announcement for its third fiscal quarter that featured an earnings miss. The stock would inevitably slump for one of its worst performances of the past few years.

However, most traders were willing to look past such negative themes, focusing rather on the cues that were coming from Europe. Renewed buying interest there was partly credited to encouraging data from Germany, but day-to-day shifts in sentiment have been a recurring theme in recent months. Europe's major bourses would eventually slide.

Prior to Europe's pullback, stocks were able to build on their opening gains because of rumors that the Fed might make more than mere mention of the possibility of further quantitative easing. That took the stock market to an early gain of about 1%, but the inability of the S&P 500 to overcome technical resistance and a retreat by the euro dashed those gains. The euro ended the day about 1.1% lower at $1.303, which makes for its lowest level in 11 months.

Stocks found support at the flat line and even made a modest rebound, but sellers soon redoubled their efforts upon receiving the latest FOMC policy statement, which did not make any new mention of plans for further quantitative easing, but recognized that strains in global financial markets continue to pose significant downside risks to the economic outlook. To little surprise, the Fed kept target interest rate in the range of 0.00% to 0.25% and remained committed to extending the average maturity of its holdings.

Given the uncertainty of the macro picture, many investors continue to crave the safety of Treasuries, even with the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note at only 2.0%. Results from an auction of 10-year Notes today showed dollar demand of $74.1 billion on a bid-to-cover of 3.53 and an indirect bidder participation rate of 61.9%. For comparison, an average of the last six auctions gives dollar demand of $65.2 billion on a bid-to-cover of 3.03 and an indirect bidder rate of 42.2%.

Advancing Sectors: Utilities +0.5%
Declining Sectors: Telecom -0.1%, Health Care -0.2%, Consumer Staples -0.3%, Energy -0.5%, Tech -0.9%, Industrials -1.1%, Financials -1.5%, Materials -1.7%, Consumer Discretionary -2.0%DJ30 -66.45 NASDAQ -32.99 NQ100 -1.0% R2K -2.1% SP400 -1.9% SP500 -10.74 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 586/1.75 bln/1948 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 857/927 mln/2171

3:30 pm : It was another headline driven day for commodities. Chatter about QE3, comments from German Chancellor Angela Merkel that she rejected raising the upper limits of funding for the ESM bailout, and more about Iran and the Strait of Hormuz all created volatility. Gold futures ended lower by 0.3% at $1663.10 per ounce, while silver finished up 0.8% at $31.26 per ounce. Both metals were pressured throughout the session after the dollar rallied on Merkel’s comments. Both metals have extended their respective sell-offs in electronic trade on the back of the FOMC decision.

Crude oil settled higher by 2.4% at $100.14 per barrel. Futures rallied sharply on headlines that Iran did actually shut the Strait of Hormuz in a war game exercise. Futures pulled back from those levels after more headlines, citing Iranian sources, that the country did not shut the water-way. Natural gas ended up 0.8% at $3.28 per MMBtu.DJ30 -56.08 NASDAQ -32.37 SP500 -2.06 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 756/1.3 bln/1750 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1010/575.6 mln/2049

3:00 pm : Sellers have redoubled their efforts to drive the S&P 500 into negative territory after it had seemed to receive support at the flat line. The downturn has left stocks at their lowest level of the day.

Financials have become a considerable source of weakness. The sector is now down 1.0%, which is second only to the consumer discretionary sector's 1.2% slide. The financial sector had actually sported a gain of about 1% this morning. DJ30 +7.57 NASDAQ -14.55 SP500 -3.18 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 950/1.12 bln/1555 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1165/455 mln/1820

2:30 pm : The stock market has returned to the neutral line in the wake of the latest FOMC Policy statement, but the dollar has added to its gains so that it now sports a 0.7% lead over a collection of competing currencies.

To little surprise the FOMC kept interest rate targets unchanged, but it was also stated that the Fed will continue its program to extend the average maturity of its holdings, as had been stated in September. It was also reported that the economy has been expanding moderately, but strains in global financial markets continue to pose significant downside risks to the outlook. DJ30 +63.72 NASDAQ -2.18 SP500 +3.28 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1370/965 mln/1090 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1835/380 mln/1140

2:00 pm : Stocks continue to chop along ahead of the FOMC Policy Statement, which is due for release at 2:15 PM ET. This morning it was rumored that the FOMC might do more than merely mention the possibility of further quantitative easing. That helped take the broad market to a gain of about 1% before technical resistance and a reversal in the euro brought about selling pressure.DJ30 +99.30 NASDAQ +5.25 SP500 +6.75 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1225/905 mln/1240 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1675/355 mln/1300

1:30 pm : Stocks continue to drift along with varied gains, but Treasuries have made a strong, upward move following results from an auction of 10-year Notes. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Note is now at 2.00% on the nose.

