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 Post subject: December 12th Monday 2011 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +27.20
PostPosted: Mon Dec 12, 2011 11:55 pm 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)

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click on the above image to view today's performance verification

Trade Performance for Today: +27.20 points or $2720 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, all trades were posted real-time in the free #FuturesTrades chat room. Today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs provides details (e.g. time, price, contract size) about each one of my trades from entry to exit along with price action commentary as the trade traversed...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=98&t=1080.

To join our free chat room...registration instructions located at a different forum @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=630

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=146&t=1312

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Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/IMF actions or any important global economic events that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables (key market events) causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that results in swing points and strong continuation price actions. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for my technical analysis. Just as important, these summaries becomes my archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past...something I can not get from my broker statements alone.

Stocks Tumble On European Worries, Intel Warning

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click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- U.S. stocks tumbled in a broad sell-off Monday amid growing investor doubt that Europe's debt crisis will actually be resolved, and a sales warning from chipmaker Intel.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) slid 163 points, or 1.3%, while the S&P 500 (SPX) lost 19 points, or 1.5%, and the Nasdaq (COMP) dropped 35 points, or 1.3%. Earlier, all three major indexes had declined about 2%.

Monday's retreat followed Friday's rally, fueled by a deal for a new intergovernmental treaty reached by European leaders to resolve the long-running debt crisis. The plan is expected to be finalized by March, but a lot can happen between now and then.

"I think it was a sigh of relief on Friday that at least the leaders are aligned in that they want to solve this thing, but now the heavy lifting comes in," said Kim Caughey Forrest, senior equity analyst at Fort Pitt Capital Group.

Leaders of the European countries involved in the deal will have to go back and convince their politicians to pass measures that will include "all the ugly stuff that comes along with belt-tightening," said Forrest.

* Europe debt saga far from over

"It's going to be difficult to get this passed," she added. "Countries want to maintain their sovereignty and solve the crisis at the same time, so it's going to be a long slog."

Moody's "renewed call to review European sovereign debt" added pressure on the markets. Early Monday, the credit ratings agency said Friday's plan offered "few new measures" and pledged to review the credit ratings of all European Union members at the beginning of the new year.

"Moody's believes that the system remains prone to further shocks, which would likely lead to selective rating changes," wrote Moody's analysts.

* Video - Why investors still worry about Europe

The mood on Wall Street was also sour after Intel warned that it will badly miss its sales forecast for the current quarter because of the worldwide hard drive shortage caused by massive floods in Thailand. Shares of Intel (INTC, Fortune 500) dropped nearly 5%, making the chipmaker's stock one of the biggest losers among Dow issues.

World markets: European stocks closed sharply lower. Britain's FTSE 100 (UKX) slipped 1.5%, the DAX (DAX) in Germany dropped 3.1% and France's CAC 40 (CAC40) fell 2.3%.

Asian markets ended mixed. The Shanghai Composite (SHCOMP) shed 1%, while the Hang Seng (HSI) in Hong Kong ticked up 0.1% and Japan's Nikkei (N225) rose 1.4%.

Companies: Financial stocks were again in focus as the biggest reactors to European debt concerns. Shares of Citigroup (C, Fortune 500), Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500), Goldman Sachs (GS, Fortune 500) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500) were all down between 3% and 7% Monday.

Netflix's (NFLX) stock spiked 6% on chatter that the company could be acquired by Verizon (VZ, Fortune 500). Netflix's spokesman said the company doesn't comment on rumors or speculation.

Currencies and commodities: The dollar gained strength against the euro, the British pound and the Japanese yen.

Oil for January delivery slipped $1.64 to settle at $97.77 a barrel.

Gold futures for February delivery fell $48.60 to settle at $1,668.20 an ounce.

Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury rose, pushing the yield down to 2.01% from 2.05% late Friday.

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Market Update

4:30 pm : A late bout of buying helped stocks settle above session lows, but the broad market still booked a sizable loss as participants focused on the formidable challenges facing eurozone officials and a disappointing forecast from Intel.

Concerns about the macro picture were revived early this morning. Market participants digested data that indicated China experienced during November a slowdown in export growth, which many regarded as a sign of deceleration in the country that has helped prop up the global economy.

Sentiment in Europe soured as traders shifted their focus from the agreements struck during the eurozone summit to the difficult task of efficiently implementing plans and reaching a consensus on those topics that eluded officials last week. Responding to worries that such processes will continue to slog along without real results, yields on the debt of countries in the eurozone periphery were sent higher. The region's major bourses were also punished by sellers, such that the EuroStoxx 50 fell about 1.6%.

