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 Post subject: December 8th Thursday 2011 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +7.30
PostPosted: Fri Dec 09, 2011 12:00 am 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)

Attachment:
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click on the above image to view today's performance verification

Trade Performance for Today: +7.30 points or $730 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, all trades were posted real-time in the free #FuturesTrades chat room. Today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs provides details (e.g. time, price, contract size) about each one of my trades from entry to exit along with price action commentary as the trade traversed...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=98&t=1078.

To join our free chat room...registration instructions located at a different forum @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=630

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=146&t=1312

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Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/IMF actions or any important global economic events that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables (key market events) causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that results in swing points and strong continuation price actions. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for my technical analysis. Just as important, these summaries becomes my archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past...something I can not get from my broker statements alone.

S&P Sinks 2% On EU Worries

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click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- U.S. stocks slipped Thursday as anxiety was high ahead of a crucial summit aimed at resolving the European debt crisis.

The stock sell-off accelerated in the last 20 minutes of trading, with all three indexes falling to their lows of the day, after a flurry of headlines put the likelihood of a debt crisis solution into question.

U.S. stocks were down throughout the day after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi refused to commit to offering broad assistance to troubled eurozone countries and emphasized "substantial downside risks" for the European economy.

Still according to market participants, much of Thursday's trading was maneuvering to bet on what EU leaders might accomplish during their meeting Friday to decide whether the countries will agree to closer political and economic coordination.

"Tomorrow could be one of the most important days in global markets," said Uri Landesman, president of the hedge fund Platinum Partners. "Nobody is insulated from the European Union."

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) ended the day down 199 points, or 1.6%. The S&P 500 (SPX) closed with a 27 point drop, or 2.1%. The Nasdaq (COMP) slid 53 points, or 2%. The S&P and Nasdaq dropped back into negative territory for the year.

Financial stocks cratered too. Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500), Citigroup (C, Fortune 500), Goldman Sachs (GS, Fortune 500), Morgan Stanley (MS, Fortune 500) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500) were all down between 3% and 9%.

"European Union troubles disproportionately affect financials," said Sal Catrini, equity product manager at Cantor Fitzgerald. "Banks have led this rally since Thanksgiving, so it's no surprise that when the market pulls back, they pull back further."

News reports ahead of the market close made U.S. investors that much more fearful going into tomorrow's trading day.

The declines once again reinforce the belief among investors that what happens in Europe can overshadow even continuing positive economic news out of the US or other economies. Investors ignored another round of positive US job numbers released Thursday morning.

Investors also shrugged off news that the European Central Bank cut its key interest rate by a quarter-percentage point Thursday morning, to 1%. The central bank was widely expected to cut its rates by up to 0.5%, as the risk of a broad recession in Europe continues to rise.

"The ECB took positive steps today," said Landesman. "Then this genius comes out and puts a damper on the whole thing. Why bother?"
Europe's mission 'hardly' accomplished

Draghi dashed hopes -- at least in the near-term -- that the ECB would be likely to extend its reach to buy bonds of troubled European nations including Spain, Italy, and Portugal.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner is in Europe all week to meet with top government officials, highlighting the growing concern in Washington about the eurozone debt crisis.
0:00 / 2:12 Do you want a rate cut with that?

U.S. stocks ended mostly higher Wednesday, as investors bet that European leaders will produce a meaningful solution to the debt crisis. But trading has been choppy this week, turning mainly on rumors about what the politicians may or may not announce after the summit.

Economy: The U.S. government reported Thursday that the number of people filing for initial unemployment benefits fell to a 9-month low of 381,000 in the latest week.

The news initially boosted markets ahead of the open, as jobless claims for the week ending December 3 were expected to hit 395,000, according to a survey of analysts by Briefing.com.
European banks get a reality check

Wholesale inventories for the month of October came in higher-than-expected at 1.6%. Economists had predicted an 0.2% increase, after contracting by 0.1% the month prior.

