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 Post subject: November 28th Monday 2011 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +16.40
PostPosted: Tue Nov 29, 2011 12:33 am 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)

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click on the above image to view today's performance verification

Trade Performance for Today: +16.40 points or $1640 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, all trades were posted real-time in the free #FuturesTrades chat room. Today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs provides details (e.g. time, price, contract size) about each one of my trades from entry to exit along with price action commentary as the trade traversed...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=96&t=1067.

To join our free chat room...registration instructions located at a different forum @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=630

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=145&t=1269

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Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/IMF actions or any important global economic events that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables (key market events) causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that results in swing points and strong continuation price actions. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for my technical analysis. Just as important, these summaries becomes my archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past...something I can not get from my broker statements alone.

U.S. Stocks Rise on Holiday Sales, Optimism Over Europe

Nov. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Bloomberg's Deborah Kostroun reports on the performance of the U.S. equity market today. U.S. stocks rose, snapping a seven-day decline in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, after Thanksgiving retail sales climbed to a record amid speculation European leaders will boost efforts to end the debt crisis.

Stocks Rally On Robust Black Friday Sales

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click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- U.S. stocks posted sharp gains Monday, following reports of strong Black Friday weekend sales and amid optimism that European leaders may be working toward a solution to the continent's debt crisis.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) soared 291 points, or 2.6%, the S&P 500 (SPX) added 34 points, or 2.9%, and the Nasdaq composite (COMP) rose 86 points, or 3.5%. The advance broke a 4-day losing streak for the Dow and seven consecutive days of declines for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.

The rally was broad, with all 30 Dow components gaining ground. All but a small handful of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were also trading higher.

Financials were among the biggest winners, with Morgan Stanley (MS, Fortune 500), Wells Fargo (WFC, Fortune 500), Citigroup (C, Fortune 500), Goldman Sachs (GS, Fortune 500), and JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500) and surging between 2% and 6%.

The mood on Wall Street was cheerful after major retailers reported record sales of $52.4 billion over Black Friday weekend -- up 16% from last year -- according to a survey by the National Retail Federation released Sunday.
Black Friday surge won't change ho-hum outlook

Retailers like Wal-Mart (WMT, Fortune 500), Kohl's (KSS, Fortune 500), Costco (COST, Fortune 500), Target (TGT, Fortune 500), Gap (GPS, Fortune 500) and Home Depot (HD, Fortune 500) were up between 0.5% and 2.5%, while Best Buy (BBY, Fortune 500), Macy's (M, Fortune 500), Tiffany & Co. (TIF) and Saks Inc. (SKS) climbed between 3% and 6%.

"Holiday sales seem to be off to a strong start, and that's providing fuel to the market," said Dave Hinnenkamp, CEO at KDV Wealth Management. "Stocks have been trading down for days now, so this is a bounce on good news, but I wouldn't expect a straight-up rise from here."

Hinnenkamp cautioned that investors will keep a close eye on the debt crisis in Europe, which could continue to spark jerky moves in the market.

"As long at Europe's situation remains unresolved, we could see more volatility," he said. "But once we have some finite news -- a credible plan that deals with the problems rather than tinkering with the symptoms -- we could see an up trend in stocks."
Complete Black Friday coverage

Despite Monday's healthy rise, the major indexes remain in the red for the month and the year. The Dow is down 3.6% in November, and 0.5% for the year. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are off about 5% for the month and year.

Last week, European bond yields spiked following a series of disappointing debt auctions, which further heightened fears of a contagion in the region and sent stocks about 5% lower for the week.
0:00 / 1:15 Strong Cyber Monday? Don't get too excited

Europe's debt crisis: Hinnenkamp is optimistic that European leaders and policymakers will draw up a plan before the end of the year, especially now that Germany is starting to feel the pinch of its neighbors' severe debt struggles.

Last week, Germany, Europe's largest and healthiest economy, sold only €3.6 billion of the €6 billion 10-year bunds it had hoped to auction.

