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 Post subject: December 9th Friday 2011 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +10.80
PostPosted: Fri Dec 09, 2011 9:53 pm 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)

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click on the above image to view today's performance verification

Trade Performance for Today: +10.80 points or $1080 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, all trades were posted real-time in the free #FuturesTrades chat room. Today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs provides details (e.g. time, price, contract size) about each one of my trades from entry to exit along with price action commentary as the trade traversed...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=98&t=1079.

To join our free chat room...registration instructions located at a different forum @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=630

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=146&t=1312

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Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/IMF actions or any important global economic events that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables (key market events) causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that results in swing points and strong continuation price actions. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for my technical analysis. Just as important, these summaries becomes my archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past...something I can not get from my broker statements alone.

U.S. Stocks Rise on Consumer Confidence, Euro Agreement

Dec. 9 (Bloomberg) -- Bloomberg's Deborah Kostroun reports on the performance of the U.S. equity market today. U.S. stocks rose, as the Standard & Poor's 500 Index advanced for the second straight week, after European leaders agreed to boost a rescue fund and American consumer confidence topped estimates.

Stocks Rally On Europe's New Deal

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click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- U.S. stocks rallied Friday after a majority of European leaders agreed on a new deal to try to resolve the eurozone debt crisis.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) added 187 points, or 1.6%. The S&P 500 (SPX) jumped 21 points, or 1.7%. The Nasdaq (COMP) rose 50 points, or 1.9%.

During a meeting in Brussels, Belgium, early Friday, the 17 members of the eurozone -- which share the embattled single currency -- reached a deal for a new intergovernmental treaty to deepen the integration of national budgets.

Six additional EU nations supported the deal, but Britain rejected it. The three remaining EU countries tentatively support the deal, but have yet to secure parliamentary approval. Leaders are aiming to have the plan ready by March.

European and U.S. stocks rallied on the news, ignoring Moody's downgrade of three top French banks: BNP Paribas, Credit Agricole SA and Société Générale.

The U.S. financial sector outperformed the broader market in early trading with Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500), Goldman Sachs (GS, Fortune 500), JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500), Morgan Stanley (MS, Fortune 500) and Wells Fargo (WFC, Fortune 500) up between 1.5% and 4%. The rally in financials helped erase some of the industry's outsize losses from Thursday.

"The market views Europe's deal as a positive step, so the optimistic juices are flowing," said Peter Tuz, president at Chase Investment Counsel. "The hope is that Europe is moving toward a mechanism that will allow for broader European Central Bank involvement, and other tools to solve the financial crisis."

* European summit: Now it's up to the ECB

But, Tuz warned, "the devil will be in the details, and it will take time to implement."

Meanwhile, a Reuters report that China is creating a $300 billion fund to invest in both Europe and the United States could also have lent support to stocks, said Jennifer Lee, an economist with BMO Capital Markets.

U.S. stocks came off losses on Thursday. The stock sell-off accelerated in the last 20 minutes of trading, with all three indexes falling to their lows of the day, after a flurry of headlines put the likelihood of a Europe debt crisis solution into question.

The declines were sparked in part by ECB President Mario Draghi's refusal to commit to offering broad assistance to troubled eurozone countries. Draghi also emphasized "substantial downside risks" for the European economy.

* Like it or not, the euro is doomed

Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner was in Europe this week to meet with top government officials, highlighting the growing concern in Washington about the eurozone debt crisis.

Following the ups and downs, stocks end little changed for the week. The Dow rose 1.4%, while the S&P 500 added 0.9% higher and the Nasdaq edged up 0.8%.
0:00 / 1:43 The euro is saved? Yeah right.

World markets: European stocks ended with solid gains. Britain's FTSE 100 (UKX) ticked up 0.8%, the DAX (DAX) in Germany rose 1.9% and France's CAC 40 (CAC40) added 2.3%.