World markets: European stocks closed lower. Britain's FTSE 100 (UKX) fell 1.1%, the DAX (DAX) in Germany lost 2.0% and France's CAC 40 (CAC40) moved down 2.5%.

Asian markets ended lower. The Shanghai Composite (SHCOMP) fell 0.1%, the Hang Seng (HSI) in Hong Kong dropped 0.7% and Japan's Nikkei (N225) fell 0.7%

Companies: Shares of Ford (F, Fortune 500) declined after the automaker announced a surprise quarterly dividend of 5 cents a share.

After weeks of speculation about how more than a billion dollars in customer money went missing at MF Global, former CEO Jon Corzine gave his side of the story on Capitol Hill Thursday.

"I simply do not know where the money is, or why the accounts have not been reconciled to date," Corzine said in a prepared statement to Congress. "I sincerely apologize, both personally and on behalf of the company, to our customers, our employees and our investors, who are bearing the brunt of the impact of the firm's bankruptcy."

Shares of discount retailer Costco (COST, Fortune 500) dropped after the company released quarterly results before the opening bell Thursday that missed analysts' expectations. The company reported earnings of 73 cents a share. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expected earnings of 80 cents a share.

Meat producer Smithfield Foods (SFD, Fortune 500) shares fell despite beating analysts' expectations, posting earnings of 76 cents a share.
0:00 / 02:28 OPEC head: We're OK with $100 oil

Currencies and commodities: The dollar gained strength against the euro, the British pound and Japanese yen.

Oil for December delivery fell $2.48 to $98.01 a barrel.

Gold futures for February delivery dropped $31.80 to $1,713.00 an ounce.

Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury was little changed, with the yield falling below 2%.

Image

Market Update

4:30 pm : Market participants displayed their bearish side by driving stocks down to weekly lows following a flurry of headlines from Europe. Some relief was offered in the final hour, but sellers redoubled their efforts.

News that the latest initial jobless claims tally declined to 381,000, which is less than the 395,000 initial claims that had been broadly expected, helped strengthen sentiment ahead of the open. Participants were hardly surprised by the European Central Bank (ECB) decision to lower its main refinancing operations rate to 1.00% from 1.25% and also trim the rate on its marginal lending facility to 1.75% from 2.00%, but buying was further bolstered by the ECB's move to extend collateral eligibility to asset-backed securities.

Buying interest was checked before the opening bell, though. The shift in sentiment was spurred by news that the ECB has turned more cautious in its economic outlook and that the vote to reduce interest rates was not unanimous. The proof of dissension among Europe's leading policy makers made many participants skeptical of the ability of officials at the eurozone summit, which is scheduled to conclude tomorrow, to progress in their efforts to overcome persistently precarious economic and financial conditions.

Also out today, the European Banking Authority's stress test results determined that bank recapitalization needs increased since a series of test results were issued in October. German banks were hit with especially stiff selling pressure following the report.

Amid the messy mosaic of eurozone headlines and a weaker picture of European banks, stocks were left to descend steadily throughout the session. In the closing minutes stocks tried to trim losses in conjunction with headlines that suggested a banking license may be tied to the eurozone bailout fund so as to allow direct bank recapitalization, but buying was quickly countered by sellers who were only stopped by the closing bell.

Advancing Sectors: (None)
Declining Sectors: Consumer Staples -1.0%, Utilities -1.5%, Tech -1.5%, Health Care -1.8%, Telecom -1.8%, Consumer Discretionary -2.0%, Industrials -2.3%, Energy -2.6%, Materials -3.0%, Financials -3.7%DJ30 -198.67 NASDAQ -52.83 NQ100 -1.6% R2K -3.1% SP400 -2.6% SP500 -26.66 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 363/1.82 bln/2171 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 405/930 mln/2600

3:30 pm : It was another headline driven session for commodities. An ECB rate cut, coupled with comments from ECB head Mario Draghi, caused for volatile trade in gold, silver and crude oil. Gold, which settled lower by 1.9% at $1712.30 per ounce, sold off sharply in morning trade and continued its sell-off throughout the session. Futures put in lows at $1707.80 and ended just above those levels. Silver closed down 3.2% at $31.59 per ounce. Similar to trade in gold, silver sold off sharply in morning trade and extended that pullback through the day, closing just above lows at $31.43.