"The situation has been pushed to a point where France and Germany are realizing some of the pressure, whether they want to or not," said Hinnenkamp. "That should give a bit of a push toward a resolution.

On Monday, investors appeared to shrug off a warning by Moody's that the intensifying European debt crisis could lead to a downgrade of the region's sovereign debt.

While it's not new, reports about a coordinated effort to create some type of fiscal union in Europe appear to be lifting sentiment.
Euro stocks rally as eurozone worries ease

Meanwhile, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development called for policies to be put in place immediately to stop the eurozone debt crisis from spreading.

E.U. and U.S. leaders gathered for a summit in Washington on Monday to discuss Europe's crisis, among other issues.

While Europe's debt troubles have remained in the spotlight for months, investors are also worried about the U.S. deficit. Last week, the congressional super committee called it quits without reaching any agreement on debt reduction.

After the closing bell Monday, Fitch Ratings reaffirmed the United States' AAA credit rating but cut its oulook to negative from stable in the wake of the super committee's failure. The revised outlook presents a 50% chance that Fitch will downgrade the actual rating in the next two years.

Follwoing the summer's debt ceiling debacle, Standard and Poor's lowered the U.S. rating to AA-plus from the perfect AAA in August, and said its outlook was negative.

World markets: European stocks rallied and closed sharply higher Monday. Britain's FTSE 100 (UKX) jumped 2.9%, the DAX (DAX) in Germany soared 4.6% and France's CAC 40 (CAC40) climbed 4.9%.

Asian markets ended higher. The Shanghai Composite (SHCOMP) ticked up 0.1%, while the Hang Seng (HSI) in Hong Kong added 2% and Japan's Nikkei (N225) rose 1.6%.

Companies: Shares of Amazon (AMZN, Fortune 500) jumped after the online retailer said it sold four times more Kindles during this Black Friday weekend than the same period last year.
0:00 / 02:59 Augmented reality revamps online shoppin

Apple (APPL) shares also rose after the retailer saw strong Black Friday sales, with reports showing that customers bought 14.8 iPads per hour, up 68% year-over-year. Customers bought 10.1 Macs per hour, up 23% from 2010.

Economy: New home sales rose 1.3% to an annual rate of 307,000 in October. Economists were expecting the annual rate to come in at 312,000.

Currencies and commodities: The dollar slumped against the euro and the British pound, but edged higher versus the Japanese yen.

Oil for January delivery jumped $1.44 to settle at $98.21 a barrel.

Gold futures for December delivery rose $25.10 to settle at $1,710.80 an ounce.

Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury ended little changed, and the yield held steady at 1.97%.

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Market Update

4:30 pm : A big bounce by Europe's bourses brought about a barrage of buying interest this morning. For the most part, the major averages held the ensuing gains -- some bailed out of their positions in the final hour, but a last minute squeeze lifted stocks at the close.

Market participants in Europe were encouraged by a new eurozone fiscal pact that could make budget discipline legally binding and enforceable, along with word that the IMF is devising a lending plan for Italy, though the latter story was refuted. France's CAC climbed more than 5%, while Germany's DAX advanced well in excess of 4%. Strength throughout the region gave the EuroStoxx 50 a gain greater than 3%.

The display of such positive sentiment in the otherwise precarious continent was welcomed by domestic markets, which have been stuck in a downtrend for more than a week. In fact, seven straight losses for the S&P 500 resulted in a cumulative loss of almost 8%.

The troubles of Europe have long overshadowed corporate news reports and even economic data, but the improvement in the market's mood made it easier to give attention to positive nature of early holiday shopping reports. Record spending levels this past weekend suggest that consumer headwinds might not be as stiff as many had feared. The SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT 50.17, +1.67) settled more than 3% higher.

Data was limited to the latest new home sales numbers, which showed that sales during October hit an annualized rate of 307,000. That is slightly less than what had been expected, but up slightly from the downwardly revised pace that was posted in the prior month. The report failed to influence broad market trade, but shares of homebuilders set session highs not long after its release. Homebuilders scored a gain of nearly 4% on the session, as measured by the SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB 15.51, +0.55).

