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 Post subject: November 18th Friday 2011 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +17.70
PostPosted: Fri Nov 18, 2011 11:37 pm 
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Joined: Sat Jan 10, 2009 2:06 pm
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)

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click on the above image to view today's performance verification

Trade Performance for Today: +17.70 points or $1770 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, all trades were posted real-time in the free #FuturesTrades chat room. Today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs provides details (e.g. time, price, contract size) about each one of my trades from entry to exit along with price action commentary as the trade traversed...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=96&t=1060.

To join our free chat room...registration instructions located at a different forum @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=630

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=145&t=1269

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Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/IMF actions or any important global economic events that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables (key market events) causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that results in swing points and strong continuation price actions. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for my technical analysis. Just as important, these summaries becomes my archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past...something I can not get from my broker statements alone.

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Market Update

4:30 pm : Stocks slogged along for almost the entire session. They ultimately finished flat. The lack of action made for an unexciting finish to the stock market's worst week in more than a month.

Premarket posture was positive. Participants responded to the stabilization of yields on the debt of such trouble spots as Spain and Italy, renewed strength in the euro, and a climb by Europe's bourses from their session lows. Buying in Europe eventually lost momentum, leaving the region's major averages to settle with varied losses.

An absence of follow through buying in Europe undermined this morning's improved tone. In turn, stocks slipped at the open of U.S. trade and never really established a direction of trade. Movement in the S&P 500 was partly limited because of resistance near 1225 and support at the weekly low just beneath 1210.

Consistent with trade earlier this week, stocks lacked a legitimate form of leadership. That said, financials managed to put together their best performance of the week by advancing 0.5% as a group. They still shed more than 5% for the week, though.

Tech stocks, which make up the largest sector by market weight, lagged once again. With a 0.7% slide the sector logged its third straight loss. Tech stocks collectively fell about 4% this week.

The expiration of monthly options likely added to the market's chop. Option-related trade helped inflate share volume on the NYSE in the absence of market-moving corporate news and economic data. Share volume on the Big Board still didn't break 1 billion, though.

Action on Friday made for a rather boring follow-up to the sharp losses suffered in the prior two sessions. Those back-to-back declines combined for a drop of more than 3%, which made up the bulk of the near 4% weekly slide suffered by stocks.

Stocks fell in excess of 2% on Thursday as a technical breakdown brought about a barrage of selling that sent the stock market to its lowest level in nearly a month. Participants became less interested in a generally pleasing batch of data that featured the least weekly initial jobless claims tally since April (388,000) and better-than-expected housing starts and building permits for October. Housing starts hit an annualized rate of 628,000, while building permits set an annualized pace of 653,000. However, the Philadelphia Fed Survey for November slipped more than expected to 3.6 from 8.7 in the prior month.

The stock market's slide on Wednesday came amid a confluence of events, including a retreat by the euro and a reminder from analysts at Fitch that domestic banks could be hurt if the fiscal and financial problems of Europe worsen. Analysts at Moody's added to the specter of contagion by downgrading credit ratings of 10 banks in Germany, which is Europe's strongest, most diversified economy. A lack of leadership also left stocks with little chance of fighting off the efforts of sellers. Trade was hardly influenced by stronger-than-expected 0.7% increase in monthly industrial production. Data for the day also featured a 0.1% decline in the October Consumer Price Index (CPI) and a 0.1% increase in core CPI, as had been generally expected.

Producer price data also proved cool when it was released on Tuesday. During October producer prices were down 0.3% and core prices were flat. Neither was too different than what had been widely expected. Overall retail sales for October proved strong with a 0.5% climb, but sales less autos were even more impressive with a 0.6% increase. Despite the generally pleasing nature of the data, action among stocks was more closely correlated with the euro, given its nature as a barometer of sentiment in Europe. Although the euro still suffered a loss that day, its move up from its session low helped lift stocks to their only gain of the week.

The euro opened the week with a slump, reflecting a weaker bias in Europe, even though Italy had approved new austerity measures and held another successful debt offering during the weekend. Given concerns about Europe's stability, many bank stocks were pressured for fear of their exposure to the continent.

