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 Post subject: November 14th Monday 2011 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +24.10
PostPosted: Mon Nov 14, 2011 10:43 pm 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)

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click on the above image to view today's trading summary

Trade Performance for Today: +24.10 points or $2410 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, all trades were posted real-time in the free #FuturesTrades chat room. Today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs provides details (e.g. time, price, contract size) about each one of my trades from entry to exit along with price action commentary as the trade traversed...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=96&t=1054.

To join our free chat room...registration instructions located at a different forum @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=630

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=145&t=1269

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Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/IMF actions or any important global economic events that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables (key market events) causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that results in swing points and strong continuation price actions. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for my technical analysis. Just as important, these summaries becomes my archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past...something I can not get from my broker statements alone.

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Market Update

4:30 pm : Sellers returned to the fold on Monday to hand stocks sizable losses. Financials led the slide.

Financials fell to a 2.0% loss and were weak since the open of trade, which was relatively rocky. Pressure against the sector was largely rooted in an effort by market participants to pare their positions in bank stocks, given the group's sensitivity to the threats of Europe. Sentiment in Europe seemed to sour during the weekend, resulting in losses for the region's major bourses and a sharply lower day for the euro. Pressure came even though embattled Italy approved new austerity measures and held another successful debt offering.

Tech stocks fought to keep sellers at bay for the first couple of hours, but ultimately succumbed to broad market selling pressure to settle with a 0.6% loss. Even IBM (IBM 187.35, -0.03) surrendered a gain after it had been bid higher on the back of word from billionaire investor Warren Buffett that he has been acquiring shares in the company for the past month.

The economic calendar was entirely empty today and earnings were limited to only a handful of names. Lowe's (LOW 23.50, +0.39) posted an upside earnings surprise and issued mixed guidance, but in-line earnings from J.C. Penney (JCP 32.98, -0.94) were overshadowed by a disappointing forecast.

With so few catalysts for trade today, share volume on the NYSE totaled at paltry 700 million. Over the past 50 days share volume has been closer to 1 billion, on average.

Advancing Sectors: (None)
Declining Sectors: Tech -0.6%, Consumer Staples -0.7%, Consumer Discretionary -0.7%, Health Care -0.7%, Industrials -0.7%, Materials -0.9%, Telecom -1.1%, Utilities -1.2%, Energy -1.2%, Financials -2.0%DJ30 -74.70 NASDAQ -21.53 NQ100 -0.6% R2K -1.6% SP400 -1.1% SP500 -12.07 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 638/1.39 bln/1921 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 720/704 mln/2301

3:30 pm : Precious metals were pressured today by the persistent strength in the dollar. Gold futures ended lower by 0.5% at $1778.40 per ounce, while silver futures shed 1.9% at $34.02 per ounce. Throughout the session gold managed to remain above its overnight lows at $1774.20. Silver, on the other hand, traded to session lows at $33.95 heading into the close of pit trade.

Natural gas futures settled lower by 3.5% at $3.46 per MMBtu. Relatively mild weather across the country is stoking concerns about growing supplies, and that caused futures to close lower for the eighth time in ten sessions. Crude oil settled lower by 0.9% at $98.14 per barrel. Strength in the dollar pressured crude futures.DJ30 -73.45 NASDAQ -20.92 SP500 -14.46 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 599/1.1 bln/1938 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 696/474.5 mln/2355

3:00 pm : The Dow is now at an incremetally new low for the day, while both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq test their session lows. As has been the case all session, financials are dragging things down.

Financials are now off by 2.6%, which makes them the worst performing sector of the session by a considerable margin. Energy stocks are the next worst performing sector, but their loss has not yet encroached upon 2%. While bank stocks are weighing on the financial sector, energy has been mostly hurt by weakness in shares of oil and gas equipment and services stocks. DJ30 -123.25 NASDAQ -29.86 SP500 -16.32 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 610/950 mln/1915 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 660/395 mln/2325

2:30 pm : The broad market is turning lower, but it hasn't yet returned to its daily low. That said, financials are now down 2.3%, which puts them at their worst level of the day. Among financial issues, Bank of New York Mellon (BK 20.61, -0.89), SunTrust (STI 18.49, -0.78), and Citigroup (C 28.20, -1.13) are leading losses.DJ30 -98.91 NASDAQ -22.62 SP500 -13.95 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 645/875 mln/1855 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 700/365 mln/2275

2:00 pm : The stock market's upturn has stalled, leaving it to continue trading with a sizable loss. Weakness is widespread, as has been the case for the past few hours.