Buying interest was certainly broad, but natural resource plays sported the strongest gains. They held their heady gains even after several key commodities pulled back in afternoon trade, causing the CRB Commodity Index to settle well off of its session high with a 0.8% gain.

Commodities gains were partly challenged by the greenback's effort to gain ground against competing currencies -- the dollar cut its loss to 0.5%, about half of what it was at session's open, by day's end partly because interest in the euro had waned.

Advancing Sectors: Materials +3.6%, Energy +3.6%, Tech +3.5%, Industrials +3.3%, Consumer Discretionary +3.0%, Financials +3.0%, Health Care +2.7%, Telecom +2.1%, Consumer Staples +1.5%, Utilities +1.3%
Declining Sectors: (None)DJ30 +291.23 NASDAQ +85.83 NQ100 +3.4% R2K +4.8% SP400 +3.5% SP500 +33.88 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2130/1.60 bln/452 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2600/959 mln/496

3:30 pm : It was a quiet afternoon for the precious metals, as both gold and silver traded in modest ranges. Neither metal reacted to the bounce seen in the dollar. Gold futures gained 1.6% to settle at $1710.80 per ounce, while silver futures rallied for 3.9% to end at $32.20 per ounce.

The pullback in the dollar did, however, weigh on crude oil futures. Futures extended a late-morning sell-off all the way into afternoon, where they put in lows at $97.13. They did managed to retrace some of that sell-off, but closed well below overnight highs at $100.74 per barrel. On the day, crude oil gained 1.5% to close at $98.12 per barrel. Natural gas shed 3.9% to finish at $3.52 per MMBtu. Futures were pressured by forecasts for warmer-than-average temps across the country.DJ30 +251.80 NASDAQ +74.42 SP500 +28.56 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2088/1.2 bln/474 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2570/585.6 mln/545

3:00 pm : Stocks have drifted downward to an afternoon low, but the major equity averages continue to boast big gains for the day. There still isn't a single sector with a gain of less than 1%, but natural resource plays, namely basic materials stocks and energy issues, continue to outperform as they sport gains well in excess of 3%.

The euro is now at its lowest level of the session. It had been up almost 1% against the greenback this morning, but it was most recently quoted at $1.330 for a gain of just 0.1%. On the occasion that the euro has moved lower, so too has the stock market.

With the stock market at its lowest level of the afternoon, Treasuries have successfully turned higher to help the benchmark 10-year Note poke into positive territory, even if by a single tick. DJ30 +267.28 NASDAQ +77.74 SP500 +30.71 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2135/1.04 bln/430 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2635/485 mln/440

2:30 pm : Stocks continue to ride their gains in afternoon trade. The major averages opened sharply higher then added steadily to their initial advance, but have since entered into a sideways drift. As things currently stand, the S&P 500 is not only headed for its first advance in seven sessions, but it is on pace for its best single-session performance since a 3.4% surge on October 27.DJ30 +292.39 NASDAQ +82.17 SP500 +33.41 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2145/965 mln/415 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2655/450 mln/420

2:00 pm : Treasuries had been trimming their losses, but recently balked. In turn, the benchmark 10-year Note is back to trading with a double-digit tick loss. That has its yield back at 2.0%. The recent upturn by Treasuries came as stocks extended the low end of their afternoon trading range.DJ30 +291.20 NASDAQ +80.50 SP500 +32.95 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2160/885 mln/385 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2680/415 mln/375

1:30 pm : Stocks had been drifting to the lower end of their morning and early afternoon trading range, which spanned about five points over the course of three hours or so, but they recently ticked higher to reclaim some of the forfeited gains. The major market averages aren't quite back to session highs, however.DJ30 +308.94 NASDAQ +85.23 SP500 +35.16 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2160/810 mln/370 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2685/375 mln/360

1:00 pm : Market participants pressured the stock market for seven straight sessions for a cumulative loss of almost 8%, but the belief that progress is being made to restore financial conditions in Europe has spurred a relief rally.

