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 Post subject: December 5th Monday 2011 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +23.20
PostPosted: Mon Dec 05, 2011 8:11 pm 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)

Attachment:
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click on the above image to view today's performance verification

Trade Performance for Today: +23.20 points or $2320 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, all trades were posted real-time in the free #FuturesTrades chat room. Today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs provides details (e.g. time, price, contract size) about each one of my trades from entry to exit along with price action commentary as the trade traversed...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=98&t=1074.

To join our free chat room...registration instructions located at a different forum @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=630

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=146&t=1312

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Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/IMF actions or any important global economic events that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables (key market events) causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that results in swing points and strong continuation price actions. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for my technical analysis. Just as important, these summaries becomes my archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past...something I can not get from my broker statements alone.

Stock Rally Fizzles On Talk Of Eurozone Downgrade Warning

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click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- U.S. stocks rose Monday but finished below their highest levels of the day, as investors turned cautious following reports that Standard and Poor's may put eurozone nations on notice for possible downgrades.

After rising about 1.5% earlier in the trading day, all three major indexes trimmed those gains. The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) finished up 78 points, or 0.7%, the S&P 500 (SPX) added 13 points, or 1% and Nasdaq (COMP) rose 29 points, or 1.1%.

Bank stocks were among the biggest winners, with JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500) and Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) posting the best gains on the Dow. Shares of Citigroup (C, Fortune 500), Morgan Stanley (MS, Fortune 500) and Goldman Sachs (GS, Fortune 500) also also gained ground.

The morning's optimism began to fade after a report in the Financial Times suggested that Standard and Poor's wuld put Germany, France, the Netherlands, Austria, Finland and Luxembourg -- all AAA-rated members of the eurozone -- on "creditwatch negative," meaning that the countries have a 50% chance of being downgraded within 90 days.

* S&P Puts 15 Eurozone Governments on Notice

Following Monday's closing bell, S&P placed 15 out of 17 eurozone members on review for a possible downgrade. The day's action did not affect Greece, whose current rating reflects high risk of default, or the Republic of Cyprus, which was already on watch.

Stocks started what could be a pivotal week for Europe's debt crisis on a more positive note, as the prospects of an end to the debt saga grew after the leaders of France and Germany agreed on a new fiscal pact that they say will prevent another debt crisis.

* France and Germany outline fiscal pact

French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel met Monday morning in Paris and agreed on a new pact they say will enforce fiscal discipline in the eurozone and prevent another debt crisis in the future.

Sarkozy and Merkel said they would like all 27 members of the European Union to adopt the pact, which would require amending or rewriting existing EU treaties.

Sarkozy outlined the basic elements of the pact, which he said will be presented in detail at the EC meeting later this week.

As the European debt crisis continues to cloud global markets, the region's leaders are meeting throughout the week, which culminates with a two-day European Council summit to talk about rewriting European Union treaties.

"This week will likely see either an agreement to bind Eurozone nations' fiscal policies together with irrevocable, enforceable institutions or the beginning of the end for the single currency," said Brian Dolan, chief currency strategist at Forex.com.

While European leaders and policymakers have left investors disappointed time and time again, Dolan said "they must recognize by now that markets have run out of patience."

Investors are optimistic that if European leaders stay on the track toward a fiscal union, European Central Bank president Mario Draghi will follow through with the "other elements" he hinted at last week, said Dolan.

If European leaders can see eye to eye on the details of a fiscal pact, "the ECB seems prepared to provide interim support to EU debt markets, likely forestalling an immediate confidence and liquidity crisis," said Dolan.

Stocks logged robust gains last week after the Federal Reserve and ECB said they will work with other top central banks to support the global economy.

The Dow rallied 7% -- its biggest weekly gain since July 2009; while the S&P 500 climbed 7.4% -- its best weekly performance since March 2009. The Nasdaq rose 7.6%, delivering its second-best weekly rise this year.

World markets: On Monday, Italy's new prime minister, Mario Monti, presented a budget proposal for €30 billion ($41 billion) in new taxes and spending cuts over two years. The proposal, which includes reductions to future pensions, is aimed at ending a budget crisis that has clouded the future of Europe's common currency.

The news pushed the yield on the 10-year Italian bond below 6% Monday. For weeks, the 10-year yield has been stuck around the uncomfortable 7% mark.

* Italian bonds get a break

European stocks finished with modest gains. Britain's FTSE 100 (UKX) edged up 0.4%, the DAX (DAX) in Germany rose 0.6% and France's CAC 40 (CAC40) added 1.4%.

After European markets closed, the International Monetary Fund's board said it had approved a €2.2. billion loan disbursement to Greece as part of a 3-year IMF-EU bailout package.