Without any data, new announcements from Europe, or meaningful corporate news releases, participation has been paltry. In turn, the pace of trade has been anemic, suppressing share volume. DJ30 -87.90 NASDAQ -18.78 SP500 -13.12 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 635/810 mln/1855 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 715/340 mln/2260

1:30 pm : Stocks are starting to turn upward, but overall losses remain sizable and there still isn't a single sector in positive territory.

However, home improvement retailer Lowe's (LOW 23.42, +0.31) is showing some individual strength in the wake of its latest quarterly report, which was highlighted by an upside earnings surprise. That has helped win support for Home Depot (HD 38.11, +0.05), which is scheduled to report its latest earnings results tomorrow morning. DJ30 -80.83 NASDAQ -19.03 SP500 -11.97 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 600/740 mln/1885 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 630/310 mln/2340

1:00 pm : Stocks are stuck near session lows as market participants pare risk. Selling efforts have focused on financial issues.

Early trade was relatively choppy and generally listless. There wasn't a single sector that was able to make a sustainable bounce, although tech stocks did initially did a good job of keeping sellers at bay. The sector's early refusal to retreat was partly influenced by IBM (IBM 187.66, +0.25), which has been a stock of favor for billionaire investor Warren Buffett in the past month, according to his CNBC interview this morning.

However, broad weakness eventually imbued the tech sector, dragging it into the red with the rest of the market. Now, all 10 major sectors are in the red.

Financials have been a source of weakness all session. The sector is currently down 2.0% as bank stocks are battered. Bank stocks have frequently been among the most sensitive issues in the risk trade, which continues to be influenced by sentiment in Europe. The sensitivity of banks is generally underpinned by uncertainty related to their exposure to the continent's precarious conditions.

Acting as a barometer of confidence in the ability of Europe's leaders to shore up those conditions, the euro is down more than 1% against the greenback today. The downturn basically offsets the back-to-back bounces that it had made from a four-week low last week. DJ30 -94.03 NASDAQ -23.10 SP500 -14.05 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 600/690 mln/1880 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 625/290 mln/2335

12:30 pm : A sudden bout of selling pressure recently dropped the major equity averages for another leg of losses, but stocks have since stabilized to set new session lows. There wasn't any clear catalyst or headline to account for the move, but it coincides with a drop by the euro. The euro was last quoted with a 1.2% loss at $1.360, which puts it at its worst level of the day. Many traders look to the as a barometer of sentiment and confidence in Europe's abilities to handle the precarious fiscal and financial conditions that have threatened the stability of countries in both the periphery and core of the continent.DJ30 -97.17 NASDAQ -23.91 SP500 -14.35 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 645/610 mln/1800 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 680/260 mln/2230

12:00 pm : Stocks have descended to new session lows in recent trade. Overall losses remain relatively contained, though.

Financials continue to have the most damaging impact on trade today. The sector is now down nearly 2% as shares of bank stocks succumb to a spell of pronounced selling pressure. Weakness among banks, whether regional, diversified, or international, has the KBW Bank Index down about 2.2%. DJ30 -65.95 NASDAQ -15.95 SP500 -8.48 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 730/515 mln/1650 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 840/220 mln/2040

11:30 am : Even though stocks have been stuck in negative territory, Treasuries haven't been able to garner much support. That has left the benchmark 10-year Note to muddle along with a modest loss. It should be noted, though, that in observance of Veterans Day the Treasury market was closed this past Friday, when the stock market advanced 2%. So the weakness displayed by Treasuries today is most likely because they are adjusting for the missed action.DJ30 -12.41 NASDAQ -5.54 SP500 -7.16 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 680/455 mln/1680 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 760/195 mln/2090

11:00 am : The Nasdaq recently made a run into positive territory with help from the tech sector, but the move proved unsustainable, causing the tech-rich Nasdaq to rejoin its counterparts in negative territory.

The dollar is one asset that has displayed steady strength today. It is currently up 0.7% against a basket of major foreign currencies, although most of its strength has come against the euro and the sterling pound, both of which are down 1.0% against the greenback. DJ30 -27.62 NASDAQ -7.28 SP500 -9.30 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 680/325 mln/1600 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 710/145 mln/2105

10:35 am : The dollar index is showing some strength this morning and is back near previously hit session highs, which is weighing on commodities this morning.

Crude oil futures have been in the red all session and hit a new session low of $97.20/barrel. In current activity, crude is down 1.5% at $97.47/barrel. Natural gas futures are down 2.3% at $3.61/MMBtu.

Copper is trading 1.5% higher at $3.51/lb, while the rest of the metals complex is trading lower. Gold fell as low as $1774.80/oz earlier in the session and is now down 0.5% at $1779.70/oz. Silver is showing a similar pattern to gold this morning and is currently 1.3% lower at $34.25/oz. Platinum is down just 0.2% at $1643.90/oz.DJ30 -24.75 NASDAQ -1.24 SP500 -5.24 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 739/303 mln/1526 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 727/136 mln/2068

10:00 am : The major equity averages remain in negative territory with modest losses. Financials remain a primary source of weakness -- they are collectively down 1.5%.