Although some have said that the stories are just rumors, reports have suggested that efforts are underway to provide loan to support Italy and that a new eurozone fiscal pact could make budget discipline legally binding and enforceable. Bourses in Europe all bounced sharply, driving the EuroStoxx 50 to a gain well in excess of 3%.

Positive cues from abroad were complemented by reports that early holiday shopping hit record levels, suggesting that conditions among consumers might not be as bad as had been feared. Domestic stocks sprinted higher at the open of trade to a gain greater than 3%. The concerted, broad-based buying effort gave advancing volume a 50-to-1 advantage over declining volume on the NYSE. Stocks have since eased off of session highs, but the market's posture remains decidedly positive at mid-session.

The euro has done a rather poor job of maintaining its gain against the greenback. At the open of trade it had boasted a gain of just about 1%, but now the euro is clinging to a mere gain of 0.2% to $1.332.

With the dollar cutting its loss, many commodities are being clipped. That has caused the CRB Commodity Index to pull back to a 0.5% gain after it had been up 1.5% this morning.

Data has been limited to new home sales numbers for October. They hit an annualized rate of 307,000, which is slightly less than what had been expected, but up slightly from the downwardly revised pace that was posted in the prior month. DJ30 +275.95 NASDAQ +77.25 SP500 +31.54 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2160/765 mln/375 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2695/350 mln/335

12:30 pm : Stocks have eased to the lower end of their recent trading range, leaving the broad market to trade with a gain that is only slightly less than 3%. Advancing share volume continues to outnumber declining share volume by more than 50-to-1 on the NYSE.DJ30 +290.67 NASDAQ +84.36 SP500 +33.81 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2160/680 mln/355 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2745/315 mln/290

12:00 pm : Crude oil prices have been pared in recent trade. The energy component had been comfortably above $99 per barrel earlier this morning, but it has since pulled back to trade at $98.25 per barrel, which still makes for a nice gain of about 1.5%.

Even though oil has surrendered some of its gain, energy stocks continue to trade near session highs, boasting a 4% gain, which makes it one of the best performing sectors this session. DJ30 +306.45 NASDAQ +86.25 SP500 +35.42 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2160/610 mln/335 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2750/285 mln/265

11:30 am : Stocks continue to drift along session highs, riding heady gains. The tone of trade has been positive sine the open, thanks largely to renewed interest abroad, where many of the major bourses of the world have bounced on the back of speculation that leaders in Europe are making progress in their efforts to restore fiscal and financial conditions in their home region.

Despite the increased sense of confidence in Europe's efforts, the euro has handed over a sizable portion of its gain against the greenback. It is now up just 0.3% to $1.333. DJ30 +313.52 NASDAQ +88.65 SP500 +37.35 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2165/545 mln/310 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2750/250 mln/245

11:00 am : Gains are consolidating as stocks move sideways following an early session sprint that has left the broad market riding a 3% gain.

Underlying strength remains broad, such that every single sector continues to sport a gain of almost 2% or more -- utilities and consumer staples, both defensive in nature, are relative laggards with gains of 1.9% and 1.7%, respectively. Those gains have been doubled by natural resource plays like materials and energy stocks, which are currently the top two performing sectors. DJ30 +299.29 NASDAQ +84.62 SP500 +35.32 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2160/410 mln/280 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2765/200 mln/205

10:30 am : Most commodities are rallying alongside the equity market. In turn, the CRB Commodity Index is sporting a 1.5% gain.

Among the more closely watched commodities, gold prices are up 1.7% to $1714 per ounce, but silver is up an even more impressive 3.5% to $32.10 per ounce.

In the energy complex, oil prices are up 2.4% to $99.10 per barrel. However, natural gas prices have been unable to get anything positive going. They opened pit trade flat and have since descended to $3.57 per MMBtu for a 2.8% loss. DJ30 +324.46 NASDAQ +87.57 SP500 +37.64 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2150/280 mln/240 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2745/150 mln/165

10:00 am : The slope of the stock market's opening climb has softened in recent trade, but the climb continues. As such, the stock market now sits at its morning high.