Asian markets ended mixed. The Shanghai Composite (SHCOMP) fell 1.6%, while the Hang Seng (HSI) in Hong Kong ticked up 0.7% and Japan's Nikkei (N225) rose 0.6%.

* Video - Making the case for eurobonds

Economy: Factory orders for the month of October are slipped 0.4%, as expected by economists surveyed by Briefing.com.

November's ISM Non-Manufacturing Index fell to 52 in November, from 52.9 the prior month. Economists were expecting a reading of 53.4.

Companies: Shares of SuccessFactors Inc. (SFSF) surged after German software maker SAP (SAP) agreed to buy the company for $3.4 billion in cash. Shares of Taleo (TLEO), SuccessFactors' rival, also spiked.

Dollar General's (DG, Fortune 500) stock edged higher after the company's quarterly profit topped expectations. The retailer also raised its guidance for the year.

Shares of Taiwanese phone maker HTC were down sharply ahead of a ruling on a key Apple patent suit. On Tuesday, a six-member panel at the International Trade Commission in Washington will rule on whether HTC's phones had violated two Apple (AAPL, Fortune 500) patents.

Currencies and commodities: The dollar fell against the euro, British pound and the Japanese yen.

Oil for January delivery rose 3 cents to settle at $100.99 a barrel.

Gold futures for February delivery fell $15.80 to settle at $1,735.50 an ounce.

Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury was lower, pushing the yield up to 2.05% from 2.04% late Friday.

Image

Market Update

4:15 pm : The U.S. markets started the day with substantial gains and held steady for most of the day, but afternoon headlines regarding the potential for negative European outlook revisions from Standard & Poors knocked the wind out of stocks.

This morning, stocks began the day with gains alongside strength in European markets as borrowing costs declined sharply in Italy and Spain. This activity followed news Italy unveiled a new austerity plan and reports that the ECB is preparing an injection of EUR1 trillion for the EU through additional bond buying. Then encouraging headlines about agreement between Germany's Merkel and France's Sarkozy helped markets add to their gains after the open.

However, this afternoon the major market averages pared their gains after headlines indicated that S&P was placing Germany and France on ‘creditwatch negative.' This knocked equities back from their highs, and then another headline that S&P will place all 17 Euro nations on ratings downgrade watch sent markets to fresh lows.

Outside of the macro headlines, today's news flow was relatively light. Before the open, it was announced that SuccessFactors (SFSF 29.44, +1.66) would be acquired by SAP for $40.00 per share in cash, representing a 52% premium over its Dec 2 closing price and an enterprise value of ~$3.4 bln.

In economic news, the ISM Services Index for November came in at 52.0, which is down slightly from the 52.9 that was posted in the prior month. It also failed to meet the Briefing.com consensus estimate of 53.4. Factory orders fell 0.4% during October, just as had been expected by those economists surveyed by Briefing.com. Orders for the prior month were revised downward to reflect a 0.1% decline.DJ30 +78.41 NASDAQ +28.83 SP500 +12.80 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1754/1.75 bln/778 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2377/893 mln/686

3:30 pm : Gold ended lower by 0.9% at $1734.60 per ounce. Futures attempted to recoup morning losses but failed to break above the unchanged mark. They spent the afternoon session giving back that bounce and closed near levels seen in overnight trade. Reports that has warned Germany and the five other triple A members of the eurozone that they risk having their top-notch ratings downgraded as a result of deepening economic and political turmoil in the single currency bloc, have rallied the dollar and pressured gold, and silver, to fresh lows. Silver ended off 0.9% at $32.37 per ounce. Silver slowly gave back its morning gains to end in negative territory on the day.

Crude oil ended near unchanged at $100.99 per barrel. Futures sold off sharply on the back of the dollar rebound –spurred by the report about S&P’s warning. They put in lows at $100.24 but managed to bounce off those lows ahead of the close. Natural gas ended lower by 3.4% at $3.46 per MMBtu. Futures were weighed on by mild early-week weather.DJ30 +26.94 NASDAQ +18.70 SP500 +8.61 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1604/1.3 bln/945 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2191/599.9 mln/848

3:00 pm : Stocks head into the final hour of the session sporting a 1% gain. Although that's impressive in itself, it's almost half of the heady gain displayed by the broad market earlier this afternoon. The retreat came from a negative reaction to the notion that Europe's AAA-rated countries could face a downgrade from analysts at S&P. That story also sent the euro lower, leaving it to trade with a narrow loss against the greenback.