Crude oil settled lower by 2.1% at $98.34 per barrel. Futures found support at their 20 day-ema around $98.40 and spent the majority of the session bouncing around that level. Natural gas rallied sharply following the release of this morning's inventory data, which showed a larger-than-expected draw down. Futures traded as high as $3.55, but began pulling back from those highs soon afterwards. Natural gas ended higher by 1% at $3.54 per MMBtu.DJ30 -121.66 NASDAQ -32.15 SP500 -24.14 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 452/1.4 bln/2048 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 456/576.3 mln/2592

3:00 pm : Only an hour remains in today's trade and stocks are at their lowest level of the session. As things currently stand, the stock market is on pace for its worst single-session slide since a 2.2% drop a couple of weeks ago.

Negativity today has the Volatility Index back above 30 for the first time in a week. It took a move of more than 6% to get VIX to that level. DJ30 -161.96 NASDAQ -41.61 SP500 -22.49 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 405/1.21 bln/2075 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 380/495 mln/2605

2:30 pm : Bearish sentiment has stocks stuck near session lows and declining share volume outnumbering advancing volume by more than 25-to-1. The mood among market participants has been negative since the open.

In the face of all the weakness, shares of apparel retailer Pacific Sunwear (PSUN 1.55, +0.20) are up about 15%, which is actually less than half of the gain that it had sported when the stock spiked to a multi-month high in the early going. The stock's strength comes after the company reported last evening quarterly earnings results, the completion of a $100 million revolving credit facility, and plans to close approximately 200 underperforming stores. DJ30 -147.74 NASDAQ -36.03 SP500 -19.83 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 415/1.11 bln/2050 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 380/450 mln/2600

2:00 pm : Down 0.7%, consumer staples stocks make up the only sector that has managed to limit its loss to less than 1%. Colgate-Palmolive (CL 90.73, -0.47) and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ 64.05, -0.40) are both in the red, but each has done a relatively good job of resisting the efforts of sellers.

Financial stocks are at the other end of the spectrum. The sector is contending with a 3.0% loss as market participants sour on various banking plays, insurance issues, and specialized finance outfits. DJ30 -148.53 NASDAQ -35.67 SP500 -19.73 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 405/1.00 bln/2050 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 380/415 mln/2595

1:30 pm : Stocks recently slid to a new session low, which also makes for a new weekly low. The market's inability to build on last week's 7% climb comes after the S&P 500 struggled to overcome resistance at its 200-day moving average. Stocks are still comfortably above their 50-day moving average, however.DJ30 -162.72 NASDAQ -38.85 SP500 -21.03 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 420/945 mln/2030 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 375/375 mln/2575

1:00 pm : Stocks are trading near session lows with sizable losses. Sellers have been in control since the start of trade.

There was a positive response during pre-market trade to news that weekly initial jobless claims declined from 404,000 to 381,000, which is less than the 395,000 initial claims that had been generally expected. Morning buying interest was also bolstered by news that the European Central Bank (ECB) will extend collateral eligibility to asset-backed securities in addition to trimming its primary lending rate.

However, sentiment soured when it was learned that the ECB now expects weaker economic activity and that there was dissension related to the latest interest rate vote. That downer comes amid a looming eurozone summit, which is expected to conclude tomorrow. Stocks started trade in the red and have spent the session gradually descending toward weekly lows.