With so much focus on Europe and the sensitivity to headlines out of the region, earnings matter little to overall market sentiment. Still, it is worth noting both Lowe's (LOW 23.50, +0.39) and Home Depot (HD 37.88, +0.26, +0.26) posted better-than-expected bottom lines. Dell (DELL 14.90, -0.02) also had an upside surprise, but that was overshadowed by its tepid forecast. Wal-Mart (WMT 57.23, +0.50) earnings actually came short of what Wall Street had expected.

Outside of earnings, IBM (IBM 185.24, -0.49) got some attention after it was learned that billionaire investor Warren Buffett has been acquiring shares in the company for the past month. Chevron (CVX 97.88, -2.20) and Transocean (RIG 47.47, -1.46) were cast in a negative light amid concerns about their role in a recent oil leak. DJ30 +25.43 NASDAQ -15.49 NQ100 -0.8% R2K +0.1% SP400 -0.1% SP500 -0.48 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1243/1.74 bln/1263 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1693/956 mln/1287

3:30 pm : The CRB Commodity Index was up solidly this morning, but rolled over with energy prices to end the day with a 0.7% loss.

Oil prices had been up about 1% in early pit trade, but the energy component tumbled shortly thereafter. It traded as low as $96.70 per barrel before trimming its loss. It settled the session at $97.41 per barrel with a 1.4% loss. Natural gas prices closed pit trade at $3.31 per MMBtu for a 2.6% gain after they had been bid slightly higher in the early going.

As for precious metals, gold prices spent the session holding on to a modest gain. It finished at $1724.50 per ounce for a 0.2% gain. Silver was much more impressive in its performance. Prices advanced 2.9% to $32.47 per ounce. DJ30 +31.06 NASDAQ -13.50 SP500 +0.12 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1245/1.33 bln/1240 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1640/670 mln/1320

3:00 pm : Lackluster action continues as stocks enter the final hour of the session. For the most part, trade has been unexciting since the open. That said, the sidways chop has allowed for the consolidation of recent losses, which have stocks on pace for a weekly slide of about 3.5%, or their poorest weekly performance since September.DJ30 +46.62 NASDAQ -12.00 SP500 +1.14 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1300/1.23 bln/1175 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1765/625 mln/1175

2:30 pm : The market's recent effort to push higher has lost momentum, leaving it to resume its afternoon chop. The market's inability to sustain a bounce has it headed for a weekly loss of 3.5%, which would make for its worst weekly performances since a 6.5% slump one week in late September.DJ30 +52.33 NASDAQ -9.31 SP500 +2.39 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1215/1.12 bln/1235 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1690/580 mln/1250

2:00 pm : Stocks have been trending higher in recent trade, but the broad market has yet to make its way back to its best level of the day and the Nasdaq still isn't even net neutral on the session.

Materials stocks look the strongest in the wake of the market's recent upturn. As a group, materials stocks are now up 1.0%, led by the likes of Mosaic (MOS 53.49, +2.74) and CF Industries (CF 154.21, +6.02). However, the sector's lack of market weight has limited its ability to offer a legitimate form of leadership.

Meanwhile, the highly-influential financial sector has worked its way up to a 0.6% gain with help from CME Group (CME 249.79, +11.74) and Principal Group (PFG 249.82, +11.77). DJ30 +45.78 NASDAQ -9.30 SP500 +2.50 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1300/1.04 bln/1130 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1785/545 mln/1125

1:30 pm : Treasuries are drifting lower. In fact, the benchmark 10-year Note is now down little more than a half of a point, which has been enough to put its yield a couple of basis points above 2.0% for a session high.

At the same time, the euro continues to slowly reclaim the gains that it had forfeited earlier. The euro is now up 0.5% to $1.353. DJ30 +42.49 NASDAQ -7.66 SP500 +2.08 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1150/965 mln/1275 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1520/515 mln/1390

1:00 pm : Stocks slipped at the open and have lacked direction ever since. The choppy action has come amid the expiration of monthly options, which have invited additional trading activity.