Weakness was exacerbated ahead of the open by a disappointing outlook from Dow component and semiconductor bellwether Intel (INTC 24.00, -1.01). The stock's 4% loss was its worst single-session slide in about 4% and dragged down the rest of the semiconductor space so that the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index shed nearly 3%.

In the face of widespread weakness telecom stocks were able to limit their losses to a collective decline of only 0.3%, which is about one-fifth of what the broad market suffered. In times of volatility, many analysts favor the sector for its stable businesses, strong balance sheets, and hefty dividends. That said, consumer discretionary plays also limited their losses to a collective decline of 0.3%.

Trading volume was paltry this session, coming in below 800 million on the NYSE. That makes for a more muddled picture when trying to assess sentiment since low share volume suggests less participation.

Favor for safety also compelled traders to rotate into the dollar, which gained about 1.2% against a basket of competing currencies by session's end.

Treasuries also traded higher, but the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note had difficulty breaking below 2.00%. Treasuries even had trouble adding to gains after results from an auction of 3-year Notes proved exceptionally strong. The auction drew a bid-to-cover of 3.62, dollar demand of $115.8 billion, and an indirect bidder participation rate of 39.1%. For comparison, an average of the past six auctions results in a bid-to-cover of 3.28, dollar demand of $104.8 billion, and an indirect bidder rate of 38.4%.

Advancing Sectors: (None)
Declining Sectors: Telecom -0.3%, Consumer Discretionary -0.3%, Consumer Staples -0.8%, Utilities -1.0%, Health Care -1.2%, Tech -1.5%, Industrials -1.8%, Materials -2.2%, Energy -2.4%, Financials -2.6%DJ30 -162.87 NASDAQ -34.59 NQ100 -1.1% R2K -1.9% SP400 -1.7% SP500 -18.72 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 635/1.54 bln/1922 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 616/775 mln/2418

3:30 pm : Strength in the dollar, caused by concerns about the euro zone and poor Chinese econ data, pressured commodities throughout the session. Gold ended lower by 2.8% at $1667.60 per ounce, while silver finished off 3.4% at $31.14. Both metals spent the afternoon session trading around near their respective lows, at $1660.30 and $30.92.

Crude oil finished lower by 1.7% at $97.77 per barrel. Futures spent the session trading around the $98 mark, unable to recoup any losses from the overnight sell-off. Natural gas closed down 1.9% at $3.26 per MMBtuDJ30 -194.36 NASDAQ -43.39 SP500 -25.04 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 513/1.2 bln/2030 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 516/466.8 mln/2529

3:00 pm : The Dow is down 200 points and the benchmark 10-year Note is up about a half of a point with just one hour remaining in today's trade. Worth noting, though, is that share volume has actually been lacking, suggestive of a lack of conviction among the collective body of market participants. The lack of participation has NYSE share volume on pace to come well short of 1 billion shares.DJ30 -206.54 NASDAQ -46.53 SP500 -23.53 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 490/1.01 bln/2040 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 450/385 mln/2545

2:30 pm : Telecom stocks make up the only major sector that has managed to limit its loss to less than 1%. In fact, telecom stocks are collectively down by only 0.5%, which is almost a quarter of what the broad market has surrendered. The telecom sector's relative strength stems from investor interest in stable companies with strong balance sheets and hefty dividends, which are widely believed to help offset the risk associated with stock price volatility amid broad market weakness. As such, shares of AT&T (T 29.00, -0.03) are down only a few pennies.DJ30 -215.43 NASDAQ -47.93 SP500 -24.56 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 485/955 mln/2030 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 440/365 mln/2540

2:00 pm : Stocks remain mired near session lows. The pessimistic tone has been present since the open, spurred by skepticism related to the ability of eurozone officials to efficiently implement plans to shore up financial and economic conditions in the precarious region.DJ30 -215.26 NASDAQ -45.45 SP500 -24.52 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 505/870 mln/1990 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 425/335 mln/2545

1:30 pm : Results from an auction of 3-year Notes were recently released. They proved exceptionally strong, but Treasuries really haven't responded to them.

As for specifics, the auction drew a bid-to-cover of 3.62, dollar demand of $115.8 billion, and an indirect bidder participation rate of 39.1%. For comparison, the prior acution produced a bid-to-cover of 3.41, dollar demand of $109.1 billion, and an indirect bidder rate of 38.6%. An average of the past six auctions results in a bid-to-cover of 3.28, dollar demand of $104.8 billion, and an indirect bidder rate of 38.4%. DJ30 -228.78 NASDAQ -48.72 SP500 -26.11 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 480/790 mln/1990 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 415/305 mln/2555

1:00 pm : Market participants have turned to selling stocks upon considering the formidable challenges that still face eurozone officials following last week's eurozone summit. A disappointing forecast from a blue chip has only exacerbated weakness.