New home sales numbers for October were just released. They hit an annualized rate of 307,000, which is slightly less than the rate of 312,000 that had been expected, on average, among economists polled by Briefing.com. However, it is a slight pickup from the downwardly revised pace of 303,000 that was posted in the prior month. DJ30 +302.74 NASDAQ +83.75 SP500 +36.56 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2140/111 mln/170 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2690/78 mln/105

09:45 am : The broad market is up sharply in the opening minutes of trade as stocks surge in a relief rally that has followed seven straight losses. During the course of those seven sessions stocks slid almost 8%.

The combination of broad market strength and reports of strong consumer spending this past weekend, which is widely regarded as the start of the holiday shopping season, have helped retailers put together some of the strongest gains in the early going. The SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT 50.51, +2.01) is currently up more than 4%. DJ30 +292.67 NASDAQ +77.74 SP500 +34.28 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +32.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +52.70. After an extended streak of losses, things are looking up for stocks this morning. Buying ahead of the open has been spurred by renewed strength among overseas markets, which are responding positively to recent efforts, some rumored and some confirmed, to restore fiscal and financial conditions in Europe. Improved sentiment in the continent has also helped take the euro higher, such that it currently sports a 0.8% gain against the greenback.

Although corporate news has been sluggish this morning, many market participants are also taking into account reports that early holiday spending during the past weekend hit record levels. There hasn't been any domestic data released this morning, but at 10:00 AM ET participants will get their hands on the most recent new home sales numbers.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +32.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +54.00. Commodities are on the climb this morning, giving the CRB Index a 1.5% gain. Among its primary components, oil prices are up 2.8% to $99.50 per barrel in the opening minutes of pit trade. Natural gas prices are mired near the neutral line, keeping prices near $3.66 per MMBtu. As for precious metals, gold is up 2.0% to $1719 per ounce, while silver is sporting a 3.5% gain at $32.10 per ounce.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +30.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +51.50. Europe's bourses are rallying after suffering several sharp losses in recent sessions. The effort has been helped along by hope that officials in the region are progressing in their efforts to restore fiscal and financial conditions. Among the most recent rumors, the IMF is working on loan to support Italy, while a batch of new bonds from Germany and other highly rated eurozone countries is being considered. There are also reports of a new eurozone fiscal pact that could make budget discipline legally binding and enforceable by European authorities. Less attention has been paid to a reminder from Moody's that Europe's sovereign crisis threatens EU sovereign ratings. Germany's DAX is up 3.8% with Deutsche Bank (DB 35.76, +3.42) and Commerzbank leading the way. Banking plays are also paving the way for Britain's FTSE, which is presently up 2.2%. France's CAC has climbed 4.2% in an effort that has taken all 40 of its components into positive territory.

Overnight action in Asia was strong, resulting in a 1.6% gain for Japan's Nikkei. Mitsui Mining and Mitsumi Electric topped the list of advancing issues. Olympus lagged as it resumed its downtrend. Hong Kong's Hang Seng advanced to a 2.0% gain. Banking issues provided part of the lift as Industrial & Commercial Bank and Agricultural Bank of China both bounced in excess of 3%. Many natural resource plays also outperformed. Mainland China's Shanghai Composite had a relatively underwhelming session as it settled only 0.3% higher.

Note: ticker quotes reflect pre-market prices.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +30.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +49.70. Following seven straight losses for the S&P 500, market participants are pushing back into stocks. The shift in sentiment comes as many overseas markets rally amid rumor-driven hope that efforts to restore financial conditions in Europe are progressing. Reports regarding early holiday spending have also been positive. There isn't much else going on today. Corporate news is light and monthly new home sales numbers stand as the only dose of data for today. New home sales numbers are due at 10:00 AM ET.

06:50 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +28.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +49.80.

06:50 am : Nikkei...8287.49...+127.50...+1.60%. Hang Seng...18037.81...+348.30...+2.00%.

06:50 am : FTSE...5271.30...+106.70...+2.10%. DAX...5668.46...+175.60...+3.20%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

Phone: +1.708.572.4885
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