* China's inflation rate: Lowest since September 2010

Asian markets ended lower, after mixed reports on China's economy showed that inflation cooled in November while industrial production slowed sharply. The Shanghai Composite (SHCOMP) fell 0.6%, the Hang Seng (HSI) in Hong Kong slumped 2.7% and Japan's Nikkei (N225) lost 1.5%.

Economy: The government released its latest trade data for October, showing the U.S. trade deficit dipped slightly to $43.5 billion. The number was in line with estimates, but deeper in the red from the $43.1 billion deficit in the prior month.

The December installment of the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index beat expectations, rising to 67.7 from 64.1 in November. Analysts were expecting a rise to 65.1.

Companies: DuPont (DD, Fortune 500) shares plunged after the chemical maker lowered its forecasts for the year. DuPont CEO Ellen Kullman cited slower growth and global economic uncertainty as reasons for the lower outlook.

General Electric (GE, Fortune 500) shares rose after the company said it is raising its quarterly dividend by 13%. It was the fourth time GE has increased its dividend since July 2010.
0:00 / 1:48 Being a boring investor...and loving it

Currencies and commodities: The dollar fell against the euro, the British pound and the Japanese yen.

Oil for January delivery rose $1.07 to settle at $99.41 a barrel.

Gold for February delivery gained $3.40 to settle at $1,716.80 an ounce.

Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury fell, pushing the yield up to 2.05% from 1.97% late Thursday.

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Market Update

4:30 pm : Stocks closed out the week on a strong note, helping the broad market book another weekly gain. Europe remained the primary topic of trade.

Traders took early cues from Europe, where the region's major bourses bounced because of the focus on news that eurozone officials agreed to tighter fiscal controls and also to make funds available to the International Monetary Fund for use in the rapid deployment of the European Financial Stability Facility, rather than the challenge of establishing changes to the eurozone treaty. Given the dissension and dysfunction that has been displayed so often during recent months, the eurozone summit was generally regarded as a step in the right direction. That helped drive the EuroStoxx 50 more than 1% higher, but the euro only gained 0.2% to end the session at $1.338.

Reports of progress in Europe were complemented by encouraging inflation data from China, which reported sharp declines in both CPI and PPI for November. Domestic data featured the preliminary Consumer Sentiment Survey for December from the University of Michigan. It improved to a six-month high of 67.7.

Equities traded with strength amid the hope that the macro picture might improve because of Europe's efforts to shore up its precarious financial and economic conditions, while cooler inflation in China could mean that the country can curb inflation without sacrificing economic growth.

Although buying was broad based, financials spent most of the session out in front of the rest of the market. The sector settled the session 2.3% higher with help from banking plays and diversified financial institutions.

Industrials were slower in their ascent, but the sector also scored a strong gain of 2.2%. General Electric (GE 16.84, +0.53) was a leader in the space after the conglomerate announced a dividend increase that many took as a sign of confidence in cash flow.

Other corporate news was less encouraging. Both Texas Instruments (TXN 29.94, +0.02) and DuPont (DD 45.04, -1.48) cut their outlooks, but those reports were generally shrugged off by a market that remained fixated on the events in Europe.

The broadly positive bias displayed by stocks stayed intact all session, helping the major equity averages settle the session near their highs. Share volume may have been light, but stocks still cut prior session losses to give the S&P 500 a near 1% weekly gain.

The bounce on Friday helped stocks offset part of the prior session's slide, which was the worst one-day drop for the stock market in about two weeks. To little surprise, that decline was driven by a mosaic of headlines from Europe. Participants were hardly surprised that the European Central Bank (ECB) cut its target lending rate, but there was a negative response to news that the vote was not unanimous and that ECB became more cautious in its economic outlook. The tone certainly wasn't helped by the European Banking Authority report that capital shortfalls increased in their latest stress test.

News that the ECB will extend collateral eligibility to asset-backed securities was overshadowed, as was the latest weekly initial jobless claims tally. Initial jobless claims totaled 381,000, which is less than the 395,000 initial claims had been widely expected.