The tone ahead of the open had been moderately positive as traders assessed strength in the euro and a climb by Europe's bourses from their session lows. However, sellers challenged the bias in the opening minutes, disrupting the market's direction and causing stocks to trade in choppy fashion. Buyers returned mid-morning to offer some support, but the broad market's loss of momentum near resistance levels has caused interest to fade.

Despite the lackluster action and the fact that only a modicum of corporate announcements and data has been released today, share volume has been progressing at a strong clip. The increased activity is owed to traders exercising monthly options ahead of their expiration. Options-related activity is likely playing a part in the market's chop.

This session's choppy action also comes amid a lack of leadership, which has been a recurring theme this week. Tech stocks, which collectively make up the largest sector by market weight, are down 0.5%, making them one of the poorer performing sectors. Meanwhile, the energy sector, which is home to many heavyweights, is down 0.6%. Weakness in those two sectors is being partially offset by the financial sector, which is up only 0.2%. DJ30 +20.28 NASDAQ -11.46 SP500 -0.53 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1135/905 mln/1255 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1440/485 mln/1455

12:30 pm : Share volume on the NYSE is fast approaching a half billion. The increase in activity comes as participants exercise monthly options ahead of expiration. Overall share volume on the Big Board during recent sessions has been somewhat anemic and well below the 1 billion shares that have been averaged for the past 50 days.

Options are likely adding to the market's volatility today. Since the start action has been choppy and without any clear trend or direction. DJ30 +15.51 NASDAQ -12.67 SP500 -1.25 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1035/800 mln/1345 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1275/445 mln/1600

12:00 pm : Recent efforts to take stocks lower have left the S&P 500 to trade at the neutral line and the Nasdaq in negative territory. In contrast, the Dow is holding on to a narrow gain. It has been helped by the likes of Walt Disney Co. (DIS 35.63, +0.48), Alcoa (AA 9.72, +0.10), and Boeing (BA 67.36, +1.27).DJ30 +32.11 NASDAQ -9.01 SP500 +0.65 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1225/700 mln/1125 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1635/405 mln/1210

11:30 am : Financials are showing strength after a slow start. The sector has climbed ahead to a 0.7% gain, thanks to leadership from Citigroup (C 26.42, +0.42).

Despite the financial sector's relative strength today, three losses of at least 2% earlier in the week have it on pace for a weekly loss of almost 6%. That threatens to be the sector's worst weekly performance since a near 10% weekly drop in September.

Bank of America (BAC 5.80, -0.01), which is a laggard today, has basically been a drag on the broader financial sector all week. The stock is down nearly 7% in five sessions. DJ30 +53.31 NASDAQ -1.51 SP500 +3.38 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1280/630 mln/1010 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1810/375 mln/1035

11:00 am : Stocks have begun to drift a bit following a recent bounce that took the broad market to a session high for a modest gain. The move actually put the S&P 500 within reach of initial resistance near its 50-day exponential moving average and last week's low.

The market's recent upturn coincides with efforts by the euro to reclaim gains. The currency is now up 0.4% against the greenback, but that's still less than half of the gain that it had sported at its session high. DJ30 +63.65 NASDAQ +1.52 SP500 +5.10 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1230/505 mln/1010 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1770/325 mln/1010

10:30 am : Crude oil prices opened pit trade around $100 per barrel, but the energy component has reversed course to trade with a 0.3% loss at $98.60 per barrel. Natural gas prices have also tumbled since trading with a modest gain in the early going; they were last quoted with a 1.3% loss at $3.50 per MMBtu.

Precious metals have done a far better job of preserving their gains. As such, gold prices are up 0.3% at $1725 per ounce, while silver sports a 1.7% gain at $32 per ounce.

In the backdrop, the greenback has been making up ground against the euro. In turn, the Dollar Index is now down a relatively tame 0.3% today, but still up about 1.4% for the week. DJ30 +23.34 NASDAQ -10.03 SP500 -0.04

10:00 am : Stocks trying to push higher following a slip off of the open. Overall action remains relatively mixed, however.

No real reaction has been made to news that leading indicators for October, just released, increased by 0.9%, which exceeds the 0.6% increase that had been broadly anticipated. DJ30 +43.21 NASDAQ -6.42 SP500 +2.86 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1135/150 mln/850 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1695/200 mln/885

09:45 am : Despite a positive posture in premarket action, stocks have come under pressure in the opening minutes of trade. That has left the major equity averages to move in mixed fashion.