The auction drew a bid-to-cover of 3.53, dollar demand of $74.1 billion, and an indirect bidder participation rate of 61.9%. For comparison, the prior auction produced a bid-to-cover of 2.64, dollar demand of $55.4 billion, and an indirect bidder rate of 41.5%. An average of the last six auctions results in a bid-to-cover of 3.03, dollar demand of $65.2 billion, and an indirect bidder rate of 42.2%. DJ30 +73.75 NASDAQ +1.67 SP500 +5.10 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1270/825 mln/1180 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1630/325 mln/1330

1:00 pm : Stocks jumped out to strong gains in the early going, but the mix of technical resistance and a bounce by the greenback prompted a pullback.

The tone of trade this morning showed considerable improvement since the prior session's sell-off, thanks to renewed buying interest in Europe. With traders taking their cues from across the pond, the major equity averages got a strong start. The path to early gains on the order of 1% was made easier by rumors that the Fed may give the topic of further quantitative easing something more than mere mention.

However, after the S&P 500 failed to overcome resistance near the 1250 line and the euro retreated sharply into the red stocks came under a barrage of selling.

Stocks didn't steady their descent until the S&P 500 reached the neutral line. They have managed to reclaim only a portion of their gains since securing support.

Consumer discretionary plays continue to grapple with selling pressure, however. The sector is down 0.6%, which makes it the worst performing sector of the session. Many of its members have been imbued by a smaller-than-expected increases in both total retail sales and sales less autos during November.

An earnings miss has Best Buy (BBY 24.84, -3.23) in particularly poor shape. In fact, the stock is on pace for its worst single-session slide in almost exactly one year. Interestingly, since 2009 the stock's three worst one-day declines have come near this date, coinciding with the company's final earnings or outlooks of the calendar year. DJ30 +77.80 NASDAQ +3.54 SP500 +6.11 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1280/745 mln/1140 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1620/295 mln/1320

12:30 pm : Shares of Best Buy (BBY 24.84, -3.23) are down more than 11% today. That makes for their worst single-session slide since a near 15% drop almost exactly one year ago. Interestingly, the stock's third worst one-day decline, which exceeded 8%, came almost exactly two years ago. The sell-offs have all coincided with negative responses to the company's earnings or outlooks reported in the final weeks of the calendar year.DJ30 +57.25 NASDAQ +3.40 SP500 +4.83 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1400/675 mln/1015 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1785/270 mln/1145

12:00 pm : Stocks continue to steadily reclaim their gains, but they're only about half way to session highs.

Energy stocks continue to outperform. Even after the broad market's pullback the sector is boasting a 1.3% gain, which is not only greater than what any other sector has achieved, but just about double what the next best performing sector's have done -- financials and health care are up 0.6% and 0.7%, respectively. Integrated issues like Exxon Mobil (XOM 81.59, +1.54) and Chevron (CVX 105.11, +2.04) are primary leaders in the energy space. DJ30 +68.15 NASDAQ +5.26 SP500 +6.31 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1360/612 mln/1040 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1765/245 mln/1145

11:30 am : During the course of a single hour the stock market gave back all of a gain that was greater than 1%. However, rather than extend its retreat into the red, the S&P 500 received support at the flat line. That has helped bring a few buyers back into the fold, and enabled the stock market to reclaim a few points.

The Nasdaq, which now trades with a modest loss, has been less fortunate than either of its counterparts. It has been burdened by Amazon.com (AMZN 181.44, -8.08), which is down more than 4% following news of a smaller-than-expected increase in November retail sales. An earnings miss by Best Buy (BBY 24.98, -3.09) is having an unclear impact on retail-related plays; some cynics have called Best Buy a showroom for Amazon.com. DJ30 +48.78 NASDAQ -2.77 SP500 +4.10 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1065/490 mln/1260 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1425/205 mln/1450

11:00 am : Stocks have surrendered a substantial chunk of their gains in recent trade. The market's reversal comes after the S&P 500 failed to overcome resistance near the 1250 line and the euro has retreated to a 0.9% loss against the greenback after it had been flat in the early going.DJ30 +55.74 NASDAQ +3.01 SP500 +4.85 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1500/365/800 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1945/160 mln/900

10:35 am : The dollar index remains in the red, but has moved back near the unchanged line. Just under an hour ago, the CRB Commodity Index rallied to a new session high of 307.08, helped by a continued pullback in the dollar index. A number of commodities rallies to new session highs on this move (Crude oil hit $101.25/barrel, gold hit $1681.70/oz and silver rose to $32.04/oz).