Mid-week trade kept stocks mired near the neutral line as participants were reminded about the headline risk associated with Europe when it was learned that analysts at S&P were focusing on the European Union's top-notch credit rating. Tuesday trade was lackluster amid an absence of economic data and material corporate announcements.

Action this week began with a solid gain on Monday, when traders took encouragement from a decline in the borrowing costs of Italy and Spain -- a tacit sign of increased confidence in the two countries -- after Italy unveiled a new austerity plan. It was also learned that the ECB intends to inject one trillion euros for use in additional bond buying. Reports that Germany's Merkel and France's Sarkozy were making concerted efforts to lead Europe through its crises were also taken positively, although analysts at S&P put Germany and France on "creditwatch negative," while also placing all 17 euro nations on ratings downgrade watch. Little was made of the November ISM Services Index, which eased to 52.0 from 52.9 in the prior month and failed to meet the Briefing.com consensus estimate of 53.4. DJ30 +186.56 NASDAQ +50.47 NQ100 +1.6% R2K +3.1% SP400 +2.4% SP500 +20.84 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2095/1.64 bln/461 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2581/819 mln/435

3:30 pm : Oil prices overcame early selling pressure to settle pit trade at $99.41 per barrel for a 1.1% gain, but natural gas was never able to shake its weakness. Natural gas prices closed at $3.32 per MMBtu, which makes for a 4.0% loss.

Gold prices eked out a fractional gain to settle at $1717.40 per ounce, but silver had a strong session in which it ascended to $32.29 per ounce for a 2.4% gain. DJ30 +190.99 NASDAQ +52.89 SP500 +21.97 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2060/1.24 bln/475 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2550/500 mln/450

3:00 pm : Stocks have extended their climb to a new session high as they enter the final hour of today's trade. The climb has come with low share volume, however.

Stocks still haven't quite offset losses from the prior session, but the advance has the market back on track for another weekly gain, which currently stands at about 1.0%. That adds to the 7.4% weekly climb staged last week. Prior to that, though, stocks suffered weekly losses of 3.8% and 4.7%, in chronological order. DJ30 +207.03 NASDAQ +55.70 SP500 +23.35 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2060/1.13 bln/460 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2550/455 mln/440

2:30 pm : Stocks have managed to tick higher to set incrementally improved session highs. Financials have been leaders all session, but industrials have caught up with that sector. In turn, both sectors now boast gains of 2.4%. General Electric (GE 16.94, +0.63) has been a leader among industrial issues following the company's decision to increase its quarterly dividend to $0.17 per share from $0.15 per share.DJ30 +196.02 NASDAQ +51.58 SP500 +22.05 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2030/1.06 bln/480 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2510/425 mln/465

2:00 pm : Yesterday's selling effort sent the Volatility Index (VIX) sharply higher so that it cleared 30 for the first time in more than a week. However, an improved mood among market participants today has dropped the VIX for an 11% loss.

With volatility down and stocks in such strong shape, Treasuries have been under pressure all session. As such, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note is comfortably above 2.0%. DJ30 +170.14 NASDAQ +45.92 SP500 +19.46 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2005/980 mln/480 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2480/392 mln/480

1:30 pm : Stocks are testing session highs, but the 1255 line continues to give the S&P 500 trouble. Part of the problem is that the financial sector has lost momentum. That said, though, financials are still sporting a 2.3% gain, which is better than what any other sector has achieved to this point.DJ30 +183.08 NASDAQ +47.90 SP500 +21.11 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1970/910 mln/500 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2455/365 mln/490

1:00 pm : Stocks are sporting impressive gains as participants await updates from the latest eurozone summit, which has overshadowed some disappointing corporate news.

A positive bias this morning was helped by strength among Europe's major bourses and word that members of the eurozone have agreed to tighter fiscal controls and to make funds available to the International Monetary Fund for rapid deployment in the European Financial Stability Facility. There is still no consensus on changes to the eurozone treaty, but many participants have taken the view that officials are making sufficient progress, especially after dissension and dysfunction characterized so many discussions in recent months.

Overnight action in Asia was decidedly weak, but news of cooler inflation in China was regarded by many as an encouraging piece of data.