Reports from last week's eurozone summit initially generated a positive response, but many traders have expressed skepticism in the ability of eurozone members to efficiently implement plans and reach an agreement on those topics that couldn't be brought to a consensus. The concern that the process will simply continue to slog along without producing real results has sent yield spreads higher on debt from Italy and Spain, and also spurred concerted selling among the region's major bourses.

In addition to concerns about Europe, market participants were dealt some relatively discouraging data from China. Although China experienced export growth during November that exceeded what some had anticipated, the rate of increase was slower than that of the prior month.

As if the macro picture wasn't enough to make investors worrisome, Dow component and semiconductor bellwether Intel (INTC 23.80, -1.21) issued a disappointing outlook this morning that only exacerbated weakness among stocks.

Although Intel's announcement may have implicated other tech issues, financials and energy stocks are actually under the most pressure. Both sectors are down in excess of 3%.

With market participants looking to pare risk, many have rotated into the dollar so as to find safety. That trade has given the greenback a 1.1% gain against a basket of competing currencies.

Treasuries are also faring well today, but the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note has remained right near 2.0% for most of the session. Coming up at any moment are results an auction of 3-year Notes. DJ30 -228.11 NASDAQ -48.41 SP500 -24.97 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 475/725 mln/2000 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 395/280 mln/2550

12:30 pm : The dollar has extended its advance so that it is now up 1.1% against a basket of major foreign currencies. Although the move has the greenback at its highest level of the month, it is only up 0.6% for the year. Meanwhile, the euro is down 1.3% to just below $1.320, which makes for its lowest level since early October. For the year, the euro is down about 1.4%.DJ30 -227.66 NASDAQ -50.01 SP500 -25.87 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 440/670 mln/2005 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 395/265 mln/2545

12:00 pm : The three headline stock indices are now at new session lows. The effort to push stocks lower has been a concerted one, such that declining volume currently outnumbers advancing volume by more than 50-to-1 on the NYSE.

Cyclical plays are under the most pressure. More specifically, both the financial and energy sectors are down 3%. The materials sector is down almost as much. Year to date, the financial sector is down about 20%, energy issues are collectively flat, and materials stocks are down roughly 13%. DJ30 -226.48 NASDAQ -52.04 SP500 -26.18 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 450/560 mln/1965 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 390/225 mln/2510

11:30 am : The Dow is at its lowest level of the day, but the Nasdaq has managed to improve its position. Both Indices have been hurt by Intel (INTC 23.83, -1.18), following the company's disappointing outlook. Even though that announcement has clipped shares of INTC so that they are now on pace for their worst single-session slide in more than two years, the stock is still up more than 13% this year.DJ30 -184.14 NASDAQ -44.16 SP500 -21.94 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 425/490 mln/1980 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 375/200 mln/2520

11:00 am : Stocks continue to trade near session lows. So far, there aren't any signs of a leader that is capable of helping the stock market improve its position.

With market participants inclined to pare risk, defensive-oriented stocks are seeing the least selling pressure. Specifically, telecom, utilities, and consumer staples stocks are down 0.5%, 0.7%, and 0.8%, respectively. DJ30 -160.90 NASDAQ -44.68 SP500 -20.36 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 365/370 mln/1985 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 355/160 mln/2500

10:35 am : Strength in the dollar index and broad market weakness is hitting the commodity complex this morning. The dollar index hit a new session high of 79.36 a short while ago and remains near that level in current activity.

Aluminum futures traded higher, but the rest are in negative territory. Crude oil futures have bee in negative territory all session and just put in a new session low of $97.57/barrel. In current activity, crude is down 1.7% at $97.76/barrel. Natural gas futures are 2.2% lower at $3.25/MMBtu.

Gold was pretty much flat in overnight activity and has steadily declined in morning trade. Gold put in a new session low of $1660.30/oz. a short while ago and is currently 3.2% lower at $1662.60/oz. Silver fell through the $31 level in recent activity and is now down 3.9% at $30.99/oz. DJ30 -174.07 NASDAQ -51.76 SP500 -21.75 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 362/343 mln/1988 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 295/152 mln/2542

10:00 am : Stocks momentarily stabilized after a firmly lower open, but sellers have redoubled their efforts to take the broad market another leg lower. The concerted selling effort has made for widespread weakness and driven up the Volatility Index by about 3%.