Against the backdrop of a messy eurozone mosaic, participants have been unimpressed by results from the stress tests held by the European Banking Authority. Their weakness has exacerbated pressure against domestic financials, which are currently contending with a collective loss of 2.8%. DJ30 -132.33 NASDAQ -28.67 SP500 -17.45 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 455/855 mln/1960 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 400/340 mln/2535

12:30 pm : The financial sector is now down nearly 3%. Many european financial issues are under even sharper pressure amid the release of stress test results issued by the European Banking Authority. Deutsche Bank (DB 37.76, -2.59), Credit Suisse (CS 23.88, -1.38), and Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS 6.55, -0.51) are among the poorest performers in the pack.DJ30 -117.01 NASDAQ -25.78 SP500 -16.29 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 475/775 mln/1910 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 425/310 mln/2500

12:00 pm : The stock market recently extended its slide, but it has been able to recoup a couple of points since then. Stocks continue to be burdened by a lack of leadership, which has been a recurring theme this week.

With stocks under steady pressure today Treasuries have attracted buying interest from safety seekers. In turn, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note is now back beneath 2.00% for the first time in a week. DJ30 -117.92 NASDAQ -22.87 SP500 -15.97 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 480/690 mln/1885 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 400/275 mln/2515

11:30 am : Stocks recently fell to fresh session lows, putting the S&P 500 back near the bottom end of this week's trading range. The broad market is now flat for the week. Of course, the sideways chop follows last week's 7% advance, which was the best weekly performance for the broad market in more than three years.DJ30 -120.04 NASDAQ -24.68 SP500 -16.28 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 445/580 mln/1885 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 425/225 mln/2460

11:00 am : The major equity averages have been pushed deeper into negative territory, making for marked losses. Weakness is widespread, but financials continue to lead the slide -- the sector is now down in excess of 2%.

Amid the market's weakness and a negative response to comments made during the European Central Bank press conference this morning, the Dollar Index has pushed up to a 0.6% gain. The move more than offsets weakness in the dollar earlier this week, giving the greenback a weekly gain of about 0.3%. DJ30 -86.96 NASDAQ -18.82 SP500 -12.94 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 490/475 mln/1800 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 480/180 mln/2365

10:35 am : Commodities are mostly down across the board again with a select few in positive territory, while the dollar index remains near its session high of 78.84. Just after 8:30am EST, the dollar index began to rally from its session low at the time of 78.11, which caused the CRB Commodity Index to sell off.

In the energy space, natural gas was trading at the current session high of $3.46/MMBtu just ahead of inventory data. Following the data, which showed a draw of 20 bcf vs. expectations of a draw of 10 bcf, nat gas spiked to a new session high and is now up 2.5% at $3.51/MMBtu.

Crude oil was modestly higher overnight, but gained some steam just after 8am EST and ran as high as $101.73/barrel. However, the energy component quickly reversed after hitting that level, largely on strength in the dollar index, and fell over $3.00/barrel (or 3%) over the next hour and a half. Crude just hit a new session low of $98.40/barrel and is currently down 1.7% at $98.80/barrel.

Precious metals are lower, led by silver. Both gold and silver also sold off this morning on the strong move in the dollar index, which caused gold to fall as far as $1711.70/oz. Silver hit a new session low of $31.48/oz about 15 minutes ago. Currently, gold is down 1.3% at $1722.20/oz and silver is 2.4% lower at $31.83/oz.DJ30 -65.96 NASDAQ -18.66 SP500 -11.32 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 471/427 mln/1812 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 446/168 mln/2383

10:00 am : Stocks continue to trade in negative territory. Overall, losses remain relatively modest.

There hasn't been any real reaction to the latest wholesale inventory numbers, which showed a 1.6% increase when a 0.2% increase had been broadly expected. DJ30 -44.47 NASDAQ -10.78 SP500 -7.96 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 440/125 mln/1610 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 420/60 mln/2240

09:45 am : Stocks are down in the opening minutes of trade. Pressure is broad based, but financials are suffering the most. As a group, financials have already fallen to a 1.7% loss. The steep slide comes after the sector scored an outsized gain of 1.2% in the prior session.