Share volume hasn't been very impressive at all today. With just 60 minutes remaining in trade, barely a half billion shares have traded hands on the NYSE. The lack of participation suggests that there hasn't been a great deal of conviction among market participants overall. DJ30 +70.99 NASDAQ +27.77 SP500 +12.38 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1680/1.13 bln/840 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2325/500 mln/665

2:30 pm : The dollar has managed to trim its loss, but has yet to poke into positive territory. Its upward move comes in conjunction with the euro's retreat, which coincided with word that analysts at S&P warned that the countries in the eurozone with AAA ratings could face a downgrade because of economic and political turmoil in the region. The euro is now down to $1.339, which makes for a 0.1% loss, after it had spent most of the session sporting a strong gain.DJ30 +70.69 NASDAQ +26.62 SP500 +12.38 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1730/1.05 bln/790 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2350/455 mln/645

2:00 pm : A barrage of sudden selling pressure has forced stocks to session lows. The downturn comes after participants received word that analysts at S&P warned Germany and the other AAA-rated eurozone countries that they are at risk of losing their top-notch ratings because of economic and political turmoil. Although that possibility isn't anything that hasn't already been considered by most traders, it comes after stocks had already displayed an inability to overcome resistance at the 200-day moving average. Thus, the headline has provided an excuse for some participants to pocket profits.DJ30 +83.97 NASDAQ +32.84 SP500 +14.36 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1910/920 mln/615 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2530/390 mln/455

1:30 pm : Stocks recently stretched up to an incrementally improved session high, but they were unable to sustain the move. That has left them to drift back to earlier trading ranges just beneath the broad market's 200-day moving average. In the last four months the stock market has settled above the key technical line on only a few occasions. Each time its stay there was brief.DJ30 +138.20 NASDAQ +43.03 SP500 +20.08 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1900/860 mln/600 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2525/370 mln/460

1:00 pm : Building on last week's advance, which was the stock market's strongest in more than three years, stocks are up sharply today.

The S&P 500 is trading alongside its 200-day moving average after successfully extending an opening gain that was brought about by strength abroad, where a positive response was made to word that the Eurozone Central Bank may be considering injecting 1 trillion euros for bond purchases and reports that Italy has introduced new austerity measures. In addition to Europe's efforts to shore up conditions in the region, many participants are also chasing the heady gains that were had during last week's trade.

Financials have been a primary driver of today's advance. The sector has climbed to a 3.0% gain with help from diversified financial services stocks. Banking plays are also garnering strong buying interest, giving the BKW Bank Index a 3.0% gain of its own.

Tech stocks have also been strong. The largest sector by market weight is now up 2.0%. Energy plays are collectively sporting similar gains.

Data has had little sway with traders today, but still worth noting is that the ISM Services Index for November came in at 52.0. It had been generally expected to improve to 53.4. Factory orders for October fell 0.4%, but that had been expected. DJ30 +154.13 NASDAQ +47.12 SP500 +22.03 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1865/765 mln/610 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2510/330 mln/445

12:30 pm : The major market averages continue to drift along sideways, only narrowly below their best levels of the day. However, financials have managed to make a modest move higher so that they now reside at fresh session highs. Financials are now up nearly 3%, collectively.

Consumer staples stocks continue to crawl along, claiming only modest strength. The sector is up just 0.5%. Other defensive oriented sectors are in better shape. Specifically, health care stocks are up 0.9%, while both the utilities sector and the telecom sector are up 1.2%. DJ30 +135.63 NASDAQ +41.47 SP500 +19.38 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1830/625 mln/615 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2505/280 mln/430

12:00 pm : Nearly 90 minutes ago the S&P 500 came in contact with its 200-day moving average, but was unable to push past that point. Since then, stocks have eased only a couple of points lower and drifted sideways in a relatively tight range.DJ30 +138.77 NASDAQ +40.93 SP500 +18.91 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1830/620 mln/610 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2505/270 mln/430

11:30 am : Stocks have slipped some in recent trade, but overall the major equity averages continue to sport strong gains.

The generally steady strength has kept Treasuries down, such that the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note remains near its monthly high of about 2.10%.

The dollar has also been under pressure, although not terribly so. It currently trails a collection of competing currencies by about 0.4%. DJ30 +147.39 NASDAQ +39.84 SP500 +19.45 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1825/505 mln/600 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2510/230 mln/380

11:00 am : The S&P 500 recently came in contact with its 200-day moving average near 1265, but has been unable to push past the key technical line.

Financials remain a primary backer of today's bounce. Currently, they collectively sport a 2.6% gain, which is better than what any other sector has achieved this session. The financial sector's bounce today builds on the 9.5% weekly gain that it just registered. That made for the sector's strongest weekly showing in more than two years. DJ30 +143.84 NASDAQ +41.55 SP500 +19.79 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1770/290 mln/535 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2500/145 mln/300

10:30 am : The major equity averages are adding to their early gains, resulting in new morning highs for stocks.

Commodities remain mixed, though. Specifically, oil prices are up 1.2% at $102.20 per barrel, which is little changed from where they opened pit trade, but natural gas prices have extended their opening slide so that they now trade with a 2.9% loss at $3.48 per MMBtu.