Most commodities have since pulled back notably from there session highs. However, crude oil futures continue to trade above the $100 level and are currently up 2.5% at $100.20/barrel. Nat gas is down 0.2% at $3.25/MMBtu.

Gold has only pulled back modestly from its session high and is now up 0.1% at $1670.40/oz. Silver pulled back about $0.60/oz and is currently trading 1.5% higher at $31.45/oz.DJ30 +92.18 NASDAQ +17.01 SP500 +9.19 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1604/329 mln/678 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1933/147 mln/885

10:00 am : Stocks recently extended their early gains amid rumors that the Fed may mention further quantitative easing in its policy statement at 2:15 PM ET, but the major market averages have since steadied. Commodities got an especially strong lift from the rumor, such that the CRB Index now sports a 1.1% gain.

Little attention has been paid to the latest business inventory data, which showed that inventories increased during October by 0.8%. Economists polled by Briefing.com had expected, on average, an increase of 0.9%. DJ30 +121.92 NASDAQ +23.35 SP500 +13.03 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1715/105 mln/385 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2305/55 mln/410

09:45 am : Stocks are up nicely in the early going. Thus far, the buying effort has been broad based, but energy stocks are out in front, sporting a 1.5% gain. The move makes for a reversal from the prior session, when the sector suffered one of the worst losses of the day by falling more than 2%.

Strength among energy stocks has been helped by higher oil prices, which are building on early strength by bouncing to $100.35 per barrel for a 2.6% gain. DJ30 +109.66 NASDAQ +25.81 SP500 +11.91 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +6.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +17.00. The major equity averages slid to sizable losses in the prior session, but stock futures suggest that a rebound is likely taking shape. The improved mood comes as Europe's bourses trade higher with help from some encouraging data from Germany. Market participants await the latest Fed commentary, which is expected to accompany the FOMC Policy Statement at 2:15 PM ET. Meanwhile, many have shrugged off lackluster retail sales numbers for November. Disappointing earnings from Best Buy (BBY 25.55, -2.52) have also done little to dissuade broad market buying interest, although the stock itself is being hit hard ahead of the open. Its premarket price, quoted here, translates to a 9% loss from its prior session close.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +6.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +18.80. Gains among commodities are varied, but they've been enough to lift the CRB Index by 0.4%. Among the CRB's more widely followed components, oil prices are up 0.7% to $98.50 per barrel in early pit trade. Natural gas prices are up 0.6% to $3.28 per MMBtu. As for precious metals, gold prices are flat at $1668 per ounce, but silver is sporting a 1.1% gain at $31.33 per ounce.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +5.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +14.80. Although shy of their morning high, stock futures continue to sport a solid lead over fair value. Retail sales increased during November by 0.2%, which is less than the 0.6% that had been generally expected among economists surveyed by Briefing.com. Sales less autos also increased by 0.2% during November, but they had been expected to post a 0.5% increase. Total sales for the prior month were revised incrementally higher to reflect a 0.6% increase, while sales less autos for the prior month continued to show a 0.6% increase.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +6.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +17.00. An improved mood of trade in Europe, where the region's bourses are up with varied gains, has permeated premarket trade in the U.S. In turn, stock futures sport a solid lead over fair value. That sets things up for a rebound from the broad-based slide suffered in the prior session.

The improved tone of trade has compelled some to pare their positions in the dollar, although not very aggressively -- the dollar is down about 0.1% after it climbed more than 1% against a collection of competing currencies in the prior session.

Corporate news is light, but the latest quarterly report from Best Buy (BBY 25.70, -2.37) has garnered interest. The big box retailer came short of the consensus earnings estimate, leaving shares to tumble ahead of the open. Note: BBY ticker quote reflects premarket price.

Today's calendar features monthly retail sales numbers, which are due at the bottom of the hour. Business inventory figures follow at 10:00 AM ET. Results from an auction of 10-year Notes will be released at 1:00 PM ET. The calendar wraps up with the FOMC Meeting Announcement at 2:15 PM ET.

07:23 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +6.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +15.50.

07:23 am : Nikkei...8552.81...-101.00...-1.20%. Hang Seng...18447.17...-128.50...-0.70%.

07:23 am : FTSE...5466.12...+38.30...+0.70%. DAX...5830.00...+44.60...+0.80%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

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