The preliminary Consumer Sentiment Survey for December from the University of Michigan also provided participants with a positive piece of data. The Survey exceeded expectations by improving to 67.7.

However, Texas Instruments (TXN 29.73, -0.19) and Dow component DuPont (DD 44.63, -1.89) indicated that their economic outlook is blurry to tenuous by trimming their outlooks. That said, conglomerate blue chip General Electric (GE 16.96, +0.65) displayed confidence in its cash flow by announcing a dividend increase.

Financials have been a source of broad market strength since the open, even though analysts at Moody's expressed a pessimistic opinion on some of France's major financial institutions. The sector is currently sporting a gain greater than 2%, but has spent the past couple of hours trending sideways. Its loss of upward momentum has made it harder for the broad market to break free from its afternoon trading range. DJ30 +165.22 NASDAQ +43.05 SP500 +18.83 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1985/850 mln/460 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2460/335 mln/480

12:30 pm : Stocks have stabilized after slipping from session highs. Strength remains broad based, but telecom issues, which are defensive in nature, are having a harder time garnering buying interest. More specifically, telecom plays are up just 0.4%, which isn't even one-third of what the broad market has achieved today.

Integrated telecom giant AT&T (T 28.87, +0.01) is a primary culprit in the telecom sector's lackluster performance this session. The stock has been mired near the neutral line for the past couple of hours, even though peer Verizon (VZ 38.27, +0.46) is sporting a gain in excess of 1%. DJ30 +156.13 NASDAQ +39.58 SP500 +17.86 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1940/755 mln/475 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2420/300 mln/500

12:00 pm : Stocks are sliding off of their session highs. The pullback comes after the S&P 500 encountered resistance at the 1255 line.

Right about the same time that the stock market's ascent began to lose momentum, the dollar started to improve its position. In doing so, the greenback has cut its loss so that it now trails a collection of competing currencies by less than 2%. DJ30 +151.22 NASDAQ +36.20 SP500 +16.84 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1935/680 mln/460 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2410/270 mln/475

11:30 am : Stocks have climbed to fresh session highs, but the advance has yet to fully offset yesterday's loss, which was actually the stock market's worst single-session slide in two weeks. In turn, stocks are still on track for a weekly loss of almost 1%. Of course, that comes after stocks climbed more than 7% during the course of trade last week.DJ30 +172.33 NASDAQ +40.31 SP500 +19.20 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1910/580 mln/435 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2350/230 mln/490

11:00 am : Gains were checked in recent trade, but buyers have shown resolve by reclaiming the points that were surrendered. The effort has taken the broad market back near its best level of the day.

Financials remain out in front, offering the most legitimate form of leadership, given the sector's market weight and the scope of gains scored by the group. Overall, financials are now up in excess of 2%. Investment banks and brokerage plays, diversified financial services outfits, and both regional and diversified banks are showing the most strength. DJ30 +140.01 NASDAQ +32.70 SP500 +15.18 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1790/440 mln/485 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2180/175 mln/610

10:30 am : The dollar index has been trending lower since just after 9am EST, which has caused the CRB Commodity Index to move higher off its session low of 305.91. However, the CRB is still 0.3% lower in current trade.

Crude oil futures were showing some strength in early morning trade and ran as high as $99/barrel (hit just before 7am EST). After consolidating for a short while crude lost steam and declined to a new session low of $97.34/barrel about 10 minutes after pit trading began. In current activity, the energy component is down 0.3% at $98.02/barrel.

Natural gas has been in the red all session. After trading mostly flat in the overnight session, nat gas began a downtrend in early morning trade, which has last all session so far. Natural gas hit a new session low of $3.36/MMBtu minutes ago and is now down 2.8% at $3.36/MMBtu.