Tech is showing early stability, however. The sector has managed to lift itself out of the red and into positive territory for a fractional gain. Tech stocks collectively make up the largest sector by market weight. DJ30 -34.66 NASDAQ -7.25 SP500 -6.87 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -6.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -14.20. Stock futures bounced off of the flat line in response to news that weekly initial jobless claims declined by a greater degree than what had been broadly expected and news that the European Central Bank (ECB) will attempt to ease monetary policy by trimming its primary lending rate. The ECB also announced that it aims to enhance liquidity by extending collateral eligibility to asset-backed securities. However, sentiment soured shortly after it was learned that there was dissension among voting members of the ECB and that the group became more cautious in its outlook for economic growth.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -6.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -15.90. The initial response to comments from European Central Bank (ECB) President Draghi was positive, but that has proved to be more of a knee-jerk reaction among domestic traders since stock futures have reversed back to the flat line. Europe's bourses have also slipped. Although the ECB has lowered its main refinancing operations rate to 1.00% from 1.25% and trimmed the rate on its marginal lending facility to 1.75% from 2.00%, the vote to do so was not unanimous, reflecting dissension in the group. The ECB also took a more cautious stance on its economic outlook, but announced its intent to extend collateral eligibility to asset-backed securities so as to enhance liquidity. The Bank of England also recently wrapped up its latest meeting, but opted to keep its benchmark lending rate at 0.50%. Its asset purchase program also remains unaltered. Britain's FTSE is now flat after it had been up almost 1% earlier. Energy issues have been a heavy drag. France's CAC has fallen to a 0.5% loss amid weakness in Societe Generale and a host of other stocks. Germany's DAX is now down 0.7%. Commerzbank has been aggressively cut down. A major event still on the calendar is the outcome of a summit of eurozone officials at the tail end of this week.

Overnight action in Asia was generally weak with both Japan's Nikkei and Hong Kong's Hang Seng shedding 0.7%. Japan's Nikkei was weakened by the likes of Panasonic, Nikon, and Sumco. Tokyo Electric Power also proved to be a heavy drag. The Hang Seng was hurt by a steep slide by Li & Fung. Mainland China saw its Shanghai Composite close just 0.1% lower.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +10.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +17.70. Stock futures have ticked higher following the latest initial jobless tally. Comments from the early minutes of the European Central Bank's press conference are also helping to improve the mood among morning participants. Initial jobless claims for the week ended December 3 totaled 381,000, which is less than the 395,000 initial claims that had been expected, on average, among economists polled by Briefing.com. The latest initial claims count is also down by 23,000 from the prior week's tally. Separately, the ECB has unveiled plans to enhance monetary policy and liquidity measures, including an extension of collateral eligibility to asset-backed securities.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +1.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.50. Stock futures are essentially flat this morning. The listlessness follows two straight sessions of generally lackluster trade. A press conference is scheduled for 8:30 AM ET, so for now pre-market participants are assessing the decision by the European Central Bank (ECB) to lower its main refinancing operations rate to 1.00% from 1.25% and also trim the rate on its marginal lending facility to 1.75% from 2.00%. The ECB's announcements precede the outcome of a summit of eurozone officials at the tail end of this week. Only a dearth of economic data has been unveiled this week. Today's calendar is limited to the latest weekly initial jobless claims tally (8:30 AM ET) and monthly wholesale trade numbers (10:00 AM ET). Corporate news continues to be of little consequence to the overall market.

06:30 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -0.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.40.

06:30 am : Nikkei...8664.58...-57.60...-0.70%. Hang Seng...19107.81...-132.80...-0.70%.

06:30 am : FTSE...5552.72...+5.80...+0.10%. DAX...5992.89...-3.00...0.00.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

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