Energy stocks are showing early leadership, however. The sector is already ahead to a 0.8% gain as shares of oil and gas services players and integrated issues push higher. Their strength comes even though oil prices have completely forfeited their morning gains to trade flat at $98.90 per barrel. DJ30 +32.01 NASDAQ -4.91 SP500 +1.99 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +7.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +7.50. Stocks enter Friday facing a week-to-date loss of almost 4%, or what is shaping up to be their worst week since September. However, a moderately positive tone ahead of the open has stocks positioned for a higher start. The improved posture comes as Europe's bourses bounce off of their session lows and yields stabilize on the debt of such trouble spots as Spain and Italy. The euro is also garnering support; it was last quoted with a 0.8% gain at $1.357. As has been the case for months, the magnitude of Europe's problems will continue to keep the market's attention. Distractions are limited since corporate news has been generally inconsequential, at least as it pertains to the broad market, and leading indicators (10:00 AM ET) make up the only data on tap for today. Although news flow has slowed, stocks could see some increased volatility with the expiration of monthly options.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +9.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +11.00. Commodities are benefiting from broad buying interest this morning. That has the CRB Index up 0.4%. Among its more closely tracked components, crude oil prices are up 0.9% to $99.80 per barrel in the opening minutes of pit trade. Natural gas prices are up a more modest 0.2% at $3.55 per MMBtu. As for precious metals, gold prices are up 0.2% to $1724 per ounce, while silver prices sport a 1.6% gain at $32 per ounce after their prior session slide.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +10.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +11.70. A verbal push by European Central Bank President Draghi to make progress in the completion and implementation of bailout plans alongside the stabilization of yields on the debt of trouble spots Spain and Italy have helped improve the mood among market participants abroad. In turn, Europe's bourses recently worked their way higher, but the move is beginning to be challenged. Still, Germany's DAX is up 0.2% after it had been down markedly earlier in its session. Deutsche Boerse has been primary source of support -- the stock is up more than 5%. According to Germany's latest data, producer prices in October were up 5.3%, which is slightly less than the 5.5% increase that had been reported for the same period one year ago. France's CAC is currently flat after it had been down about 1% at its session low. Vivendi and Suez Environnement remain sources of strength. Financial outfits BNP Paribas, Societe Generale, and Credit Agricole are dragging on trade, however. Britain's FTSE is currently off by 0.6%. Capita Group and Fresnillo Plc have been sources of weakness, offsetting strength in names like Man Group and Smith & Nephew.

Asia's major averages mostly moved lower overnight. The pressure left Japan's Nikkei to suffer a 1.2% loss. Olympus led the slide as participants turned on the stock after it had displayed strength in recent sessions. The stock is still up from the multi-year low that it set last week. Hong Kong's Hang Seng shed 1.7%. Financial issues and property plays led that slide. Their weakness came amid data that indicate average property prices in many of China's cities were pressured in October. The decline in property prices comes well after officials in China had begun efforts to temper rising real estate prices. Property-related components of China's Shanghai Composite also traded with weakness, playing a part in the Composite's 1.9% decline.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +9.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +10.00. Improved sentiment in Europe, where the region's major bourses are bouncing after suffering a series of sizable losses, is helping to prop up stock futures. The euro is also up nicely against the greenback, but the foreign currency still enters Friday facing a weekly loss in excess of 1%. The action across the Atlantic comes amid comments from the European Central Bank head that urged governments there to progress toward the completion and implementation of rescue funds. Yields on debt are also easing.

Data is limited to monthly leading indicators at 10:00 AM ET, making for a light economic calendar after a bevy of reports earlier this week. While the lack of data may limit some trading, the expiration of monthly options is likely to invite more action.

06:58 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +5.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +0.30.

06:58 am : Nikkei...8374.91...-104.70...-1.20%. Hang Seng...18491.23...-326.20...-1.70%.

06:58 am : FTSE...5362.41...-60.70...-1.10%. DAX...5812.10...-38.10...-0.70%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

Phone: +1.708.572.4885
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