Metals are mixed this morning. Aluminum is lost 2.5% to $1930/ton, while precious metals are higher led by silver. Gold hit its current session high of $1727.90/oz four hours ago, but is now down 0.01% at $1712.30/oz. Silver is back below the $32 level and is currently up 1.2% at $31.91/oz.DJ30 +108.04 NASDAQ +20.05 SP500 +11.43 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1732/367 mln/510 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2179/152 mln/600

10:00 am : Stocks began to push higher in the minutes that preceded the release of the preliminary Consumer Sentiment Survey for December from the University of Michigan. The Survey improved to 67.7 from 64.1 in the prior month, exceeding the 65.1 that many economists had projected for December.

Financials have eased back in the past few minutes of trade, but the sector is still up an enviable 1.5%, which keeps it out in front of the broad market. Energy stocks have extended their climb so that the sector is also up 1.5%. DJ30 +115.64 NASDAQ +19.64 SP500 +11.70 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1565/95 mln/445 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2050/58 mln/530

09:45 am : The major equity averages are up with modest gains this morning. Buying has been relatively broad, but financials (+1.7%) and energy issues (+1.2%) are out in front. Both sectors were among those that suffered the harshest beat-downs during the prior session, falling 3.7% and 2.6%, respectively.

Materials stocks continue to contend with selling pressure following the sector's 3.0% slide in the prior session. As a group, materials stocks are down 0.4% this morning. DJ30 +79.24 NASDAQ +9.84 SP500 +8.48 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +6.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +7.20. Stock futures have steadily surrendered their gains this morning, such that a flat start to the session now appears likely. Initial strength came amid reports of progress at the latest eurozone summit. A consensus on every agenda item has reportedly eluded members, but that's not so surprising given the dissension displayed by so many eurozone officials during efforts of the past few months. Corporate news hasn't been anything encouraging, especially with both Texas Instruments (TXN 28.25, -1.67) and DuPont (DD 44.00, -2.52) cutting their outlooks. Data has been limited to an in-line trade deficit number. Coming up, though, is a preliminary monthly survey on consumer sentiment at 9:55 AM ET. Note: all ticker quotes reflect pre-market prices.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +5.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.00. Commodities are generally weaker this morning, resulting in a 0.5% loss for the CRB Index. Among its more closely tracked components, oil prices are down 0.4% to $97.90 per barrel in the opening minutes of pit trade. Meanwhile, natural gas prices are down a much steeper 2.4% at $3.37 per MMBtu. Precious metals are more mixed in that gold was recently priced with a 0.1% loss at $1711 per ounce, while silver sports a 0.8% gain at $31.80 per ounce. In the backdrop, the dollar has made a gradual push into positive territory so that it now leads a collection of competing currencies by about 0.1%.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +8.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +10.00. The trade deficit for October totaled $43.5 billion, which isn't too different than the $44.0 billion deficit that had been expected, on average, among economists polled by Briefing.com. Stock futures, still up solidly over fair value, haven't really reacted to the number. The dollar, down narrowly against a collection of competing currencies, also appears unresponsive to the latest dose of data.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +11.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +13.70. Stocks suffered their worst single-session slide in two weeks yesterday, but the mood of market participants has improved to lift stock futures ahead of today's open. Increased confidence comes amid reports that members of the latest eurozone summit have agreed to tighter fiscal controls, although there is still no consensus on changes to the eurozone treaty. The news has been positive enough to boost many of Europe's major bourses to gains greater than 1%. Corporate news flow is sluggish, but last night Texas Instruments (TXN 28.56, -1.36) trimmed its outlook. Dow component DuPont (DD 44.00, -2.52) also announced a cut to its forecast. The announcements have dropped the stocks sharply in pre-market trade -- those pre-market prices are quoted here. The economic calendar remains relatively light with monthly trade data due at 8:30 AM ET and a preliminary consumer sentiment survey for December from the University of Michigan will be posted at 9:55 AM ET.

06:20 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +11.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +17.00.

06:20 am : Nikkei...8536.46...-128.10...-1.50%. Hang Seng...18586.23...-521.60...-2.70%.

06:20 am : FTSE...5515.55...+31.80...+0.60%. DAX...5959.31...+83.30...+1.40%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

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