Although stocks have descended deeper into negative territory, the dollar hasn't yet added to its advance. As such, it continues to trade sideways with a gain of about 0.9% against a collection of competing currencies. In contrast, Treasuries are gradually ticking higher, such that the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note is now closer to 2.0% on the nose. DJ30 -147.05 NASDAQ -45.23 SP500 -17.77 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 275/105 mln/1910 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 315/63 mln/2380

09:45 am : The major equity averages are all down markedly, but the tech-rich Nasdaq is in the worst shape after Intel (INTC 24.08, -0.93) implicated the semiconductor space by cutting its outlook. The Semiconductor HOLDRs ETF (SMH 29.96, -0.91) is down about 3% in response.

Despite the weakness of the semiconductor and tech space, financials are actually in the worst shape overall. As a group, financials have already fallen 2.0%. Most of that is because large-cap diversified banks and financial services firms like Citigroup (C 27.55, -1.22) have been battered in early action. DJ30 -127.26 NASDAQ -41.02 SP500 -15.88 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -11.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -24.20. Stock futures recently fell to fresh morning lows. The move followed news that Dow component and semiconductor bellwether Intel (INTC 24.26, -0.75) has lowered its outlook. That announcement only exacerbated pre-market weakness, which was initially brought about by some discouraging data from China and a sense of skepticism, and even pessimism, pertaining to Europe's ability to efficiently implement plans made during the eurozone summit late last week.

Concerns about the macro path have implicated commodities, causing the CRB Commodity Index to tumble more than 1% this morning. Weakness in the commodity complex has only intensified with a bounce by the greenback, which is sporting a 0.9% gain against a basket of major foreign currencies as many traders seek its safety.

Note: all ticker quotes reflect premarket prices.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -11.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -22.70. Commodities are being cut down in aggressive fashion, resulting in a 1.1% loss for the CRB Index. Among the more closely tracked commodities, oil prices are presently off by 1.5% at $97.90 per barrel. Meanwhile, natural gas prices are at $3.23 per MMBtu for a 2.6% loss. Precious metals are also under sharp pressure. As such, the price of gold has fallen 2.5% to $1675 per ounce, while silver has been slashed to $31.21 per ounce for a 3.2% loss. In the backdrop, the dollar has advanced 0.9% against a basket of major foreign currencies.

08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -8.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -14.40. The mood stemming from the eurozone summit late last week was optimistic, but a mix of skepticism and cynicism has made many participants take on increasingly pessimistic position. As such, yields on the debt of Italy and Spain, to name a couple of countries, have ticked higher, while many of the region's major bourses have traded lower. Of the more closely tracked equity averages, Germany's DAX is down 1.9%, led lower by the likes of Allianz, Commerzbank, and Deutsche Bank (DB 37.70, -1.90). France's CAC has fallen to a 1.4% loss. Meanwhile, Britain's FTSE is off by 0.7%. Lloyds Group (LYG 1.64, +0.00) and Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS 6.58. -0.35) are among its poorest performers. Spain's IBEX has shed 2.1%. Italy's MIB is down about 2.6%.

Overnight action in Asia was mixed with Japan's Nikkei working its way to a 1.4% gain. Olympus was a leader, but the stock has been very volatile in recent weeks. Trade in Hong Kong was lackluster, leaving the Hang Seng to finish with a fractional loss. Mainland China's Shanghai Composite closed 1.0% lower. Selling was motivated by export data that pointed toward decelerating growth. Natural resource issues fell out of favor, but property plays were hit especially hard by sellers.

Note: all ticker quotes reflect premarket prices.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -6.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -11.40. Declines by Europe's major bourses and rising yields on eurozone debt after last week's summit have prompted pre-market participants to take a pessimistic stance ahead of the open. In turn, stock futures suggest a decidedly lower start to domestic trade.

The mood this morning hasn't been helped by the latest dose of data from China, which reported over the weekend some numbers that suggested growth had decelerated during November.

As a result of the weakened tone, the greenback has garnered considerable interest this morning -- it currently leads a collection of competing currencies by 0.7%. Gold has yet to benefit from any kind of flight to safety, however. The yellow metal was last quoted at $1678 per ounce, which makes for a 2.2% loss. Treasuries are attracting interest, such that the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note is now back to within a couple of basis points of 2.0% on the nose.

Results from an auction of 3-year Notes will be released at 1:00 PM ET. The monthly Treasury Budget makes up the only item on the economic calendar; it is expected at 2:00 PM ET.

06:45 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -5.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -9.40.

06:45 am : Nikkei...8653.82...+117.40...+1.40%. Hang Seng...18575.66...-23.70...-0.10%.

06:45 am : FTSE...5495.88...-33.30...-0.60%. DAX...5905.08...-81.40...-1.40%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

Phone: +1.708.572.4885
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