Tech is still the only sector displaying any relative strength, but it has been unable to build on that amid broad market weakness. In turn, the sector remains mired near the neutral line. Among tech issues, Google (GOOG 614.30, +5.95) is a top performer, as is IBM (IBM 189.09, +1.71). This morning billionaire investor guru Warren Buffett stated in an interview on CNBC that he has been accumulating shares of IBM during the past quarter. DJ30 -51.31 NASDAQ -10.21 SP500 -8.17 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 745/90 mln/1325 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 875/55 mln/1730

09:45 am : The major equity averages are down with modest losses this morning. Their slip comes amid some broad-based selling. In fact, tech stocks make up the only major sector in positive territory, but they are up just 0.1%. Meanwhile, financials, down 1.3%, are a primary source of early weakness.DJ30 -29.13 NASDAQ -9.93 SP500 -3.93 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -5.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -11.80. Stocks finished last week on a strong note, resulting in a solid weekly gain, but the positive tone has been unable to extend through the weekend. Per usual, market participants are taking their cues from Europe, where many major bourses are in the red amid renewed worries over the ability of officials to wrestle weak fiscal and financial conditions, especially with new leadership in troubled Greece and Italy. Such concern has also implicated the euro, which is currently down 1.0% against the greenback. Without any data on tap and only a handful of earnings reports out, the focus is expected to remain in Europe, which remains a primary source of headline risk for market participants.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -4.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -8.50. The CRB Commodity Index is down 0.3% this morning. Its weakness comes as oil prices decline 0.6% to $98.35 per barrel in the opening minutes of pit trade. Natural gas prices are down a much steeper 2.1% to $3.62 per MMBtu. Among precious metals, gold prices are down 0.4% to $1781 per ounce while silver prices trade at $34.45 per ounce for a 0.6% loss. In the backdrop, the dollar is up 0.6% against a collection of competing currencies. Its advance comes amid soured sentiment related to Europe's efforts to shore up its fiscal and financial system.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -2.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -4.80. Stock futures have improved their position in recent minutes. The move coincides with a reduction in pressure against Europe's major bourses. Germany's DAX is now down 1.1%. Deutsche Boerse, RWE AG, and Allianz SE are among its poorest performers. Adidas is leading a limited number of names in positive territory. In France, the CAC has fallen to a 1.2% loss. Not one of its components is currently trading in positive territory. Veolia Environnement is in the worst shape, but Alcatel-Lucent (ALU pre-market: 1.97, -0.02) has managed to limit its loss to only a fractional move lower. Britain's FTSE is off by 0.5%. Its loss has been led by the likes of Pearson Plc and Schroders Plc. Banking plays Standard Chartered and Barclays (BCS pre-market: 11.28, -0.16) are also displaying outsized losses. However, Admiral Group, Burberry Group, and Vodafone (VOD pre-market: 28.99, +0.10) are showing strength.

As for action in Asia, Japan's Nikkei climbed 1.1% in the new week's first round of trade. Olympus shares surged 17% in a move that marked a reversal from what had seemed like a free-fall. Prior to the bounce the stock had fallen about 80% in one month. Hong Kong's Hang Seng jumped 1.9% in its latest round of action. Real estate and property plays provided leadership. Meanwhile, mainland China's Shanghai Composite scored a 1.9% gain of its own on Monday. Materials plays, especially miners, were in particularly strong favor.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -4.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -7.50. Reflecting the market's fickleness, the risk on-risk off trade continues as participants track action in Europe, where many of the region's major bourses are down in excess of 1%. Little encouragement has been taken from news that Italy approved additional austerity measures during the weekend then held another successful debt offering this morning. Earnings haven't been all that exciting this morning. Only a handful of names are out this morning, but both Lowe's (LOW pre-market: 23.20, +0.09) and J.C. Penney (JCP pre-market: 33.95, +0.03) are among them. Lowe's posted an upside surprise, but issued a relatively mixed outlook, while J.C. Penney had in-line results and issued downside guidance. Shares of both companies are up narrowly ahead of the open. The economic calendar is empty today.

06:48 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -5.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -16.50.

06:48 am : Nikkei...8603.70...+89.20...+1.10%. Hang Seng...19508.18...+371.00...+1.90%.

06:48 am : FTSE...5509.42...-36.00...-0.70%. DAX...5997.43...-59.60...-1.00%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

Phone: +1.708.572.4885
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