As for precious metals, gold is still wrestling with modest selling pressure that has left prices at $1749 per ounce, which makes for a 0.1% loss. Silver prices have managed to add to their morning gains by working their way up to $33 per ounce for a 0.9% gain. DJ30 +163.86 NASDAQ +43.90 SP500 +21.96 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1770/290 mln/535 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2500/145 mln/300

10:00 am : A couple of doses of data have just been released, but stocks haven't really reacted to either.

The ISM Services Index for November came in at 52.0, which is down slightly from the 52.9 that was posted in the prior month. It also failed to meet the Briefing.com consensus estimate of 53.4.

Factory orders fell 0.4% during October, just as had been expected by those economists surveyed by Briefing.com. Orders for the prior month were revised downward to reflect a 0.1% decline. DJ30 +145.24 NASDAQ +34.17 SP500 +17.45 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1700/130 mln/520 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2445/80 mln/280

09:45 am : The major equity averages are up with strong gains this morning. The bounce has come amid broad-based buying, but financials are in the best shape.

The financial sector has already run ahead to a gain greater than 2%. Diversified financial services stocks like Bank of America (BAC 5.84, +0.21), Citigroup (C 29.87, +1.71), and JPMorgan Chase (JPM 33.83, +1.50) are leading the effort. In contrast, consumer staples stocks are lagging.

The defensive-oriented sector is up just 0.6%, or about half of what the broad market has thus far achieved, as the likes of Procter & Gamble (PG 64.83, +0.17) and Kraft (KFT 36.64, +0.14) display only limited strength. DJ30 +139.94 NASDAQ +25.27 SP500 +15.78 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +17.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +32.10. Stock futures suggest that the S&P 500 will start today's trade with a gain of more than 1%, which would make for a strong extension of the heady gains scored last week, when the broad market bounced more than 7% for its best weekly performance in more than three years. Efforts to extend the climb come as many market participants find encouragement in the efforts of Europe's leaders to shore up conditions there. That said, buying has likely been compounded by those looking to chase the market's recent gains. There are a couple of economic reports on deck for today -- monthly factory orders figures and the latest ISM Service Index, both of which are due at 10:00 AM ET. The latter is more likely than the former to attract the attention of market participants.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +16.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +32.30. Commodities are mostly mixed this morning, but the CRB Index has managed to put together a 0.6% gain. Crude oil prices are up 1.3% to $102.30 per barrel in early pit trade, but natural gas prices have been pressured to $3.52 per MMBtu for a 1.8% loss. As for precious metals, gold is currently down 0.8% to $1738 per ounce, while silver holds a 0.1% gain at $32.73 per ounce.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +17.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +32.80. Reports that the European Central Bank is preparing to inject 1 trillion euros into its financial system for use in bond buying, and that officials in Italy have established a new austerity plan have produced confidence among participants in the region's markets, such that the EuroStoxx 50 is up 1% for the session. Italy's MIB has bounded to a 3.1% gain. Meanwhile, France's CAC has been bid up to a 1.5% gain. Financial outfits BNP Paribas and Societe Generale are leading the effort there. Germany's DAX has advanced 1.0%. Thyssenkrupp and RWE are primary leaders there. Commerzbank has been a drag, though. In Britain, the FTSE has worked its way to a 0.8% gain with help from banking plays Lloyds Group (LYG 1.71, +0.19) and Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS 7.18, +0.43).

Overnight action in Asia took Japan's Nikkei to a 0.6% gain. Fast Retailing offered leadership, as did Fuji Heavy Equipment, Mizuho Financial Group (MFG 2.57, +0.00), and Shizuoka Bank. TDK Corp and Kubota Corp were laggards. Hong Kong's Hang Seng scored a 0.7% gain with help from financial issues. The Shanghai Composite moved in the opposite direction by tumbling to a 1.2% loss. Airline shares were a notable source of weakness.

Note: all ticker quotes reflect pre-market prices.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +16.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +30.80. The upbeat bias that spurred stocks more than 7% higher last week -- the best weekly performance for the S&P 500 in more than three years -- has remained intact over the weekend. As such, stocks are trading with a positive posture ahead of the open. Buying interest this morning has been helped along by reports of progress by Europe's officials in their efforts to shore up fiscal and financial conditions in both the core and periphery of the continent. That news has also garnered support for the euro, which currently leads the greenback by 0.2%. Corporate news is light this morning and the latest dose of data doesn't come until 10:00 AM ET, when monthly factory orders figures and the ISM Services Index are released.

06:48 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +12.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +20.60.

06:48 am : Nikkei...8695.98...+52.20...+0.60%. Hang Seng...19179.69...+139.30...+0.70%.

06:48 am : FTSE...5577.89...+25.60...+0.50%. DAX...6111.31...+30.60...+0.50%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

Phone: +1.708.572.4885
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